Allen and judgement turnovers

[WIDE LEFT]

Any QB’s turnover issue really requires more nuanced analysis than is generally given. The REAL turnover problem is the “judgement” turnovers, which generally fall into two categories - interceptions thrown where the QB doesn’t read the coverages, throws interception on a pass play that is covered. A subset of this is just an errant throw to an open receiver. The second category is holding the ball too long, not sensing and/or reading the pressure - resulting in a strip sack. For all the national media whining about Allen’s turnovers after Monday’s game misses the point that after 4 quarters of play Allen had a grand total of ONE judgement turnover - his 2nd interception. His first “ interception” was a perfectly thrown pass to an open WR.

 

A non judgement turnover is generally less problematic- fumbled snap, ball punched out on a designed QB run etc. These things happen to all players, and a QB’s judgement really not an issues in these type of TOS.

 

BUT - Allen has a fairly unique and troubling problem with non judgement turnovers. I can only speculate that he gets too hyped up in big pressure situations & fails to execute routine things. Minnesota game last year - ball on 1 yard line, game in hand. Allen has taken thousands of snaps in his career, but at this very big moment fumbles a routine snap that went directly into his hands. Jets game this year, big moment, in control of game in the 4th quarter and he fumbles away a routine shotgun snap. Again he has handled thousands of these, but again a pressure  moment and he messes up the routine. And Mondays game - again he completely mishandles a routine handoff in a huge, pressure moment. This is a pattern here, and it’s a BIG (and fairly unique) problem.

[Low Positive]

7 minutes ago, WIDE LEFT said:

Any QB’s turnover issue really requires more nuanced analysis than is generally given. The REAL turnover problem is the “judgement” turnovers, which generally fall into two categories - interceptions thrown where the QB doesn’t read the coverages, throws interception on a pass play that is covered. A subset of this is just an errant throw to an open receiver. The second category is holding the ball too long, not sensing and/or reading the pressure - resulting in a strip sack. For all the national media whining about Allen’s turnovers after Monday’s game misses the point that after 4 quarters of play Allen had a grand total of ONE judgement turnover - his 2nd interception. His first “ interception” was a perfectly thrown pass to an open WR.

 

A non judgement turnover is generally less problematic- fumbled snap, ball punched out on a designed QB run etc. These things happen to all players, and a QB’s judgement really not an issues in these type of TOS.

 

BUT - Allen has a fairly unique and troubling problem with non judgement turnovers. I can only speculate that he gets too hyped up in big pressure situations & fails to execute routine things. Minnesota game last year - ball on 1 yard line, game in hand. Allen has taken thousands of snaps in his career, but at this very big moment fumbles a routine snap that went directly into his hands. Jets game this year, big moment, in control of game in the 4th quarter and he fumbles away a routine shotgun snap. Again he has handled thousands of these, but again a pressure  moment and he messes up the routine. And Mondays game - again he completely mishandles a routine handoff in a huge, pressure moment. This is a pattern here, and it’s a BIG (and fairly unique) problem.

He's not alone there. Tua fumbles snaps in pressure moments often enough to call it a pattern. In Josh's case, in all of those plays that you cite, he started running the play before he got the ball. 

[SoCal Deek]

The 2023 version of Josh is a total mental mess. You can over analyze it to death if you want, but it has all the signs of a guy who isn’t in the moment, in the moment. His head is clearly elsewhere. 

[BuffaloRebound]

He used to tuck it and run when he was confused. Now he double clutches then throws late to unopen Receivers.  

[Bob Jones]

12 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

The 2023 version of Josh is a total mental mess. You can over analyze it to death if you want, but it has all the signs of a guy who isn’t in the moment, in the moment. His head is clearly elsewhere. 

Yep. And the irony is that before the season started he came out and publicly proclaimed that, and I'm paraphrasing here because I don’t remember the exact quote, "I'm going to really be concentrating on my game this year."

[EasternOHBillsFan]

18 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

The 2023 version of Josh is a total mental mess. You can over analyze it to death if you want, but it has all the signs of a guy who isn’t in the moment, in the moment. His head is clearly elsewhere. 

 

That's why Dorsey got fired! Sheer incompetence, not doing his job. He destroyed his confidence. Putting it all on Josh's shoulders is asinine and wrong,

[MPL]

4 minutes ago, Bob Jones said:

18 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

The 2023 version of Josh is a total mental mess. You can over analyze it to death if you want, but it has all the signs of a guy who isn’t in the moment, in the moment. His head is clearly elsewhere. 

Yep. And the irony is that before the season started he came out and publicly proclaimed that, and I'm paraphrasing here because I don’t remember the exact quote, "I'm going to really be concentrating on my game this year."

I think it was, "I've never been more focused on football than I am right now." 

He's in his head — thinking too much — not playing, not reacting, not having fun. I've seen Allen play lights out in enough big games to not reduce it to saying he doesn't play well when it matters. But there's something terribly wrong this year and anyone's guess is as good as mine. 

