Tyrod is tier 2 of NFL QBs: Ability, but not Inevitablity

[transplantbillsfan]

All QBs need some circumstances, but for a small minute handful of QBs there was an inevitability that they'd be Franchise QBs purely based on their physical ability/ mental ability/ intangibles.

 

Tier 1 QBs are the Elite guys (Brady, Brees, and Rodgers are the only 3 absolutes up there with Big Ben probably creeping in, too) who can largely "carry a team," even though with Football being the ultimate team sport, these guys still needed a couple things to fall into place.  Brady would never have been Brady without the Hoodie... same for Brees & Payton.  I actually think Rodgers might be a slight step above those guys because I just think Rodgers and McCarthy have never jibed as well as the rest, but Rodgers had the circumstance of learning from one of the best in the game on the bench for 4 years and not feeling any pressure.  These guys are the generational, rare 1st ballot HOFers that Buffalo was so lucky to have once in Jim Kelly.  But they're rare.  Incredibly rare.  Previous to the 3 (maybe 4...?) guys above we've had maybe 2 other QBs we've seen in that category playing in the NFL since 2000 in Peyton Manning and Brett Favre. 

 

Tier 3 QBs are the guys who are often labelled as "journeymen," "fringe starters," or even "bridge QBs."  These are the guys defined by Ryan Fitzpatrick, Josh McCown and Brian Hoyer over the span of their careers.  These are guys you want as your backup, but will suffer through them as your starter because they might pleasantly surprise you on occasion.

 

Tier 2 QBs are the vast majority of guys in the NFL and these are the guys who have the ability/capability to be/of being a Franchise QB, but unlike the tier 1 guys, it's not inevitable, or close to it the way those guys are.

 

This is where Tyrod Taylor sits.

 

There are plenty of guys in this category, some of them are probably the higher end of tier 2 like Ryan, Goff, and Wentz.  Some of them might be more in the middle like Cousins, Prescott, and Rivers. And others are on the lower end like Dalton, Flacco and Tannehill.  But they're all there in tier 2. 

 

The last 2 years for both Matt Ryan and Jared Goff exemplify this tier.  They require the right circumstances and, unlike the tier 1 guys, they need a combination of several of these circumstances to be what one might consider a "Franchise QB."  These circumstances typically are a combination of weapons in the passing game, a running game, offensive system, offensive play caller, and/or defense. 

 

Matt Ryan has always had the weapons over the span of his career (as a rookie he had an explosive running game with Michael Turner and a solid WR corps with one of the league's best WRs at the time in Roddy White and throughout his career he's had Tony Gonzales and Julio Jones and Davonte Freeman and so on) and he's also always had pretty good Offensive Coordinators/playcallers (Mike Mularkey, Dirk Koetter, Kyle Shanahan). Last year Matt Ryan had an MVP season and I remember all the "HE'S ELITE!!!" conversation.  Not to pat myself on the back too much, but I predicted that Ryan would take a pretty significant step back this season because I believed Shanahan was largely responsible for Ryan's season.  And look what's happened?  Ryan still looks like a starter but has come dropping out of any of the "Elite" dialogue anyone was having... it's pretty funny because I bet all those talking heads who were saying that (and there were A LOT!!!) just feel like idiots now.  It's not that Ryan is a bad QB.  He's not, he's good.  He's just not great the way those tier 1 guys are.  He still has good weapons there, so he's still gonna be good enough.

 

Jared Goff is like the exact opposite example of this.  Yeah, I know he was just a rookie last year, but he absolutely SUCKED last year.  Like he just looked really bad and the Rams looked foolish.  And keep in mind that this was with one of the better defenses in the league and also with one of the more talented RBs in the league (whose production also, ironically was terrible... consistent with this whole "OC help needed" theme, hmmm? 0:)) Then what happens?  The team hires a brilliant young offensive mind as a head coach and goes out and acquires talent at the WR position, much to Buffalo's chagrin.  And voila!!!  Do you guys honestly think Goff just magically became a different guy or is he seriously the beneficiary of a brilliant young offensive play caller and newly acquired (or differently utilized) Elite talent?  Yeah, I think it's the latter.

 

Taylor's in this tier, too.  These guys aren't good enough to overcome circumstances, and so far in his career, there have been more circumstances working against Taylor than a lot of the other guys in this tier, which might be the reason we move on from him after this year or, more likely, after next year.  But if some circumstances can start shaping up more in Taylor's favor, he's a guy who CAN be our Franchise QB.

 

 

 

 

 

[Gray Beard]

I like this breakdown.

Now where do you put Eli? I've never thought of him as elite, but he has won the Superbowl.  An interesting contradiction.

[Buffalo716]

14 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

All QBs need some circumstances, but for a small minute handful of QBs there was an inevitability that they'd be Franchise QBs purely based on their physical ability/ mental ability/ intangibles.

 

Tier 1 QBs are the Elite guys (Brady, Brees, and Rodgers are the only 3 absolutes up there with Big Ben probably creeping in, too) who can largely "carry a team," even though with Football being the ultimate team sport, these guys still needed a couple things to fall into place.  Brady would never have been Brady without the Hoodie... same for Brees & Payton.  I actually think Rodgers might be a slight step above those guys because I just think Rodgers and McCarthy have never jibed as well as the rest, but Rodgers had the circumstance of learning from one of the best in the game on the bench for 4 years and not feeling any pressure.  These guys are the generational, rare 1st ballot HOFers that Buffalo was so lucky to have once in Jim Kelly.  But they're rare.  Incredibly rare.  Previous to the 3 (maybe 4...?) guys above we've had maybe 2 other QBs we've seen in that category playing in the NFL since 2000 in Peyton Manning and Brett Favre. 

