716er Posted December 24, 2021 Share Posted December 24, 2021 Have they thrown a screen to Diggs yet this season? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro Nimbus Posted December 24, 2021 Share Posted December 24, 2021 1 hour ago, 716er said: Have they thrown a screen to Diggs yet this season? yes, and they usually get blown up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDingus Posted December 24, 2021 Share Posted December 24, 2021 Well, it's definitely a number of factors, most of which people have mentioned. So I'm just going to nerd out & break down the stats.😂 Skip to the bottom for whatever guess I figure out. Alright, time to take a look... Targets: 2020 - 10.38 per game 2021 - 9.14 per game Receptions: 2020 - 7.94 per game 2021 - 5.86 per game So on average, he's getting 12% less targets, and is catching only 64% of those passes, whereas last year he caught 76% of those targets. On the plus side, his average ypc is nearly identical (slightly better) at 12.3 ypc, & he already matched his TD total at 8, still with 3 games to go. ********************************** Now lets see how his teammates stood last year vs this year: 1) Cole Beasley (2020): Targets - 107 total / 7.13 per game / 5.46 receptions per game / 76% catch ratio / 11.8 yard avg. / 4 TD's Cole Beasley (2021): Targets - 101 total / 7.21 per game / 5.43 receptions per game / 75% catch ratio / 8.4 yard avg. / 1 TD (Beasley only played 15 games in 2020) 2) Gabe Davis (2020): Targets - 62 total / 3.87 per game / 2.19 receptions per game / 56% catch ratio / 17.1 yard avg. / 7 TD's Gabe Davis (2021): Targets - 46 total / 3.29 per game / 2.07 receptions per game / 63% catch ratio / 16.2 yard avg. / 6 TD's (Davis only played 13 games in 2021) 3) Dawson Knox (2020): Targets - 44 total / 4.00 per game / 2.18 receptions per game / 54% catch ratio / 12.0 yard avg. / 3 TD's Dawson Knox (2021): Targets - 61 total / 5.08 per game / 3.67 receptions per game / 72% catch ratio / 12.0 yard avg. / 8 TD's (Knox only played 11 games in 2020 & 12 games in 2021) 4a) John Brown (2020): Targets - 52 total / 5.78 per game / 3.67 receptions per game / 63% catch ratio / 13.9 yard avg. / 4 TD's 4b) Em. Sanders (2021): Targets - 67 total / 5.58 per game / 3.25 receptions per game / 58% catch ratio / 15.1 yard avg. / 4 TD's (Brown only played 9 games in 2020 / Sanders played in 13, but only counting 12, as injury in 2nd qtr vs Bucs left him with 1 target/1 rec) Results on this Front: Inconclusive - Aside from Dawson Knox receiving 23% more targets per game in 2021 (and catching a massively improved 18% more of those), most everyone else is averaging similar targets. Beasley's average targets are slightly up, Davis's are slightly down, and surprisingly Emmanuel Sanders is averaging less targets than John Brown was (so much for the theory he's taking away from Gabe's targets). ********************************** So, perhaps it has more to do with less passing overall? Since Allen started every game in 2020 & 2021, I'll base his numbers through 14 games for both: Josh Allen (2020) - Total Passing Attempts - 511 / 36.50 att. per game / 25.07 comp. per game / 68.7% completion / 4,000 yards / 30 Passing TD's / 9 INT's Josh Allen (2021) - Total Passing Attempts - 528 / 37.71 att. per game / 24.57 comp. per game / 65.2% completion / 3,734 yards / 31 Passing TD's / 12 INT's Still not a huge difference, though it does show he's throwing a bit more, completing a bit less, and doing it for less yards. He has 1 more TD, but 3 more INT's as well. But those results above, what we've seen for ourselves, & in combination with the following things is where I think a more clear picture starts to emerge... 1) Through all 16 games last season, Josh took 26 sacks. 2) Through all 16 games last season, he had his lowest rushing yards (421) & yards per carry (4.1) despite still having his usual 8 rushing TD's. 3) Through the 14 games this season, he already has 26 sacks, with 3 games to go. 4) Through the 14 games this season, his rushing yards have shot up to 555 yards (76 short of his high as a rookie), avg. 6.2 ypc & with 4 TD's to show for it. Some of this is by design, but much of it appears to be out of necessity. As Allen became a better passer, his rushing yards went down each year. His TD's stayed the same, because that's when he took advantage in the redzone. 26 sacks in 14 games compared to 26 all last year may not seem awful, but I looked into it a bit more. This year Josh Allen is one of the most pressured QB's overall in the league. 52 knock downs (6th overall), 74 hurries (1st overall), 146 times blitzed (4th overall)... If he weren't so mobile, those numbers would be even worse! No wonder his rushing numbers have gone up so much too. *********************************SORRY IN ADVANCE FOR THIS NOVEL - I'M MAKING THIS A BAD HABIT 😅********************************* Final Guess: Diggs' targets have slightly dropped, as have a couple others, as Allen has been throwing a bit more often but hasn't been as accurate (mainly due to inconsistent line play & extreme pressure). Because of that, he's had to do a lot more improvising & rushing, trying to make something of broken plays or simply mitigate a bad situation. Compared to 2020, his attempts were of higher value on average, as he had more time to process & make plays as opposed to salvaging what he can in a hurry this year. In addition, Knox has been the biggest beneficiary of increased targets, & Allen's need to improvise, reducing Diggs' overall opportunities even further. Similarly, the RB's have had more receptions through 14 games as well, likely another result of needing a quick outlet under pressure or when scrambling. