Passing stats, wins and fishsticks...

[r00tabaga]

Philip Rivers

18-29 178 yds 1/0

WIN

[The Wiz]

Where are the fishsticks?

[r00tabaga]

There to reel you in.

 

I watched them stay committed to the run last night even when Denver appeared to completely shut Gordon down. They protected the rock, played great defense themselves and didn't have many passing yds but got a Buffalo style victory.

[NoSaint]

how many wins you think most teams would end up with if they produced 2800 passing yards and 16 TDs in a year? just so we can gauge how sustainable you think that is.

[Fadingpain]

how many wins you think most teams would end up with if they produced 2800 passing yards and 16 TDs in a year? just so we can gauge how sustainable you think that is.

Shhhhhh!

 

He's on a roll.

 

You're going to kill the positive vibe he's tapping into!

Where are the fishsticks?

Here you go, buddy.

 

I wonder what the back of that box says, by the way.

 

Probably something like "Now containing 10% real fish!"

 

[bobobonators]

how many wins you think most teams would end up with if they produced 2800 passing yards and 16 TDs in a year? just so we can gauge how sustainable you think that is.

the vikings went 11-5 with teddy passing for 14TD's last season. In a division full of passing offenses.

 

Thats one 🤗

[r00tabaga]

how many wins you think most teams would end up with if they produced 2800 passing yards and 16 TDs in a year? just so we can gauge how sustainable you think that is.

I don't know, how many did Denver get last year? Not digging, just asking. 9-11 wins?

[PromoTheRobot]

Fun fact: Teams with more points, not passing stats, win.

[NoSaint]

I don't know, how many did Denver get last year? Not digging, just asking. 9-11 wins?

4200 yards, but only 19 TDs --

 

and no worries even if digging. i think its a fair discussion. i dont mind that tyrod isnt hitting huge numbers every week, but itd be real nice to see it happen a few times before February.... you can win a good chunk with an EXCELLENT 53 man roster but generally speaking, having a dynamic passing attack goes a long way.

[TSOL]

Yesterday we had a battered balls thread, now, today, a fishsticks thread?

[BringBackOrton]

Fun fact: Teams with more points, not passing stats, win.

Bills are below average in offensive points.

[Kirby Jackson]

Bills are below average in offensive points.

...and above average in wins

[bobobonators]

Bills are below average in offensive points.

Bills are 14th in PPG as a team. Not sure where they rank strictly on offense.

[chris heff]

I never liked fish sticks.

[NoSaint]

Bills are 14th in PPG as a team. Not sure where they rank strictly on offense.

it looks like 19th.... i like to consider that basic range roughly average.

[PatsFanNH]

There to reel you in.

 

I watched them stay committed to the run last night even when Denver appeared to completely shut Gordon down. They protected the rock, played great defense themselves and didn't have many passing yds but got a Buffalo style victory.

The opening drive was all Rivers. A 75 yard drive and he had 85 yards passing lol.

[Forward Progress]

Teams with the lead tend to run the ball more. We've jumped to early leads in each of our last three games, so we've kept the ball on the ground.

 

Teams that are trailing tend to pass the ball more to conserve clock in order to catch up.

 

I have no issue with low passing yards while we are winning games.

 

FP

[PatsFanNH]

Teams with the lead tend to run the ball more. We've jumped to early leads in each of our last three games, so we've kept the ball on the ground.

 

Teams that are trailing tend to pass the ball more to conserve clock in order to catch up.

 

I have no issue with low passing yards while we are winning games.

 

FP

Good point! I would also say teams with a 2 score lead and not facing a Rogers type QB will run more as well.

[Marty McFly]

Where are the fishsticks?

 

There to reel you in.

 

I watched them stay committed to the run last night even when Denver appeared to completely shut Gordon down. They protected the rock, played great defense themselves and didn't have many passing yds but got a Buffalo style victory.

 

In all seriousness tho, that Chargers defense was FLYING to the ball on almost every play. They got a little gassed when Simien was making his comeback attempt (in which he played well above expectations), but held on for the win. Rexy win indeed. Also we need to steal Denvers kicker! That dude was money! He kicked a safety punt into a line men to force the fumble, and then the smoothest onside kick Ive ever seen. Im in my 20s so that dont say much but still very impressive.

[Freddie's Dead]

Bait and switch on the fishsticks? You BASTARD!

Here you go, buddy.

 

I wonder what the back of that box says, by the way.

 

Probably something like "Now containing 10% real fish!"

 

Lived on these things as a kid.

Edited October 14, 2016 by Freddie's Dead

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I don't know, how many did Denver get last year? Not digging, just asking. 9-11 wins?

 

Denver, despite trotting out the pale facimile of Peyton Manning at QB half the season, actually had a mid-league passing game. 14th, almost 4000 yds, 12-4

Denver last year is not a good example for you.

