Drafting Has Been A Problem For Decades

[Royale with Cheese]

4 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Philly had already drafted a 1st round WR and then traded for another elite WR. Cincinnati has 2 elite WRs, and Mahomes has Kelce and decent supporting players. 

If Buffalo wants to compete against Philly, Cinci, and KC , they need another elite offensive weapon. 

 

There aren’t many elite WRs on the trade market.  Diggs + Hopkins is unstoppable. Then draft Hyatt to be WR3. 

You are very confusing.  You literally just said this team is good enough to go 10-7 without Allen and Diggs.  But with Allen and Diggs, we are just a few games better.  

[Nextmanup]

On 3/8/2023 at 10:05 PM, JoPoy88 said:

Because the draft is a crapshoot. Always has been. It ain’t that sinister. Sometimes you luck out and get Tom Brady in the 6th. Sometimes you draft Mike Williams. 

It's not supposed to be a "crap shoot."  We spend a huge amount of money, as do all teams, running a huge scouting department.  They are supposed to be better than throwing darts at a board, but they're not.

 

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

On 3/8/2023 at 9:22 PM, IronMaidenBills said:

Over the years we’ve seen other teams draft late rounders and turn them into HOFs or trade them for 1-3rd round picks. I can hardly think of anyone we have drafted that we ended up flipping for a draft capital gain. 
Diggs was a 5th rounder and traded for a 1st. Why can’t we have nice things like that? 
Instead we draft 1-2nd round players and trade them for peanuts. The list is extensive. It’s primarily why we have never won a super bowl. Probably the #1 reason. If it wasn’t for Allen, we’d be in for a load of hurt. 

they could trade Allen for more than it cost to draft him. Would that break the streak? 

[Milanos Milano]

31 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

You are very confusing.  You literally just said this team is good enough to go 10-7 without Allen and Diggs.  But with Allen and Diggs, we are just a few games better.  

 

We are missing a key piece. I think I’m more frustrated than anything. I know we are close, and like Diggs, just kind of just agitated by it all. 

 

If we go draft Hyatt and a bunch of Olinemen and get a 1B to pair with Diggs, we are super bowl champs. 

 

Diggs

Hopkins

Hyatt

Davis

Shakir

 

Is a super bowl winning roster. 

 

We just need something to get over the hump. 

14 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

they could trade Allen for more than it cost to draft him. Would that break the streak? 

 

I feel like an elite QB is one of those positions that should never be traded until the very end of his career. Once you begin to feel like Allen can’t win a super bowl, no matter who his supporting cast is, is when we should start talking about trading him away for a 1st or more. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

22 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 - I haven't thought any of their picks were bad choices. 

 

 

 

Fromm in the 5th round looks bad to me. But I guess that was before Allen’s breakout 2020 season. I’m retrospect would like to have that one back not just because Fromm sucks but because Allen panned out. 
 

Don’t think Beane wastes a 5th on a QB if he knows without a doubt Allen is the dude.

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, Saint Doug said:

I agree with the OP. For example, to bolster his point, back in the 2000 draft, we wasted a bunch of draft picks. Instead of Leif Larsen, we could’ve picked Tom Brady at pick 194. Who ever heard of a Viking playing DT? What were we doing???? 

23 years ago

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 3/8/2023 at 7:28 PM, 78thealltimegreat said:

The Bills top picks in recent years have been hit and miss. Beanes sweet spot has been in the 3-4-5 rounds where he’s gotten the Dawson Knox, Gabe Davis, Dane Jackson’s of the world.

 

Those are not exactly ringing endorsements of success.
 

You’d like at least one of your mid round picks over a 5 year period to breakout into a top 5 player at their position or top 10 at the least. Would not say either of those three are top 5 or top 10. 

 

The one that actually may be top 5 was Wyatt Teller who Beane let get away. 

 

Tarron Johnson, 4th round 2018 draft, has a case for top 5 if we are talking slot corner as their own position. 
 

