Victory Formation Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Out of the teams that traded up for 1st round QBs in the past 10 years: 2017: Chicago for Mitchell Trubisky Kansas City for Patrick Mahomes Houston for Deshaun Watson 2016: Los Angeles for Jared Goff Philadelphia for Carson Wentz 2015: no one. 2014: Johnny Manziel Teddy Bridgewater 2013: no one. 2012: Washington gave up the farm for RG3. 2011: nobody. 2010: nobody. 2009: Tampa Bay traded to #17 for Josh Freeman. 2008: Nobody So out of the 9 QBs taken: 33% have been great. (Wentz, Goff, Watson) 44% have been busts. (Freeman, RG3, Trubisky, Manziel) 22% the jury is still out on. (Bridgewater, Mahomes) 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tsaikotic Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 How is Trubisky a bust already? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victory Formation Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, Tsaikotic said: How is Trubisky a bust already? Fair enough, maybe I'm letting my personal opinion get in the way on that, but I really don't think so, he sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Bills Blog Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 My initial reaction is that I don't think it's fair to call Trubisky a bust at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victory Formation Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 (edited) 2 minutes ago, The Bills Blog said: My initial reaction is that I don't think it's fair to call Trubisky a bust at this point. Well, let me put it this way, do you think Chicago would make the same trade today that they did a year ago for Trubisky? Edited March 11, 2018 by NewDayBills 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 How can you label Trubisky a bust after 12 games? He had a typical rookie season. The jury is still out on Watson as well as RG3 had a great rookie year before the injury in the playoffs. This is the best draft class since '04 and we're fools if we don't move up and draft one in the top 5 given the capital we have. 3 minutes ago, NewDayBills said: Well, let me put it this way, do you think Chicago would make the same trade today that they did a year ago for Trubisky? No. They'd of moved up for Watson and we would of stayed at #10 and drafted Watson if we had to do it again. Hindsight is 50/50 though. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 I like those odds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xRUSHx Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Its a QB driven league and teams know this. You either stink up the league to get your franchise worthy QB pick or you gut and trade to get your franchise worthy QB pick, eitherway without one your just not good enough. A good run team will go all in on getting one or your team forever rides the there is always next year talk wishing for a miracle out of a QB not talented enough to get the job done. A franchise worthy QB is truly the only way to have that championship team every season, it is like the lottery if you do not invest in a ticket you will never win. 22 minutes ago, Doc Brown said: How can you label Trubisky a bust after 12 games? He had a typical rookie season. The jury is still out on Watson as well as RG3 had a great rookie year before the injury in the playoffs. This is the best draft class since '04 and we're fools if we don't move up and draft one in the top 5 given the capital we have. No. They'd of moved up for Watson and we would of stayed at #10 and drafted Watson if we had to do it again. Hindsight is 50/50 though. Excellent post Doc 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillyG Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 (edited) 55 minutes ago, NewDayBills said: Out of the teams that traded up for 1st round QBs in the past 10 years: 2017: Chicago for Mitchell Trubisky Kansas City for Patrick Mahomes Houston for Deshaun Watson 2016: Los Angeles for Jared Goff Philadelphia for Carson Wentz 2015: no one. 2014: Johnny Manziel Teddy Bridgewater 2013: no one. 2012: Washington gave up the farm for RG3. 2011: nobody. 2010: nobody. 2009: Tampa Bay traded to #17 for Josh Freeman. 2008: Nobody So out of the 9 QBs taken: 33% have been great. (Wentz, Goff, Watson) 44% have been busts. (Freeman, RG3, Trubisky, Manziel) 22% the jury is still out on. (Bridgewater, Mahomes) Goff would have been a bust after 1 year in your eyes too then, right? Give Trubisky time...and talent around him. Watson I'd say the jury is definitely still out on. He was great at first...so was RGIII. Then...injury. Let's see who he is coming back and with a bit more time in the league. Edited March 11, 2018 by No Place To Hyde 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBill Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 41 minutes ago, Tsaikotic said: How is Trubisky a bust already? Calling Wertz, Goff and Watson great is also a stretch at this point. It’s very early in their careers. