Using Analytics to find a pass rusher for Bills in draft

[YoloinOhio]

This is really interesting

 

http://buildingtheherd.com/commentary/2016-nfl-draft-analytics/

 

While we all know the difference between a speed and power rusher, we (NFL teams included) still havent been able to identify specific traits that hint at a prospects potential success or failure. As teams are slowly accepting the use of analytics into their team-building processes, weve begun to see some patterns rise among the select few teams that have strict baselines or thresholds for various measurables that a player at a specific position must possess to be considered. The Green Bay Packers wont take a cornerback shorter than 510 and the Seattle Seahawks wont select a corner that has arms shorter than 32. The Seahawks have even began utilizing NIKEs SPARQ metric, which measures an athletes overall athletic ability and quantifies it with a number generated from several athletic tests. SPARQ stands for Speed, Power, Agility, Reaction & Quickness and the team has found some hidden gems in the late rounds of recent drafts using this metric.

Edited April 21, 2016 by YoloinOhio

[ALF]

" With Ryan’s hiring, he looked to install his hybrid defensive scheme routed from 3-4 concepts that was designed to confuse and pressure opposing passers. However, the only players it confused were wearing Bills’ jerseys. "

 

sad but true

[YoloinOhio]

" With Ryans hiring, he looked to install his hybrid defensive scheme routed from 3-4 concepts that was designed to confuse and pressure opposing passers. However, the only players it confused were wearing Bills jerseys. "

 

sad but true

as an aside, I was listening to an interview with Preston Brown on Tuesday night. He seems to believe the defense itself wasn't confusing - it was all the checks before the play. He said that just based on the first two days of meetings, those have been significantly reduced this year. Edited April 21, 2016 by YoloinOhio

[ALF]

The Bills could really use good data like that , I'am impressed

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

This is really interesting

 

http://buildingtheherd.com/commentary/2016-nfl-draft-analytics/

 

As a big SABR guy, I can appreciate the effort to identify players objectively through the use of metrics. The tendency for people unfamiliar with these types of metrics is to "cherry pick", and doing this misses the point. The point is to improve the analysis, which it clearly does, not that it is 100% correct. People developing the metrics also need to be aware that in small sample size (not sure what that is here), a good scout is probably better. Just another tool to use. Thanks for posting.

Edited April 21, 2016 by The Thurmanator

[zonabb]

As a big SABR guy, I can appreciate the effort to identify players objectively through the use of metrics. The tendency for people unfamiliar with these types of metrics is to "cherry pick", and doing this misses the point. The point is to improve the analysis, which it clearly does, not that it is 100% correct. People developing the metrics also need to be aware that in small sample size (not sure what that is here), a good scout is probably better. Just another tool to use. Thanks for posting.

The reason the draft is a crap shoot and it's hard to quantify (predict) a good player is because these measures and models don't take into count the human condition. They don't account for personality, motivation, personal lives, what millions of dollars will do to someone, how hard they work, intelligence (the most underrated measure in the NFL IMO). This is where the quantitative revolution in the NFL isn't really much of a revolution. Other issues that impact player success is how well they fit the new scheme they get drafted into (lots of players get drafted in skill and the idea they can be fit into a system only to fail) and how much opportunity they get, which is interesting because teams treat late round picks as expendable and cut them quickly, rather than allowing them to develop due to the need to win now. Good read earlier this week, can't remember where, on how the draft is just a roulette machine basically and no GM is good at it.

[YoloinOhio]

The reason the draft is a crap shoot and it's hard to quantify (predict) a good player is because these measures and models don't take into count the human condition. They don't account for personality, motivation, personal lives, what millions of dollars will do to someone, how hard they work, intelligence (the most underrated measure in the NFL IMO). This is where the quantitative revolution in the NFL isn't really much of a revolution. Other issues that impact player success is how well they fit the new scheme they get drafted into (lots of players get drafted in skill and the idea they can be fit into a system only to fail) and how much opportunity they get, which is interesting because teams treat late round picks as expendable and cut them quickly, rather than allowing them to develop due to the need to win now. Good read earlier this week, can't remember where, on how the draft is just a roulette machine basically and no GM is good at it.

agree with all that - the metrics are helpful in the whole decision making process but just one part of it. I know that determining the player's "heart" and "love for football" is actually a huge factor for the NFL FO people I know.

