Cover 1 Josh's INTs

[Scott7975]

 

Cover 1 basically going over all of Josh's ints.

[Maine-iac]

It's the second and 10 throws 15 yards down the field into coverage with guys open underneath that I wish would change.  Until you make them pay taking the underneath stuff they're never going to come out of 2 high looks.  There's so much All 22 film out there now and from several different sources breaking down the film and they all show pretty much the same thing.  There's also something to be said for drops and fumbles ending drives that might have ended in Allen TD's kind of skewing the explosive plays that are largely what Josh is missing at this point.

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

It's the second and 10 throws 15 yards down the field into coverage with guys open underneath that I wish would change.  Until you make them pay taking the underneath stuff they're never going to come out of 2 high looks.  There's so much All 22 film out there now and from several different sources breaking down the film and they all show pretty much the same thing.  There's also something to be said for drops and fumbles ending drives that might have ended in Allen TD's kind of skewing the explosive plays that are largely what Josh is missing at this point.

 

I dont think they are going to come out of their looks at all.  They have the deep ball covered and other D is having a fairly easy job covering the underneath pretty tight.  I know, I know, that guy on the screenshot is open but people have a hard time understanding how fast the defender is actually going to get there.  McD's defense has made a living off of swarming to the ball.  Not so much this year as the tackling has been piss poor, but he has.

 

Yes, the underneath stuff needs to happen but they give that stuff up for a reason.  No team is going to consistently move the ball 80 yards 3-5 yards at a time.  Too much potential for mistakes.  Especially with the slow ass people we got that can't really get much separation to begin with.  Josh running the ball or even us picking up 7-8 yards a carry consistently might get teams out of it but right now I don't think thats going to happen.

[Mikie2times]

Denver would have let us run the ball all game. It was like a game of chicken. Teams know how to beat us. Just play coverage. We will self destruct if you make us drive the field. We will eventually go away from the run or underneath stuff. We might string together a drive, but we will go away from it. Brady needs to show this isn’t the case. 

Edited November 17, 2023 by Mikie2times

[sven233]

You want to see Allen's INT count go down?  Let him run more.  Get back to the designed runs (5 a game would be enough) and tell him he has the green light to scramble anytime he sees an opening. 

 

Right now, teams are not respecting his running ability anymore because they see that he isn't doing it nearly the way he used to.  And because of this, teams feel real comfortable sinking into coverage and just waiting for him to make a mistake.  He may as well be any statue QB you want to name back there.  Sure, he moves out of the pocket to buy time, but he isn't using his legs as a true weapon and teams know this.  There are several times this season where you watch the tape and see a chance for him on a 3rd and medium to just take off and pick it up with his legs, yet it VERY rarely happens anymore and teams again know this.

 

All you have to do is put that fear back into defenses that at any moment he'll burn you for 40 yards or a critical first down.  They will start having to creep back up and that will in turn loosen up the coverage down the field and create more openings and opportunities.  I mean, most of this season, teams are not only not respecting his legs or ability to burn them running, but they are actually baiting him into mistakes because of it.  They'll initially squat on the underneath stuff, particularly the shallow routes to the sidelines and then as soon as he starts moving out of the pocket, since they know he isn't going to take off and run, they fall off those shallow targets and sink back waiting for him to try and hit the honey hole.  He's made this throw so many times in years past and he's amazing at this.  But who else knows this?  The defenses we play, of course.  So, teams will constantly continue to do this until we make them pay for it either by letting Allen take off or create their own counters by changing up the underneath routes.  We run this concept so much, teams can see it coming a mile away.  This, along with our mesh concept, have become way too easy for defenses to figure out what we're doing at the snap and then easily take it away.  Here's hoping Brady fires these concepts to the moon for a while and gets away from the predictability they come with and just let Allen loose.  I'm telling you, while the INTs may not completely go away, they will be dramatically reduced by letting Allen use all of his physical gifts.

