Joe Marino: Would Bills Start Season with 2nd and 3rd round rookies starting at CB? McBeane Did It Before.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

38 minutes ago, chris heff said:

I think you are right, but there could be more to it. They may not like any of the vet corners available, or they think the price is too high. Time is on the Bills side, the longer these guys are on the market the more the price drops. I doubt they sign a CB before the draft. That first round pick is going to be interesting.

We’re going on 2 offseasons without adding anything significant at CB. They definitely think Dane Jackson can start. I think with White’s injury they will add a starting caliber CB. We’ll see. They also like Cam Lewis a lot.

Edited April 14, 2022 by Buffalo_Stampede

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

Yea Worley was with the Bills briefly in 2020 - I think he actually had to play a lot vs Arizona due to injury And/or covid. He was bad. 

 

God I had wiped that totally from my mind. You are right of course he did.

[Rubes]

31 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I think they will draft one and then sign a vet after the dust settles after the draft. Vets will be cut.

 

I agree. I think Beane (and most other GMs) are waiting to see what happens in the draft and who ends up falling to them. After that they'll have an idea just how much they want or need to pursue a vet CB as well. Big difference if a good CB falls to them at #25 vs. none seem to make sense until the third round.

 

[Brandon]

2 hours ago, whorlnut said:

I agree with this. That’s another argument against a highly drafted corner. If they are indeed happy with Dane on one side of the field, then why burn a first rounder on a guy “just in case” Tre isn’t ready to start the season?  I mean, once he’s back then what?  We drafted a first round corner to hold it down until Tre is back?  Sorry…I just can’t behind that logic. 

 

That's the sticking point for me with regard to a CB at 25.  I'm sure they'd like to give Dane Jackson some decent competition, but I also think they like him and would be content with him as the #2 once White is healthy.  To me, its really just a question of Tre White's recovery.  If they expect him to make a full recovery,  then the question is,  do you burn a 1st to cover a temporary need that may only last a few weeks?  Keep in mind, also,  that a 1st may himself need half a season or more to adjust to the NFL.  By the time he's starting to play well,  Tre White should be back and all you've done (hopefully) is replace a competent #2 with a good one.  There's value in doing that,  but in a less aggressive coverage scheme that got good mileage out of Levi Wallace,  is that the best or most efficient use of resources?  I don't know and without knowing the status of Tre White in his recovery or how confident the front office is in his recovery,   it's a difficult question to answer. 

Edited April 14, 2022 by Brandon

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

Our base defense is 3 CB’s.

Right so there's only room for one starter in addition to White and Johnson.

[YoloinOhio]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

God I had wiped that totally from my mind. You are right of course he did.

I wish I could do the same  🥴

[vtnatefootball11]

6 hours ago, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:

What would we do with two high picks at corner? We have Tre White and Taron Johnson. One of those two picks would just be a backup his whole Bills career? If this were a Wink Martindale defense I might listen to a case for over-stocking that way but it's poor allocation for a zone defense where guys like Levi Wallace and Dane Jackson are functional starters, let alone backups.

 

In our base defense we start 3 corners. Taron is the the nickel corner we still need two starters on the outside.  Is this really not common knowledge? 

 

Edit:  I apologize, read this too quickly, missed that you said draft "two" corners high.  Yes, that may be unnecessary, although you could always see who pans out better and trade the other. Plus, statically speaking it is far more likely that only one, rather than both, would turn out as a good pro so if you the highest player on the board is a CB at both in both 1st and 2nd round you still take them both.  Assuming we don't sign any vet FA, we absolutely must hit on a corner that can play right away early in this draft. 

 

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is not a given that Taron is a Bill beyond 2022. 

 

Huh?? Taron just signed an extension last year through 2024 where he is getting avg of $8 mil per year. We could get out after 2022 but would cary a $5mil dead cap, which won't happen.  Bills coaches and FO have made it very clear they view him as a long term nickel starter, key piece of the defense etc..  We prioritized extending him, arguable over other key defensive pieces too.  Bills paid Levi Wallace less than $2mill last year but Taron got $8mil per, that should show you how highly they view him.  He isn't going anywhere. 

Edited April 14, 2022 by vtnatefootball11

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, vtnatefootball11 said:

 

Huh?? Taron just signed an extension last year through 2024 where he is getting avg of $8 mil per year. We could get out after 2022 but would cary a $5mil dead cap, which won't happen.  Bills coaches and FO have made it very clear they view him as a long term nickel starter, key piece of the defense etc..  We prioritized extending him, arguable over other key defensive pieces too.  Bills paid Levi Wallace less than $2mill last year but Taron got $8mil per, that should show you how highly they view him.  He isn't going anywhere. 

