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Jordan Poyer: a guess @ his new contract.


Estro
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Fitzpatrick just signed for north of $18M per yr & his market value on spotrac.com was around $15M per, representing a 20% premium.

 

Poyer currently has a market value of $10.7M on spotrac & a 20% premium would come in around $12.85M per.

 

Yes, but you cant compare a 31 yr old Poyer to a 25 yr old in Fitzpatrick say most Bills fans.  Okay fair, but how about Harrison Smith.  Smith signed a 4 yr - $64M deal when he was 32 years old ( a full year older than Poyer is now.  He saw $26.4M of that deal guaranteed & paid out within the first 2 years.

 

Very tough negotiation for the Bills. There are so many moving parts. Whatever Poyer gets Hyde would want almost the same thing if not a bit more come next season.

I dont think Beane will want to go north of a 2 year - 26.5M extension. Id expect that to be the magic #, although it wouldnt surprise me to find out Rosenhaus is asking for $16M per, in which I dont think youll see a deal worked out

Edited by Estro
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I believe poyer will get a 2 year extension added onto the end of his current contract. I also believe Hyde will then get 1 year added to the end of his. Keeping the best safety tandem in the league paired up for the next 3 seasons. At that point, that’ll be it for those 2. 

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2 years $30 million in new money. Guaranteed around $20 million.

 

Add in his 2022 money and it’s about a 3 year $40 million deal. $13.3 million average. Puts him in the top 10 for safety contracts. He’d be the 2nd highest paid safety over 30 years old.

 

Technically he’d be the highest paid over 30 because Harrison Smith’s deal isn’t as scary as it looks. It was basically a 2 year $26 million deal. Originally I was thinking 2 years $24 million for Poyer.

 

 

Edited by Buffalo_Stampede
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1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

2 years $30 million in new money. Guaranteed around $20 million.

 

Add in his 2022 money and it’s about a 3 year $40 million deal. $13.3 million average. Puts him in the top 10 for safety contracts. He’d be the 2nd highest paid safety over 30 years old.

 

Technically he’d be the highest paid over 30 because Harrison Smith’s deal isn’t as scary as it looks. It was basically a 2 year $26 million deal. Originally I was thinking 2 years $24 million for Poyer.

 

 

Seems rich to me for a 31 year old safety.  I mean JC Jackson, a top 5 CB in his prime just got a 5 year 16.5AAV / $40M guaranteed during FA.  Tyrann Mathieu and Justin Reed both got 3/$33M.  If Poyer makes anything north of that, Bills played their hand wrong.  Could have got JC, traded Poyer (picked up Mathieu), and used your #1 on BPA and not forced to take a CB out of need (Bean admitted this during post draft press conference).  Most of this is Monday Morning QBing…I know.

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I wouldn't mind keeping Poyer through his age 33 season, which would mean a 2 year extension, but it would have to be at the right price. Beane and McDermott seem keep and reward their own when they can. I know what people think of and say about the cap, but we also have Edmunds (multiple varying opinions I know), Knox, and Oliver on deck for new contracts. Unless it on par with his current AAV, I think they may let him test the FA waters and see what they have in their younger guys. 

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I'm not sure I'd do it and I love Jordan Poyer. Have been arguing that he is a top end safety (and the better of the two for the Bills) pretty much since his first year here. I remember passionately defending him here after the 2018 season when we had folks arguing the Bills should go after Landon Collins to replace him because he was a better hitter - seriously, that was a debate. The same Landon Collins who 2 years out from signing a 6 year deal is on the street. I can't remember who the debate was with but 1970 is calling that guy and wants its smash mouth football back. 

 

However, the Bills have to start looking to the future at the safety spot. We know there has been interest in taking one in round 2 two of the last three seasons. We had it confirmed by insiders that Kyle Dugger was their pick over AJE if he lasted to them in 2020 and then Brandon Beane told us after this last draft that one of the 3 guys they were eyeing at the end of round 2 went between their first trade back and their second, which the Embedded video basically gave away as Bryan Cook the safety out of Cincinnati. 

 

Poyer is just turned 31. Hyde will be 32 during the season. Their contracts are the wrong way round in terms of ideal end dates. If I didn't already have Micah here two more years I'd extend Poyer two more years, but Micah is under contract a year longer. They count $15m against the cap in 2022. Micah already counts $10m against the cap next year. Is there a deal where Poyer signs for two more years but keeps his 2023 cap hit down to around $5m so that essentially they cost the same as a pair this year and next? Maybe.... but it would probably mean a mammoth cap charge for him in 2024 when Micah is likely gone otherwise there is no incentive for him to sign.

 

My ideal world would be to move on from Micah after 2022 and Jordan after 2023, but their contracts are the other way around and that makes it tricky. Committing big money to safeties in their 30s, even two as talented and tenured as Poyer and Hyde who were the first pieces of the puzzle in the McDermott era and have been great Bills.... I just can't get myself to a place where I think that is sensible. 

