final DVOA stats up - Bills #1 overall

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

I don’t understand how our defense is rated so high.  We don’t get the sacks or turnovers, and we’ve been giving up a decent share of points.  
 

Are other defenses really that bad?

 

 

They were the #1 red zone defense in the NFL entering yesterdays game (KC had the lowest rated red zone D in the NFL this year).

 

The Bills finished with the 3rd most turnovers caused with 27..........so they actually did cause a lot of turnovers..........and they were 13th in sacks per game so still above average in that regard too.

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Rock'em Sock'em said:

Bills are 7th in rushing yards per game and the only team to have 100 yards rushing in every single game.  Five of the teams above us also have QBs that gain rushing yards - a couple of them even more so than Allen.  Where do you see the lack of commitment this season?

 

They only had 90 yards rushing vs the pats. They also could have had had 100 but resorted to kneel downs at the end.

Just now, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

They were the #1 red zone defense in the NFL entering yesterdays game (KC had the lowest rated red zone D in the NFL this year).

 

The Bills finished with the 3rd most turnovers caused with 27..........so they actually did cause a lot of turnovers..........and they were 13th in sacks per game so still above average in that regard too.

Yes, this idea that the Bills didn’t force a lot of turnovers seems to be the mindset of people who only watch Bills games.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Yes, this idea that the Bills didn’t force a lot of turnovers seems to be the mindset of people who only watch Bills games.

 

There was an expectation from a lot of fans that this season would be a victory march from beginning to end.......like the year the Eagles had until the last month of the season or the roll that the Niners have been on.  

 

 It wasn't that.   

 

Some players had excellent stretches of the season but amazingly the only 3 players on the entire roster who played to anticipated individual expectation or above and did it all season were Stef Diggs,  Matt Milano and Sam Martin.    

 

But the whole was greater than the sum of the parts this season..........which is a different way to be entering the playoffs than the prior 3 seasons.

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

I find PFF's results surprising.  The Bills just haven't looked like a dominant team in the second of the season.  Too many inconsistent performances at too many position groups.  

 

Then again, every team this year has weaknesses. 

 

 

Because no team has really been dominant consistently this year.

[Best Williams Available]

9 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Yesterday was a huge plus for special teams for sure.  

 

Not sure about #2 on offense anymore.  To start the year yes but it has but up ad down since then.     

We played poorly and scored 35, 35, and 32 points in the last 3 full games. Yes 14 cane from KRs.

[Augie]

19 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

There was an expectation from a lot of fans that this season would be a victory march from beginning to end.......like the year the Eagles had until the last month of the season or the roll that the Niners have been on.  

 

 It wasn't that.   

 

Some players had excellent stretches of the season but amazingly the only 3 players on the entire roster who played to anticipated individual expectation or above and did it all season were Stef Diggs,  Matt Milano and Sam Martin.    

 

But the whole was greater than the sum of the parts this season..........which is a different way to be entering the playoffs than the prior 3 seasons.

 

That sounds like good coaching to me. 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Because no team has really been dominant consistently this year.

 

 

A number have had longer, more dominant, convincing stretches this season though...........which is the norm for a SB winner.

 

But plenty of teams have won SB's with less consistency let alone dominance........most recently the past 2 SB winners the 4th seeded Bucs and Rams.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

4 hours ago, BearNorth said:

We also played Detroit, Minny & Chicago - 3 of the 4 lowest ranked defenses.

I think 4 games against NE and NYJ balances that out…every team is gonna play a handful of garbage defenses in a ‘17’ game schedule.  

[aceman_16]

6 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

no kidding, really?

Yeah go read your quoted post....really

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

9 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

All the advanced team metrics love Bills DVOA, SRS, FPI, 538. The eye test hasn't been passed lately.

 

 We've put up 32, 35 & 35 in our last 3 games, while beating 2 division rivals. Should've been 42, but our #2 WR loves to drop passes that hit him right in the hands. But on top of that, yesterday was the first time since Josh's elbow injury that his long ball looked effortless. Heck with effortless, it was just nice to see him throw long at all. It's been missing from this offense for almost 2 months and returned just in time for the playoffs.  #3

 

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

9 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Yesterday was a huge plus for special teams for sure.  

 

Not sure about #2 on offense anymore.  To start the year yes but it has but up ad down since then.     

 

Watch other teams

[BigDingus]

9 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

My eyes are seeing that the Bills haven't lost a game since Nov. 13th and that their three losses were by a total of 8 points combined .. and that the Bills have the 2nd best point differential in the NFL.

