My way too early prediction.

[wppete]

That is way too expensive of a trade up. I would wait and Draft Mason Rudolph with pick #21. Build around him and build a defense. 

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, wppete said:

That is way too expensive of a trade up. I would wait and Draft Mason Rudolph with pick #21. Build around him and build a defense. 

 

Is LA or Philly caring about what they gave up?

[starrymessenger]

41 minutes ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

I'd only trade up for Mayfield, Darnold and Rosen.

 

I've watched a bunch of Allen games  and he did not look good. He has ALL the talent in the world but I'm not trading up for potential. I really think he is a third rounder but as we know QBs go early.  if the big 3 are gone I would take him with our first but somehow I'm hoping we get Mayfield.

 

 

 

Ok so you have probably seen more than me. I've seen the 2017 bowl game (can't bring myself to say "potato bowl"), the highlight reels and tape of his Iowa game. I watched Iowa because of the step up in competition and because he was said to have performed poorly. Though he lost, I thought he did some good things. His team was not very good.

When you say "big three" I assume you realize that Mayfield is not very big. Do you really think that Beane is going to draft a signal caller who is probably less than 5'11"? That ain't like Cam or any of the other QBs on Carolina's roster.  And hasn't Beane in the past expressed his preference for big pocket passers as a QB type?

According to the pundits and wise heads I've seen , the "big three" are Darnold, Rosen and Allen, not Mayfield. Does anyone with any cred grade Mayfield ahead of Allen? 

I understand that you draft Allen (if at all) based on how you think he projects, in other words on the basis of potential. But to me the same has to be said about Darnold. His throwing motion is awful, his throwing mechanics are bad and his footwork leaves much to be desired. He's a top prospect because of the things that he does well and the hope that he can improve on the things he doesn't. The only guy who gets drafted on the basis of what he is and what he can do now is Rosen IMO.

Your view that Allen is really a third round pick (who we all know will go higher) is shared by others. He's the most polarizing pick (except maybe for your guy) in the draft. Since you've seen more of him than I have, what is it that prevents him from being better? What is he bad at? Where are the principal risks with him?

 

Edited January 8, 2018 by starrymessenger

[Buffalo Barbarian]

1 minute ago, starrymessenger said:

 

Ok so you have probably seen more than me. I've seen the 2017 bowl game (can't bring myself to say "potato bowl"), the highlight reels and tape of his Iowa game. I watched Iowa because of the step up in competition and because he was said to performed poorly. Though he lost, I thought he did some good things. His team was not very good.

When you say "big three" I assume you realize that Mayfield is not very big. Do you really believe that Beane is going to draft a signal caller who is probably less than 5'11"? That ain't like Cam or any of the other QBs on Carolina's roster.  And hasn't he in the past expressed his preference for big pocket passers as a QB type?

According to the pundits and wise heads I've seen , the "big three" are Darnold, Rosen and Allen, not Mayfield. Does anyone with any cred grade Mayfield ahead of Allen? 

I understand that you draft Allen (if at all) based on how you think he projects, in other words on the basis of potential. But to me the same has to be said about Darnold. His throwing motion is awful, his throwing mechanics are and his footwork leaves much to be desired. He's a top prospect because of the things that he does well and the hope that he can improve on the things he doesn't. The only guy who gets drafted on the basis of what he is and what he can do now is Rosen IMO.

Your view that Allen is really a third round pick (who we all know will go higher) is shared by others. He's the most polarizing pick (except maybe for your guy) in the draft. Since you've seen more of him than I have, what is it that prevents him from being better? What is he bad at? Where are the principal risks with him?

 

 

Lol, yes I realize Baker is short. Big 3 means top 3.

 

Cam sux, hope we don't draft anyone like him.

 

Allen also sux.

 

I would rate him above Allen, and have seen others also and he is usually in the to 4 with Rudolph as the fourth.

 

Darnold was amazing last year and and team's are hoping they get that Darnold and not this years (not that he was horrible just not as good as last season).

