McBean’s draft history and who we draft at 27

[Sierra Foothills]

Great post! Thanks for doing the research to try to detect patterns in Beane's drafting.

 

2 hours ago, Chaos said:

This is a good analysis, but I don’t think the age strategy has worked out. Teams gain no advantage “developing” young players.  They just lose valuable rookie contract production. Any chance Beane has learned this ?

 

Good point Chaos. Joe Buscaglia had an excellent piece in The Athletic today ruminating about all the Bills draft possibilities. In his discussion of edge rushers Buscaglia asks whether it's possible that Beane has evolved in his drafting philosophies: "But the sneakiest of all the names at No. 27 is Iowa State’s Will McDonald IV, who was outstanding at the Senior Bowl. The Bills reportedly had him in for a late pre-draft visit, and it was a pretty interesting visit because he goes well against what they’ve gone for previously. McDonald is tall with long arms, but he’s only 239 pounds. They also snuck in a 30-visit with Tennessee’s Byron Young, who is also on the smaller side at 250 pounds. It makes you wonder if the Bills’ lack of success at finding a right defensive end with this regime has made them reconsider how they target the position and instead go for smaller and quicker."

 

1 hour ago, Herb Nightly said:

The trend for the NFL (this century,especially, last decade) has been to draft the 21 year olds,so nothing unique about the Bills picking 21 year olds. With the wage scale,there is less incentive to stay in college:  players want to start earning ,so they can get into their second contract earlier and make significantly more money. Your logic is flawed.

 

 

It's not "his logic." It's an attempt to discern patterns in Brandon Beane drafting philosophy. Also you seem not to take into account the NIL money that is becoming more pervasive in college football. Arch Manning has yet to play a down of football and he's already signed to $3.6 million in NIL deals. It's inevitable that there will be players who will make more money as college players than as NFL players. You might re-evaluate your own logic before claiming someone else's is flawed... especially when it's not even "their logic."

 

2 minutes ago, pennstate10 said:

Are you seriously excluding the best WR in the draft due to “lack of production”?

 

I would hope that you realize this glaring error indicates that you’re clueless, thus rendering your entire post worthless. 

 

It's not as worthless as some of the replies.

 

When the OP starts with "We are now going into the 6th draft of the McBeane partnership. In that timeframe they have certainly shown that they have a type of prospect they look for in the first round" do you have difficulty understanding what is written?

 

And if the post is worthless why are you replying to it?

 

 

 

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, pennstate10 said:

But that’s not what you wrote. Here is what you wrote. 
 

“WR

Fit: Jordan Addison

Excludes: JSN (production), Zay Flowers (age), Quentin Johnston (production), Hyatt (production)”

 

I don’t know. When posters write stuff that’s obviously wrong, and then lie about it, that makes me think said poster’s opinions are useless. 
 

 

The only thing clueless in his response was the attempt to answer ill-mannered belligerence with honest decency. Very poor form.

[Sierra Foothills]

15 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I think Hyatt is dynamic and his game speed is great 

 

but 4.40 is not elite anymore … If he ran a 4.30 I would take him 100% at 27

 

The 4.4 makes it tougher in the top 30 with his physicality … 4.4 isn’t elite on the radar anymore 

 

13 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

I'm not a college fan but looking at Hyatt's highlights I thought for sure he'd be sub-4.40. Was shocked to see the second number of his run was not a 3.

Was the competition in the highlights just that slow or what? He looked so fast on the field.

 

There is timed speed and there is game speed. People often make the mistake of placing too much importance on the former and not enough on the latter.

 

9 minutes ago, pennstate10 said:

But that’s not what you wrote. Here is what you wrote. 
 

“WR

Fit: Jordan Addison

Excludes: JSN (production), Zay Flowers (age), Quentin Johnston (production), Hyatt (production)”

 

I don’t know. When posters write stuff that’s obviously wrong, and then lie about it, that makes me think said poster’s opinions are useless. 
 

 

 

Wow. Would you care to clarify exactly what he wrote that was obviously wrong and justifies you acting like a *****?

 

[pennstate10]

10 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

 

There is timed speed and there is game speed. People often make the mistake of placing too much importance on the former and not enough on the latter.

 

 

Wow. Would you care to clarify exactly what he wrote that was obviously wrong and justifies you acting like a *****?

 

Read through the thread. It’s pretty clear. 
 

