Deshaun Watson officially requests trade from Houston

[Doc]

8 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

If I were the Texans, I’d take less from an NFC team than an AFC.  Not significantly less but still less.  I’d take bridgewater and three 1sts and a 2nd over the Jets four #1’s and Darnold.  

 

There are other things besides draft picks.  As I mentioned in another thread, the Panthers could trade the 8th overall, McCaffrey and a 1st next year, maybe more.

[BuffaloRebound]

16 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

There are other things besides draft picks.  As I mentioned in another thread, the Panthers could trade the 8th overall, McCaffrey and a 1st next year, maybe more.

Yes, but I can understand why Houston would rather a 1st round pick than a RB making $8m per year when they are in rebuild mode.  

[Doc]

2 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Yes, but I can understand why Houston would rather a 1st round pick than a RB making $8m per year when they are in rebuild mode.  

 

CMc is more than just a RB and picks aren't sure things.  It will be even more of a crap shoot this year given the lack of college games last year.

[ColoradoBills]

7 hours ago, mannc said:

I just don’t see any NFC team that has enough trade bait to make it happen, unless the Niners are going to trade a couple ones, plus Bosa.

 

The only team that could try to do it the NFC would be the Lions.

They have the #7 this year and 2 1st's next year and if they ate Goff's 2022 Roster Bonus of $15,5M it would essentially

mean Goff only has a quarantined contract of $27M in 2021 with no Dead Cap after that.

So they would have plenty of options to make a Watson trade work.

 

A bit of a long shot but the more I think about it it's not that crazy.

 

[Beast]

Watson will be taking snaps for the Houston Texans next season.

[CincyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

CMc is more than just a RB and picks aren't sure things.  It will be even more of a crap shoot this year given the lack of college games last year.

 

And CMC would provide Texan fans with a superstar in exchange for a superstar. It would be a clear sign they aren't tanking.

 

IMO IF the Texans have to trade Watson their best deal is shipping him off to the NFC for CMC and 2 Panther 1st round picks.

 

 

[purple haze]

6 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

The only team that could try to do it the NFC would be the Lions.

They have the #7 this year and 2 1st's next year and if they ate Goff's 2022 Roster Bonus of $15,5M it would essentially

mean Goff only has a quarantined contract of $27M in 2021 with no Dead Cap after that.

So they would have plenty of options to make a Watson trade work.

 

A bit of a long shot but the more I think about it it's not that crazy.

 

Watson has a no trade clause.  He has no reason to okay a trade to the Lions.  He can say no and still maintain leverage over Texans’ management based on the fact he can simply not show up until week 10 if at all.   

[Doc]

6 hours ago, purple haze said:

Watson has a no trade clause.  He has no reason to okay a trade to the Lions.  He can say no and still maintain leverage over Texans’ management based on the fact he can simply not show up until week 10 if at all.   

 

If he's OK being traded to the Jets...

[Mr. WEO]

19 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

If I were the Texans, I’d take less from an NFC team than an AFC.  Not significantly less but still less.  I’d take bridgewater and three 1sts and a 2nd over the Jets four #1’s and Darnold.  

 

You would take Bridegwater and 3 1sts over Darnold and 4 1sts??  Why?

[BuffaloRebound]

8 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

You would take Bridegwater and 3 1sts over Darnold and 4 1sts??  Why?

Yes.  I’d take Bridgewater, 3 1sts and a 2nd over Darnold and 4 1sts to get Watson out of the AFC if I were the Texans.  I wouldn’t want to potentially have to play him every year and it’s one less franchise QB in the conference for the next 10-15 years.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

14 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Yes.  I’d take Bridgewater, 3 1sts and a 2nd over Darnold and 4 1sts to get Watson out of the AFC if I were the Texans.  I wouldn’t want to potentially have to play him every year and it’s one less franchise QB in the conference for the next 10-15 years.  

 

I agree. But the only caveat is that if you trade with the Jets you could potentially get the 2nd overall pick. That could be a big deal if the Texans have a franchise QB grade on any of the QB's after Lawerence. But I'm not sure the Jets would trade 4 first round picks with one of them being the #2 overall pick. If I am the Jets I would say if you want the #2 overall included then the price is just 3 # 1's. 

