Sean McDermott is the current longest tenured NFL head coach without a Super Bowl appearance.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

It seems most people have this vision of a slow grind of building a team and then advancing step by step through the years.  In real life, it is more like catching lightning in a bottle.  In the NFL the lightning is getting the right Starting QB / HC combo.    During the super bowl era, this is a list of how long each Starting QB/HC combo was together before winning their first champhionship together.  A couple of notes, Lombardi/Starr won NFL championships together before the Super Bowl era. Stram/Dawson's first championship together was an AFL championship

Next, a review of this list makes a strong case that Joe Gibbs is the greatest coach in NFL history. 

The mean average of time together before winning the first championship in the super bowl era is 2.5  Years.  Only once were a coach and starting QB together for more than four years before winning their first championship together. (Ken Stabler/ John Madden in 1976).

In terms of winning a championship, the Bills are in nearly uncharted waters vs history.  
 

Season    QB-Coach Combo    First Championship Together
1966    Bart Starr*MVP-Vince Lombardi    Year 2
1967    Bart Starr*MVP-Vince Lombardi (2)    Year 2
1968    Joe Namath*MVP-Weeb Ewbank    Year 3
1969    Len Dawson*MVP-Hank Stram    Year 1
1970    Johnny Unitas*-Don McCafferty    Year 8
1971    Roger Staubach*MVP-Tom Landry    Year 2
1972    Bob Griese*-Don Shula    Year 3
1973    Bob Griese*-Don Shula (2)    Year 3
1974    Terry Bradshaw*-Chuck Noll    Year 4
1975    Terry Bradshaw*-Chuck Noll (2)    Year 4
1976    Ken Stabler*-John Madden    Year 6
1977    Roger Staubach*-Tom Landry (2)    Year 2
1978    Terry Bradshaw*MVP-Chuck Noll (3)    Year 4
1979    Terry Bradshaw*MVP-Chuck Noll (4)    Year 4
1980    Jim PlunkettMVP-Tom Flores    Year 1
1981    Joe Montana*MVP-Bill Walsh    Year 3
1982    Joe Theismann-Joe Gibbs    Year 2
1983    Jim Plunkett-Tom Flores (2)    Year 1
1984    Joe Montana*MVP-Bill Walsh (2)    Year 3
1985    Jim McMahon-Mike Ditka    Year 4
1986    Phil SimmsMVP-Bill Parcells    Year 3
1987    Doug WilliamsMVP-Joe Gibbs (2)    Year 2
1988    Joe Montana*-Bill Walsh (3)    Year 3
1989    Joe Montana*MVP-George Seifert    Year 1
1990    Jeff Hostetler-Bill Parcells (2)    Year 1
1991    Mark RypienMVP-Joe Gibbs (3)    Year 4
1992    Troy Aikman*MVP-Jimmy Johnson    Year 3
1993    Troy Aikman*-Jimmy Johnson (2)    Year 3
1994    Steve Young*MVP-George Seifert (2)    Year 3
1995    Troy Aikman*-Barry Switzer    Year 2
1996    Brett Favre*-Mike Holmgren    Year 3
1997    John Elway*-Mike Shanahan    Year 3
1998    John Elway*MVP-Mike Shanahan (2)    Year 3
1999    Kurt Warner*MVP-Dick Vermeil    Year 2
2000    Trent Dilfer-Brian Billick    Year 1
2001    Tom BradyMVP-Bill Belichick    Year 2
2002    Brad Johnson-Jon Gruden    Year 1
2003    Tom BradyMVP-Bill Belichick (2)    Year 2
2004    Tom Brady-Bill Belichick (3)    Year 2
2005    Ben Roethlisberger-Bill Cowher    Year 2
2006    Peyton Manning*MVP-Tony Dungy    Year 4
2007    Eli ManningMVP-Tom Coughlin    Year 3
2008    Ben Roethlisberger-Mike Tomlin    Year 2
2009    Drew BreesMVP-Sean Payton    Year 3
2010    Aaron RodgersMVP-Mike McCarthy    Year 3
2011    Eli ManningMVP-Tom Coughlin (2)    Year 3
2012    Joe FlaccoMVP-John Harbaugh    Year 4
2013    Russell Wilson-Pete Carroll    Year 2
2014    Tom BradyMVP-Bill Belichick (4)    Year 2
2015    Peyton Manning*-Gary Kubiak    Year 1
2016    Tom BradyMVP-Bill Belichick (5)    Year 2
2017    Nick FolesMVP-Doug Pederson    Year 1
2018    Tom Brady-Bill Belichick (6)    Year 2
2019    Patrick MahomesMVP-Andy Reid    Year 2
2020    Tom BradyMVP-Bruce Arians    Year 2
2021    Matthew Stafford-Sean McVay    Year 1

 

This is a much better post than your OP. I haven't fact checked all your numbers but I will assume they are correct. Putting it this way I see what you mean with Reid having quick success with the Chiefs with Mahomes since it took Reid to his 7th year to win the Super Bowl with the Chiefs. Now of course McDermott is in a different situation because the Bills already have their franchise QB. Allen's not going anywhere. 

 

This is a pretty concerning list if I am McDermott and want to hold onto my job. It all boils down to expectations. The greater the expectations the greater the floor on having to clear the minimum expectation. Right now the Bills probably have the highest expectation floor in all of football. Let's face it, it's nearly Thanksgiving and right now the Bills do have a very real chance of not winning the division. Don't win the division and don't win a playoff game this year when the expectation is at a minimum the AFC championship game and maybe more likely a Super Bowl appearance, that is how a really good coach gets bounced. 

 

You do have a guy like Sean Payton currently looking for a job. IMO, Sean Payton is one of the more over-rated coaches in NFL history. But my opinion also doesn't mean much at all in NFL executive circles.