 

Tier 3 QBs are the guys who are often labelled as "journeymen," "fringe starters," or even "bridge QBs."  These are the guys defined by Ryan Fitzpatrick, Josh McCown and Brian Hoyer over the span of their careers.  These are guys you want as your backup, but will suffer through them as your starter because they might pleasantly surprise you on occasion.

 

Tier 2 QBs are the vast majority of guys in the NFL and these are the guys who have the ability/capability to be/of being a Franchise QB, but unlike the tier 1 guys, it's not inevitable, or close to it the way those guys are.

 

This is where Tyrod Taylor sits.

 

There are plenty of guys in this category, some of them are probably the higher end of tier 2 like Ryan, Goff, and Wentz.  Some of them might be more in the middle like Cousins, Prescott, and Rivers. And others are on the lower end like Dalton, Flacco and Tannehill.  But they're all there in tier 2. 

 

The last 2 years for both Matt Ryan and Jared Goff exemplify this tier.  They require the right circumstances and, unlike the tier 1 guys, they need a combination of several of these circumstances to be what one might consider a "Franchise QB."  These circumstances typically are a combination of weapons in the passing game, a running game, offensive system, offensive play caller, and/or defense. 

 

Matt Ryan has always had the weapons over the span of his career (as a rookie he had an explosive running game with Michael Turner and a solid WR corps with one of the league's best WRs at the time in Roddy White and throughout his career he's had Tony Gonzales and Julio Jones and Davonte Freeman and so on) and he's also always had pretty good Offensive Coordinators/playcallers (Mike Mularkey, Dirk Koetter, Kyle Shanahan). Last year Matt Ryan had an MVP season and I remember all the "HE'S ELITE!!!" conversation.  Not to pat myself on the back too much, but I predicted that Ryan would take a pretty significant step back this season because I believed Shanahan was largely responsible for Ryan's season.  And look what's happened?  Ryan still looks like a starter but has come dropping out of any of the "Elite" dialogue anyone was having... it's pretty funny because I bet all those talking heads who were saying that (and there were A LOT!!!) just feel like idiots now.  It's not that Ryan is a bad QB.  He's not, he's good.  He's just not great the way those tier 1 guys are.  He still has good weapons there, so he's still gonna be good enough.

 

Jared Goff is like the exact opposite example of this.  Yeah, I know he was just a rookie last year, but he absolutely SUCKED last year.  Like he just looked really bad and the Rams looked foolish.  And keep in mind that this was with one of the better defenses in the league and also with one of the more talented RBs in the league (whose production also, ironically was terrible... consistent with this whole "OC help needed" theme, hmmm? 0:)) Then what happens?  The team hires a brilliant young offensive mind as a head coach and goes out and acquires talent at the WR position, much to Buffalo's chagrin.  And voila!!!  Do you guys honestly think Goff just magically became a different guy or is he seriously the beneficiary of a brilliant young offensive play caller and newly acquired (or differently utilized) Elite talent?  Yeah, I think it's the latter.

 

Taylor's in this tier, too.  These guys aren't good enough to overcome circumstances, and so far in his career, there have been more circumstances working against Taylor than a lot of the other guys in this tier, which might be the reason we move on from him after this year or, more likely, after next year.  But if some circumstances can start shaping up more in Taylor's favor, he's a guy who CAN be our Franchise QB.

 

 

 

14 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

 

Always enjoy your posts man

 

 But Matty Ice is definitely a Franchise QB

 

He has had 4000 yards every year since 2011 with a great TD to INT ratio

 

sure he has weapons but no slouches win NFL MVP

 

TT is definitely taking some good steps recently 

[transplantbillsfan]

1 minute ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

Always enjoy your posts man

 

 But Matty Ice is definitely a Franchise QB

 

He has had 4000 yards every year since 2011 with a great TD to INT ratio

 

sure he has weapons but no slouches win NFL MVP

 

TT is definitely taking some good steps recently 

 

Nononono...

 

You misunderstand what I meant.

 

Matty Ice is a Franchise QB now, but it's thanks to all those circumstances I mentioned.  Him being a franchise QB wasn't inevitable in the same way those Tier 1 guys were.

[NoSaint]

My man.... another Tyrod thread from you? 

[transplantbillsfan]

11 minutes ago, just a guy said:

I like this breakdown.

Now where do you put Eli? I've never thought of him as elite, but he has won the Superbowl.  An interesting contradiction.

 

Eli's tier 2.

 

Plenty of tier 2 guys have been to and won Super Bowls.  Cam Newton, Joe Flacco, Eli, Russell Wilson are all tier 2 guys, but guys who also prove you can win with those guys in the right circumstances.

 

I think the blurred line between tier 1 and 2 are Big Ben and Kurt Warner.  Both of those guys have played at such high levels, but have also been the beneficiaries of some unbelievable talent with Big Ben having Leveon Bell and Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown over the years and Kurt Warner having Marshall Falk and Torrey Holt and Isaac Bruce with Mike Martz calling the plays and then Fitz in Atlanta. 

 

6 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

My man.... another Tyrod thread from you? 

 

Another?

 

Been here since the beginning of March. I've started 14 threads since I've been here, 10 about Taylor.  I'm barely averaging 1 thread a month.  Plenty of posters on here are much, much worse.

 

No need to enter them if you don't want to discuss, ya know

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Eli's tier 2.

 

Plenty of tier 2 guys have been to and won Super Bowls.  Cam Newton, Joe Flacco, Eli, Russell Wilson are all tier 2 guys, but guys who also prove you can win with those guys in the right circumstances.