[YoloinOhio]

 

[mannc]

That’s just silly to say they should take 3 plus Bridgewater instead of 4 from the Jets.  First of all, the Jets’ picks include the number 2 overall pick this year, which the Texans could easily flip for even more picks.  And I’m no fan of Darnold, but there’s at least a chance he can become a good starting QB in this league; Bridgewater is a back-up level qb at best. And of course, 4 first round picks is substantially better than 3, especially when one of those 3 picks is all the way into 2023.  
 

This “gotta trade him out of the conference” stuff is way overrated and is basically just superstition.

Edited February 25, 2021 by mannc

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 minute ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

And that's the right move by them. We'll see how it ultimately shakes out. Unless someone offers an absolutely ridiculous return I'd just take it up to the opening kick and re-evaluate from there. Of course if Watson misses all of training camp and pre-season that's not a good sign. But my money is on him showing up for training camp. We'll see.

1 minute ago, mannc said:

 

This “gotta trade him out of the conference” stuff is way overrated and is basically just superstition.

It's definitely not superstition or even over rated. As I said, it is greatly complicated this year because the Jets and Dolphins both have a need for a QB and are by far the most draft capital rich teams in the league. Very unique off-season in that regard. But I don't exactly believe the Jets would be willing to give up 4 1st round picks if one of them is the #2 overall. That is a lot even for Watson. 

[mannc]

5 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

That is what Houston wants the rest of the league to think.  They don’t want to be seen as anxious, or even willing, to trade Watson, at least at this point. No rush to do anything until shortly before the draft.

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

And that's the right move by them. We'll see how it ultimately shakes out. Unless someone offers an absolutely ridiculous return I'd just take it up to the opening kick and re-evaluate from there. Of course if Watson misses all of training camp and pre-season that's not a good sign. But my money is on him showing up for training camp. We'll see.

 

I'd let him sit as long as he wants.  Again they won just 4 games with him last year and aren't going to fare any better this year whether he played or not.  And again, at the minimum, if he desperately wants to be traded, it has to start with him repaying all his guaranteed money.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

 

I'd let him sit as long as he wants.  Again they won just 4 games with him last year and aren't going to fare any better this year whether he played or not.  And again, at the minimum, if he desperately wants to be traded, it has to start with him repaying all his guaranteed money.

 

Yeah. And even if he sits the entire year, I don't know that his price tag drops substantially going into next off-season. Maybe down one first round pick in value? From 4 to 3 or from 3 to 2. That's a risk I would take if it means possibly mending the relationship for the long-term. 

[Doc]

17 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Yeah. And even if he sits the entire year, I don't know that his price tag drops substantially going into next off-season. Maybe down one first round pick in value? From 4 to 3 or from 3 to 2. That's a risk I would take if it means possibly mending the relationship for the long-term. 

 

If he sits out, his price tag/value won't decrease at all.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Yes.  I’d take Bridgewater, 3 1sts and a 2nd over Darnold and 4 1sts to get Watson out of the AFC if I were the Texans.  I wouldn’t want to potentially have to play him every year and it’s one less franchise QB in the conference for the next 10-15 years.  

 

Texans probably aren't worried about playing Watson in the conference....plus, he's not going to be around in 10-15 years.

 

I would take the better QB and the larger number of 1sts and build my team with all that capital.  Darnold's ceiling is higher than backup QB Teddy B.   If he lasts that long, Bridgewater's ceiling/career may be that of Fitzy's.

[NewEra]

15 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

And CMC would provide Texan fans with a superstar in exchange for a superstar. It would be a clear sign they aren't tanking.

 

IMO IF the Texans have to trade Watson their best deal is shipping him off to the NFC for CMC and 2 Panther 1st round picks.

