Boogie traded to Giants

[Beck Water]

4 hours ago, boyst said:

Wgr is hot taking it this Morning trashing Beane

 

by "WGR" can we assume you mean the callers, not the hosts?

 

The same callers who produced this gem?
 

 

[Beck Water]

4 minutes ago, boyst said:

my bone to pick is that where was this criticism at the time these guys were drafted? where was the insight that it was a mistake?

 

it's a hot take because after the fact by a few years anyone can look articulate.

 

Indeed. 

 

There are a couple of Beane patterns that we can see in his drafting.

 

One is, that when he believes we need help at a position, he will often "belt and suspenders" it - instead of going "all in" on one player, he will hedge his bets and acquire several candidates through draft and mid to low tier FA.

 

After the 2020 season, he decided we needed to "affect the QB".   He had to do this with bottom of the round draft position and very limited FA $$ due to Covid.  So #1 (Pick 30) was a shot at a high ceiling, low floor guy - Greg Rousseau, physically talented but what was described as "a concerning lack of functional edge experience"  #2 was a guy who was felt to have potential as a "solid, average starter"
 

National reaction after the Basham draft pick was generally that it was solid

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2021/05/01/national-reactions-media-buffalo-bills-carlos-basham-jr-2021-nfl-draft-greg-rousseau-2/

 

It's 100% revisionist history for people to be all "It was a bad pick from the jump" blah blah.  Maybe some of the guys who are saying that here ( @HappyDays?) have their receipts, but that simply wasn't the general viewpoint at the time.

 

I didn't like it because there are a couple Beane habits that I'm not sure are constructive - one of them is doubling down on present needs, another is going for "high ceiling, low floor" guys who may have a higher bust rate. 

But the Basham pick exactly illustrates why my concern may be incorrect.  Basham was seen at the time as a physically strong and technically sound player who might not be an NFL star, but who was a dependable bet to contribute.  Rousseau was seen as a boom/bust guy. Yet Rousseau showed flashes as a rookie, and Basham never did seem to "get it" in the NFL.  So the whole idea that Beane's "boom or bust" guys may have a higher wash-out rate than "steady eddie" may be flawed.

 

[boyst]

38 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

by "WGR" can we assume you mean the callers, not the hosts?

 

The same callers who produced this gem?
 

 

no. the morning crew (not sure who it is because i don't pay attention) were talking about beane should have some heat on him for some bad drafting.

15 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Indeed. 

 

There are a couple of Beane patterns that we can see in his drafting.

 

One is, that when he believes we need help at a position, he will often "belt and suspenders" it - instead of going "all in" on one player, he will hedge his bets and acquire several candidates through draft and mid to low tier FA.

 

After the 2020 season, he decided we needed to "affect the QB".   He had to do this with bottom of the round draft position and very limited FA $$ due to Covid.  So #1 (Pick 30) was a shot at a high ceiling, low floor guy - Greg Rousseau, physically talented but what was described as "a concerning lack of functional edge experience"  #2 was a guy who was felt to have potential as a "solid, average starter"
 

National reaction after the Basham draft pick was generally that it was solid

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2021/05/01/national-reactions-media-buffalo-bills-carlos-basham-jr-2021-nfl-draft-greg-rousseau-2/

 

It's 100% revisionist history for people to be all "It was a bad pick from the jump" blah blah.  Maybe some of the guys who are saying that here ( @HappyDays?) have their receipts, but that simply wasn't the general viewpoint at the time.

 

I didn't like it because there are a couple Beane habits that I'm not sure are constructive - one of them is doubling down on present needs, another is going for "high ceiling, low floor" guys who may have a higher bust rate. 

But the Basham pick exactly illustrates why my concern may be incorrect.  Basham was seen at the time as a physically strong and technically sound player who might not be an NFL star, but who was a dependable bet to contribute.  Rousseau was seen as a boom/bust guy. Yet Rousseau showed flashes as a rookie, and Basham never did seem to "get it" in the NFL.  So the whole idea that Beane's "boom or bust" guys may have a higher wash-out rate than "steady eddie" may be flawed.

 

i think it was happy at first given the hype but i remember seeing him in WFU games and just being meh. i thought he might be the rare player that has more to offer in the nfl than he really showed in the smaller program of WFU.

 

which is also a bone to pick - wfu is not exactly a place i would get a blue chip player out of - especially since they have really ***** the bed with their top blue chip nfl prospects historically.

[Billl]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yes he could have. Did you read my post?

 

 

What does this even mean? You're saying that drafting Basham instead of Humphrey somehow also led to us drafting Elam? You're all over the place.