 

I think the blurred line between tier 1 and 2 are Big Ben and Kurt Warner.  Both of those guys have played at such high levels, but have also been the beneficiaries of some unbelievable talent with Big Ben having Leveon Bell and Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown over the years and Kurt Warner having Marshall Falk and Torrey Holt and Isaac Bruce with Mike Martz calling the plays and then Fitz in Atlanta. 

 

 

Another?

 

Been here since the beginning of March. I've started 14 threads since I've been here, 10 about Taylor.  I'm barely averaging 1 thread a month.  Plenty of posters on here are much, much worse.

 

No need to enter them if you don't want to discuss, ya know

 

Eli is like tier 4 right about now...that dude is washed up

[JaCrispy]

Great post transplant...

 

I would Iike to interject, if I may, that based on your description perhaps Tyrod may be more borderline tier2/tier3?...

 

I say this because on the lower end of tier2 you have Dalton, Flacco, and tannehil...all these guys have received franchise QB contracts where Tyrod has not...

 

Also, Tyrod may not be a journeyman QB (yet) like the guys represented in tier3, but he is considered by many as a bridge QB who surprises from time to time...

 

Just my two cents, but great job.

[Buffalo716]

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Eli's tier 2.

 

Plenty of tier 2 guys have been to and won Super Bowls.  Cam Newton, Joe Flacco, Eli, Russell Wilson are all tier 2 guys, but guys who also prove you can win with those guys in the right circumstances.

 

I think the blurred line between tier 1 and 2 are Big Ben and Kurt Warner.  Both of those guys have played at such high levels, but have also been the beneficiaries of some unbelievable talent with Big Ben having Leveon Bell and Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown over the years and Kurt Warner having Marshall Falk and Torrey Holt and Isaac Bruce with Mike Martz calling the plays and then Fitz in Atlanta. 

 

 

Another?

 

Been here since the beginning of March. I've started 14 threads since I've been here, 10 about Taylor.  I'm barely averaging 1 thread a month.  Plenty of posters on here are much, much worse.

 

No need to enter them if you don't want to discuss, ya know

 

Well im guilty of starting threads

 

maybe not about TT but I do like to start a nice conversation  

[Bills Analyst]

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Nononono...

 

You misunderstand what I meant.

 

Matty Ice is a Franchise QB now, but it's thanks to all those circumstances I mentioned.  Him being a franchise QB wasn't inevitable in the same way those Tier 1 guys were.

I'm not so sure Brady was inevitable either.  Brady only got his shot at starting due to an injury to Bledsoe.  At the time bellickick had a career 41-57 record and wasn't the perceived genius he is today.  So if Bledsoe wouldn't have got hurt, he likely would have finished the season as the starter.  Would billy boy have had the support to start a third year 6th rounder over a 3x probowler who was a #1 overall draft pick.  

 

And if he didn't start him, then where would Brady have gone after his rookie contract was over?  Buffalo?  Would he have been the same guy here?  I'm not so sure.

[transplantbillsfan]

11 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Great post transplant...

 

I would Iike to interject, if I may, that based on your description perhaps Tyrod may be more borderline tier2/tier3?...

 

I say this because on the lower end of tier2 you have Dalton, Flacco, and tannehil...all these guys have received franchise QB contracts where Tyrod has not...

 

Also, Tyrod may not be a journeyman QB (yet) like the guys represented in tier3, but he is considered by many as a bridge QB who surprises from time to time...

 

Just my two cents, but great job.

 

I don't think it's about contract, it's about ability.

 

Tier 2 needs more stars to align than tier 1. There are a lot  of QBs throughout history who are tier 2 guys, but the stars didn't align and they fell off the face of the earth. David Carr is the first example that pops in my head. He wasn't a bad QB. he was just in an absolutely atrocious situation.

 

 I'd say the same thing for RG3.

 

 

 The tier 2 guys need help in different ways. David Carr needed an OL. RG3 was a bit of a head case, so I think his issues had more to do with guidance in terms of leadership.

 

 

 It's almost revisionist history, don't you think? Remember all the conversation in the 2012 draft? RG3 was viewed by many as one of the best prospects to come out in years, and if it weren't for luck coming out in the same year, he was the clear-cut number one draft choice.

 

 Some QBs were just destined for tier 3 or below. I think EJ was always one of those guys, sadly. He just never had it upstairs. And I'm not talking about intelligence, I'm talking about IT.

 

 

 Tier 2 guys are never solidly in tear one or solidly in tear three. There will be years where we'll talk about them as elite guys like we did with Ryan last year or  Tannehill and his second or third year (I can't remember which) or Kaepernick as he began his career or the other way around like Goff last year.

 

 Once you know you have a tier 2 guy, I think you need to make a very abrupt choice: keep shooting for a tier one guy and probably miss or build your team and system to suit the tier 2 guy's strengths.

 

 You can keep looking for a tear one guy. But once you start adopting your system and bringing in players for the tier 2 guy, you're probably going to be bringing in some W-2s,  which would mean you'd have to somehow luck out in getting your tier one guy. But then again, all the teams that have tier one guys lucked out, one way or another.

3 minutes ago, bmacdona said:

I'm not so sure Brady was inevitable either.  Brady only got his shot at starting due to an injury to Bledsoe.  At the time bellickick had a career 41-57 record and wasn't the perceived genius he is today.  So if Bledsoe wouldn't have got hurt, he likely would have finished the season as the starter.  Would billy boy have had the support to start a third year 6th rounder over a 3x probowler who was a #1 overall draft pick.  