Another issue is a lack of valuable draft picks under the Beane era. In five drafts, 9 picks in founds 1-2 and 14 picks in rounds 3-5 when the league average would be 10 and 15 respectively over a five year span. 
 

In essence the Bills are short two draft picks early- mid round draft picks. How would the roster look if instead of being short two draft picks in the first five rounds, the Bills were +2 draft picks over league average? That would be 4 more rounds 1-5 picks than they have. 

[BillsFanForever19]

4 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Fromm in the 5th round looks bad to me. But I guess that was before Allen’s breakout 2020 season. I’m retrospect would like to have that one back not just because Fromm sucks but because Allen panned out. 
 

Don’t think Beane wastes a 5th on a QB if he knows without a doubt Allen is the dude.

 

I meant I didn't think they were bad selections when they were selected.

 

Fromm was considered an absolute steal in the 5th Round. Pre-Draft he was talked about as a possible 2nd Round Pick. Obviously, it didn't work out. But for the better part of 3 Rounds people were asking "when is Jake Fromm coming off the board?"

 

Obviously, it didn't work out, even in the Backup role. But in 2020 when we just had Josh and Barkley backing him up - a late 5th on a guy who was considered an immense value pick and could have provided insurance if Josh were to get hurt and in turn become possible trade bait wasn't a bad selection, in the moment.

Edited March 10, 2023 by BillsFanForever19

[TC in St. Louis]

I can't read all the negativity.  We have had a great run since Beane came in.  The team, like all others, has made bad picks.  And they've made good picks.  The reason KC keeps winning is Mahomes.  The reason we are winning is Allen.  How'd you like to be a Bears fan?  They traded up, for no good reason, to take Mitch Trubisky.  They passed on Mahomes (as did several other teams) and DeShaun Watson.  How bout Cleveland and the Jets, who could've taken Josh?  Hell, I think we took a speedy guy from North Carolina State instead of Russell Wilson.  We chose Torrell Troup one pick ahead of Gronk.  

 

Mistakes are made.  

 

 

[Milanos Milano]

18 minutes ago, TC in St. Louis said:

I can't read all the negativity.  We have had a great run since Beane came in.  The team, like all others, has made bad picks.  And they've made good picks.  The reason KC keeps winning is Mahomes.  The reason we are winning is Allen.  How'd you like to be a Bears fan?  They traded up, for no good reason, to take Mitch Trubisky.  They passed on Mahomes (as did several other teams) and DeShaun Watson.  How bout Cleveland and the Jets, who could've taken Josh?  Hell, I think we took a speedy guy from North Carolina State instead of Russell Wilson.  We chose Torrell Troup one pick ahead of Gronk.  

 

Mistakes are made.  

 

 

Beane was brought here to win a super bowl. Nothing else. We want to see the baby. If he can’t deliver soon, we have to find someone that will. 

[Gunsgoodtime]

1 hour ago, TC in St. Louis said:

I can't read all the negativity.  We have had a great run since Beane came in.  The team, like all others, has made bad picks.  And they've made good picks.  The reason KC keeps winning is Mahomes.  The reason we are winning is Allen.  How'd you like to be a Bears fan?  They traded up, for no good reason, to take Mitch Trubisky.  They passed on Mahomes (as did several other teams) and DeShaun Watson.  How bout Cleveland and the Jets, who could've taken Josh?  Hell, I think we took a speedy guy from North Carolina State instead of Russell Wilson.  We chose Torrell Troup one pick ahead of Gronk.  

 

Mistakes are made.  