The very first thing he writes (that JSN is off the board due to lack of production) is blatantly wrong. 
 

So that calls into question everything that follows. 
 

Look at it this way. If you were reading a history of WWII, and the first sentence is “the US entered WWII after the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor”, would you believe anything that followed?

Edited April 26, 2023 by pennstate10
Clarification

[Sierra Foothills]

6 minutes ago, pennstate10 said:

Read through the thread. It’s pretty clear. 

 

If it was clear I wouldn't be asking.

 

Are you afraid of answering the question?

 

What did he write that was "obviously wrong?"

 

[Chicken Boo]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

I've been thinking of him as a second rounder. The Tennessee offense just didn't require much of a route tree from him and the scheme bought him a lot of open space that is harder to come by in the pro game. When you look at the potential, however, it is a high ceiling, so I'm coming around towards thinking maybe he should be a consideration at 27.

 

It doesn't have to be at #27.  I'd just like to see him here with Josh as his QB.

[folz]

3 hours ago, Chaos said:

This is a good analysis, but I don’t think the age strategy has worked out. Teams gain no advantage “developing” young players.  They just lose valuable rookie contract production. Any chance Beane has learned this ?

 

Great thread OP.

 

I wonder if it's rawness rather than age specifically (but obviously, most of the guys who are raw will probably be on the younger side and vice versa...so basically the same thing).

 

But I'm thinking maybe Beane's first round strategy has been to pick players who have elite qualities, but who are still raw---hoping to out draft the pick they have (especially when picking lower in the first round). 

 

Most drafts there seem to be say 3-7 players at the top that appear to be studs; then maybe a second tier somewhere into the teens; and then somewhere into the 20s are the other guys who have a 1st round grade. Does Beane try to pick a player that he thinks could be in the tier above (athletically or whatever) and with the right coaching/more experience get him there, to try and maximize the team's 1st round draft position?

 

2018 pick 7 Josh Allen (elite arm and competitiveness/definition of raw)

2018 pick 16 Tremaine Edmunds (elite size/so young)

2019 pick 9 Ed Oliver (elite explosion off the ball/needed to switch from NT/1-tech to 3-tech due to size)

2021 pick 30 Greg Rousseau (elite size, length/only 1 year college ball/sat out COVID year)

2022 pick 23 Kaiir Elam (high-end size-length-speed ratio, NFL lineage/needed to become more proficient in zone coverage)

 

And if that's the case, will he stick with that philosophy, as Chaos asked? Allen was obviously a home run (flashed early and often, fully bloomed in third year), Tremaine (took too long to develop), Oliver (transitioned to new position fairly well in 1-2 years, has been solid and has flashed, but has not quite reached his draft position, let alone exceed it), Greg (has flashed a bit, hoping he starts to fully blossom in year 3), Elam (tough transition year as a rookie---will see if he starts putting it together in year two).

 

If that is Beane's strategy, I'm not necessarily opposed to it, especially when drafting in the back of the round (swing for the fences), but as Chaos posted, there is the danger that we get lower quality of play as we groom players to eventually move on as they get good. But, otherwise, I guess it just comes down to do the hits/home runs outweigh the guys that develop too slowly (or never reach that potential). Not sure the sample size is big enough yet to make a true determination, but will be interesting to see if the FO thinking has changed at all going into the year.

 

Edited April 26, 2023 by folz

[NastyNateSoldiers]

4 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

The ceiling is so much higher on Jalin Hyatt.  I hope Beane goes for the explosive guy this team desperately needs.  

We’ll be lucky if Hyatt becomes a Will Fuller type but I don’t see it with him . He’s a one trick pony I believe he will struggle badly on next level. 

2 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

Great post! Thanks for doing the research to try to detect patterns in Beane's drafting.

 

 

Good point Chaos. Joe Buscaglia had an excellent piece in The Athletic today ruminating about all the Bills draft possibilities. In his discussion of edge rushers Buscaglia asks whether it's possible that Beane has evolved in his drafting philosophies: "But the sneakiest of all the names at No. 27 is Iowa State’s Will McDonald IV, who was outstanding at the Senior Bowl. The Bills reportedly had him in for a late pre-draft visit, and it was a pretty interesting visit because he goes well against what they’ve gone for previously. McDonald is tall with long arms, but he’s only 239 pounds. They also snuck in a 30-visit with Tennessee’s Byron Young, who is also on the smaller side at 250 pounds. It makes you wonder if the Bills’ lack of success at finding a right defensive end with this regime has made them reconsider how they target the position and instead go for smaller and quicker."