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsfan1972 Posted December 24, 2021 Author Share Posted December 24, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, BigDingus said: Well, it's definitely a number of factors, most of which people have mentioned. So I'm just going to nerd out & break down the stats.😂 Skip to the bottom for whatever guess I figure out. Alright, time to take a look... Targets: 2020 - 10.38 per game 2021 - 9.14 per game Receptions: 2020 - 7.94 per game 2021 - 5.86 per game So on average, he's getting 12% less targets, and is catching only 64% of those passes, whereas last year he caught 76% of those targets. On the plus side, his average ypc is nearly identical (slightly better) at 12.3 ypc, & he already matched his TD total at 8, still with 3 games to go. ********************************** Now lets see how his teammates stood last year vs this year: 1) Cole Beasley (2020): Targets - 107 total / 7.13 per game / 5.46 receptions per game / 76% catch ratio / 11.8 yard avg. / 4 TD's Cole Beasley (2021): Targets - 101 total / 7.21 per game / 5.43 receptions per game / 75% catch ratio / 8.4 yard avg. / 1 TD (Beasley only played 15 games in 2020) 2) Gabe Davis (2020): Targets - 62 total / 3.87 per game / 2.19 receptions per game / 56% catch ratio / 17.1 yard avg. / 7 TD's Gabe Davis (2021): Targets - 46 total / 3.29 per game / 2.07 receptions per game / 63% catch ratio / 16.2 yard avg. / 6 TD's (Davis only played 13 games in 2021) 3) Dawson Knox (2020): Targets - 44 total / 4.00 per game / 2.18 receptions per game / 54% catch ratio / 12.0 yard avg. / 3 TD's Dawson Knox (2021): Targets - 61 total / 5.08 per game / 3.67 receptions per game / 72% catch ratio / 12.0 yard avg. / 8 TD's (Knox only played 11 games in 2020 & 12 games in 2021) 4a) John Brown (2020): Targets - 52 total / 5.78 per game / 3.67 receptions per game / 63% catch ratio / 13.9 yard avg. / 4 TD's 4b) Em. Sanders (2021): Targets - 67 total / 5.58 per game / 3.25 receptions per game / 58% catch ratio / 15.1 yard avg. / 4 TD's (Brown only played 9 games in 2020 / Sanders played in 13, but only counting 12, as injury in 2nd qtr vs Bucs left him with 1 target/1 rec) Results on this Front: Inconclusive - Aside from Dawson Knox receiving 23% more targets per game in 2021 (and catching a massively improved 18% more of those), most everyone else is averaging similar targets. Beasley's average targets are slightly up, Davis's are slightly down, and surprisingly Emmanuel Sanders is averaging less targets than John Brown was (so much for the theory he's taking away from Gabe's targets). ********************************** So, perhaps it has more to do with less passing overall? Since Allen started every game in 2020 & 2021, I'll base his numbers through 14 games for both: Josh Allen (2020) - Total Passing Attempts - 511 / 36.50 att. per game / 25.07 comp. per game / 68.7% completion / 4,000 yards / 30 Passing TD's / 9 INT's Josh Allen (2021) - Total Passing Attempts - 528 / 37.71 att. per game / 24.57 comp. per game / 65.2% completion / 3,734 yards / 31 Passing TD's / 12 INT's Still not a huge difference, though it does show he's throwing a bit more, completing a bit less, and doing it for less yards. He has 1 more TD, but 3 more INT's as well. But those results above, what we've seen for ourselves, & in combination with the following things is where I think a more clear picture starts to emerge... 1) Through all 16 games last season, Josh took 26 sacks. 2) Through all 16 games last season, he had his lowest rushing yards (421) & yards per carry (4.1) despite still having his usual 8 rushing TD's. 3) Through the 14 games this season, he already has 26 sacks, with 3 games to go. 4) Through the 14 games this season, his rushing yards have shot up to 555 yards (76 short of his high as a rookie), avg. 6.2 ypc & with 4 TD's to show for it. Some of this is by design, but much of it appears to be out of necessity. As Allen became a better passer, his rushing yards went down each year. His TD's stayed the same, because that's when he took advantage in the redzone. 26 sacks in 14 games compared to 26 all last year may not seem awful, but I looked into it a bit more. This year Josh Allen is one of the most pressured QB's overall in the league. 