[Mikie2times]

40 minutes ago, sven233 said:

You want to see Allen's INT count go down?  Let him run more.  Get back to the designed runs (5 a game would be enough) and tell him he has the green light to scramble anytime he sees an opening. 

 

Right now, teams are not respecting his running ability anymore because they see that he isn't doing it nearly the way he used to.  And because of this, teams feel real comfortable sinking into coverage and just waiting for him to make a mistake.  He may as well be any statue QB you want to name back there.  Sure, he moves out of the pocket to buy time, but he isn't using his legs as a true weapon and teams know this.  There are several times this season where you watch the tape and see a chance for him on a 3rd and medium to just take off and pick it up with his legs, yet it VERY rarely happens anymore and teams again know this.

 

All you have to do is put that fear back into defenses that at any moment he'll burn you for 40 yards or a critical first down.  They will start having to creep back up and that will in turn loosen up the coverage down the field and create more openings and opportunities.  I mean, most of this season, teams are not only not respecting his legs or ability to burn them running, but they are actually baiting him into mistakes because of it.  They'll initially squat on the underneath stuff, particularly the shallow routes to the sidelines and then as soon as he starts moving out of the pocket, since they know he isn't going to take off and run, they fall off those shallow targets and sink back waiting for him to try and hit the honey hole.  He's made this throw so many times in years past and he's amazing at this.  But who else knows this?  The defenses we play, of course.  So, teams will constantly continue to do this until we make them pay for it either by letting Allen take off or create their own counters by changing up the underneath routes.  We run this concept so much, teams can see it coming a mile away.  This, along with our mesh concept, have become way too easy for defenses to figure out what we're doing at the snap and then easily take it away.  Here's hoping Brady fires these concepts to the moon for a while and gets away from the predictability they come with and just let Allen loose.  I'm telling you, while the INTs may not completely go away, they will be dramatically reduced by letting Allen use all of his physical gifts.

Teams have been sinking into coverage since the half way point last year. Also hate to burst peoples bubble, but the running lanes aren’t there like they once were. Teams are rushing Josh with a ton of contain and he’s always got a spy. They don’t risk blitzes. How often do we still see him break toward the sideline and throw a rope? It never happens anymore. Teams won’t let him get to that spot. It was all day his first few seasons. This isn’t just about Josh being less aggressive running. It’s about how teams are defending him. All they want to do is make him a normal QB. Force him to drive the field. Take away his legs. Take away the deep shot. It’s been going on since the half way point last year.

Edited November 17, 2023 by Mikie2times

[Governor]

I’m not sure Josh has any legs left. That might be what we’re missing here. Last week he had an easy run for a 1st and just whipped it down the field incomplete instead. He only needed like 2 yards and it was totally clear.

[vanislebills44]

dorsey had seemed to neuter allen to where the threat of a run was non existent..

we must make teams respect the threat of an allen run and respect the idea that allen may actually utilize a checkdown to gain positive yards, keep the drive alive and most importantly KEEP POSSESSION

to whomever thinks long drives of 4/5 yard gains per down is non sustainable and prone to mistakes, yah possible but atleast the ball is in our hands, our fate, and the defense mustn't lay back n wait for the deep tightly covered easy to defend passes...

possession possession possesion, whethere its the balls in your hands, the pucks on your stick, the balls at your feet, the key, when u have the ball/puck etc etc u have your own fate in your hands and no one elses...the game is much more controllable when you control the ball 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

“Can’t get bored with the checkdowns”

 

~ Josh Allen

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

Teams have been sinking into coverage since the half way point last year. Also hate to burst peoples bubble, but the running lanes aren’t there like they once were. Teams are rushing Josh with a ton of contain and he’s always got a spy. They don’t risk blitzes. How often do we still see him break toward the sideline and throw a rope? It never happens anymore. Teams won’t let him get to that spot. It was all day his first few seasons. This isn’t just about Josh being less aggressive running. It’s about how teams are defending him. All they want to do is make him a normal QB. Force him to drive the field. Take away his legs. Take away the deep shot. It’s been going on since the half way point last year.

not true. There are many times he could have run for a first down easily this year and he has elected to throw  a bad pass instead. 