 

And if he didn't start him, then where would Brady have gone after his rookie contract was over?  Buffalo?  Would he have been the same guy here?  I'm not so sure.

 

It was inevitable once he saw the field. I agree seeing the field wasn't inevitable, though.

[Fadingpain]

Don't like the breakdown. 

 

You need another tier between the Tier 1 "ultra elites" and the Tier 2 "most guys in the league".

 

There is another tier there of very good QBs who are categorically better than someone like Tyrod, but who are not the ultra elite Tier 1 guys either. 

 

Your way puts Tyrod in with Eli Manning and Flacco.  No way is Tyrod in the same tier, even if Flacco has looked pretty darned bad this year.  

 

Remember, Tyrod is the guy who would have sat on the bench for 500 years in Baltimore, because he is not Joe Flacco.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

All QBs need some circumstances, but for a small minute handful of QBs there was an inevitability that they'd be Franchise QBs purely based on their physical ability/ mental ability/ intangibles.

 

Tier 1 QBs are the Elite guys (Brady, Brees, and Rodgers are the only 3 absolutes up there with Big Ben probably creeping in, too) who can largely "carry a team," even though with Football being the ultimate team sport, these guys still needed a couple things to fall into place.  Brady would never have been Brady without the Hoodie... same for Brees & Payton.  I actually think Rodgers might be a slight step above those guys because I just think Rodgers and McCarthy have never jibed as well as the rest, but Rodgers had the circumstance of learning from one of the best in the game on the bench for 4 years and not feeling any pressure.  These guys are the generational, rare 1st ballot HOFers that Buffalo was so lucky to have once in Jim Kelly.  But they're rare.  Incredibly rare.  Previous to the 3 (maybe 4...?) guys above we've had maybe 2 other QBs we've seen in that category playing in the NFL since 2000 in Peyton Manning and Brett Favre. 

 

Tier 3 QBs are the guys who are often labelled as "journeymen," "fringe starters," or even "bridge QBs."  These are the guys defined by Ryan Fitzpatrick, Josh McCown and Brian Hoyer over the span of their careers.  These are guys you want as your backup, but will suffer through them as your starter because they might pleasantly surprise you on occasion.

 

Tier 2 QBs are the vast majority of guys in the NFL and these are the guys who have the ability/capability to be/of being a Franchise QB, but unlike the tier 1 guys, it's not inevitable, or close to it the way those guys are.

 

This is where Tyrod Taylor sits.

 

 

 

This is a poor and useless way to split QBs, or players in general.

 

Trying to pretend that the vast majority of QBs have the ability/capability to be a franchise QB is like attaching a giant flashing light to your forehead saying "Doesn't get it."

 

All you have to do is go look at the QBs on nfl.com who've put up stats this year. There are like 60 of them. It's not even a majority of them that have the possibility of being franchise guys, much less a "vast majority."

 

The vast majority of those guys are the ones labelled journeymen, fringe starters or bridge QBs. 

 

A three-tier ranking system is about a half-step up from useless. But if you need to use a three-tier system, the third tier of journeymen, bridge QBs and fringe starters, backups and on their way out -  is where most QBs would be. And that includes Tyrod. Elite is about five or six guys. There are maybe 12 -18 franchise guys including the elites, so tier two would be non-elite franchise guys, the ones who can feel comfortable that teams aren't actively trying to replace them. And everyone else is below that.

 

Any useful system would have more tiers for guys who are extremely young and unknowns or guys with a decent chance of sliding up one day into the franchise tier and maybe career backups.

 

 

 

Here's the guys listed at NFL.com as having stats this year:

 

Tom Brady

Alex Smith

Russell Wilson

Carson Wentz

Drew Brees

Matt Ryan 

Kirk Cousins 

Ben Roethlisberger

Jared Goff

Philip Rivers

Josh McCown

Cam Newton

Carson Palmer

Derek Carr

Jacoby Brissett

Jameis Winston

Matthew Stafford

Eli Manning

Dak Prescott

Andy Dalton

Deshaun Watson

Trevor Siemian

Blake Bortles

Tyrod Taylor

Case Keenum

Joe Flacco

Marcus Mariota

Aaron Rodgers

Jay Cutler

DeShone Kizer

CJ Beathard

Mike Glennon

Kevin Hogan

Mitchell Trubisky

Sam Bradford

Matt More

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Tom Savage

Drew Stanton

EJ Manuel

Brett Hundley

Brock Osweiler

Matt Cassel

Scott Tolzien

Cody Kessler

Ryan Mallett

Robert Golden

Nick Foles

Derek Anderson

Sean Mannion

Cooper Rush

Chad Henne

Geno Smith

 

... and there are a bunch more who don't have stats yet this year.

 

And you think the "vast majority" are Tier 2? That's utterly senseless. Any system that puts Matt Ryan and guys like Fitz and Nick Foles and Keenum and McCown in the same tier has no real utility or usefulness.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 7, 2017 by Thurman#1

[Iron Maiden]

To put TT in the same tier as Matt Ryan or Russ Wilson is ridiculous.....they are much better QBs....I agree that there's a tier missing...and TT would be in the 3rd tier....

Edited November 7, 2017 by Iron Maiden

[reddogblitz]

5 hours ago, Graybeard said:

I like this breakdown.

Now where do you put Eli? I've never thought of him as elite, but he has won the Superbowl.  An interesting contradiction.

 

If a guy wins the Super Bowl, he is elite. That's my system which is obviously different than the OP's.

 

But Eli should be in anyway by the way he won them. Massive 4th quarter comebacks against the eventual 18-1 cheaters.  That's elite.