 

But yeah, just look at the numbers in this new post by the OP. There's no question they should be concerning for McDermott who is now in his 5th year with Allen. We should break it down more though. How many teams tossed the HC aside and went on to win a super bowl with the same franchise QB but with a new coach? Based on the above data we know that super bowl would have been won between year 1 and year 4 in nearly every case but how many of those cases are there, with again, the same QB since we know Allen isn't going anywhere?

Edited November 19, 2022 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

The only other way I would also look at this is that Allen was such a raw QB prospect coming out of the draft and taking a meteoritic rise in his third season I would lean towards giving McDermott a pass in years 1 and 2 with Allen since realistically the Bills were not winning a super bowl in either of those two seasons. If we are okay with that assumption than we can view this season of McDermott/Allen as their 3rd season. That logic also makes sense to me because it would mean next season is the true make or break season for the McDermott/Allen era as it would be year #4. And really, the only way I could see McDermott not back next season is if the Bills miss the playoffs this year entirely. Even not winning the division and getting bounced in the first year I think McDermott would come back for a final prove it year.

[Donuts and Doritos]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

It seems most people have this vision of a slow grind of building a team and then advancing step by step through the years.  In real life, it is more like catching lightning in a bottle.  In the NFL the lightning is getting the right Starting QB / HC combo.    During the super bowl era, this is a list of how long each Starting QB/HC combo was together before winning their first champhionship together.  A couple of notes, Lombardi/Starr won NFL championships together before the Super Bowl era. Stram/Dawson's first championship together was an AFL championship

Next, a review of this list makes a strong case that Joe Gibbs is the greatest coach in NFL history. 

The mean average of time together before winning the first championship in the super bowl era is 2.5  Years.  Only once were a coach and starting QB together for more than four years before winning their first championship together. (Ken Stabler/ John Madden in 1976).

In terms of winning a championship, the Bills are in nearly uncharted waters vs history.  
 

Season    QB-Coach Combo    First Championship Together
1966    Bart Starr*MVP-Vince Lombardi    Year 2
1967    Bart Starr*MVP-Vince Lombardi (2)    Year 2
1968    Joe Namath*MVP-Weeb Ewbank    Year 3
1969    Len Dawson*MVP-Hank Stram    Year 1
1970    Johnny Unitas*-Don McCafferty    Year 8
1971    Roger Staubach*MVP-Tom Landry    Year 2
1972    Bob Griese*-Don Shula    Year 3
1973    Bob Griese*-Don Shula (2)    Year 3
1974    Terry Bradshaw*-Chuck Noll    Year 4
1975    Terry Bradshaw*-Chuck Noll (2)    Year 4
1976    Ken Stabler*-John Madden    Year 6
1977    Roger Staubach*-Tom Landry (2)    Year 2
1978    Terry Bradshaw*MVP-Chuck Noll (3)    Year 4
1979    Terry Bradshaw*MVP-Chuck Noll (4)    Year 4
1980    Jim PlunkettMVP-Tom Flores    Year 1
1981    Joe Montana*MVP-Bill Walsh    Year 3
1982    Joe Theismann-Joe Gibbs    Year 2
1983    Jim Plunkett-Tom Flores (2)    Year 1
1984    Joe Montana*MVP-Bill Walsh (2)    Year 3
1985    Jim McMahon-Mike Ditka    Year 4
1986    Phil SimmsMVP-Bill Parcells    Year 3
1987    Doug WilliamsMVP-Joe Gibbs (2)    Year 2
1988    Joe Montana*-Bill Walsh (3)    Year 3
1989    Joe Montana*MVP-George Seifert    Year 1
1990    Jeff Hostetler-Bill Parcells (2)    Year 1
1991    Mark RypienMVP-Joe Gibbs (3)    Year 4
1992    Troy Aikman*MVP-Jimmy Johnson    Year 3
1993    Troy Aikman*-Jimmy Johnson (2)    Year 3
1994    Steve Young*MVP-George Seifert (2)    Year 3
1995    Troy Aikman*-Barry Switzer    Year 2
1996    Brett Favre*-Mike Holmgren    Year 3
1997    John Elway*-Mike Shanahan    Year 3
1998    John Elway*MVP-Mike Shanahan (2)    Year 3
1999    Kurt Warner*MVP-Dick Vermeil    Year 2
2000    Trent Dilfer-Brian Billick    Year 1
2001    Tom BradyMVP-Bill Belichick    Year 2
2002    Brad Johnson-Jon Gruden    Year 1
2003    Tom BradyMVP-Bill Belichick (2)    Year 2
2004    Tom Brady-Bill Belichick (3)    Year 2
2005    Ben Roethlisberger-Bill Cowher    Year 2
2006    Peyton Manning*MVP-Tony Dungy    Year 4
2007    Eli ManningMVP-Tom Coughlin    Year 3
2008    Ben Roethlisberger-Mike Tomlin    Year 2
2009    Drew BreesMVP-Sean Payton    Year 3
2010    Aaron RodgersMVP-Mike McCarthy    Year 3
2011    Eli ManningMVP-Tom Coughlin (2)    Year 3
2012    Joe FlaccoMVP-John Harbaugh    Year 4
2013    Russell Wilson-Pete Carroll    Year 2
2014    Tom BradyMVP-Bill Belichick (4)    Year 2
2015    Peyton Manning*-Gary Kubiak    Year 1
2016    Tom BradyMVP-Bill Belichick (5)    Year 2
2017    Nick FolesMVP-Doug Pederson    Year 1
2018    Tom Brady-Bill Belichick (6)    Year 2
2019    Patrick MahomesMVP-Andy Reid    Year 2
2020    Tom BradyMVP-Bruce Arians    Year 2
2021    Matthew Stafford-Sean McVay    Year 1

 

So we won't win the SB. Got it. Thanks for spoiling the ending. I was going to watch how it plays out. & On that bitter disappointment guess I'll get back to shoveling snow instead.