I'm saying they used the same strategy two years in a row and got the same result.  When you only use top picks on positions of immediate needs, you limit the pool of players available and tip your hand as to who you're going to choose.  

 

Yes, Morse was a capable player, but he wasn't a star, he made a lot of money, and his age and injury history weren't ideal.  You don't pass up an opportunity to a great player simply because a guy like Morse was on the team.  That's what Beane did, and he ended up taking a lesser player at a position of immediate need.

 

 

[T master]

In a way i hated to see him go but i'm glad that Beane at least got something for him rather than straight up letting him walk by releasing him !

 

A little bit of something is better than a hole lot of nothing !!! 

[HappyDays]

37 minutes ago, Billl said:

I'm saying they used the same strategy two years in a row and got the same result.  When you only use top picks on positions of immediate needs, you limit the pool of players available and tip your hand as to who you're going to choose.  

 

Yes, Morse was a capable player, but he wasn't a star, he made a lot of money, and his age and injury history weren't ideal.  You don't pass up an opportunity to a great player simply because a guy like Morse was on the team.  That's what Beane did, and he ended up taking a lesser player at a position of immediate need.

 

 

 

Basham was not a case of reaching for need. Elam, maybe. With Basham they just flat out misevaluated the player. Beane said after that draft they planned on trading back but had Basham higher on their board than where they picked so they stood pat and took him. It was not an intentional strategy to draft two DEs in a row, it's just how their board fell. The board was wrong, the strategy was not.

 

And it shows how unfamiliar you are with roster building strategy to say that "edge rusher" was a specific immediate need for the Bills that year. Edge rusher is a need for EVERY team EVERY year. Keeping that pipeline young is critically important. You would think that since your team has spent 2 of its last 3 1st round picks on an edge rusher you would understand this, but like I said earlier you seemingly don't understand why your own team has been so successful. It has nothing to do with "drafting BPA over need" like you indicate. Needs change quickly in the NFL. If you have a franchise QB and a punter and a kicker and a long snapper you have exactly 4 positions filled. The rest are almost always fluid and needing to be changed out constantly.

 

Edited August 30, 2023 by HappyDays

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, boyst said:

my bone to pick is that where was this criticism at the time these guys were drafted? where was the insight that it was a mistake?

 

it's a hot take because after the fact by a few years anyone can look articulate.

 

I mean on Boogie, Bernard and Zack Moss mine were right here.

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Basham was not a case of reaching for need. Elam, maybe. With Basham they just flat out misevaluated the player. Beane said after that draft they planned on trading back but had Basham higher on their board than where they picked so they stood pat and took him. It was not an intentional strategy to draft two DEs in a row, it's just how their boars fell.

 

And it shows how unfamiliar you are with roster building strategy to say that "edge rusher" was a specific immediate need for the Bills that year. Edge rusher is a need for EVERY team EVERY year. Keeping that pipeline young is critically important. You would think that since your team has spent 2 of its last 3 1st round picks on an edge rusher you would understand this, but like I said earlier you seemingly don't understand why your own team has been so successful. It has nothing to do with "drafting BPA over need" like you indicate. Needs change quickly in the NFL. If you have a franchise QB and a punter and a kicker and a long snapper you have exactly 4 positions filled. The rest are almost always fluid and needing to be changed out constantly.

 

I largely agree with this. I think Boogie was just a flat out bad evaluation. That said, there were edge needy that year and that bias might well have played in earlier in the process.... you need an edge so you see more potential in guys in that class than was always there.... so their grades end up inflated so they look like BPA when they are not. 

 

Not saying was definitely that... and it was definitely the evaluation not the draft day strategy that was wrong. But I do wonder if even in that need played an indirect part.

[boyst]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I mean on Boogie, Bernard and Zack Moss mine were right here.

 

I largely agree with this. I think Boogie was just a flat out bad evaluation. That said, there were edge needy that year and that bias might well have played in earlier in the process.... you need an edge so you see more potential in guys in that class than was always there.... so their grades end up inflated so they look like BPA when they are not. 

 

Not saying was definitely that... and it was definitely the evaluation not the draft day strategy that was wrong. But I do wonder if even in that need played an indirect part.

What's your take on 2023 class?

[longtimebillsfan]

6 hours ago, HalftimeAdjustment said:

 

In 2025, no less.

I know.   What is the point?

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 8/29/2023 at 10:20 AM, Coach Tuesday said:

 

Last year the Jets drafted two All Pros in Round 1 and the Bills drafted a 4th string corner.  Allen is saving Beane's job right now.

In 2018 the Bills drafted Josh Allen and the Jets drafted a 3rd string QB 3rd overall. 😅

[ColoradoBills]

3 minutes ago, longtimebillsfan said:

I know.   What is the point?

