Again the need for 300 yards Passing/game

[Tatonka68]

25 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Still complaining about a completion.  Did you too complain about the pass to Clay that maybe if the DB anticipated the throw quicker would have intercepted.

 

Yes the reason to cut Tyrod right then and there.

56 yards passing against the Saints says it all, Taylor sucks.

[JaCrispy]

2 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said:

56 yards passing against the Saints says it all, Taylor sucks.

Lol those are numbers I used to put up in high school...and I sucked. 

[Kirby Jackson]

12 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

That's going to take a lot.....and I mean a lot of digging to get that data.

Like I said earlier, there doesn't have to be a specific number, just the ability to move the ball in the air with more effectiveness.  A single number of 300 doesn't mean much to me.

When Trent Edwards was playing well at QB for us before the concussion, he never threw for 300 yards but we were moving the ball pretty well in the air.  We started out 4-0 and he started checking down everything after the concussion, our offense sucked going forward.

Yeah, I’m not sure that it is realistic to get it all and I wouldn’t even know what the data points were. That’s what the analytics department is for. I guess my point is we focus on pass yards with nothing to support that it matters. We do it because it’s the lowest common denominator. Let’s identify what correlates with wins and losses and figure out how to do more of it. 

21 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Well this year at least, 5/6 of our wins come when the other team scores 17 or less points. League median this year looks to be around 23...17 ppg is almost 30th. 

That’s interesting to me. 

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Forget trying to tell us that 300 yard games mean nothing when it comes to wins and losses as that is often wrong, especially when both QB's throw for 300 and teams trying to come back.

 

I am posting as to having a QB & Offense that at the start of the game you game plan to stop them throwing for 300 yards.

 

That is the problem with the Bills.  No defensive coordinator thinks the Bills want to throw for 200, much less then 300 and basically beg them to try (and they don't).

 

Name me a team in the league that can't throw for 300......  Browns (maybe), Jags (Bortles has), Baltimore, Denver & Chicago (Trubinsky)......  That's it......

 

I've been waiting for a game that the Bills try to establish the pass (first 6 weeks every NE opponent did).

 

And when they do & if Tyrod fails miserably, then you can say "I told you so".

 

Not counting this year, his first year and his injured year, Brady has thrown for over 4000 yards in 8 of the other 15 seasons.  He's averaged 300 or more yards per game in only 4 seasons

[billsredneck1]

not to disrupt the arguments but, i'd like to throw a few thoughts in here.

last year against miami tt went 26/39 329 3td 0 int. i may not be exact...if not very close. he can do it...and he can do it with kb., thompson, holmes, jones and tate.

you can take one thing to the bank. on each and EVERY play they will send someone from the right side and the middle. every single time.

 

we have to make them pay by getting the ball out quick and taking long shots. we can't depend on clay, oleary and matthews in the middle or slot for short gains.

we need that for sure to move the chains, but the way to beat this team and score points is to go deep and often.

 

on defense we need to stack the box and send the heat on every single snap. it seems like every coach we've had depends on the front 4 and are afraid to blitz brady.

i say screw that. we can play man with poyer and hyde to protect so we can send someone every time. i'm hoping milano up the middle can put brady on his back all day long.

 

they gotta hit him hard. we have the capability to beat these guys. this game is going to tell us every thing we need to know about the coaching staff and tyrod.

[YesPlayoffs]

Since he arrived, we are 2-7 in games where Tyrod started and threw for over 250. 0-1 in games he threw for over 300.

 

At the same time, we are 17-9 in games where he doesn't throw an interception.

 

Make of that what you will.

[LABILLBACKER]

TT will never be a great pocket qb but if you at least rolled him out or put him in shotgun more he'd give you more offense.  Maybe not 300 but 250.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

3 minutes ago, NoPlayoffs said:

Since he arrived, we are 2-7 in games where Tyrod started and threw for over 250. 0-1 in games he threw for over 300.

