The Jets Just Made a Mistake

[TheElectricCompany]

I'm really struggling to see the Giants move.

I know we love our value charts, but the Jets had to give up 600 extra points to move to #3. 

Colts likely know that there will be a QB blitz early, with 3 possible off the board before they pick, so an elite player at other positions should be available.  Can you say the same by moving from #2 to #12? 

With the Giants reasonably considering QB, I just don't see any "fair" deals happening, they'll bury us. 

Edited March 18, 2018 by TheElectricCompany

[Bangarang]

21 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

First of all, Gettleman is not going to "bend over" Beane and the Bills. Gettleman was Beane's mentor for years. They're very close. Not to mention Gettleman started his scouting career with the Buffalo Bills in the late 80's. So it's personal for Gettleman, fwiw. 

 

But not only is it personal, bending over another NFL team in a trade is simply bad for business. Otherwise, good luck ever making a deal with that team ever again.

 

Gettleman’s job is to make the Giants into the best team possible. He has all the leverage here and I’m sure he’ll take advantage of it. And the value chart has its time and place but I think when teams are trying to move up to the top of the draft for a QB then it’s not as simple as adding up the pick values and getting them as close as possible.

Edited March 18, 2018 by Bangarang

[JMF2006]

21 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Which again, would be dumb and grounds for inevitable firing.

 

It would be two years in a row this regime passed on QBs and they just traded their starter. 

 

They traded the second string RB that just happens to take snaps where the QB lines up   (and they got the last pick of the second round)

1 minute ago, Bangarang said:

 

Gettleman’s job is to make the Giants into the best team possible. He has all the leverage here and I’m sure he’ll take advantage of it.

 

Beane also has the option of saying no.

[Bangarang]

 

1 minute ago, JMF2006 said:

Beane also has the option of saying no.

 

Well obviously

[Wayne Arnold]

9 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

Gettleman’s job is to make the Giants into the best team possible. He has all the leverage here and I’m sure he’ll take advantage of it. And the value chart has its time and place but I think when teams are trying to move up to the top of the draft for a QB then it’s not as simple as adding up the pick values and getting them as close as possible.

 

Did you read the rest of my post? The Giants only have 5 draft picks. You don't think they'd want to add three more picks to the first three rounds by only dropping five spots?

[BuffaloMatt]

21 hours ago, BUFFALOBART said:

Assuming that the Bills improve their W/L record next year, a coveted QB pick would likely not be available to them in '19. The time to go all in, is NOW

OK. Play GM. What's your move?

[Bangarang]

8 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Did you read the rest of my post? The Giants only have 5 draft picks. You don't think they'd want to add three more picks to the first three rounds by only dropping five spots?

 

I’m sure the Giants would like to add more picks. Did you not read my post and how I feel about the value chart?

Edited March 18, 2018 by Bangarang

[TheElectricCompany]

9 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Did you read the rest of my post? The Giants only have 5 draft picks. You don't think they'd want to add three more picks to the first three rounds by only dropping five spots?

If you added up all the picks in the chart, I would bet it is quite a bit more expensive to go from 12 -> 7 -> 2 through 2 different teams, than going from 12 -> 2 with only one team. 

 

Edited March 18, 2018 by TheElectricCompany

[Wayne Arnold]

1 minute ago, TheElectricCompany said:

If you added up all the picks in the chart, I would bet it is quite a bit more expensive to go from 12 -> 7 -> 2 through 2 different teams, than going from 12 -> 2 with only one team. 

 

I don't think so. Offering the Giants the #7 pick would be much more appealing than having to go all the way back to #12.

 

6 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

I’m sure the Giants would like to add more picks. Did you not read my post and how I feel about the value chart?

 

Is there a different chart we should be referring to?

[TheElectricCompany]

4 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

I don't think so. Offering the Giants the #7 pick would be much more appealing than having to go all the way back to #12.

 

Of course it would, but we have to get there first, and do the Bucs even want to move? 

It looks like it would take 1300 points to move from 12 to 2. The Jets had to pay ~600 extra to move from 6 to 3. 

Let's put a little on top of that and say it takes ~2000+ to go from 12 to 2.

