always draft BPA

[Dr. Who]

Just now, RochesterRob said:

  In a normal year yes.  But the way things are shaping up with the top 3 QB's likely to go at the very top of the draft changes things.  The current teams at the top of the draft order will rightly seek a premium on top of normal value for a trade up.  It's supply and demand at its most basic.

I will be surprised if the cost is as high as you surmise, even with competition.  We shall see.  I think it was a mistake not to take a shot with Watson or Mahomes last year.  The mistake is compounded if the cost becomes such that one is frozen out in a year with a number of quality qbs at the top of the draft.  I cannot fathom folks who want to continue to kick the franchise qb can down the road.  Teams will always have holes that can be filled by FA and draft over the course of years.  The opportunity to acquire a top level talent at the most important position in football, however, is not something that automatically becomes available every year.

[DCOrange]

I agree with the principle in general, but I disagree with this meaning that Buffalo shouldn't try for a QB this year. This is a great draft for QBs. Five 1st round caliber prospects. The key is not overreaching in the middle rounds where it's pretty weak. In my mind, there are 5 1st round caliber QB prospects and 1 2nd round caliber. Outside of those 6, I wouldn't bother touching a QB until late on Day 3, but I'd absolutely try to get one of those top 6 guys.

 

This kind of principle is also part of what makes the Ivory signing so bad. RB is incredibly strong this year and now Buffalo decided to invest a lot of money in a backup when they certainly could have gotten their backup in the draft at a far cheaper price.

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

A few comments...

 

You have the benefit of hindsight. Easy to say in 2018 that Randy Moss was better than Rob Johnson, or D.Hopkins over EJ Manuel. Good luck trying to predict the upcoming draft class with a 40-50% bust rate. 

 

BPA is impossible to define. Every team has an entirely different draft board, weighted differently based on dozens of factors. Our perception of BPA is largely fueled by what Kiper, Mayock, and other draft bigshots say. Ever notice how the SI, CBS, NFLN and ESPN big boards are pretty much the same thing? The differences between them are minimal. 

 

You can't just go pure BPA. Example...Denver Broncos at #5. Let's say Bradley Chubb is there, truly an elite prospect as a pass rusher and he's arguably be the best player on the board, but they'd be foolish to pick him. Von Miller has a $120 million contract, another 1st rounder in Shane Ray who has looked great when healthy and a viable rotational guy in Shaq Barrett. You just don't have a need for another OLB/DE. 

 

You should pick the best player available, at a key position of need. 

 

 

In general I agree with the benefit of hindsight but not in the Randy Moss situation. He was a one in a generation player BEFORE he ever got drafted.

[Reed83HOF]

16 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Yep, this is a good draft to take that swing. It is a good QB draft and a pretty bad draft in general. Players will probably be drafted almost a full round ahead of their talent. This is a good time to try to land your guy.

Especially if you don't give up too many picks in next year's draft or are able to swing a few trades to get next year's picks back. If the QB blows, it is only 1 bad draft

[TheElectricCompany]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

In general I agree with the benefit of hindsight but not in the Randy Moss situation. He was a one in a generation player BEFORE he ever got drafted.

I don't want to call them character concerns, but his persona was well known, and clearly a detriment to him getting draft high. 

[RochesterRob]

4 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

A few comments...

 

You have the benefit of hindsight. Easy to say in 2018 that Randy Moss was better than Rob Johnson, or D.Hopkins over EJ Manuel. Good luck trying to predict the upcoming draft class with a 40-50% bust rate. 

 

BPA is impossible to define. Every team has an entirely different draft board, weighted differently based on dozens of factors. Our perception of BPA is largely fueled by what Kiper, Mayock, and other draft bigshots say. Ever notice how the SI, CBS, NFLN and ESPN big boards are pretty much the same thing? The differences between them are minimal. 

 

You can't just go pure BPA. Example...Denver Broncos at #5. Let's say Bradley Chubb is there, truly an elite prospect as a pass rusher and he's arguably be the best player on the board, but they'd be foolish to pick him. Von Miller has a $120 million contract, another 1st rounder in Shane Ray who has looked great when healthy and a viable rotational guy in Shaq Barrett. You just don't have a need for another OLB/DE. 