 

At the same time, we are 17-9 in games where he doesn't throw an interception.

 

Make of that what you will.

Neither his best and worst has won many games.   

[GoBills808]

10 minutes ago, NoPlayoffs said:

Since he arrived, we are 2-7 in games where Tyrod started and threw for over 250. 0-1 in games he threw for over 300.

 

At the same time, we are 17-9 in games where he doesn't throw an interception.

 

Make of that what you will.

I think you have to look at each QB and their respective situations individually if you want to get anything from these kinds of numbers. For a guy like Taylor, throwing for a bunch of yards is unusual, which may often mean the Bills are playing from behind (ie losing) because that's not what the offense is designed to do week in week out. That's going to skew things in a ball-control offense. Roethlisberger, Brady, Ryan and guys whose offenses feature a lot of attempts...they're going to have a different set of W/L stats when you look at it from a YPG standpoint because that's how their teams move the ball on offense and score.

 

But if the overarching question is how to qualify a 'good' QB, I think it's pretty safe to say that the best ones are featured heavily in their team's offensive usage, and the worse the QB is the less he will be tasked with, proportionally.

[Billsfan1972]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

I think you have to look at each QB and their respective situations individually if you want to get anything from these kinds of numbers. For a guy like Taylor, throwing for a bunch of yards is unusual, which may often mean the Bills are playing from behind (ie losing) because that's not what the offense is designed to do week in week out. That's going to skew things in a ball-control offense. Roethlisberger, Brady, Ryan and guys whose offenses feature a lot of attempts...they're going to have a different set of W/L stats when you look at it from a YPG standpoint because that's how their teams move the ball on offense and score.

 

But if the overarching question is how to qualify a 'good' QB, I think it's pretty safe to say that the best ones are featured heavily in their team's offensive usage, and the worse the QB is the less he will be tasked with, proportionally.

I don't disagree, but boy would it be nice and I'm convinced help the team if opposing teams respected the Bills throwing the ball and scoring points.  

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I don't disagree, but boy would it be nice and I'm convinced help the team if opposing teams respected the Bills throwing the ball and scoring points.  

I think there's no doubt about that, and I look to the Rams, Vikings, and Eagles success this season as proof that building a respectable passing attack facilitates a more effective offense in general.

[Mango]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

300 yard passing teams have a win percentage of .575 this year (42-31 assuming my math is right). Tyrod Taylor has a win percentage .600 this year. I don’t see the correlation? If anything it dispels that notion in that winning teams (like the Pats and Eagles) get great QB play.  Just saying... 

 

 

Depends on how you work with the numbers. 

 

From what I am reading/understanding, a teams win percentage for those who throw for over 300 yards in a game is.575. So they win more than they lose obviously. Or win about 57.5% of the time

 

TT is special, and he wins more than he loses when he throws less than 300 yards. He wins 60% of the time when throwing for less than 300 yards. Remember that he is winning games where teams throw for 300 yards. This is also factored into the league average. We can leave it at that, but statistically we have opened up a whole can of worms in terms of other data that needs to be provided, because something else needs to account for this in order for the numbers to tell the full story. Data needs to be able to speak for the whole story or it is closer to anecdotal than statistics. 

 

 

OR....

 

The Buffalo Bills are .500 when they throw less than 300 yards per game this season. That number is much closer to the mean of .425 league wide when throwing for less than 300. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

7 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

 

Depends on how you work with the numbers. 

 

From what I am reading/understanding, a teams win percentage for those who throw for over 300 yards in a game is.575. So they win more than they lose obviously. Or win about 57.5% of the time

 

TT is special, and he wins more than he loses when he throws less than 300 yards. He wins 60% of the time when throwing for less than 300 yards. Remember that he is winning games where teams throw for 300 yards. This is also factored into the league average. We can leave it at that, but statistically we have opened up a whole can of worms in terms of other data that needs to be provided, because something else needs to account for this in order for the numbers to tell the full story. Data needs to be able to speak for the whole story or it is closer to anecdotal than statistics. 