[3rdand12]

as an aside, I was listening to an interview with Preston Brown on Tuesday night. He seems to believe the defense itself wasn't confusing - it was all the checks before the play. He said that just based on the first two days of meetings, those have been significantly reduced this year.

I read that too. Nice to hear honestly.

 

Also appreciate the article linked about analytics

[Coach Tuesday]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/sackseer-2016

[3rdand12]

agree with all that - the metrics are helpful in the whole decision making process but just one part of it. I know that determining the player's "heart" and "love for football" is actually a huge factor for the NFL FO people I know.

Metrics and analyzing players already proven. such as Bills for example, who have been successful in the scheme make a decent model to look for in the draft.

Historical analysis is a tool also that come into play.

Hysteresis is the word i believe

[BarleyNY]

Couple of nice reads here. Thanks, Yolo and Coach.

[KOKBILLS]

Good stuff...I heard this guy on Ross Tuckers Podcast...Very interesting...

[Nihilarian]

The reason the draft is a crap shoot and it's hard to quantify (predict) a good player is because these measures and models don't take into count the human condition. They don't account for personality, motivation, personal lives, what millions of dollars will do to someone, how hard they work, intelligence (the most underrated measure in the NFL IMO).

 

This is where the quantitative revolution in the NFL isn't really much of a revolution. Other issues that impact player success is how well they fit the new scheme they get drafted into (lots of players get drafted in skill and the idea they can be fit into a system only to fail) and how much opportunity they get, which is interesting because teams treat late round picks as expendable and cut them quickly, rather than allowing them to develop due to the need to win now. Good read earlier this week, can't remember where, on how the draft is just a roulette machine basically and no GM is good at it.

There are currently some people in the NFL that are very good at evaluating college talent and some are actually excellent at it. First, you need a man at the top of the org chart who can recognize the people who are great at doing their job of scouting players.

 

The Bills have had a few people like that over the years and one was HC Chuck Knox who hired Norm Pollom away from the Rams to join him in Buffalo as director of scouting for Buffalo. From there Pollom advised the hiring of a young man by the name of Bill Polian. Mind you the Bills still found and brought in some great talent under Chuck Know despite the standing GM being a complete moron in Stew Barber.

[Beef Jerky]

as an aside, I was listening to an interview with Preston Brown on Tuesday night. He seems to believe the defense itself wasn't confusing - it was all the checks before the play. He said that just based on the first two days of meetings, those have been significantly reduced this year.

Sucks when your players aren't smart enough to handle football. Mario dirtbag Williams was one of them.

[NoSaint]

Sucks when your players aren't smart enough to handle football. Mario dirtbag Williams was one of them.

You only get so many perfect players and we got athletes over iq a few times recently. No shame in that... they cant all be high motor all world athletes with genius iq

 

It's also an issue when packages and playcalls are late coming in and you don't have time to make reads and communicate effectively

[4merper4mer]

With the 19th pick of the 2016 draft the Buffalo Bills select linebacker Stephen Hawking, Oxford University.

 

Mike Mayock says that advanced analytics determined Hawking is one of the very few people capable of processing Rex's defensive scheme. Still, he has physical limitations which make him a major reach. No other team required this intelligence level at LB so Hawking may have even been available as a UDFA.

[Punching Bag]

It is important for team to understand the intelligence of the players - which are capable of making checks and be effective and which are not and adjust plan accordingly. This is something they could do with heads up display training so not to interfere with NFLPA rules on amount of snaps in practice.

[3rdand12]

With the 19th pick of the 2016 draft the Buffalo Bills select linebacker Stephen Hawking, Oxford University.

 

Mike Mayock says that advanced analytics determined Hawking is one of the very few people capable of processing Rex's defensive scheme. Still, he has physical limitations which make him a major reach. No other team required this intelligence level at LB so Hawking may have even been available as a UDFA.

great post !!

[Buffalo Barbarian]

This is really interesting

 

http://buildingtheherd.com/commentary/2016-nfl-draft-analytics/

 

 

analytics; taking the fun out of scouting and missing players because they don't meet metrics.

The reason the draft is a crap shoot and it's hard to quantify (predict) a good player is because these measures and models don't take into count the human condition. They don't account for personality, motivation, personal lives, what millions of dollars will do to someone, how hard they work, intelligence (the most underrated measure in the NFL IMO). This is where the quantitative revolution in the NFL isn't really much of a revolution. Other issues that impact player success is how well they fit the new scheme they get drafted into (lots of players get drafted in skill and the idea they can be fit into a system only to fail) and how much opportunity they get, which is interesting because teams treat late round picks as expendable and cut them quickly, rather than allowing them to develop due to the need to win now. Good read earlier this week, can't remember where, on how the draft is just a roulette machine basically and no GM is good at it.