 

Passing with flying colors, in my opinion.

 

 

That's not the eye test, that's the exact opposite. We can all read the numbers & W/L record... But sure, if "eye test" just means "ability to read," then sure?

[Gugny]

19 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

That's not the eye test, that's the exact opposite. We can all read the numbers & W/L record... But sure, if "eye test" just means "ability to read," then sure?

 

Okay.  Fair enough.  My eyes saw the Bills outscoring 13/16 opponents.  My eyes saw the defense being stout when it mattered.  My eyes saw the Bills scoring touchdowns and getting into field goal range when they needed to.

 

And yes .. my eyes saw Josh being sloppy, too many penalties, too many drops and too many turnovers.

 

But guess what??  So did the fans' eyes of every one of their favorite teams.

 

But did their favorite teams win 13 games and get the 2 seed, even after a canceled game?

 

No.

 

The eye test passes for anyone not trying as hard as they can to find what's WRONG with the Bills.

 

Enjoy that existence.  I'm loving riding the wave, baby.

[Dr.Sack]

4 potential games left. Any given Sunday anyone can win. 

[gobills404]

12 hours ago, billsbackto81 said:

You forgot to mention their strength of schedule which I believe was rated one of if not the hardest in the league.

It was 7th hardest, but 3 of the 6 teams ahead of them are the Jets, Pats, and dolphins. And they only had harder schedules because the Bills didn’t have to play the Bills twice.

[Big Turk]

Bills also only the 7th team ever to finish in the top 5 for Offense, Defense and Special Teams.  Just a note...they are pretty f**king good!

 

Edited January 10, 2023 by Big Turk

[Scott7975]

10 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

A number have had longer, more dominant, convincing stretches this season though...........which is the norm for a SB winner.

 

But plenty of teams have won SB's with less consistency let alone dominance........most recently the past 2 SB winners the 4th seeded Bucs and Rams.

 

Have they though?  Even the Eagles had 8 one score games and had a fairly soft schedule.  KC has looked just as sloppy as we have.  Who are the handfuls of teams that are more dominant and have convincing stretches in your opinion.  I have not watched every game but I dont see this dominance from anyone really.  I would say the Eagles were the closest but they arent blowing people out.  Maybe we have a different idea of what dominant means.

 

Some of this is also about who you play, where you play them and when. Miami for instance was pretty hot but they played mostly fodder for a long stretch and they werent dominant in those games either.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Scott7975

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

19 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

 .. and that the Bills have the 2nd best point differential in the NFL.

 

Damn. I was hoping we would finish first in that. 49ers have been on an unreal streak. They really look like the team to beat this year. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

It appears like a few have taken my mentioning the "eye" test wrong and as a way to disparage the Bills. Quite the contrary, it was pointed out they are number 1 in season long advanced team metrics. Both are a way to discern whether the process is sustainable. The season long numbers say yes, the visual on recent games we've seen say something different.

4 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Damn. I was hoping we would finish first in that. 49ers have been on an unreal streak. They really look like the team to beat this year. 

The SOS on Football Reference has about a 2 1/2 pt difference for the Bills over 49ers and easily moves them to number 1.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

The SOS on Football Reference has about a 2 1/2 pt difference for the Bills over 49ers and easily moves them to number 1.

 

Ah okay. I was confused why the Bills were still ranked #1 on PFR in point differential. That is two straight seasons #1 in differential for the Bills now.

4 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

It appears like a few have taken my mentioning the "eye" test wrong and as a way to disparage the Bills. Quite the contrary, it was pointed out they are number 1 in season long advanced team metrics.

 

Yeah, it's clear they are still dominating and finding ways to win while being not fully healthy most the season and not playing to their full potential. The Bills could get even better in the postseason if things start to click again.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[gjv]

16 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/glossary#:~:text=DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted,this stat is called VOA.

 

DVOA: The main statistic used on Football Outsiders, DVOA breaks down the entire season play-by-play, comparing success on each play to the league average based on a number of variables including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality. While it can be used as a measure of total team performance, it differs from other power ratings found throughout the Web because it can be broken down to analyze team effectiveness in any number of ways: down, quarter, rushing vs. receiving, location on field, passes to backs vs. passes to receivers, and so on. Read the article METHODS TO THE MADNESS for more information. DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, although we use the same letters to refer to defensive rankings which are adjusted to take into account the quality of offensive opponents. When not adjusted for opponent, this stat is called VOA.

