Gutless Call to Punt

[BillnutinHouston]

16 hours ago, BillsEnthusiast said:

 

I'm a McD fan and I don't think that was the right call. If anything, THATS the time for Toldozer. 

 

There is NO time for Toldozer.  He's done.

[teef]

44 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Ole Sammy Watkins got another 3 receptions.  That's 34 for the year.

well...the coach is telling people not to throw to him.

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, teef said:

well...the coach is telling people not to throw to him.

 

It's criminal Kupp is getting more production....it's just criminal.

[oldmanfan]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

It's criminal Kupp is getting more production....it's just criminal.

Yeah.  It's really ruining their record so far.

Watkins is losing a lot of $$ this year.

[26CornerBlitz]

How did this turn into a Watkins thread?

[oldmanfan]

Regarding the call, if anything it took a lot of guts to rely on pinning them down in their end.  Gutless is the opposite of what that call was.

[Royale with Cheese]

5 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Yeah.  It's really ruining their record so far.

Watkins is losing a lot of $$ this year.

 

I can see Watkins getting a similar contract to like Terrell Pryor like a 1 year/$8 million.  

He's got talent but the production just isn't there with Watkins.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[MAJBobby]

I slept on it and looked more rationally. 

 

Yep still the wrong decision to punt on 4th and 1. 

 

And even worse decision to call the TO before said punt 

Edited December 11, 2017 by MAJBobby

[26CornerBlitz]

9 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

I slept on it and looked more rationally. 

 

Yep still the wrong decision to punt on 4th and 1. 

 

And even worse decision to call the TO before said punt 

 

That makes it even more head scratching to blow a TO and still punt.   We're counting on McDermott to match wits with the best coaches in the game?   Does not bode well for this moving forward. 

Edited December 11, 2017 by 26CornerBlitz

[Gugny]

3 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

That makes even more head scratching to blow a TO and still punt.   We're counting on McDermott to match wits with the best coaches in the game?   Does not bode well for this moving forward. 

 

I was baffled by the TO call, as well.  But he's a rookie head coach and this game had a lot riding on it.  I don't think it's any indication that, moving forward, he won't get better with his decision-making and time out management.

[Royale with Cheese]

11 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

I slept on it and looked more rationally. 

 

Yep still the wrong decision to punt on 4th and 1. 

 

And even worse decision to call the TO before said punt 

 

I thought for sure he re-thought the punt and was going to send out the offense.  Man was I pissed to see the punting team again.

[HappyDays]

McDermott isn't inherently conservative. We had two 4th down attempts in yesterday's game. We failed to convert both. He probably just trusted the defense more than the offense and who could blame him?

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Chandler#81]

There’s only one possible conclusion to this narrative. The Snow Gods were with us yesterday and showed us mercy. They wouldn’t let the gutless coach end the season in front of the defiant humans who braved their winter wrath for their beleaguered ‘hope against hope’. They forced an otherworldly penalty to take 2 points off the board and blew hard right the XP attempt -to no avail. Even when the huge-headed bumpkin Coach gave the Colts a last minute turnover, they had just enough combined breath left to blow that one inches left of the goalposts. But they found super courage in OT when the melon-headed winter hater tried to screw the hardy faithful by punting on 4th & 1, refusing to win. They chose Incognito -the epitome of anti-Process players- to deftly feign one block, then burst out and clear the lone player with a chance to tackle Shady as he raced to the winning score. 

Thank you, Snow Gods!

I’m through with ‘the Process’.

[MAJBobby]

15 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

McDermott isn't inherently conservative. We had two 4th down attempts in yesterday's game. We failed to convert both. He probably just trusted the defense more than the offense and who could blame him?

 

And again you only can trust the defense after a punt?  What about trusting them if you fail to convert?

