always draft BPA

[Pete]

Overreaching for QB's I will never understand.  The depth of this draft is front 7 and interior oline.  So I would load up on front 7 and interior oline, and contemplate a QB at 21.  I would not overpay for moving up.  Since 1998, the Bills have overpaid four #1's for Bledsoe, RJ, EJ, and JP instead of drafting BPA and stacking roster with talent.

so 1st on JP instead of drafting Steven Jackson or Bob Sanders or waiting until 90th pick and selected Matt Schaub

 

so 1st on EJ instead of drafting Leveon Bell or DeAndre Hopkins

 

a #1 for RJ instead of drafting Takeo Spikes or Randy Moss

 

a #1 for Bledsoe instead of drafting Troy Palamuiu or Anquan Boldin

 

Einstein's definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results

 

That is why you don't overreach for QB, you don't squander draft picks, and you ALWAYS DRAFT BPA!

[Fan in San Diego]

Amen

[Buffalo Bills Detective]

7 minutes ago, Pete said:

Overreaching for QB's I will never understand.  The depth of this draft is front 7 and interior oline.  So I would load up on front 7 and interior oline, and contemplate a QB at 21.  I would not overpay for moving up.  Since 1998, the Bills have overpaid four #1's for Bledsoe, RJ, EJ, and JP instead of drafting BPA and stacking roster with talent.

so 1st on JP instead of drafting Steven Jackson or Bob Sanders or waiting until 90th pick and selected Matt Schaub

 

so 1st on EJ instead of drafting Leveon Bell or DeAndre Hopkins

 

a #1 for RJ instead of drafting Takeo Spikes or Randy Moss

 

a #1 for Bledsoe instead of drafting Troy Palamuiu or Anquan Boldin

 

Einstein's definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results

 

That is why you don't overreach for QB, you don't squander draft picks, and you ALWAYS DRAFT BPA!

So, you're grand scheme is to take BPA at 21 and 22 and then take Luke Falk or Mike White or Kyle Lauletta in the 2nd?

[Jay_Fixit]

I’m always down for BPA. Always.

 

Unless a franchise QB is in the cards. Then you do what you can to get him. 

 

 

[Pete]

12 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

So, you're grand scheme is to take BPA at 21 and 22 and then take Luke Falk or Mike White or Kyle Lauletta in the 2nd?

Free agency hasn't even started.  Like I stated- I would contemplate a QB at 21..  If Lamar Jackson and the big 4 are gone- I am not drafting Rudolph at 21.  There are some tremendous prospects at LB, C,  G, and DT that should be available.  Those are all positions that need upgrading.   We could have 2 new quality starters with 21,22.   I stick to my board.  

 

Edited March 6, 2018 by Pete

[Kirby Jackson]

In general I agree with the philosophy. QB is the only exception IMO (and that’s because their value always gets inflated). I would reach (no more than a round) on a QB. Other than that it should ALWAYS be BPA and tiebreakers go to impact positions (pass rusher, elite skill player, LT, #1 CB). 

[KDIGGZ]

There are 4 QB's in the top 10 players. How is that reaching?

[26TrapDraw]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

So, you're grand scheme is to take BPA at 21 and 22 and then take Luke Falk or Mike White or Kyle Lauletta in the 2nd?

If we were a QB away that would be one thing. If we stay put and use four of our five picks in the top 100 and get 4 day 1 starters it would not be the end of the world. I get everyone saying we have the draft capital to move up and take our QB top five. The thing that makes me think it won't happen is McDermott's comment about being further away than people think. 

[MikeSpeed]

5 minutes ago, Pete said:

Free agency hasn't even started.  Like I stated- I would contemplate a QB at 21..  If Lamar Jackson and the big 4 are gone- I am not drafting Mayfield at 21.  There are some tremendous prospects at LB, C,  G, and DT that should be available.  Those are all positions that need upgrading.   We could have 2 new quality starters with 21,22.   I stick to my board.  

 

What happens when (insert pick number here) the BPA is not a QB through the entire draft? Tony Dungy said it's always BPA in a position of NEED.

Edited March 6, 2018 by MikeSpeed

[JaCrispy]

I always see BPA as subjective- meaning the player may not be the best, talent wise, but he fits what you’re trying to do better than the more talented player- ergo, making the player selected the BPA.

