Say you're Brandon Beane: what do you do with these three contracts?

[ShakAttack]

Also, I do believe there will be at least one game this season down the stretch where Von Miller will make his mark and - for at least a week - it will seem like he is back, but with our current record and our remaining schedule there is also A very good chance that moment will be “too little, too late”

[Nephilim17]

Miller's contact now looking (post injury; he looked great last year and many of us thought he'd be a very good player for three years) really bad:

Dead cap: 

 

2024: $32,501,000    

2025: $15,417,000

2026: $9,043,000

Yikes. Looks like we're stuck with Von for at least two more years after this. Let's hope he keeps getting better in his recovery and can still be an impact player. Not saying he will, but that's the hope.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/von-miller-7717/

 

[billsfan714]

4 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

But his hit is over $16M so it makes sense to cut him.

Or you could look at it as its 6 mill difference to keep a starting CB.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

1 minute ago, sven233 said:

Knox - Ah.....the contract that should have never been signed in the first place.  They didn't need to do it when they did it and now we're stuck paying a #2 TE premium money at the position for a while.  And he isn't even the best TE on this team.  But you watch......as soon as he comes back, the coaches will put him back as the #1 even if Kincaid continues his awesome production.  I think with this staff, even if Knox puts up 100+ every game will still play Knox more as soon as he's healthy.  They love the guy.

 

This is one of the best takes I have read here... by keeping Knox at #1, the whole entire reason why you draft a guy like Kincaid that high is COMPLETELY LOST on McD and Dorsey... you have young TEs like Laporta and Hockenson destroying defenses and he relegate Kincaid to #2. It's CRIMINAL...

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, Nephilim17 said:

Miller's contact now looking (post injury; he looked great last year and many of us thought he'd be a very good player for three years) really bad:

Dead cap: 

 

2024: $32,501,000    

2025: $15,417,000

2026: $9,043,000

Yikes. Looks like we're stuck with Von for at least two more years after this. Let's hope he keeps getting better in his recovery and can still be an impact player. Not saying he will, but that's the hope.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/von-miller-7717/

 

That's the sandwich.

 

I think they have to eat it. If they're paying it either way, I'd rather have a young guy in that spot who can actually contribute.

 

[billsfan714]

Im old but remember Jerry Rice coming back in the same season from an ACL(yes scored a TD and broke his kneecap in return game), Von on just short of 12 months and he cant register a solo tackle?  

[colin]

2 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

That's the sandwich.

 

I think they have to eat it. If they're paying it either way, I'd rather have a young guy in that spot who can actually contribute.

 

 

 

the first contract was 3y 51mm, 17 a year, same as chandy jones got.

 

the cap moves since really messed us up.

 

so, we had a thread about how montez sweat cost a second and got 24mm per year.  in all honestly, that was a much much better contract than what we did for von.

[dma0034]

So we will see about Von. He is still recovering from that ACL tear and may be decent next year. White is gone. I said it when the Bills signed Knox: terrible contract for an at best average TE. Beg the Pats to take him? Give them a 6th... they love TEs?

[uticaclub]

I don't want Beane or McDermott to be the one making the decision with these contracts, they got us in this mess someone else should get us out

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, billsfan714 said:

Im old but remember Jerry Rice coming back in the same season from an ACL(yes scored a TD and broke his kneecap in return game), Von on just short of 12 months and he cant register a solo tackle?  

 

I keep telling people he's washed.

 

Brandon Beane's career will likely die because of that error.

 

What a waste.

 

Just now, uticaclub said:

I don't want Beane or McDermott to be the one making the decision with these contracts, they got us in this mess someone else should get us out

 

Yes, well, that would be ideal. But I don't trust Pegula to pull the trigger. He's gutless.

