Mike Freeman of CBS Almost Guaranteeing Alex Smith Landing in Buffalo

[Fadingpain]

Here is a really good analysis as to why he will probably end up getting cut

 

http://www.ninersnat...olin-kaepernick

 

An interesting article. This does NOT demonstrate to me, though, that he will end up being cut.

 

That will boil down to what the 49ers think they can get for him in a trade, and if that returned value to the 49ers is worth $1 million to extend him past the new league year in March.

 

So in a way, San Fran has the ability to buy a 3rd round draft pick for $1 million, if that is what Smith will fetch on the open market.

 

They may well consider that a good deal. Who knows.

 

The funny (or perhaps sad) part is the comments below that article.

 

I read the first 40 or so comments. No mention of the Bills was made in regard to "QB needy teams" who might want to trade for Smith.

 

Around the country, the Bills are currently worse than irrelevant. We are borderline non-existent.

Edited January 2, 2013 by Stopthepain

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I don't fall for that analysis at all. I'm sure that Harbaugh loves Kap, simply by his actions of playing him. But I would bet anything that Harbaugh doesn't know himself if Kap will be a solid full time starter and franchise QB. Back-up QB for a team that has hopes of winning a SB is a very important roster spot. The 9ers are paying Kap absolute peanuts. If I were them, I would look at it not in terms of whether Smith was worth 7.5 mil, but rather in terms of Kap and Smith together cost us 8.5 mil or whatever, which is very, very low for the QB position. I see little reason to cut him at all, and I see them holding out for a pretty good trade.

 

Good points.

 

One other variable might be what other veteran QBs are gonna be on the free agent market.

 

One thing that works in the Niners favor is that free agency starts on March 12th this year.

 

Alex's roster bonus isn't payable till April 1st.

 

Admittedly that might not mean much but it might.

[bschmoove]

I'd be fine with Alex Smith on a 2 year deal to keep the seat warm for whatever QB we take in Rd 2 (after getting the best LB in RD1)

Agreed.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

One way or the other he won't be a 9er next year. They tried getting manning in the offseason and only went back to smith after that fell thru. This season he was benched. They obviously don't think he's the answer and I'm sure he's sick of them. Bridges burned, time to move on.

 

Keep in mind that it's the club's option so he might not have a say.

 

Also, Alex signed his extension after the failed play for Manning and he knew Kaepernick was drafted in the high 2nd round for a reason.

 

I'm not sure there's a ton of bitterness on Alex's part. Perhaps some. Perhaps a little frustration. But maybe not enough to make him demand a release or a trade.

[The Wiz]

You oughta read the thread before positing a question that has been asked and answered a few times now.

 

Going back one page should do.

You should too. I replied to stopthepain after he posted his response to my comment about the speculation.

Edited January 2, 2013 by The Wiz

[truth on hold]

 

 

Keep in mind that it's the club's option so he might not have a say.

 

Also, Alex signed his extension after the failed play for Manning and he knew Kaepernick was drafted in the high 2nd round for a reason.

 

I'm not sure there's a ton of bitterness on Alex's part. Perhaps some. Perhaps a little frustration. But maybe not enough to make him demand a release or a trade.

There is. He was quite vocal in the press after getting benched. I agree with the media consensus on this, almost no chance he's a 9er next year, both parties are done with each other

Edited January 2, 2013 by Joe_the_6_pack

[San Jose Bills Fan]

You should too. I replied to stopthepain after he posted his response to my comment about the speculation.

 

Yes, I cited stopthepain's response to you. I was linking your comments for the sake of the discussion.

 

But I was admonishing Code Monkey, not you.

 

There is. He was quite vocal in the press after getting benched. I agree with the media consensus on this, almost no chance he's a 9er next year, both parties are done with each other

 

We shall see. There's actually a few layers to this one.

[Haven Moses]

It is a good idea to see what Wiz thinks about him. He played against him several times.

[ACor58]

The funny (or perhaps sad) part is the comments below that article.

