Optimism - or lack thereof

[beerme1]

All this crap is why we'll make the playoffs this year. Some alter universe must be developing. Go Tyrod.

[Nitro]

I really want to see the team make the next step and get into the playoffs. The injury bug will not let it happen. The team is snake bitten and that sucks. If they go 8 & 8 this season, it will be an accomplishment.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Harsh reality losing Ragland for an extended time after losing Shaquille Lawson for a significant time. Last year's defense was not good enough to make the playoffs- maybe was THE reason that they didn't reach the postseason.

 

I think that the Bills' management tried to address that weakness in the draft with Lawson and Ragland, but those plans are now on hold (at least). There is no tangible reason to believe that last year's bad defense will be any better this year - and the offense shouldn't / can't be counted on to carry the load.

 

I know that Mario Williams was blamed for a lot last year, but who will replace him? Who will fill in for Ragland and play at an NFL level? Who will fill in for Manny Lawson who was filling in for Shacquile Lawson?

 

Not a pretty picture 1 week into training camp...

 

I think with the malcontents gone and Rex using his system and not a mashup of polar opposite defenses will go along way to improving the defense. Rex didn't have great pashrushers or LBs with the Jets but when they had a good Dline and we have a good Dline so we should improve.

All this crap is why we'll make the playoffs this year. Some alter universe must be developing. Go Tyrod.

 

....

Regardless of what his many detractors think, Rex will still field a competent D. Season still rides on TT... if he goes down, THEN you can kiss this year goodbye.

 

This

 

Sign Hardy - right now, and play a ton of 4-3 until the rooks get back.

 

We have Spikes, we will be fine, Neither him or Rags is good in coverage so blitz em on third or put in some other of a million packages Rex runs, we will be fine.

Yea BUT all of these idiots keep telling me how Cardale can throw a football over them mountains and that's all it takes to be an NFL QB right?

 

Sarcasm I love it, if Cardale starts we ARE screwed

[GunnerBill]

I am sorry to say my optimism level is pretty low. I can see the defense being better than last year but without Shaq and Reggie (at least at the start of the year) I am not sure I see it taking a big step back into the top 10. A defense that is moderately better than halfway will need to be carried by the offense and I don't know if I see them carrying us to such an extent to be better than 8-8 on a tougher schedule.

 

Nothing would give me more pleasure than to be wrong but I think these Bills are a 7-9 to 8-8 football team.

[Nihilarian]

I am sorry to say my optimism level is pretty low. I can see the defense being better than last year but without Shaq and Reggie (at least at the start of the year) I am not sure I see it taking a big step back into the top 10. A defense that is moderately better than halfway will need to be carried by the offense and I don't know if I see them carrying us to such an extent to be better than 8-8 on a tougher schedule.

 

Nothing would give me more pleasure than to be wrong but I think these Bills are a 7-9 to 8-8 football team.

I concur and I think you are being generous with those predictions.

[nucci]

 

 

We see this season the same way.

 

People forget when Rex took over that NYJ defense he inherited a lot of players that seemed over-the-hill.

 

Those were his most successful units as they took him to two AFC title games.

 

He doesn't need a ton of talent in the front 7......just players that buy in and execute. They have a wealth of talent in the secondary, which is where he needs playmakers.

 

One of the critical mistakes the Jets made was exhausting so many key draft resources on their DL when they had a DC/HC who could get similar production from journeymen.

 

I'd like to see them get some more help at OLB but the reality is that this season is going to be about what TT and the offense can do.

I hope you're correct because I see a top 10 offense here....I think the offense is going to be very good but I have the same concerns about the D

[eball]

Regardless of what his many detractors think, Rex will still field a competent D. Season still rides on TT... if he goes down, THEN you can kiss this year goodbye.

 

 

 

 

We see this season the same way.

 

People forget when Rex took over that NYJ defense he inherited a lot of players that seemed over-the-hill.

 

Those were his most successful units as they took him to two AFC title games.

 

He doesn't need a ton of talent in the front 7......just players that buy in and execute. They have a wealth of talent in the secondary, which is where he needs playmakers.

 

One of the critical mistakes the Jets made was exhausting so many key draft resources on their DL when they had a DC/HC who could get similar production from journeymen.

 

I'd like to see them get some more help at OLB but the reality is that this season is going to be about what TT and the offense can do.

 

I'm on board with both of these posts. The Bills -- specifically TT -- need to show they can win games in the 4th Q with their offense.

[BuffaloBaumer]

Bank on no playoffs and if they have a meaningful game in December, consider it to be a successful season. Have a great time on Sunday mornings at the Ralph and hope the Sabres turn the corner this year. Well, that's how I will be getting by....

[hondo in seattle]

A rookie LB sprains his knee 2 months before the season opener and the sky is falling? I don't get it.

 

How big is the difference between rookie Ragland and the next guy up? Big enough to convert every W into a L? Big enough to convert any W into a L? Will RR even miss a game?

 

With or without Ragland, I expect this defense to finish somewhere between #5 and #10. Rex is a competent defensive coach. He has a staff of competent coaches and they have some good talent to work with. Rex modified his scheme since last year, players are communicating more... things will get better.

[BarleyNY]

I see a competitive team, but we're a middleweight. If we're punching our weight we should be competitive, if we're punching down we should win, but we'll be in trouble when we punch up. That puts us .500-ish. Plus or minus how things break. The good news is that we're better than the Jest, at least as good as the Phish and will get the Cheatriots without Brady at least once. 4-5 division wins aren't unrealistic. That would be a huge help.

