Dalton Kincaid’s 1st season highlights

[Motorin']

2 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I like the way Brady started using him later in the year. Early in the year, those OTB check-downs, literally anyone can do that stuff. You play to Kincaid's strengths by using him down the seam and on the Y cross stuff, which is what Brady started doing. So I have super high hopes. Kincaid is a dude. 

 

The way he was used in the second half of the season showed me that he can put up #2 receiver numbers in the coming years. 

 

The question is, how high is the ceiling?

[Beck Water]

10 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

According to @Beck Water, a poster who rarely lies, Kincaid had 46% of his yards after catch.

I would guess that's the best on the team.

 

311/673, #mathforall

 

Of guys with >20 receptions, James Cook was unsurprisingly the best YAC man, which of course, is what you expect from an RB.  89% YAC.

 

Of the receivers, Shakir also had 46% of his YAC, 7.2 Y/R.  Knox was similar to Kincaid in Y/R and had a slightly higher percentage (but only 22 receptions to Kincaid's 73)

[Don Otreply]

31 minutes ago, ganesh said:

He needs to catch the balls more in stride. His YAC after was very limited

It is better stated that his QB needs to be better at hitting him in stride so he can get more YAC…,  that and according to a poster (Beck Water) up thread 46% of his yards were YAC so there is that, 

[Beck Water]

8 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

It is better stated that his QB needs to be better at hitting him in stride so he can get more YAC…,  that and according to a poster (Beck Water) up thread 46% of his yards were YAC so there is that, 

 

I do appreciate the kind words, but I also posted data, so it's more correctly "according to the data".

[Don Otreply]

Just now, Beck Water said:

 

I do appreciate the kind words, but I also posted data, so it's more correctly "according to the data".

True enough, 👍

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

3 hours ago, NewEra said:

Agreed….but he must add some mass.  
 

 @Chandler#81 discusses Kincaid not breaking tackles and I think strength is the main culprit behind his lack of BTK.  He looked to take pounding when he did lower his shoulder in the regular season.  I was worried about injuring and was actively rooting for him to avoid hard contact.  Hopefully an offseason in the weight room will give the kid the strength he needs to break more tackles.  

I don't know about breaking tackles, but so many of the catches I've seen are dump off routes where contact his made at the moment of the catch and he still pushes forward for a few more yards. He especially carved out a niche for blitz beaters, as that became a big part of the gameplan near the end of Dorsey.

 

As a reminder, Gabe Davis was on the blitz beater in the Eagles game. You know the one.

 

Kincaid has things to work on for his game for sure. He can put on some muscle this offseason and work on his blocking technique, but if you look at Zach Ertz's first two years in the league Kincaid's production is right there.

[folz]

4 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Now for the discussion part. It’s not an overly optimistic highlight reel. He was clearly great in college and Beane wanted this dimension for the team. However, for a pass catching TE, he had numerous drops and very rarely broke tackles. His TD production was -in a word, disappointing. But the pure talent was on display for most of the season. With Knox taking a pay cut recently, Dalton is now clearly TE1. But he can and needs to improve. He is a willing blocker though his relatively slight frame doesn’t scare anyone and is more of a ‘get in the way’ type blocker than physical blocker. While he made numerous eye-popping catches, he underwhelmed in contested catches where his size should have been a benefit. He displays deft footing but he doesn’t use this to break tackles when defenders dive at his lower legs. It was obvious by seasons’ end that if a defender was closing in on him, he was going to be tackled -even though there were opportunities to challenge the tackler with changing speed or direction, stiff arming or lowering his shoulder -something Knox is proficient at.

I’m hoping these were discussed with him in his end of season meeting with coaches as aspects he needs to improve on. Bulking up a bit is essential, but also hand fighting, better body control to fend off would-be tacklers near him and more gumption/desire to finish the play in the Endzone. 
Yes, he set team records for catches by a TE and quickly became a starter. But to know the full history of the team, is to know TE has always been an afterthought. I can count on 1 hand our very best TE’s, from Warlick to -well, Knox..