[The Frankish Reich]

14 hours ago, chongli said:

 

Those 5 have been head coaches for much longer than McD. A better question would be when did each of the above get their first SB wins?

The first three got their first (only) Super Bowl wins in their second or third NFL head coaching gigs.

McDermott: Super Bowl winner, Carolina Panthers, Super Bowl LX, February 2026.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

It seems most people have this vision of a slow grind of building a team and then advancing step by step through the years.  In real life, it is more like catching lightning in a bottle.  In the NFL the lightning is getting the right Starting QB / HC combo.    During the super bowl era, this is a list of how long each Starting QB/HC combo was together before winning their first champhionship together.  A couple of notes, Lombardi/Starr won NFL championships together before the Super Bowl era. Stram/Dawson's first championship together was an AFL championship

Next, a review of this list makes a strong case that Joe Gibbs is the greatest coach in NFL history. 

The mean average of time together before winning the first championship in the super bowl era is 2.5  Years.  Only once were a coach and starting QB together for more than four years before winning their first championship together. (Ken Stabler/ John Madden in 1976).

In terms of winning a championship, the Bills are in nearly uncharted waters vs history.  
 

Season    QB-Coach Combo    First Championship Together
1966    Bart Starr*MVP-Vince Lombardi    Year 2
1967    Bart Starr*MVP-Vince Lombardi (2)    Year 2
1968    Joe Namath*MVP-Weeb Ewbank    Year 3
1969    Len Dawson*MVP-Hank Stram    Year 1
1970    Johnny Unitas*-Don McCafferty    Year 8
1971    Roger Staubach*MVP-Tom Landry    Year 2
1972    Bob Griese*-Don Shula    Year 3
1973    Bob Griese*-Don Shula (2)    Year 3
1974    Terry Bradshaw*-Chuck Noll    Year 4
1975    Terry Bradshaw*-Chuck Noll (2)    Year 4
1976    Ken Stabler*-John Madden    Year 6
1977    Roger Staubach*-Tom Landry (2)    Year 2
1978    Terry Bradshaw*MVP-Chuck Noll (3)    Year 4
1979    Terry Bradshaw*MVP-Chuck Noll (4)    Year 4
1980    Jim PlunkettMVP-Tom Flores    Year 1
1981    Joe Montana*MVP-Bill Walsh    Year 3
1982    Joe Theismann-Joe Gibbs    Year 2
1983    Jim Plunkett-Tom Flores (2)    Year 1
1984    Joe Montana*MVP-Bill Walsh (2)    Year 3
1985    Jim McMahon-Mike Ditka    Year 4
1986    Phil SimmsMVP-Bill Parcells    Year 3
1987    Doug WilliamsMVP-Joe Gibbs (2)    Year 2
1988    Joe Montana*-Bill Walsh (3)    Year 3
1989    Joe Montana*MVP-George Seifert    Year 1
1990    Jeff Hostetler-Bill Parcells (2)    Year 1
1991    Mark RypienMVP-Joe Gibbs (3)    Year 4
1992    Troy Aikman*MVP-Jimmy Johnson    Year 3
1993    Troy Aikman*-Jimmy Johnson (2)    Year 3
1994    Steve Young*MVP-George Seifert (2)    Year 3
1995    Troy Aikman*-Barry Switzer    Year 2
1996    Brett Favre*-Mike Holmgren    Year 3
1997    John Elway*-Mike Shanahan    Year 3
1998    John Elway*MVP-Mike Shanahan (2)    Year 3
1999    Kurt Warner*MVP-Dick Vermeil    Year 2
2000    Trent Dilfer-Brian Billick    Year 1
2001    Tom BradyMVP-Bill Belichick    Year 2
2002    Brad Johnson-Jon Gruden    Year 1
2003    Tom BradyMVP-Bill Belichick (2)    Year 2
2004    Tom Brady-Bill Belichick (3)    Year 2
2005    Ben Roethlisberger-Bill Cowher    Year 2
2006    Peyton Manning*MVP-Tony Dungy    Year 4
2007    Eli ManningMVP-Tom Coughlin    Year 3
2008    Ben Roethlisberger-Mike Tomlin    Year 2
2009    Drew BreesMVP-Sean Payton    Year 3
2010    Aaron RodgersMVP-Mike McCarthy    Year 3
2011    Eli ManningMVP-Tom Coughlin (2)    Year 3
2012    Joe FlaccoMVP-John Harbaugh    Year 4
2013    Russell Wilson-Pete Carroll    Year 2
2014    Tom BradyMVP-Bill Belichick (4)    Year 2
2015    Peyton Manning*-Gary Kubiak    Year 1
2016    Tom BradyMVP-Bill Belichick (5)    Year 2
2017    Nick FolesMVP-Doug Pederson    Year 1
2018    Tom Brady-Bill Belichick (6)    Year 2
2019    Patrick MahomesMVP-Andy Reid    Year 2
2020    Tom BradyMVP-Bruce Arians    Year 2
2021    Matthew Stafford-Sean McVay    Year 1

 

Last year was the shot for that.

[Chaos]

18 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

19 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

This is a much better post than your OP. I haven't fact checked all your numbers but I will assume they are correct. Putting it this way I see what you mean with Reid having quick success with the Chiefs with Mahomes since it took Reid to his 7th year to win the Super Bowl with the Chiefs. Now of course McDermott is in a different situation because the Bills already have their franchise QB. Allen's not going anywhere. 