[Helpmenow]

If number 5 goes down were really screwed.

[dave mcbride]

Rex hasn't fielded a competent D in 6 years. That includes a year in which he took the #1 sack team to #31. What on Earth makes you think he will do it now?

??

 

According to FO's Dvoa, the jets finished as follows:

 

2009 - 1st

2010 - 5th

2011 - 2nd

2012 - 9th

2013 - 12th

2014 - 21st

 

Obviously, there was a decline at the end, but before 2014 the worst they ever ranked was comfortably in the top half of all teams. it's not based non-indicative stats like points allowed-only, which factors out so many important pieces of data that it's not really indicative of anything on its own.

5 years in a row before he got here his defenses stunk.

This is, quite simply, false, and the evidence clearly belies the claim.

[4merper4mer]

??

According to FO's Dvoa, the jets finished as follows:

2009 - 1st

2010 - 5th

2011 - 2nd

2012 - 9th

2013 - 12th

2014 - 21st

Obviously, there was a decline at the end, but before 2014 the worst they ever ranked was comfortably in the top half of all teams. it's not based non-indicative stats like points allowed-only, which factors out so many important pieces of data that it's not really indicative of anything on its own.

 

This is, quite simply, false, and the evidence clearly belies the claim.

At the end of the game which team wins? The DVOA team or the team that gave up less points? Geez.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

??

 

According to FO's Dvoa, the jets finished as follows:

 

2009 - 1st

2010 - 5th

2011 - 2nd

2012 - 9th

2013 - 12th

2014 - 21st

 

Obviously, there was a decline at the end, but before 2014 the worst they ever ranked was comfortably in the top half of all teams. it's not based non-indicative stats like points allowed-only, which factors out so many important pieces of data that it's not really indicative of anything on its own.

 

This is, quite simply, false, and the evidence clearly belies the claim.

 

And in 2014 the jets secondary (6 total INTs in 2014), and just general offense were awful. They basically ate a ton in dead money for that year to set up for a 2015 run with a better QB, some high $$$ free agents (revis, gilchrist, skrine, carpenter, Cromartie), and the lightest schedule in the league.

 

Also gave Rex a lame duck year to play out with a bottom 5 roster in the league. Could be worse... if they had fired him mid year there's a decent chance they get Winston or Mariota (who both look pretty legit). Say what you will about Rex, but he at least had the guys playing for him.

At the end of the game which team wins? The DVOA team or the team that gave up less points? Geez.

 

Well projected success over the course of a year would probably be better suited to DVOA vs. the Points allowed number that doesn't take into account for field position, turnovers, etc.

[Sisyphean Bills]

 

I'm on board with both of these posts. The Bills -- specifically TT -- need to show they can win games in the 4th Q with their offense.

 

Both Ryan and Roman have had success in getting to the playoffs with inexperienced and inconsistent QB play. It'll be big for McCoy to stay healthy and someone else to emerge as a reliable #2 guy in the running game.

[CNY315]

I'm still pretty optimistic. Still a lot of talent on this team. I really don't think there's much that Ragland can do at this point the Spikes can't

[Virgil]

I'm not worried about the D at all honestly. I believe we got better with the loss of Mario. I believe that, while Ragland would be good, he's a rookie and Spikes should be adequate.

 

Most importantly, the team being on the same system for two straight years, players overall just getting better, and overall buy in will make us better.

 

Either way, it can't be worse

[Sisyphean Bills]

 

Either way, it can't be worse

 

Famous last words.

[Bill from NYC]

We see this season the same way.

 

People forget when Rex took over that NYJ defense he inherited a lot of players that seemed over-the-hill.

 

Those were his most successful units as they took him to two AFC title games.

 

He doesn't need a ton of talent in the front 7......just players that buy in and execute. They have a wealth of talent in the secondary, which is where he needs playmakers.

 

One of the critical mistakes the Jets made was exhausting so many key draft resources on their DL when they had a DC/HC who could get similar production from journeymen.

 

I'd like to see them get some more help at OLB but the reality is that this season is going to be about what TT and the offense can do.

Consider this one of the oh so few times that I actually disagree with you, but here goes:

 

Rex took a talented, aggressive defensive defense and turned it into a bunch of weak sisters, undisciplined to boot. They went from 54 to 21 sacks with talented pass rushers. It was a disgrace.

 

Kyle and Aaron Williams are mentioned above. Kyle has taken a huge beating season after season. If he can hold up that would be great, but I wouldn't be 100% shocked if he is cut. I don't predict it mind you, but it wouldn't shock me. As for AW, any production from him would be a bonus. His injuries sounded serious, and frankly dangerous. Now, we lost our top 2 draft picks. When the contact starts, it's going to be an ugly, sad situation. I see no hope for this defense. Zero.

 

I do however think we are on the same page wrt Tyrod. I think he really is the only hope right now for this team, and I hope they lock him into a long term contract. He brings another dimension to the team and I personally think he will even improve. I hope the receivers not named Watson get better, and this includes the perhaps fragile Clay.

 

Once Rex and Whaley are fired, I will feel a lot better about the Bills.

[quinnearlysghost88]

This team was built to win with defense and, as currently staffed, I don't think the defense is up to the challenge. I'd be happy to be proven wrong, though.

why built to win on defense? we have a capable, big-armed QB, a WR that we sacrificed a number one pick for, a dynamic, versatile RB, and finally a consistent O-line from last year to next. oh by the way, we averaged almost 24 points a game, despite losing mccoy for four games, watkins for three games, and tyrod for two.