 

The potential is certainly there, but the necessary upgrades to his skills are on him to develop. To me, he’s kinda like a ‘golly gee! This is great playing in the NFL!’ kid. I’d like to see more of a determined approach to his craft to realize his capabilities at this level. He isn’t there yet.

 

What say you?

 

I usually agree with you on a lot of things Chandler, but I think you're being a bit too pessimistic when it comes to Kincaid.

 

First of all, he was just a rookie. I think that we all hope and expect him to progress and get better from his rookie year. Most players take a big leap between year one and year two if they have enough talent to make it in the league...and I think Dalton proved he is a guy that will make it in the NFL.

 

He also had Dorsey as an OC for half the year (where the offense struggled quite a bit) and then had to switch to a new coordinator mid-season. That could have hindered some of his growth/progress.

 

As others have noted, I don't think drops seem to be an issue with him. No one is going to catch every ball. But according to stats, he had 4 drops (on 91 targets/73 receptions) on the year and an 80.2% catch rate. That's actually very good for a rookie and no where near the struggles that say Gabe and Knox have had..

 

I only noted maybe 3-4 contested balls in that video that maybe he could have caught. Don't really see this as a major issue either. Something he can work on, sure, but not a problem by any means at that rate. 

 

The TD total was definitely disappointing, but we'd really have to look at the whole season to see how he was used in the red zone, how many red zone targets did he get, etc. to determine if it is a Dalton-thing or a scheme-thing. Maybe Knox got more red zone plays when healthy due to size and previous high TD totals, etc. I do expect to see that TD total climb in the future, but I almost think that that is more on Joe Brady (scheme) and Josh Allen (trust) than it is on Dalton.

 

BUT, the points I really wanted to make were these:

 

29 of Dalton's 73 receptions went for a first down. That is 40%. Forty percent of his catches went for first downs. That is huge for the team...keeping the chains moving, something we have missed since Beasley left. 

 

311 of his 673 yards came AFTER contact. Yes, almost half of his yards were YAC. And that is with the fact, as others have pointed out, that many of his catches were either short over the middle, screens, or outlet passes---all of which are plays where the defenders (especially over the middle) are very close and ready to make an immediate tackle. They didn't design a lot of plays for Dalton to be streaking down the seam or sideline, where it is easier to run away from a defender and pick up a lot of RAC.

 

And let's compare his rookie year to the rookie year's of some recent great Tight Ends:

 

TE ROOKIE SEASON STATS

Dalton 73 recs. 673 yards. 2 TDs. 80.2% catch rate. 9.2 yards/rec. 29 first downs. 1 fumble.

Gronk 42 recs. 546 yards. 10 TDs. 71.2% catch rate. 13 yards/rec. 30 first downs. 1 fumble.

Kelce 67 recs. 862 yards. 5 TDs. 77% catch rate. 12.9 yards/rec. 46 first downs. 4 fumbles. (Note this was year 2 for Kelce, he sat his entire rookie year.

Kittle 43 recs. 515 yards. 2 TDs. 68.3% catch rate. 12 yards/rec. 24 first downs. 0 fumbles. 

 

Dalton had the most receptions. Only Kelce had more yards (in year two, of course). Dalton had the best catch percentage. Only Gronk, really, had more first downs.

So, the only place where Dalton fell behind is yards/rec. and TDs (well, basically only to Gronk)---and I think both of those things are more dependent on scheme and opportunity than Dalton lacking anything.

 

I think the only reason people may think that Dalton didn't live up to the billing enough (other than his TD totals)  is because of the year that Sam LaPorta had. But LaPorta is the exception to the rule, having had one of the best rookie TE seasons in the history of the NFL. And again, that isn't just skill, but also circumstances, situation, and opportunity. LaPorta had 120 targets compared to Dalton's 91...and Sam played 83% of his team's snaps, while Dalton played 63% of his team's snaps. If you pro-rate Dalton's stats to 120 targets, it would look like this in compariosn.

 

Dalton 96 recs. 887 yards. 3 TDs.

LaPorta 86 recs. 889 yards. 10 TDs.

 

So, again, it is only the TD totals that would separate them.