 

[Low Positive]

5 minutes ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

This is one of the best takes I have read here... by keeping Knox at #1, the whole entire reason why you draft a guy like Kincaid that high is COMPLETELY LOST on McD and Dorsey... you have young TEs like Laporta and Hockenson destroying defenses and he relegate Kincaid to #2. It's CRIMINAL...

Hockenson was drafted in the same year as Knox.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

Just now, FrenchConnection said:

Hockenson was drafted in the same year as Knox.

 

Hockenson is still a young TE and is great... do you really think that Knox is great, on the level of Hockenson?

[Bray Wyatt]

What is the cap if we trade knox? Any different than a cut?

[All_Pro_Bills]

The Elephant in the room is Allen's cap hit goes from $18.6M this year to $47M in 2024 with the team projected to be over the cap by around ($41.9M) assuming an NFL team cap of $240M in 2024.  So where do you "save" $42M, sign your draft class, and maybe some low-level free agents?  Cutting Tre saves about $6M but finding the rest might be painful.  Miami is in the same boat over ($34.7M) with the Jets $14.4M under.

[Low Positive]

Just now, All_Pro_Bills said:

The Elephant in the room is Allen's cap hit goes from $18.6M this year to $47M in 2024 with the team projected to be over the cap by around ($41.9M) assuming an NFL team cap of $240M in 2024.  So where do you "save" $42M, sign your draft class, and maybe some low-level free agents?  Cutting Tre saves about $6M but finding the rest might be painful.  Miami is in the same boat over ($34.7M) with the Jets $14.4M under.

Miami is that far over without a QB contract.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

4 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

The Elephant in the room is Allen's cap hit goes from $18.6M this year to $47M in 2024 with the team projected to be over the cap by around ($41.9M) assuming an NFL team cap of $240M in 2024.  So where do you "save" $42M, sign your draft class, and maybe some low-level free agents?  Cutting Tre saves about $6M but finding the rest might be painful.  Miami is in the same boat over ($34.7M) with the Jets $14.4M under.

That's a whole other problem, I agree.

 

[QCity]

10 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

The Elephant in the room is Allen's cap hit goes from $18.6M this year to $47M in 2024 with the team projected to be over the cap by around ($41.9M) assuming an NFL team cap of $240M in 2024.  So where do you "save" $42M, sign your draft class, and maybe some low-level free agents?  Cutting Tre saves about $6M but finding the rest might be painful.  Miami is in the same boat over ($34.7M) with the Jets $14.4M under.

 

A lot of people don't understand this.  Reinforcements aren't riding over the horizon next year.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Tre has an opt out this summer that saves 6 mill but has a 10 mill dead cap. 
 

Von doesn’t have an out til 2025, huge dead cap makes it unlikely to be released. Retirement may be a legitimate storyline this summer.

 

Knox contact, while a high average, is only pricey next year then the team also has an opt out. I think it’s significantly more likely the team restructures his deal than releases him. 
 

So there you have it. Tre release/opt out/pay cut, Knox restructure, Von pray. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

44 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Before they just cut Tre outright, I think they discuss a restructuring to a level that would be more in line with his new market coming off injury,

 

With Knox, I think they consider his value in more than just being a pass catching TE, but his blocking ability too.

 

As for Von, depends his level of play by end of the season.  But they’re kind of screwed there no matter what.

 

Yeah think with Kincaid being the #1 TE Knox will become more of the blocking TE and chips out on blocks.  Early in the season Kincaid wasn't doing much, but now with the way he's playing, defenses will need to cover him good so could mean more opportunities for Knox slipping out of backfield.

 

Think the Bills ran it back one year too much. But can understand why they took the chance.  Last three seasons were one of 4 last teams standing, then final 8 but without 13 seconds should again have been final 4 with AFc title game in Buffalo, then again final 8, but with many things happened through the year (shooting, Kim P, 2 blizzards, and then Hamlin) so can understand why they took the chance made some moves to improve and for the most part ran it back.  Prior to the injuries on defense it appeared to be working.  Last year Poyer was looking a bit old, but could attribute some of that to missing his running mate Hyde.  In hindsight, that wasn't entirely the issue. 