 

 

[Fadingpain]

I don't like the deal outlined in the OP.

 

However, I would bet a decent amount of money that we are going to draft a QB and I dot mean a 5th round project type.

We are going to single out "our guy" and do what it takes to get him, keeping in mind that we will NOT have the pick of the litter.  So "our guy" won't mean who we think is best in the draft; it will mean who we think is best in draft THAT THE BILLS CAN GET.

 

Certain guys are going to flat out be unavailable and unobtainable.

But there is a middle ground there we can still get a top name at a slightly lower spot by trading up to get him.

 

I don't know how it will play out or exactly how the contenders will be ranked when the time comes, but the guy I continue to love is Mason Rudolph from Oklahoma State.

 

 

 

5 hours ago, CajunBillsBacker said:

If all these QB’s are going to go ahead of the Bills, then let them. If teams are going to start reaching for QB’s, then I hope the Bills are not one of them. Stay put and grab a QB if one gets to us, if not, then some damn good players will fall to us at other needs.

 

Every year there’s always a player or two where we are like “OMG I can’t believe he’s still there!” Only for the Bills to pass on him and then he falls even further than expected. I think this year it’ll be a couple QB’s. Don’t be surprised if Rosen and Darnold are the only QB’s selected before the Bills are on the clock.

No way that happens.

[starrymessenger]

1 minute ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

Lol, yes I realize Baker is short. Big 3 means top 3.

 

Cam sux, hope we don't draft anyone like him.

 

Allen also sux.

 

I would rate him above Allen, and have seen others also and he is usually in the to 4 with Rudolph as the fourth.

 

Darnold was amazing last year and and team's are hoping they get that Darnold and not this years (not that he was horrible just not as good as last season).

 

 

 

Well if nothing else it's going to be a fascinating off season.

[Fadingpain]

50 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Only two QBs i trade up for. Rosen and Darnold

 

Fringe a third right now Mayfield 

 

 

Allen will be and should be one of the top 4 QBs picked. (And likey has the Highest ceiling out of the bunch)

Darnold's stock has dropped this season as the expected progress just wasn't there.

 

He'll still go super high though.

 

 

2 hours ago, 2003Contenders said:

If the team's scouts and front office truly believe that there is a "can't miss" QB in this draft, they you give up what is necessary to get him.

 

That said, I absolutely do not want them taking a QB in the first round (trading up or otherwise) just for the sake of taking a QB. That is what they did the last two times that they drafted one in the first round (Losman and EJ).

Yes but this year is not going to be like Losman or EJ.

 

EJ's QB draft class, in particular, was terrible and everyone knew it and said it.

 

This year is not norma; there are a bunch of guys that look like they are going to be good NFL QBs.

 

You never know for sure, of course, but you can't compare moving up in THIS draft to taking freaking EJ Manuel, who never, ever, at any point in his collegiate career, looked like he might be a good NFL QB.

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

If we pick Allen in the 1st I will bang my head hard against the nearest wall.... if we trade up for him it will be the biggest mistake this franchise has made in a generation.

 

 

Tom Donahoe hiring Gregg Williams extracted the identity of the team and halted about 14 years of organizational momentum.

 

Hiring Dick Jauron took that to another level creating the "not really in the NFL"  perception that has persisted until about a week ago.

 

It would take A LOT more than blowing a couple years worth of high picks to top those dandy decisions.    

 

You'd have expected that after missing the playoffs for 17 years they would have made it by sheer force of talent..........just an overwhelming amount of high picks from years of losing..........and yet the only one of their first rounders they had on the field was the one from THIS year 3D White.    

 

 

[Rico]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Tom Donahoe hiring Gregg Williams extracted the identity of the team and halted about 14 years of organizational momentum.

 

Hiring Dick Jauron took that to another level creating the "not really in the NFL"  perception that has persisted until about a week ago.

 

It would take A LOT more than blowing a couple years worth of high picks to top those dandy decisions.    