 

 

More mistakes than normal has been made in recent years.  Take a look at KC, 11 picks this year.  Bengals have a far better team.  The draft picks have been bad, and the FA not a lot better

[Milanos Milano]

6 minutes ago, Gunsgoodtime said:

More mistakes than normal has been made in recent years.  Take a look at KC, 11 picks this year.  Bengals have a far better team.  The draft picks have been bad, and the FA not a lot better

Not only has it been bad in recent years, we have not done Josh any favors outside of Diggs. We desperately need another #1 to pair with Diggs to act as a relief valve and to help free up the offense when Diggs is doubled. Cinci has this, Philly has this, KC kind of has this. We don’t. We don’t have the oline either to help mask it. It’s pretty obvious what we need to do, but I’m not sure Beane will do it. 

[4merper4mer]

5 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Beane was brought here to win a super bowl. Nothing else. We want to see the baby. If he can’t deliver soon, we have to find someone that will. 

Maybe it’ll be you.

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Those are not exactly ringing endorsements of success.
 

You’d like at least one of your mid round picks over a 5 year period to breakout into a top 5 player at their position or top 10 at the least. Would not say either of those three are top 5 or top 10. 

 

Dawson Knox is without DOUBT a top 10 tight end. The issue is the Bills don't throw him the ***** football. The only two tight ends with more touchdowns than Dawson Knox since the the start of 2021 are Travis Kelce and George Kittle. And they are #1 and #2 in the game right now. I think it is hard to put Knox top 5 based on bare yardage, but he is a better blocker than most of the other guys you are going to think of and the lack of numbers is a result of a lack of targets (he is 16th among tight ends in that time period) despite (per NextGen stats) him being top 5 in separation yardage per route in 2022. I have him back half of the top 10.... but the potential is there for Knox to be a top 5 tight end. 

 

It should be job 1A for Dorsey this offseason. Figure out how to use Dawson Knox. Because that is one spot on the offense where I have zero doubt that coaching is holding back talent. I am at least encouraged by the fact that they figured it out a bit down the stretch. 35% of his seasonal yardage came in the final 4 games and he had a touchdown in each of them.

 

EDIT: I have a hunch Beane and McDermott were frustrated by it too... because there was a period in the middle of the year where they'd target Knox in the first 15 at least a couple of times and then get away from him the rest of the way. And that reeks of the HC insisting all week to the OC "you have to use Knox" so him designing and calling some stuff early. But then he couldn't maintain a rhythm of using him. 

Edited March 10, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Royale with Cheese]

8 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

 

We are missing a key piece. I think I’m more frustrated than anything. I know we are close, and like Diggs, just kind of just agitated by it all. 

 

If we go draft Hyatt and a bunch of Olinemen and get a 1B to pair with Diggs, we are super bowl champs. 

 

Diggs

Hopkins

Hyatt

Davis

Shakir

 

Is a super bowl winning roster. 

 

We just need something to get over the hump. 

 

I feel like an elite QB is one of those positions that should never be traded until the very end of his career. Once you begin to feel like Allen can’t win a super bowl, no matter who his supporting cast is, is when we should start talking about trading him away for a 1st or more. 

Geez dude.  In a span of a few pages, you have said:

- This team is nothing without Allen and Diggs.  
- But then this team is good enough to go 10-7 without Allen and Diggs.

- Then once Allen is old and can’t win anymore regardless of a supporting cast…we should trade him for a 1st or more.  Are you under the impression that teams want to give up 1st round picks and more for QB’s who are old and not good anymore?  It would be like trading a 1st round pick for 2019 Eli Manning.

36 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Dawson Knox is without DOUBT a top 10 tight end. The issue is the Bills don't throw him the ***** football. The only two tight ends with more touchdowns than Dawson Knox since the the start of 2021 are Travis Kelce and George Kittle. And they are #1 and #2 in the game right now. I think it is hard to put Knox top 5 based on bare yardage, but he is a better blocker than most of the other guys you are going to think of and the lack of numbers is a result of a lack of target despite (per NextGen stats) him being top 5 in separation yardage per route in 2022. I have him back half of the top 10.... but the potential is there for Knox to be a top 5 tight end. 