 

To answer the original question, get rid or don't resign; White, Poyer, Hyde, Morse, Hines, Murray, Ford, Settle, Phillips, Davis, Norman, Jackson, Klein, Matakavich, & Shaq to name most.

 

I'd then try ans sign extensions with Douglas, Rapp, Jones, and AJ though not sure they will be able to afford him.

 

Get younger and cheaper, take a year to rebuild, by then Rodgers will likely be gone and Bengals, Ravens, Jets and Dolphins will all be in cap trouble.

 

 

[VaMilBill]

1 hour ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Von Miller

Tre White

Dawson Knox

 

In my eyes, you can do one of three things:

 

1) Ride them out, be mediocre because you don't have any cap space to work with, pray to God you get some kind of production out of them

2) Burn them all after this season, eat the same cap ***** sandwich and emerge in a much healthier place in 2025

3) Cut two of three of them, triage-style, still eat the cap ***** sandwich and be better off in 2025

 

Are there any other options out there? I'm happy to hear them.

 

I’d probably hold onto Tre and cut Knox and Von

[TheyCallMeAndy]

1 minute ago, I am the egg man said:

Rewarding Knox with a top end TE contract for a flash in the pan season was a bit dubious. 

 

Did McBeane had visions of double TE granduer (Gronk/Hernandez) by drafting Kincaid ?

 

Whatever, it's looking like Kincaid has relegated Knox to being an overpaid blocking TE. 

 

 

   

 

Again, Knox contract isn’t top end. It’s high middle. 

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, I am the egg man said:

Rewarding Knox with a top end TE contract for a flash in the pan season was a bit dubious. 

 

Did McBeane had visions of double TE granduer (Gronk/Hernandez) by drafting Kincaid ?

 

Whatever, it's looking like Kincaid has relegated Knox to being an overpaid blocking TE. 

 

 

   

 

 

While it isnt the best possible value, looking at the entire list of TE contracts shows that Knox is pretty accurately paid.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/sort-value/tight-end/limit-100/

 

The guys ahead of him are all much better. And the 4-5 guys right after him are making about as much but aren't nearly as good.

 

Hardly our worst contract.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

52 minutes ago, Process said:

Is this true on Von? When did we restructure to make it essentially a four year deal? And why?

 

I always thought it was three. Being stuck with him for two more years after this one would be brutal. 

 

 

 

His base salary this year is 1.5 so they definitely kicked the can.  It is not a 4 year deal at minimum.  The out is still there in 2025 - you just only get 8.4M in cap savings to cut him.  

 

You can't cut him next year as his base salary is fully guaranteed.  You can't trade him because 17.1M is a lot for a pass rusher that hasn't flashed since 2022 pre-injury.  

[DrDawkinstein]

3 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Again, Knox contract isn’t top end. It’s high middle. 

 

It's currently #7. I agree it isnt too crazy, but I'll feel better after another round of FA when it is out of the top 10.

[MPL]

Beane needs to approach next season the way he did in 2018: treat it like a rebuild and try to offload as much as possible. That means accepting 2024, and probably 2025, as true down years. If they do it right, they can be competing again with a largely new roster (and new coach) by 2026. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

27 minutes ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

This is one of the best takes I have read here... by keeping Knox at #1, the whole entire reason why you draft a guy like Kincaid that high is COMPLETELY LOST on McD and Dorsey... you have young TEs like Laporta and Hockenson destroying defenses and he relegate Kincaid to #2. It's CRIMINAL...

 

Sounds good except no idea if any of it's true.  What happened the first 6 games of the season doesn't mean it will continue when Knox returns.  Early on Kincaid struggled and still does though has seemed to improved with blocking compared to Knox so made sense to play Knox more early on.