 

This is a pretty concerning list if I am McDermott and want to hold onto my job. It all boils down to expectations. The greater the expectations the greater the floor on having to clear the minimum expectation. Right now the Bills probably have the highest expectation floor in all of football. Let's face it, it's nearly Thanksgiving and right now the Bills do have a very real chance of not winning the division. Don't win the division and don't win a playoff game this year when the expectation is at a minimum the AFC championship game and maybe more likely a Super Bowl appearance, that is how a really good coach gets bounced. 

 

You do have a guy like Sean Payton currently looking for a job. IMO, Sean Payton is one of the more over-rated coaches in NFL history. But my opinion also doesn't mean much at all in NFL executive circles.

 

But yeah, just look at the numbers in this new post by the OP. There's no question they should be concerning for McDermott who is now in his 5th year with Allen. We should break it down more though. How many teams tossed the HC aside and went on to win a super bowl with the same franchise QB but with a new coach? Based on the above data we know that super bowl would have been won between year 1 and year 4 in nearly every case but how many of those cases are there, with again, the same QB since we know Allen isn't going anywhere?

The combos shown in yellow are where the QB started before the coach.  The ones in orange are where the QB and Coach started same season (far more common than I would have guessed).  Its fairly clear that new head coaches with established franchise QBs have IN THE PAST won more super bowls than teams sticking with a coach for many years, one the QB is place. 

 

 

[Jerome007]

15 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Patience?  We've been to the playoffs four of the last five years after patiently waiting 17 years.  We'd be nuts to fire McDermott.

I agree. Fully. But if he can't get even close to the SB with this current roster, it won't look good. Even in those 3 losses, it was easy to tell the Bills had more talent overall, even with all the injuries.

[Nextmanup]

4 minutes ago, Jerome007 said:

I agree. Fully. But if he can't get even close to the SB with this current roster, it won't look good. Even in those 3 losses, it was easy to tell the Bills had more talent overall, even with all the injuries.

Disagree we have more talent overall than any Chiefs team we have played so far.

 

There is a sizable Bills fan contingent that still is upset over the loss of Tyrod Taylor as their starting QB!  They always believe in him SO MUCH!  

 

If he can't get it done an McDermott goes, fans will get over it.

 

 

[What a Tuel]

15 hours ago, Chaos said:

This could be right. On the other hand a good percentage of the last several super bowls have been coaches new to their teams (McVay, Reid, Shanahan, Taylor).  

I do not think he ever did. Which is why I gave Mcdermott the plus sign designation in Marvin Lewis + . Norv Turner on the Chargers might be a better comp. 

 

Reid was on the chiefs for 6 years before a Super Bowl appearance.

 

2013-2018 were no super bowl years. Really says something about Chiefs fans patience 😂

 

 

[Punching Bag]

16 hours ago, Chaos said:

Bills fans are the most patient.  In almost every other NFL fanbase Mr. McDermott would be "on the hot seat"

 

I would call it "patient". I would call it masochist.  Hence why Bills fans keep looking for the worst angles even when Bills are playing well.

[Dr. K]

16 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

He's on my hot seat. Does that count? 

. 

I suspect your seat is always hot. Or your head. 

[Bangarang]

If only McD has as many losing seasons as Kyle Shanahan then fans would be happy. 

[Doc Brown]

3 hours ago, Jerome007 said:

I agree. Fully. But if he can't get even close to the SB with this current roster, it won't look good. Even in those 3 losses, it was easy to tell the Bills had more talent overall, even with all the injuries.

True but we also beat the three other AFC division leaders at the moment so you have to give McDermott and staff credit for that.  You also can't fault the coaching staff for an under throw to McKenzie on 4th and goal against the Fins and a fumble in their own end zone that cost us the game against the Vikings.  That's on Josh.  He makes either of those plays and we're 7-2 and/or 8-1 not having this conversation.

[Jerome007]

6 hours ago, Chaos said:

Only once were a coach and starting QB together for more than four years before winning their first championship together

This is actually weird!

 

Josh and McD will be the second ones!

[Punching Bag]

2 hours ago, Dr. K said:

I suspect your seat is always hot. Or your head. 

 

What is the difference?

36 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

True but we also beat the three other AFC division leaders at the moment so you have to give McDermott and staff credit for that.  You also can't fault the coaching staff for an under throw to McKenzie on 4th and goal against the Fins and a fumble in their own end zone that cost us the game against the Vikings.  That's on Josh.  He makes either of those plays and we're 7-2 and/or 8-1 not having this conversation.

 

Sure you can.  Just be an irrational ranter.

[Chaos]

10 minutes ago, Jerome007 said:

This is actually weird!

 

Josh and McD will be the second ones!

Not sue it is weird. It seems to indicate that when owners think they have a potential Super Bowl winning QB they only wait about 1/3 of said QBs career before trying another route. 

[Doc Brown]

4 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Not sue it is weird. It seems to indicate that when owners think they have a potential Super Bowl winning QB they only wait about 1/3 of said QBs career before trying another route. 

Kelly and Levy made their first Super Bowl together after in their fifth year following an AFC Championship game loss in '88 and a divisional round loss in '89.  We may lose the next four Super Bowls.

[Scott7975]

Darn.  I guess I should just stop watching until they replace McD with the new retread fad.

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, Chaos said:

It seems most people have this vision of a slow grind of building a team and then advancing step by step through the years.  In real life, it is more like catching lightning in a bottle.  In the NFL the lightning is getting the right Starting QB / HC combo.    During the super bowl era, this is a list of how long each Starting QB/HC combo was together before winning their first champhionship together.  A couple of notes, Lombardi/Starr won NFL championships together before the Super Bowl era. Stram/Dawson's first championship together was an AFL championship

Next, a review of this list makes a strong case that Joe Gibbs is the greatest coach in NFL history. 

