The Buffalo Bills, Built for the Future of Football

[hondo in seattle]

When the Bills took OJ with the first pick of the 1969 draft, it was the fifth time that decade that a running back was the overall top pick.  One other top pick was an OT who was going to blow holes open for RBs.  And two were defenders who were highly talented at making RBs miserable.  Only one QB – Terry Baker - was taken first in the NFL draft in the 60s.  The 1960s still revolved around the RB.  

 

In contrast, in the 2010s, QBs were the top pick 8 of 10 years.   A running back hasn’t been the first player chosen in the draft since Ki-Jana Carter in 1995.

Thanks to changes in rules and the evolution of schemes, the NFL is more and more a passing league.  And that familiar trend is likely to continue for years to come.  Passing will be even more important five years from now than it is today.  Beane and McDermott know this. 

 

And, look, of course they’d love to build a team that's strong in all areas: running, passing, stopping the run, stopping the pass.  But the salary cap presents real limitations.  So, clearly understanding the trajectory of the game, Beane and McD built the Bills with one thing in mind: The Pass.

 

Offense.  McD recruited Daboll, a guy known to excel at passing concepts but not so much at running schemes, to coordinate the offense.  And if you look at our offensive linemen, almost all of them are better at pass pro than road grading for RBs.  Which makes sense when you think about the immense amount of money and draft capital we've spent on our QBs and wideouts.  Heck, even our backup QB is a former 1st round draft pick and Pro Bowler.   

 

Our RBs, on the other hand, are third round after-thoughts. 

 

Our O is built to pass. 

 

Defense.  It always strikes me as odd when people refer to the Bills as a 4-3 defense.  The Bills are a Nickel D.  We employed the Nickel an astounding 91% of the time last season – the most in the NFL by a wide margin.  In fact, it was the most in the hundred-year history of the NFL. 

 

One of our LBs – Milano – is a converted high school safety who excels in coverage.   

 

When we drafted the other LB, Edmunds, there were arguments about whether he should play inside or outside.  And I get the folks who didn't like Edmunds on the inside.  He's hardly a MLB run-stuffing thumper cast from the same mold as Chuck “Concrete Charlie” Bednarick or Dick “Stone Maniac” Butkus.  He’s a more of a finesse player – better at covering than tackling.  In fact, Edmunds is exactly what McD and Frazier want for this defense of theirs that doesn't utilize inside and outside linebackers in the traditional sense.

   

Our D is built to stop the pass. 

 

So the next time I throw the blue cheese – never ranch – at the tv because Daboll just called a pass on 4th and short or Edmunds didn’t shed his blocker and didn’t violently obliterate the ball carrier in the backfield, I’ll remind myself of this simple truth.  The Bills are all about one thing: The Pass. 

 

 

Edited September 28, 2021 by hondo in seattle

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Great, thoughtful take. I view what you're saying as the meat and potatoes, the rest is supplemental.

[eball]

Good post.  I’ll add this…play action is important, but you don’t need a “strong” running game for PA to be effective.  Daboll knows this as well.  I think the RBs the Bills have complement this offensive strategy perfectly.  Motor has the shiftiness and acceleration to break an occasional big play, and Moss has shown to be a tough runner and good pass catcher.  They both are proficient at blitz pickup — a must in this style of offense.

[Jobot]

Great post. I always think back to when the Pats would all of the sudden be unstoppable running the ball one game, and then go back to letting Brady do his thing the following game. When teams are selling out for the pass, a competent professional caliber team should be able to take advantage of those situations. It feels like the Bills are moving towards that, and continuity is required for this.

[RiotAct]

Ki-Jana Carter….. whoa.

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, eball said:

Good post.  I’ll add this…play action is important, but you don’t need a “strong” running game for PA to be effective.  Daboll knows this as well.  I think the RBs the Bills have complement this offensive strategy perfectly.  Motor has the shiftiness and acceleration to break an occasional big play, and Moss has shown to be a tough runner and good pass catcher.  They both are proficient at blitz pickup — a must in this style of offense.

 

Agreed.  I wish Motor would never drop a pass and Moss would never lay a football on the field, but they're good complementary backs.  Both are willing blockers.  Both are capable, if not spectacular, runners.  They're talented enough that most DCs won't sell out completely to stop the pass - though Spagnuolo did  in the AFC championship game.  