Edited November 17, 2023 by Scott7975

[ProcessTruster]

12 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

It's the second and 10 throws 15 yards down the field into coverage with guys open underneath that I wish would change.  Until you make them pay taking the underneath stuff they're never going to come out of 2 high looks.  There's so much All 22 film out there now and from several different sources breaking down the film and they all show pretty much the same thing.  There's also something to be said for drops and fumbles ending drives that might have ended in Allen TD's kind of skewing the explosive plays that are largely what Josh is missing at this point.

yeah Erik Turner and Anthony do a pretty good job of explaining how the pass offense is mostly "option routes" mid-play where both QB and WR must make the same read and assume the same re route and pass in real time.  Also explains why Tavon Austin an Fournette said and are saying how hard the pass offense is to learn . Its not " go run these routes" it's " go out, see what they do and then run whatever route option works against it" -- in real time.   That's tough.  

[DrDawkinstein]

12 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

It's the second and 10 throws 15 yards down the field into coverage with guys open underneath that I wish would change.  Until you make them pay taking the underneath stuff they're never going to come out of 2 high looks.  There's so much All 22 film out there now and from several different sources breaking down the film and they all show pretty much the same thing.  There's also something to be said for drops and fumbles ending drives that might have ended in Allen TD's kind of skewing the explosive plays that are largely what Josh is missing at this point.

 

Good call.

 

The way you get them to come up is pretty simple tho. Run the ball, and even more so, run Josh.

 

No need to be so stubborn and arrogant to call the same type of pass play over and over and over, where the defense has us figured out and is baiting Josh into throws by showing him specific looks. Dorsey couldnt even realize the the Defense was dictating to US instead of the other way around.

 

Let Josh run, and then the Defense will know how that "dictate".

 

[JMM]

9 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

Denver would have let us run the ball all game. It was like a game of chicken. Teams know how to beat us. Just play coverage. We will self destruct if you make us drive the field. We will eventually go away from the run or underneath stuff. We might string together a drive, but we will go away from it. Brady needs to show this isn’t the case. 

THIS!!! 

[Mikie2times]

6 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

not true. There are many times he could have run for a first down easily this year and he has elected to throw  a bad pass instead. 

Having a lane to a first down on a few plays a game is not what Allen was getting prior to 2023. Prior to 2023 on blitzes the entire pass rush would over pursue leaving the middle of the field wide open. The contain on the edges was non existent.  Teams blitzed him and tried to sack him. It left big holes in the contain.  He would get to the sideline and throw ropes to Davis doing the toe tap drill or players releasing downfield. None of this stuff is available to him like it once was. 

Edited November 17, 2023 by Mikie2times

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Mikie2times said:

Having a lane to a first down on a few plays a game is not what Allen was getting prior to 2023. Prior to 2023 on blitzes the entire pass rush would over pursue leaving the middle of the field wide open. The contain on the edges was non existent.  Teams blitzed him and tried to sack him. It left big holes in the contain.  He would get to the sideline and throw ropes to Davis doing the toe tap drill or players releasing downfield. None of this stuff is available to him like it once was. 

 

Im not talking about that but that stuff is there occasionally.  Josh hesitates too long and then it collapses.  What I am talking about though is he has gotten to the sideline and there has been daylight in front of him that he could easily run for that first down.  In the past he would have done so.  Now he doesn't.  Since you bring it up though... his passes on the run are not very good this year.  They used to be money.  Now they are misses.

[Koufax]

Watching these plays gets me more mad at Dorsey. I want Josh completing passes 7-15 yards downfield whenever possible and scrambling when those aren't open for 5-15. That is our bread and butter and when we are best.