 

I was listening to the discussion Howard and Nate had the other morning on my commute today. The Bills have Jordan Poyer, Dawson Knox, Devin Singletary, Tremaine Edmunds, Ed Oliver, Micah Hyde, Gabe Davis and Tyler Bass coming up over the next two offseasons - all of which while carrying deals for Josh, Stef and Von that they have no route out of in that time and Tre and Matt Milano (post-restructure) who are escapable but at a big cost. Now there are always ways you can account for money to make it work in cap terms, but eventually among that group of 8 guys the Bills are going to have to prioritise and to me getting younger and cheaper at safety is one of the simpler solutions. 

 

I am persuadable if Jordan has another all-pro level season, but as we stand here today I'd let him walk. And then start the campaign to put him on the wall. Great Bill.  

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His current deal.  If he doesn't like it, he doesn't have to play.

 

You don't sign a 31 year old safety to top dollar, especially a guy who at one point thought would never play again.

 

Poyer has one unbelievable year and turns into a diva.  Guy was a straight disaster in that KC game.

 

Bills need to get younger at safety anyways.  This should be the last year of Hyde and Poyer.  Hyde can mentor Poyers replacement next year.

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https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/sort-value/safety/limit-100/

 

Link to safety contracts above.  It seems like this shouldn’t be that big of an issue.  Even a deal like Harrison Smith’s wouldn’t be prohibitive.  Honestly, it would be helpful in many ways since it looks big at 4/64 but is really a 2/26 that pushes much of the cap hit to year 3.  That seems too easy so there’s got to be reason that hasn’t happened yet - and it is probably because Poyer wants more than that.
 

Due to the Bills and Poyer keeping this largely in house we really don’t know:

- what Poyer wants

- what the Bills are offering or

- what Poyer will do if a new deal isn’t worked out.

 

That last one is where it gets interesting.  I think this gets worked out, but if it doesn’t I don’t think the answer is that Poyer plays out his deal without incident so that the Bills can tag him next offseason if he balls out again.  The Bills didn’t exactly plan for this by bolstering the safety position with quality depth either.  Again, I think this gets worked out but that’s because the Bills are going to have to pay Poyer.  This is it for him, he has earned a much better contract than what he has currently.  That and his age dictate that the time is now for him to get paid and he has to do everything he can to make that happen.  Realistically the Bills don’t have any other real options than to pay him.

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His age is a concern. I hope they can find common ground that is fair for both sides. He is going on the north side of 30. Deal or no deal I would expect Beane will be looking at safety's in next year draft. Probably not Rd 1 but they are going to need to find his replacement soon.

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7 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

His current deal.  If he doesn't like it, he doesn't have to play.

 

You don't sign a 31 year old safety to top dollar, especially a guy who at one point thought would never play again.

 

Poyer has one unbelievable year and turns into a diva.  Guy was a straight disaster in that KC game.

 

Bills need to get younger at safety anyways.  This should be the last year of Hyde and Poyer.  Hyde can mentor Poyers replacement next year.


If this doesn't get resolved, then that's probably his move - either “retiring” or sitting out with an “injury”.  If he says “pay me or trade me to a team that will or I’m retiring” then what’s the Bills play?  Moving from Jordan Poyer to Jaquan Johnson or Siran Neal isn’t going to help this team win a championship.

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37 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

His current deal.  If he doesn't like it, he doesn't have to play.

 

You don't sign a 31 year old safety to top dollar, especially a guy who at one point thought would never play again.

 

Poyer has one unbelievable year and turns into a diva.  Guy was a straight disaster in that KC game.

 

Bills need to get younger at safety anyways.  This should be the last year of Hyde and Poyer.  Hyde can mentor Poyers replacement next year.

 

I disagree with the bolded, but overall my conclusion is the same. 

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I would be reluctant to shell out more money to a guy 32 in 2023, after this current contract ends. Especially if it impacts resigning Knox, Davis, and Oliver down the road. Play out this year & release

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3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I'm not sure I'd do it and I love Jordan Poyer. Have been arguing that he is a top end safety (and the better of the two for the Bills) pretty much since his first year here. I remember passionately defending him here after the 2018 season when we had folks arguing the Bills should go after Landon Collins to replace him because he was a better hitter - seriously, that was a debate. The same Landon Collins who 2 years out from signing a 6 year deal is on the street. I can't remember who the debate was with but 1970 is calling that guy and wants its smash mouth football back. 

 

However, the Bills have to start looking to the future at the safety spot. We know there has been interest in taking one in round 2 two of the last three seasons. We had it confirmed by insiders that Kyle Dugger was their pick over AJE if he lasted to them in 2020 and then Brandon Beane told us after this last draft that one of the 3 guys they were eyeing at the end of round 2 went between their first trade back and their second, which the Embedded video basically gave away as Bryan Cook the safety out of Cincinnati. 

 

Poyer is just turned 31. Hyde will be 32 during the season. Their contracts are the wrong way round in terms of ideal end dates. If I didn't already have Micah here two more years I'd extend Poyer two more years, but Micah is under contract a year longer. They count $15m against the cap in 2022. Micah already counts $10m against the cap next year. Is there a deal where Poyer signs for two more years but keeps his 2023 cap hit down to around $5m so that essentially they cost the same as a pair this year and next? Maybe.... but it would probably mean a mammoth cap charge for him in 2024 when Micah is likely gone otherwise there is no incentive for him to sign.