The mean average of time together before winning the first championship in the super bowl era is 2.5  Years.  Only once were a coach and starting QB together for more than four years before winning their first championship together. (Ken Stabler/ John Madden in 1976).

In terms of winning a championship, the Bills are in nearly uncharted waters vs history.  
 

Season    QB-Coach Combo    First Championship Together
1966    Bart Starr*MVP-Vince Lombardi    Year 2
1967    Bart Starr*MVP-Vince Lombardi (2)    Year 2
1968    Joe Namath*MVP-Weeb Ewbank    Year 3
1969    Len Dawson*MVP-Hank Stram    Year 1
1970    Johnny Unitas*-Don McCafferty    Year 8
1971    Roger Staubach*MVP-Tom Landry    Year 2
1972    Bob Griese*-Don Shula    Year 3
1973    Bob Griese*-Don Shula (2)    Year 3
1974    Terry Bradshaw*-Chuck Noll    Year 4
1975    Terry Bradshaw*-Chuck Noll (2)    Year 4
1976    Ken Stabler*-John Madden    Year 6
1977    Roger Staubach*-Tom Landry (2)    Year 2
1978    Terry Bradshaw*MVP-Chuck Noll (3)    Year 4
1979    Terry Bradshaw*MVP-Chuck Noll (4)    Year 4
1980    Jim PlunkettMVP-Tom Flores    Year 1
1981    Joe Montana*MVP-Bill Walsh    Year 3
1982    Joe Theismann-Joe Gibbs    Year 2
1983    Jim Plunkett-Tom Flores (2)    Year 1
1984    Joe Montana*MVP-Bill Walsh (2)    Year 3
1985    Jim McMahon-Mike Ditka    Year 4
1986    Phil SimmsMVP-Bill Parcells    Year 3
1987    Doug WilliamsMVP-Joe Gibbs (2)    Year 2
1988    Joe Montana*-Bill Walsh (3)    Year 3
1989    Joe Montana*MVP-George Seifert    Year 1
1990    Jeff Hostetler-Bill Parcells (2)    Year 1
1991    Mark RypienMVP-Joe Gibbs (3)    Year 4
1992    Troy Aikman*MVP-Jimmy Johnson    Year 3
1993    Troy Aikman*-Jimmy Johnson (2)    Year 3
1994    Steve Young*MVP-George Seifert (2)    Year 3
1995    Troy Aikman*-Barry Switzer    Year 2
1996    Brett Favre*-Mike Holmgren    Year 3
1997    John Elway*-Mike Shanahan    Year 3
1998    John Elway*MVP-Mike Shanahan (2)    Year 3
1999    Kurt Warner*MVP-Dick Vermeil    Year 2
2000    Trent Dilfer-Brian Billick    Year 1
2001    Tom BradyMVP-Bill Belichick    Year 2
2002    Brad Johnson-Jon Gruden    Year 1
2003    Tom BradyMVP-Bill Belichick (2)    Year 2
2004    Tom Brady-Bill Belichick (3)    Year 2
2005    Ben Roethlisberger-Bill Cowher    Year 2
2006    Peyton Manning*MVP-Tony Dungy    Year 4
2007    Eli ManningMVP-Tom Coughlin    Year 3
2008    Ben Roethlisberger-Mike Tomlin    Year 2
2009    Drew BreesMVP-Sean Payton    Year 3
2010    Aaron RodgersMVP-Mike McCarthy    Year 3
2011    Eli ManningMVP-Tom Coughlin (2)    Year 3
2012    Joe FlaccoMVP-John Harbaugh    Year 4
2013    Russell Wilson-Pete Carroll    Year 2
2014    Tom BradyMVP-Bill Belichick (4)    Year 2
2015    Peyton Manning*-Gary Kubiak    Year 1
2016    Tom BradyMVP-Bill Belichick (5)    Year 2
2017    Nick FolesMVP-Doug Pederson    Year 1
2018    Tom Brady-Bill Belichick (6)    Year 2
2019    Patrick MahomesMVP-Andy Reid    Year 2
2020    Tom BradyMVP-Bruce Arians    Year 2
2021    Matthew Stafford-Sean McVay    Year 1

 

Ah. We must need a new Quarterback.

[Augie]

20 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Patience?  We've been to the playoffs four of the last five years after patiently waiting 17 years.  We'd be nuts to fire McDermott.

 

That’s all that needs to be said, really.

 

He’s still there because he gets results. If not, he would have been fired already. And look at that top 5 group. They were HC’s decades longer, and other than Bellichick they don’t exactly have a collection of rings….and BB could only do it with Brady. It’s hard to win a Super Bowl. 

[SWATeam]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Ah. We must need a new Quarterback.

I just knew that draft pick was going to sink this organization!

[Augie]

11 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

I just knew that draft pick was going to sink this organization!

 

But I must say he’s a well shaven young man. 

[Chaos]

2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Kelly and Levy made their first Super Bowl together after in their fifth year following an AFC Championship game loss in '88 and a divisional round loss in '89.  We may lose the next four Super Bowls.

I was attempting to evaluate the patterns of the winners. 

[Tanoros]

22 hours ago, Chaos said:

I think its funny that people thumbs down or puke on the first post in the thread which expresses no opinions and simply lists out a series of facts.  A lot of people don't like facts. 

In his current tenure Andy Reid got his first super bowl appearance quite early. Chiefs fans did not wait long. 

You said, “in almost any other fan base McDermott would be on the hot seat” which isn’t a, “fact” it’s an opinion, and it’s that statement that drew the emoji’s such as the puke emoji. Dude, you don’t even remember your own post, or, and I believe this proves it, your just trolling. 

[Nextmanup]

2 hours ago, Augie said:

 

That’s all that needs to be said, really.