 

Lower probability high reward deep balls can fit in as teams cheat to protect the under 15, but right now whether scheme, execution, or arm injury, those are ending up leading to punts and INTs and sacks more than chunk gains.

 

The run game also opens up off of that and doesn't need to be established on the first drives like we seem to insist on doing.

 

I use the expression Bledsoe 2.0 for our "don't scramble, just wait and show us the big arm" and it isn't what made Josh great, and it isn't what makes our offense consistent.

 

I'm also going to say it again and keep repeating it. One on one contact with a DB on the sideline is not where QBs get hurt.  QBs get hurt sitting too long in the pocket.

[Big Turk]

My issue is he keeps making the same throws over and over again that are getting intercepted. He isn't learning from them.  

 

He threw the 2nd INT towards Harty and it was literally the same one he threw the previous week towards Davis in the Bengal game.

 

He almost threw one towards Kincaid on the 2nd play of the game where the Bronco player barely couldn't get his 2nd foot down in bounds that was the same throw he tried to hit Knox on in the Patriot game.

 

WTF is he doing?  Why does he keep making the same bad decisions over and over again?

 

As Welshly Arms asked in the song Legendary:

 

"A new answer to the same question
How many times will you learn the same lesson?"

 

 

[Mango]

16 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I dont think they are going to come out of their looks at all.  They have the deep ball covered and other D is having a fairly easy job covering the underneath pretty tight.  I know, I know, that guy on the screenshot is open but people have a hard time understanding how fast the defender is actually going to get there.  McD's defense has made a living off of swarming to the ball.  Not so much this year as the tackling has been piss poor, but he has.

 

Yes, the underneath stuff needs to happen but they give that stuff up for a reason.  No team is going to consistently move the ball 80 yards 3-5 yards at a time.  Too much potential for mistakes.  Especially with the slow ass people we got that can't really get much separation to begin with.  Josh running the ball or even us picking up 7-8 yards a carry consistently might get teams out of it but right now I don't think thats going to happen.

There has to be a better middle ground between what you’re saying and what others are saying. 
 

The Bills are 19th in the league in total offensive plays and half to 2/3rds of the league have had their bye. We are currently reaping some positive because of it. That ranking will likely get worse in a week or two.
 

We’re struggling to sustain drives and not throwing the football to open receivers is a huge part of it.
 

And frankly if running Josh more has to be the solution to not throwing the ball to open guys then he is really going to struggle to play the position into his 30’s when he loses a step or two. 
 

Hopefully Brady can get this offense humming and Allen finds his groove again. But it has to start with completing the plays that are there. 

[Scott7975]

I'll just add this to this thread.

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

He threw the 2nd INT towards Harty and it was literally the same one he threw the previous week towards Davis in the Bengal game.

 

They were actually entirely different concepts. It's been explained better by others on here, but essentially the deep out route by Harty is a route designed to beat the exact quarters coverage Denver was playing there. It was not a high/low read like the one Allen misread against the Bengals.

 

Two issues caused the 2nd INT:

1) Allen didn't throw the ball far enough towards the sideline.

2) Harty's route was disgustingly bad and made it easy for the defender to undercut the pass.

 

I am less concerned about INTs caused by less than ideal throws than I am INTs where Allen misread the coverage or threw a stupid dangerous pass. Here he correctly identified the defensive coverage and threw the right route. The execution from him and Harty was just not good enough.

 

Edited November 18, 2023 by HappyDays

[Man with No Name]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

They were actually entirely different concepts. It's been explained better by others on here, but essentially the deep out route by Harty is a route designed to beat the exact quarters coverage Denver was playing there. It was not a high/low read like the one Allen misread against the Bengals.

 

Two issues caused the 2nd INT:

1) Allen didn't throw the ball far enough towards the sideline.

2) Harty's route was disgustingly bad and made it easy for the defender to undercut the pass.