 

You'd have expected that after missing the playoffs for 17 years they would have made it by sheer force of talent..........just an overwhelming amount of high picks from years of losing..........and yet the only one of their first rounders they had on the field was the one from THIS year 3D White.    

 

 

Shaq would've been there on the bench if he didn't get hurt.

[/dev/null]

1/2 Darnold/Rosen to the Browns and Giants

3 Barkley to Indianapolis

4 Trade time.  Jets #6, Dolphins #11, Redskins #13, and Cardinals #15 get into a bidding contest to jump ahead of Denver for Baker Mayfield

5 Denver settles for their #4 QB on the board

 

Do you really want to trade away our bonanza of picks for the 5th best QB?

[YoloinOhio]

56 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Plays Nobody is one big issue

 

same as Mayfield actually 

 

 

Should be very very cautious looking at Big 12 QBs

I don’t get this... which QBs meet the criteria of “plays somebody”?

 

 It’s about nfl traits. Carson Wentz played at N Dakota St. I don’t think who you play is a major factor either way. And it’s not about stats either. Imo.

Edited January 9, 2018 by YoloinOhio

[Buffalo Barbarian]

30 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

 

Well if nothing else it's going to be a fascinating off season.

 

That is for sure, I just pray we get a QB who turns out to be elite (or least pretty good)

 

 

[Manther]

7 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

I don’t necessarily agree with that. I think the reason they didn’t take one early last year was because the FO was getting fired the Monday after the draft, and replaced with the FO they wanted to have choose the QB of the future. 

 

They didn’t want the new QB linked to Whaley and they didn’t trust his team’s evaluations because it was not per McD’s process. They now have a year of QB evaluation from Team McBeane and that is who they will draft. Imo.

 

also i do believe the reason they wanted the extra 1st was to move up for that QB if needed. 

I think this is absolutely the case.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

23 minutes ago, /dev/null said:

1/2 Darnold/Rosen to the Browns and Giants

3 Barkley to Indianapolis

4 Trade time.  Jets #6, Dolphins #11, Redskins #13, and Cardinals #15 get into a bidding contest to jump ahead of Denver for Baker Mayfield

5 Denver settles for their #4 QB on the board

 

Do you really want to trade away our bonanza of picks for the 5th best QB?

 

Ugh! Really hate that Mayfield is seen going so high. I really Want him here and don't want to trade up to do it. I'm hoping all the other QBs go ahead of him we get him at 21.

 

 

[Jay_Fixit]

I want nothing to do with Allen. 

 

I’d rather watch Rosie O’Donnell bathe.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

1 minute ago, Jay_Fixit said:

I want nothing to do with Allen. 

 

I’d rather watch Rosie O’Donnell bathe.

 

 

 

Maybe we can draft Cody O'Connell instead

 

 

[MAJBobby]

4 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

I don’t get this... which QBs meet the criteria of “plays somebody”?

 

 It’s about nfl traits. Carson Wentz played at N Dakota St. I don’t think who you play is a major factor either way. And it’s not about stats either. Imo.

 

Telling you scouts downgrade Big 12 QBs and rightfully should

[reddogblitz]

17 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

If we pick Allen in the 1st I will bang my head hard against the nearest wall.... if we trade up for him it will be the biggest mistake this franchise has made in a generation.

 

I don't want any part of drafting a QB high that has accuracy issues.  accuracy is one of the main requirements for the job.  Don't We have 3 inaccurate QBs on staff now?

[YoloinOhio]

9 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Telling you scouts downgrade Big 12 QBs and rightfully should

Why? 

[BuffaloHokie13]

Don't know if this staff buys into the Parcells rules, but Rudolph checks all of his boxes even if some find him uninspiring.

[ddaryl]

Allen IMO is EJ Manual he just has not been consistently accurate.. YOU CAN NOT TEACH ACCURACY.. You have it or you don't. I wouldn't touch a QB in the draft that didn't maintain an over 60% comp % regardless of arm strength and athletic ability IMO.. Sure as hell not a 1st rd draft and DEFINITELY not trading hte farm regarless of combine numbers which IMO is nothng more than fools gold.. Game tape tells the tale.