 

 

You really think that a running back (with a 13-16 mill cap hit) and 2 1st rd picks is the best they can do for Watson?  BOB is no longer running the team.  Maybe CMC + 2 1sts + a mix of 2nds and 3rds.  Houston isn’t trading a draft pick that will be used on a QB that a team hopes will be a great QB. They are trading the best QB that will ever be traded in the prime of his career.  

[Mr. WEO]

32 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

If he sits out, his price tag/value won't decrease at all.

 

His price would be highest now, after what was easily his best career season and a lot of teams looking.  He sits a year then teams will be offering less knowing that Houston would be much more desperate to unload him.  His value to the Texans is maximized right now--they don't have to move him.  His value to the Texans after a year of sitting out in protest will drop his value to the Texans--every interested team will adjust their offer accordingly. 

[BuffaloRebound]

3 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Texans probably aren't worried about playing Watson in the conference....plus, he's not going to be around in 10-15 years.

 

I would take the better QB and the larger number of 1sts and build my team with all that capital.  Darnold's ceiling is higher than backup QB Teddy B.   If he lasts that long, Bridgewater's ceiling/career may be that of Fitzy's.

I’d rather have Bridgewater than Darnold if I’m the Texans.  They are in complete rebuild mode.  Darnold hasn’t shown anything in 3 years, and in the unlikely event he turns it around in year 4, you’re stuck with the decision of having to pay him $25m+ for 1 good year and 3 bad ones.  No thanks to Darnold.  Bridgewater is a good bridge QB and what that franchise will need if they deal Watson.  

[Doc]

19 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

His price would be highest now, after what was easily his best career season and a lot of teams looking.  He sits a year then teams will be offering less knowing that Houston would be much more desperate to unload him.  His value to the Texans is maximized right now--they don't have to move him.  His value to the Texans after a year of sitting out in protest will drop his value to the Texans--every interested team will adjust their offer accordingly. 

 

If he sits out, his last season will still have been his career best.  It won't change anything.

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

 

If he sits out, his last season will still have been his career best.  It won't change anything.

 

 

Of course it will.  Texans aren't desperate to get rid of him right now.  After a year of sitting out, they would be very desperate.  That changes the offer in any transaction.

[Doc]

Just now, Mr. WEO said:

Of course it will.  Texans aren't desperate to get rid of him right now.  After a year of sitting out, they would be very desperate.  That changes the offer in any transaction.

 

Why would they be desperate?  They're recouping the money they've paid him and again they would have had a bad record with or without him.  And teams will still want him.

[Mr. WEO]

17 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I’d rather have Bridgewater than Darnold if I’m the Texans.  They are in complete rebuild mode.  Darnold hasn’t shown anything in 3 years, and in the unlikely event he turns it around in year 4, you’re stuck with the decision of having to pay him $25m+ for 1 good year and 3 bad ones.  No thanks to Darnold.  Bridgewater is a good bridge QB and what that franchise will need if they deal Watson.  

 

Teddy B's current contract is 21 million per year, for a backup level QB.  If the Texans are just looking to play for a few years at their current level untill they can get a franchise QB,  then might as well pick up Fitzpatrick for almost half that much.

[mannc]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Of course it will.  Texans aren't desperate to get rid of him right now.  After a year of sitting out, they would be very desperate.  That changes the offer in any transaction.

What you’re saying is inarguably true.  Doc just likes to make categorical statements with nothing to back them up.  He’s done it throughout this thread.

[Mr. WEO]

2 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Why would they be desperate?  They're recouping the money they've paid him and again they would have had a bad record with or without him.  And teams will still want him.

 

Again, they don't have to trade him this year, sot they can sit back and entertain offers.  He may play after all.  If he sits out, they will have to trade him-- he would be useless to them.  Why would teams offer the same after the guy put himself on the shelf for a year (after his only elite career year)?

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

What you’re saying is inarguably true.  Doc just likes to make categorical statements with nothing to back them up.  He’s done it throughout this thread.

 

 

Give him a few more pages and he'll come around, like it was his thought all along...

[BuffaloRebound]

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Teddy B's current contract is 21 million per year, for a backup level QB.  If the Texans are just looking to play for a few years at their current level untill they can get a franchise QB,  then might as well pick up Fitzpatrick for almost half that much.