 

Like Jabott, I think Daboll needs to be smart.  When defenses are making passing hard and running easy, we need to run - aggressively.  Otherwise, let Josh light up the sky.  

 

27 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

Ki-Jana Carter….. whoa.

 

The era of the running back expired with a whimper.

 

 

Edited September 28, 2021 by hondo in seattle

[billsfan89]

The Bills are built for sustainable winning. The Bills have a young franchise QB locked into a long term deal. That alone sets you up for winning. However the Bills also have a lot of young talent and prime talent on both sides of the ball. Along with that they have a good coach and a good organization and ownership (for the most part). I know the Bills haven't always made the big time flashy "win now" moves due to fears of future flexibility but I think that's by design. The NFL playoffs often come down to luck and health. IF you put all your eggs into a 1-2 year run and then your window closes you are really banking on health and good matchups in a short window. Whereas if you stretch out your elite level run to 4-5 years you give yourself more chances to win even if you might have a lesser team your ticket to the dance gets punched more times.  

 

Both strategies have risks. Look at the Andy Reid Eagles. From 2000-2004 the team won 11 games or more and made the NFC championship game 4 times but only went to the Super Bowl once (in the first year they brought TO in) and lost. Had they made the all in splash move to get better at WR earlier in that run they might have won a Super Bowl. But then you have teams that go "All In" and only have a 1-2 year stretch to win and they get a key injury or some bad luck and collapse back to rebuilding. I tend to think that the modern NFL favors longer stretch runs of success. Giving yourself a really good team for 5 years is probably more likely to result in a SB win than ***** your future over for a 1-2 year window of having an elite team. 

[BillsShredder83]

I understand what Edmunds brings to the table in coverage and covering ground. I get that a long armed freak in the middle of our defense kills passing lanes in our scheme. I don't expect him to be Ray Lewis out there.... but it doesn't seem like much to ask him to be JUST average in tackling and run support. 

If this piece is so important to this team, then Beane needs to be in talks to draft someone who can fill the role. I know, I know, big task to ask, especially picking late in rd1 going forward, but that's what we pay him to do. Stack the cupboards for McD. If Edmunds could be coached up to fill the role, we would've seen it by now. The guy keeps our d on the field when they've done their 10/11ths of their job.

[longtimebillsfan]

8 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

I understand what Edmunds brings to the table in coverage and covering ground. I get that a long armed freak in the middle of our defense kills passing lanes in our scheme. I don't expect him to be Ray Lewis out there.... but it doesn't seem like much to ask him to be JUST average in tackling and run support. 

If this piece is so important to this team, then Beane needs to be in talks to draft someone who can fill the role. I know, I know, big task to ask, especially picking late in rd1 going forward, but that's what we pay him to do. Stack the cupboards for McD. If Edmunds could be coached up to fill the role, we would've seen it by now. The guy keeps our d on the field when they've done their 10/11ths of their job.

Edmunds did lead the team in tackles vs WFT.  He has made 2 pro bowls.  But I know, he picks up tackles 10 yards down the field, he didn't deserve the two pro bowls.  Edmunds sucks...... did I get that right?

[Chandler#81]

Nicely done, OP 👍

[DrDawkinstein]

4 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

When the Bills took OJ with the first pick of the 1969 draft, it was the fifth time that decade that a running back was the overall top pick.  One other top pick was an OT who was going to blow holes open for RBs.  And two were defenders who were highly talented at making RBs miserable.  Only one QB – Terry Baker - was taken first in the NFL draft in the 60s.  The 1960s still revolved around the RB. 

 

 

Great post.

 

One thing I'd add though is that while RBs were more highly regarded back then, it was still a QB-centric game. Always has been.

 

OJ, for all of his awards, records, and success, only played in ONE playoff game his entire career.

 

Even all of the early Super Bowl winners were built around a QB, not a RB. The 1967 Packers were built around Bart Starr, to the point their GM left star HB Paul Hornung unprotected in the expansion draft (and New Orleans scooped him right up). The Jets in SB 3 were about Namath. Cowboys, etc.