 

 

It's not "his logic." It's an attempt to discern patterns in Brandon Beane drafting philosophy. Also you seem not to take into account the NIL money that is becoming more pervasive in college football. Arch Manning has yet to play a down of football and he's already signed to $3.6 million in NIL deals. It's inevitable that there will be players who will make more money as college players than as NFL players. You might re-evaluate your own logic before claiming someone else's is flawed... especially when it's not even "their logic."

 

 

It's not as worthless as some of the replies.

 

When the OP starts with "We are now going into the 6th draft of the McBeane partnership. In that timeframe they have certainly shown that they have a type of prospect they look for in the first round" do you have difficulty understanding what is written?

 

And if the post is worthless why are you replying to it?

 

 

 

I would love the Will McDonald pick this kid got some serious potential. He’s battle tested to he played the 5tech at 230lbs was doubled on a consistent basis and still was very good . 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

So I’m very shocked he did not run sub 4.4

 

As someone who’s played coached and scouted for 30 years… I have a pretty good eye for 40s

 

I can see the difference between a 4.44 and a 4.49 pretty well… I could tell lavishka shenault a few years ago was a 4.5+ guy but since he ran by people everybody thought he must be 4.4s or 4.3s… it’s east to see he’s not 

 

now I pegged Hyatt as a 4.35 guy and a 4.40 is very surprising …. But runners have bad days … and his gait at 30 yards is perfect 

 

no wasted movement … I’m just bummed he probably had a bad day

 

Yea he definitely ran slower than I expected as well. I'd consider him at #27 depending on the board. 

6 hours ago, LEBills said:

We are now going into the 6th draft of the McBeane partnership. In that timeframe they have certainly shown that they have a type of prospect they look for in the first round.

 

Since 2018, every first draft pick has:

1. Been 21 years old or younger

2. Had two years of solid college production (Rousseau is the one exception but Covid complicated this)

3. Had clean medicals

4. Had a top 30 visit. We do not have all visits reported so this will not disqualify for this exercise.

 

With these parameters, we can make a good guess of who Beane is targeting. We will break it down position by position. I will not be considering players like Jalen Carter, Bijon Robinson or Paris Johnson who are basically guaranteed to be gone.
 

WR

Fit: Jordan Addison

Excludes: JSN (production), Zay Flowers (age), Quentin Johnston (production), Hyatt (production)

 

TE

Fit: Michael Mayer

Excludes: Dalton Kincaid (medical, age), Darnell Washington (medical)

 

OT

Fit: Anton Harrison

Excludes: Matt Bergeron (age), Darnell Wright (production - he was awful in 2021 at LT)

 

LB

Fit: Trenton Simpson

Excludes: Jack Campbell (age), Drew Sanders (production)

 

DL

Mazi Smith

Myles Murphy

Excludes: Bryan Bresee (medical), Calijah Kancey (age), Nolan Smith (age), Will McDonald (age), Keion White (age)

 

Final Board

1. Jordan Addison (top 30 visit confirmed)

Addison has it all. Just turned 21. Two years of production at two different schools. Can play in the slot or out wide. McDermott is close with Pitt coach Narduzzi. Clear role immediately in the offense. And a confirmed 30 visit. If he is there, I think that is guaranteed to be the pick.

 

2. Mazi Smith (top 30 visit confirmed)

Though not my favorite pick, Beane was very honest in his pre draft presser that you are looking for someone who can contribute year 1 and become a starter by year 2. He also admitted that DT is a position where investments need to be made. Finally, he saw how our run defense nosedived against the Bengals with Jones out. It won’t be flashy pick but one Beane will justify.

 

3. Anton Harrison (top 30 reported by walterfootball but no one else)

I think the Bills feel they can upgrade at Tackle but don’t need to with Brown. This pick would create a winner take all, loser to the swing tackle position battle between Harrison and Brown. In 2 years he would be a successor to Dawkins.

 

4. Trenton Simpson

MLB is the most obvious hole in the team, but I’m just not sure the Bills see it as a must fill. I think they think someone will be available round 2 and so are ok waiting.