52 knock downs (6th overall), 74 hurries (1st overall), 146 times blitzed (4th overall)... If he weren't so mobile, those numbers would be even worse! No wonder his rushing numbers have gone up so much too. *********************************SORRY IN ADVANCE FOR THIS NOVEL - I'M MAKING THIS A BAD HABIT 😅********************************* Final Guess: Diggs' targets have slightly dropped, as have a couple others, as Allen has been throwing a bit more often but hasn't been as accurate (mainly due to inconsistent line play & extreme pressure). Because of that, he's had to do a lot more improvising & rushing, trying to make something of broken plays or simply mitigate a bad situation. Compared to 2020, his attempts were of higher value on average, as he had more time to process & make plays as opposed to salvaging what he can in a hurry this year. In addition, Knox has been the biggest beneficiary of increased targets, & Allen's need to improvise, reducing Diggs' overall opportunities even further. Similarly, the RB's have had more receptions through 14 games as well, likely another result of needing a quick outlet under pressure or when scrambling. Appreciate you nerding out however I think you're going into too much detail. You only need to compare him to his peers and his numbers are way down as are his yards and average catches per game. I think it is coaching and maybe a little bit of Allen but I want to see it improve. He has two 100-yard games both were blow outs where we really did not need them. His biggest number games of catches were not very productive either as in average yards per reception. We need him to be big in big games. Sorry I think the results are pretty conclusive. I will happily blame Daboll for all of it. Edited December 24, 2021 by Billsfan1972 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djp14150 Posted December 24, 2021 Share Posted December 24, 2021 Is Diggsthe only receiver left? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 8:32 PM, TheProcess said: Diggs is still having a good year, but I’ve felt like he’s been underutilized all year. For whatever reason, Josh isn’t looking to him as much this year. I also think the creativity on offense hasn’t been there as much this year either. I wish they’d use Diggs more like Cooper Kupp. WE have played some fantastic defenses this year in. Patriots, Colts, Steelers, Titans, Bucs, Panthers. Teams that have outstanding coverage. Teams that are sending DBs to the Pro Bowl. With a depleted OL against these supremely good defense, our numbers were going to be down, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsfan1972 Posted December 25, 2021 Author Share Posted December 25, 2021 (edited) 11 hours ago, ganesh said: WE have played some fantastic defenses this year in. Patriots, Colts, Steelers, Titans, Bucs, Panthers. Teams that have outstanding coverage. Teams that are sending DBs to the Pro Bowl. With a depleted OL against these supremely good defense, our numbers were going to be down, Again excuses as he played good defenses last year, and you telling me his peers only playing bad defenses? His production is down and want to see it improve. Two 100-yard games in the first 14 nothing close to where it was last year. Either he is elite or he isn't. I think he is! Edited December 25, 2021 by Billsfan1972 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 11 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullBuchanan Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 37 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: LOVE it. There isn't a WR that I'd rather have if it meant losing him. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gambit Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 40 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: I hope Diggs and Allen end up being one of, if not the greatest duo in NFL history when it's all said and done. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CircleTheWagons99 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, YoloinOhio said: This man deserves a super bowl. Edited February 11, 2022 by CircleTheWagons99 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 59 minutes ago, CircleTheWagons99 said: This man deserves a super bowel. That’s a little too personal and TMI don’tcha think? 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bad Things Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Love that guy. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goober Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: That’s a little too personal and TMI don’tcha think? Did OP edit that away? Great turn of phrase - I picture Diggs singing that alongside a flight attendant in a Pepto Bismol commercial during the game Sunday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: That’s a little too personal and TMI don’tcha think? Im in a bar in Maui and just almost spit my mai tai out when I read your reply cuz he had already edited it before i saw his error haha…👏 nice work 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BruceVilanch Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said: Im in a bar in Maui and just almost spit my mai tai out when I read your reply cuz he had already edited it before i saw his error haha…👏 nice work Check out Vibe Bar in Kihei, it's a good spot, Kehei in general is pretty sweet. Edited February 11, 2022 by BruceVilanch *Kihei 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 2 hours ago, BruceVilanch said: Check out Vibe Bar in Kihei, it's a good spot, Kehei in general is pretty sweet. Thanks! Just got here and will do! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.