 

I read the first 40 or so comments. No mention of the Bills was made in regard to "QB needy teams" who might want to trade for Smith.

 

Around the country, the Bills are currently worse than irrelevant. We are borderline non-existent.

 

You are dead right. People often complain that the Bills don't get a lot of love from ESPN or NBC, but unless you are a fan, there really isn't a whole lot to talk about.

 

I don't fall for that analysis at all. I'm sure that Harbaugh loves Kap, simply by his actions of playing him. But I would bet anything that Harbaugh doesn't know himself if Kap will be a solid full time starter and franchise QB. Back-up QB for a team that has hopes of winning a SB is a very important roster spot. The 9ers are paying Kap absolute peanuts. If I were them, I would look at it not in terms of whether Smith was worth 7.5 mil, but rather in terms of Kap and Smith together cost us 8.5 mil or whatever, which is very, very low for the QB position. I see little reason to cut him at all, and I see them holding out for a pretty good trade.

 

It's possible - but they could also look to the draft and get a QB with similar skills to Kaepernick, to back him up.

[C.Biscuit97]

Personally, I don't think Smith is much better than Fitz and would rather just start a rookie & have Fitz back him up. But maybe the light did just go on late for Smith. If it didn't much to get him here, I could get with it. But they better still draft a QB high.

[seq004]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/21486727/tenpoint-stance-big-names-out-there-but-more-teams-seek-next-tomlin

I'd rather have him then Vick.

[Kelly the Dog]

 

It's possible - but they could also look to the draft and get a QB with similar skills to Kaepernick, to back him up.

That would defeat the entire purpose. You would be entrusting your SB to a 3rd or 4th round rookie QB. That would completely sink you, unless you had Russell Wilson, which you wouldn't. The 49ers are not better with Kap than they are with Smith, they are the same. Harbaugh plays Kap because of his potential to be a dual threat, and to be the franchise guy for 10 years, not because he is appreciatively better than Smith at running that offense.

[peterpan]

Honestly this years QB class is pretty schitty. I See people posting that outside of Luck/RG3 that its just as good as last years, but i dont see it. its way worse than last years.

 

Smith is the best option for wanting to win now.

[kasper13]

mike freeman is one of the most connected nfl reporters there is. you're showing your ignorance.

 

Excuse my ignorance. He has 24k followers on Twitter. He's currently mad at Schefter for some reason. I had never read anything he has written before but OK, he's one of the most connected guys out there. I just read his column with the Alex Smith line. It's all speculation, no hard facts.

[NoSaint]

 

 

Excuse my ignorance. He has 24k followers on Twitter. He's currently mad at Schefter for some reason. I had never read anything he has written before but OK, he's one of the most connected guys out there. I just read his column with the Alex Smith line. It's all speculation, no hard facts.

 

i now preface this cause JW scolds me when i generalize too much but.... Mike Freeman tends to be one of the better in a group of generally underwhelming sports reporters. hes certainly not the best around, and there are good ones out there - but hes not just some schlub on bleacher report either.

[Maybe Someday]

Good points.

 

One other variable might be what other veteran QBs are gonna be on the free agent market.

 

One thing that works in the Niners favor is that free agency starts on March 12th this year.

 

Alex's roster bonus isn't payable till April 1st.

 

Admittedly that might not mean much but it might.

That’s not quite right. Per the article, the bonus is due on March 12, which is the start of the new league year. That is also when the trade period begins. April 1st is when his salary of $7.5 mil becomes fully guaranteed. So if the 49ers want to trade him, they have to pay the $1 mil roster bonus first (or renegotiate the contract to push that date back) and then complete the trade before April 1.

 

From the article:

 

“There are 2 key dates to keep in mind: 1) March 12, 2013 (tentatively based on new league year date, and 2) April 1, 2013. The former date is when Alex Smith is due a $1 million roster bonus. The latter date is when his $7.5 million base salary for 2013 becomes fully guaranteed. Whatever the 49ers elect to do, $1 million of that $7.5 million is already guaranteed separate from the base salary and the earlier March roster bonus.