 

5. Myles Murphy

Murphy is a tough player to figure out. Some people have him as a top 15 pick, some think he may fall out of the first round. If he does fall to this position, there is a good chance he is the pick but he may get nowhere close to us

 

6. Michael Mayer

I just don’t think the Bills are going TE in round 1. A rd2 or 3 player seems more likely.

 

 

Awesome post. I think a lot of it makes sense. This regime definitely has patterns in who and how they draft. I think you are probably pretty close.

[LEBills]

4 hours ago, folz said:

 

Great thread OP.

 

I wonder if it's rawness rather than age specifically (but obviously, most of the guys who are raw will probably be on the younger side and vice versa...so basically the same thing).

 

But I'm thinking maybe Beane's first round strategy has been to pick players who have elite qualities, but who are still raw---hoping to out draft the pick they have (especially when picking lower in the first round). 

 

Most drafts there seem to be say 3-7 players at the top that appear to be studs; then maybe a second tier somewhere into the teens; and then somewhere into the 20s are the other guys who have a 1st round grade. Does Beane try to pick a player that he thinks could be in the tier above (athletically or whatever) and with the right coaching/more experience get him there, to try and maximize the team's 1st round draft position?

 

2018 pick 7 Josh Allen (elite arm and competitiveness/definition of raw)

2018 pick 16 Tremaine Edmunds (elite size/so young)

2019 pick 9 Ed Oliver (elite explosion off the ball/needed to switch from NT/1-tech to 3-tech due to size)

2021 pick 30 Greg Rousseau (elite size, length/only 1 year college ball/sat out COVID year)

2022 pick 23 Kaiir Elam (high-end size-length-speed ratio, NFL lineage/needed to become more proficient in zone coverage)

 

And if that's the case, will he stick with that philosophy, as Chaos asked? Allen was obviously a home run (flashed early and often, fully bloomed in third year), Tremaine (took too long to develop), Oliver (transitioned to new position fairly well in 1-2 years, has been solid and has flashed, but has not quite reached his draft position, let alone exceed it), Greg (has flashed a bit, hoping he starts to fully blossom in year 3), Elam (tough transition year as a rookie---will see if he starts putting it together in year two).

 

If that is Beane's strategy, I'm not necessarily opposed to it, especially when drafting in the back of the round (swing for the fences), but as Chaos posted, there is the danger that we get lower quality of play as we groom players to eventually move on as they get good. But, otherwise, I guess it just comes down to do the hits/home runs outweigh the guys that develop too slowly (or never reach that potential). Not sure the sample size is big enough yet to make a true determination, but will be interesting to see if the FO thinking has changed at all going into the year.

 

These are all great questions.

 

I think I may have missed the mark on describing the criteria a bit as many responses question using 21 as a cutoff and how sticky that will be going forward.

 

I think it may have been better to combine criteria 1 and 2: being 21 with two years of production. It makes sense that McBeane would like that type of prospect. In that scenario, the player would have started producing by their age 19 season in college. That means they were better, earlier in their career than most of their peers. Which to your point, probably means they have an elite trait. And as they age and fill out, they should have room to develop further than say a 23 year old who was dominating 21 year olds.

 

Now, McBeane could change their strategy at anytime looking for more immediate impact with players closer to their developmental ceiling. Based on his pre-draft presser, it seemed like he was still very much in that “draft, fill a role day 1, and develop into a starter by year two” mentality which is why I have Mazi Smith so high on the list. 
 

For now, this is just a prediction based on trends I have seen. It is not a guarantee and could be far off as the roster is changing, getting older and more expensive which may force Beane to reflect on and change the type of player he is looking to draft early

[Chicken Boo]

4 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

We’ll be lucky if Hyatt becomes a Will Fuller type but I don’t see it with him . He’s a one trick pony I believe he will struggle badly on next level. 

 

Anything is possible, I guess, but I think people are selling him short on this "one trick pony" stuff.  He just happens to have blazing speed and Tennessee used that to their advantage.

 

Hyatt didn't win the Biletnikoff award for nothing.  

 

[CapeBreton]

10 hours ago, LEBills said:

Since 2018, every first draft pick has:

1. Been 21 years old or younger

2. Had two years of solid college production (Rousseau is the one exception but Covid complicated this)

3. Had clean medicals

4. Had a top 30 visit. We do not have all visits reported so this will not disqualify for this exercise.

 

LB

Fit: Trenton Simpson

Excludes: Jack Campbell (age), Drew Sanders (production)

 

Final Board

 

4. Trenton Simpson

MLB is the most obvious hole in the team, but I’m just not sure the Bills see it as a must fill. I think they think someone will be available round 2 and so are ok waiting.