[26CornerBlitz]

2 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

There’s only one possible conclusion to this narrative. The Snow Gods were with us yesterday and showed us mercy. They wouldn’t let the gutless coach end the season in front of the defiant humans who braved their winter wrath for their beleaguered ‘hope against hope’. They forced an otherworldly penalty to take 2 points off the board and blew hard right the XP attempt -to no avail. Even when the huge-headed bumpkin Coach gave the Colts a last minute turnover, they had just enough combined breath left to blow that one inches left of the goalposts. But they found super courage in OT when the melon-headed winter hater tried to screw the hardy faithful by punting on 4th & 1, refusing to win. They chose Incognito -the epitome of anti-Process players- to deftly feign one block, then burst out and clear the lone player with a chance to tackle Shady as he raced to the winning score. 

Thank you, Snow Gods!

I’m through with ‘the Process’.

 

The football gods say yes to the Bills for once.  

[Shaw66]

 

Punting on 4^th and 1 was the right decision. 

 

Let me start by saying that I was watching the game at a sports bar.  The room was filled with the audio from another game, so I couldn’t hear the announcers for the Bills game.  Looking at the screen, it was impossible to know where the ball was because all the yard markings were obliterated.  The network only occasionally showed in writing where the ball was.  So when they got to 4^th and 1, I thought punting was a good idea because I would have guessed the Bills hadn’t crossed the 50.

 

If I had known that they were at the Colts 41, I would have said go for it.  And that would have been the wrong decision.  Here’s why:

 

The objective is to make the playoffs.  For the coaches and players, that’s all that matters.  And when you get to this point of the season, it’s almost like you’re already in the playoffs. 

 

The over-riding rule in playoffs is “survive and advance.”  In other words, it doesn’t matter how you survive, it doesn’t matter how ugly or how beautiful or whatever.  Survive.  Giving yourself another game where you have a chance is what you need.   Whether you can win that next game is irrelevant; just getting to the next game is all you want – you’ll worry about how to win that game later. 

 

Survive and advance is where the Bills are now, along with all the other teams in the AFC hovering around .500 and trying to get to the postseason. 

 

And in this period when you’re fighting to get into the playoffs, there is a second important point:  Tie games are closer to wins than to losses.   Why?  Well, 9-6-1 gets you into the playoffs over every 9-7 team, so you don’t have to look to tie-breakers.  8-7-1 gets you in over every 8-8 team, and this is one of those years were 8-8 could actually be enough.  

 

In other words, a tie is not a neutral result.   A tie is a positive result.  Yes, a win is better.  But a tie is more like a win than like a loss.  Stated differently, until you absolutely MUST win, it’s more important not to lose than it is to win.

 

Okay, with that in mind, go back to 4^th and 1 at the Colts 41.   I don’t know the exact probabilities, but looking just at winning or losing, I’d say that going for it on fourth down gave the Bills a 50-50 chance of winning or losing.  Why?   Because the chances of making the first down were around 50-50.  Whichever team had the ball on the next play would have had four minutes left and would have needed to move the ball about 25 yards to try a field goal.  The Bills would have needed 25 to get to the 15 to have a shot at 35-yard field goal into the wind, and the Colts would have need 25 to get to the Bills 35 to try a 50-yard field goal with the wind at their back.  We can argue about the percentages and how far they had to go, etc. but I think I’m in the ball park.

 

So in a two-outcome scenario, going for it is more or less a coin toss.   But it isn’t a two-outcome scenario; it’s three outcomes – win, lose or tie.  It isn’t 50-50; it’s more like 40-40-20. 

 

Given that the Bills are in the playoff hunt, and given that in the hunt ties are more like wins than losses, it’s easy to see why punting was the right call.  If the Bills punt, the chances that either the Bills or the Colts will win the game (if those are the only choices) are probably still 50-50.  The Colts have the ball, which is a plus for them, but they have a long way to go.  The Bills don’t have the ball but they have field position, but they also may run out of time.  

 

But those aren't the only choices; it’s a three outcome scenario.  Although if they punt the chances the Bills will win go down, probably pretty dramatically, the chances that they get a tie go way up.  I’d guess that punting with 4 minutes left reduces the chances of the Bills winning in those conditions to 20%, probably less.  But the chances of tying go UP from 20% to 60%. 