 

I am less concerned about INTs caused by less than ideal throws than I am INTs where Allen misread the coverage or threw a stupid dangerous pass. Here he correctly identified the defensive coverage and threw the right route. The execution from him and Harty was just not good enough.

 

that int looked so bad, but I always admit I don't fully grasp what im watching. would love to see some sort of drawing breakdown that shows what harty did and where he threw the ball, versus where harty should have been and where the ball should have been. watching on tv, it just looks like the dumbest choice possibly imaginable. 

[Charles Romes]

I think the Jags added a new wrinkle to the two high look for defending the Bills.  They seemed to be baiting Allen to taking wide open check downs that looked like 8 yard gains but were so predictable they were able to converge and limit them to 3-5 yard gains. 

[Nextmanup]

The less intelligent you are, the more you are inclined to see the world as a simple to understand, black and white universe.

 

In reality, it's all a complex shading of gray.

 

Our problems DEFINITELY fall on Dorsey.  They also DEFINITELY fall on Josh, and several OTHER factors as well.

 

The "broken offense" will continue with the new OC.  I'm not sure much will even be different with Brady.

 

The good news is there is still A LOT OF FOOTBALL left to be played this year, and it stays a broken ugly mess from now until the finish line, we might just be able to move on from McD.

 

 

[Malazan]

On 11/16/2023 at 7:07 PM, Maine-iac said:

It's the second and 10 throws 15 yards down the field into coverage with guys open underneath that I wish would change.  Until you make them pay taking the underneath stuff they're never going to come out of 2 high looks.  There's so much All 22 film out there now and from several different sources breaking down the film and they all show pretty much the same thing.  There's also something to be said for drops and fumbles ending drives that might have ended in Allen TD's kind of skewing the explosive plays that are largely what Josh is missing at this point.

 

Modern defenses are not the 3 and out machines we recall from yesteryear. The philosophy now is to let the other team rack up yards and stats. If they want to score, they have to march down the field and stay disciplined and mistake free the whole way. Defenses have embraced that a mistake on offense is much more damaging than a mistake on defense as long as that mistake is not a big play down field. 

 

When Dorsey was hired, I expressed concern that he and Josh both are guys who like the 'big play' and I wasn't sure Dorsey would be a good complement to Allen because I didn't think either one could remain disciplined and take what the defense gave them consistently play after, drive after drive, game after game. They get impatient and will try to force a 'big play' even if one isn't there. 

 

I was mistaken in thinking that they needed to get Allen to change and accept taking the underneath stuff not as an outlet after several seconds when there's no chance at a big play (and he's been amazing when he does it). I had thought that he'd eventually embrace it. However, It's not in his nature to be that sort of QB and they need to adapt an offense an offense that Allen will run and find a way to deal with the difficulties that if they can't get guys open on the 15+ yard routes that's he going to force it so they need to find someone who's plays don't end up with multiple receivers within a couple yards of each other way more frequently than they should be..

[Shaw66]

On 11/16/2023 at 11:29 PM, Scott7975 said:

 

I dont think they are going to come out of their looks at all.  They have the deep ball covered and other D is having a fairly easy job covering the underneath pretty tight.  I know, I know, that guy on the screenshot is open but people have a hard time understanding how fast the defender is actually going to get there.  McD's defense has made a living off of swarming to the ball.  Not so much this year as the tackling has been piss poor, but he has.

 

Yes, the underneath stuff needs to happen but they give that stuff up for a reason.  No team is going to consistently move the ball 80 yards 3-5 yards at a time.  Too much potential for mistakes.  Especially with the slow ass people we got that can't really get much separation to begin with.  Josh running the ball or even us picking up 7-8 yards a carry consistently might get teams out of it but right now I don't think thats going to happen.

I agree with your take on this, and it's why I've been complaining about Dorsey for a while.  If they're taking away the deep ball, and they've shut down the 15-yard wideout Josh used to live on, and if they're covering the underneath stuff, too, then their are opportunities to attach SOMEWHERE.   It isn't possible for the back seven to cover sideline to sideline, line of scrimmage to the end zone.   We saw nothing from Dorsey that suggested he could see where the openings were or that he could design routes that would punish the defense for playing the way they do.  