 

They are not going to be able to pay 9 starters on defense next year. Somewhere a concession has to be made. When Josh is $40m and Stef is $20m you can't pay 9 defensive starters. At the moment Spotrac has us with $2m cap space next year and that is with Poyer and Edmunds walking as FAs on the defensive side and Knox as a FA on offense. Even letting all three of those guys walk we will need to make space. It doesn't have to be Taron. It might not be. But he is a possible cut IMO. There are other guys at risk too or they could kick the can on some more deals. But I suspect there will be an under contract defensive starter cut next spring. 

[vtnatefootball11]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They are not going to be able to pay 9 starters on defense next year. Somewhere a concession has to be made. When Josh is $40m and Stef is $20m you can't pay 9 defensive starters. At the moment Spotrac has us with $2m cap space next year and that is with Poyer and Edmunds walking as FAs on the defensive side and Knox as a FA on offense. Even letting all three of those guys walk we will need to make space. It doesn't have to be Taron. It might not be. But he is a possible cut IMO. There are other guys at risk too or they could kick the can on some more deals. But I suspect there will be an under contract defensive starter cut next spring. 

 

I understand where you are coming in that concessions will have to be made but $5mil dead cap is pretty prohibitive.  Taron would have to have a remarkable regression in ability for Beane to even consider that. Cutting others, in addition to restructures/extensions/covering salary to bonuses etc. can free up cap space, there are plenty of ways to maneuver as we saw this offseason.  Taron being cut won't be one of them.  Plus, who knows how much the cap will increase next year.

Edited April 14, 2022 by vtnatefootball11

[GunnerBill]

Just now, vtnatefootball11 said:

 

I understand where you are coming in that concessions will have to be made but $5mil dead cap is pretty prohibitive.  Taron would have have a remarkable regression in ability for Beane to even consider that. Cutting others, in addition to restructures/extensions/covering salary to bonuses etc. can free up cap space, there are plenty of ways to maneuver as we saw this offseason.  Taron being cut won't be one of them.  

 

$5m is one of the cheapest outs the Bills have on next season's roster. It is less than they are paying paying Star to not play for them this coming year. Post 1 June it and it is $2.5m per year for 2 years. Easily manageable. There are other ways to skin the cat but I think Taron would be in play. Financially he is one of the ones that makes the most sense. And at $9.5m in cap hit for 2023 he'd be one of if not THE highest cap hit nickel corner in the league. 

[vtnatefootball11]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

$5m is one of the cheapest outs the Bills have on next season's roster. It is less than they are paying paying Star to not play for them this coming year. Post 1 June it and it is $2.5m per year for 2 years. Easily manageable. There are other ways to skin the cat but I think Taron would be in play. Financially he is one of the ones that makes the most sense. And at $9.5m in cap hit for 2023 he'd be one of if not THE highest cap hit nickel corner in the league. 

 

These are fair points and I think there is subjective room to argue just how highly the Bills FO values Taron and the nickel position generally in their system.  I don't see cutting Taron after this coming season as a serious consideration but I acknowledge it's a remote possibility as you laid out, particularly if he somehow regresses terribly or has career threatening injury or something like that in 2022.

[somnus00]

I think the problem is where we're picking. I don't see the Bills being able to get Booth or McDuffie at 25. Likely, they'll need to go with guys who have potential and need to get coached up. Luckily for us, the Bills have an excellent coaching staff.

 

CB is our biggest need. But I'd be satisfied if we came away with any 2 of:

Alontae Taylor

Tariq Woolen

Coby Bryant

Josh Williams

 

All guys with crazy potential in my opinion.

[mjt328]

4 hours ago, whorlnut said:

I agree with this. That’s another argument against a highly drafted corner. If they are indeed happy with Dane on one side of the field, then why burn a first rounder on a guy “just in case” Tre isn’t ready to start the season?  I mean, once he’s back then what?  We drafted a first round corner to hold it down until Tre is back?  Sorry…I just can’t behind that logic. 

 

Yep.  That's why Beane needs to sign a veteran cornerback with starting experience in the NFL.

He doesn't necessarily need to be Stephon Gilmore quality.  But at least someone who won't be a massive liability until White gets back.

 

It's a huge mistake to go into the draft absolutely needing any position... and then counting on that player to be ready to start Week 1.

 

Get one more decent CB, and we can do whatever we want in the draft.

 

[Big Blitz]

Tampa - 2020 Super Bowl Champs Starting secondary 

 

Knowing teams wouldn't even try to run on them (*cough get Jordan Davis cough cough*) it allowed the D line to pin their ears back and tee off.