[90sBills]

5 hours ago, Bob Jones said:

Yep. And the irony is that before the season started he came out and publicly proclaimed that, and I'm paraphrasing here because I don’t remember the exact quote, "I'm going to really be concentrating on my game this year."

This was a red flag for me in the offseason. 

[Buffalo Streaker]

6 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

He used to tuck it and run when he was confused. Now he double clutches then throws late to unopen Receivers.  

Spot on!  You can see it time and time again this season.  Coached the instincts right out of him.

[WotAGuy]

I would have problems focusing at work if I had a Hollywood starlet for a GF and a few hundred mill coming in. Hell, I’d probably be dead. 

[Matt_In_NH]

Does anyone think a quarterback can throw the ball too fast on some routes?

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Does anyone think a quarterback can throw the ball too fast on some routes?

 

Yes. And he did on the first pick the other night. Gabe should still catch it. No question. But Josh didn't need to put as much as he did on that throw. 

[90sBills]

2 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Does anyone think a quarterback can throw the ball too fast on some routes?

That’s how some overthrows happen.

 

I don’t see that happening with Allen. I think sometimes his reads are late and he tries to make up that time with his arm. Throwing it as hard as he can to beat the defenders. Sometimes it works. Sometimes the defenders win. Sometimes it gets there too hot to handle or not at a premium position for the receiver to get max yac.

 

The fix is to identify open receivers quicker and make throws that are conducive to success. 

[LABILLBACKER]

7 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

The 2023 version of Josh is a total mental mess. You can over analyze it to death if you want, but it has all the signs of a guy who isn’t in the moment, in the moment. His head is clearly elsewhere. 

I totally agree.  Mentally he's clearly lost a level of focus. And I'm not going to list all the possibilities as to why.  Only Josh can do this. He's getting conflicting messages from every direction.  Brady has to slow him down some. Simplify the offense and reduce turnover situations. The biggest objective from here on out is somehow re-establishing confidence in himself.  And I'm not talking about the whole team giving him a big hug.  This has to come from Josh, with a sprinkling of help from Brady.

Edited November 16, 2023 by LABILLBACKER

[Mikie2times]

This is my biggest issue with Josh and where I usually disconnect with other people when evaluating him. I see bad interceptions. Like not seeing the defender, throwing it right at him. We saw it back to back weeks. I certainly count those more than a deep shot attempt or a tipped ball.

[ILBillsfan]

i have 5 were bad decisions...two i know the down distance so im ok with the 3rd down long punt/Int...two ball was just off a bit on the pass Diggs snd the knox crosser ...one on a WR and one a bad luck int on the tip vs tampa imo

 

not saying I do not want less turnovers but it's more than just oh it's josh in the moment thing.......hate all you want 26 temas will take Allen in a heart beat and I trust that more

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

"How can you dislike a turnover?!"

[Luka]

Poor route concepts can lead to interceptions as well. There has been lots of double clutching and indecisiveness on Allen's part but we all know what he's capable so I'm inclined to put a lot of the interceptions on play calling.

 

The one thing that Allen certainly can take full blame for is the multitude of fumbles he's been responsible for through out his career. Not sure why coaching hasn't been able to correct that honestly. It's fundamental football. 

[Never NEVER Give-up]

[colin]

he's made horrible mistakes, but vs denver and new england if the d stops either of these trash offenses in the last drive, we win.

 

vs the bengals, it's maybe a stretch but kinkaid not fumbling and we have room to win that game.

 

against jax, we had a garbage time td, but we had a drive where we did a cover zero blitz and let up a big conversion, if we don't give that big conversion we have every chance to win the game.

 

so if we just get stops on the two games vs the worst opponents above, we are 7-3 and cruising.

 

he's been bad turning it over, real bad vs the jets, but better play calls on either side of the ball, just a few, even with the turnovers we are in the driver's seat.

 

the man beater routes vs zone and the hole shot outside play (seems to always be mirrored on both sides according to the talking heads ive seen) need to be thrown out.

[Never NEVER Give-up]

Josh is fine DESPITE running a predictable offense and has more often than not played well enough for the Bills to win, but non-complimentary football (poor ST play and a softer-than-expect Defense) has hurt the Teams Record.  Quick look at the losses . . .
Week 1 - Jets: got the team to OT, ST allowed a punt return
Week 5 - Jags: scored 13 in 4th Qtr, Defense allowed 14 in 25-20 loss
Week 7 - Pats: scored 15 in the 4th Qtr, Defense allowed 13 and a 2 minute game-winning drive
Week 9 - Cincy: Toughest game of the year. Scored 8 in 4th Qtr, simply not enough.
Week 10 - Denver: Lowest point of the season. Scored 1 TD in each the 3rd & 4th Qtr. Defense allowed a TD & FG in 4th Qtr, allowing another game-winning 2 minute drive.