 

20 minutes ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

Hockenson is still a young TE and is great... do you really think that Knox is great, on the level of Hockenson?

 

If Hockenson is so great, how come he got traded?  The Lions received a 2nd and 3rd, but gave up a 4th and 5th in the deal, not exactly the return I'd expect for a "great" player.  I looked this up recently, I believe every TE drafted prior to Knox that season has either been traded or cut. 

 

Hockenson is playing better than Knox, but he also was 1st round pick so should be.  Knox it the 9th highest paid TE, by next season likely will drop further.  Hockenson is #2 BTW making more than Kittle, Kelce, and Andrews

 

[RunTheBall]

They aren’t getting rid of Knox or Miller. Von isn’t even a year out from an ACL yet. So we are going to cut him, eat the cap hit, then he goes to another team healthy? That’s not happening.

 

Knox is a bit overpaid and undervalued here. I think once he’s healthy he could be a solid 1b TE going forward. His skill set is completely different than Kincaid’s and I think they compliment each other.

 

Unfortunately Tre is done. Love the guy, my heart breaks for what he’s had to endure but unless he takes a huge pay cut, he’s not coming back. Mentally IDK if he can bounce back from 2 season ending injuries not to mention he’s getting older and what those injuries do to his speed/athleticism

 

 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

It's currently #7. I agree it isnt too crazy, but I'll feel better after another round of FA when it is out of the top 10.

Dawson Knox is not the 7th highest paid TE this year, after FA next year he’ll be outside the top-10. 

[The Jokeman]

Meanwhile the Jets also have two TEs being paid in the top 32 positions (17th and 21st) respectively. I can't even tell you how many catches they have but I doubt it's less than Kincaid and Knox have combined. 

Edited November 6, 2023 by The Jokeman

[Alphadawg7]

None of these contracts matter if Dorsey is still the OC next year because this team is going no where with him at OC.  

[US Egg]

7 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Again, Knox contract isn’t top end. It’s high middle. 

NFL's highest paid tight ends in 2023 (average salary per year):

1. Giants TE Darren Waller: $17 million

2. 49ers TE George Kittle: $15 million

3.  Chiefs TE Travis Kelce: $14.3 million

4. Eagles TE Dallas Goedert: $14.25 million

5. Ravens TE Mark Andrews: $14 million

6. Jaguars TE Evan Engram: $13.75 million

7. Browns TE David Njoku: $13.68 million

8. Bills TE Dawson Knox: $13 million

 

I'd say lower top, but, I digress.

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

8 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Again, Knox contract isn’t top end. It’s high middle. 

High middle is still way too high for a blocking TE.  This team needs to keep Kincaid and find a way to get out of the Knox contract.  We perform better in the hurry up 11P anyways.  Tre & Knox need to go. We're stuck with Von's 3rd year.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

None of these contracts matter if Dorsey is still the OC next year because this team is going no where with him at OC.  

 

 

Yep Josh may soon be crossing the intersection of "f*ck around all offseason.........and find out what it's like to have to learn an entirely new offense".

 

Great QB's make bad OC's look good all the time.   Hopefully a change would be a wake-up call to QB1.   Dorsey was his hand picked choice because he didn't want to have to learn a new offense.   My guess, based on McD's fascination with outside zone run games, is McDermott would have hired a Shanahan disciple to replace Daboll if it weren't for Josh's input.   

[All_Pro_Bills]

4 minutes ago, QCity said:

 

A lot of people don't understand this.  Reinforcements aren't riding over the horizon next year.