 

 

OR....

 

The Buffalo Bills are .500 when they throw less than 300 yards per game this season. That number is much closer to the mean of .425 league wide when throwing for less than 300. 

Aren't the Bills .545 when they throw less than 300 yards this season?

[Mango]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Aren't the Bills .545 when they throw less than 300 yards this season?

 

 

Ugh...my fault. I removed the TT game like Kirby did accidently. Correct. 

[The Now Moment]

I don't think they are looking for a pass first offense but more of a balanced offense.  They want the run game to be able to slow the game down at times.  We absolutely need a guy that can sling it though.  I'm tired of QBs that don't win you the game.  If the defense doesn't play well...we don't win.  Get a guy and fill in the holes around him this offseason and finally give a QB the best chance we can to succeed for once.  Surround that guy with everything you can.  We have the luxury of lots of cap space and draft picks this offseason to attempt to fill several holes on this team.

[CEN-CAL17]

2 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Need to be able to Pass and Run with some degree of success, and we've struggled with each this year.

Here's a list of QBs averaging less than 220 passing yards per game this year:
Eli Manning

Cam Newton

Andy Dalton

Dak Prescott

Blake Bortles

Tyrod Taylor

Brett Hundley

Tom Savage

Ryan Fitzpatrick

DeShone Kizer

Jay Cutler

Joe Flacco

Mitch Trubisky

----

Matt Moore

Mike Glennon

Brian Hoyer

Drew Stanton

Show me a list of the top 10 and I’ll show you Super Bowl contenders....

 

oh oh not to mention teams that consistently make the playoffs....

[BuffaloHokie13]

29 minutes ago, 1ZAYDAY1 said:

Show me a list of the top 10 and I’ll show you Super Bowl contenders....

 

oh oh not to mention teams that consistently make the playoffs....

In 2016 5 of the top 10 passing yard teams made the playoffs. In 2015 3 of the top 10 passing yard teams made the playoffs. Passing yards are not the stat you're looking for.

 

How about this stat:

From 2015-2016 a total of 12 teams held opponents under 24 points 19 times or more. All 12 made the playoffs 1 of the 2 years and those 12 teams accounted for 18 of the 24 playoff teams in the 2 year span.

Edited November 28, 2017 by BuffaloHokie13

[Jobot]

Fantasy Football is not real football

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

In 2016 5 of the top 10 passing yard teams made the playoffs. In 2015 3 of the top 10 passing yard teams made the playoffs. Passing yards are not the stat you're looking for.

 

How about this stat:

From 2015-2016 a total of 12 teams held opponents under 24 points 19 times or more. All 12 made the playoffs 1 of the 2 years and those 12 teams accounted for 18 of the 24 playoff teams in the 2 year span.

Conversely, in 2016 only 3 of the bottom 10 passing yard teams made the playoffs, and several of them were among the worst teams in the league. It's certainly not the best predictor of success but I think year-to-year you'd much rather be in the top than the bottom.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

Conversely, in 2016 only 3 of the bottom 10 passing yard teams made the playoffs, and several of them were among the worst teams in the league. It's certainly not the best predictor of success but I think year-to-year you'd much rather be in the top than the bottom.

So in 2016 as many teams in the bottom 10 made it as 2015's top 10? The stat simply isn't correlated with playoffs. There are much better stats to track than that. Also, 1 stat rarely ever tells the story by itself.

[GoBills808]

Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said:

So in 2016 as many teams in the bottom 10 made it as 2015's top 10? The stat simply isn't correlated with playoffs. There are much better stats to track than that. Also, 1 stat rarely ever tells the story by itself.

Of course. But I think it stands up to scrutiny that, all else being equal, you'd rather be at the top of that list than the bottom if for no other reason than it's evidence you've got a capable quarterback. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

Of course. But I think it stands up to scrutiny that, all else being equal, you'd rather be at the top of that list than the bottom if for no other reason than it's evidence you've got a capable quarterback. 