 

Remember, in the playoff hunt, winning is the objective, but not losing is more important than winning.  Going for it on 4^th and 1 the Bills had a 60% chance of not losing.   Punting they had an 80% chance of not losing.  Punting was the right call.

 

Survive and advance. 

 

[BillsfanAZ]

12 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

And again you only can trust the defense after a punt?  What about trusting them if you fail to convert?

Would you feel better about your defenses chances to get a stop with the other team having to drive on a long field or get a stop with other team with a short field?

[HappyDays]

21 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

And again you only can trust the defense after a punt?  What about trusting them if you fail to convert?

 

If we didn't convert the game was over. We would have lost field position.

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

If we didn't convert the game was over. We would have lost field position.

If Colts get two 1st downs the season is over.

 

And really what did the punt give you where did they take over their own 35

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

If we didn't convert the game was over. We would have lost field position.

And the importance of field position is magnified in low-scoring games. 

[MAJBobby]

11 minutes ago, BillsfanAZ said:

Would you feel better about your defenses chances to get a stop with the other team having to drive on a long field or get a stop with other team with a short field?

 

Doesn't matter do you trust your defense to get the ball back or don't you, cant have it both ways

[BillsfanAZ]

2 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Doesn't matter do you trust your defense to get the ball back or don't you, cant have it both ways

I think you are just digging in your heels. The defense has a better chance of getting a stop on a long field than they do on a short field. It is less likely for a team to drive 80 yards than it is for a team to drive 35 yards. 

[HappyDays]

6 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

If Colts get two 1st downs the season is over.

 

And really what did the punt give you where did they take over their own 35

 

I don't think that's how McDermott thought about it. For the fans we look ahead at every other team's schedule and we've already decided X team will have X wins. We've already decided a tie kicks us put of the playoff race. From McDermott's perspective he needs to get the best possible record and let the chips fall where they may. A tie is better than a loss. He took what seemed like a sure tie or a decent chance to win. Whereas a 4th down failed conversion would have significantly increased our chances of losing. It wasn't an easy decision and I don't think the probability would have been that different either way. He has gone for 4th and shorts before but maybe with Joe Webb as QB it isn't a good idea.

Edited December 11, 2017 by HappyDays

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, BillsfanAZ said:

I think you are just digging in your heels. The defense has a better chance of getting a stop on a long field than they do on a short field. It is less likely for a team to drive 80 yards than it is for a team to drive 35 yards. 

Nope just playing the proper %s that have statistically been proven

[SWATeam]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

Nope just playing the proper %s that have statistically been proven

Statistically proven in those conditions?

[BillsfanAZ]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

Nope just playing the proper %s that have statistically been proven

You keep eluding to this math but havent shown anything. There are no percentages that factor in weather, field conditions, and what players are available.

[HappyDays]

30 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

In other words, a tie is not a neutral result.   A tie is a positive result.  Yes, a win is better.  But a tie is more like a win than like a loss.  Stated differently, until you absolutely MUST win, it’s more important not to lose than it is to win.

 

Or I could have just quoted this. Exactly what I was thinking Shaw.

[Billsfan1972]

4 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

That makes even more head scratching to blow a TO and still punt.   We're counting on McDermott to match wits with the best coaches in the game?   Does not bode well for this moving forward. 

And he still defends the Peterman start vs. LAC.

 

Regardless it was 100% wrong and by some fluke it actually worked out.......  May be a first for Buffalo.

[MAJBobby]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't think that's how McDermott thought about it. For the fans we look ahead at every other team's schedule and we've already decided X team will have X wins. We've already decided a tie kicks us put of the playoff race. From McDermott's perspective he needs to get the best possible record and let the chips fall where they may. A tie is better than a loss. He took what seemed like a sure tie or a decent chance to win. Whereas a 4th down failed conversion would have significantly increased our chances of losing. It wasn't an easy decision and I don't think the probability would have been that different either way. He has gone for 4th and shorts before but maybe with Joe Webb as QB it isn't a good idea.