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victory Formation Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said: Calling Wertz, Goff and Watson great is also a stretch at this point. It’s very early in their careers. Well, take Goff, Wentz and Watson off the list then, which makes my reasoning behind this thread even more meaningful. Fans want to trade the farm for a QB when the odds of landing a franchise guy is 33% at best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 The only two of those trades that I wouldn't make again today are the same two I wouldn't have made at the time - Manziel and Freeman. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foxx Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 your right. lets just continue to do the things we have done for the last 17 years because they have worked so very well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victory Formation Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, Foxx said: your right. lets just continue to do the things we have done for the last 17 years because they have worked so very well. When is the last time we've had this many picks? We can literally load up and build a powerhouse. Trading that away for nothing, why do it? I could see moving up 8-10 spots because that would not put a dent in our capital, but moving in the top 10 like some want is irresponsible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foxx Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, NewDayBills said: When is the last time we've had this many picks? We can literally load up and build a powerhouse. Trading that away for nothing, why do it? I could see moving up 8-10 spots because that would not put a dent in our capital, but moving in the top 10 like some want is irresponsible. im sure you know the definition of insanity. continuing to do what you have always done and expecting different results...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pbomb Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 49 minutes ago, NewDayBills said: Well, let me put it this way, do you think Chicago would make the same trade today that they did a year ago for Trubisky? Goff was terrible his rookie year, wentz wasnt exactly tearing it up either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreggTX Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 hour ago, NewDayBills said: Out of the teams that traded up for 1st round QBs in the past 10 years: 2017: Chicago for Mitchell Trubisky Kansas City for Patrick Mahomes Houston for Deshaun Watson 2016: Los Angeles for Jared Goff Philadelphia for Carson Wentz 2015: no one. 2014: Johnny Manziel Teddy Bridgewater 2013: no one. 2012: Washington gave up the farm for RG3. 2011: nobody. 2010: nobody. 2009: Tampa Bay traded to #17 for Josh Freeman. 2008: Nobody So out of the 9 QBs taken: 33% have been great. (Wentz, Goff, Watson) 44% have been busts. (Freeman, RG3, Trubisky, Manziel) 22% the jury is still out on. (Bridgewater, Mahomes) Trubisky is already a bust? Maybe you could give him a little more time??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victory Formation Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Foxx said: im sure you know the definition of insanity. continuing to do what you have always done and expecting different results...... I've shown you statistics that provide examples as to what other teams have done. Why not learn from the mistakes of other people so you don't make the same mistakes yourself? 33% chance at best to find a franchise QB if we trade the farm for to get into the top 5. Or we could take those 5 picks in the top 65 selections and build our own version of the Legion of Boom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, NewDayBills said: I've shown you statistics that provide examples as to what other teams have done. Why not learn from the mistakes of other people so you don't make the same mistakes yourself? 33% chance at best to find a franchise QB if we trade the farm for to get into the top 5. Or we could take those 5 picks in the top 65 selections and build our own version of the Legion of Boom. Or those 5 picks could turn out to be non-impact players. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victory Formation Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, GreggTX said: Trubisky is already a bust? Maybe you could give him a little more time??? I doubt Chicago would trade up for Trubisky again, which is all you need to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pbomb Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, NewDayBills said: When is the last time we've had this many picks? We can literally load up and build a powerhouse. Trading that away for nothing, why do it? I could see moving up 8-10 spots because that would not put a dent in our capital, but moving in the top 10 like some want is irresponsible. Or maybe continuing to not address the qb situation properly is irresponsible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Thanks for putting the summary together. What it really shows is that the jury is out on this small sample size since the ONLY ones that ‘appear’ may work out haven’t been in the league for more than a couple of years and even some of those already suffered season ending injuries! Of course the more important list would be the success rate of the past decade’s first round QBs regardless of whether a trade-up was involved. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreggTX Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 12 minutes ago, NewDayBills said: Well, take Goff, Wentz and Watson off the list then, which makes my reasoning behind this thread even more meaningful. Fans want to trade the farm for a QB when the odds of landing a franchise guy is 33% at best. And there are 31 other teams trying to win the SB which makes the odds 3.125%. Should we just stop trying? At some point you have to take a chance. I doubt our next franchise QB is going to be handed over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pbomb Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, 26CornerBlitz said: Or those 5 picks could turn out to be non-impact players. those picks are guaranteed to be good only qb picks are risky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreggTX Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, NewDayBills said: I doubt Chicago would trade up for Trubisky again, which is all you need to know. I don't need to know if he'll turn out OK? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foxx Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Pbomb said: those picks are guaranteed to be good only qb picks are risky probowlers even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victory Formation Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 (edited) 5 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said: Or those 5 picks could turn out to be non-impact players. Let's take the 33% odds for example and let's say you're playing scratch off tickets. Would you rather have 1 ticket at a 33% chance or 5 tickets with a 33% chance? (Although the odds of finding a franchise QB is far slimmer than drafting other positions and our chances of finding starters would be greater than 33% along with 5x more chances to find good players.) Edited March 11, 2018 by NewDayBills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffAlone Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, NewDayBills said: I doubt Chicago would trade up for Trubisky again, which is all you need to know. All we really know is Mitchy didnt win a Superbowl in year one and that you dont like him as a QB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foxx Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, NewDayBills said: Let's take the 33% odds for example and let's say you're playing scratch off tickets. Would you rather have 1 ticket at a 33% chance or 5 tickets with a 33% chance? (Although the odds of finding a franchise QB is far slimmer than other drafting other positions and our chances of finding starters would be greater than 33% along with 5x more chances to find good players.) some attempts at logic scare the !@#$ outta me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, NewDayBills said: Let's take the 33% odds for example and let's say you're playing scratch off tickets. Would you rather have 1 ticket at a 33% chance or 5 tickets with a 33% chance? (Although the odds of finding a franchise QB is far slimmer than other drafting other positions and our chances of finding starters would be greater than 33% along with 5x more chances to find good players.) Terrible analogy. This isn't a scratch off lottery. Either you trust a GM and the scouting staff's ability to judge QBs or you don't. If they cannot identify a franchise QB, then what makes you think they'll have success with five of the top 65 picks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, NewDayBills said: Let's take the 33% odds for example and let's say you're playing scratch off tickets. Would you rather have 1 ticket at a 33% chance or 5 tickets with a 33% chance? One can compare the drafting a QB to playing the lottery but it’s a lot different if the wife finds out you used the entire months grocery money to play it! Following the Tyrod trade the Bills have literally NOTHING in the cupboard m. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zerovoltz Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, NewDayBills said: Let's take the 33% odds for example and let's say you're playing scratch off tickets. Would you rather have 1 ticket at a 33% chance or 5 tickets with a 33% chance? (Although the odds of finding a franchise QB is far slimmer than drafting other positions and our chances of finding starters would be greater than 33% along with 5x more chances to find good players.) Your analogy assumes a pro bowl linebacker is equal to a pro bowl QB. that simply isn’t the case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said: Terrible analogy. This isn't a scratch off lottery. Either you trust a GM and the scouting staff's ability to judge QBs or you don't. If they cannot identify a franchise QB, then what makes you think they'll have success with five of the top 65 picks? 100% 26. I hate the "it's a lottery" argument. It really isn't. That is why you employ personnel staff. If it was just a lottery why would you bother? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, GunnerBill said: 100% 26. I hate the "it's a lottery" argument. It really isn't. That is why you employ personnel staff. If it was just a lottery why would you bother? Exactly to the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xRUSHx Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, NewDayBills said: I've shown you statistics that provide examples as to what other teams have done. Why not learn from the mistakes of other people so you don't make the same mistakes yourself? 33% chance at best to find a franchise QB if we trade the farm for to get into the top 5. Or we could take those 5 picks in the top 65 selections and build our own version of the Legion of Boom. What makes you think this draft will make a legion of boom? The boom had a talent at QB, without the QB the boom is more of a snap crackle pop. I would hate to see them continue to build the Whaley way that thinks building the team before finding a QB will create a powerhouse when all it does is create players leaving after the first contract and the forever talk of wishing we had a better QB while having the longest playoffless streak. What happens if they pick another Maybin? How about listing all position busts from the 1st, no position is a lock from the 1st IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 We can argue all we want but there are a couple things that remain set in stone. One is that Beane has said they have to have a WB. A second is that the front office has a lot more data on the guys in the draft than anyone on this board. A third is we have no idea if they'll move up or down because we don't have the data they do. And fourth is no matter who they take, there's a pretty good chance it won't be the right call. Not because they are inept, but because that is the nature of trying to identify a great QB. My guess is they sign McCarron and move up to get Rosen. But if they stay put and take say Rudolph fine by me. Ultimately none of us know if any of these guys will turn out any good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffAlone Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Also OP, if they are in fact a "smart" organization now, I doubt they trade away a proven starter, and by far the best of only two QB's on the roster, just to take the 5th, 6th, or 7th best QB available in the draft and marry their (what will be very short) careers to. That wouldn't be very smart at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cripple Creek Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 hour ago, NewDayBills said: Out of the teams that traded up for 1st round QBs in the past 10 years: 2017: Chicago for Mitchell Trubisky Kansas City for Patrick Mahomes Houston for Deshaun Watson 2016: Los Angeles for Jared Goff Philadelphia for Carson Wentz 2015: no one. 2014: Johnny Manziel Teddy Bridgewater 2013: no one. 2012: Washington gave up the farm for RG3. 2011: nobody. 2010: nobody. 2009: Tampa Bay traded to #17 for Josh Freeman. 2008: Nobody So out of the 9 QBs taken: 33% have been great. (Wentz, Goff, Watson) 44% have been busts. (Freeman, RG3, Trubisky, Manziel) 22% the jury is still out on. (Bridgewater, Mahomes) Interesting, you call Griffin a bust yet he had a fantastic rookie season but was never the same after suffering a knee injury. You call Watson great after one partial season which was cut short after suffering a knee injury. You say jury is out on Bridgewater who was playing very well before suffering a knee injury. Notice any similarities here? You can't bust a player (Griffin) for getting hurt. You shouldn't project greatness on Watson just yet. Bridgewater has a much larger body of work and if he regains NFL health he is definitely a known commodity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victory Formation Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, xRUSHx said: What makes you think this draft will make a legion of boom? The boom had a talent at QB, without the QB the boom is more of a snap crackle pop. I would hate to see them continue to build the Whaley way that thinks building the team before finding a QB will create a powerhouse when all it does is create players leaving after the first contract and the forever talk of wishing we had a better QB while having the longest playoffless streak. What happens if they pick another Maybin? How about listing all position busts from the 1st, no position is a lock from the 1st IMO This draft is loaded at just about every weakness we have. We could probably walk away with 2 LBs, 2 DTs that start Day 1. I'm not against QB in RD1, I'm not against trading up for one either, I just wouldn't trade the farm for one. It comes down to the risk/reward ratio. Giving up 21 and a 1st next year to move to 7-10 is a lot more acceptable than trading 3 1st and 2 2nds to move up to #2 in a draft class where I just don't see a Peyton Manning or an Andrew Luck, I just don't see a prospect like that. Sure there are good prospects, but no generational talents. I really like Josh Allen and there are talks about him going #1 and that guy's bust potential is through the roof. I don't think the risk to reward ratio is good for a massive trade up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mead107 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Comes Dow to you just never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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