Thanks, I appreciate the time you spent helping me.

[BADOLBILZ]

19 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Have they though?  Even the Eagles had 8 one score games and had a fairly soft schedule.  KC has looked just as sloppy as we have.  Who are the handfuls of teams that are more dominant and have convincing stretches in your opinion.  I have not watched every game but I dont see this dominance from anyone really.  I would say the Eagles were the closest but they arent blowing people out.  Maybe we have a different idea of what dominant means.

 

Some of this is also about who you play, where you play them and when. Miami for instance was pretty hot but they played mostly fodder for a long stretch and they werent dominant in those games either.

 

 

Yes they have............the Eagles got out to a 13-1 start..........and the Niners are on the NFL's longest current win streak and are smacking the sh!t out of teams and dominating them with a 7th round rookie at QB.      

 

Those teams have had more impressive, convincing stretches of regular season performances than the Bills best runs which were early and late in the season(around their annual midseason malaise).

 

But the Chiefs had won like 11 of 12 going into the AFCCG last year.........and lost.    And the Packers had a much better regular season than the Rams in 2021.......and lost in the divisional round.    Hence my point.   4 seeds have won each of the last 2 SB's.  

[Dopey]

20 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

All the advanced team metrics love Bills DVOA, SRS, FPI, 538. The eye test hasn't been passed lately.

[colin]

i think we are a slightly above average WR2 and or WR3 from absolutely waltzing to the number 1 seed.

 

mckenzie not being in position to get out of bounds vs miami, ball bouncing off of davis' chest after a 68 yard frozen rope from JA17, and a few opportunities to score vs Minni.

 

so the good part we have a pretty monster team which is ready to ball, the bad part is the sloppiness and lack of threat outside of diggs still exists.

 

the solution is to have a couple new looks on O allowing us to run our favorite plays, and to take some better advantage of play action w our vastly improved run game.  i think cook and hines are the real elements that we didn't have last season and they could help us get ahead of teams (like we have in all but 3 games this season) so we can win the game controlling the ball (and the 3 games we lost, we had the ball and coulda iced it if it went our way late) on the last drive.

 

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yes they have............the Eagles got out to a 13-1 start..........and the Niners are on the NFL's longest current win streak and are smacking the sh!t out of teams and dominating them with a 7th round rookie at QB.      

 

Those teams have had more impressive, convincing stretches of regular season performances than the Bills best runs which were early and late in the season(around their annual midseason malaise).

 

But the Chiefs had won like 11 of 12 going into the AFCCG last year.........and lost.    And the Packers had a much better regular season than the Rams in 2021.......and lost in the divisional round.    Hence my point.   4 seeds have won each of the last 2 SB's.  

 

Im not talking about winning streaks.  Im talking about domination.  I will give you the 49ers.  They have been pretty dominating but they also have played alot of mediocre teams on that stretch.

 

You are talking about win streaks here.  I get your point but the point I was making is that even teams like the Chiefs and Bengals have had sloppy play in their wins just like the Bills have had.

 

Anything can happen in the playoffs but I think thats what you are saying too.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Scott7975

[NickelCity]

4 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Im not talking about winning streaks.  Im talking about domination.  I will give you the 49ers.  They have been pretty dominating but they also have played alot of mediocre teams on that stretch.

 

You are talking about win streaks here.  I get your point but the point I was making is that even teams like the Chiefs and Bengals have had sloppy play in their wins just like the Bills have had.

 

Anything can happen in the playoffs but I think thats what you are saying too.

 

I don't want anything to do with the 49ers

[Scott7975]

Just now, NickelCity said:

 

I don't want anything to do with the 49ers

 

The Bills beat them last season and they were good then too. However, that is the team I would like to see least in the SB as well.

[dave mcbride]

5 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

The Bills beat them last season and they were good then too. However, that is the team I would like to see least in the SB as well.

They beat them in 2020 and SF was devastated by injury. They started Nick Mullins and a ton of guys were out on defense, including Bosa. The Bills won 34-24 but were up 34-17 with less than a minute to go. The Niners scored a garbage time TD in the last minute.

[Scott7975]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

They beat them in 2020 and SF was devastated by injury. They started Nick Mullins and a ton of guys were out on defense, including Bosa. The Bills won 34-24 but were up 34-17 with less than a minute to go. The Niners scored a garbage time TD in the last minute.

 

All I remember is a bunch of people here never gave us a chance in that game.  Much like they do for a lot of games.