 

It's more that the Bills, and specifically Ralph Wilson, never really understood the importance of having a star/quality QB and thought they could just run the ball to a championship. But whether we knew it or not, the game has always revolved around the QB.

[Mango]

Good post. Letting the season play out before I commit to anything, we have seen a rollercoaster with this staff in the past, but the net result has been very good. 

Re: The Defense. I think you make a good point. I think the athleticism of Milano and Edmunds give Frasier and Co. a lot of options. But I think the defense has played better when I see Klein on the field. I have no data to back this up. Just the eye test, I seem to see him on the field a lot during some of the bigger plays and stops. If I were to guess, in those moments, Milano is playing more of the role of the big nickel safety, and Edmunds has some responsibility taken off of his plate so can play a lot faster with Klein owning the responsibility between the tackles. 

[BillsShredder83]

1 hour ago, longtimebillsfan said:

Edmunds did lead the team in tackles vs WFT.  He has made 2 pro bowls.  But I know, he picks up tackles 10 yards down the field, he didn't deserve the two pro bowls.  Edmunds sucks...... did I get that right?

Correct. Probowls are a joke, linebackers lead teams in tackles all the time without being good (see Poslusuvny, Paul). Idc about stats, watch the tape, he's in over his head in tackling and run support.

[Buffalo716]

7 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

When the Bills took OJ with the first pick of the 1969 draft, it was the fifth time that decade that a running back was the overall top pick.  One other top pick was an OT who was going to blow holes open for RBs.  And two were defenders who were highly talented at making RBs miserable.  Only one QB – Terry Baker - was taken first in the NFL draft in the 60s.  The 1960s still revolved around the RB.  

 

In contrast, in the 2010s, QBs were the top pick 8 of 10 years.   A running back hasn’t been the first player chosen in the draft since Ki-Jana Carter in 1995.

Thanks to changes in rules and the evolution of schemes, the NFL is more and more a passing league.  And that familiar trend is likely to continue for years to come.  Passing will be even more important five years from now than it is today.  Beane and McDermott know this. 

 

And, look, of course they’d love to build a team that's strong in all areas: running, passing, stopping the run, stopping the pass.  But the salary cap presents real limitations.  So, clearly understanding the trajectory of the game, Beane and McD built the Bills with one thing in mind: The Pass.

 

Offense.  McD recruited Daboll, a guy known to excel at passing concepts but not so much at running schemes, to coordinate the offense.  And if you look at our offensive linemen, almost all of them are better at pass pro than road grading for RBs.  Which makes sense when you think about the immense amount of money and draft capital we've spent on our QBs and wideouts.  Heck, even our backup QB is a former 1st round draft pick and Pro Bowler.   

 

Our RBs, on the other hand, are third round after-thoughts. 

 

Our O is built to pass. 

 

Defense.  It always strikes me as odd when people refer to the Bills as a 4-3 defense.  The Bills are a Nickel D.  We employed the Nickel an astounding 91% of the time last season – the most in the NFL by a wide margin.  In fact, it was the most in the hundred-year history of the NFL. 

 

One of our LBs – Milano – is a converted high school safety who excels in coverage.   

 

When we drafted the other LB, Edmunds, there were arguments about whether he should play inside or outside.  And I get the folks who didn't like Edmunds on the inside.  He's hardly a MLB run-stuffing thumper cast from the same mold as Chuck “Concrete Charlie” Bednarick or Dick “Stone Maniac” Butkus.  He’s a more of a finesse player – better at covering than tackling.  In fact, Edmunds is exactly what McD and Frazier want for this defense of theirs that doesn't utilize inside and outside linebackers in the traditional sense.

   

Our D is built to stop the pass. 

 

So the next time I throw the blue cheese – never ranch – at the tv because Daboll just called a pass on 4th and short or Edmunds didn’t shed his blocker and didn’t violently obliterate the ball carrier in the backfield, I’ll remind myself of this simple truth.  The Bills are all about one thing: The Pass. 