 

Dalton had an excellent rookie season for a TE and I think we all know there is still a lot of room for growth and development (such as in the blocking department, etc.), but I see no reason why Kincaid can't or won't continue to improve and be a big part of the success of this team. Nothing from his rookie season makes me worry about his not reaching his potential and being an important player for this team for years to come.

[GETTOTHE50]

comparing laporta to kincaid isnt exactly fair.

 

dan campbell was a tight end and ben johnson is a top offensive coordinator. laporta was getting featured no matter what.

 

kincaid had freakin ken dorsey as his oc in the start of his career.

 

 

[Chandler#81]

7 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I say you've taken an overly pessimistic view, in several respects.  

 

He had 670 yards in receptions, which was right around where I expected him to be.  That's a nice total for a rookie, especially for a tight end.  A rookie wideout who starts has an opportunity for some chunk plays that a tight end doesn't get.  So, I'd say his production was pretty good, and I expect it will improve.  

 

Next, I'd say that "he rarely broke tackles" is unfair.   A large number of his catches were essentially dumpoffs over the middle where he was surrounded by defenders.   He's not a big guy who's going to drag those tacklers.   Still, he always goes down going forward, and he gets just about all the yards he can.  He had several plays where he made a move to avoid a tackler and get extra yards, and in particularly he made several to get the first down.    He's not a great open field runner, but he gets ahead in space before he goes down.  

 

Drops.  I agree about that.  He's excellent when he's open, but he isn't so good on contested catches.  In a crowd, he doesn't seem to come down with it as often as he should. 

 

One thing that was apparent was how often Allen's throws were off target.  Some of his drops really were throws where Allen missed the market, and some of his best catches also were on inaccurate throws.  

 

I agree about bulking up.  He looks like he could carry another ten pounds, and then would make him tougher to bring down. 

 

I wouldn't call him a disappointment at all.  However, if he's never better than he was as a rookie, I will be disappointed.  My hope for 2024 is that Brady will have a creative passing attack with Diggs, Samuel, and Shakir attacking all over the field, short and long, and with Kincaid finding plenty of holes as the defenders chase the speed guys.  

You’re certainly entitled to your opinion.

I'm entitled to disagree. He needs to beef up and work on his moves. I took a completely blind look at his rookie performance. Uneven -even though at times he shined. But Thanks, Dad..

4 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

I don't know about breaking tackles, but so many of the catches I've seen are dump off routes where contact his made at the moment of the catch and he still pushes forward for a few more yards. He especially carved out a niche for blitz beaters, as that became a big part of the gameplan near the end of Dorsey.

 

As a reminder, Gabe Davis was on the blitz beater in the Eagles game. You know the one.

 

Kincaid has things to work on for his game for sure. He can put on some muscle this offseason and work on his blocking technique, but if you look at Zach Ertz's first two years in the league Kincaid's production is right there.

This is all I’m saying 🤷‍♂️

Edited March 21 by Chandler#81

[Chandler#81]

5 hours ago, Rigotz said:

 

I really, really hate it when people say stupid things like this.

 

SO, tell us again how they could have waited and still gotten the same production.

 

I recommend the Ignore function. This poster has a permanent residence there

[Fan in Chicago]

5 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

According to @Beck Water, a poster who rarely lies, Kincaid had 46% of his yards after catch.

I would guess that's the best on the team.

Waitaminnutt

 

You are saying @Beck Water sometimes does lie? 🤔

[Beck Water]

25 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

Waitaminnutt

 

You are saying @Beck Water sometimes does lie? 🤔

 

Beautifully, and with a frank, direct expression.

 

Can't think of a time I've lied here, but I have been mistaken at times.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

He’s going to be so good.

[Buffalo716]

He's going to be so good

 

And while he leave he wasn't trucking people like Gronk I felt like he continually fell forward and will use his elusiveness better with time

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

He's going to be so good

 

And while he leave he wasn't trucking people like Gronk I felt like he continually fell forward and will use his elusiveness better with time

 

I noticed he had a number of first downs where he lowered his shoulder and/or used his legs as he fell, to get the first.