 

He’s still there because he gets results. If not, he would have been fired already. And look at that top 5 group. They were HC’s decades longer, and other than Bellichick they don’t exactly have a collection of rings….and BB could only do it with Brady. It’s hard to win a Super Bowl. 

Depends on how you define "results."  As some point, his "results" are going to need to be better than they have been to  date.  He should be replaced if he can't get us a championship, and as I have been saying for 2 or 3 years now, the day will come when Pegula will have to make that decision.

Unless we win a SB first, of course!

 

Another couple years of not winning it all, or maybe not even getting a SB appearance, and I would pray to God he'd be on the hot seat if not canned.

 

 

[Einstein]

23 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Patience?  We've been to the playoffs four of the last five years after patiently waiting 17 years.  We'd be nuts to fire McDermott.

 

The idea that we waited 17 years for only playoff appearances almost seems sadder than not getting there at all.

[Augie]

3 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Depends on how you define "results."  As some point, his "results" are going to need to be better than they have been to  date.  He should be replaced if he can't get us a championship, and as I have been saying for 2 or 3 years now, the day will come when Pegula will have to make that decision.

Unless we win a SB first, of course!

 

Another couple years of not winning it all, or maybe not even getting a SB appearance, and I would pray to God he'd be on the hot seat if not canned.

 

 

 

Yes, I/we have endured some of what you have been posting. Results are things like going to the playoffs 4 of 5 years and being the Super Bowl favorite according to Las Vegas. Little things like that. It’s not just my opinion. It’s big boys.

 

But you feel free to be you.  I’m sure you were class valedictorian and have very high standards. 

[Einstein]

3 hours ago, Augie said:

And look at that top 5 group. They were HC’s decades longer

 

5 head coaches were hired the year that McDermott was.

 

2 have been to a Super Bowl. 1 has been to multiple Super Bowls and won a Super Bowl. 3 Have been fired (one of those fired had a winning record and a playoff win). And 1 is McDermott.

[Chaos]

17 minutes ago, Tanoros said:

You said, “in almost any other fan base McDermott would be on the hot seat” which isn’t a, “fact” it’s an opinion, and it’s that statement that drew the emoji’s such as the puke emoji. Dude, you don’t even remember your own post, or, and I believe this proves it, your just trolling. 

Fair point

[Einstein]

3 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Yes, I/we have endured some of what you have been posting. Results are things like going to the playoffs 4 of 5 years and being the Super Bowl favorite according to Las Vegas. Little things like that. It’s not just my opinion. It’s big boys.

 

But you feel free to be you.  I’m sure you were class valedictorian and have very high standards. 

 

When I started my business, I just wanted to earn an extra $1000 per month to support my family. That’s all I craved.

 

Then $3000 months came and it was gold. We celebrated them. Cried (happy tears) over them. Suddenly $1000 months weren’t as amazing.
 

Then we hit $7000 months and $3000 didn’t seem as great anymore.

 

Then we hit $15000 months and $7000 was an afterthought.

 

Then we hit $30000 months and $15000 months were disappointing.

 

etc

 

Imagine if I had gotten to $1000 - my original goal - and decided “this is good enough”. An entire company wouldn’t exist in the way that it does today. Employees with families to feed wouldn’t have their job. Etc.

 

It is okay to adjust expectations when you reach higher success.

 

It is okay to say “great job on reaching the original goal, but we need you to reach a higher goal now”.

[Tanoros]

28 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Depends on how you define "results."  As some point, his "results" are going to need to be better than they have been to  date.  He should be replaced if he can't get us a championship, and as I have been saying for 2 or 3 years now, the day will come when Pegula will have to make that decision.

Unless we win a SB first, of course!

 

Another couple years of not winning it all, or maybe not even getting a SB appearance, and I would pray to God he'd be on the hot seat if not canned.

 

 

It’s fine to feel that way, but you also have to acknowledge that it’s not a given that a coach comes in and does better either. If the organization was to move on from McDermott, it has to be for someone specific, not just anyone. 
 

The way we are constructed now with Beane/McDermott/Allen, we are in a place where we will be competitive and able to beat any team for years on end. Which also means, we have a shot at a Super Bowl for years on end. 
 

Beane has shown great ability drafting, trading, and signing contracts leading to a great roster year over year. 
 

McDermott has built a family orientated culture, which has lead to brotherhood on field, these players will run through a wall for each other (the Miami game this year is exhibit A). Besides the culture he has built, he brings a championship defense with him. Additionally, he has shown the ability to be more aggressive as Josh and the offense grew. Which is proof of his growth mindset. Which also means, there is better than good chance he learns from things such as 13 seconds (I swear, so many feel the way they do because of emotions from 13 seconds and not logic, which is fine, but not how super bowls are won). 
 

Allen can power ANY offense. With the league being the way it is, we are in a perfect position to take calculated risks at the next up and coming hot commodity at offensive coordinator, and who wouldn’t want to work with Allen for a chance to be a head coach? 
 

To me it makes more sense to take our gambles at O coordinator rather than on a brand new coach. Obviously if we get a new coach we aren’t going the defensive route, or else we stay McDermott. Better to risk an unknown at O coordinator than at head coach. Plus, this regime has already shown they will move on after 1 year if it doesn’t work out. 
 

We don’t need perfection to win a Super Bowl. What we need is to have a chance year over year. The NFL is full of injuries and other funky stuff each season. Being a serious contender every season increases the odds of getting a Super Bowl. 
 

Wishing and hoping is nice and all, but we know what we have. And what have is more than capable of getting a Super Bowl. Or do you not feel this current team can’t compete with everyone? 

14 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Fair point

Which point 😉

Edited November 20, 2022 by Tanoros

[Augie]

9 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

When I started my business, I just wanted to earn an extra $1000 per month to support my family. That’s all I craved.