						Passing
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Career	Wyoming					365	649	56.2	5066	7.8	7.7	44	21	137.7
2015	Wyoming	MWC	SO	QB	2	4	6	66.7	51	8.5	8.5	0	0	138.1
*2016	Wyoming	MWC	SO	QB	14	209	373	56.0	3203	8.6	8.3	28	15	144.9
2017	Wyoming	MWC	JR	QB	11	152	270	56.3	1812	6.7	6.9	16	6	127.8

Edited January 9, 2018 by ddaryl

[Perry Turtle]

Rumor is that Cleveland is high on Allen.  What should the Bills trade if Rosen or Darnold are sitting there?

[YoloinOhio]

15 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Don't know if this staff buys into the Parcells rules, but Rudolph checks all of his boxes even if some find him uninspiring.

Based on McD’s last draft, i would say it’s a good bet that they do.

[ddaryl]

14 hours ago, Jay_Fixit said:

I want nothing to do with Allen. 

 

I’d rather watch Rosie O’Donnell bathe.

 

 

I agree with the Allen assessment, but I'm on the fence when facing this choice

8 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said:

Rumor is that Cleveland is high on Allen.  What should the Bills trade if Rosen or Darnold are sitting there?

 

 

If Rosen slips then you have the potential of Bills blockbuster trade upwards..

Cleveland doens't have a great reputation but they can't be this stupid...or can they ????

[Perry Turtle]

3 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

I agree with the Allen assessment, but I'm on the fence when facing this choice

 

 

If Rosen slips then you have the potential of Bills blockbuster trade upwards..

Cleveland doens't have a great reputation but they can't be this stupid...or can they ????

Cleveland? Stupid? Um, yep.

[jrober38]

18 hours ago, starrymessenger said:

 

His stat sheet is lousy no doubt. Some folks who have followed him and seen all of his games say it would be a mistake to think that he is truly a sub 60% passer. Poor supporting cast and he's the farthest thing from a check down artist. He's a deep ball thrower. No clutch of cheap and easy receptions in that 56%. 

His physical attributes for playing the position are nothing short of phenomenal. He will wow them at the combine & senior bowl. He will be no less than the third QB off the board. 

 

I'm not spending a 1st round QB on a guy with a college completion percentage in the mid 50s when there is ZERO history of success with players with similar stats. 

18 hours ago, horned dogs said:

When you see a guy who ranked 7TH in the MWC in passing....you just gotta pull the trigger!

 

I don't get it.

 

Might as well resign EJ Manuel while we're at it. Physically they're the same guy. 

[Scooby77]

21 hours ago, the skycap said:

People are sleeping on this guy's talent/resolve!! Correct his footwork like GB did with Aaron Rodgers.

There are already rumors that NFL teams are going to ask him to try out at receiver when he does team visits.  Tyrod 2.0 in my opinion, with better college stats.

[CuddyDark]

What a way to set up back. I hope they ain't that dumb. Destroy two drafts for one player is bogus.

[Chuck Wagon]

3 hours ago, Perry Turtle said:

Rumor is that Cleveland is high on Allen.  What should the Bills trade if Rosen or Darnold are sitting there?

 

I would give #21, #22, 2019 1st for Rosen or Darnold without blinking. 

[Batman1876]

QBs have their draft stock fall through the season and rise as we get closer to the draft.  I can only think of one QB who was talked about as a first round pick in January  and then fell out of the first round (Claussen). At least 5 QBs will be off the board by the 21st pick.  Rosen and Darnold are talked about as top guys, Allen will be seen by someone as Wentz 2.0 and Jackson will be seen by someone as Watson 2.0 and Mayfield will blow someone away with his hard work and production. So there is no way any of them are available at 21 unless some big shakeup happens with one of them.  