 

Bravo!

Sucks when your players aren't smart enough to handle football. Mario dirtbag Williams was one of them.

 

I actually think Mario is an intelligent player, he's just a selfish entitled person who only wants to do what he wants to do.

[Augie]

With the 19th pick of the 2016 draft the Buffalo Bills select linebacker Stephen Hawking, Oxford University.

Mike Mayock says that advanced analytics determined Hawking is one of the very few people capable of processing Rex's defensive scheme. Still, he has physical limitations which make him a major reach. No other team required this intelligence level at LB so Hawking may have even been available as a UDFA.

As long as he can get everyone else into the proper spots, we should be OK - with him in a turbo charged wheel chair. He'll lack a little in lateral mobility, but have great deep speed.

[Beerball]

Two good reads, thanks.

 

Based on draft projections, does the team go OT or LB (inside) in the first and edge rusher in the second?

[Nanker]

There are currently some people in the NFL that are very good at evaluating college talent and some are actually excellent at it. First, you need a man at the top of the org chart who can recognize the people who are great at doing their job of scouting players.

 

The Bills have had a few people like that over the years and one was HC Chuck Knox who hired Norm Pollom away from the Rams to join him in Buffalo as director of scouting for Buffalo. From there Pollom advised the hiring of a young man by the name of Bill Polian. Mind you the Bills still found and brought in some great talent under Chuck Know despite the standing GM being a complete moron in Stew Barber.

Stew Barber was horrible. Horrible, horrible, horrible.

 

With the 19th pick of the 2016 draft the Buffalo Bills select linebacker Stephen Hawking, Oxford University.

 

Mike Mayock says that advanced analytics determined Hawking is one of the very few people capable of processing Rex's defensive scheme. Still, he has physical limitations which make him a major reach. No other team required this intelligence level at LB so Hawking may have even been available as a UDFA.

What's his 40 time? Oh wait, with the whole space-time continuum thing he should be able to cover the entire field simultaneously so perhaps his 40 time is moot. Look forward to hearing him root on his Offensive teammates when he's resting on the sidelines. Should make the highlights on ESPN.

[Captain_Quint]

Interesting stuff. They should take it a few steps further to the genetic level and start splicing genes at inception to create LBs, CBs, and such. They could add in behavioral traits, too, so that these guys quit getting arrested.

[BarleyNY]

I actually think Mario is an intelligent player, he's just a selfish entitled person who only wants to do what he wants to do.

Mario: I need to be rushing the passer, not dropping into coverage.

 

Fans: What a selfish, entitled jerk! He should do what the coaches tell him to do.

 

Sammy: I need the ball thrown to me more.

 

Fans: He's right! Those stupid coaches should get him the ball more!

 

smh

[Coach Tuesday]

Mario: I need to be rushing the passer, not dropping into coverage.

 

Fans: What a selfish, entitled jerk! He should do what the coaches tell him to do.

 

Sammy: I need the ball thrown to me more.

 

Fans: He's right! Those stupid coaches should get him the ball more!

 

smh

 

Sammy didn't dog it. It's that simple dude.

[4merper4mer]

Mario: I need to be rushing the passer, not dropping into coverage.

Fans: What a selfish, entitled jerk! He should do what the coaches tell him to do.

Sammy: I need the ball thrown to me more.

Fans: He's right! Those stupid coaches should get him the ball more!

smh

Fans are fans. If Rex left and Mario stayed they would all blame Rex. They want hope which is fine. If you blame Mario you increase hope and can even imagine that Rex is somehow competent.

[John from Riverside]

Mario: I need to be rushing the passer, not dropping into coverage.

 

Fans: What a selfish, entitled jerk! He should do what the coaches tell him to do.

 

Sammy: I need the ball thrown to me more.

 

Fans: He's right! Those stupid coaches should get him the ball more!