You add two teams into the mix, trying to go from 12 to 7 to 2, and I bet its more like ~2300+. 

Edited March 18, 2018 by TheElectricCompany

[Bangarang]

10 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

Is there a different chart we should be referring to?

 

Did you miss the part where I said given the scenario I don’t think it’s as simple as looking up numbers on a chart?

[TheBeane]

I don't think this trade matters much. Let us remember the last time the Jets traded up in the first round for a QB. The results??

 

Butt fumble...

[Wayne Arnold]

Just now, TheElectricCompany said:

Of course it would, but we have to get there first, and do the Bucs even want to move? 

It looks like it would take 1300 points to move from 12 to 2. The Jets had to pay ~600 extra to move from 6 to 3. 

I would bet that we would have to give up ~2000+ to from 12 to 2, and more like ~2300+ if we went the 12 to 7 to 2 route with two teams. 

 

I chose the Bucs because they're another team that doesn't need a quarterback. I would think adding an extra second by dropping five spots would be very appealing. If they don't want to then there's also the Colts (6) or Bears (8) or even the 49ers (9). None of those teams are looking for a quarterback early.

[TheElectricCompany]

5 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

I chose the Bucs because they're another team that doesn't need a quarterback. I would think adding an extra second by dropping five spots would be very appealing. If they don't want to then there's also the Colts (6) or Bears (8) or even the 49ers (9). None of those teams are looking for a quarterback early.

I'd be surprised if there was anymore movement until the draft. 

If anything, the Jets move to 3, signaling a QB, makes those spots even more appealing. It's a greater chance at an elite prospect sliding down the board.

In March, you are not going to get those teams to slide back to 12 for a 2nd round pick. They have all the leverage right now and can demand a premium.

Come draft day, when all their targets are gone and they have some flexibility? Maybe you can get away with a deal closer to the value chart, but not now. 

 

Edited March 18, 2018 by TheElectricCompany

[Wayne Arnold]

3 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

Did you miss the part where I said given the scenario I don’t think it’s as simple as looking up numbers on a chart?

 

I saw that but didn't find it relevant. What's the point of throwing out all reference points in a discussion about draft trades? If the trade value chart is irrelevant in this given scenario then what else is there?

 

If Gettleman refuses to be reasonable then there won't be a trade. It's that simple.

[Bangarang]

2 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

I saw that but didn't find it relevant. What's the point of throwing out all reference points in a discussion about draft trades? If the trade value chart is irrelevant in this given scenario then what else is there?

 

If Gettleman refuses to be reasonable then there won't be a trade. It's that simple.

 

Now you’re just putting words in my mouth because I never said it was irrelevant.

[Wayne Arnold]

6 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

I'd be surprised if there was anymore movement until the draft. 

If anything, the Jets move to 3, signaling a QB, makes those spots even more appealing. It's a greater chance at an elite prospect sliding down the board.

In March, you are not going to get those teams to slide back to 12 for a 2nd round pick. They have all the leverage right now and can demand a premium.

Come draft day, when all their targets are gone and they have some flexibility? Maybe you can get away with a deal closer to the value chart, but not now. 

 

Well yeah, if this trade ever happens I don't expect it to occur for at least another 3+ weeks. Because I honestly don't think Beane and his staff have their draft order set yet. Which means they don't know if they even want to move up to #2. 

[YoloinOhio]

 

[KingRex]

17 minutes ago, BUFFALOBART said:

I would make a run for the #1, or #2 pick. The cost may be horrific if the picks are available at all, but if we have focused on who we think 'the guy' is with certainty, I say pull the trigger, and pay whatever price.

Even with the recent great FA moves, the Bills still have enough holes that must be filled to nkeep this a playoff worthy TEAM that the likely price for trading draft and potential current roster resources to move to the top of the draft board would be to not only condem the Bills to a horrible record in '18, likely make it essential to fill position player gaps bin '19, but even worse if the newly drafted "franchise" QB either gets hurt (behind a likely porous OL that needs a starting C, and another starter or usable swing guy) or turns out to be Ryan Leaf rather than Peyton Manning, trading up looks like it brings the price of killing this TEAM.