 

You want teams like the Vikes (11-5, 2928 passing yards, 14 passing TDs, 31st in the league passing) and Chiefs (11-5, 3255 passing yards, 20 passing TDs, 30th in the league passing).

 

 

In all seriousness tho, that Chargers defense was FLYING to the ball on almost every play. They got a little gassed when Simien was making his comeback attempt (in which he played well above expectations), but held on for the win. Rexy win indeed. Also we need to steal Denvers kicker! That dude was money! He kicked a safety punt into a line men to force the fumble, and then the smoothest onside kick Ive ever seen. Im in my 20s so that dont say much but still very impressive.

 

I agree, Denver's kicker was their best player last night. And the Chargers D was playing out of their minds.

how many wins you think most teams would end up with if they produced 2800 passing yards and 16 TDs in a year? just so we can gauge how sustainable you think that is.

 

See above post. I think the "most teams" point is a bit off; the real question is "how many wins teams that are built with stifling D and a strong run game would end up with....". But even teams with poor passing games in general manage to put on 1-2 passing clinics a year.

[boyst]

how many wins you think most teams would end up with if they produced 2800 passing yards and 16 TDs in a year? just so we can gauge how sustainable you think that is.

19

[Maury Ballstein]

Tyrod is the best qb ever.

 

I can't even tell him and Phillip Rivers apart.

[bobobonators]

it looks like 19th.... i like to consider that basic range roughly average.

nice, thanks for looking that up

[NoSaint]

 

See above post. I think the "most teams" point is a bit off; the real question is "how many wins teams that are built with stifling D and a strong run game would end up with....". But even teams with poor passing games in general manage to put on 1-2 passing clinics a year.

oh, i get it. i just thought it was a better conversation piece than simply the stat line in the OP.

 

you can be a good team but need 11(+) guys on defense playing lights out and a top notch running game. which gets harder and harder when you pay the qb (if we stretch the conversation all the way from single game up to actual team building).

 

i think the crowd that wants to see some more out of the passing game isnt unfair at this point. I also think we have a team that can put up an ok record without a dominating qb (though come january if you are a WC team that has to win 3 on the road to make the big dance -- id sure like to see all of the above coming together with a full 53 producing)

[BringBackOrton]

...and above average in wins

For now.

[Marty McFly]

Tyrod is the best qb ever.

 

I can't even tell him and Phillip Rivers apart.

Bastard!

[Kirby Jackson]

For now.

I don't see that changing over the next few weeks. The Bills have a winning record and should continue to. They are playing a style that best suits their roster.

[metzelaars_lives]

it looks like 19th.... i like to consider that basic range roughly average.

My assumption is that you assumed here that only the Bills have scored points on defense.

[BringBackOrton]

I don't see that changing over the next few weeks. The Bills have a winning record and should continue to. They are playing a style that best suits their roster.

We will face an offense we can't out score. You can't wait out the Case Keenum's of the world every week.

My assumption is that you assumed here that only the Bills have scored points on defense.

You know what they say about assuming.

[BillsVet]

...and above average in wins

 

The season is a marathon and not a sprint or even a middle distance event. If success were measured by the first 5 weeks of the season, plenty of teams in the past would have made the playoffs that didn't at the end of the year.

 

the vikings went 11-5 with teddy passing for 14TD's last season. In a division full of passing offenses.

 

Thats one

 

If the goal is to make the playoffs, strong defense and enough offense can work. Even Dick Jauron went 13-3 in 2001 with the Bears.

 

But it's not a plan to be a dominant team.

[GunnerBill]

I think two arguments are getting conflated here.

 

1. Can the Bills carry on winning this way? Great D, great ST, great run game, protect the ball and enough passing game to get by.

 

The answer to that is sure. Plenty of teams have made the play-offs that way so long as they are consistent in other facets.

 

Then the second question:

 

2. Is Tyrod playing this way enough to establish himself as our franchise Quarterback worth committing two years of guaranteed starter money to as of March next year (which is the way his current contract is structured)?

 

The answer to that remains uncertain for me.

Edited October 14, 2016 by GunnerBill

[NoSaint]

I think two arguments are getting conflated here.

 

1. Can the Bills carry on winning this way? Great D, great ST, great run game, protect the ball and enough passing game to get by.

 

The answer to that is sure. Plenty of teams have made the play-offs that way so long as they are consistent in other facets.

 

Then the second question:

 

2. Is Tyrod playing this way enough to establish himself as our franchise Quarterback worth committing two years of guaranteed starter money to as of March next year (which is the way his current contract is structured)?

 

The answer to that remains uncertain for me.

well, i think its the same issue just carrying it out from 1 week, to 10 weeks to 30 weeks (choosing random benchmarks)

 

can we win any given week with that stat line? Surely

can we win more weeks than not short term? Potentially

can we win more weeks than not long term? its a longer shot.

