interesting WR scenario posed by a friend

[BillsFanForever19]

6 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

For me, ideally Beane couples pick #28 & our 2025 2nd round pick to either trade for Aiyuk, or move up to get Brian Thomas Jr. Then, if he took our 2025 first round pick to trade back into the 2nd round to grab either Legette or McConkey, that would be nice. We'd have the fastest & most dynamic set of skill players in team history.

 

I have no problem trading a 2nd next year with 28 to get Thomas. But I'm personally not interested in trading our 1st next year for a 2nd this year. 

 

If I'm moving 28, a 1st, and a 2nd next year - it's only in a move up for one of the Top 3 Elite Prospects WR's. In spending 28 and a 2nd next year already for Thomas, the most I'd be willing to give up is the other 2nd and maintaining our 1st in 2025. I'd probably even take 60 and our 2nd next year over giving up our 1st for another 2nd straight up.

[Dr. Who]

I do think the top 3 represent a genuine tier that has very good odds to yield WR1 with high ceilings and relatively safe floors. So, I would understand paying the price to get one, and be excited by the player. OTOH, it will cost a lot and pretty much make impossible addressing reasonable needs. I think, given where the quality is in the draft, you'd want to add OL depth, CB depth, S, DL, RB2, and ideally two WRs.

 

You might create a scenario where you could trade up for Thomas and still make that happen, but it would be difficult. Thomas is not a finished product; you're betting on traits. Right now, he's a one-trick pony, albeit it's quite a pony. I'd certainly be happy to get him, and I don't have the skepticism some bright folks on this board appear to have towards him.

 

After trading DIggs, my preference is to double dip early at receiver. I'm in the group who think that is the best way to maximize the value of Josh Allen, and the best approach to that elusive post-season success. I would not neglect D in the draft, but I still say you prioritize WR. The plan should be to get 2 in the first 45 picks, and the closer to the first 40 the better. 

 

The easiest route is to stay at #28, and trade up from #60. Or trade back from #28 and also move up from #60. I personally don't want Coleman. I could be talked into Franklin, but he's not one of my favorites. I like Mitchell more than most. The tandem I like best is Legette and McConkey. 

[Saint Doug]

7 hours ago, Ya Digg? said:

Giving up a first round pick for a second round pick is NOT a good idea. You’re giving up a first rounder for a guy who is definitively a second round player. Has a team ever given up a first round for a second round?

 

I like the rest of it, but you lost me at the trade (also not completely sold on Aiyuk) 

Yeah, I’m not liking that either. Usually teams give up a pick in the same round, plus a sweetener. For example, for a 2nd, I would give up next year’s 2nd and a 4th or a 5th. 
 

What I would rather do is give up a 4th or 5th (or whatever the value chart says) and our 2024 2nd to move up to the first few picks of the 2nd. Maybe the Giants would do it. 

Edited April 8 by Saint Doug

[billybrew1]

8 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

We'll likely have a large amount of cap space, however, so we will be able to sign good defenders. The idea is to build up the offense for THIS season and take advantage of a generational WR draft. Thomas/Aiyuk and McConkey?!? Sign me up for that. 

KC has always, always, always won with a very good too…. We don’t have at all….

[Green Lightning]

8 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

In the wake of the Diggs trade, a friend had this reaction and came up with the scenario below. Curious to know what people think because it actually seems genuinely plausible to me, and I'd love it:

 

"A bunch of you know, I've been hoping since February that Beane would trade Diggs for a 2nd or 3rd rounder. The fact that he was able to get what should be a high end #2 in 2025 is great.

What Beane did was jettison the 4 receivers that caught the ball at a 63% clip & kept the 3 guys that collectively caught it at an 82% catch rate. Shakir, Cook & Kincaid we're all top 30 in the league in that category [incidentally, Cook was 81.5 percent for 8.2 yards/target]. Even after these 3 guys sign their 2nd contracts, they should all remain good values for most of the remainder of Allen's career.