 

 

Agree with basically everything

 

But Tremaine statistically stops the run better than the pass .. his length makes him hard to throw over but his awareness is still not the greatest

 

The last two years his average tackle depth on run plays is 1.9 yards and 2.7

 

Ahead of roquan Smith and others

 

He may not be a top five linebacker but he solidly in the top 10 for inside backers

2 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

I understand what Edmunds brings to the table in coverage and covering ground. I get that a long armed freak in the middle of our defense kills passing lanes in our scheme. I don't expect him to be Ray Lewis out there.... but it doesn't seem like much to ask him to be JUST average in tackling and run support. 

If this piece is so important to this team, then Beane needs to be in talks to draft someone who can fill the role. I know, I know, big task to ask, especially picking late in rd1 going forward, but that's what we pay him to do. Stack the cupboards for McD. If Edmunds could be coached up to fill the role, we would've seen it by now. The guy keeps our d on the field when they've done their 10/11ths of their job.

2019 his average tackle depth on run plays was 1.9 yd... 2.7 last year

 

Both ahead of roquan Smith  

 

He plays his correct Gap most of the time.. his run stuffing over 4 years has actually been more consistent than his coverage 

 

He just doesn't blow people up like Ray Lewis 

 

 

Edited September 28, 2021 by Buffalo716

[RoyBatty is alive]

2 hours ago, longtimebillsfan said:

Edmunds did lead the team in tackles vs WFT.  He has made 2 pro bowls.  But I know, he picks up tackles 10 yards down the field, he didn't deserve the two pro bowls.  Edmunds sucks...... did I get that right?

 

He is the middle linebacker, most MLB should lead his team in tackles.  As far as the Pro Bowl popularity contest, ehh.

[RoyBatty is alive]

2 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

The Bills are built for sustainable winning. The Bills have a young franchise QB locked into a long term deal. That alone sets you up for winning. However the Bills also have a lot of young talent and prime talent on both sides of the ball. Along with that they have a good coach and a good organization and ownership (for the most part). I know the Bills haven't always made the big time flashy "win now" moves due to fears of future flexibility but I think that's by design. The NFL playoffs often come down to luck and health. IF you put all your eggs into a 1-2 year run and then your window closes you are really banking on health and good matchups in a short window. Whereas if you stretch out your elite level run to 4-5 years you give yourself more chances to win even if you might have a lesser team your ticket to the dance gets punched more times.  

 

Both strategies have risks. Look at the Andy Reid Eagles. From 2000-2004 the team won 11 games or more and made the NFC championship game 4 times but only went to the Super Bowl once (in the first year they brought TO in) and lost. Had they made the all in splash move to get better at WR earlier in that run they might have won a Super Bowl. But then you have teams that go "All In" and only have a 1-2 year stretch to win and they get a key injury or some bad luck and collapse back to rebuilding. I tend to think that the modern NFL favors longer stretch runs of success. Giving yourself a really good team for 5 years is probably more likely to result in a SB win than ***** your future over for a 1-2 year window of having an elite team. 

 

A lot of that is Owner-HC-GM dependent.  We have the QB answered for a long time so if you are a believer that we have stability in the other three components, we could be in for a sustainable run.  

[Blainorama5]

7 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

So the next time I throw the blue cheese – never ranch – at the tv

THIS was the most important statement I read. 👍

 

j/k  Good take and thanks for posting!

[Rubes]

We played nickel defense 100% of the time against WFT. Good point, there.

 

I'm still nervous to see how this defense holds up against a strong running team like TEN, CLE, even KC. We'll see.

 

[SoCal Deek]

Great post. It just shows how 'quick on your feet' you have to be as a GM.  I'm sure some of what the Bills were building was because they KNEW they had to play against Tom Brady twice a year, and now.....not.  The one constant is change. 

[WideNine]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

Agree with basically everything

 

But Tremaine statistically stops the run better than the pass .. his length makes him hard to throw over but his awareness is still not the greatest

 

The last two years his average tackle depth on run plays is 1.9 yards and 2.7

 

Ahead of roquan Smith and others

 

He may not be a top five linebacker but he solidly in the top 10 for inside backers

2019 his average tackle depth on run plays was 1.9 yd... 2.7 last year

 

Both ahead of roquan Smith  

 

He plays his correct Gap most of the time.. his run stuffing over 4 years has actually been more consistent than his coverage 

 

He just doesn't blow people up like Ray Lewis 

 

 

 

Interesting.