 

The trade saved some cap versus a cut.  He was a bad pick, and no one really wanted to give more.

[longtimebillsfan]

Just now, ColoradoBills said:

 

The trade saved some cap versus a cut.  He was a bad pick, and no one really wanted to give more.

Yea, I am assuming he would not have made the 53 man roster.

[newcam2012]

4 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

The trade saved some cap versus a cut.  He was a bad pick, and no one really wanted to give more.

I guess they cut their ties. I just thought maybe they could have gotten a little more for Boogie. Obviously, they couldn't. 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Beane has been good in round 1. Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Rousseau.... that haul stands with the majority of teams over that period A superstar QB and 3 good defensive pIayers who were effective starters from day 1 of their rookie seasons. I think he has been poor on day 2 largely because he has used those two rounds to fill gaps a lot. And that has led to some misses. If it turns out he missed on Elam I think you can probably put that down to the same root cause. Trying to fill gaps. 

Oliver was not a good pick mof every DT picked after him in the first are better players then he is that to me is a bad pick . Is he a horrible player no! But he ain’t great either just another average player in the league.

 

Edmunds also not that great of a pick I had Leonard and Warner as better players coming out that draft if I had it Beane should’ve as well plus u have to factor in we traded up for him as well so draft capital was involved. 
 

He also basically traded away the pick that lead to Justin Jefferson going to the Vikes yes we received Diggs in that deal but again that was a strong yr for Wrs in the draft and Beane didn’t have the vision to take advantage. 
 

I don’t care for the reason he’s horrible in the 2nd rd . The 2nd rd shouldn’t be for gap fillings if Beane believes that he shouldn’t have a job being a GM on the NFL level. His 3rd rd picks are classic trash as well other the Knox he’s missed horribly in that rd. 
 

Now are these guys u listed complete bust no but there not stars either and please don’t give me that excuse even Beane has about being bad enough to draft at the top of the draft because that’s flat out lies . Baltimore, Pittsburgh have been selecting great players for quite some time drafting at the bottom of the first.  I couldn’t believe Beane spewed that trash after we lost to Cinny mentioning Chase as a high pick and basically trying to back hand the Bengals for there previous records as a bad team knowing full well the best Wrs in the NFL we’re all traded outside the top 10 of the draft JJ @22 , Kupp 4th rd , Tyreek 5th rd, Diggs 5th rd and Antonio Brown i believe was a 6th rd Pk . McBeane ain’t great at nothing but excuses there wasting Josh Allen’s career as we speak . 

[JerseyBills]

snatched his spot. Boogie couldn't come close to this. That closing speed is phenomenal 

4 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Indeed. 

 

There are a couple of Beane patterns that we can see in his drafting.

 

One is, that when he believes we need help at a position, he will often "belt and suspenders" it - instead of going "all in" on one player, he will hedge his bets and acquire several candidates through draft and mid to low tier FA.

 

After the 2020 season, he decided we needed to "affect the QB".   He had to do this with bottom of the round draft position and very limited FA $$ due to Covid.  So #1 (Pick 30) was a shot at a high ceiling, low floor guy - Greg Rousseau, physically talented but what was described as "a concerning lack of functional edge experience"  #2 was a guy who was felt to have potential as a "solid, average starter"
 

National reaction after the Basham draft pick was generally that it was solid

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2021/05/01/national-reactions-media-buffalo-bills-carlos-basham-jr-2021-nfl-draft-greg-rousseau-2/

 

It's 100% revisionist history for people to be all "It was a bad pick from the jump" blah blah.  Maybe some of the guys who are saying that here ( @HappyDays?) have their receipts, but that simply wasn't the general viewpoint at the time.

 

I didn't like it because there are a couple Beane habits that I'm not sure are constructive - one of them is doubling down on present needs, another is going for "high ceiling, low floor" guys who may have a higher bust rate. 

But the Basham pick exactly illustrates why my concern may be incorrect.  Basham was seen at the time as a physically strong and technically sound player who might not be an NFL star, but who was a dependable bet to contribute.  Rousseau was seen as a boom/bust guy. Yet Rousseau showed flashes as a rookie, and Basham never did seem to "get it" in the NFL.  So the whole idea that Beane's "boom or bust" guys may have a higher wash-out rate than "steady eddie" may be flawed.

 

Agree.

Did the same thing with Brown and Doyle

[Billl]

52 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Basham was not a case of reaching for need. Elam, maybe. With Basham they just flat out misevaluated the player. Beane said after that draft they planned on trading back but had Basham higher on their board than where they picked so they stood pat and took him. It was not an intentional strategy to draft two DEs in a row, it's just how their board fell. The board was wrong, the strategy was not.