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

In general I agree with the philosophy. QB is the only exception IMO (and that’s because their value always gets inflated). I would reach (no more than a round) on a QB. Other than that it should ALWAYS be BPA and tiebreakers go to impact positions (pass rusher, elite skill player, LT, #1 CB). 

That exception is a chief consideration in this current draft.  If we wait for 21 on qb, you are probably counting on the fifth or sixth best qb as your eventual starter.  This year, I would trade up for Mayfield, Rosen, or Darnold (that's my order of preference.)

[Pete]

Just now, MikeSpeed said:

What happens when (insert pick number here) the BPA is not a QB through the entire draft? Tony Dungy said it's always BPS in a position of NEED.

You have a pretty stacked team with Tyrod battling a free agent QB and Peterman for starting job

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, Dr. Who said:

That exception is a chief consideration in this current draft.  If we wait for 21 on qb, you are probably counting on the fifth or sixth best qb as your eventual starter.  This year, I would trade up for Mayfield, Rosen, or Darnold (that's my order of preference.)

Yep, this is a good draft to take that swing. It is a good QB draft and a pretty bad draft in general. Players will probably be drafted almost a full round ahead of their talent. This is a good time to try to land your guy.

[RochesterRob]

1 minute ago, kdiggz said:

There are 4 QB's in the top 10 players. How is that reaching?

  Because it will require at least 3 number 1's and most likely 3 number 2's to get the Bills up into the top 4 to make a selection.  That is where at least 2 or 3 of the top QB's will most likely go.  There all kinds of downside to a trade such as this.  People need to start using their heads and stop thinking the Colts or Giants are going to do a trade with us that involves iffy players, low round picks, and belly button lint from Bruce Smith.

[Dr. Who]

Just now, RochesterRob said:

  Because it will require at least 3 number 1's and most likely 3 number 2's to get the Bills up into the top 4 to make a selection.  That is where at least 2 or 3 of the top QB's will most likely go.  There all kinds of downside to a trade such as this.  People need to start using their heads and stop thinking the Colts or Giants are going to do a trade with us that involves iffy players, low round picks, and belly button lint from Bruce Smith.

Your minimum scenario is at the high end of the most expensive possible.

[John from Riverside]

16 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

So, you're grand scheme is to take BPA at 21 and 22 and then take Luke Falk or Mike White or Kyle Lauletta in the 2nd?

Im still waiting for you to see what you would do.....apologize if I missed it.

[H2o]

You're afforded to do this if you have your QB in place. We don't have that right now. I don't put much stock into the FA class either. Cousins is going to Minny, mark it down. Outside of that there are question marks and no one I would be good with as tabbing "the guy". We have to find our Franchise QB. 

[RochesterRob]

5 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Your minimum scenario is at the high end of the most expensive possible.

  In a normal year yes.  But the way things are shaping up with the top 3 QB's likely to go at the very top of the draft changes things.  The current teams at the top of the draft order will rightly seek a premium on top of normal value for a trade up.  It's supply and demand at its most basic.

[Buffalo Bills Detective]

11 minutes ago, Pete said:

You have a pretty stacked team with Tyrod battling a free agent QB and Peterman for starting job

God help us...

[TheElectricCompany]

A few comments...

 

You have the benefit of hindsight. Easy to say in 2018 that Randy Moss was better than Rob Johnson, or D.Hopkins over EJ Manuel. Good luck trying to predict the upcoming draft class with a 40-50% bust rate. 

 

BPA is impossible to define. Every team has an entirely different draft board, weighted differently based on dozens of factors. Our perception of BPA is largely fueled by what Kiper, Mayock, and other draft bigshots say. Ever notice how the SI, CBS, NFLN and ESPN big boards are pretty much the same thing? The differences between them are minimal. 

 

You can't just go pure BPA. Example...Denver Broncos at #5. Let's say Bradley Chubb is there, truly an elite prospect as a pass rusher and he's arguably be the best player on the board, but they'd be foolish to pick him. Von Miller has a $120 million contract, another 1st rounder in Shane Ray who has looked great when healthy and a viable rotational guy in Shaq Barrett. You just don't have a need for another OLB/DE. What is Barkley fell to the Bills? He'd be the BPA, but we really don't benefit from picking him, unless you want to stop giving Shady the ball. 

 

You should pick the best player available, at a key position of need. 

 

 

Edited March 6, 2018 by TheElectricCompany