 

Then $3000 months came and it was gold. We celebrated them. Cried (happy tears) over them. Suddenly $1000 months weren’t as amazing.
 

Then we hit $7000 months and $3000 didn’t seem as great anymore.

 

Then we hit $15000 months and $7000 was an afterthought.

 

Then we hit $30000 months and $15000 months were disappointing.

 

etc

 

Imagine if I had gotten to $1000 - my original goal - and decided “this is good enough”. An entire company wouldn’t exist in the way that it does today. Employees with families to feed wouldn’t have their job. Etc.

 

It is okay to adjust expectations when you reach higher success.

 

It is okay to say “great job on reaching the original goal, but we need you to reach a higher goal now”.

 

You seem to be doing a great job, and I’m happy for you. But this is the big leagues. If viewed as an iceberg, you are nowhere near getting above the water line. You seem to have a nice little business. I wish you well, I really do. 

 

I’m happy for you, but I’m a bit concerned that you think your world is equivalent to the NFL. I don’t know what you do, but I bet you are not competing with 31 other billionaires who are out to crush you. It’s a spectrum. Selling hot dogs on the side walks of NYC can make for you a nice life. Being an NFL owner is a bit different. Most people are in between. 

[Tanoros]

30 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

When I started my business, I just wanted to earn an extra $1000 per month to support my family. That’s all I craved.

 

Then $3000 months came and it was gold. We celebrated them. Cried (happy tears) over them. Suddenly $1000 months weren’t as amazing.
 

Then we hit $7000 months and $3000 didn’t seem as great anymore.

 

Then we hit $15000 months and $7000 was an afterthought.

 

Then we hit $30000 months and $15000 months were disappointing.

 

etc

 

Imagine if I had gotten to $1000 - my original goal - and decided “this is good enough”. An entire company wouldn’t exist in the way that it does today. Employees with families to feed wouldn’t have their job. Etc.

 

It is okay to adjust expectations when you reach higher success.

 

It is okay to say “great job on reaching the original goal, but we need you to reach a higher goal now”.

It’s not even close to the same. Building a business isn’t the same as taking a dice roll on a new coach. 
 

As far as binding something, McDermott has built a culture any fanbase would dream of having, and we’d be lucky to get from a new coach. What has McDermott shown that makes you believe we should move on? Is 13 seconds the only thing? Or is it because we haven’t won’t a Super Bowl? 
 

Having a perfect NFL roster, including head coach isn’t going to guarantee anything, because of injuries and flukiness of the NFL season, and you want perfection. Having a team that can play with anyone year over year, gives a better chance of winning a Super Bowl.
 

Seriously, how many coaches out there are better than McDermott currently? Would you be willing to take a gamble on a first time head coach? That could set us back years if it doesn’t work out, years that we could be right in the hunt having a chance at a Super Bowl. 
 

The chances are better than great that a first time coach will make mistakes and have to learn from them. Lord forbid that mistake come in post season, or else we’ll have a fanbase rallying to start over again. 
 

Buffalo is in a prime position to be in the hunt for a Super Bowl every year for the next 10+ years. We are more than capable of winning a Super Bowl this season and for the foreseeable future, yet you want to gamble that away because of 13 seconds? Or because we haven’t won a Super Bowl in general? 
 

Back to the growth of your business analogy, since McDermott started as a head coach, he has shown growth. He has gotten better at challenges, better game management, grew with the offense (more aggressive 4th down calls, even more aggressive 4th and goals calls). Not to mention his defense literally becoming the new, “hot” defense to stop the new hot offenses. However, growing a business isn’t the same as taking a roll of the dice on a new coach. The business growth analogy, works better when comparing to a rebuild such as McDermott/Beane did. Cut the fat, build a culture, bring people in who fit that culture, budget accordingly (FA contracts and re-signing contracts). Taking a new coach is like hiring a new manager. I’m sure some of them didn’t work out too. 
 

Quite frankly, McDermott hasn’t shown any indication that is peaked out. But let’s just say he is (which is beyond absurd, but anyway), as he is now, he is more than good enough to win a Super Bowl.
 

Look at Pete Carroll for instance, yes he got a Super Bowl early, and had two appearances. But that was off of the back of an insanely dominant defense, and McDermott can do the same, only he has Allen (Russ wasn’t special those first couple seasons, he was just elusive and a gamer). Besides those first couple of seasons, Carroll has largely been in the same boat as McDermott. I’d personally choose McDermott over Carroll, largely because Pete hasn’t shown a willingness to adapt his offense. McDermotts already done that.

 

What about Harbaugh, Belichick, or Tomlin? You’d prefer a coach such as them over McDermott? All have super Bowls, are not offensive coaches, and I personally would rather keep McDermott. I don’t see anything either of them would offer that McDermott doesn’t already bring. 

[Einstein]

23 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

You seem to be doing a great job, and I’m happy for you. But this is the big leagues. If viewed as an iceberg, you are nowhere near getting above the water line. You seem to have a nice little business. I wish you well, I really do. 

 

I’m happy for you, but I’m a bit concerned that you think your world is equivalent to the NFL. I don’t know what you do, but I bet you are not competing with 31 other billionaires who are out to crush you. It’s a spectrum. Selling hot dogs on the side walks of NYC can make for you a nice life. Being an NFL owner is a bit different. Most people are in between. 

 

It was an analogy, not a 1:1 comparison.

 

[Einstein]

19 minutes ago, Tanoros said:

It’s not even close to the same. Building a business isn’t the same as taking a dice roll on a new coach. 

 

Is there any amount of time that would make you want to move on?

 

For example, if we get to year 10 of McDermott and we still haven’t played in a Super Bowl (but are still getting to the playoffs), is that good enough for you?

 

How about 15 years? At that point, Allen’s career would be close to over and wasted.

 

20 years?