 

And it shows how unfamiliar you are with roster building strategy to say that "edge rusher" was a specific immediate need for the Bills that year. Edge rusher is a need for EVERY team EVERY year. Keeping that pipeline young is critically important. You would think that since your team has spent 2 of its last 3 1st round picks on an edge rusher you would understand this, but like I said earlier you seemingly don't understand why your own team has been so successful. It has nothing to do with "drafting BPA over need" like you indicate. Needs change quickly in the NFL. If you have a franchise QB and a punter and a kicker and a long snapper you have exactly 4 positions filled. The rest are almost always fluid and needing to be changed out constantly.

 

Drafting for need is absolutely important.  I never said otherwise.  The issue is understanding what your needs actually are.  You seem to think that something isn't a need until it's an emergency, and I disagree.  

 

Every team always needs to get younger, cheaper, and more talented.  In 2021, Morse was reasonably talented but he was neither young nor cheap.  That constitutes enough of a need that drafting Humphrey would have been a viable option.  If you address your needs wisely, you tend to avoid emergencies.  Drafting Creed to replace Morse would have freed up $10 million a year in salary cap space which could have been allocated to LB.  Instead, Beane is caught in a cycle of constantly trying to plug holes that never would have existed if he'd simply drafted the talented players when they were originally available.

 

 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

In 2018 the Bills drafted Josh Allen and the Jets drafted a 3rd string QB 3rd overall. 😅

 

Add in, in 2021 the Jets drafted another QB 2nd overall...only to give up a bunch of picks for the privilege of paying a 39 yr old vet the big bucks

 

In other words, I agree with you that perhaps the Jets aren't the best example to hold up for exemplary drafting.

 

 

[klos63]

15 hours ago, QCity said:

 

It's not that he was aging, it was his concussion history. He already had 5 concussions by 2020 at a position where there's contact on every play. He's a huge question mark to make it through 17 games.

 

During that 2021 draft I wrote that we had a shot to get Josh his Kent Hull for the rest of his career. Unfortunately, Creed Humphrey went to one of the worst possible destinations for us.

Regarding my aging comment,  I was referencing the posters comment,  calling him aging. 

[jkeerie]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Add in, in 2021 the Jets drafted another QB 2nd overall...only to give up a bunch of picks for the privilege of paying a 39 yr old vet the big bucks

 

In other words, I agree with you that perhaps the Jets aren't the best example to hold up for exemplary drafting.

 

 

I think we also have to take into account where the Bills draft relative to these top ten picks.  The Bills draft in the 20's when many of the "sure fire" picks are long gone.

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Billl said:

You seem to think that something isn't a need until it's an emergency, and I disagree.  

 

You're not comprehending my point at all so I'm going to exit this discussion.

[bobobonators]

10 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

The Creed Humphrey Truthers are howling at the moon…

 

Because it was the correct position to swing for.  If you don’t have a QB there is no other use of a high draft pick.

if only you were that objective with Beane and Co. 

 

The Jets passed on the following players:

Kyle Pitts

Jamarr Chase

Jaylen Waddle

Penei Sewell

Pat Surtain

Devonta Smith

Justin Fields

Micah Parsons

 

All were taken in the following 10 picks. A who’s who of pro bowlers and elite players. 
 

Drafting for position - fitting a square peg in a round hole - at #2 overall is much worse than Beane taking a flyer on a DE in the second round. 

Heck even Mac Jones was there later in the mid 1st. Hes been light years better than Wilson. 
 

My overall point is to maintain objectivity. Since 2019, the Buffalo Bills are 3rd in the NFL in wins. The Jets have been an epic disaster and have been 2nd to last during the same time period. 

 

 

 

[balln]

It was an ominous sign that our 2nd rd pick Basham when we desperately needed juice off the DL was inactive game after game his rookie year

[1997WS6]

On 8/29/2023 at 12:56 PM, SCBills said:

 

They didn't though..

 

So much of a GM/HC success is based off hitting on a QB.  

 

Hit on a QB, and then all of a sudden the owner is willing to spend... build a contender and all of a sudden talented vet FA's are willing to sign for a bit less to play on your team... and so on...

 

If Beane didn't hit on Josh Allen, I highly doubt he or McDermott are still here.   And that's not an indictment on them.. it's just how it works.  

 

It's why Douglas/Salah really need Rodgers to work out, because they already blew it with Zack Wilson, despite all the other strong picks/decisions. 

That is basically the point I was making.  So many want to criticize without looking at the wins.  It also seems many people think other teams don't make draft mistakes.