 

I much prefer the Pitts method building the TEAM first and then draft a Big Ben to win it all than the very risky move of pay any price to move up now and hope drafting a franchise QB this year does not turn out to be either another of many dogs drafted early or an Andrew Luck injury victim.

[Thurman#1]

On 3/18/2018 at 1:56 AM, jrober38 said:

 

Naw, there's no shot that happens.

 

What I'm saying is what's going to happen.

 

Everything they've done so far makes sense. 

 

Tyrod is the steady hand at QB, with Josh Gordon stretching the field (what Tyrod does best) and Landry working the slot. Njoku can stretch the seem at the TE spot. Barkley gives their run game instant credibility. Allen is the guy they love (has been reported on and off for a while now), and having Tyrod allows them to red shirt him for a year and then insert him into a supremely talented offense in 2019. 

 

Wait and see. 

 

 

Yeah, you're saying what's going to happen with nothing but opinion to back it up, and even being stupid enough to use the word "guarantee" on something you have absolutely no power over.

 

I got it. And it was, is and will be stupid to confuse opinion with fact as you are doing here.

Edited March 19, 2018 by Thurman#1

[auburnbillsbacker]

It is my guess that QBs go 1st and 2nd meaning meaning the Jets trade was brilliant.  

[Thurman#1]

19 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

I saw that but didn't find it relevant. What's the point of throwing out all reference points in a discussion about draft trades? If the trade value chart is irrelevant in this given scenario then what else is there?

 

If Gettleman refuses to be reasonable then there won't be a trade. It's that simple.

 

 

The trade value chart is a guide. But not an absolute.

 

Teams that have the catbird seat get better deals. Gettelman is in an absolutely enviable situation now, with probably four teams desperate to get that pick and possibly feeling that if they don't get that specific pick there's no good fallback position. He's likely to do a lot better than the chart says.

[Zerovoltz]

Here is my take on this.

 

Cleveland will take a QB at 1.  They aren't taking Barkley.  They signed Hyde to start, they have a good change of pace back,  The FO is not inclined to value RB.  I am assuming for the moment that QB they will take is Darnold.  For this scenario that doesn't matter too much.

 

The Giants are NOT taking Barkley.  Here is why.  They know the Browns are going QB.  The Giants could trade RIGHT NOW with the Jets, and flop spots.  They know the Jets are up there for QB.  If the Giants wanted Barkley, they could have HIM and some more Jets draft picks just to flop.....They have surely been called by the Jets, Bills, and whoever else to inquire about the pick.  They aren't trading it because they will draft ROSEN.  Eli is almost done, the 2019 QB class is room temperature lobster bisque flavored yogurt.  They can simply draft the next franchise QB right now....it's the hardest thing to find, there is no promise that at any other time will they have such an easy shot at one....they are taking Rosen....getting the next franchise QB is absolutely the very best thing they could possibly do with this pick.  

 

The Jets move up to 3 because the like at least 3 of the QB, but I believe they have come up here for Mayfield.  that GM and Coach DO NOT HAVE TIME to wait on developing Allen.  Mayfield took a billion reps in college, he improved every year.  He has a high completion pct.  He loves the spotlight.  He's a charachter.  He is everything NY wants in an athlete....they went up for Mayfield.   .....and IF the Giants decide to see what they can get for the pick....it would be really really easy to bilk the Jets out of something like the Niners got from the Bears last year....but I don't think the pick is in play....Only way is if the Giants could be sure Rosen would be there at 3.  

 

Once the QB are gone 1-2-3....Allen will still be high on somoenes board...maybe even the Bills (probably) Arizona will be lurking, calling to go up....the Niners, sitting at pick 9 is going to where the action is....that will be the first team who look at the guys on the board at 9 and feel like moving down to 12 or 15 is worthwhile.  Bills move up to 9....take the 4th QB of the draft,  Josh Allen.  