 

You should pick the best player available, at a key position of need. 

 

 

  Well, yes you don't pull a Matt Millen and draft the same position at the top year after year. But most teams most of the time don't have a problem where BPA is a position where they are already well stocked at.  And since a prospect can be scooped a pick or two ahead they no doubt have a plan B and plan C ready to go.

7 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I will be surprised if the cost is as high as you surmise, even with competition.  We shall see.  I think it was a mistake not to take a shot with Watson or Mahomes last year.  The mistake is compounded if the cost becomes such that one is frozen out in a year with a number of quality qbs at the top of the draft.  I cannot fathom folks who want to continue to kick the franchise qb can down the road.  Teams will always have holes that can be filled by FA and draft over the course of years.  The opportunity to acquire a top level talent at the most important position in football, however, is not something that automatically becomes available every year.

  When you throw those names around it is a subjective argument.  What if the Bills did not have either Watson or Mahomes graded close to the slot where they were taken?  What if one of the names we fans covet only carries a grade that is 15 slots below where we project him.  I get the notion when in doubt take a QB a little higher than projected but there is such a thing as taking that concept too far.

[whatdrought]

On the one hand, I agree... And I think it's important to note that if this conversation were happening a couple years ago, when the most recent memory of a team going all in to trade up for a QB was RG3, and not Wentz/Goff, the tune on this board would likely be different. 

 

That being said, I do think QB is a priority and I would be willing to give up a decent amount (not as much as I have seen some agree to) in order to fix it. 

[Dr. Who]

9 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

 When you throw those names around it is a subjective argument.  What if the Bills did not have either Watson or Mahomes graded close to the slot where they were taken?  What if one of the names we fans covet only carries a grade that is 15 slots below where we project him.  I get the notion when in doubt take a QB a little higher than projected but there is such a thing as taking that concept too far.

No doubt.  I liked Watson and Mahomes and argued for them before and during the draft.  My take on Mayfield, Rosen, and Darnold is equally subjective.  I have no idea what OBD thinks.

[Kirby Jackson]

16 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

I don't want to call them character concerns, but his persona was well known, and clearly a detriment to him getting draft high. 

Yes, that’s why he slipped. No one looks back though and says “it’s surprising that Randy Moss was a 1st ballot HOFer.” People thought that going in. It’s not hindsight, if anything teams overplayed the character concerns and the Vikings benefitted.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

I am at the point right now where the only guy I want is Mayfield and I would do almost anything to get him. I would trade our 2 firsts this year and our 1st next year and a 2nd, 4th and a player to move up to the 1st pick and take Mayfield. 

[Boatdrinks]

2 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I am at the point right now where the only guy I want is Mayfield and I would do almost anything to get him. I would trade our 2 firsts this year and our 1st next year and a 2nd, 4th and a player to move up to the 1st pick and take Mayfield. 

Wow, that's going all in. I like Mayfield, but man if he's a bust that's a lot of loot that will set a franchise back for years and get people fired. 

[TheElectricCompany]

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Yes, that’s why he slipped. No one looks back though and says “it’s surprising that Randy Moss was a 1st ballot HOFer.” People thought that going in. It’s not hindsight, if anything teams overplayed the character concerns and the Vikings benefitted.

From Saquon Barkley's NFL scouting report, I found this tidbit interesting.... 

 

You don't screw up the special ones when you are a talent evaluator. This guy is special. Any concerns you file on him just feels like nitpicking to fill out the report." -- NFL general manager

 

Some guys are just that good. 