It might be better evidence that you have a bad defense than a capable quarterback.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

It might be better evidence that you have a bad defense than a capable quarterback.

Not a lot of bad QBs at the top of passing yard lists though.

[mead107]

300 yds not guaranteed =win.  

[xRUSHx]

3 hours ago, billsredneck1 said:

not to disrupt the arguments but, i'd like to throw a few thoughts in here.

last year against miami tt went 26/39 329 3td 0 int. i may not be exact...if not very close. he can do it...and he can do it with kb., thompson, holmes, jones and tate.

you can take one thing to the bank. on each and EVERY play they will send someone from the right side and the middle. every single time.

 

we have to make them pay by getting the ball out quick and taking long shots. we can't depend on clay, oleary and matthews in the middle or slot for short gains.

we need that for sure to move the chains, but the way to beat this team and score points is to go deep and often.

 

on defense we need to stack the box and send the heat on every single snap. it seems like every coach we've had depends on the front 4 and are afraid to blitz brady.

i say screw that. we can play man with poyer and hyde to protect so we can send someone every time. i'm hoping milano up the middle can put brady on his back all day long.

 

they gotta hit him hard. we have the capability to beat these guys. this game is going to tell us every thing we need to know about the coaching staff and tyrod.

.

Sure TT can do it, sadly it took 5 quarters to get it once.

 

I do not think this game will tell us anything we dont already know, the team needs a lot players and it all starts with someone better at QB.

Edited November 28, 2017 by xRUSHx

[section122]

3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I hear what everyone is saying but I need the data to support it. There are a lot of intuitive points being made. As an example, if both teams throw for 300 yards there is a winner and a loser. That’s true just like if both QBs throw for less than 300 yards there is a winner and a loser. I don’t disagree that a better passing offense would benefit the Bills but I’d like to see the data that supports it. As of right now, I’m not seeing the correlation.

 

I won't get fully into it because I don't have the time but here is a cursory glance:

Of the top 5 passing teams 3 have a winning record

Of the top 10 passing teams 7 have a winning record

Of the top 16 passing teams (top half of the league) 9 have a winning record

 

So I guess it matters where you draw your demarcation line.

 

Here is a fun discussion point though:

Of the top 5 rushing teams 4 have a winning record

Of the top 10 rushing teams 7 have a winning record

Of the top 16 rushing teams 10 have a winning record

 

It seems to me that a team needs to be productive whether it is rushing or passing.  Only the Rams, Saints, and Falcons are top 10 in both.  Surprisingly 14 teams average less than 208 yards passing.  On the flip side 12 teams average 250+ passing yards and 0 teams average 300 yards passing.  New England is the only team that averages over 267 yards passing in a game.

 

i did some looking a year or 2 back and passing was difficult to correlate with winning due to a lot of teams passing in catch up mode or the dreaded garbage time.  Rushing teams were much more likely to have winning records partly due to having a lead and running out the clock.  

 

I would say pass first teams in the NFL aren't the norm like they once were and the numbers have started to bear that out.  Most successful teams have a strong run game with their pass game (Bills have neither right now).

Saints - now have a running game and are winning again

Falcons - rely on 2 headed monster of Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman as much as Matt Ryan

Chargers - rely on Melvin Gordon as much as Rivers

Rams - as good as Goff has been Gurley has been as well

Steelers - Le'veon in addition to AB and Ben

 

At a quick glance I would say Patriots and Packers have offenses built around passing.  I wonder why that is...

 

[transplantbillsfan]

Actually, the Bills pretty consistently do establish the pass early in games, it's just they don't stick with it once they get a lead because they want to run out the clock.

 

This is why I want to bang my head against a wall with some people who adamantly argue that Taylor isn't a serious contributor to these wins.