 

There was also that heads-up play on the Diggs fumble where he swatted the ball OOB - we took a penalty, but we didn't risk a turnover, smart IMO

Edited March 22 by Beck Water

[Buffalo716]

6 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I noticed he had a number of first downs where he lowered his shoulder and/or used his legs as he fell, to get the first.

 

There was also that heads-up play on the Diggs fumble where he swatted the ball OOB - we took a penalty, but we didn't risk a turnover, smart IMO

I definitely have been enamored with him since Utah

 

Since I've been to a lot of quarterback camps around the country I tend to follow certain quarterbacks that I've seen

 

I've always liked cam rising and his toughness and smarts.. so when he transferred to Utah I started watching more

 

And Dalton instantly pops

 

I think I started jumping around my house when we drafted him lol

[Fan in Chicago]

3 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Beautifully, and with a frank, direct expression.

 

Can't think of a time I've lied here, but I have been mistaken at times.

Is this one of those times? 

[billybrew1]

15 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Now for the discussion part. It’s not an overly optimistic highlight reel. He was clearly great in college and Beane wanted this dimension for the team. However, for a pass catching TE, he had numerous drops and very rarely broke tackles. His TD production was -in a word, disappointing. But the pure talent was on display for most of the season. With Knox taking a pay cut recently, Dalton is now clearly TE1. But he can and needs to improve. He is a willing blocker though his relatively slight frame doesn’t scare anyone and is more of a ‘get in the way’ type blocker than physical blocker. While he made numerous eye-popping catches, he underwhelmed in contested catches where his size should have been a benefit. He displays deft footing but he doesn’t use this to break tackles when defenders dive at his lower legs. It was obvious by seasons’ end that if a defender was closing in on him, he was going to be tackled -even though there were opportunities to challenge the tackler with changing speed or direction, stiff arming or lowering his shoulder -something Knox is proficient at.

I’m hoping these were discussed with him in his end of season meeting with coaches as aspects he needs to improve on. Bulking up a bit is essential, but also hand fighting, better body control to fend off would-be tacklers near him and more gumption/desire to finish the play in the Endzone. 
Yes, he set team records for catches by a TE and quickly became a starter. But to know the full history of the team, is to know TE has always been an afterthought. I can count on 1 hand our very best TE’s, from Warlick to -well, Knox..

 

The potential is certainly there, but the necessary upgrades to his skills are on him to develop. To me, he’s kinda like a ‘golly gee! This is great playing in the NFL!’ kid. I’d like to see more of a determined approach to his craft to realize his capabilities at this level. He isn’t there yet.

 

What say you?

I loved his hands and I think you are being too hard on his drops….

He has very good size and I think he is a tough individual that will improve at all aspects of toughness, blocking, becoming harder to tackle, using size and strength to get open….

what I don’t like about about him is his speed, quickness, and overall athleticism (aside from his hands). I think he has NFL quality in all those phases but he is not elite in any of them. The Bills definitely need a few blue chippers to win a Super Bowl and I fear we missed out again. Looks like another red chipper to go with Groot, Ed and all of the best of Beane’s draft picks. We need home runs and all we ever get are singles, doubles and triples…. I think TJ and Gabe were triples given their draft position. Dawkins was a triple too (maybe an hiomer he is maybe on the line) and perhaps White was a Homer but that was 2017….

The Bills have to have a draft more like the 2017 draft this year…. We need a true blue and two red chippers at least, imho…

 

i really hope I’m wrong about Kincaid.

[Chaos]

17 hours ago, folz said:

That is huge for the team...keeping the chains moving, something we have missed since Beasley left

KIncaid had a fine rookie season, and projects to be a top tier tight end in the future. 
 

However, the "moving the chains problem since Beasely" is a myth, based on statistics, 

In 2021 the Bills had the fifth fewest punts in the NFL (chiefs had least). In 2022 the Bills had the fewest punts in the NFL. In 2023 the Bills had the second fewest punts in the NFL.   The Bills did not have problem moving the chains. 
 