Now comes the fun part: is it worth it to trade him or cut him?

By trading him, the 49ers would have to either negotiate with Smith to push the $1 million roster bonus back, and allow him to choose a team he would like to go to, or the 49ers would need to take the $1 million roster bonus, pay it, then wait until before April 1^st to trade him. The 49ers could trade him after the April 1^st date, but the base salary will be fully guaranteed at that point.”

[San Jose Bills Fan]

That’s not quite right. Per the article, the bonus is due on March 12, which is the start of the new league year. That is also when the trade period begins. April 1st is when his salary of $7.5 mil becomes fully guaranteed. So if the 49ers want to trade him, they have to pay the $1 mil roster bonus first (or renegotiate the contract to push that date back) and then complete the trade before April 1.

 

From the article:

 

“There are 2 key dates to keep in mind: 1) March 12, 2013 (tentatively based on new league year date, and 2) April 1, 2013. The former date is when Alex Smith is due a $1 million roster bonus. The latter date is when his $7.5 million base salary for 2013 becomes fully guaranteed. Whatever the 49ers elect to do, $1 million of that $7.5 million is already guaranteed separate from the base salary and the earlier March roster bonus.

Now comes the fun part: is it worth it to trade him or cut him?

By trading him, the 49ers would have to either negotiate with Smith to push the $1 million roster bonus back, and allow him to choose a team he would like to go to, or the 49ers would need to take the $1 million roster bonus, pay it, then wait until before April 1^st to trade him. The 49ers could trade him after the April 1^st date, but the base salary will be fully guaranteed at that point.”

 

Thanks.

 

I didn't read the link.

 

Like I said, there's a few layers of complexity to this situation. I don't think that it's quite as easy to read as some do.

[purple haze]

Almost guarantee? Geez. I can 100% guarantee that I have never heard of Mike Freeman until 2 seconds ago. That's what these guys do nowadays to try and make a name for themselves. Almost. 95% done. Sources say with near certainty. Whatever. They always leave an out. If they hit on a guess or two then people start following them. The Bills do not need Alex Smith. They do not need a "caretaker". They do not need a "stopgap". They need to draft a QB early and start him immediately. Half the playoff teams have rookie, 1st or 2nd year QB's starting.

 

Freeman has been at CBSsports website for quite a while. You not hearing about him is on you. That said, he's not the only one who speculated about Smith winding up with the Bills. Ian Rappaport of NFL.com also mentioned that possibility. Check out his WGR interview from this a.m. And there is a good chance the Bills will need a stop gap. Fitz won't be that QB more than likely. He could split loyalties in the locker room if they kept him around. Smith isn't so great, true enough, but he doesn't have Fitz's baggage in Buffalo. Meaning he hasn't stunk it up for the Bills and he has played good enough to help his team to the playoffs. And if they decide a young guy is better the players won't be split like they might with Fitz.

 

I'm sure the Bills will draft a QB, but there is no guarantee that player is ready to play from opening day in spite of our desire as fans for that to be the case. Got to cover all the bases.

Edited January 2, 2013 by purple haze

[dhg]

For the money, rather keep Fitz

[Rob's House]

Taking Alex Smith would be ideal. We've got great RBs & should be pretty good on defense. Smith can efficiently execute the offense, run for the 1st when the play breaks down, & is pretty good in the clutch. Since this is supposedly a weak QB class it seems to me the smart money brings in the proven vet so you can take your project QB of the future & develop him.

 

As far as Smith's play pre-Harbaugh, I'm not concerned. He's learned how to play the position & as long as he's not misused he's not likely to forget how to play. I sucked at wrestling until someone taught me how. I don't still need him around to remember how to do it.

Edited January 2, 2013 by Rob's House

[buffalover4life]

Didn't Nix say yesterday that they were drafting somoen, and probably bringing in a FA also?