 

Are you okay with a perpetual “good enough” situation or is there a limit to your patience?

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

When I started my business, I just wanted to earn an extra $1000 per month to support my family. That’s all I craved.

 

Then $3000 months came and it was gold. We celebrated them. Cried (happy tears) over them. Suddenly $1000 months weren’t as amazing.
 

Then we hit $7000 months and $3000 didn’t seem as great anymore.

 

Then we hit $15000 months and $7000 was an afterthought.

 

Then we hit $30000 months and $15000 months were disappointing.

 

etc

 

Imagine if I had gotten to $1000 - my original goal - and decided “this is good enough”. An entire company wouldn’t exist in the way that it does today. Employees with families to feed wouldn’t have their job. Etc.

 

It is okay to adjust expectations when you reach higher success.

 

It is okay to say “great job on reaching the original goal, but we need you to reach a higher goal now”.

 

Imagine if your goal was 50k a month and you fired yourself.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, Tanoros said:

To me it makes more sense to take our gambles at O coordinator rather than on a brand new coach. Obviously if we get a new coach we aren’t going the defensive route, or else we stay McDermott. Better to risk an unknown at O coordinator than at head coach. Plus, this regime has already shown they will move on after 1 year if it doesn’t work out. 
 

 

Offensive coordinator is not the issue this year. Despite our recent offensive slump the Bills are still the #1 offense in total yards and #2 in scoring. And the Bills went through a similar midseason slump last year with Daboll who is now working his magic with the Giants. The difference though is that I would argue this year's slump is 75% Josh Allen's doing. Drive killing INT's and many that take points off the board. Plus a couple fumbles mixed in.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

31 minutes ago, Tanoros said:

What about Harbaugh, Belichick, or Tomlin? You’d prefer a coach such as them over McDermott? All have super Bowls, are not offensive coaches, and I personally would rather keep McDermott. I don’t see anything either of them would offer that McDermott doesn’t already bring. 

I feel like Tomlin and Harbaugh are one and the same and very similar to McDermott. They are both great CEO's as is McDermott. Lots of regular season success and some post season success mixed in. Both Harbaugh and Tomlin were fortunate to win Super Bowls relatively early in their coaching careers.

 

 

35 minutes ago, Tanoros said:

 

Quite frankly, McDermott hasn’t shown any indication that is peaked out. But let’s just say he is (which is beyond absurd, but anyway), as he is now, he is more than good enough to win a Super Bowl.
 

 

 

It could be a different story by the end of this season.

 

2020- Win Division, 13-3 #2 seed AFC championship game appearance 2-1 post season record

 

2021- Win Division 11-6 #3 seed Divisional round appearance 1-1 post season record

 

Hypothetical

2022- second place division finish? 11-6 record? #5 seed ? 0-1 postseason record?

[Tanoros]

43 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Is there any amount of time that would make you want to move on?

 

For example, if we get to year 10 of McDermott and we still haven’t played in a Super Bowl (but are still getting to the playoffs), is that good enough for you?

 

How about 15 years? At that point, Allen’s career would be close to over and wasted.

 

20 years?

 

Are you okay with a perpetual “good enough” situation or is there a limit to your patience?

Projecting that far out is too hard though. It obviously depends on what happens. If we were to be as good as we are now and last season perpetually for 10+ years, it would come down to why (specifically) that we didn’t get to the Super Bowl? Another mistake like 13 seconds would be very hard to overlook, as it would show a lack of growth. But what if the losses came down to a player making a key mistake, or us having unlucky injuries, thus losing our edge (Think Tre White being out last post season, that was a key loss). It really depends. We can only look at it here and now and as it is, there has to be a specific coach in mind, and even that isn’t guaranteed. 
 

This season isn’t over, let’s see how it ends and how the team performs down the stretch. Allen has always improved from the start of the season to end. Let’s see what that is this year, and what that means for our offense. 

[Tanoros]

47 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Offensive coordinator is not the issue this year. Despite our recent offensive slump the Bills are still the #1 offense in total yards and #2 in scoring. And the Bills went through a similar midseason slump last year with Daboll who is now working his magic with the Giants. The difference though is that I would argue this year's slump is 75% Josh Allen's doing. Drive killing INT's and many that take points off the board. Plus a couple fumbles mixed in.

I don’t personally think offense is the issue either. Most who want a new coach want an offensive coach, and my point is, we can do just fine taking the next hot thing at o coordinator who can parlay that into a head coach gig. 
 

Between a top offense with Allen and a top defense. What more can anyone want? A team like that is always in the hunt for a Super Bowl. It comes down to how the season unfolds like injuries, weather, personal stuff, etc. 

35 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

I feel like Tomlin and Harbaugh are one and the same and very similar to McDermott. They are both great CEO's as is McDermott. Lots of regular season success and some post season success mixed in. Both Harbaugh and Tomlin were fortunate to win Super Bowls relatively early in their coaching careers.

 

 

 

It could be a different story by the end of this season.

 

2020- Win Division, 13-3 #2 seed AFC championship game appearance 2-1 post season record

 

2021- Win Division 11-6 #3 seed Divisional round appearance 1-1 post season record

 

Hypothetical

2022- second place division finish? 11-6 record? #5 seed ? 0-1 postseason record?

Even though last offseason wasn’t as good as the one before, the team was, and we were 13 seconds away. Yes it’s on McDermott, but the team as a whole DID grow even though the record in the post season didn’t. Yes wins matter, but we can’t deny the team itself didn’t grow and McDermott was driving the boat. 
 

We have no clue about this season. No reason to speculate. But as you said, our offense is top notch, as is our defense. Id argue, that this years team (when mostly healthy…big if I know) is better than last years team. Again, growth/improvement. Let’s see how it ends before we make assumptions, but the team IS better. No argument there.