[yungmack]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

Overreaching for QB's I will never understand.  The depth of this draft is front 7 and interior oline.  So I would load up on front 7 and interior oline, and contemplate a QB at 21.  I would not overpay for moving up.  Since 1998, the Bills have overpaid four #1's for Bledsoe, RJ, EJ, and JP instead of drafting BPA and stacking roster with talent.

so 1st on JP instead of drafting Steven Jackson or Bob Sanders or waiting until 90th pick and selected Matt Schaub

 

so 1st on EJ instead of drafting Leveon Bell or DeAndre Hopkins

 

a #1 for RJ instead of drafting Takeo Spikes or Randy Moss

 

a #1 for Bledsoe instead of drafting Troy Palamuiu or Anquan Boldin

 

Einstein's definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results

 

That is why you don't overreach for QB, you don't squander draft picks, and you ALWAYS DRAFT BPA!

You write you would not overpay for moving up, and as examples you cite Bledsoe and RJ, who were acquired in trades, then EJ who they traded DOWN for, getting an extra pick in the bargain which morphs into Shady. Losman is the only true "overpay," and even there I would argue they should have offered MORE to get their real target, Big Ben. Don't you agree the last decade would have been better for the Bills if they had " overpaid" for him?

Edited March 6, 2018 by yungmack

[RyanC883]

58 minutes ago, MikeSpeed said:

What happens when (insert pick number here) the BPA is not a QB through the entire draft? Tony Dungy said it's always BPA in a position of NEED.

 

I think it's BPA, assuming you don't have a stud at that position.  I.E.  we will not be taking a RB at 21 or 22.  

[BigBuff423]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

Free agency hasn't even started.  Like I stated- I would contemplate a QB at 21..  If Lamar Jackson and the big 4 are gone- I am not drafting Rudolph at 21.  There are some tremendous prospects at LB, C,  G, and DT that should be available.  Those are all positions that need upgrading.   We could have 2 new quality starters with 21,22.   I stick to my board.  

 

 

And yet there are those who think Rudolph is the most "Pro ready" - a higher floor / lower ceiling type of player. So, I can't agree with that...but I can agree that I HATE trading up when you have so many holes to fill and the depth of this Draft are in the same positions of need for this team...that doesn't happen every year. You take the picks and run with them, BUT I am taking a QB early to insure I get a quality QB for the future. And, because I haven't given up so much, I still have multiple picks to help me out and if I'm not paying big FA money to a single player / position, ala Cousins, then I can also use some of that FA money on WR / CB / DE / LB to help augment my already deep set of Draft picks and that's BEFORE I trade Tyrod or any others. 

 

Having said ALLLLLL of that, if the Bills are absolutely stone-cold sold on ONE guy, then THIS happens to be the year they should push all their chips in and go get him. The two 1sts in this year, two 2nds in this year, the two 5ths give them a glut of picks to add to the mix. And when they trade Tyrod, that will be more Draft picks to choose from. If they're ever going to move up, this is the year to do it....even though I don't like it.

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

Overreaching for QB's I will never understand.  The depth of this draft is front 7 and interior oline.  So I would load up on front 7 and interior oline, and contemplate a QB at 21.  I would not overpay for moving up.  Since 1998, the Bills have overpaid four #1's for Bledsoe, RJ, EJ, and JP instead of drafting BPA and stacking roster with talent.

so 1st on JP instead of drafting Steven Jackson or Bob Sanders or waiting until 90th pick and selected Matt Schaub

 

so 1st on EJ instead of drafting Leveon Bell or DeAndre Hopkins

 

a #1 for RJ instead of drafting Takeo Spikes or Randy Moss

 

a #1 for Bledsoe instead of drafting Troy Palamuiu or Anquan Boldin

 

Einstein's definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results

 

That is why you don't overreach for QB, you don't squander draft picks, and you ALWAYS DRAFT BPA!

 

Honestly what would Takeo Spikes, Leveon Bell, Deandre Hopkins be good for if our QB can only get us 3 points in a meaningful playoff game? This is supposedly the deepest QB draft since 2004 and we should take DL or OL? At what point will we ever get a chance to get a franchise QB? Some experts say there are 4-5 in this draft, most drafts there are 1 maybe a 2nd, there is 0 reason to bypass QB this year unless we get Kirk Cousins which is very unlikely imo. 