[Fan in Chicago]

7 hours ago, billybrew1 said:

 

The Bills have to have a draft more like the 2017 draft this year…. We need a true blue and two red chippers at least, imho…

 

i really hope I’m wrong about Kincaid.

I am pretty sure you are wrong but this season will show us more. I think he did very well in his rookie season and appears to be a good kid. So I expect him to work on his craft and improve.

Let us temper expectations about his stats though. Presuming we add a blue chip WR in the first round, there will be a lot of good hands for Allen to throw to. On the Chiefs, Kelce is their #1 receiving threat. Kincaid doesn't and should not need to be that for the Bills. WR should be primary and TE for blocking, making lot of first downs and scoring TDs. 

[H2o]

20 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

 

We see from the record, that he had 4 drops on 91 targets (comparison: Knox as rookie 10 drops on 50 targets; Shakir as rookie 2 drops on 20 targets)

He had an 80% catch rate.

 

I don't understand how that gets described as "numerous drops".  If you're catching 80% as a rookie, that's, like, Good.

 

Also from the record, 46% of his yards, were YAC.  So he may be avoiding/breaking more tackles than you think.

This^^^. 

 

Kincaid's drop percentage was lower than Travis Kelce. LaPorta's drop percentage was at 4.2%, slightly better than Dalton. 

 

For the people talking about LaPorta and how he was so much better, he really wasn't outside of his blocking. The difference between the two was the volume of targets and utilization on route concepts. That's it. LaPorta averaged 1 more yard per reception, but we all saw how they kept throwing Kincaid those 3 yd passes that never went anywhere. Then, Kincaid's catch percentage was 9% higher than LaPorta. If Kincaid gets 126 targets like LaPorta did, then he catches 100 passes and puts up 920 yds. The biggest stat that stands out are the TD #'s. LaPorta had 10 TD's where Kincaid only had 2. To me, this again goes back to scheme. We had a lot of guys catch TD passes this year, but none of them had more than 8. One of the big reasons for this? Josh Allen had 15 rushing TD's. A lot of times JA17 gets inside the 10 and just says, "I'll take it from here boys." In all honesty JA probably could have had another 7-10 passing TD's, but chose to run it instead. 

 

Overall, it wasn't a bad season at all for Kincaid. We knew what he was coming out and he is definitely a solid investment. I expect him to be more involved this coming year with Brady drawing up the offense and being able to build even more of a rapport with Josh. 

[Shaw66]

6 minutes ago, H2o said:

This^^^. 

 

Kincaid's drop percentage was lower than Travis Kelce. LaPorta's drop percentage was at 4.2%, slightly better than Dalton. 

 

For the people talking about LaPorta and how he was so much better, he really wasn't outside of his blocking. The difference between the two was the volume of targets and utilization on route concepts. That's it. LaPorta averaged 1 more yard per reception, but we all saw how they kept throwing Kincaid those 3 yd passes that never went anywhere. Then, Kincaid's catch percentage was 9% higher than LaPorta. If Kincaid gets 126 targets like LaPorta did, then he catches 100 passes and puts up 920 yds. The biggest stat that stands out are the TD #'s. LaPorta had 10 TD's where Kincaid only had 2. To me, this again goes back to scheme. We had a lot of guys catch TD passes this year, but none of them had more than 8. One of the big reasons for this? Josh Allen had 15 rushing TD's. A lot of times JA17 gets inside the 10 and just says, "I'll take it from here boys." In all honesty JA probably could have had another 7-10 passing TD's, but chose to run it instead. 

 

Overall, it wasn't a bad season at all for Kincaid. We knew what he was coming out and he is definitely a solid investment. I expect him to be more involved this coming year with Brady drawing up the offense and being able to build even more of a rapport with Josh. 

And the TDs are of little concern to me, at least not yet.  TDs don't happen all that often, relative to receptions, so a statistical variation in TDs per reception is not uncommon.   Davis caught four TDs in one game.   That didn't mean Davis was great; it just meant in that game, against that defensive scheme, Allen was finding Davis.  

