YoloinOhio Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 Agents Take: Recent draft history shows first-round QBs are more likely to fail http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-recent-draft-history-shows-first-round-qbs-are-more-likely-to-fail/ Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. NFL executives making decisions about first-round draft choices should heed this warning particularly when there isn't a strong group of quarterbacks available like this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mij yllek Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 completely agree, but if some team is stupid enough to trade up to the #10 spot to grab a QB we should accommodate them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 It's a mystery to me why teams don't get this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted April 18, 2017 Author Share Posted April 18, 2017 There are 6 teams ahead of us either without a franchise QB or one that will need replaced soon due to age - Cleveland, SF, Jax, Chargers, Chicago, Jets. If any of the supposed 1st rd QBs are there at 10 its a sign they aren't top 10 worthy, or the Bills are smarter than those 6 teams. I don't care if they draft one of them but reaching is bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 Joke article. Wentz/Goff were not transcendent prospects compared to Watson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chandler#81 Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 with the 'You gotta have a great QB to compete consistently' mantra that drives the NFL, if you're a Have-Not, you HAVE to try. Every team lacking a great QB does this; has scouts at every game of a college QB they 'think' might be the guy, visit with the player, run him through paces to see how quickly he grasps situations, all the research at their disposal -which is significant. Still, it's always a crap shoot. Will he turn out to be Ryan Leaf/Jamarcus Russell? Will he suffer an early career injury that does him in ala Greg Cook? Will he not be able to grasp the speed of the pro game? Sure, there's far more failures than successes, but you just can't stop looking until the player leads the team to playoffs. Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott are classic examples of players that possessed the goods but were thought to be projects. There's no other explanation than 'ya never know..' Keep trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 Most qbs drafted will fail. It's laughable how people try to pretend like they know anything about scouting qbs. That said and I know everyone hates him, but a guy like EJ might have had a better chance if he went later in the draft to a better team. One of the best things that happened to Tyrod is getting drafted in the 6th and playing for Baltimore. A lot less pressure to develop. But the main problem with the Bills is they have no plan. Once they played EJ, he should have gotten 2 years to play through the struggles. If they draft a guy and don't want him to play right away, then let him sit. It's why now is the perfect time to draft a qb. No pressure to play right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBud420 Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 So let's not try and live with mediocrity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 So let's not try and live with mediocrity. you can still try, but it doesn't have to be a reach in the first round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBud420 Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 you can still try, but it doesn't have to be a reach in the first round. Ok...but probably 8 of the top 10 qbs were 1st round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted April 18, 2017 Author Share Posted April 18, 2017 (edited) Most qbs drafted will fail. It's laughable how people try to pretend like they know anything about scouting qbs. That said and I know everyone hates him, but a guy like EJ might have had a better chance if he went later in the draft to a better team. One of the best things that happened to Tyrod is getting drafted in the 6th and playing for Baltimore. A lot less pressure to develop. But the main problem with the Bills is they have no plan. Once they played EJ, he should have gotten 2 years to play through the struggles. If they draft a guy and don't want him to play right away, then let him sit. It's why now is the perfect time to draft a qb. No pressure to play right away. i agree. Unfortunately recent history also shows that QBs who sit before the play don't succeed either. There has been only one QB drafted since 2006 who sat at least on year and developed into what looks like a franchise QB: Kurt Cousins. So if you think history is likely to predict the future, don't take a QB in the first (if he's not graded there) and sit him behind the starter for any length of time. Draft a QB where he's graded (don't reach) and play him right away for best odds. Another interesting article: Why picking a QB in the 2017 NFL draft is an even bigger gamble than usual Look at the numbers, and its clear these prospects arent anywhere near sure things. http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/2017/4/18/15239558/2017-nfl-draft-quarterbacks-mitch-trubisky-deshaun-watson Edited April 18, 2017 by YoloinOhio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayray808 Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 there are also teams on that list who guessed right and made it to Super Bowls because of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 (edited) you can still try, but it doesn't have to be a reach in the first round. Starting NFL QB is the most important position in all of sports. It’s also the hardest one to find. Rare is the Andrew Luck “you know for sure” perfect scenario. So taking a QB in the first round is a leap of faith that you must eventually take or you will never be anything more than a blip on the NFL radar. You will forever be NFL wallpaper. The importance of the position is to monumental too ignore year after year. The article is a broad brush one which is empty and meaningless to a team without a QB like the Bills. There are only so many people on the planet that have the incredible arm and the drive to compete that Mahomes has, or who did what Watson did to the Bama defense two years in a row. These guys aren’t the chumps the media has made them out to be. Either one meets the requirements of becoming possible