 

It should be job 1A for Dorsey this offseason. Figure out how to use Dawson Knox. Because that is one spot on the offense where I have zero doubt that coaching is holding back talent. I am at least encouraged by the fact that they figured it out a bit down the stretch. 35% of his seasonal yardage came in the final 4 games and he had a touchdown in each of them.

 

EDIT: I have a hunch Beane and McDermott were frustrated by it too... because there was a period in the middle of the year where they'd target Knox in the first 15 at least a couple of times and then get away from him the rest of the way. And that reeks of the HC insisting all week to the OC "you have to use Knox" so him designing and calling some stuff early. But then he couldn't maintain a rhythm of using him. 

100% agree on McDermott wanting more attention on Knox.

Multiple times I noticed Knox getting the ball early.  I was starting to believe we would start incorporating him into the game plan but then it just stopped.

[Solomon Grundy]

I'm NOT a scout of any kind, amateur or professional, but my eyes tell me that the first WR off the board for the Bills should be Zay Flowers. The guy is a big play waiting to happen. Size be damned. 

[prissythecat]

22 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I'm NOT a scout of any kind, amateur or professional, but my eyes tell me that the first WR off the board for the Bills should be Zay Flowers. The guy is a big play waiting to happen. Size be damned. 

 

I can't help but think that drafting a player whose name is a combination of past Bills draft failures is bad Karma

 

Zay Jones

Erik Flowers

[nedboy7]

2 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

Maybe it’ll be you.

word is he is going to another AFC East team. 

[Don Otreply]

9 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

It's not supposed to be a "crap shoot."  We spend a huge amount of money, as do all teams, running a huge scouting department.  They are supposed to be better than throwing darts at a board, but they're not.

 

 

OR, with all the resources put into it by all teams, this is as good as it is likely to get, just imagine if they didn’t put all that effort into trying to figure it out…, being that an exceptionally good draft is hitting on only fifty percent of your picks and likely only one or two that are truly impactful, and the rest being reasonable role players if your lucky,  sooo…, what can we really except to be achieved in a single draft, me, I want a freaking miracle this year, but I’m not gonna hold my breath. 
 

GO BILLS!!!

[SoCal Deek]

Here’s my simple take: The Bills have an oddly constructed roster for such a highly respected team. On offense they rely almost solely on Allen both passing and running, and have gotten merely average production from any of their skill position draft picks (Singletary, Knox, Davis). On defense, it’s similar but there they rely on a soft scheme that dares the opponent to go the length of the field without making a mistake (which doesn’t work against better skilled playoff QBs), but again with the possible exception of Milano and Tre here they’ve gotten merely slightly above average production from many their skill position draft picks (Edmunds, Oliver, Epenesa). 

[Teddy KGB]

On 3/8/2023 at 11:06 PM, JoPoy88 said:

lol I love the nuts on you, claiming that you know better than Beane because why? Breece Hall was good for 7 games?  And you “called it”? Honestly the level of delusion is borderline creepy.

Breece hall is amazing.    He just got hurt 

 

you think this guy could do worse then Epanesa, Ford, Badsham, Moss, Ed Oliver etc ? 

[Gunsgoodtime]

25 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

Breece hall is amazing.    He just got hurt 

 

you think this guy could do worse then Epanesa, Ford, Badsham, Moss, Ed Oliver etc ? 

That's a pretty sad list of draft capital.  Unfortunately you could go on further

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Dawson Knox is without DOUBT a top 10 tight end. The issue is the Bills don't throw him the ***** football. The only two tight ends with more touchdowns than Dawson Knox since the the start of 2021 are Travis Kelce and George Kittle. And they are #1 and #2 in the game right now. I think it is hard to put Knox top 5 based on bare yardage, but he is a better blocker than most of the other guys you are going to think of and the lack of numbers is a result of a lack of targets (he is 16th among tight ends in that time period) despite (per NextGen stats) him being top 5 in separation yardage per route in 2022. I have him back half of the top 10.... but the potential is there for Knox to be a top 5 tight end. 