 

Probably helped the Secondary to.  

 

 

Edited April 14, 2022 by Big Blitz

[Simon Says]

This is a much better team than the time Beane did this. I think he picks CB in round 1 and possibly another on day 3

[Motor26]

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

Tampa - 2020 Super Bowl Champs Starting secondary 

 

Knowing teams wouldn't even try to run on them (*cough get Jordan Davis cough cough*) it allowed the D line to pin their ears back and tee off.

 

Probably helped the Secondary to.  

 

 

 

I just have a hard time wanting Davis as he is still a 2 down player. And who knows how he will manage his weight in the NFL, sure he lost weight for the combine but once he gets drafted and to Buffalo I’m sure he will be hitting the wings pretty hard. Last thing I want to see is another Dareus situation, and Davis isn’t nearly as talented as Dareus was. 

[HappyDays]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Keep an eye on who they draft rounds 3 through 5 because I think that will give us a clue who the guys are on defense that they are looking at life beyond. 

 

Look at their pre-draft meetings. It's a lot of LBs and safeties.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

Look at their pre-draft meetings. It's a lot of LBs and safeties.

 

Yea if that follows through it tells you they are planning for life after Poyer and potentially Edmunds or Milano. 

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, somnus00 said:

I think the problem is where we're picking. I don't see the Bills being able to get Booth or McDuffie at 25. Likely, they'll need to go with guys who have potential and need to get coached up. Luckily for us, the Bills have an excellent coaching staff.

 

CB is our biggest need. But I'd be satisfied if we came away with any 2 of:

Alontae Taylor

Tariq Woolen

Coby Bryant

Josh Williams

 

All guys with crazy potential in my opinion.

I'm still holding out that 3 qbs get drafted before 25, causing either McDuffie or Booth to fall.

[whorlnut]

37 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Look at their pre-draft meetings. It's a lot of LBs and safeties.

A ton of WR, TE, and RB too. 

4 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I'm still holding out that 3 qbs get drafted before 25, causing either McDuffie or Booth to fall.

I feel the same way about WRs. The passing game is our identity. Keep stockpiling weapons for Allen. Dane and Tre can hold down the starting CB spots. Sign a vet until Tre is 100%. 

[Mattymafia]

I think we are all overlooking the possibility that the Bills like Dane Jackson. He was right around Levi's level, I think they're gonna surprise us and not take a corner in the first two rounds.

[BillsShredder83]

12 hours ago, Georgie said:

Not even if it is a 1st round pick?

Why would you start a rookie + Siran?

If anything rookie would start in the #2 slot until Tre is ready

[BillsShredder83]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is not a given that Taron is a Bill beyond 2022. 

He just signed a new deal. Its shorter but I doubt he goes anywhere. If we draft a CB high, he'll be on the outside not a slot guy, so hard to picture him being cut or traded before '23 season

[Big Blitz]

47 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I'm still holding out that 3 qbs get drafted before 25, causing either McDuffie or Booth to fall.

 

 

CBS mock today had McDuffie falling to us.

 

Booth went before he did.  And I'm beginning to think that's probably how they go:

 

Stingley 

Sauce

Booth 

McDuffie

Elam

 

I'd be good with any of them at 25.  

[RyanC883]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Jalen Ramsey gives up 57%. Tre White 53%. Anything below 60% is pretty darn good. Obviously you have to factor increase in competition in the NFL etc.. but if he stayed at that number he would be a very good NFL corner. 

thanks.  where do u get all this info?

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

thanks.  where do u get all this info?

 

Pro football reference has completion % given up for defensive players. 

[RyanC883]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Pro football reference has completion % given up for defensive players. 

 Thanks!!.  Did you used to be a scout or something ?   You have a ridiculous knowledge about this stuff!! 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, RyanC883 said:

 Thanks!!.  Did you used to be a scout or something ?   You have a ridiculous knowledge about this stuff!! 

 

I am just a geek. Ha. 

[RyanC883]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

I am just a geek. Ha. 

Haha. You are good at it. So Pro Football reference.  Anywhere else I should look for good geek stuff??  Any good place to read on draft prospects besides PFF?

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

Haha. You are good at it. So Pro Football reference.  Anywhere else I should look for good geek stuff??  Any good place to read on draft prospects besides PFF?

 

On draft stuff The Draft Network and Draftek are the places I look during the season because they update regularly. I subscribe to Matt Miller's stuff and we occasionally DM. But really I try as far as I can to do my own research on draft stuff. The risk otherwise is you end up with everyone else's opinions and not your own.