[Thurman#1]

16 hours ago, KingRex said:

Even with the recent great FA moves, the Bills still have enough holes that must be filled to nkeep this a playoff worthy TEAM that the likely price for trading draft and potential current roster resources to move to the top of the draft board would be to not only condem the Bills to a horrible record in '18, likely make it essential to fill position player gaps bin '19, but even worse if the newly drafted "franchise" QB either gets hurt (behind a likely porous OL that needs a starting C, and another starter or usable swing guy) or turns out to be Ryan Leaf rather than Peyton Manning, trading up looks like it brings the price of killing this TEAM.

 

I much prefer the Pitts method building the TEAM first and then draft a Big Ben to win it all than the very risky move of pay any price to move up now and hope drafting a franchise QB this year does not turn out to be either another of many dogs drafted early or an Andrew Luck injury victim.

 

 

Pittsburgh took like two decades of using that strategy before they were lucky enough to be able to get Roethlisberger. From when they lost Bradshaw to where they were finally lucky enough to get Roethlisberger at #11 they made do with awful QBs because they never had good enough picks to get a good QB. All because they were pretty consistently good but with QBs like Slash and McDonnell who weren't good enough to win titles.

 

Without the luck to get Roethlisberger (and the Bills trying to trade above them but - DOH! - deciding it was too expensive) they'd still be the consistently good team that never wins titles.

 

Maybe the Bills should have thrown worry about value to the winds and just traded up to get Roethlisberger. The NFL might look a lot different to Bills fans if they had done that. Which has a parallel to this year, by the way.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

41 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Pittsburgh took like two decades of using that strategy before they were lucky enough to be able to get Roethlisberger. From when they lost Bradshaw to where they were finally lucky enough to get Roethlisberger at #11 they made do with awful QBs because they never had good enough picks to get a good QB. All because they were pretty consistently good but with QBs like Slash and McDonnell who weren't good enough to win titles.

 

Without the luck to get Roethlisberger (and the Bills trying to trade above them but - DOH! - deciding it was too expensive) they'd still be the consistently good team that never wins titles.

 

Maybe the Bills should have thrown worry about value to the winds and just traded up to get Roethlisberger. The NFL might look a lot different to Bills fans if they had done that. Which has a parallel to this year, by the way.

This this so much this it isn’t !@#$ing funny

[Peace Frog]

1 hour ago, Zerovotlz said:

Here is my take on this.

 

Cleveland will take a QB at 1.  They aren't taking Barkley.  They signed Hyde to start, they have a good change of pace back,  The FO is not inclined to value RB.  I am assuming for the moment that QB they will take is Darnold.  For this scenario that doesn't matter too much.

 

The Giants are NOT taking Barkley.  Here is why.  They know the Browns are going QB.  The Giants could trade RIGHT NOW with the Jets, and flop spots.  They know the Jets are up there for QB.  If the Giants wanted Barkley, they could have HIM and some more Jets draft picks just to flop.....They have surely been called by the Jets, Bills, and whoever else to inquire about the pick.  They aren't trading it because they will draft ROSEN.  Eli is almost done, the 2019 QB class is room temperature lobster bisque flavored yogurt.  They can simply draft the next franchise QB right now....it's the hardest thing to find, there is no promise that at any other time will they have such an easy shot at one....they are taking Rosen....getting the next franchise QB is absolutely the very best thing they could possibly do with this pick.  

 

The Jets move up to 3 because the like at least 3 of the QB, but I believe they have come up here for Mayfield.  that GM and Coach DO NOT HAVE TIME to wait on developing Allen.  Mayfield took a billion reps in college, he improved every year.  He has a high completion pct.  He loves the spotlight.  He's a charachter.  He is everything NY wants in an athlete....they went up for Mayfield.   .....and IF the Giants decide to see what they can get for the pick....it would be really really easy to bilk the Jets out of something like the Niners got from the Bears last year....but I don't think the pick is in play....Only way is if the Giants could be sure Rosen would be there at 3.  

 

Once the QB are gone 1-2-3....Allen will still be high on somoenes board...maybe even the Bills (probably) Arizona will be lurking, calling to go up....the Niners, sitting at pick 9 is going to where the action is....that will be the first team who look at the guys on the board at 9 and feel like moving down to 12 or 15 is worthwhile.  Bills move up to 9....take the 4th QB of the draft,  Josh Allen.  