 

It should be job 1A for Dorsey this offseason. Figure out how to use Dawson Knox. Because that is one spot on the offense where I have zero doubt that coaching is holding back talent. I am at least encouraged by the fact that they figured it out a bit down the stretch. 35% of his seasonal yardage came in the final 4 games and he had a touchdown in each of them.

 

EDIT: I have a hunch Beane and McDermott were frustrated by it too... because there was a period in the middle of the year where they'd target Knox in the first 15 at least a couple of times and then get away from him the rest of the way. And that reeks of the HC insisting all week to the OC "you have to use Knox" so him designing and calling some stuff early. But then he couldn't maintain a rhythm of using him. 

 

Not sure about without a doubt. If he's top 10, he's in the back end like you say. At the end of the day the numbers are what they are. Blame the coaches, blame the QB, blame the player, the numbers are not there. Typically, TD's are not as sustainable year to year as receptions and yardage. But credit to Knox as he did finish the season tied for 5th in the category which isn't too shabby after coming off a season where he tied for 1st. 

 

2022

17th in receptions

17th in targets

14th in yards

Tied 5th/6th TD's

 

If we argue he is not getting enough targets based on being 17th among TE's, the same argument can probably be made for a few of the other Tight Ends who are ranked 11-16th in targets. Receptions and yardage totals would be higher if they were top 10 in targets. 

 

Luckily for Knox, Davis was on the team this year, or he would have been the offenses biggest underperformer based on pre-season expectations. Personally, I think it is a combination of coaching, QB and player himself holding Knox back from reaching the top 10 targets, receptions, and yardage mark. 

 

Right now, Knox is simply a very replaceable piece in this offense. That needs to change when the Bills are now under cap limitations. 

[Teddy KGB]

32 minutes ago, Gunsgoodtime said:

That's a pretty sad list of draft capital.  Unfortunately you could go on further

i left out Rousseau because I think he might actually hit.   
 

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Not sure about without a doubt. If he's top 10, he's in the back end like you say. At the end of the day the numbers are what they are. Blame the coaches, blame the QB, blame the player, the numbers are not there. Typically, TD's are not as sustainable year to year as receptions and yardage. But credit to Knox as he did finish the season tied for 5th in the category which isn't too shabby after coming off a season where he tied for 1st. 

 

2022

17th in receptions

17th in targets

14th in yards

Tied 5th/6th TD's

 

If we argue he is not getting enough targets based on being 17th among TE's, the same argument can probably be made for a few of the other Tight Ends who are ranked 11-16th in targets. Receptions and yardage totals would be higher if they were top 10 in targets. 

 

Luckily for Knox, Davis was on the team this year, or he would have been the offenses biggest underperformer based on pre-season expectations. Personally, I think it is a combination of coaching, QB and player himself holding Knox back from reaching the top 10 targets, receptions, and yardage mark. 

 

Right now, Knox is simply a very replaceable piece in this offense. That needs to change when the Bills are now under cap limitations. 

 

He can't throw himself the ball. all he can do is get open and catch it and for the last two years he has done that at a high level. He is without a doubt a top 10 tight end - the problem is the Bills don't get him the ball. I don't put an iota of that on Knox, the numbers just don't support it. When Tyler freaking Conklin is being targeted more than Dawson Knox that right there is a game plan issue. Knox is only replaceable because they don't use the tight end. He is the Bills second best offensive player (excluding the QB obviously). Of the other 10 I rank it 1. Diggs, 2. Knox, 3. Dawkins, 4. Morse. 5 through 11 hardly matter. 

 

As for could others in the Knox territory in terms of yardage make the same argument re. targets.... only Hunter Henry is down in the same territory target wise and still producing at as good or better a clip in terms of YPC. Of the others below him the only ones you could really say that of are Rob Gronkowski - a now retired sure fire 1st ballot HoFer and Darren Waller a top 5 tight end who is lower on the list for the last two years due to injury. 