[Manther]

On 2018-01-08 at 2:04 PM, Binghamton Beast said:

The Bills gave up two firsts, a second, third and Greg Bell once upon a time for an OLB.

 

Sure, different times but is there anyone on this board who wouldn’t like to have gone back in time and meet Houston's demands so we could have drafted Roethlisberger? Heck, Donahoe may still be our GM if he did.

 

The key is making the correct evaluation on the player.

 

Agreed it is important to grade the player correctly.  I also think it is very important to grade players consistently over the years.  Evaluating them on a system that compares players on the same scale over time.  Any how players grade out at their position over time.

 

Also, you need to compare your pre draft rankings with how they actually panned our and continue to evaluate.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/8/2018 at 6:40 AM, njbuff said:

The Bills need a big strong young QB that they can develop and be the starter for 15 years.

Now what I am about to say may or may not work out for the Bills in my scenario, but it's something I can see happening a mile away.

Here we go..........

 

(....)

 

i predict the Bills trade 21 and 22 to the Colts along with 2019's 1st and 2nd round picks and it might take another high pick, for Allen (or one of the other fall if the Giants or Browns love Allen).

 

It's a lot to give up, but the Bills need to do it for a major QB prospect.

Need to go bold to get gold.

What do you think?

 

So you may recall the Redskins gave up 3 1sts and a 2nd for RGIII, who looked worth it his rookie season then fell off the face of the earth.

I would be much happier if the Bills backed up a Brinks truck for the Redskins 4th rounder that draft, who's been starting for them the last 3 1/2 years.

 

I could be wrong because I don't follow college football that closely, but from what I know there isn't 1 QB in this draft who is regarded as the equivalent of Andrew Luck, a complete prospect sure-thing.  And there's usually 1 good franchise QB per draft.  I guess 2016 got everyone excited because Goff and Wentz are both looking good.

 

The previous time QB went 1-2 was 2015, and it was:

Winston

Mariota

 

Would you be happy giving up 3 1sts and a 2nd for one of them?  Which?

How about 2014 (Blake Bortles)?

 

Just because draft pundits are all excited about 3-4 QB doesn't mean there are 2 or 3 QB worth giving up that much in a draft.

 

IMHO the Bills put too much emphasis on big and strong.  You could see it in the QB we went after - Manuel, Cardale Jones, etc.

Sure other things equal bigger is great, but other things are often not equal.
 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 hours ago, ddaryl said:

Allen IMO is EJ Manual he just has not been consistently accurate.. YOU CAN NOT TEACH ACCURACY.. You have it or you don't. I wouldn't touch a QB in the draft that didn't maintain an over 60% comp % regardless of arm strength and athletic ability IMO.. Sure as hell not a 1st rd draft and DEFINITELY not trading hte farm regarless of combine numbers which IMO is nothng more than fools gold.. Game tape tells the tale.

						Passing
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Career	Wyoming					365	649	56.2	5066	7.8	7.7	44	21	137.7
2015	Wyoming	MWC	SO	QB	2	4	6	66.7	51	8.5	8.5	0	0	138.1
*2016	Wyoming	MWC	SO	QB	14	209	373	56.0	3203	8.6	8.3	28	15	144.9
2017	Wyoming	MWC	JR	QB	11	152	270	56.3	1812	6.7	6.9	16	6	127.8

 

Oh, Geesh, if this is what the guy's stats are NFW I want to see us give up 3 1sts and a 2nd, regardless of how great he looks in his Jammies. 

This is a guy who may pan out or who may not.

 

7 hours ago, Batman1876 said:

QBs have their draft stock fall through the season and rise as we get closer to the draft.  I can only think of one QB who was talked about as a first round pick in January  and then fell out of the first round (Claussen). At least 5 QBs will be off the board by the 21st pick.  Rosen and Darnold are talked about as top guys, Allen will be seen by someone as Wentz 2.0 and Jackson will be seen by someone as Watson 2.0 and Mayfield will blow someone away with his hard work and production. So there is no way any of them are available at 21 unless some big shakeup happens with one of them.  