Um....I think Denver might have something to say about that.

[BuffaloMatt]

19 hours ago, BUFFALOBART said:

I would make a run for the #1, or #2 pick. The cost may be horrific if the picks are available at all, but if we have focused on who we think 'the guy' is with certainty, I say pull the trigger, and pay whatever price. It's a high stakes gamble, regardless. Beware of what the future may hold for all teams coveting the potential in the top picks...

 

And with the 1st or 2nd pick who would you pick? No easy decisions.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

Either way Barkley is gone at pick 1 or 2, I'm guessing Darnold will be the 1st QB taken. 

[IDBillzFan]

On 3/17/2018 at 8:41 AM, ScottLaw said:

Which again, would be dumb and grounds for inevitable firing.

 

It would be two years in a row this regime passed on QBs and they just traded their starter. 

 

Bean has been GM for two years in a row? Man, time flies.

[auburnbillsbacker]

Most of these trades are unofficially made during the owners meeting in the beginning of April.  

[BadLandsMeanie]

28 minutes ago, auburnbillsbacker said:

Most of these trades are unofficially made during the owners meeting in the beginning of April.  

I didn't know that.

But do people welch on those deals very often?

[Success]

I keep reading that the Jets don’t even know who they want yet.

 

If that’s true, it’s a pretty reckless trade.  I wouldn’t want the Bills doing that.  

[BadLandsMeanie]

6 minutes ago, Success said:

I keep reading that the Jets don’t even know who they want yet.

 

If that’s true, it’s a pretty reckless trade.  I wouldn’t want the Bills doing that.  

I think maybe they have to say that because they don't know who they are going to get. They can only get whoever is still there after 1 and 2 pick.

 

You have to figure they have 3 players rated highly enough that they will be happy with any of them. Hopefully for the Jets that have that and are not gambling.

[billieve420]

6 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

Here is my take on this.

 

Cleveland will take a QB at 1.  They aren't taking Barkley.  They signed Hyde to start, they have a good change of pace back,  The FO is not inclined to value RB.  I am assuming for the moment that QB they will take is Darnold.  For this scenario that doesn't matter too much.

 

The Giants are NOT taking Barkley.  Here is why.  They know the Browns are going QB.  The Giants could trade RIGHT NOW with the Jets, and flop spots.  They know the Jets are up there for QB.  If the Giants wanted Barkley, they could have HIM and some more Jets draft picks just to flop.....They have surely been called by the Jets, Bills, and whoever else to inquire about the pick.  They aren't trading it because they will draft ROSEN.  Eli is almost done, the 2019 QB class is room temperature lobster bisque flavored yogurt.  They can simply draft the next franchise QB right now....it's the hardest thing to find, there is no promise that at any other time will they have such an easy shot at one....they are taking Rosen....getting the next franchise QB is absolutely the very best thing they could possibly do with this pick.  

 

The Jets move up to 3 because the like at least 3 of the QB, but I believe they have come up here for Mayfield.  that GM and Coach DO NOT HAVE TIME to wait on developing Allen.  Mayfield took a billion reps in college, he improved every year.  He has a high completion pct.  He loves the spotlight.  He's a charachter.  He is everything NY wants in an athlete....they went up for Mayfield.   .....and IF the Giants decide to see what they can get for the pick....it would be really really easy to bilk the Jets out of something like the Niners got from the Bears last year....but I don't think the pick is in play....Only way is if the Giants could be sure Rosen would be there at 3.  

 

Once the QB are gone 1-2-3....Allen will still be high on somoenes board...maybe even the Bills (probably) Arizona will be lurking, calling to go up....the Niners, sitting at pick 9 is going to where the action is....that will be the first team who look at the guys on the board at 9 and feel like moving down to 12 or 15 is worthwhile.  Bills move up to 9....take the 4th QB of the draft,  Josh Allen.  

 

I don't see the Giants taking a QB regardless of what happens with Cleveland at #1. I don't think any of the guys coming out are sure fire Franchise QBs. Giants have Davis Webb on their roster who offers some upside as their developmental guy. I think the Giants want to trade down and load up on players to make one last run with Eli.