[Kwai San]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

Overreaching for QB's I will never understand.  The depth of this draft is front 7 and interior oline.  So I would load up on front 7 and interior oline, and contemplate a QB at 21.  I would not overpay for moving up.  Since 1998, the Bills have overpaid four #1's for Bledsoe, RJ, EJ, and JP instead of drafting BPA and stacking roster with talent.

so 1st on JP instead of drafting Steven Jackson or Bob Sanders or waiting until 90th pick and selected Matt Schaub

 

so 1st on EJ instead of drafting Leveon Bell or DeAndre Hopkins

 

a #1 for RJ instead of drafting Takeo Spikes or Randy Moss

 

a #1 for Bledsoe instead of drafting Troy Palamuiu or Anquan Boldin

 

Einstein's definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results

 

That is why you don't overreach for QB, you don't squander draft picks, and you ALWAYS DRAFT BPA!

 

I agree with this - folks - we ARE not a QB away from being a heavyweight, not by a long shot, there are holes to fill and we have draft capitol to do that with.  I would pick BPA based on NEED - who knows what Bills Brass is thinking but I would gander a guess they are rebuilding not throwing away an entire draft for one person.  Besides - how did we get all these picks in the first place????  We will continue to collect them.....right now stock the cupboards with the peeps we need - this lunacy and yes I will call a spade a spade - this lunacy of throwing a whole draft into the toilet for some marginal talent @ QB is NUTS!

 

On another topic - not too sure how that Ivory signing is gonna pan out - y'all do know he was one of the worst backs in the NFL the last 2 years right?  Hoping he finds a spark but we just committed a TON o money for this guy - see L. Blount last season and his 1.3 mill versus 6 mill for Ivory.....

[Jay_Fixit]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

Overreaching for QB's I will never understand.  The depth of this draft is front 7 and interior oline.  So I would load up on front 7 and interior oline, and contemplate a QB at 21.  I would not overpay for moving up.  Since 1998, the Bills have overpaid four #1's for Bledsoe, RJ, EJ, and JP instead of drafting BPA and stacking roster with talent.

so 1st on JP instead of drafting Steven Jackson or Bob Sanders or waiting until 90th pick and selected Matt Schaub

 

so 1st on EJ instead of drafting Leveon Bell or DeAndre Hopkins

 

a #1 for RJ instead of drafting Takeo Spikes or Randy Moss

 

a #1 for Bledsoe instead of drafting Troy Palamuiu or Anquan Boldin

 

Einstein's definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results

 

That is why you don't overreach for QB, you don't squander draft picks, and you ALWAYS DRAFT BPA!

Actually that’s not his definition of insanity. That’s hearsay.

[Westside Madness]

2 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

I always see BPA as subjective- meaning the player may not be the best, talent wise, but he fits what you’re trying to do better than the more talented player- ergo, making the player selected the BPA.

This is literally the opposite of BPA. 

[BillsVet]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillsGospel said:

Honestly what would Takeo Spikes, Leveon Bell, Deandre Hopkins be good for if our QB can only get us 3 points in a meaningful playoff game? This is supposedly the deepest QB draft since 2004 and we should take DL or OL? At what point will we ever get a chance to get a franchise QB? Some experts say there are 4-5 in this draft, most drafts there are 1 maybe a 2nd, there is 0 reason to bypass QB this year unless we get Kirk Cousins which is very unlikely imo. 

 

Quentin Nelson is by many accounts the best guard prospect to come along in a while. A team with a need at the position isn't taking him at 5 even if he is BPA.

 

This is a nuanced topic and shoe-horning it into a black or white thing is absurd. Indianapolis has an OL issue, but there's no way in heck they take Nelson 3rd overall. 

 

This debate of BPA or need has to factor in positional value. It's great to have interior DL, Interior OL, non-pass rushing LBs, safeties, and RB's who are perennial pro bowl players. It's better to have them at the positions which game outcomes more, particularly those in the passing game: QB, WR, perhaps OT, top pass rushers, and CBs who can cover. And those guys are getting drafted, even if a lesser prospect, ahead of the top guard available.