AFC QB's w/2024 cap hits & UFA year & age when UFA

 

Allen $47M, UFA 2029, age 33

Mahomes $57.4, UFA 2032, age 39 (last 2 years can be voided)

Jackson $32.4M, UFA 2028, age 33

Borrow $29.7M, UFA 2033, age 37 (last 3 years can be voided)

Tagovailoa $23.2M, UFA 2025, age 27 (5th year option value)

Lawrence $11.7M, UFA 2026, age 27

Wilson $35.4M, UFA 2029, age 41

Watson $64M, UFA 2027, age 33, (last year can be voided)

Herbert $19.3M, UFA 2030, age 32

 

[Chandler#81]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

Knox and Miller are too new to do anything with this offseason.  Any restructure will kick the can down the road.  White, unless there's an injury settlement, is being assumed to return.  

 

..being ASSUMED to return. A Cornerback with a repaired Achilles in THIS League? I don’t think so. Injury settlement. 
Try to trade Knox -even if we have to throw in a mid/late pick. Tolerate Von for another year.

1 minute ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

AFC QB's w/2024 cap hits & UFA year & age when UFA

 

Allen $47M, UFA 2029, age 33

Mahomes $57.4, UFA 2032, age 39 (last 2 years can be voided)

Jackson $32.4M, UFA 2028, age 33

Borrow $29.7M, UFA 2033, age 37 (last 3 years can be voided)

Tagovailoa $23.2M, UFA 2025, age 27 (5th year option value)

Lawrence $11.7M, UFA 2026, age 27

Wilson $35.4M, UFA 2029, age 41

Watson $64M, UFA 2027, age 33, (last year can be voided)

Herbert $19.3M, UFA 2030, age 32

 

Which Allen at $47M, age 33 are you referring to?

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Von Miller

Tre White

Dawson Knox

 

In my eyes, you can do one of three things:

 

1) Ride them out, be mediocre because you don't have any cap space to work with, pray to God you get some kind of production out of them

2) Burn them all after this season, eat the same cap ***** sandwich and emerge in a much healthier place in 2025

3) Cut two of three of them, triage-style, still eat the cap ***** sandwich and be better off in 2025

 

Are there any other options out there? I'm happy to hear them.

 

 

Miller is here through next year. There won't be a trade partner, and it'd cost you cap space to release him.

Knox probably is too. I don't know the rules on his roster bonus - if that travels with a trade, maybe you could get a team to be interested him.  Acquiring team basically gets him at 1yr 9.9M and can probably spread that over 2 years?  I still don't know if there's a big market there.  

Tre - its tough to say - there is 6.3M in cap savings.  Assuming you have Benford, Douglas, Elam - Jackson is a UFA.  Knee and Achilles now, its tough to want to do much more of a commitment.  

 

Hines is on there for 5.5 so he's gone for sure.  

Harty saves you about 4M.  Since we don't use him at all i can't imagine why we pick that up.  

Neal saves you 3M.  

Morse saves you 8.5M.  

Poyer would save about 5.5M.  I doubt they go this route unless he becomes a pain again.  Hyde is a UFA.  

Gilliam saves about 2.  Seems like a lot but then you realize that a UDFA gets like 800K and you realize how little it does.  

 

Extending douglas even a year would lower his cap hit.  You can also release him for 0 dead money.  Considering what we gave up to get him i put this at 0% chance if he's healthy.  

Content to let poyers contract play out.  

[boyst]

57 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

But his hit is over $16M so it makes sense to cut him.

i think we can and he would be willing to rework his deal knowing how cautious he was prior. make his deal guaranteed over 2 years at a lower rate with 3rd year a good payout, 4th year voidable and premium with a target goal

[Billl]

5 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

..being ASSUMED to return. A Cornerback with a repaired Achilles in THIS League? I don’t think so. Injury settlement. 
Try to trade Knox -even if we have to throw in a mid/late pick. Tolerate Von for another year.

Why would White take an injury settlement?

[Chandler#81]

Cuz he’s finished.

Just now, Billl said:

Why would White take an injury settlement?

 

[Billl]

1 minute ago, Chandler#81 said:

Cuz he’s finished.

 

He gets paid either way, though.  If his playing days are effectively over, why in the world would he want to take one dime less that’s he’s currently guaranteed?