[Shaw66]

9 minutes ago, Malazan said:

 

 

I was mistaken in thinking that they needed to get Allen to change and accept taking the underneath stuff not as an outlet after several seconds when there's no chance at a big play (and he's been amazing when he does it). I had thought that he'd eventually embrace it. However, It's not in his nature to be that sort of QB and they need to adapt an offense an offense that Allen will run and find a way to deal with the difficulties that if they can't get guys open on the 15+ yard routes that's he going to force it so they need to find someone who's plays don't end up with multiple receivers within a couple yards of each other way more frequently than they should be..

No you weren't mistaken.

 

The basic rule of good offense, I'm convinced, is make every play a positive play.  Throwing the pass you can complete 80+% of the time for 5 yards and a possible run after catch is a much better play than throwing a pass you can complete 50% of the time for 15 yards.  Josh has to understand.   Yes, there are situations that demand something else, but most of the game, that kind of decision making is what wins. 

 

The Bills were winning early in the season, and Josh had completion percentages in the 70s and 80s.   He can do it, but the coaches need to give him the open guys to throw to and the reads so that he can make those kinds of decisions.  

 

And this is where Josh's running comes in.  I've come to the conclusion that the Bills don't need the 800-yard rushing Josh, but he needs to have a couple of good runs a game, some designed, just to give the defense another element that makes the Bills offense truly multi-faceted.  Josh needs to get down and avoid injury, but he needs to run often enough so that every play the defense has that threat in the back of their mind.   With that added element, any good coordinator should be able to create route trees that generate open receivers on a regular basis.   Josh needs those trees, and he needs to know how to recognize where the open guy is.  That's all on the offensive coordinator.  

[TheyCallMeAndy]

On 11/17/2023 at 12:11 AM, sven233 said:

You want to see Allen's INT count go down?  Let him run more.  Get back to the designed runs (5 a game would be enough) and tell him he has the green light to scramble anytime he sees an opening. 

 

Right now, teams are not respecting his running ability anymore because they see that he isn't doing it nearly the way he used to.  And because of this, teams feel real comfortable sinking into coverage and just waiting for him to make a mistake.  He may as well be any statue QB you want to name back there.  Sure, he moves out of the pocket to buy time, but he isn't using his legs as a true weapon and teams know this.  There are several times this season where you watch the tape and see a chance for him on a 3rd and medium to just take off and pick it up with his legs, yet it VERY rarely happens anymore and teams again know this.

 

All you have to do is put that fear back into defenses that at any moment he'll burn you for 40 yards or a critical first down.  They will start having to creep back up and that will in turn loosen up the coverage down the field and create more openings and opportunities.  I mean, most of this season, teams are not only not respecting his legs or ability to burn them running, but they are actually baiting him into mistakes because of it.  They'll initially squat on the underneath stuff, particularly the shallow routes to the sidelines and then as soon as he starts moving out of the pocket, since they know he isn't going to take off and run, they fall off those shallow targets and sink back waiting for him to try and hit the honey hole.  He's made this throw so many times in years past and he's amazing at this.  But who else knows this?  The defenses we play, of course.  So, teams will constantly continue to do this until we make them pay for it either by letting Allen take off or create their own counters by changing up the underneath routes.  We run this concept so much, teams can see it coming a mile away.  This, along with our mesh concept, have become way too easy for defenses to figure out what we're doing at the snap and then easily take it away.  Here's hoping Brady fires these concepts to the moon for a while and gets away from the predictability they come with and just let Allen loose.  I'm telling you, while the INTs may not completely go away, they will be dramatically reduced by letting Allen use all of his physical gifts.

Then the fumbles go up. 
 

Bottom line, Allen needs to make better and smarter decisions.