 

Where are these tackling depth statistics coming from; Saw a Twitter mention, but interested in where the source data is coming from and how it is determined. Seems odd to me when the league average yards per carry is around 4 yards per carry each year with the lowest average usually around 3 yards. 

 

Last season we gave up an average of 4.3 YPC... with Edmunds in on the bulk of our tackles the numbers seem off. Of course Edmunds could be the statistical outlier on the team with all the TFLs or tackles for no gain, but my eyes tell me that was not the case last season.

 

Perhaps I just am not getting what they mean by "tackling depth", but those numbers seem ambitious for just about any off-the-ball linebacker let alone Edmunds coming up to make stops.

 

 

 

Edited September 28, 2021 by WideNine

[Buffalo716]

2 hours ago, WideNine said:

 

Interesting.

 

Where are these tackling depth statistics coming from; Saw a Twitter mention, but interested in where the source data is coming from and how it is determined. Seems odd to me when the league average yards per carry is around 4 yards per carry each year with the lowest average usually around 3 yards. 

 

Last season we gave up an average of 4.3 YPC... with Edmunds in on the bulk of our tackles the numbers seem off. Of course Edmunds could be the statistical outlier on the team with all the TFLs or tackles for no gain, but my eyes tell me that was not the case last season.

 

Perhaps I just am not getting what they mean by "tackling depth", but those numbers seem ambitious for just about any off-the-ball linebacker let alone Edmunds coming up to make stops.

 

 

 

 

2.6 average depth of tackle

 

As a whole our team was 4.3 yards per carry... That includes tackles by safeties and cornerbacks 

 

The statistic means every time Milano and Tremaine tackled somebody on a run play... The average was 2.6 

 

Now that Doesn't account for run plays where he didn't make the tackle... But when he does get a read.. he reacts pretty quick to run

Edited September 28, 2021 by Buffalo716

[Buffalo Barbarian]

But i prefer we run on 4th and short

 

 

[WideNine]

59 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

2.6 average depth of tackle

 

As a whole our team was 4.3 yards per carry... That includes tackles by safeties and cornerbacks 

 

The statistic means every time Milano and Tremaine tackled somebody on a run play... The average was 2.6 

 

Now that Doesn't account for run plays where he didn't make the tackle... But when he does get a read.. he reacts pretty quick to run

 

So when he goes for a tackle on a run and does not miss or the runner does not break through an arm tackle these are his stats....

 

Interesting. Honestly trying to determine if I think it is meaningful and not just being difficult.

 

 

 

 

[Buffalo716]

10 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

So when he goes for a tackle on a run and does not miss or the runner does not break through an arm tackle these are his stats....

 

Interesting. Honestly trying to determine if I think it is meaningful and not just being difficult.

 

 

 

 

he missed 15 tackles last year, while playing banged up 

 

Definitely not a good number.. but not enough to really skew that number that we just talked about

 

And some of those missed tackles were on passes 

 

So let's say 10 missed run tackles out of 90+ tackles  

 

It might move the needle a bit but not that much.. seeing as the tackle is probably cleaned up two yards later by Milano or Hyde / poyer 

 

I don't think the stat means much

 

But it means that he sticks the running around the line of scrimmage a lot

 

 

Edited September 28, 2021 by Buffalo716

[Punching Bag]

13 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

Defense.  It always strikes me as odd when people refer to the Bills as a 4-3 defense.  The Bills are a Nickel D.  We employed the Nickel an astounding 91% of the time last season – the most in the NFL by a wide margin.  In fact, it was the most in the hundred-year history of the NFL. 

 

Agree it is built for the pass both offense and defense.  Even special teams are built for it.  They replaced punter with one who can kick it out of endzone reliably and is better at pinning in endzone (when winds do not play with ball).  Same returner - they replaced someone who was steady but non make big plays by a player who can make very big plays.  This plays into current design for the Bills are trying to prevent big plays and they want as many plays as possible to defend and for offense having some as good field position as possible.

 

One point however - both of the starting LBs were injured at one point and that contributed to nickel defense for #5 LB or even #4 LB was not as good as #3 CB.