Here's 4 relatively conservative projections for 2024

                    Targets          Yards      Yards/Target
Kincaid          110                 800             7.3
Shakir             80                800            10
Samuel           90                750             8.3
All RBs            80                650             8.1 

That equates to 3,000 yards on 360 targets. Allen has averaged 36 attempts per game over the past 4 years. 36x17=612 which leaves 252 targets for Wr1, Wr2, Wr5 & Knox. Allen has never thrown over 4,600 yards in his career. If he were to average 7.9 yards per attempt on the remaining 252 attempts, then he would have thrown for 5,000. Just for perspective, Shakir led the league in yards/target last year at 13.6. Aiyuk was 2nd at 12.8 & Diggs was a pedestrian 7.4, unlike 2020 when he was 9.2

For me, ideally Beane couples pick #28 & our 2025 2nd round pick to either trade for Aiyuk, or move up to get Brian Thomas Jr. Then, if he took our 2025 first round pick to trade back into the 2nd round to grab either Legette or McConkey, that would be nice. We'd have the fastest & most dynamic set of skill players in team history.

It sounds like we can easily create North of 60 million in cap space for 2025 & free up a bunch more room in 2026. That's a fantastic kicker to this Diggs trade, because it'll allow us to target multiple pro bowl free agents in the next couple of years.

 

All of these factors combined, will allow us to compete with KC for the next 8 years & we'll be able to view this trade for what it is ... a prelude to a parade!"

Do we like this? Asking for a friend...

[Coach Tuesday]

What’s better - Aiyuk at $30m/year (reportedly what he wants) or A Mitchell on a rookie contract?  As I’ve been saying - Beane should find a way to land TWO of the top 5-6 rookie WRs from this class.

[DallasBillsFan1]

I think McConkey will be gone in 1st round, prior to 28.  Personally I think Jerry Jones wants to pay us back for taking Dalton Kincaid last year and will take McConkey despite needing an OL.

[SoonerBillsFan]

9 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

In the wake of the Diggs trade, a friend had this reaction and came up with the scenario below. Curious to know what people think because it actually seems genuinely plausible to me, and I'd love it:

 

"A bunch of you know, I've been hoping since February that Beane would trade Diggs for a 2nd or 3rd rounder. The fact that he was able to get what should be a high end #2 in 2025 is great.

What Beane did was jettison the 4 receivers that caught the ball at a 63% clip & kept the 3 guys that collectively caught it at an 82% catch rate. Shakir, Cook & Kincaid we're all top 30 in the league in that category [incidentally, Cook was 81.5 percent for 8.2 yards/target]. Even after these 3 guys sign their 2nd contracts, they should all remain good values for most of the remainder of Allen's career.

Here's 4 relatively conservative projections for 2024

                    Targets          Yards      Yards/Target
Kincaid          110                 800             7.3
Shakir             80                800            10
Samuel           90                750             8.3
All RBs            80                650             8.1 

That equates to 3,000 yards on 360 targets. Allen has averaged 36 attempts per game over the past 4 years. 36x17=612 which leaves 252 targets for Wr1, Wr2, Wr5 & Knox. Allen has never thrown over 4,600 yards in his career. If he were to average 7.9 yards per attempt on the remaining 252 attempts, then he would have thrown for 5,000. Just for perspective, Shakir led the league in yards/target last year at 13.6. Aiyuk was 2nd at 12.8 & Diggs was a pedestrian 7.4, unlike 2020 when he was 9.2

For me, ideally Beane couples pick #28 & our 2025 2nd round pick to either trade for Aiyuk, or move up to get Brian Thomas Jr. Then, if he took our 2025 first round pick to trade back into the 2nd round to grab either Legette or McConkey, that would be nice. We'd have the fastest & most dynamic set of skill players in team history.

It sounds like we can easily create North of 60 million in cap space for 2025 & free up a bunch more room in 2026. That's a fantastic kicker to this Diggs trade, because it'll allow us to target multiple pro bowl free agents in the next couple of years.

 

All of these factors combined, will allow us to compete with KC for the next 8 years & we'll be able to view this trade for what it is ... a prelude to a parade!"

I agree those with lower catch rates were dumped.

[ganesh]

9 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Forget about defense. If we are going to win it's on the back of the offense.  How many times do you have to see the elite D fail in the playoffs to know no matter how good they make the D it's not going to matter? McD should be able to make due with what he gets on D.

That is one of the reasons why that D has been dismantled..

[FLFan]

9 hours ago, Watkins101 said:

Remember when Robert Foster had over 500 yards the final 8 games of the season, and everybody here was saying he was gonna be a 1/2? Kinda feels like that with all the hype Shakir is getting. 

Shakir is a much more polished receiver than Foster ever was.  He was essentially a one trick pony.