 

And yes, Trent Dilfer counts too.

[transplantbillsfan]

42 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

Don't like the breakdown. 

 

You need another tier between the Tier 1 "ultra elites" and the Tier 2 "most guys in the league".

 

There is another tier there of very good QBs who are categorically better than someone like Tyrod, but who are not the ultra elite Tier 1 guys either. 

 

Your way puts Tyrod in with Eli Manning and Flacco.  No way is Tyrod in the same tier, even if Flacco has looked pretty darned bad this year.  

 

Remember, Tyrod is the guy who would have sat on the bench for 500 years in Baltimore, because he is not Joe Flacco.

 

 

 

And Brady would have stayed on the bench if Bledsoe wasn't knocked out in a Jets game.

 

Even Tier 1 guys need the circumstances, like I said.

 

Just not as many.

 

Taylor wasn't seeing the field over Flacco because the team was successful with Flacco for several years. They were going to the playoffs and AFC Championships and then won a Super Bowl.

 

Circumstances really aligned for Flacco in the first 5 years of his career, so much so that he bet on himself, won a Super Bowl and GOT PAID.

 

Then the team couldn't afford more talent because all that money was going to Flacco and look what happened.

 

You legitimately think Eli and Flacco are so much better than Taylor right now? Totally disagree. In fact, I bet if Taylor were the QB of the Giants right now the Giants would be a better team and have more than 1 win.

 

Lots of stars need to align to be a long term NFL starter at the most important position in sports, no matter how much talent he has

[Kelly the Dog]

I think there needs to be at least six tiers. Each has anywhere from 3-9 players. 

 

Elite

Franchise

Sometimes or No Longer Franchise

You Can Win With But Average

Too Early to Tell

Journeyman

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

5 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Another?

 

Been here since the beginning of March. I've started 14 threads since I've been here, 10 about Taylor.  I'm barely averaging 1 thread a month.  Plenty of posters on here are much, much worse.

 

No need to enter them if you don't want to discuss, ya know

 

You know it’s bad when a 71% rate for TT threads is considered below average. 

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

Any system that puts Matt Ryan and guys like Fitz and Nick Foles and Keenum and McCown in the same tier has no real utility or usefulness.

 

 

 

I overstated that. In one way it has a ton of utility.

 

If you set out specifically to find a system that will put Tyrod Taylor in the same category as Stafford, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, Carson Palmer, Derek Carr, Eli, Dalton, Prescott, Andrew Luck and a few other similar guys, this is pretty much the system you'd have to come up with.

Edited November 7, 2017 by Thurman#1

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

This is a poor and useless way to split QBs, or players in general.

 

Trying to pretend that the vast majority of QBs have the ability/capability to be a franchise QB is like attaching a giant flashing light to your forehead saying "Doesn't get it."

 

All you have to do is go look at the QBs on nfl.com who've put up stats this year. There are like 60 of them. It's not even a majority of them that have the possibility of being franchise guys, much less a "vast majority."

 

The vast majority of those guys are the ones labelled journeymen, fringe starters or bridge QBs. 

 

A three-tier ranking system is about a half-step up from useless. But if you need to use a three-tier system, the third tier of journeymen, bridge QBs and fringe starters, backups and on their way out -  is where most QBs would be. And that includes Tyrod. Elite is about five or six guys. There are maybe 12 -18 franchise guys including the elites, so tier two would be non-elite franchise guys, the ones who can feel comfortable that teams aren't actively trying to replace them. And everyone else is below that.

 

Any useful system would have more tiers for guys who are extremely young and unknowns or guys with a decent chance of sliding up one day into the franchise tier and maybe career backups.

 

 

 

Here's the guys listed at NFL.com as having stats this year:

 

Tom Brady

Alex Smith

Russell Wilson

Carson Wentz

Drew Brees

Matt Ryan 

Kirk Cousins 

Ben Roethlisberger

Jared Goff

Philip Rivers

Josh McCown

Cam Newton

Carson Palmer

Derek Carr

Jacoby Brissett

Jameis Winston

Matthew Stafford

Eli Manning

Dak Prescott

Andy Dalton

Deshaun Watson

Trevor Siemian

Blake Bortles

Tyrod Taylor

Case Keenum

Joe Flacco

Marcus Mariota

Aaron Rodgers

Jay Cutler

DeShone Kizer

CJ Beathard

Mike Glennon

Kevin Hogan

Mitchell Trubisky

Sam Bradford

Matt More

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Tom Savage

Drew Stanton

EJ Manuel

Brett Hundley

Brock Osweiler

Matt Cassel

Scott Tolzien

Cody Kessler

Ryan Mallett

Robert Golden

Nick Foles

Derek Anderson

Sean Mannion

Cooper Rush

Chad Henne

Geno Smith

 

... and there are a bunch more who don't have stats yet this year.

 

And you think the "vast majority" are Tier 2? That's utterly senseless. Any system that puts Matt Ryan and guys like Fitz and Nick Foles and Keenum and McCown in the same tier has no real utility or usefulness.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Awwwww Thurm I've missed you so much, too!!!

 

I thought it was pretty obvious I meant vast majority of starting QBs in the NFL, but since you're including all those guys with any stats whatsoever, why didn't you include all the trick plays where a non QB threw the ball, too?

 

I'm disappointed. Clearly you don't read what you respond to since I obviously put Fitz and McCown in a separate tier from Ryan.

 

i directly said those 2 specifically were in a separate tier.

 

If you were once someone who taught journalism or was an aspiring journalist yourself, I'm pretty disappointed considering how careless you're becoming.