 

 

 

Excellent post, but I don't believe the Bills had a top 30 visit/private workout with any LBs (which is very fishy). I know they had scouts at many Clemson games (per Dean Kindig) but haven't heard of any interviews with Trenton Simpson. I remember seeing they've had contact with Jack Campbell though. 

[mjt328]

Based on my observations of how the Bills conduct their pre-draft process, I also believe the signs are pointing towards us targeting Wide Receiver early.  Specifically a WR that can rotate between outside and the slot.

 

Although the Top-30 Visits aren't a dead give-away, they do tip our hand towards what positions we are considering in early rounds.  The Bills have met with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers and Jalin Hyatt.  Pretty much every 1st-Round WR prospect with the exception of Quentin Johnson (who only projects to the outside).  

 

Combine that with their interest in Odell Beckham mid/late last year... them eventually being forced to re-sign Cole Beasley and John Brown when ODB wasn't going to be ready... and their clear interest in DeAndre Hopkins this offseason... I would say WR is clearly a position they are looking to upgrade.  Deonte Hardy is more of an Isaiah McKenzie replacement.  Trent Sherfield is more of the Jake Kumerow replacement.  

 

Now if another higher ranked prospect falls unexpectedly (such as OT Darnell Wright), they may go in a different direction.  But I do believe that if we stay put at #27, Beane is expecting to take one of the four WRs listed above.

 

[LEBills]

4 minutes ago, CapeBreton said:

 

Excellent post, but I don't believe the Bills had a top 30 visit/private workout with any LBs (which is very fishy). I know they had scouts at many Clemson games (per Dean Kindig) but haven't heard of any interviews with Trenton Simpson. I remember seeing they've had contact with Jack Campbell though. 

Yes, We are still missing (I think 6) pre draft visits which Simpson may have been one so I couldn’t definitively rule him out. I agree with you though the chance of him being the pick at 27 is lower because it doesn’t seem the Bills are targeting any LB with their visits.

[CapeBreton]

25 minutes ago, LEBills said:

Yes, We are still missing (I think 6) pre draft visits which Simpson may have been one so I couldn’t definitively rule him out. I agree with you though the chance of him being the pick at 27 is lower because it doesn’t seem the Bills are targeting any LB with their visits.

 

I agree that Simpson is more of a Beane pick than Campbell though, Simpson is a potential home run pick while Campbell is the safer selection.

[GunnerBill]

36 minutes ago, CapeBreton said:

 

Excellent post, but I don't believe the Bills had a top 30 visit/private workout with any LBs (which is very fishy). I know they had scouts at many Clemson games (per Dean Kindig) but haven't heard of any interviews with Trenton Simpson. I remember seeing they've had contact with Jack Campbell though. 

 

They have had private workouts with Simpson and Sanders I believe. Not top 30s though. 

[Mr. WEO]

if Beane would really pass on a guy because he just turned 22......

[CaptnCoke11]

7 minutes ago, CapeBreton said:

 

I agree that Simpson is more of a Beane pick than Campbell though, Simpson is a potential home run pick while Campbell is the safer selection.

Simpson would be an absolute awful fit at MLBer.  He’s a weak side player 

[JohnNord]

11 hours ago, LEBills said:

We are now going into the 6th draft of the McBeane partnership. In that timeframe they have certainly shown that they have a type of prospect they look for in the first round.

 

Since 2018, every first draft pick has:

1. Been 21 years old or younger

2. Had two years of solid college production (Rousseau is the one exception but Covid complicated this)

3. Had clean medicals

4. Had a top 30 visit. We do not have all visits reported so this will not disqualify for this exercise.

 

With these parameters, we can make a good guess of who Beane is targeting. We will break it down position by position. I will not be considering players like Jalen Carter, Bijon Robinson or Paris Johnson who are basically guaranteed to be gone.
 