The only person having a worse New year then Chan has to be Fitz right now....

 

Fitz maid millions and has a degree from Harvard.. he will be fine even if he loses his job.

[JimKelly4President]

So read this article and halfwaydown this guy makes a bold statement. I personally think Alex smith needs somebody in the coaching staff to actually teach him how to play because he is a Sanchez in waiting

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/21486727/tenpoint-stance-big-names-out-there-but-more-teams-seek-next-tomlin

[Magox]

Smith has shown steady improvement, and his numbers represent that progression. So he meets the threshold of "if you aren't green and growing you're ripe and rotting". Now you can make the case that Harbaugh is partially responsible for that, but bottom line, he's capable of putting up good numbers and from my perspective that counts for something. Another thing that I like about Smith is that he doesn't throw many picks and that would be a welcome addiriton to this team.

[HalftimeAdjustment]

I'd rather have him then Vick.

 

This.

[C.Biscuit97]

Smith has shown steady improvement, and his numbers represent that progression. So he meets the threshold of "if you aren't green and growing you're ripe and rotting". Now you can make the case that Harbaugh is partially responsible for that, but bottom line, he's capable of putting up good numbers and from my perspective that counts for something. Another thing that I like about Smith is that he doesn't throw many picks and that would be a welcome addiriton to this team.

 

He threw 17 tds in 16 games last year while playing with the #1 defense in the NFL. Honestly if we had Smith the last 2 years, our record probably isn't any different.

[Optometric Insight]

I give this 2 more minutes.

 

EDIT: I guess this is why teens don't gamble

Edited January 2, 2013 by Teen Insight

[The Wiz]

In before closing.

 

 

Here you go JimKelly

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/154432-mike-freeman-of-cbs-almost-guaranteeing-alex-smith-landing-in-buffalo/

[mannc]

I don't fall for that analysis at all. I'm sure that Harbaugh loves Kap, simply by his actions of playing him. But I would bet anything that Harbaugh doesn't know himself if Kap will be a solid full time starter and franchise QB. Back-up QB for a team that has hopes of winning a SB is a very important roster spot. The 9ers are paying Kap absolute peanuts. If I were them, I would look at it not in terms of whether Smith was worth 7.5 mil, but rather in terms of Kap and Smith together cost us 8.5 mil or whatever, which is very, very low for the QB position. I see little reason to cut him at all, and I see them holding out for a pretty good trade.

I tend to agree. They will cut him only if (1) there is no viable trade market for him (unlikely) and (2) they decide that $7.5 is too much to pay him to back up Kapernick. As you point out, the amount the 49ers would have committed to the QB position would still be pretty modest, assuming they do not sign Kapernick to an extension. A lot may hinge on how Kapernick plays in this year's playoffs. I can see lots of teams trying to trade for Smith, either as a quality back-up or as a stop-gap starter. I'm having a hard time naming 12 current starting QB's I would rather have than him.

[filthymcnasty08]

Mods a leeeetle slower after the new year.

[PromoTheRobot]

He says "YOU can almost guarantee it!" He doesn't say "I guarantee it." Sneaky.

 

PTR

[rex]

I rarely post here unless I am passed anything of relevancy. With that being said...

 

I can say with certainty that the Bills will be taking a strong look at bringing in Smith, regardless of coaching hire. The reason for the speculation is because the Bills at this point are interested in Smith and are asking potential coaches how effective he can be within the respective coach's system. Smith to Buffalo is a logical move from both sides.