 

It's like people don't bother watching games and just look at the box score in the end.

 

1st half

15/24 for 121 yards and 1 TD

 

We went into the half up by 10 points: 13-3

 

2nd half

4/5 for 62 yards

 

 

There's an ebb and flow to the conservative way McDermott and Dennison call their plays.  In a 1 score game, Taylor passes more.  In a 2 score game, we pass a lot less.

 

The Bills went up by 2 scores (10 points) just under 3 minutes into the 2nd quarter.  Up to that point, Taylor threw 16 passes in 27 plays.

 

Then the Bills went up by 2 scores and on their next drive and he only threw 3 passes on 12 plays.

 

Then the Chiefs kicked a FG and came within 1 score and the Bills got the ball back with less than 2 minutes and Taylor threw 6 passes in 7 plays to lead the team to a FG to go up by 10 points.

 

 

Then 5 passes in the 2nd half.

 

Only 71 of Taylor's 308 passes this year have come when the Bills have been leading, but only 12 of those passes have come when this team has been up by 2 or more scores (9 points or more). 

 

We've run 76 offensive plays up by 9 points or more. He's thrown the ball just 15.8% of the plays we've been up by that much.
 

We've run 688 total offensive plays... 612 have been with us trailing or tied or up by only one score. 296 of those plays have been passes.

 

When "it's a game," there's clearly a plan to throw the ball as Taylor throws the ball 48.4% of the time.

 

When the Bills have a solid lead, he only throws it 15.8% of the time.

 

 

 

 

 

[TheFunPolice]

I guess it comes down to philosophical conversation.

 

Do you want to build an elite roster and have a game manager at QB? that's the KC model. Win 13 games and lose in the playoffs because if you get behind it's over. That works for a few years before you get picked apart in free agency and your window closes, leaving you with nothing to show for it. Along you way you realize that when the games really matter you are not going to win.

 

Or do you want to be like the Eagles and Rams, young teams with high flying offenses scoring TDs, making highlight reel plays and winning tons of games.

 

Having a good young QB is sustainable. Having an entire roster of elite players is not. That's just my two cents.

 

Yes but the Broncos! They won their last SB in SPITE of Manning, not because of him. Then why did they stop winning as soon as he retired? There is a lot more to being QB than just stats, as many have said in this thread. Checking to the right plays, even if it's to a run, is part of it. They also went to another one in a record setting season for any QB ever. And lost. To another team with a great young QB.

 

Meanwhile the KC's of the world lose playoff games by stupid KC scores like 15-9.

 

Watch what happens this weekend. Play it safe and don't turn it over is about to get steamrolled by a real NFL offense.

 

 

Edited November 29, 2017 by TheFunPolice

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 hours ago, mead107 said:

300 yds not guaranteed =win.  

But it sure is funner

[TheFunPolice]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

Then why'd they trade Watkins right before the season started? Right after the preseason game where he and Tyrod were playing pitch and catch?

 

Did teams not respect our passing game last year? When our rushing offense was amongst the best in the league? Why not just stack the box and make Tyrod "play QB"? 

 

 

 

That entire phrase originated with the Ravens last season. It's what good defenses did to the Bills.

 

The Bills got fat on some pathetic teams and didn't beat anybody good.

 

However, the running game was great. There is an art to it, which Dennision has not discovered apparently.

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

15 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Then why'd they trade Watkins right before the season started? Right after the preseason game where he and Tyrod were playing pitch and catch?

 

Did teams not respect our passing game last year? When our rushing offense was amongst the best in the league? Why not just stack the box and make Tyrod "play QB"? 

 

 

 

Because it was preseason and pitch and catch shouldn’t be difficult.  Why take anything from that?  

 

Beane stated resignability was a big reason.  Get something for him rather than lose him for nothing.  No, I didn’t want to pay him top 5 money for a guy who hasn’t produced like one now with two teams.

 

Doesnt seem like Watkins was a good locker room guy either. 

