GunnerBill Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 hours ago, JGMcD2 said: I’ve been having this debate with a friend of mine who is a Browns fan and I think he’s finally starting to come around on this. Baker is a fine quarterback, but he’s not worth the $35M he thinks he deserves. It’s not really not even close. His production is worth around $25M. Spotrac has him at $30M but I think that’s too high. He’s heavily protected by that run game. Baker is a player in a similar vein to Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill and Jimmy Garoppolo (Mac Jones and Tua Tagovailoa are entering this discussion too). They’re definitely above average, but they need help around them to support them. They’re not able to carry a team for stretches of a season, but they’re not bad enough where you feel like you should replace them. I think Cleveland is better off paying Nick Mullens around $10M a year for 3 years to run the same offense. The offense line is already top 5 in football, the defense has talent all over the place, spend the $25M you’d save from not signing Baker an use it to stack the offense with weapons. Mullens will give you 90% of the production Baker gives you for 30% of the cost. It’s actually crazy how similar their per game numbers are to this point. Based on his play this season absolutely you could get similar production out of Nick Mullens. I am a little reluctant to draw too many definitive conclusions on Baker from this season though. I genuinely think he has toughed it out playing hurt when the wise call to protect his value might have been to sit. The question is can you get 2020 Baker Mayfield consistently because if you can in the type of offense Stefanski runs then that is not so easily replaceable and I think he is worth $30m based on the current market. I think that is his ceiling but if he could be that guy consistently he is in that Kirk Cousins category and I'd never advocate moving off Cousins until a guy beats him out. That is why my strategy would be exactly what Washington did with Cousins which is put the decision off. Let him play on the option next year, if you still don't know then franchise tag him for a year. If you still don't know franchise tag him again. That means you have 3 more years to either work it out or to find a replacement somehow (that list bit was what Washington did wrong, they never tried to bring in an alternative and so were stuck when Cousins walked). 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paup 1995MVP Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 7 hours ago, RobbRiddick said: Said this before, I kind of like Baker despite his shortcomings and I think he has the drive and skill to come back from this season with a good 2022, though he'll never put up Allen type numbers. I wouldn't pay him yet and give him another year to see how he does. Jackson isn't worth the hype around him but his winning % is undeniable. I admire Jackson because he had a lot going against him coming into the league, I get more annoyed with the way the media slobbers all over him every time he makes a "video game" play. I've realized that Allen and Jackson can be distinguished by a simple rule: if Allen plays 3 sublime quarters of football and then makes a bad INT or fumble he'll get the "oh there's the real Josh Allen" treatment. With Jackson it's the other way around (same for Kyler) in that he can play like ***** for most of the game but makes one incredible scramble and that's all certain people will talk about The Browns and the Ravens are not winning Super Bowls with Mayfield or Jackson. Neither of them is a good passer. And Mayfield's pocket awareness is terrible. When does he ever make someone miss. Lamar is a lot of hype (because today's media loves a black QB.) He can be exciting running around. And Andrews is a great target. But he has been figured out. Lamar is a modern Mike Vick. He had some good years and was an amazing runner. But the Falcons were never dominant with him. (And I would say that Vick was a better passer then Lamar) To win Super Bowls you still need a gunslinger who can make all the throws with consistency. And it certainly helps to have a dam good O line. Josh Allen was the cream of the 2018 QB draft class. And we are dam sure lucky to have him. Go Bills!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FilthyBeast Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 44 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said: Wait a minute? You’re doing two different things here. Burrow, Mahomes and Herbert you’re projecting out… but the rest you’re looking historically? Make it make sense. It does make sense, if you are looking long term I'm not taking Brady or Rogers over Allen right now because they both may be playing in their last seasons. If you are looking at pure potential I still think there are several guys that truly may end up HOF players compared to Allen. But if you want to lump everyone together than yes I'm not taking Allen over at least 5-7 other NFL QB's right now and why would anyone else based on comparitive body of work and overall ceiling? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Even as much as a year after Josh Allen's draft, with all those heavily rated QBs going early in the first round, there was (deserved) argument over who was going to be good, bad, or the best of the lot. It's taken time (as always) but it's now pretty clear that Josh Allen was THE GUY you wanted out of that draft class, and that Cleveland, with the first overall pick, should have taken him. It's also pretty clear that ALL the others vary from horrible bust to not very good to disappointing. The best of the rest is probably Baker Mayfield and he's not really what Cleveland was hoping for. It also shows yet again how poor at player evaluation NFL teams are, despite the effort, resources, and manpower put into the endeavor. The irony is that the Bills are the ones who "got it right" and yet they arguably just got lucky. Perhaps they should be rewarded for being the ones willing to take a chance, but that's basically what they did. They took the chance on the long shot, and hit the bullseye. But that's different than somehow calculating that he was the one who would be good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seventeen Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 9 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said: It does make sense, if you are looking long term I'm not taking Brady or Rogers over Allen right now because they both may be playing in their last seasons. If you are looking at pure potential I still think there are several guys that truly may end up HOF players compared to Allen. But if you want to lump everyone together than yes I'm not taking Allen over at least 5-7 other NFL QB's right now and why would anyone else based on comparitive body of work and overall ceiling? Who determines the ceiling ? You ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Lamar Jackson has 2-3 seasons left playing this style of football. Running QBs don't last. Structure that new contract very carefully. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FilthyBeast Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, QCity said: Lamar Jackson has 2-3 seasons left playing this style of football. Running QBs don't last. Structure that new contract very carefully. So think about what Allen does on a regular basis, especially on Sunday against the Falcons and also consider why his recent extension wasn't very smart..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JGMcD2 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 23 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said: It does make sense, if you are looking long term I'm not taking Brady or Rogers over Allen right now because they both may be playing in their last seasons. If you are looking at pure potential I still think there are several guys that truly may end up HOF players compared to Allen. But if you want to lump everyone together than yes I'm not taking Allen over at least 5-7 other NFL QB's right now and why would anyone else based on comparitive body of work and overall ceiling? Josh’s ceiling is lower than Mahomes, Burrow and Herbert despite never touching the level of competition they did in college? Murray, Prescott, Tannehill and Jackson have performed better than Josh the past two years? I’m not following your logic. Mahomes, Herbert, Burrow and Allen are debatable long term. I’m not disputing that. I think Kyler Murray is right there too… but I’m not sure what your argument is? Herbert, Burrow and Murray aren’t getting their contracts right now and weren’t in line for it. Josh was… you’re overselling his “regression” his regression still has him playing like a top 3 QB this year. What are we using to measure that? When they get paid… Josh will no longer be paid like the #1 QB in football… that’s how it works. They’ll surpass him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan1959 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, JGMcD2 said: Josh’s ceiling is lower than Mahomes, Burrow and Herbert despite never touching the level of competition they did in college? Murray, Prescott, Tannehill and Jackson have performed better than Josh the past two years? I’m not following your logic. Mahomes, Herbert, Burrow and Allen are debatable long term. I’m not disputing that. I think Kyler Murray is right there too… but I’m not sure what your argument is? Herbert, Burrow and Murray aren’t getting their contracts right now and weren’t in line for it. Josh was… you’re overselling his “regression” his regression still has him playing like a top 3 QB this year. What are we using to measure that? When they get paid… Josh will no longer be paid like the #1 QB in football… that’s how it works. They’ll surpass him. It goes something like this... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TBBills Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 39 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said: It does make sense, if you are looking long term I'm not taking Brady or Rogers over Allen right now because they both may be playing in their last seasons. If you are looking at pure potential I still think there are several guys that truly may end up HOF players compared to Allen. But if you want to lump everyone together than yes I'm not taking Allen over at least 5-7 other NFL QB's right now and why would anyone else based on comparitive body of work and overall ceiling? I found a picture of your argument. 1 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan1959 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, TBBills said: I found a picture of your argument. It should probably have a little mold on it as well... 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quinnearlysghost88 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 hours ago, FilthyBeast said: Because I don't engage in mindless idol worship over our starting QB and actually pay attention to what's happening around the rest of the league? What's hilarious is some of you obviously didn't just watch the same game I did where Allen had 3 INT's against the worst passing defense in the league and Nathan Peterman type QB rating and he was essentially shut down in the 2nd half in terms of the playcalling by Daboll/McD. Against even a mediorce team like the Steelers that's a loss, but that's right they already beat us too with Allen not playing well in that game either. Man some of you need to step back and simply be objective. Again Allen is fine, but he's not the guy some of you want to try so hard to believe he is....not yet anyway. He really is the guy we think he is. On a very bad day for him (though two tipped picks aren’t exactly his fault) he still managed to run for 82 yards and two scores to make an impact on the games outcome. We don’t think he’s perfect, but he’s so versatile, teams have to try to shut down multiple facets of his game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 (edited) 8 hours ago, GunnerBill said: Personally? If I am the Ravens I am paying Lamar Jackson. He is not a great passer, and likely never will be a great passer, but he is just such a dynamic playmaker and they win games when he is on the field that is undeniable. Baker is tougher. I think I'd let it play out maybe even franchise tag him a year after his rookie deal. He has been battling through a shoulder injury all season this season and I don't want to make a rash decision based on that, but he was a borderline pay or let go decision anyway for me. The issue for Cleveland might be I don't see them bottoming out any time soon to be in position to draft another guy in the top 10. They might be in purgatory somewhat. Cleveland is in the same position the Vikings were 3 years ago. Too good to be terrible. Not good enough to be a true contender. With a QB who will be hard to replace. For that reason, I think you pay Baker. Edited January 4, 2022 by FireChans Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan1959 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, FireChans said: Cleveland is in the same position the Vikings were 3 years ago. Too good to be terrible. Not good enough to be a true contender. With a QB who will be hard to replace. For that reason, I think you pay Baker. Cleveland is in the same position the Vikings were 3 years ago. Too good to be terrible. Not good enough to be a true contender. With a QB who will be hard to replace. For that reason, I think you pay Baker. Cleveland is in the same position the Vikings were 3 years ago. Too good to be terrible. Not good enough to be a true contender. With a QB who will be hard to replace. For that reason, I think you pay Baker. Cleveland is in the same position the Vikings were 3 years ago. Too good to be terrible. Not good enough to be a true contender. With a QB who will be hard to replace. For that reason, I think you pay Baker. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rochesterfan Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 hours ago, FilthyBeast said: Both the Ravens and Browns were prudent and not rushing to extend Jackson/Mayfield respectively. In the Browns case it's starting to look like they will need to begin the elusive search for a franchise QB again. The ravens obviously probably resign Jackson long term once both sides agree to what makes sense and he was having a borderline MVP year before getting hurt IMO. I still think the Bills made a mistake in resigning Allen so quickly because they could have had him much cheaper based on this year's regression and current production. Of course you think they made a mistake. It hurts the Dolphins that we signed him long term. Troll 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thriftygamer83 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Both teams now have injury liabilities in all facets, folds, and haven't found traction since last year. It's hard to figure where they'll go from here. Buffalo is moving forward with a Quarterback whose as durable as Jackey French Kemp and is weathering the storm of snubs and Cheatriots fans. We shut them up once imagine if they get chocked in the playoffs before they see us and Mac Jones then transforms into the hard partying Dennis Shaw that Billy Beallicheat cannot rein in. As it is the Ravens and Browns cannot even do social distancing it's a coaching failure along with the Racens. Our cancer surviving Coach is a bad arse! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rochesterfan Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 hours ago, Doc said: You’re kidding, right? His 18 total touchdowns and 16 total turnovers was carrying the team? LOL! Well you know compared to his guy - Tua - those number look pretty good. 😂 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 12 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said: Well you know compared to his guy - Tua - those number look pretty good. 😂 What does Tua have to do with anything? He sucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Nextmanup said: Even as much as a year after Josh Allen's draft, with all those heavily rated QBs going early in the first round, there was (deserved) argument over who was going to be good, bad, or the best of the lot. It's taken time (as always) but it's now pretty clear that Josh Allen was THE GUY you wanted out of that draft class, and that Cleveland, with the first overall pick, should have taken him. It's also pretty clear that ALL the others vary from horrible bust to not very good to disappointing. The best of the rest is probably Baker Mayfield and he's not really what Cleveland was hoping for. It also shows yet again how poor at player evaluation NFL teams are, despite the effort, resources, and manpower put into the endeavor. The irony is that the Bills are the ones who "got it right" and yet they arguably just got lucky. Perhaps they should be rewarded for being the ones willing to take a chance, but that's basically what they did. They took the chance on the long shot, and hit the bullseye. But that's different than somehow calculating that he was the one who would be good. i think saying they just got lucky is a bit off base. this team took the steps to developing josh and putting the tools around him to succeed. on top of that, josh is an incredibly hard worker who has put the time in. is luck involved? sure, but it's one element of many that has made allen successful. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnNord Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 hour ago, FilthyBeast said: So think about what Allen does on a regular basis, especially on Sunday against the Falcons and also consider why his recent extension wasn't very smart..... You have to be the most skeptical and negative Bills fan in this forum….and that’s saying a lot. Every one of your comments is trashing the team 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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