Fair enough about Bridgewater’s contract.  He’s due $17m in 2021 and $20m in 2022.  That’s a lot for a bridge QB.  Fitz at $10m is better option. But I’d still take Bridgewater over Darnold.  

[Doc]

36 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Again, they don't have to trade him this year, sot they can sit back and entertain offers.  He may play after all.  If he sits out, they will have to trade him-- he would be useless to them.  Why would teams offer the same after the guy put himself on the shelf for a year (after his only elite career year)?

 

 

Why wouldn't they offer them the same in a year's time?  Will he suddenly have forgotten how to play football?  That makes no sense.

 

36 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Give him a few more pages and he'll come around, like it was his thought all along...

 

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Fair enough about Bridgewater’s contract.  He’s due $17m in 2021 and $20m in 2022.  That’s a lot for a bridge QB.  Fitz at $10m is better option. But I’d still take Bridgewater over Darnold.  

 

I don't think we've seen the best of Darnold.  Teddy has shown all he's got.  He's essentially TT with a reattached leg. 

 

30 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

 

Why wouldn't they offer them the same in a year's time?  Will he suddenly have forgotten how to play football?  That makes no sense.

 

 

 

Already explained.  Buyers smell a desperate seller.

[Doc]

13 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Already explained.  Buyers smell a desperate seller.

 

You didn't even come close to explaining why the Texans would need to feel/be desperate in a year's time.  

[Mr. WEO]

Just now, Doc said:

 

You didn't even come close to explaining why the Texans would need to feel/be desperate in a year's time.  

 

Ok doc.

[Doc]

26 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Ok doc.

 

Oh wait, it was the "smell." 

[TheFunPolice]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Why would they be desperate?  They're recouping the money they've paid him and again they would have had a bad record with or without him.  And teams will still want him.

 

Deal making 101. 

 

Someone has something you want and they don't want to sell it, and don't need to. You need to come in with a crazy deal just to get their attention. Once you do that, they see how desperate you are for it and ask for even more. Don't want to pay it? OK. They weren't looking to make the deal, you were. And you'll be back, trying to "meet halfway" as you negotiate against yourself and end up offering even more than your already insane "get their attention" offer. 

 

That's the position the Texans are in right now, but it is not going to last. 

 

The price for Watson's rights is at its peak now. Right now the Texans can say they have no desire to trade him and that he will play, and maybe he will. It's still believable, to some degree, that he is their QB. 

 

If I'm Houston I can say You want him? The price is going to really, really hurt. If we even have the conversation. You are going to have to blow us away, because he's our guy. 

 

All the pressure in that deal is on whichever team tries to get Houston's attention. 

 

Now if Watson eventually refuses to play for the Texans, and even sits out and starts to miss games things change. Now if I'm Carolina (for example) I realize that the Texans are in a  tough spot. The longer this is an issue the more and more impossible it becomes for Watson to put the Texans uniform on and take the field for them. 

 

Thus, they either make a move by trading him or squander the chance to turn a mess into a win for them by digging in. 

 

Sure, he will still have value, but now I know Houston has a real problem and I'm more likely to want a good deal. 

 

The one who makes the phone call is in the weaker position, value of the deal-wise. That's fine, if you want the deal badly enough, but if it gets to the point where the Texans are calling teams back the offers will go down. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Teddy B's current contract is 21 million per year, for a backup level QB.  If the Texans are just looking to play for a few years at their current level untill they can get a franchise QB,  then might as well pick up Fitzpatrick for almost half that much.

Fitz >>>> Bridgewater. Super nice guy but he is at best a game manager. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

[CincyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, NewEra said:

You really think that a running back (with a 13-16 mill cap hit) and 2 1st rd picks is the best they can do for Watson?  BOB is no longer running the team.  Maybe CMC + 2 1sts + a mix of 2nds and 3rds.  Houston isn’t trading a draft pick that will be used on a QB that a team hopes will be a great QB. They are trading the best QB that will ever be traded in the prime of his career.  