Edited March 10, 2023 by GunnerBill

[folz]

Did a quick Google search to try and find articles ranking the drafting success of NFL teams, just out of curiosity. There was less than I thought there would be (or my search terms maybe weren't catching everything). It's only 4 articles that were somewhat current (linked below), so take it with a grain of salt, but the Bills ranked 3rd, 4th, 12th, and 16th per these articles (the #12 ranking is over the last ten years, the others are more focused to 2017-2021). I think this very small sample size shows at least two things: 

 

1. Ranking draft success is still a very subjective matter. Everyone can agree on the major hits and busts, but everything in between seems to be ranked somewhat on a personal scale. Or it's based on playing time, how long they stayed with a team, etc. which doesn't necessarily tell you exactly how good or impactful that player actually was.

 

2. Under the current regime, the Bills have not been bad at drafting (probably somewhere in the top third of the league), but they also haven't been great at drafting (consensus top 5 say). Outside of drafting Josh, I doubt any Bills fans would say we have been one of the best drafting teams over the last six years (definite room for improvement), but I also don't think you can say that they have been bad, by any means (in comparison to the rest of the league, they are definitely above average).

 

We may not have drafted as many studs as we would have liked, but we have got a lot of production/minutes from our draft picks (Tre, Dion, Matt, Josh, Tremaine, Harrison, Taron, Siran, Ed, Devin, Dawson, Gabe, Tyler, Dane, A.J., Greg, Boogie, Spencer, Damar, Doyle, Kaiir, Jimbo, Christian, Khalil---and then there is Wyatt and Isiah too, of course). That equates to just over 4 productive players per draft, which I would assume across the league is pretty good. Where we have obviously been lacking is finding Studs...but you also have to remember that four of our six first round picks over that span came in the bottom half of round one. Only Josh at #7 and Ed at #9 were top 15 picks. Most studs are found at the top of the first round. And then it's obviously the same for each subsequent round, we generally are picking at the bottom of the 2nd round, bottom of the third round, etc. Which needs to be taken into account when say comparing it to a team who has been drafting high in the rounds.

 

We may not be one of the best drafting teams (hope that improves), but they ARE pretty darn good at overall team building thus far. And obviously, rankings can change quickly. For instance, if we get studs with say two of our top three picks this year, and/or one or more of Ed, Groot, Boogie, Elam, Shakir, or others raise their gameplay, our drafting success will look a hell of a lot better and we'd probably be considered one of the best drafting teams over the last 7-8 years. But, if our first two picks this year bust or are just mediocre (and none of our young guys take that next step), we would all of a sudden look like a below average drafting team. It's kind of a fluid thing.

 

But, here's to hoping for some big hits this year!

 

 

ESPN: Teams' overall drafting since 2012 ranked. Bills ranked 12th. [Article is from April 2022]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33297949/nfl-draft-which-teams-gotten-best-value-2012-rank-all-32

 

This site ranks for the last 5 years (2017-2021) and has the Bills ranked 3rd. [Article is from April 2022]

https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/nfl-draft/which-teams-have-been-best-at-drafting/

 

This site has Bills at #16 over the last 5 years (2017-2021). [Article is from April 2021]

https://nypost.com/2021/04/17/nfl-draft-analysis-ranking-teams-five-year-history/

 

PFF ranking drafts from 2017-2020 [article from Feb 2021]. Bills rank 4th.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-historical-draft-success-for-all-32-nfl-teams

 

 

[Milanos Milano]

3 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

Breece hall is amazing.    He just got hurt 

 

you think this guy could do worse then Epanesa, Ford, Badsham, Moss, Ed Oliver etc ? 

I also preferred Hall/Woolen to Elam/Cook . I still think Elam/Cook will be ok, but I really wanted Hall/Woolen and I’m mad about it.