 

As of April 1st the 49ers will be committed to $8.5 million in salary towards Smith ($7.5 salary with $1 million option that must be picked up in March). Unless CK shows "red flag" performance (which constitutes a complete and total meltdown of epic proportions in the playoffs), from what I've been told the 49ers intend to shop Smith. Harbaugh is keen on CK and believes he is the future of the franchise. SF's FO knows it can get immediate value for AS without hindering future QB growth. They are stacked as far as draft picks are concerned, which also gives them some leverage in that they could draft another QB if they trade Smith, trade Smith for more picks, or focus more on trading for missing pieces instead of picks if they so choose. They also know Smith will be an attractive QB on the market 1) from performance based on past 2 seasons, 2) comparatively low price tag for potential long term starter (he's 28), 3) weak FA / Draft pool when it comes to QB's in a year where several teams are desperate for a long term solution. Smith can start immediately and with the perception of a "weak" QB draft class, this allows a team to draft a QB in a later round, focusing on "need areas" in early rounds.

 

Smith's contract right now (if he were to be acquired in a trade) would be considered "lower-tier" money as far as starting QB's, and it gives the Bills FO a 2 year window to draft a QB this year and (potentially) next year as well while Smith plays out his contract. At the end of the 2014 season, the Bills can then leverage 1-2 rookies they've developed, or resign Smith when he's 30 if he proves to be a franchise QB for another 5-7 years. This is a very low-risk move compared to the current situation with Fitzpatrick or forcing them to reach in the draft, and also gives the Bills this years draft and next years to address glaring weaknesses on the defensive side of the ball, as well as WR, with early picks.

 

 

Part of Smith's appeal to Buffalo's FO is his game management and ability to limit mistakes. By comparison, the last two seasons saw Fitzpatrick in 32 games with passer ratings of 79 and 83, 48 touchdowns, 39 INT's, and 10 fumbles with completion %'s of 62 and 60. Over Smith's last 26 games (16 last year, 10 this year, playoffs not included) he has thrown for 30 touchdowns, 10 INT's, and 8 fumbles. His passer rating last year was over 90.7, and through 10 games this year was 104.1 -- at the time he was 3rd in the league behind only Aaron Rodgers and RGIII. His completion % this season was also over 70%. Smith is the first QB since 2003 to take SF to a playoff game, one in which they hung with and ultimately beat a very high powered Saints team. The Bills honestly think this guy can win them some games within their offensive structure - play to the run, manage the game from the QB position, and limit mistakes... while still drafting a QB.

 

I cannot say that this will 100% happen as things can change in a heartbeat, but from what I've been told.... as it stands today... the Bills are very high on Alex Smith. I would not be the least bit surprised if he ends up in Buffalo this offseason.

[Rob's House]

Any idea what they'd want for him? I floated the idea of bundling Fitz w/ a pick or 2 in a trade for Smith earlier but it didn't get much traction. The theory is that he'd give them a veteran b/u who's significantly better than what they can sign off the street, and he'd probably be willing to renegotiate his contract to stay employed. Any thoughts?

Edited January 2, 2013 by Rob's House

[truth on hold]

I rarely post here unless I am passed anything of relevancy. With that being said...

 

I can say with certainty that the Bills will be taking a strong look at bringing in Smith, regardless of coaching hire. The reason for the speculation is because the Bills at this point are interested in Smith and are asking potential coaches how effective he can be within the respective coach's system. Smith to Buffalo is a logical move from both sides.

 

As of April 1st the 49ers will be committed to $8.5 million in salary towards Smith ($7.5 salary with $1 million option that must be picked up in March). Unless CK shows "red flag" performance (which constitutes a complete and total meltdown of epic proportions in the playoffs), from what I've been told the 49ers intend to shop Smith. Harbaugh is keen on CK and believes he is the future of the franchise. SF's FO knows it can get immediate value for AS without hindering future QB growth. They are stacked as far as draft picks are concerned, which also gives them some leverage in that they could draft another QB if they trade Smith, trade Smith for more picks, or focus more on trading for missing pieces instead of picks if they so choose. They also know Smith will be an attractive QB on the market 1) from performance based on past 2 seasons, 2) comparatively low price tag for potential long term starter (he's 28), 3) weak FA / Draft pool when it comes to QB's in a year where several teams are desperate for a long term solution. Smith can start immediately and with the perception of a "weak" QB draft class, this allows a team to draft a QB in a later round, focusing on "need areas" in early rounds.