 

Plus, as I said earlier, I think red zone scoring has a lot to do with how well the QB and receiver communicate.  Diggs has had a lot of red zone success, and Beasley did, too, and both were based on their communication with Allen.  The spaces are tight, the timing is critical, and the receiver's understanding of how the defense works also is critical.   I think we'll see Kincaid improve in that area.  Kelce went 5-5-4 TDs in his first three years playing.   When he got older, and when Mahomes arrived, is when his TD production went up.  

[Beck Water]

4 hours ago, Chaos said:

KIncaid had a fine rookie season, and projects to be a top tier tight end in the future. 
 

However, the "moving the chains problem since Beasely" is a myth, based on statistics, 

In 2021 the Bills had the fifth fewest punts in the NFL (chiefs had least). In 2022 the Bills had the fewest punts in the NFL. In 2023 the Bills had the second fewest punts in the NFL.   The Bills did not have problem moving the chains. 
 

 

So by many metrics, the Buffalo Bills have had an excellent offense.  Rank 3, 2, and 6 on points for 21, 22, and 23 respectively.

 

But looking at "who had the fewest punts?" is probably NOT a sufficient metric for looking at whether the Bills have a "chain moving" problem, especially when the goal the Bills are seeking isn't "top offense" but "Championship"

 

Other metrics that should be considered:

-# of FG vs TD (eg are drives stalling out due to failure to get a 1D?)

-# of turnovers

 

In 2023, of the top-10 scoring teams, the Bills actually attempted the 3rd fewest FG (49ers and Lions had fewer)

So that's not a factor.

 

However, of the top-10 scoring teams, the Bills had the 2nd most turnovers - 28. (That's #7 for turnovers, overall)

Five of those offenses had 9 or 10 or more fewer turnovers.  Only the #10 scoring offense (the Browns) had more.

Three of the offenses with fewer turnovers (Cowboys, 49ers, and Ravens) ranked above the Bills for scoring.

 

You might say "that's a ball security/decision making problem, not a chain-moving problem", but I would argue that it's related: some of the 'bad decisions' or putting the ball at risk that result in turnovers, result from getting into 3rd and long and trying to force the ball, which is a form of chain-moving problem.

 

The Bills had the same turnovers in 2022 when we had the #2 scoring offense, but in 2021, when Beasley was still here, we had 22 turnovers and were 17th in the league, and in 2020 when the Bills had the Diggs, Brown, Beasley trio, we also had 22 turnovers and Josh had 10 INT vs. 18 INT in 2023.  

 

So I do think there might be something to the notion that "having a reliable outlet he trusts to move the chains" has been a gap.

 

TL;DR Number of punts alone is not a good metric for whether or not the Bills have a chain-moving problem.

 

 

 

[Motorin']

4 hours ago, H2o said:

This^^^. 

 

Kincaid's drop percentage was lower than Travis Kelce. LaPorta's drop percentage was at 4.2%, slightly better than Dalton. 

 

For the people talking about LaPorta and how he was so much better, he really wasn't outside of his blocking. The difference between the two was the volume of targets and utilization on route concepts. That's it. LaPorta averaged 1 more yard per reception, but we all saw how they kept throwing Kincaid those 3 yd passes that never went anywhere. Then, Kincaid's catch percentage was 9% higher than LaPorta. If Kincaid gets 126 targets like LaPorta did, then he catches 100 passes and puts up 920 yds. The biggest stat that stands out are the TD #'s. LaPorta had 10 TD's where Kincaid only had 2. To me, this again goes back to scheme. We had a lot of guys catch TD passes this year, but none of them had more than 8. One of the big reasons for this? Josh Allen had 15 rushing TD's. A lot of times JA17 gets inside the 10 and just says, "I'll take it from here boys." In all honesty JA probably could have had another 7-10 passing TD's, but chose to run it instead. 

 

Overall, it wasn't a bad season at all for Kincaid. We knew what he was coming out and he is definitely a solid investment. I expect him to be more involved this coming year with Brady drawing up the offense and being able to build even more of a rapport with Josh. 

 

I think the reason the Bills chose to run in the red zone so much last season was based on it being higher percentage. 