WR

Fit: Jordan Addison

Excludes: JSN (production), Zay Flowers (age), Quentin Johnston (production), Hyatt (production)

 

TE

Fit: Michael Mayer

Excludes: Dalton Kincaid (medical, age), Darnell Washington (medical)

 

OT

Fit: Anton Harrison

Excludes: Matt Bergeron (age), Darnell Wright (production - he was awful in 2021 at LT)

 

LB

Fit: Trenton Simpson

Excludes: Jack Campbell (age), Drew Sanders (production)

 

DL

Mazi Smith

Myles Murphy

Excludes: Bryan Bresee (medical), Calijah Kancey (age), Nolan Smith (age), Will McDonald (age), Keion White (age)

 

Final Board

1. Jordan Addison (top 30 visit confirmed)

Addison has it all. Just turned 21. Two years of production at two different schools. Can play in the slot or out wide. McDermott is close with Pitt coach Narduzzi. Clear role immediately in the offense. And a confirmed 30 visit. If he is there, I think that is guaranteed to be the pick.

 

2. Mazi Smith (top 30 visit confirmed)

Though not my favorite pick, Beane was very honest in his pre draft presser that you are looking for someone who can contribute year 1 and become a starter by year 2. He also admitted that DT is a position where investments need to be made. Finally, he saw how our run defense nosedived against the Bengals with Jones out. It won’t be flashy pick but one Beane will justify.

 

3. Anton Harrison (top 30 reported by walterfootball but no one else)

I think the Bills feel they can upgrade at Tackle but don’t need to with Brown. This pick would create a winner take all, loser to the swing tackle position battle between Harrison and Brown. In 2 years he would be a successor to Dawkins.

 

4. Trenton Simpson

MLB is the most obvious hole in the team, but I’m just not sure the Bills see it as a must fill. I think they think someone will be available round 2 and so are ok waiting.

 

5. Myles Murphy

Murphy is a tough player to figure out. Some people have him as a top 15 pick, some think he may fall out of the first round. If he does fall to this position, there is a good chance he is the pick but he may get nowhere close to us

 

6. Michael Mayer

I just don’t think the Bills are going TE in round 1. A rd2 or 3 player seems more likely.

 

All of this makes a lot of sense.  But when you look at the return from the first and second round picks over the years it makes you wonder if the Bills take a different approach and swings for someone who step in and contribute rather than players like Rosseau and Elam who were more raw talents with a lot of upside

[LEBills]

1 minute ago, JohnNord said:

All of this makes a lot of sense.  But when you look at the return from the first and second round picks over the years it makes you wonder if the Bills take a different approach and swings for someone who step in and contribute rather than players like Rosseau and Elam who were more raw talents with a lot of upside

That definitely could happen! Beane is a smart guy and knows his drafts have been criticized lately and a new approach may yield different results. I’m going to guess we stick with the same strategy though, because he parroted the get a guy who can contribute year one and develop into a starter year 2 mindset at his pre draft presser. 

[NoSaint]

12 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I'm pretty sure that this is the 25th consecutive year that Bills fans on TSW feel that the Bills are in an "awkward spot" in round 1.

it’s just so hard to predict drafting those guys slotted above us 

[BillsVet]

12 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

I'm pretty sure that this is the 25th consecutive year that Bills fans on TSW feel that the Bills are in an "awkward spot" in round 1.

 

The chronic worriers group on TBD has significantly grown though in that time.  I've wanted to start a thread on  the things that keeps me up at night like:

Who will be the 3rd string TE?  And, how they'll round out the ST unit?  Or, will McD's personal assistant be up to supporting the HC now that he's wearing the DC hat?

 

I'm worried.  Really worried. 

 

Edited April 26, 2023 by BillsVet

[RyanC883]

14 hours ago, LEBills said:

We are now going into the 6th draft of the McBeane partnership. In that timeframe they have certainly shown that they have a type of prospect they look for in the first round.

 

Since 2018, every first draft pick has:

1. Been 21 years old or younger

2. Had two years of solid college production (Rousseau is the one exception but Covid complicated this)

3. Had clean medicals

4. Had a top 30 visit. We do not have all visits reported so this will not disqualify for this exercise.

 

With these parameters, we can make a good guess of who Beane is targeting. We will break it down position by position. I will not be considering players like Jalen Carter, Bijon Robinson or Paris Johnson who are basically guaranteed to be gone.
 