 

Smith's contract right now (if he were to be acquired in a trade) would be considered "lower-tier" money as far as starting QB's, and it gives the Bills FO a 2 year window to draft a QB this year and (potentially) next year as well while Smith plays out his contract. At the end of the 2014 season, the Bills can then leverage 1-2 rookies they've developed, or resign Smith when he's 30 if he proves to be a franchise QB for another 5-7 years. This is a very low-risk move compared to the current situation with Fitzpatrick or forcing them to reach in the draft, and also gives the Bills this years draft and next years to address glaring weaknesses on the defensive side of the ball, as well as WR, with early picks.

 

 

Part of Smith's appeal to Buffalo's FO is his game management and ability to limit mistakes. By comparison, the last two seasons saw Fitzpatrick in 32 games with passer ratings of 79 and 83, 48 touchdowns, 39 INT's, and 10 fumbles with completion %'s of 62 and 60. Over Smith's last 26 games (16 last year, 10 this year, playoffs not included) he has thrown for 30 touchdowns, 10 INT's, and 8 fumbles. His passer rating last year was over 90.7, and through 10 games this year was 104.1 -- at the time he was 3rd in the league behind only Aaron Rodgers and RGIII. His completion % this season was also over 70%. Smith is the first QB since 2003 to take SF to a playoff game, one in which they hung with and ultimately beat a very high powered Saints team. The Bills honestly think this guy can win them some games within their offensive structure - play to the run, manage the game from the QB position, and limit mistakes... while still drafting a QB.

 

I cannot say that this will 100% happen as things can change in a heartbeat, but from what I've been told.... as it stands today... the Bills are very high on Alex Smith. I would not be the least bit surprised if he ends up in Buffalo this offseason.

Excellent summary. Post more often please!

[Hater]

On KC, I'm thinking they'll shy away from getting someone else's vet QB after ther experience with cassell. Also they have #1 pick and can draft someone.

 

 

The QB's I named are every starter the Chiefs have had since 1990 & there is talk that the Chiefs are interested in Jarvis Jones LB Georgia or moving down out of the Top 10

 

I'd take Geno Smith if I where the Chiefs, I don't think they will especially since they haven't pick a QB in the 1st round since 1983 but that could change.

Edited January 3, 2013 by Shitzy Hater

[Concrete Buffalo Feet]

Even if CK gets injured, Smith comes in and leads the 9er's to the SB victory and earns MVP...? Guarantee?

[K-9]

The QB's I named are every starter the Chiefs have had since 1990 & there is talk that the Chiefs are interested in Jarvis Jones LB Alabama or moving down out of the Top 10

 

I'd take Geno Smith if I where the Chiefs, I don't think they will especially since they haven't pick a QB in the 1st round since 1983 but that could change.

 

Well, when you consider that pick was Todd Blackledge and he was taken BEFORE Kelly and Marino, I'd be a little gun shy about taking a QB in the first round, too.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[San Jose Bills Fan]

7

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Fitz maid millions and has a degree from Harvard.. he will be fine even if he loses his job.

 

Also he married a girl who was an All-American soccer player and also has a Harvard degree.

 

As for Alex Smith I would only say that IF you believe that bringing Fitz back at a lower cost would run the risk of being divisive to the team, then you have to find someone who is more or less equivalent to play a similar role: veteran insurance/mentor for young developmental QB.

[mob16151]

If it came to a trade for Alex smith I'd give up a second for him in a heartbeat.

[BisonMan]

Kevin Kolb went for a 2nd and an established CB. I find it hard to believe Smith, with more proven experience and performance, would warrant anything less than a 1 plus a 3. Alternatively, he could probably be had for a proven offensive line starter and a 1 or 2. Of course, it is widely believed that Arizona overpaid for Kolb but the pool of available starters being what it is, I can't imagine Smith going for any less.