franchise QBs on those conditions alone, and thus worthy of the #10 pick overall to the Bills IMO. Edited April 18, 2017 by 1billsfan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted April 18, 2017 Author Share Posted April 18, 2017 One reason why Whaley might push for a QB in the 1st rd, per Jay Skurski: job security http://buffalonews.com/2017/04/18/one-reason-doug-whaley-might-push-first-round-quarterback/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CookieG Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 So let's not try and live with mediocrity. Huh? Our plan of using our top pick on a DB every other year has given us an annual playoff berth. Oh wait..nm. Of course, we could go with the safe pick...the pass rushing DE who's a day one starter... The last 2 No. 1's used on that position have produced a combined 2 sacks and 21 tackles in 3 seasons. These so called "safe" and "fill-a-need" picks haven't gotten us very far. If there is a QB they think has a good chance of being a franchise QB, even if he sits for a year or 2..I have no problem with taking him at 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostbitmic Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 Draft a QB in the 6th round. Recent history would suggest that QB's drafted in the 6th round are more likely to win their division, the AFC, and the Super Bowl than other draft round QB's. The Bills have their 6th round QB so the titles should start rolling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted April 18, 2017 Author Share Posted April 18, 2017 (edited) Draft a QB in the 6th round. Recent history would suggest that QB's drafted in the 6th round are more likely to win their division, the AFC, and the Super Bowl than other draft round QB's. The Bills have their 6th round QB so the titles should start rolling in. i assume this is a joke but one never knows with this board. Just in case... Brady isn't "recent" and his success as a 6th rd pick isn't a trend that has been replicated, it's the exception. Edited April 18, 2017 by YoloinOhio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 i agree. Unfortunately recent history also shows that QBs who sit before the play don't succeed either. There has been only one QB drafted since 2006 who sat at least on year and developed into what looks like a franchise QB: Kurt Cousins. So if you think history is likely to predict the future, don't take a QB in the first (if he's not graded there) and sit him behind the starter for any length of time. Draft a QB where he's graded (don't reach) and play him right away for best odds. Another interesting article: Why picking a QB in the 2017 NFL draft is an even bigger gamble than usual http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/2017/4/18/15239558/2017-nfl-draft-quarterbacks-mitch-trubisky-deshaun-watson Agreed but look at some of the best qbs in the NFL: Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Big Ben, Palmer. These guys all sat. Media and the fans have more access to be annoying. We love calling qbs busts after start one. History says most qbs benefit from learning from a veteran qb and not being rushed on the field. Unfortunately, there is no patience anymore. I am 100% in favor of drafting a qb high this year and letting them start on the bench. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr1 Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 Peterman threw 47td to 15int in a similar climate to Buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostbitmic Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 Agreed but look at some of the best qbs in the NFL: Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Big Ben, Palmer. These guys all sat. Media and the fans have more access to be annoying. We love calling qbs busts after start one. History says most qbs benefit from learning from a veteran qb and not being rushed on the field. Unfortunately, there is no patience anymore. I am 100% in favor of drafting a qb high this year and letting them start on the bench. Around here we call them busts after playing the 4th quarter of game 17, with an interim HC in his 1st game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickrage Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 Get a wr. Get a cb. Get Kelly. Fill out the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Figster Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 Look at some of the scouting reports on Tyrod Taylor or many of the later round draft picks that despite claims went on to become NFL starters. The best QB to ever play the game in my humble opinion was a late round draft choice. They get it wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 Huh? Our plan of using our top pick on a DB every other year has given us an annual playoff berth. Oh wait..nm. Of course, we could go with the safe pick...the pass rushing DE who's a day one starter... The last 2 No. 1's used on that position have produced a combined 2 sacks and 21 tackles in 3 seasons. These so called "safe" and "fill-a-need" picks haven't gotten us very far. If there is a QB they think has a good chance of being a franchise QB, even if he sits for a year or 2..I have no problem with taking him at 10. the problem is there's going to be a typical crew that will B word about the bills not taking a qb in the first. we talk about safe picks, but it's just as awful when you reach for a position of need. if the bills think there's a qb at 10 they want...i'm all for it. but if they decide to pass in the first round on some guys, it's likely they don't think the value or worth is there, not that they don't need to upgrade the qb position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CountDorkula Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 There are 6 teams ahead of us either without a franchise QB or one that will need replaced soon due to age - Cleveland, SF, Jax, Chargers, Chicago, Jets. If any of the supposed 1st rd QBs are there at 10 its a sign they aren't top 10 worthy, or the Bills are smarter than those 6 teams. I don't care if they draft one of them but reaching is bad No its not, this is the stupidest thing in terms of the NFL Draft. Guy gets drafted "Oh hes a reach" I had him pegged for a 2nd rd pick not a first. What the F(*_^ is the difference, if he can play, he can play. the NFL Draft is complete SH** and nobody knows a damn thing about any of the prospects. You may think you know but you don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderingsquid Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 And the Bills' recent draft history shows no matter what we do in the first round any move is considered a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CountDorkula Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 there are also teams on that list who guessed right and made it to Super Bowls because of it I bet those teams are still angry that they "reached" for that QB..