WR

Fit: Jordan Addison

Excludes: JSN (production), Zay Flowers (age), Quentin Johnston (production), Hyatt (production)

 

TE

Fit: Michael Mayer

Excludes: Dalton Kincaid (medical, age), Darnell Washington (medical)

 

OT

Fit: Anton Harrison

Excludes: Matt Bergeron (age), Darnell Wright (production - he was awful in 2021 at LT)

 

LB

Fit: Trenton Simpson

Excludes: Jack Campbell (age), Drew Sanders (production)

 

DL

Mazi Smith

Myles Murphy

Excludes: Bryan Bresee (medical), Calijah Kancey (age), Nolan Smith (age), Will McDonald (age), Keion White (age)

 

Final Board

1. Jordan Addison (top 30 visit confirmed)

Addison has it all. Just turned 21. Two years of production at two different schools. Can play in the slot or out wide. McDermott is close with Pitt coach Narduzzi. Clear role immediately in the offense. And a confirmed 30 visit. If he is there, I think that is guaranteed to be the pick.

 

2. Mazi Smith (top 30 visit confirmed)

Though not my favorite pick, Beane was very honest in his pre draft presser that you are looking for someone who can contribute year 1 and become a starter by year 2. He also admitted that DT is a position where investments need to be made. Finally, he saw how our run defense nosedived against the Bengals with Jones out. It won’t be flashy pick but one Beane will justify.

 

3. Anton Harrison (top 30 reported by walterfootball but no one else)

I think the Bills feel they can upgrade at Tackle but don’t need to with Brown. This pick would create a winner take all, loser to the swing tackle position battle between Harrison and Brown. In 2 years he would be a successor to Dawkins.

 

4. Trenton Simpson

MLB is the most obvious hole in the team, but I’m just not sure the Bills see it as a must fill. I think they think someone will be available round 2 and so are ok waiting.

 

5. Myles Murphy

Murphy is a tough player to figure out. Some people have him as a top 15 pick, some think he may fall out of the first round. If he does fall to this position, there is a good chance he is the pick but he may get nowhere close to us

 

6. Michael Mayer

I just don’t think the Bills are going TE in round 1. A rd2 or 3 player seems more likely.

 

 

really don't like anyone beyond Addison at that pick from this list (perhaps Harrison).  Addison would be the pick for all the reasons you mentioned.  He's ready to go Day 1 and is really another WR1.  Great pick. 

Harrison is okay, but I'd go with Wright over him.  Given your simulation, I'd def want one of them here, however, if Addison is gone.  

 

Mazi Smith: we are in win-now mode, Smith likely does not help much next year, or eventually in future years.  But this does seem like the classic Bean over-reach..  

 

Simpson: pass.  LB is a hole, again, we need offensive playmakers.  As you said, there is likely someone in the 2 or even later rounds.  The guy we draft won't need to start.  

 

Murphy: awful pick.  Way too inconsistent.  

 

Mayer: would be okay with this, but only if the WRs, and OTs are gone.  He's a great run blocker and would enable Josh to have dump-off passes.  But really, I'd prefer an IOL like Avila or Tippman here over a TE in a deep TE class.  

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

 

The chronic worriers group on TBD has significantly grown though in that time.  I've wanted to start a thread on  the things that keeps me up at night like:

Who will be the 3rd string TE?  And, how they'll round out the ST unit?  Or, will McD's personal assistant be up to supporting the HC now that he's wearing the DC hat?

 

I'm worried.  Really worried. 

 

 

 

Draft season is the worst for worrying about things that don't matter.   Runnin' bax season is a hard watch.   And mockers patching every perceived hole on the roster by applying a pick number to a position that expresses their urgency..........as if that matters if the talent isn't there at that spot.

[RyanC883]

3 hours ago, JohnNord said:

All of this makes a lot of sense.  But when you look at the return from the first and second round picks over the years it makes you wonder if the Bills take a different approach and swings for someone who step in and contribute rather than players like Rosseau and Elam who were more raw talents with a lot of upside

 

i hope so.  The current draft picks in Rd. 1 (outside of Allen) have been underwhelming.  

[ticketssince61]

16 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

I recently read an analysis of younger vs older draft picks. There did seem to be something to taking the younger prospects - even in the early seasons after being drafted. It wasn’t so much that their production was off the charts great so much as the older prospects did relatively poorly overall. Even the best GMs have a hit rate below 50%. 