[FLFan]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

What’s better - Aiyuk at $30m/year (reportedly what he wants) or A Mitchell on a rookie contract?  As I’ve been saying - Beane should find a way to land TWO of the top 5-6 rookie WRs from this class.

No contest.  The Bills should not be looking to trade assets plus significant committed cap for Aiyuk or any other established receiver.  There is a substantial opportunity this year to get younger and better and cheaper at that spot

[BarleyNY]

4 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

How could they not afford him if they trade for him, then redo his contract and extend him and give him a $1 million base salary in year 1 of the deal? It's easily doable. The Bills need roughly $3 mil for draft picks, they have $3+ million available now plus $10+ mil coming free June 1st.  That gives them about $13 million in cap space they could work with.  Obviously they will need some for practice squad and signing players during the season due to injuries, etc but they don't need to worry about that until a week before the league year begins.  At this point it's only the Top 51 players that count toward the cap.

 

And it's not like they couldn't move some money around or potentially cut someone else to free up the space if they wanted to do it.

 

First off the league won’t approve a trade if a player’s contract can’t fit under the cap. So we can’t get him here to rework his deal. It would have to be done in advance and that still won’t work since he’s not taking a pay cut and SF isn’t eating any of his contract. So we can’t trade for Aiyuk now.

 

Could it work post 6/1?  I don’t think the Bills want to wait that long. I doubt SF would want to either.  If they are going to trade him I’m sure that they want it done before the draft. But I think it could theoretically be done on 6/2. We could squeeze his contract under and then extend him and lower his cap hit. A 4 year, $100M extension would put him on a 5 year, $115M contract. That could put his 1st year cap hit at about $6M. That would leave the team about $7M for signing draft picks, the transition to a 53 man roster, the practice squad, replacement players and other in season moves. That wouldn’t be enough. They’d need at least $5M more for that. I’m not sure if they could find that much or not..

 

So trading for him before 6/1 is not possible. Trading for him on or after 6/2 would be very difficult if not impossible. . 

[27yanks]

As I said before, trade out of the 1st round for another 2nd rounder, two thirds. Arizona sitting there with just the right numbers.

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

Or stay at #28 and draft Xavier Legette who will be the best WR in this class.

[dave mcbride]

20 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

Or stay at #28 and draft Xavier Legette who will be the best WR in this class.

Why do you argue that? Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr were more productive, put up better numbers at the combine, and come from a program (that Joe Brady made his bones at) that is now basically Wide Receiver U — LSU.

[Wizard]

Mitchell at 28.

 

If we are into Legette, Franklin, or McKonkey at it's about pick #45, then call.

 

Trading all or most of our draft capital next year seems foolish.

 

I mean no disrespect, but the Bills will not win the Super Bowl next year. Get some young receivers and some good depth/developmental pieces and grow the young talent.

 

If a top 5-7 DE, DT, OT,  CB, or Safety that is between 24-30 years old becomes available next offseason in free agency or trade, then you strike with maybe our #1 or one of our #2's.

 

Otherwise, bulls through the draft.

 

Kansas Ciry had 3 Stars on their team: Mahimes, Kelce, and Jones. They are good everywhere else.

 

We have Allen. Let's get better with the draft. If a star is available, strike in 2025 or 2026 if that is the missing or key piece needed.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mannc]

1 minute ago, Wizard said:

 

 

I mean no disrespect, but the Bills will not win the Super Bowl next year. 

 

 

 

 

 

So we’ve already been eliminated?  Interesting. 

[Turbo44]

19 minutes ago, mannc said:

So we’ve already been eliminated?  Interesting. 

Damn, I guess there’s no reason to watch now? It’s like when KC traded Hill and their Super Bowl chances dissipated. 

[NickelCity]

12 hours ago, Ya Digg? said:

Has a team ever given up a first round for a second round?

 

McDaniels in Denver lol. Drafted a bust CB.

[hjnick]

I do not want to trade for anyone else's headache...

 

Stay at 28 UNLESS you can go up and get one of the big 3 OR  if Brian Thomas drops down to around 20, then go up and get him.

 

IF stay at 28, Xavier Worthy.  Then in the second round, get whatever X receiver you can get...  all the rest of the picks can be defense except for 1 OL

 

We need a field stretcher.  I don't care if he only runs fly patterns all day and doesn't catch a ball, his speed has to be respected and makes problems for the defense which Shakir and the TEs can take advantage of.