[sir andrew]

Do you like putting fishsticks in your mouth?

[r00tabaga]

I think two arguments are getting conflated here.

 

1. Can the Bills carry on winning this way? Great D, great ST, great run game, protect the ball and enough passing game to get by.

 

The answer to that is sure. Plenty of teams have made the play-offs that way so long as they are consistent in other facets.

 

Then the second question:

 

2. Is Tyrod playing this way enough to establish himself as our franchise Quarterback worth committing two years of guaranteed starter money to as of March next year (which is the way his current contract is structured)?

 

The answer to that remains uncertain for me.

Ding, Ding, Ding

 

Me too. I'm close to saying yes I need to see better 3rd down & comp %.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

oh, i get it. i just thought it was a better conversation piece than simply the stat line in the OP.

 

you can be a good team but need 11(+) guys on defense playing lights out and a top notch running game. which gets harder and harder when you pay the qb (if we stretch the conversation all the way from single game up to actual team building).

 

i think the crowd that wants to see some more out of the passing game isnt unfair at this point. I also think we have a team that can put up an ok record without a dominating qb (though come january if you are a WC team that has to win 3 on the road to make the big dance -- id sure like to see all of the above coming together with a full 53 producing)

 

I'd like to see more out of the passing game myself at this point. I just like to correct the "no team wins and does playoffs without great passing" meme, great passing certainly helps but teams have been doing it without recently.

[stevewin]

I never liked fish sticks.

I always liked fish sticks, but my wife and kids not so much - so I've pretty much lived a fish stick free adult life

[bobobonators]

What I personally want for this team is to have an identity. I feel that with this regime we are on our way: Pound the ball, take some calculated shots down field, limit turnovers, and play solid defense. Good defense + good running game are two ingredients that will always lead to success more times than not.

 

In the last decade:

 

Seattle has had years of success with a similar approach.

San Francisco made a super bowl run with a similar approach.

The Chiefs have gone 11-5; 9-7; and 11-5 with an almost identical approach the last 3 years.

The Panthers were 24th in passing last year and 2nd in rushing and had a great defensive year - super bowl.

The Jets made the AFC Championship game 2x

The Vikings went 11-5 last year with a similar approach

 

I'm missing several more, those are just the ones that clearly stand out. If you don't have an Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, you need to win as a team - meaning several components need to come together to have sustained success (i.e., good defense + good running game). However, I think that sometimes getting several components to come together can be easier/quicker than waiting for a "franchise QB" to come around.

[NoSaint]

What I personally want for this team is to have an identity. I feel that with this regime we are on our way: Pound the ball, take some calculated shots down field, limit turnovers, and play solid defense. Good defense + good running game are two ingredients that will always lead to success more times than not.

 

In the last decade:

 

Seattle has had years of success with a similar approach.

San Francisco made a super bowl run with a similar approach.

The Chiefs have gone 11-5; 9-7; and 11-5 with an almost identical approach the last 3 years.

The Panthers were 24th in passing last year and 2nd in rushing and had a great defensive year - super bowl.

The Jets made the AFC Championship game 2x

The Vikings went 11-5 last year with a similar approach

 

I'm missing several more, those are just the ones that clearly stand out. If you don't have an Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, you need to win as a team - meaning several components need to come together to have sustained success (i.e., good defense + good running game). However, I think that sometimes getting several components to come together can be easier/quicker than waiting for a "franchise QB" to come around.

like ive been saying, possible, but also if we dig into those.... well... if tyrod puts up 4500 all purpose yards and 45 TDs ala the cam newton season you reference i dont think anyone questions the production from the qb position.

 

the chiefs are probably the most similar in that they are with a vet qb. Right now we are 32nd in passing YPG while the chiefs are 15, (but were 30, 29 and 22 in those 3 seasons, averaging 30-50 ypg more than we are this season).

 

its not impossible to win games this way.... even a good number of games - but a lot does have to line up.

[Kirby Jackson]

We will face an offense we can't out score. You can't wait out the Case Keenum's of the world every week.

You play who is on the schedule. The Bills have won 3 straight and it should continue. Hypotheticals are irrelevant. "You are what your record says you are."

 

The season is a marathon and not a sprint or even a middle distance event. If success were measured by the first 5 weeks of the season, plenty of teams in the past would have made the playoffs that didn't at the end of the year.

 

 

If the goal is to make the playoffs, strong defense and enough offense can work. Even Dick Jauron went 13-3 in 2001 with the Bears.

 

But it's not a plan to be a dominant team.

Welcome back!! This post is sunshine and rainbows for you!! I actually agree with everything that you said. I think a Trent Edwards team startedlike 4 or 5 and 0. The Bills may be a 9 or 10 win team. They are pretty good but not great. They CAN be a playoff team if they win the games that they should. Edited October 14, 2016 by Kirby Jackson