 

They don't really have a red zone receiving TD machine. And that's exactly what I think Brian Thomas Jr. is. 

 

I hope Kincaid significant increases his TD's this season. Would love to see him in the 6-8 range. Anything more than that and it's all gravy.

 

But I also think the Bills need a red zone monster. I'd support a trade up into the low 20's for Thomas Jr. I think he's really the vertical deep threat and Red Zone TD machine the Bills need to add to their chain moving receivers of Kincaid, Samuels and Shakir... 

[Beck Water]

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

And the TDs are of little concern to me, at least not yet.  TDs don't happen all that often, relative to receptions, so a statistical variation in TDs per reception is not uncommon.   Davis caught four TDs in one game.   That didn't mean Davis was great; it just meant in that game, against that defensive scheme, Allen was finding Davis.  

 

Plus, as I said earlier, I think red zone scoring has a lot to do with how well the QB and receiver communicate.  Diggs has had a lot of red zone success, and Beasley did, too, and both were based on their communication with Allen.  The spaces are tight, the timing is critical, and the receiver's understanding of how the defense works also is critical.   I think we'll see Kincaid improve in that area.  Kelce went 5-5-4 TDs in his first three years playing.   When he got older, and when Mahomes arrived, is when his TD production went up.  

 

I'd just like to point out that tactically, part of "red zone success" is creating realistic uncertainty in the mind of the opposing defense: "will this be a run play or a pass play?"

 

There was a point in 2022 where the Bills dipped to one of the lowest success % in the league in the red zone, and several people who break down plays pointed out "they need to run enough for a run play to be a credible threat there".  The Bills started running more, and rZ success % improved.

 

Why is that relevant to Kincaid's red-zone use?  Well, because of he isn't yet technically sound as an in-line or 2nd level run  blocker (he can block effectively downfield when it's more like "momentarily get in the way"), defenses are more inclined to accept a run play as a credible threat when the TE is Knox or when there's a fullback (Gilliam) on the field.  And while Kincaid does run good routes, they aren't yet as polished and precise as some of the WR.

 

If Kincaid levels up his blocking a bit and also polishes up his route running, I'm sure he'll get more RZ targets.

[DC Greg]

On 3/21/2024 at 10:18 AM, Shaw66 said:

I say you've taken an overly pessimistic view, in several respects.  

 

He had 670 yards in receptions, which was right around where I expected him to be.  That's a nice total for a rookie, especially for a tight end.  A rookie wideout who starts has an opportunity for some chunk plays that a tight end doesn't get.  So, I'd say his production was pretty good, and I expect it will improve.  

 

Next, I'd say that "he rarely broke tackles" is unfair.   A large number of his catches were essentially dumpoffs over the middle where he was surrounded by defenders.   He's not a big guy who's going to drag those tacklers.   Still, he always goes down going forward, and he gets just about all the yards he can.  He had several plays where he made a move to avoid a tackler and get extra yards, and in particularly he made several to get the first down.    He's not a great open field runner, but he gets ahead in space before he goes down.  

 

Drops.  I agree about that.  He's excellent when he's open, but he isn't so good on contested catches.  In a crowd, he doesn't seem to come down with it as often as he should. 

 

One thing that was apparent was how often Allen's throws were off target.  Some of his drops really were throws where Allen missed the market, and some of his best catches also were on inaccurate throws.  

 

I agree about bulking up.  He looks like he could carry another ten pounds, and then would make him tougher to bring down. 

 

I wouldn't call him a disappointment at all.  However, if he's never better than he was as a rookie, I will be disappointed.  My hope for 2024 is that Brady will have a creative passing attack with Diggs, Samuel, and Shakir attacking all over the field, short and long, and with Kincaid finding plenty of holes as the defenders chase the speed guys.  

 

Agree with this. Kincaid made the most of his somewhat limited opportunities in year 1. I thought they should have been designing more creative downfield routes for him. They used him too much as a simple check down option.

 

In the playoff game, we FINALLY saw him running a seam route up the middle for a big TD. That was the first time I saw that route all year, and he crushed defenses with it at Utah. I hope they open it up a bit more for him in year 2.