 

First off I don't think they will trade Watson.  My response was that in the event they had no choice landing CMC and 2 first round picks would be excellent.

 

As for CMC how quickly we forget his 2019 season.  He is one of only 2 RB's IMO who can carry a team on his back with the other being Henry.  In the modern era of football where super talented QB's throw the ball all over the field and desperate D-coordinators try to take away the intermediate & deep ball by allowing the check down pass, CMC could be a game changing player.

 

CMC has never played with a great QB who was a real threat to push the ball down the field.  Yet even with defensive coordinators knowing that CMC was the Panthers only viable offensive threat in 2019 he had over 100 catches WHILE rushing for well over 1,000 yards.  If you put CMC in the hands of a truly creative offensive coordinator who is operating a robust passing attack he would be close to unstoppable.

 

This is why if there is even the remotest chance the Bills could get CMC they should do it even if meant not signing another free agent.  Like Thurman Thomas was the key ingredient to the Bills glory years CMC, Allen & Diggs would be an unstoppable trio who would put the Bills into multiple Super Bowls.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

I don't think we've seen the best of Darnold.  Teddy has shown all he's got.  He's essentially TT with a reattached leg. 

 

I think Teddy is a more accurate thrower than Tyrod and he has never really been a running QB. He had 200 yards as a rookie but it was trending down his 2nd year before the injury ahead of his 3rd season and would have continued to regardless IMO because he is a pocket QB. So he is different to Tyrod in that respect. Where he is similar is he does not throw guys open and he holds the football too long waiting for a guy to be college open. Kinda like Tua did this past year too. Teddy has never developed beyond that. Too safe of a decision maker. 

 

I agree we haven't seen the best of Darnold. If Darnold is available and I am say Washington or New England or Pittsburgh that is who I'd be calling about. Frankly that's where I'd have gone first if I was Indy too. If I am going to take a punt on a maybe this year because I am not in a position to draft a guy then Darnold would be that maybe. 

[Doc]

12 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

Deal making 101. 

 

Someone has something you want and they don't want to sell it, and don't need to. You need to come in with a crazy deal just to get their attention. Once you do that, they see how desperate you are for it and ask for even more. Don't want to pay it? OK. They weren't looking to make the deal, you were. And you'll be back, trying to "meet halfway" as you negotiate against yourself and end up offering even more than your already insane "get their attention" offer. 

 

That's the position the Texans are in right now, but it is not going to last. 

 

The price for Watson's rights is at its peak now. Right now the Texans can say they have no desire to trade him and that he will play, and maybe he will. It's still believable, to some degree, that he is their QB. 

 

If I'm Houston I can say You want him? The price is going to really, really hurt. If we even have the conversation. You are going to have to blow us away, because he's our guy. 

 

All the pressure in that deal is on whichever team tries to get Houston's attention. 

 

Now if Watson eventually refuses to play for the Texans, and even sits out and starts to miss games things change. Now if I'm Carolina (for example) I realize that the Texans are in a  tough spot. The longer this is an issue the more and more impossible it becomes for Watson to put the Texans uniform on and take the field for them. 

 

Thus, they either make a move by trading him or squander the chance to turn a mess into a win for them by digging in. 

 

Sure, he will still have value, but now I know Houston has a real problem and I'm more likely to want a good deal. 

 

The one who makes the phone call is in the weaker position, value of the deal-wise. That's fine, if you want the deal badly enough, but if it gets to the point where the Texans are calling teams back the offers will go down. 

 

As of right now, Watson is basically saying he's done with the team and will sit out.  Teams see this.  The thing is, the Texans aren't even fielding calls for him so no one is coming in with any deal, crazy or otherwise.  So even if he were to sit out next year and gets traded next off-season, we'll never know what the Texans lost by waiting a year.

 

But he will have just as much value next year as this year because he'll still be a top-5 QB and several teams will have an interest in him.  That won't change by sitting-out a year.  The only thing that will happen is he'll lose money and that just might change his mind about sitting out, which is probably what the Texans are hoping happens.  Again they can be a bottom-3 team just as easily without him as with him.