 

smh

Show me a game where Sammy didnt half ass it

 

You can plainly see Mario half assing it

[Webster Guy]

Show me a game where Sammy didnt half ass it

 

You can plainly see Mario half assing it

 

Plus not only was Sammy correct, Mario was wrong. It IS necessary to drop back into passing lanes as a DE when one or both of these things are happening:

 

1. You are consistently getting handled by a right tackle and putting zero pressure on the qb. When your DC sees this, he's going to run zone blitzes to help you and the TEAM get pressure on the qb or at least disrupt timing. This is what guys like Rex, Pettine and Dick LeBeau do very well when they're calling a game. All DE's are asked to do this intermittently in the 3-4's as far as I can tell. For the record, Mario didn't get asked to drop that often, and it wasn't like he was getting consistent pressure on the qb this last season anyway.

 

2. The qb you're playing against (Brady, Eli, etc) is doing a three step drop and gunning the ball for quick passes, holding it less than 2.5 seconds every time, which means no matter HOW good you are at rushing the passer, you couldn't get to him even if you were unblocked. In that case, your best use is dropping back into a passing lane and disrupting the timing of the qb with your 6 foot 6 wingspan.

 

If you don't think dropping DE's once in awhile is a good idea, you don't understand the game. Its proven, and it works against guys like Brady as it did in the second game when we played great defense, good enough to win in their house if the offense would have converted a few more points.

[Beerball]

Fans are fans. If Rex left and Mario stayed they would all blame Rex. They want hope which is fine. If you blame Mario you increase hope and can even imagine that Rex is somehow competent.

I'm not there yet.

[4merper4mer]

I'm not there yet.

 

 

Start hating Mario even more. Come to the board and call him all sorts of names. Make fun of his engagement ring fiasco. Before long you may, despite years of evidence to the contrary, envision Rex capable of tying his own shoes.....or at least connecting the velcro.

[BarleyNY]

Sammy didn't dog it. It's that simple dude.

If Sammy didn't get his targets would he have dogged it? We don't know, but that's the big difference between the two situations. The coaches gave one of those guys what they wanted after they bitched to the media, but not the other. For the record I thought both were right in what they said, but wrong by taking it out of the locker room. And Mario sure as hell shouldn't have dogged it, but I'm not going to sit here and assume Sammy would have reacted better or worse if he didn't get what he wanted.

Edited April 25, 2016 by BarleyNY

[Chandler#81]

Stew Barber was horrible. Horrible, horrible, horrible.

 

 

Over rated OT as well.

 

Good stuff here, folks!

[iinii]

all have a direct correlation to the production, or potential of an edge rusher, while the 40-yard dash is essentially meaningless.

 

The quote above is from the aforementioned link and is not a new idea. I think it was Ditka who summed it up rather well when he said, "I don't care how fast he is. I want to know how fast can he get to the football".

[BADOLBILZ]

The reason the draft is a crap shoot and it's hard to quantify (predict) a good player is because these measures and models don't take into count the human condition. They don't account for personality, motivation, personal lives, what millions of dollars will do to someone, how hard they work, intelligence (the most underrated measure in the NFL IMO). This is where the quantitative revolution in the NFL isn't really much of a revolution. Other issues that impact player success is how well they fit the new scheme they get drafted into (lots of players get drafted in skill and the idea they can be fit into a system only to fail) and how much opportunity they get, which is interesting because teams treat late round picks as expendable and cut them quickly, rather than allowing them to develop due to the need to win now. Good read earlier this week, can't remember where, on how the draft is just a roulette machine basically and no GM is good at it.

 

Mapping out the human brain to answer a lot of those potential character questions is just a matter of time. When you are in management long enough you learn that there aren't really billions of unique personalities.

[rquinn619]

 

Mapping out the human brain to answer a lot of those potential character questions is just a matter of time. When you are in management long enough you learn that there aren't really billions of unique personalities.

 

all have a direct correlation to the production, or potential of an edge rusher, while the 40-yard dash is essentially meaningless.

 

The quote above is from the aforementioned link and is not a new idea. I think it was Ditka who summed it up rather well when he said, "I don't care how fast he is. I want to know how fast can he get to the football".

I didn't mean to say that as I was making some bold statement and I didn't intend for the article to say "only draft these players." if it came off that way I apologize. With the new information available and the "analytics wave" I thought it'd be an interesting tool to look at considering the amount of players that had success vs. those that didn't.

 

This isn't to say that tape/character/effort, etc. doesn't matter, but more as a supplement to film study to sort of confirm what your eyes see. . There will always be outliers, but I don't think it's a coincidence that the best pass rushers based on sack totals are generally fantastic athletes.