[Alphadawg7]

On 4/14/2022 at 12:37 AM, GunnerBill said:

Bradberry actually played quite well even as a rookie. Worley was never very good and was bouncing around somewhere as a practice squad player last I heard. If memory serves I think the Panthers had some turnover at safety as well that year. So they were basically making over the entire secondary. 

 

I think the slight quandry for the Bills this time around is that there is not an excess of 2nd round type corners. It is a bit of a dead spot in the corner class. There are the 7 guys I think can start and perform well early, all of whom I guess will be gone by #57. And then there is a good stack if developmental guys that I think belong in rounds 3 and 4. So it complicates the assessment a bit. I am getting to a place where I expect the Bills to go corner at #25 and then come back for a receiver in the 2nd. Not saying that is what I'd do. But that is where I am landing on predicting what they will do.

 

I do think Woolen could be there for the Bills in the 2nd, and he honestly seems like a Beane and McD type of player, raw with incredible gifts and upside.  So if he is there in the 2nd, I think he could be the pick there.

 

CB in the first still seems the more probable scenario, but I am confident Beane won't reach for one either.  And if there isn't one atop their draft board at 25 and decide to go another direction and pass on a CB there, then it would not surprise me to see them then trade up from 57 to go get a CB they covet.  

 

One thing I know about Beane is he is pretty true to his board, and he isn't afraid to move up to get a guy he is targeting.  And I think a less costly trade up in the 2nd is more likely then a big move in the first that could cost premium picks.  

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I do think Woolen could be there for the Bills in the 2nd, and he honestly seems like a Beane and McD type of player, raw with incredible gifts and upside.  So if he is there in the 2nd, I think he could be the pick there.

 

CB in the first still seems the more probable scenario, but I am confident Beane won't reach for one either.  And if there isn't one atop their draft board at 25 and decide to go another direction and pass on a CB there, then it would not surprise me to see them then trade up from 57 to go get a CB they covet.  

 

One thing I know about Beane is he is pretty true to his board, and he isn't afraid to move up to get a guy he is targeting.  And I think a less costly trade up in the 2nd is more likely then a big move in the first that could cost premium picks.  

 

I think Woolen is still a reach in the 2nd. His tape is very, very inconsistent. Yes the measurables are there, but for me he is a 3rd rouns grade. He could be a superstar. He could also be out of the league in 3 years. It is that level of boom or bust. 

 

My take on him is Beane and co will love him. McDermott and Frazier will be more circumspect. They value smart and disciplined corners. I wouldn't apply either adjective to Woolen. 

Edited April 15, 2022 by GunnerBill

[Alphadawg7]

37 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Woolen is still a reach in the 2nd. His tape is very, very inconsistent. Yes the measurables are there, but for me he is a 3rd rouns grade. He could be a superstar. He could also be out of the league in 3 years. It is that level of boom or bust. 

 

My take on him is Beane and co will love him. McDermott and Frazier will be more circumspect. They value smart and disciplined corners. I wouldn't apply either adjective to Woolen. 

 

I personally think there is very little possibility of Woolen lasting until the third though, and even less chance he last until our pick in the 3rd.  IMHO hes going to go in the 2nd and he seems very much the kind of player Beane and McD love and would be confident in coaching up.  

 

Whether or not McD and Beane feel he can be a great player or not is the question.  If they see a future superstar in him, then I think not only would be take him in the 2nd, they might move up some to get him.  But who knows, they may also watch his tape and come away less enamored, in which case they wouldn't see him as a second round worthy pick either.  

 

But in terms of where he gets drafted, I am not sure he even lasts until our pick.

[HappyDays]

14 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

IMHO hes going to go in the 2nd and he seems very much the kind of player Beane and McD love and would be confident in coaching up.  

 

Not with CBs. They don't care about elite athleticism. They want length and instincts and technique. Woolen doesn't have great instincts and currently well below average technique. I'll be shocked if we draft him in the first 3 rounds.

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I personally think there is very little possibility of Woolen lasting until the third though, and even less chance he last until our pick in the 3rd.  IMHO hes going to go in the 2nd and he seems very much the kind of player Beane and McD love and would be confident in coaching up.  

 

Whether or not McD and Beane feel he can be a great player or not is the question.  If they see a future superstar in him, then I think not only would be take him in the 2nd, they might move up some to get him.  But who knows, they may also watch his tape and come away less enamored, in which case they wouldn't see him as a second round worthy pick either.  

 

But in terms of where he gets drafted, I am not sure he even lasts until our pick.