 

Really, though, I'm sorry that fun effort was wasted

 

 

So, there are at least 18 guys better than Taylor right now?

 

Who?

Edited November 7, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[Heavy Kevi]

As much as Tyrod frustrates me sometimes, I will admit I often think we should take the "Alex Smith" approach with him and let him start for years hoping he puts it all together at some point.

 

And sometimes the anemic 3 and outs make me want to smash something. 

 

I guess I'm a bit bipolar about Tyrod.

[transplantbillsfan]

17 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

I think there needs to be at least six tiers. Each has anywhere from 3-9 players. 

 

Elite

Franchise

Sometimes or No Longer Franchise

You Can Win With But Average

Too Early to Tell

Journeyman

 

These are reactionary tiers.

 

They are tiers that exist solely "in the moment" as safe picks.

 

Those 3 tiers are what those NFL QBs ultimately are rather than how we judge them.

 

Like with Goff, he'd be in your "too early to tell" category, but the reality is that he just is whatever he is.

 

Rich Gannon was always a talented QB, but he wasn't always throwing to Jerry Rice and Tim Brown. Suddenly, he looked like a Franchise QB.

 

That's why he's tier 2.

[Kelly the Dog]

4 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

These are reactionary tiers.

 

They are tiers that exist solely "in the moment" as safe picks.

 

Those 3 tiers are what those NFL QBs ultimately are rather than how we judge them.

 

Like with Goff, he'd be in your "too early to tell" category, but the reality is that he just is whatever he is.

 

Rich Gannon was always a talented QB, but he wasn't always throwing to Jerry Rice and Tim Brown. Suddenly, he looked like a Franchise QB.

 

That's why he's tier 2.

I just don't see how you can lump clearly inferior players with clearly superior ones into such a huge category. Guys like Goff, right now, you don't know what you have. You don't know what you have with Marriota or Winston. Wentz looks like a franchise guy now but so did Nick Foles on the same team in basically the same circumstance. Guys like Eli were once franchise but are complete also rans now.

[Thurman#1]

27 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

I just don't see how you can lump clearly inferior players with clearly superior ones into such a huge category. Guys like Goff, right now, you don't know what you have. You don't know what you have with Marriota or Winston. Wentz looks like a franchise guy now but so did Nick Foles on the same team in basically the same circumstance. Guys like Eli were once franchise but are complete also rans now.

 

 

Yeah, it wouldn't make sense. But if you understand that it's his specific purpose to find a way, no matter how bizarre, to fit Tyrod in the same category as guys like Stafford, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, Carson Palmer, Derek Carr, Eli, Dalton, Prescott, Andrew Luck and a few other similar guys it all makes sense. 

 

He's not trying put guys in sensible categories. He's trying to find categories that will allow him to spin things so Tyrod gets put in with franchise guys.

[Thurman#1]

48 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I thought it was pretty obvious I meant vast majority of starting QBs in the NFL, but since you're including all those guys with any stats whatsoever, why didn't you include all the trick plays where a non QB threw the ball, too?

 

 

I'm sure it was obvious to anyone with ESP and an interest in reading your mind. For the rest of us, "QBs" does not equal "starting QBs."

 

 

 

So, there are at least 18 guys better than Taylor right now?

 

Who?

 

 

Holy cow. What an insanely difficult question. 18 guys better than Tyrod? Wow, this might take me nearly three seconds of thought and a minute of typing to answer. 

 

1. Tom Brady

2. Russell Wilson

3 Carson Wentz

4. Drew Brees

5. Matt Ryan 

6. Kirk Cousins 

7. Ben Roethlisberger

8. Jared Goff

9. Philip Rivers

10. Cam Newton

11. Derek Carr

12. Jameis Winston

13. Matthew Stafford

14. Andrew Luck

15. Dak Prescott

16. Andy Dalton

17. Deshaun Watson

18. Aaron Rodgers

 

Had to cut Bridgewater/Stafford to get it down to 18 and there were a couple of others if I hadn't lost interest. There isn't a GM in the league who has one of these guys on his roster who wouldn't laugh in the face of someone trying to trade Tyrod Taylor for him. 

 

But it was more difficult than I thought. Took me nearly 30 seconds longer than I thought to type the list.

 

 

 

 

[KD in CA]

6 hours ago, NoSaint said:

My man.... another Tyrod thread from you? 

 

Reminds me of new poster tiers

 

Tier 1 posters:  less than 2 Tyrod threads per year

Tier 2 :  2-5 Tyrod threads per year

Tier 3:  6+ Tyrod threads per year

[transplantbillsfan]

7 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I'm sure it was obvious to anyone with ESP and an interest in reading your mind. For the rest of us, "QBs" does not equal "starting QBs."

 

 

 

 

 

Funny, you seem to be the only guy who assumed I meant every QB who's taken even a single snap in the history of the NFL.

 

Anyway, disregarding your unnecessarily (but expected) snarky response to a pretty straightforward correction, I'm glad we cleared up something everyone else seemed to understand except you.

 

 

 

PS: This is an actual question- Are you really a Bills fan, or do you just like to argue so you latched onto one of the most consistent losers in sports so you could argue the "glass is half empty" position incessantly because, well, that's just who you are?  

[transplantbillsfan]

20 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I'm sure it was obvious to anyone with ESP and an interest in reading your mind. For the rest of us, "QBs" does not equal "starting QBs."

 

 

 

 

Holy cow. What an insanely difficult question. 18 guys better than Tyrod? Wow, this might take me nearly three seconds of thought and a minute of typing to answer. 