 

You might be right, but that would be very very unusual.  It has not happened in the last 10 years, certainly, despite the massive "hype" machine that young QBs' agents rev up.  I don't follow it enough, but I'd be very surprised if Claussen were the only QB talked of as a 1st round pick in Jan who fell.  Wasn't Geno Smith hyped up as a 1st rounder?  Ryan Mallet?  Colt McCoy?  Then there are QB talked about as 1st round picks, and drafted in the first, but who really shouldn't have been.

 

There has only been 1 draft in the last 10 years in which 4 QB went prior to pick 21.  That was 2011 and the QB were Newton, Locker, Gabbert and Ponder.

 

As you might gather from that list, it would be even rarer for all 4 of those QB to develop into a quality player.  2016 is unusual in that both the top guys (Goff, Wentz) look good so far. 

On 1/8/2018 at 6:47 PM, Jay_Fixit said:

I want nothing to do with Allen. 

 

I’d rather watch Rosie O’Donnell bathe.

 

Your kink is OK?

[Batman1876]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Oh, Geesh, if this is what the guy's stats are NFW I want to see us give up 3 1sts and a 2nd, regardless of how great he looks in his Jammies. 

This is a guy who may pan out or who may not.

 

 

You might be right, but that would be very very unusual.  It has not happened in the last 10 years, certainly, despite the massive "hype" machine that young QBs' agents rev up.  I don't follow it enough, but I'd be very surprised if Claussen were the only QB talked of as a 1st round pick in Jan who fell.  Wasn't Geno Smith hyped up as a 1st rounder?  Ryan Mallet?  Colt McCoy?  Then there are QB talked about as 1st round picks, and drafted in the first, but who really shouldn't have been.

 

There has only been 1 draft in the last 10 years in which 4 QB went prior to pick 21.  That was 2011 and the QB were Newton, Locker, Gabbert and Ponder.

 

As you might gather from that list, it would be even rarer for all 4 of those QB to develop into a quality player.  2016 is unusual in that both the top guys (Goff, Wentz) look good so far. 

 

Your kink is OK?

I forgot Mallet, Geno was talked about as first round but always in the context of not being worth it but some team will reach so I know it’s splitting hairs. I can’t recall the last time this many QBs were in the conversation as first rou d picks at this point in the process. 1983 had 5 taken 3 were HOF, 1999 had 5, two were good starters (until Culpeper got hurt and was never the same) , 2004 had 4 taken, 3 were great and 2011 had 4 taken one was great. That points to 50/50 odds meaning if 5 or 6 are taken odds would favor  2 or 3 being good. Given the needy teams and the number of successful options in this draft a bunch will be taken early, 

[MAJBobby]

On 1/9/2018 at 8:11 AM, YoloinOhio said:

Why? 

 

The defenses or lack there of they play against. 

[starrymessenger]

23 hours ago, Perry Turtle said:

Rumor is that Cleveland is high on Allen.  What should the Bills trade if Rosen or Darnold are sitting there?

 

Allen could be taken #1 overall. Personally if his head is right I would take Rosen ahead of him but I see Allen and Darnold as equivalent value with a similar risk reward profile. My guess is that Allen winds up in Arizona or Denver.

[jrober38]

Allen going #1 overall would be the worst #1 overall pick of my lifetime. 

 

Would be right up there with the Raiders taking Jamarcus Russell #1 overall. 

[starrymessenger]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

Allen going #1 overall would be the worst #1 overall pick of my lifetime. 

 

Would be right up there with the Raiders taking Jamarcus Russell #1 overall. 

 

Allen may or may not succeed. That comes with the turf. But to compare him with Jamarcus is flat out ridiculous. JR was a great athlete who completely lacked the intangibles, the work ethic and the desire to be great. If you had taken the time to acquaint yourself with Allen you would know that his intangibles, work ethic and desire to be great are top shelf (even if he is also a great athlete lol).