 

I think his ceiling is somewhere around the Bills 2nd pick. He is a guy I was high on way before the combine when he was being seen as a late day 3 guy. But I think the pendulum has swung too far the other way. I think he is a classic case of the RAS score overtaking the tape. I wouldn't be stunned if he went 2nd round. But I wouldn't take him there. He is too low floor. He literally could be out of the league before the end of his rookie deal if he doesn't improve with pro coaching. I get the swing for the fences argument. And the Bills do need to be willing to take some. Personally Woolen is too big a risk for me.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Not with CBs. They don't care about elite athleticism. They want length and instincts and technique. Woolen doesn't have great instincts and currently well below average technique. I'll be shocked if we draft him in the first 3 rounds.

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think his ceiling is somewhere around the Bills 2nd pick. He is a guy I was high on way before the combine when he was being seen as a late day 3 guy. But I think the pendulum has swung too far the other way. I think he is a classic case of the RAS score overtaking the tape. I wouldn't be stunned if he went 2nd round. But I wouldn't take him there. He is too low floor. He literally could be out of the league before the end of his rookie deal if he doesn't improve with pro coaching. I get the swing for the fences argument. And the Bills do need to be willing to take some. Personally Woolen is too big a risk for me.

All fair points, I get where you are both coming from.  @HappyDaysthat is a really good point I admittedly had not really considered actually, where they don’t care as much about the athletic ability specifically at the CB spot compared to that raw athleticism elsewhere.   
 

Im starting to come around to the way you’re both seeing it, you’ve made compelling points worth considering here.  And Gunner you surely have watched more of him than I have, my thought process was more on the line of how Beane has previously been attracted to athletic and potentially versatile players, even when small school or unpolished in the past.
 

But now that it was pointed out they haven’t really applied that thus far to the CB they have added over the years, which I agree with and just had not really thought about it that way previously, I can see why maybe he might not be on their radar as much as I might have thought, at least early.  
 

Ok, you’ve both changed my mind and sold me, solid work and comments gents.  

[Motor26]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Not with CBs. They don't care about elite athleticism. They want length and instincts and technique. Woolen doesn't have great instincts and currently well below average technique. I'll be shocked if we draft him in the first 3 rounds.

Definitely with the zone scheme they play they don’t need an elite guy who can lock down the other teams number 1. I like Kyler Gordon a lot, think he is definitely more athletic than his 40 time at the combine (especially with his pro day jump numbers). I think he would be a perfect fit in the Bills zone scheme, would probably require a trade up in the 2nd round. Woolen has way too much bust potential for my liking despite his insane athleticism. 

[HappyDays]

4 minutes ago, Motor26 said:

Definitely with the zone scheme they play they don’t need an elite guy who can lock down the other teams number 1. I like Kyler Gordon a lot, think he is definitely more athletic than his 40 time at the combine (especially with his pro day jump numbers). I think he would be a perfect fit in the Bills zone scheme, would probably require a trade up in the 2nd round. Woolen has way too much bust potential for my liking despite his insane athleticism. 

 

Just going off the scouting reports I've read on Gordon, he also appears to be more about athletic traits than instincts and technique. Not that the discrepancy is anywhere near where it is with a prospect like Woolen, but I'm still not sure McDermott would see him as a 1st round talent. This is from Lance Zierlein's scouting report on him:

 

Quote

Cornerback who comes with an elite, high-performance engine but a GPS still in the process of loading. Gordon's dynamic athletic qualities will show up in testing, but more importantly, they are all over his tape. His blend of play strength and explosive burst affects the passing game from press, off-man and zone coverages. He plays with an alpha demeanor and hitting is definitely part of his overall package. Gordon lacks polish and needs to play with better route recognition and anticipation, but if those elements click, his ball production could be near the top of the league as one of the top playmakers in the game.

 

[Aurelius]

Unless you get access to a Sauce or Stingley, I don’t see the Bills using their top pick for a CB.  It’s been discussed here already but I think they probably nab a stud WR or even a big DT, safety or top LB with that pick.  The stats about how few first round CB’s are starting for teams down the line doesn’t compel to take a CB in the first round.  Gotta pick a position that presents a “must have” player, whatever that position might be.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Aurelius said:

Unless you get access to a Sauce or Stingley, I don’t see the Bills using their top pick for a CB.  It’s been discussed here already but I think they probably nab a stud WR or even a big DT, safety or top LB with that pick.  The stats about how few first round CB’s are starting for teams down the line doesn’t compel to take a CB in the first round.  Gotta pick a position that presents a “must have” player, whatever that position might be.

 

 

 

Or Booth. I think he is CB1 personally.