[ChrisWatson#21]

Josh has been conditioned to play hero ball since his Wyoming days where he also didn't have much around him.  He has Diggs but there really isn't anything else scary about this offense.  He hasn't had the luxury of throwing to first round talents or pro bowl running backs in his backfield or playing for a HOF coach or a defense with playmakers since he came in the league.  They need to find a way to get him some help on offense next season.

Edited November 16, 2023 by ChrisWatson#21

[Matt_In_NH]

1 hour ago, 90sBills said:

That’s how some overthrows happen.

 

I don’t see that happening with Allen. I think sometimes his reads are late and he tries to make up that time with his arm. Throwing it as hard as he can to beat the defenders. Sometimes it works. Sometimes the defenders win. Sometimes it gets there too hot to handle or not at a premium position for the receiver to get max yac.

 

The fix is to identify open receivers quicker and make throws that are conducive to success. 

I would argue that is how several interceptions have happened to Josh with balls bouncing off guys hands.  People want to make a blanket statement ball goes off your hands you should have caught it.  I think there is room for he that ball had too much heat on it.  If you watch the drops by Gabe and Kincaid vs the Broncos, both receivers were both still getting their hands raised to catch the ball.   I am not sure where to draw the line, was it the throw or was it the receiver dropping the ball.  I don't see much push on the heaters where I think it should sometimes.

[larrym]

glad to see at least bills fans realize it's not just x amount of turnovers so they're all his fault. it's a collective fail.  josh isn't fumbling the ball after a catch and run.  josh isn't letting perfectly thrown balls go right through the hands and into a defender.  

[larrym]

They need to find him weapons that aren't walmart bargain bin weapons.  Aside from diggs.....  Also a real consistent running game.  I think cooke can be that guy but something needs to change.  I'm not versed in football systems so I don't know if it's just the patriots o that theyve added to is the problem or if they need a wholesale change to another system.  

[Mikie2times]

39 minutes ago, Never NEVER Give-up said:

Josh is fine DESPITE running a predictable offense and has more often than not played well enough for the Bills to win, but non-complimentary football (poor ST play and a softer-than-expect Defense) has hurt the Teams Record.  Quick look at the losses . . .
Week 1 - Jets: got the team to OT, ST allowed a punt return
Week 5 - Jags: scored 13 in 4th Qtr, Defense allowed 14 in 25-20 loss
Week 7 - Pats: scored 15 in the 4th Qtr, Defense allowed 13 and a 2 minute game-winning drive
Week 9 - Cincy: Toughest game of the year. Scored 8 in 4th Qtr, simply not enough.
Week 10 - Denver: Lowest point of the season. Scored 1 TD in each the 3rd & 4th Qtr. Defense allowed a TD & FG in 4th Qtr, allowing another game-winning 2 minute drive.

Some posters make decent points about Josh but this is a pretty interesting take. I don't feel the need to go over all this as it would be a waste of time so lets just talk Jets game. 

 

Bills are winning 13-6, Jets haven't mounted a TD threat all game. Bills are on the 50. Allen throws his 3rd Interception of the game. The Jets take that drive and score a TD.  Next Drive Allen receives the snap at the 30 yards line. It hits him directly in the chest. He drops the snap. The Jets recover and kick a field goal to take the first lead of the game. 10 points directly off Allen turnovers with under 10 minutes to play facing Zach Wilson. We did force OT. I suppose he should get credit for that as you said. He went three and out and the Jets win on the punt return.  This is just one of your examples. Allen directly cost us the game. 

 

Honestly I can't take your post serious.

 

Is it serious? 

 

 

Edited November 16, 2023 by Mikie2times

[ganesh]

3 hours ago, colin said:

he's made horrible mistakes, but vs denver and new england if the d stops either of these trash offenses in the last drive, we win.

 

vs the bengals, it's maybe a stretch but kinkaid not fumbling and we have room to win that game.

 

against jax, we had a garbage time td, but we had a drive where we did a cover zero blitz and let up a big conversion, if we don't give that big conversion we have every chance to win the game.

 

so if we just get stops on the two games vs the worst opponents above, we are 7-3 and cruising.

 

he's been bad turning it over, real bad vs the jets, but better play calls on either side of the ball, just a few, even with the turnovers we are in the driver's seat.

 

the man beater routes vs zone and the hole shot outside play (seems to always be mirrored on both sides according to the talking heads ive seen) need to be thrown out.

It is a game of inches.  Teams pile up wins when they can make those two stops in the game.    The Bills failed to do that...If you look at every other above-average team, they will have the same story.

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, ganesh said:

It is a game of inches.  Teams pile up wins when they can make those two stops in the game.    The Bills failed to do that...If you look at every other above-average team, they will have the same story.

half the stories are about teams pulling out wins.  the other half are teams choking away games. 

[Never NEVER Give-up]

14 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

Honestly I can't take your post serious.

 

Is it serious? 

 

 

If I have to explain it to you . . .  assume it's not serious and be on your way.