 

1. Tom Brady

2. Russell Wilson

3 Carson Wentz

4. Drew Brees

5. Matt Ryan 

6. Kirk Cousins 

7. Ben Roethlisberger

8. Jared Goff

9. Philip Rivers

10. Cam Newton

11. Derek Carr

12. Jameis Winston

13. Matthew Stafford

14. Andrew Luck

15. Dak Prescott

16. Andy Dalton

17. Deshaun Watson

18. Aaron Rodgers

 

Had to cut Bridgewater/Stafford to get it down to 18 and there were a couple of others if I hadn't lost interest. There isn't a GM in the league who has one of these guys on his roster who wouldn't laugh in the face of someone trying to trade Tyrod Taylor for him. 

 

But it was more difficult than I thought. Took me nearly 30 seconds longer than I thought to type the list.

 

 

 

 

 

First of all, much like that standard deviation article from a month or two ago, I think you're really missing the point of the tiers themselves.

 

For example:

 

-Prescott might be losing Elliot for 6 games. I'm surprised it  hasn't already happened, but when it does, do you want to bet that Prescott looks worse as a QB? Oh, plus he's had the best OL in the NFL for 2 years.

 

-Carr. See rookie year followed by drafting of Cooper, acquisition of OL and building up what would be one of the best OLs in the NFL and voila!!!

 

-We've seen Andy Dalton without AJ Green and Tyler Eifert. Certainly nothing special.

 

-We saw Goff last year without McVay and Woods and Watkins and Cooper Kupp. He sucked.

 

-Kirk Cousins has worked under some of the more brilliant offensive minds in the NFL since he's started in McVay and last names Gruden and Shanahan.

 

-Jameis Winston?!?! pfffft!!! Taylor's better than him right now for sure. Dude's got all the weapons he could ever ask for and a HC who was an OC who practically turned Matthew Stafford into an MVP and you legitimately think he's better than Taylor? I think you undervalue how much coaches and GMs want to protect the football.

 

-I guess you're just a volume guy if you're putting Rivers up there still, too. Not anymore.

 

 

That's just a handful I felt like going through right now, might do more tomorrow.

 

But yep, Taylor's like all those guys I just mentioned: right system and/or play caller and/or weapons and/or running game and/or OL, etc. and then you get a Franchise QB

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

First of all, much like that standard deviation article from a month or two ago, I think you're really missing the point of the tiers themselves.

 

For example:

 

-Prescott might be losing Elliot for 6 games. I'm surprised it  hasn't already happened, but when it does, do you want to bet that Prescott looks worse as a QB? Oh, plus he's had the best OL in the NFL for 2 years.

 

-Carr. See rookie year followed by drafting of Cooper, acquisition of OL and building up what would be one of the best OLs in the NFL and voila!!!

 

-We've seen Andy Dalton without AJ Green and Tyler Eifert. Certainly nothing special.

 

-We saw Goff last year without McVay and Woods and Watkins and Cooper Kupp. He sucked.

 

-Kirk Cousins has worked under some of the more brilliant offensive minds in the NFL since he's started in McVay and last names Gruden and Shanahan.

 

-Jameis Winston?!?! pfffft!!! Taylor's better than him right now for sure. Dude's got all the weapons he could ever ask for and a HC who was an OC who practically turned Matthew Stafford into an MVP and you legitimately think he's better than Taylor? I think you undervalue how much coaches and GMs want to protect the football.

 

-I guess you're just a volume guy if you're putting Rivers up there still, too. Not anymore.

 

 

That's just a handful I felt like going through right now, might do more tomorrow.

 

But yep, Taylor's like all those guys I just mentioned: right system and/or play caller and/or weapons and/or running game and/or OL, etc. and then you get a Franchise QB

 

 

 

Gee, what a surprise! Transplant's got a justification for every guy. Who'd have guessed that, except, you know, anyone who knows about his desperate crush on Tyrod and obsession with spinning things to make him look better.

 

He thinks I missed his point, but that would be pretty hard ... his point is a bunch of pathetic justifications tied together by a guy incapable of seeing how the world looks to people without man-crushes on Tyrod.

 

Look at the assumption he makes for Goff. He's incapable of understanding that rookie QBs often improve a whole ton before their second year and that rookie QBs often make a ton of mistakes. Can't be improvement in a young guy!!! No, no, it has to be all due to his surroundings!!! That's indeed how the world looks to a man desperate to spin Tyrod up and anyone who's not Tyrod down.

 

 

 

I say Rivers, Cousins, Prescott and the rest are better than Tyrod. And he's arguing. Good grief.

 

Again, you wouldn't find a GM to trade Tyrod for any of those guys, you just wouldn't.

 

 

Edited November 7, 2017 by Thurman#1

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Again, you wouldn't find a GM to trade Tyrod for any of those guys, you just wouldn't.

Even in the NFL 

 

You can't fix Stupid.  

 

Denver (per rumors) 

[Iron Maiden]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I'm sure it was obvious to anyone with ESP and an interest in reading your mind. For the rest of us, "QBs" does not equal "starting QBs."

 

 

 

 

Holy cow. What an insanely difficult question. 18 guys better than Tyrod? Wow, this might take me nearly three seconds of thought and a minute of typing to answer. 

 

1. Tom Brady

2. Russell Wilson

3 Carson Wentz

4. Drew Brees

5. Matt Ryan 

6. Kirk Cousins 

7. Ben Roethlisberger

8. Jared Goff

9. Philip Rivers

10. Cam Newton

11. Derek Carr

12. Jameis Winston

13. Matthew Stafford

14. Andrew Luck

15. Dak Prescott

16. Andy Dalton

17. Deshaun Watson

18. Aaron Rodgers

 

Had to cut Bridgewater/Stafford to get it down to 18 and there were a couple of others if I hadn't lost interest. There isn't a GM in the league who has one of these guys on his roster who wouldn't laugh in the face of someone trying to trade Tyrod Taylor for him. 

