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Why exactly are we favored by 3.5 in Baltimore?


Adamb412
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1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said:

Because the guys in the desert like to make $, and we are the better team.  What’s up with the hot take when we don’t know injuries or anything else for that matter in a team that lost half their starters do the 22, yet advanced 500 yards to Miami’s 220 ish and we were based.

 

Dude, we lose one game and the sky is falling.  Rookie move.

 

Have you ANY IDEA how many injuries this team has sustained in a week?!?!! Are you under the delusion that we won't have 10+ players on the injury report?

 

Evidently not. The sky isn't falling, but key players are FALLING OUT and if you're too blind to see that then no one can help you.

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I figured the line would be the other way around-- and that is before I heard Benford is definitely out. OL is banged up, as well. Jackson has been on fire.  I'm thinking the Bills will likely be 2-2, then get some players back and reset.

One thing we know-- Bills will not win if it is decided by one score or less .

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Just now, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

Have you ANY IDEA how many injuries this team has sustained in a week?!?!! Are you under the delusion that we won't have 10+ players on the injury report?

 

Evidently not. The sky isn't falling, but key players are FALLING OUT and if you're too blind to see that then no one can help you.


I’ll take a shot at who plays:

 

Allen

Dawkins-Saffold-Morse-??-Brown

Singletary-Moss-Cook

Gilliam

Knox-Morris

Diggs-Davis-McKenzie-Crowder-Shakir

 

Von-Rousseau-AJ-Boogie-Shaq

Jones-Oliver-Settle-Bryant

Edmunds-Milano

Johnson

Elam-Ingram 

Johnson-Poyer

 

That means we have a noticeable downgrade likely at CB and RG, assuming Jackson and Bates can’t go.  
 

Who’s roster would you take on Sunday?  
 

Both Offenses are ultra-dependent on the QB and don’t have much of a traditional running game.  Both have some legit weapons in the passing game.  
 

Would you rather have Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson?

 

Would you rather have that Bills Defense or the Ravens Defense? 
 

I think most would choose Josh Allen and the Bills Defense. 
 

That’s why they’re favored. 

 

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1 hour ago, Adamb412 said:

But on paper Baltimore has a slight advantage IMO 

 

I don't want this to come off the wrong way, but there can be a big difference between one's individual opinion and that of the sportsbook community that is backing up their claims with money.

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2 hours ago, Adamb412 said:

I don't get it....

 

We just lost to Miami, we have a ton of injuries, we are both 2 and 1, the game is in Baltimore. Baltimore going to have revenge on their minds since the last time we saw them was the division game during covid.... What am I missing?

17.  Get it

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2 hours ago, Adamb412 said:

I'm not even factoring doom and gloom. Even if we won in Miami I see this game as a pickem

Give me the Bills -110 for $1100, then. 

 

The Ravens defense is atrocious. I make it Bills -5.5 with the guys we know are definitely out next week.

8 minutes ago, Airseven said:

That line has got to change by the weekend. Bills are absolutely the dog in this one. Could get ugly.

Lol no. This is how they build those big fancy buildings in the desert, when casuals completely overreact to a single data point.

 

The Bills might lose but the look ahead line was Bills -4, so this is a half point move with the performance and almost entirely due to injuries. You should bet your house at Ravens +3.5 if you believe the Bills are actually underdogs. 

49 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I would not consider us the favorites given all of our injuries if we were even halfway healthy I would call this a win

Bet the house then. You're getting a home team you believe is better on the plus side of the biggest key number in NFL betting.

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1 hour ago, par73 said:

I figured the line would be the other way around-- and that is before I heard Benford is definitely out. OL is banged up, as well. Jackson has been on fire.  I'm thinking the Bills will likely be 2-2, then get some players back and reset.

One thing we know-- Bills will not win if it is decided by one score or less .

Do you know what a truly elite CB is worth to a point spread? It's around 0.75 points and I'm talking a dude like Jaire Alexander. The cluster injuries are a concern, of course, but over valuing a player when it comes to overall team performance is why the public gets absolutely smoked betting NFL games. 

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You're missing the fact that Baltimore has given up the most passing yards through 3 weeks, which works for the best QB in the league. Their defense has been awful.

 

Granted that's inflated by the Miami game, but as we just saw, Josh is worth at least two Tuas. But even if you dismiss their Miami game as an outlier, they also just gave up 26 to the Pats (lol). They also gave up the most passing yards per game last year. I personally think Baltimore has some serious issues and am surprised by how many still rank them as one of the very top AFC teams. I've even seen them in some Super Bowl picks. I don't even think they take their division.

Edited by Nelius
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 Lets see, not only is Allen the best player in the game he leads the league in passing, Diggs leads in receiving, the offense is 2nd in ypg and 3rd in points per game. The defense leads the league in yards allowed per game and is 4th in points per game giving up an average of 12.7. We are also the deepest team in the league.

 

There's a list of reasons why we are favored.

 

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Because Josh Allen and this team are that good. Baltimore lost to Miami as well.

 

Coaching staff needs to get the house in order because this team has the potential win every game. Obviously you won't and players have good and bad days, good and bad game plans. 

 

Miami was a sloppy sloppy game.

 

We're on to Baltimore.

Edited by ArtVandalay
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Because the oddsmakers do not give a rat's a** who the better team is and are in no way trying to make a statement or an assertion regarding who they think is better or by how much.  They operate by trying to balance where the money comes in.  If they think that the betting public will place more money on Buffalo, then the line will favor Buffalo.  The more money that comes in during the week on Buffalo, then the more that line will increase to entice bettors to go the other way, thus ensuring the sports book a profit regardless of outcome.   

Edited by cwater10
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This topic is OLD. A NEW topic should be started unless there is a very specific reason to revive this one.

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