 

So that makes it better that my HC doesn't look at the big picture.  Bills lost a 20% chance to win on the Punt according to Number Fire (an analytics site).  So what are the better odds, picking up 1 yard with a team that was AVG 4.5 a carry and over 200 yards on the ground???  Or your ST player driving the 65 yards with No TO and a limited time on the clock?

[Wayne Arnold]

48 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

McDermott isn't inherently conservative. We had two 4th down attempts in yesterday's game. We failed to convert both. He probably just trusted the defense more than the offense and who could blame him?

 

I agree that McDermott is not inherently conservative.

 

A lot depends on the next month. If they can finish 9-7 and McDermott replaces Dennison with a young upgrade at OC then I can overlook the game management gaffes and hope he either improves or hires someone to do game and time management for him in 2018.

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't think that's how McDermott thought about it. For the fans we look ahead at every other team's schedule and we've already decided X team will have X wins. We've already decided a tie kicks us put of the playoff race. From McDermott's perspective he needs to get the best possible record and let the chips fall where they may. A tie is better than a loss. He took what seemed like a sure tie or a decent chance to win. Whereas a 4th down failed conversion would have significantly increased our chances of losing. It wasn't an easy decision and I don't think the probability would have been that different either way. He has gone for 4th and shorts before but maybe with Joe Webb as QB it isn't a good idea.

Yes.  The important point is that avoiding the loss was more important than getting the win.  

 

McDermott got the best of both worlds:  He told his defense he had confidence in them, and then his offense took advantage of the opportunity his defense presented.   AND he got the win.    All while he was protecting his downside by reducing the likelihood of losing, which would have been a killer. 

[MAJBobby]

2 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

Statistically proven in those conditions?

 

over 15 years of data has been crunched on this you can try to curtail it all you want because you love this coach.  but facts are the NUMERS do not lie

[HappyDays]

Just now, MAJBobby said:

 

So that makes it better that my HC doesn't look at the big picture.  Bills lost a 20% chance to win on the Punt according to Number Fire (an analytics site).  So what are the better odds, picking up 1 yard with a team that was AVG 4.5 a carry and over 200 yards on the ground???  Or your ST player driving the 65 yards with No TO and a limited time on the clock?

 

I am willing to bet that website does not account for snow.

[MAJBobby]

2 minutes ago, BillsfanAZ said:

You keep eluding to this math but havent shown anything. There are no percentages that factor in weather, field conditions, and what players are available.

You really make yourself look like an idiot everytime you say that, go throw yourself through another table

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

I am willing to bet that website does not account for snow.

Ummm yep they do it is real time based on what is on the field

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Yes.  The important point is that avoiding the loss was more important than getting the win.  

 

McDermott got the best of both worlds:  He told his defense he had confidence in them, and then his offense took advantage of the opportunity his defense presented.   AND he got the win.    All while he was protecting his downside by reducing the likelihood of losing, which would have been a killer. 

So shaw was Rex decision to punt right?  (avoiding the loss) what about Marrone (avoiding the loss)

[SWATeam]

2 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

over 15 years of data has been crunched on this you can try to curtail it all you want because you love this coach.  but facts are the NUMERS do not lie

The "data" can be thrown out the window in such outlier conditions.  

[MAJBobby]

Just now, SWATeam said:

The "data" can be thrown out the window in such outlier conditions.  

ahhh the clichés run well in Buffalo

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

over 15 years of data has been crunched on this you can try to curtail it all you want because you love this coach.  but facts are the NUMERS do not lie

 

3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

over 15 years of data has been crunched on this you can try to curtail it all you want because you love this coach.  but facts are the NUMERS do not lie

Go look up the phrase statistical outlier.

[MAJBobby]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

 

Go look up the phrase statistical outlier.

So you like playing for the statistical outlier (rare) or playing within the statistics?