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted April 18, 2017 Author Share Posted April 18, 2017 I bet those teams are still angry that they "reached" for that QB.....maybe they didn't reach? They may have had them graded there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 maybe they didn't reach? They may have had them graded there. i think people are all over the place with the idea of reach vs safe pick, etc. teams have to establish a board and follow it. if there's a qb they like, snag him. people just can't get locked into the idea that if a qb isn't taken in the first, it's the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riverboat Richie Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 i think people are all over the place with the idea of reach vs safe pick, etc. teams have to establish a board and follow it. if there's a qb they like, snag him. people just can't get locked into the idea that if a qb isn't taken in the first, it's the end of the world. That's what fans do. That's why they remain fans and never turn into GMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted April 18, 2017 Author Share Posted April 18, 2017 (edited) No its not, this is the stupidest thing in terms of the NFL Draft. Guy gets drafted "Oh hes a reach" I had him pegged for a 2nd rd pick not a first. What the F(*_^ is the difference, if he can play, he can play. the NFL Draft is complete SH** and nobody knows a damn thing about any of the prospects. You may think you know but you don't. i don't have anyone pegged anywhere, not sure what you mean. If a team has a QB graded as a 1st rd pick then sure take him there. If they don't and they grade him as a 2nd round pick, don't take him in the 1st just because he's a QB. That's when it's considered a reach. Edited April 18, 2017 by YoloinOhio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CountDorkula Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 i don't have anyone pegged anywhere, not sure what you mean. If a team has a QB graded as a 1st rd pick then sure take him there. If they don't and they grade him as a 2nd round pick, don't take him in the 1st just because he's a QB. That's when it's considered a reach. Didnt mean you**** Just in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chuck Wagon Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 Pretty certain QBs taken in any round are more likely to fail than succeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 If Derek Carr was taken in the top 10, he'd still be good. Reaching is fine, within reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 I hate small sample sizes - the results can be very misleading. I'm pretty sure if you look back at the past 40 years, more good QBs come out of the first round than the second, and more come from the early rounds than the later rounds. The odds get progressively longer the deeper you go into the draft. But even the first round doesn't product sure-fire-hits. You're odds aren't good in the first round but they are better than the later rounds. Hopefully we have good scouts who know what to look for to maximize our chances - but we have no particular reason to believe that. Our college scouting has not been stellar under Whaley. My take is that we should draft a QB every other year until we score a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted April 18, 2017 Author Share Posted April 18, 2017 Didnt mean you**** Just in general. ok I know a lot of people here actually do have grades and such on players ... that's why I thought you meant my own grades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 (edited) Around here we call them busts after playing the 4th quarter of game 17, with an interim HC in his 1st game True. One "fan" has already labeled Cardale a failure because has not progressed as rapidly as his "contemporaries" (i.e., Russell Wilson, Kurt Cousins, etc) and someone else said he obviously sucks because he didn't start his rookie year. Until a guy gets a meaningful opportunity to play, you don't know what he can do. We are now going into year three of Tyrod Taylor and the team is still not sure what they've got. (I know many will argue that point.) That's why "drafting a QB every year" is a bad idea. Edited April 18, 2017 by mannc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riverboat Richie Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 Is it they team they go to or where they were drafted that makes the difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris heff Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 The jury is still out on some guy's on that list, but success rate is between 40% to 50%. Probably higher than all other rounds combined. Not sure if that means anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 Agents Take: Recent draft history shows first-round QBs are more likely to fail http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-recent-draft-history-shows-first-round-qbs-are-more-likely-to-fail/ I kind of feel as though it's a misleading article. It's a fact that QB drafted in the first round are more likely to fail than to succeed, but the same is true of QB drafted in any round - and the odds are higher for success in the first round. If you go up to 2013, which I think is fair given that QB may need a few years to be evaluated, I count 7/18 success or about 40%. The odds are even lower if you look at QB selected 2 - 4th round It's also a fact that draft picks in general, even in the first round, have similar odds of success: less than even-steven So overall I'm not quite sure what the author's point is? You need to take shots, just don't expect more than half your shots to be successful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBills14 Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 Every time I see threads like this I think about all of the mock drafts that had us picking Nassib at 12. Thank God we didn't... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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