 

My ideal world would be to move on from Micah after 2022 and Jordan after 2023, but their contracts are the other way around and that makes it tricky. Committing big money to safeties in their 30s, even two as talented and tenured as Poyer and Hyde who were the first pieces of the puzzle in the McDermott era and have been great Bills.... I just can't get myself to a place where I think that is sensible. 

 

I was listening to the discussion Howard and Nate had the other morning on my commute today. The Bills have Jordan Poyer, Dawson Knox, Devin Singletary, Tremaine Edmunds, Ed Oliver, Micah Hyde, Gabe Davis and Tyler Bass coming up over the next two offseasons - all of which while carrying deals for Josh, Stef and Von that they have no route out of in that time and Tre and Matt Milano (post-restructure) who are escapable but at a big cost. Now there are always ways you can account for money to make it work in cap terms, but eventually among that group of 8 guys the Bills are going to have to prioritise and to me getting younger and cheaper at safety is one of the simpler solutions. 

 

I am persuadable if Jordan has another all-pro level season, but as we stand here today I'd let him walk. And then start the campaign to put him on the wall. Great Bill.  

 

This is exactly the problem.

 

I'm sure the Bills would love to keep Jordan Poyer, and he certainly deserves the extension.  But the timing on expiring contracts is going to force us into making some really tough decisions.  And no matter which way you look at it, Poyer seems to be one of the odd men out.

 

Considering age?  Out of the guys coming up, Poyer is the second oldest guy on the list. 

Team value?  Sean McDermott seems to prioritize the D-Line first, and secondary after.

While the other guys were drafted/developed, both of our safeties were found (fairly cheap) in free agency.

 

Not to mention, based on the agent change and his wife's comments, it really sounds like he's seeking top safety money.  No hometown discounts.

 

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3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I'm not sure I'd do it and I love Jordan Poyer. Have been arguing that he is a top end safety (and the better of the two for the Bills) pretty much since his first year here. I remember passionately defending him here after the 2018 season when we had folks arguing the Bills should go after Landon Collins to replace him because he was a better hitter - seriously, that was a debate. The same Landon Collins who 2 years out from signing a 6 year deal is on the street. I can't remember who the debate was with but 1970 is calling that guy and wants its smash mouth football back. 

 

However, the Bills have to start looking to the future at the safety spot. We know there has been interest in taking one in round 2 two of the last three seasons. We had it confirmed by insiders that Kyle Dugger was their pick over AJE if he lasted to them in 2020 and then Brandon Beane told us after this last draft that one of the 3 guys they were eyeing at the end of round 2 went between their first trade back and their second, which the Embedded video basically gave away as Bryan Cook the safety out of Cincinnati. 

 

Poyer is just turned 31. Hyde will be 32 during the season. Their contracts are the wrong way round in terms of ideal end dates. If I didn't already have Micah here two more years I'd extend Poyer two more years, but Micah is under contract a year longer. They count $15m against the cap in 2022. Micah already counts $10m against the cap next year. Is there a deal where Poyer signs for two more years but keeps his 2023 cap hit down to around $5m so that essentially they cost the same as a pair this year and next? Maybe.... but it would probably mean a mammoth cap charge for him in 2024 when Micah is likely gone otherwise there is no incentive for him to sign.

 

My ideal world would be to move on from Micah after 2022 and Jordan after 2023, but their contracts are the other way around and that makes it tricky. Committing big money to safeties in their 30s, even two as talented and tenured as Poyer and Hyde who were the first pieces of the puzzle in the McDermott era and have been great Bills.... I just can't get myself to a place where I think that is sensible. 

 

I was listening to the discussion Howard and Nate had the other morning on my commute today. The Bills have Jordan Poyer, Dawson Knox, Devin Singletary, Tremaine Edmunds, Ed Oliver, Micah Hyde, Gabe Davis and Tyler Bass coming up over the next two offseasons - all of which while carrying deals for Josh, Stef and Von that they have no route out of in that time and Tre and Matt Milano (post-restructure) who are escapable but at a big cost. Now there are always ways you can account for money to make it work in cap terms, but eventually among that group of 8 guys the Bills are going to have to prioritise and to me getting younger and cheaper at safety is one of the simpler solutions. 

 

I am persuadable if Jordan has another all-pro level season, but as we stand here today I'd let him walk. And then start the campaign to put him on the wall. Great Bill.  

I think this is exactly where Beane’s head is and rightly so.  They need to get younger and cheaper at the safety position.  Perhaps Beane has some sort of magic trick up his sleeve that we do not see, but I doubt it.  Poyer has put him in a tough spot, but he should hold firm to the plan. 

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I'd let him play out the year and walk. 

 

I get paying to keep your guys, but I think we can find a safety in the draft next year.

 

Cannot become the team of geeatrics, and I don't think Poyer is worth that big contract right now.

 

But some defense needy team will get him paid.

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