 

Probably because the best players are the ones who leave early and don't need another year to prove themselves

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, ticketssince61 said:

 

Probably because the best players are the ones who leave early and don't need another year to prove themselves

Yes. That’s a concise way of putting it. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

19 hours ago, LEBills said:

We are now going into the 6th draft of the McBeane partnership. In that timeframe they have certainly shown that they have a type of prospect they look for in the first round.

 

Since 2018, every first draft pick has:

1. Been 21 years old or younger

2. Had two years of solid college production (Rousseau is the one exception but Covid complicated this)

3. Had clean medicals

4. Had a top 30 visit. We do not have all visits reported so this will not disqualify for this exercise.

 

With these parameters, we can make a good guess of who Beane is targeting. We will break it down position by position. I will not be considering players like Jalen Carter, Bijon Robinson or Paris Johnson who are basically guaranteed to be gone.
 

WR

Fit: Jordan Addison

Excludes: JSN (production), Zay Flowers (age), Quentin Johnston (production), Hyatt (production)

 

TE

Fit: Michael Mayer

Excludes: Dalton Kincaid (medical, age), Darnell Washington (medical)

 

OT

Fit: Anton Harrison

Excludes: Matt Bergeron (age), Darnell Wright (production - he was awful in 2021 at LT)

 

LB

Fit: Trenton Simpson

Excludes: Jack Campbell (age), Drew Sanders (production)

 

DL

Mazi Smith

Myles Murphy

Excludes: Bryan Bresee (medical), Calijah Kancey (age), Nolan Smith (age), Will McDonald (age), Keion White (age)

 

Final Board

1. Jordan Addison (top 30 visit confirmed)

Addison has it all. Just turned 21. Two years of production at two different schools. Can play in the slot or out wide. McDermott is close with Pitt coach Narduzzi. Clear role immediately in the offense. And a confirmed 30 visit. If he is there, I think that is guaranteed to be the pick.

 

2. Mazi Smith (top 30 visit confirmed)

Though not my favorite pick, Beane was very honest in his pre draft presser that you are looking for someone who can contribute year 1 and become a starter by year 2. He also admitted that DT is a position where investments need to be made. Finally, he saw how our run defense nosedived against the Bengals with Jones out. It won’t be flashy pick but one Beane will justify.

 

3. Anton Harrison (top 30 reported by walterfootball but no one else)

I think the Bills feel they can upgrade at Tackle but don’t need to with Brown. This pick would create a winner take all, loser to the swing tackle position battle between Harrison and Brown. In 2 years he would be a successor to Dawkins.

 

4. Trenton Simpson

MLB is the most obvious hole in the team, but I’m just not sure the Bills see it as a must fill. I think they think someone will be available round 2 and so are ok waiting.

 

5. Myles Murphy

Murphy is a tough player to figure out. Some people have him as a top 15 pick, some think he may fall out of the first round. If he does fall to this position, there is a good chance he is the pick but he may get nowhere close to us

 

6. Michael Mayer

I just don’t think the Bills are going TE in round 1. A rd2 or 3 player seems more likely.

 

Sound logic, thanks for posting. 

 

This is an ugly final list though. 

 

 

[Sierra Foothills]

To the OP, from The Athletic and addressing our earlier speculation as to whether Beane might break from previous ground rules:

 

Kincaid bucks a pretty big trend with the Bills’ first-round pick

 

"Since Beane’s first draft in 2018, the Bills have followed a similar path on all their first-round picks. They primarily swing for the fences on a high-potential player and usually veer young to match up the player’s prime with having ample acclimation time to the speed and strength of the NFL. With all Beane’s first-round picks, including Josh Allen, Tremaine Edmunds, Ed Oliver, Greg Rousseau and Kaiir Elam, their average age at the draft was just under 21 years old.

However, that is very much not Kincaid. He’s over halfway from 23 to 24 years old, hitting that birthday in mid-October, and a full 2 1/2 years older than the Bills’ usual lean with their top selection under Beane. It’s not necessarily a damning factor to the Bills if Kincaid has the talent worthy of the first-round pick, but Kincaid’s journey to the NFL took a lot longer than most of his peers in the 2023 draft. It reduces the long-term nature of the selection and means Kincaid will be in his “prime” pretty quickly into his NFL career. However, tight end is one of the weirdest positions in the NFL to scout and get right in a big way, so the usual age considerations at other spots may not carry as much weight. At the very least, it’s a trend-busting move by Beane. Kincaid will enter his age-28 season when Knox’s contract extension expires in the 2027 offseason."