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/giants/giants-remain-intrigued-david-webb-nfl-draft-approaches-article-1.3847368

[BillsFan4]

On 3/17/2018 at 12:43 PM, jrober38 said:

 

Browns are going to take Barkley #1 and Allen #4. 

 

I guarantee it. 

I am not so sure about that.

 

 

Hes never been part of a front office drafting a RB in round 1 at all, let alone #1 overall. 

 

The highest pick hes invested himself on a RB as a GM is a 3rd rounder. 

 

He could view Barkley as the exception, but I think it's far from a guarantee. 

 

 

[TheElectricCompany]

7 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

 

The Giants are NOT taking Barkley.  Here is why.  They know the Browns are going QB.  The Giants could trade RIGHT NOW with the Jets, and flop spots.  They know the Jets are up there for QB.  If the Giants wanted Barkley, they could have HIM and some more Jets draft picks just to flop.....They have surely been called by the Jets, Bills, and whoever else to inquire about the pick.  They aren't trading it because they will draft ROSEN.  Eli is almost done, the 2019 QB class is room temperature lobster bisque flavored yogurt.  They can simply draft the next franchise QB right now....it's the hardest thing to find, there is no promise that at any other time will they have such an easy shot at one....they are taking Rosen....getting the next franchise QB is absolutely the very best thing they could possibly do with this pick.  

 

I wanted to highlight this...very good point here. I don't know which QBs are going where, but I do expect them to go 1-2-3. 

15 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

He could view Barkley as the exception, but I think it's far from a guarantee. 

Barkley is an exception. He has HOF traits. 

He's going at #4 or #5. 

[auburnbillsbacker]

2 hours ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

I didn't know that.

But do people welch on those deals very often?

That is a good question.  I think they are often contingent in nature.  For example, if Rosen is still available we would trade x, y, and z for the pick.  I'm sure the offer wouldn't stand if a team got a better deal.  

[Wayne Arnold]

12 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

The trade value chart is a guide. But not an absolute.

 

Teams that have the catbird seat get better deals. Gettelman is in an absolutely enviable situation now, with probably four teams desperate to get that pick and possibly feeling that if they don't get that specific pick there's no good fallback position. He's likely to do a lot better than the chart says.

 

No kidding the chart is not an absolute.

 

How many other teams have two first-rounders, two second-rounders, and two third-rounders?

[jumpgo692003]

On 3/17/2018 at 11:32 AM, BadLandsMeanie said:

Just a word if you will allow me.

 

The Jets just traded into the 3rd spot of the first round. I feel grim about that just like everyone because it makes it look like we might get shut out from having our choice.

 

I think the only person truly happy about it is AJ McCarron, who is probably still dancing as I speak.

 

But it was a mistake. This was never going to be easy and it is more like a gunfight than anything else. Somebody is going to live and somebody is going to die.

Beane will keep his cool, because Beane will know that the Jets just locked themselves in to taking whoever is left at 3.

 

So the Jets have played their cards too soon which leaves  Beane with a small advantage. Beane still has the option to trade up if the guy he wants is there at 2. 

 

The Jets just made it so we can get ahead of them. We don't have to worry about them any more if you look at it that way.

 

You get 15 minutes I think it is in round one to wheel and deal. If the Bills see somebody they want bad enough they can probably trade ahead of the Jets and get who they want. While the Jets are pretty much locked in.

 

The whole thing is dicey but we just got a small advantage here.

 

I don't believe they will, but if the Browns take Barkey #1, this Jets move could result in the Buffalo Bills getting first pick of all the quarterbacks. They can get whoever they want.

Well this is certainly a revolutionary type of trading before the draft it is not a mistake in my opinion it is a calculated risk and much less of one than waiting on draft day

[BadLandsMeanie]

52 minutes ago, jumpgo692003 said:

Well this is certainly a revolutionary type of trading before the draft it is not a mistake in my opinion it is a calculated risk and much less of one than waiting on draft day

That is an interesting viewpoint. Kind of like bird in the hand I guess?