[Chaos]

9 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

So by many metrics, the Buffalo Bills have had an excellent offense.  Rank 3, 2, and 6 on points for 21, 22, and 23 respectively.

 

But looking at "who had the fewest punts?" is probably NOT a sufficient metric for looking at whether the Bills have a "chain moving" problem, especially when the goal the Bills are seeking isn't "top offense" but "Championship"

 

Other metrics that should be considered:

-# of FG vs TD (eg are drives stalling out due to failure to get a 1D?)

-# of turnovers

 

In 2023, of the top-10 scoring teams, the Bills actually attempted the 3rd fewest FG (49ers and Lions had fewer)

So that's not a factor.

 

However, of the top-10 scoring teams, the Bills had the 2nd most turnovers - 28. (That's #7 for turnovers, overall)

Five of those offenses had 9 or 10 or more fewer turnovers.  Only the #10 scoring offense (the Browns) had more.

Three of the offenses with fewer turnovers (Cowboys, 49ers, and Ravens) ranked above the Bills for scoring.

 

You might say "that's a ball security/decision making problem, not a chain-moving problem", but I would argue that it's related: some of the 'bad decisions' or putting the ball at risk that result in turnovers, result from getting into 3rd and long and trying to force the ball, which is a form of chain-moving problem.

 

The Bills had the same turnovers in 2022 when we had the #2 scoring offense, but in 2021, when Beasley was still here, we had 22 turnovers and were 17th in the league, and in 2020 when the Bills had the Diggs, Brown, Beasley trio, we also had 22 turnovers and Josh had 10 INT vs. 18 INT in 2023.  

 

So I do think there might be something to the notion that "having a reliable outlet he trusts to move the chains" has been a gap.

 

TL;DR Number of punts alone is not a good metric for whether or not the Bills have a chain-moving problem.

 

 

 

Disagree.  Also, fundamentally none of the Bills playoff problems are the fault of the offensive talent. 

Edited March 23 by Chaos

[Maynard]

Just wait until next season. Dude is an absolute stud. Still can’t believe we got him.

[BBFL]

And thus, the boy was given the throne… All hail King Cade!

[Beast]

He got better as the year progressed and he finished the season decently, especially considering Diggs’ disappearing act.

[warrior9]

On 3/21/2024 at 8:54 AM, Coldfronts said:

He needs to muscle up a bit and he will get a lot more YAC. This guy would have been a monster back in the steroid days of football

You are insane if you think these guys aren't on PEDs. There are many that are WAY better than they were back in the day AND most untrackable in blood/ test levels. Don't ask me how I know because I will not explain. 

[Coldfronts]

1 hour ago, warrior9 said:

You are insane if you think these guys aren't on PEDs. There are many that are WAY better than they were back in the day AND most untrackable in blood/ test levels. Don't ask me how I know because I will not explain. 

It's a cat and mouse game.  New methods of cheating the system lead to new methods of testing which lead to new methods for cheating which lead to new methods of testing…and on and on.  In the end they catch up to it.

[warrior9]

4 hours ago, Coldfronts said:

It's a cat and mouse game.  New methods of cheating the system lead to new methods of testing which lead to new methods for cheating which lead to new methods of testing…and on and on.  In the end they catch up to it.

This doesn’t mean it’s not happening. There is NO WAY Nick Bosa has knee surgery, puts on 30 pounds, while he says he stopped eating carbs.. that doesn’t happen. Do you think the NFL is ever testing Nick Bosa or TJ Watt? TJ Watt came back from a fully torn pec in 6 weeks. That’s not normal and can’t be done “naturally”

[ColoradoBills]

I see Dalton and Josh teaming up for years to come.  Dalton's 2nd season will be a big one for him.

As others have said, Brady will get him more targets (and more primary targets) down the seam.

He is a driven player from all reports, so I expect he will be working on a lot of things to improve his overall game.

 

Lots of his drops/incompletions were tough catches and he will adjust to Josh's throwing style more and more.

Dalton needs a lot more targets in the red zone IMO.  That would bring up his TD totals.