 

But it was more difficult than I thought. Took me nearly 30 seconds longer than I thought to type the list.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I agree.......who do you want leading your offense...to be a general out there...if all NFL teams had a shot at any QB out there, TT would probably be picked at around 20-25.....

[NoSaint]

6 hours ago, KD in CA said:

 

Reminds me of new poster tiers

 

Tier 1 posters:  less than 2 Tyrod threads per year

Tier 2 :  2-5 Tyrod threads per year

Tier 3:  6+ Tyrod threads per year

But will he get over 5 pages in responses AND get the most likes in the thread?

 

go on record now!

[Billsfan1972]

I've said it before and will reiterate......  TT with a decent OC, would be a very serviceable QB.  The FO did all they could to torpedo him and the offense this year.  However a funny thing happened (prior to the Jets game) and the Bills were winning.  They had two what looked like marquee wins against teams that now appear to be less then their press clippings (Denver & Atlanta), and solid wins vs. NYJ & Oakland and actually a 4th Q win vs Tampa.  They also had a ridiculous turnover differential with every bounce & tip going their way.  And two tight losses.

 

I feel bad for TT as with any decent coaching and last years weapons, this team could really be good, and maybe adding Benjamin they will be, but it will come down to the coaching and playcalling.

 

Again I've watched Goff, and he is not that good.  He has had a great OC and talent around him.

 

Wentz too has played really well, but if he was a Bill I'd wouldn't be so sure.

 

Nice that the Bills decided to get help for the Offense halfway through the season, but my question is.......  What took them so long?

 

 

 

 

[Wayne Arnold]

Taylor is somewhere between the 15th to 20th best QB in the NFL.

 

A solid stop-gap.

 

Someday we'll land our Deshaun Watson or Dak Prescott. Until then, Taylor is okay.

[Royale with Cheese]

7 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said:

I think there needs to be at least six tiers. Each has anywhere from 3-9 players. 

 

Elite

Franchise

Sometimes or No Longer Franchise

You Can Win With But Average

Too Early to Tell

Journeyman

 

This is exactly what I was thinking too.

 

I would put Taylor in between tier 3 and 4....so I guess 3.5?

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

28 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

This is exactly what I was thinking too.

 

I would put Taylor in between tier 3 and 4....so I guess 3.5?

 

29 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

8 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said:

I think there needs to be at least six tiers. Each has anywhere from 3-9 players. 

 

Elite

Franchise

Sometimes or No Longer Franchise

You Can Win With But Average

Too Early to Tell

Journeyman

I agree with both. 
I wanted to post similar yesterday but I decided to not stir the pot 

You Can Win With But Average  aka You Can Win With But they can't carry the team alone. 

[row_33]

Fair enough, he's Tier 2, but his attitude and leadership demonstrated is the lower level of Tier 3

 

whether that's due to inability (a bit) or coaching not bothering to play to his strengths (a bigger factor) is up for grabs

 

and some have said that looking like you have a clue what you are doing is 75% of being an NFL QB.

 

 

[yungmack]

9 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

Don't like the breakdown. 

 

You need another tier between the Tier 1 "ultra elites" and the Tier 2 "most guys in the league".

 

There is another tier there of very good QBs who are categorically better than someone like Tyrod, but who are not the ultra elite Tier 1 guys either. 

 

Your way puts Tyrod in with Eli Manning and Flacco.  No way is Tyrod in the same tier, even if Flacco has looked pretty darned bad this year.  

 

Remember, Tyrod is the guy who would have sat on the bench for 500 years in Baltimore, because he is not Joe Flacco.

 

 

And if Bledsoe hadn't been injured, how long would Brady have sat on the bench?

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, yungmack said:

And if Bledsoe hadn't been injured, how long would Brady have sat on the bench?

 

Probably not long.  Bledsoe struggled the previous year and struggled early on the next year....then he got crushed by Lewis.

They were 5-13 with Belicheck before Brady took over.

[transplantbillsfan]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Gee, what a surprise! Transplant's got a justification for every guy. Who'd have guessed that, except, you know, anyone who knows about his desperate crush on Tyrod and obsession with spinning things to make him look better.

 

He thinks I missed his point, but that would be pretty hard ... his point is a bunch of pathetic justifications tied together by a guy incapable of seeing how the world looks to people without man-crushes on Tyrod.

 

Look at the assumption he makes for Goff. He's incapable of understanding that rookie QBs often improve a whole ton before their second year and that rookie QBs often make a ton of mistakes. Can't be improvement in a young guy!!! No, no, it has to be all due to his surroundings!!! That's indeed how the world looks to a man desperate to spin Tyrod up and anyone who's not Tyrod down.

 

 

 

I say Rivers, Cousins, Prescott and the rest are better than Tyrod. And he's arguing. Good grief.

 

Again, you wouldn't find a GM to trade Tyrod for any of those guys, you just wouldn't.

 

 

 

I'm sorry, do you not expect that people would ever disagree with you?

 

Are you coming on a discussion board to discuss or do you have some fantasy that you're actually standing on a soapbox in the middle of a park and that everyone must listen to you and when people disagree, your autopilot is to be incredibly arrogant and snarky?

 

I still don't think think you got the gist of the thread. I don't think that Taylor is better than all those guys. I think Taylor has the ability to be as good as or as successful as all of the tier 2 guys. He'll never touch tier one.