 

Teams havent respected our passing game in 3 seasons.

Edited November 29, 2017 by Royale with Cheese

[TheFunPolice]

well, to be fair, if Watkins just had a better coach, a better OC, and a better QB...

 

[oldmanfan]

11 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

First game of 2016.... the offense responded after Roman got fired. They didn't beat anyone good, I agree. I blame that on Rex and his fat brother A LOT more then I do Tyrod.

 

The running game was great due to a combination of great scheme, the QB option, and Tyrods deep ball. It kept defenses honest so stacking the box wasn't an option or it was something teams typically paid for. 

Please. Watkins would've had a big year here given the options Tyrod has had to work with this season and him and Watkins had chemistry. 

 

And this his has been discussed numerous times. Watkins ain't going anywhere for at least two seasons if they just picked up the team option. Signability my ass.

And it's been pointed out numerous times they were not about to tie up a ton of cap space for two years ona WR with injury history and perhaps attitudinal stuff.  And I still wish they had kept him.  But your word on this is not gold.

 

Too bad though.  Makes a great decoy.

[Royale with Cheese]

9 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

First game of 2016.... the offense responded after Roman got fired. They didn't beat anyone good, I agree. I blame that on Rex and his fat brother A LOT more then I do Tyrod.

 

The running game was great due to a combination of great scheme, the QB option, and Tyrods deep ball. It kept defenses honest so stacking the box wasn't an option or it was something teams typically paid for. 

Please. Watkins would've had a big year here given the options Tyrod has had to work with this season and him and Watkins had chemistry. 

 

And this his has been discussed numerous times. Watkins ain't going anywhere for at least two seasons if they just picked up the team option. Signability my ass.

 

And it also has been discussed that he didn’t have the production to pay him $13.2 million this year and around $15 million the following.  Again this year, with Sean McVay who is an awesome offensive mind....Sammy has 28 catches for the season.  Watkins would have for sure had a big year?  Yeah, history and this season is proving it LOL.

 

Damn Scott....what’s it like to live with PMS every day?  

 

[xRUSHx]

3 hours ago, mead107 said:

300 yds not guaranteed =win.  

IMO A 300 game is something a real good QB can do without having to play 5 quarters to get it. It is not so much as to average a 300 game every week as it is to at least land one of them during a season. 

 

I agree there is no guarantee of a win with a 300 but hey with a 300 game you sure gave it shot. Your team gets 300 and so does the other that's a great QB shootout.

Edited November 29, 2017 by xRUSHx

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, xRUSHx said:

IMO A 300 game is something a real good QB can do without having to play a extra quarter to get it. It is not so much as to average a 300 game every week as it is to at least land one of them during a season. 

 

I agree no guarantee a win with a 300 but hey with a 300 game you sure gave it shot. Your team gets 300 and so does the other that's a great QB shootout.

Is there a reason that Tyrod’s winning percentage is higher this year than 300 yard passers? Asking for a friend

[xRUSHx]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Is there a reason that Tyrod’s winning percentage is higher this year than 300 yard passers? Asking for a friend

Defense 

[oldmanfan]

5 minutes ago, xRUSHx said:

IMO A 300 game is something a real good QB can do without having to play 5 quarters to get it. It is not so much as to average a 300 game every week as it is to at least land one of them during a season. 

 

I agree there is no guarantee of a win with a 300 but hey with a 300 game you sure gave it shot. Your team gets 300 and so does the other that's a great QB shootout.

Shootouts are fun to watch, but I'd rather have the kind of balance in a team that precludes having to get into one in the first place.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, xRUSHx said:

Defense 

So the 19th ranked DVOA defense is the reason? Got it 

[xRUSHx]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

Shootouts are fun to watch, but I'd rather have the kind of balance in a team that precludes having to get into one in the first place.

I would love to have balanced attack as well but first you need a QB that can throw, let's say maybe one that can get more then 54 yards in 4 quarters