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matter2003

Josh Allen didn't disprove the narrative accuracy can't improve, Alex Smith did and people just forgot

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Surprisingly I looked up Alex Smith's number and his first 5 years with the 49ers his completion percentages were 50.7, 58.1, 48.7, 60.5, 59.6...

 

Then for whatever reason, his last year with the 49ers and then with the Chiefs(after his first year), his completion percentages were among the highest in the NFL. For 5 straight years his completion percentage was 65% or higher. So in effect, Allen is simply showing what Alex Smith showed 15 years ago....that accuracy and completion percentage can be drastically changed over the course of your career. People apparently just forgot.

 

image.thumb.png.db4a40400f41971f0fda11515867bab6.png

 

Edited by matter2003
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Just now, matter2003 said:

Surprisingly I looked up Alex Smith's number and his first 5 years with the 49ers his completion percentages were 50.7, 58.1, 48.7, 60.5, 59.6...

 

Then for whatever reason, his last year with the 49ers and then with the Chiefs(after his first year), his completion percentages were among the highest in the NFL. For 5 straight years his completion percentage was 65% or higher. So in effect, Allen is simply showing what Alex Smith showed 15 years ago....that accuracy and completion percentage can be drastically changed over the course of your career.

 

image.thumb.png.db4a40400f41971f0fda11515867bab6.png

 

He was extremely accurate in college and then to play for some truly wretched offenses in SF. https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/alex-smith-3.html

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To some extent, but in College he was a 66% passer.  His first few years in the league I don't remember him having weapons or protection, so I think that has more to do with his early NFL numbers.

 

Allen coming out of college was thought of as inaccurate, that was not a knock on Smith at the time, if anything he was thought to be a "System" qb who only thrived in College because of the short high percentage passing attack.

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10 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Matthew Stafford says hi

so does Matt Ryan. Look at Matt Ryans stats from BC.

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38 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Surprisingly I looked up Alex Smith's number and his first 5 years with the 49ers his completion percentages were 50.7, 58.1, 48.7, 60.5, 59.6...

 

Then for whatever reason, his last year with the 49ers and then with the Chiefs(after his first year), his completion percentages were among the highest in the NFL. For 5 straight years his completion percentage was 65% or higher. So in effect, Allen is simply showing what Alex Smith showed 15 years ago....that accuracy and completion percentage can be drastically changed over the course of your career. People apparently just forgot.

 

image.thumb.png.db4a40400f41971f0fda11515867bab6.png

 


it’s not that it’s impossible, it’s just very rare. You can draft a franchise qb in the 6th round but I’m guessing you didn’t take out a second mortgage to bet on Fromm or peterman either. 
 

hopefully josh is the exception to the “rule”

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From what I remember, Alex Smith wasn’t a guy who would push the ball downfield or go deep all that often. Lots of short completions turned into long gains by the receivers. 
 

Completion percentage and accuracy aren’t the same

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49 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Surprisingly I looked up Alex Smith's number and his first 5 years with the 49ers his completion percentages were 50.7, 58.1, 48.7, 60.5, 59.6...

 

Then for whatever reason, his last year with the 49ers and then with the Chiefs(after his first year), his completion percentages were among the highest in the NFL. For 5 straight years his completion percentage was 65% or higher. So in effect, Allen is simply showing what Alex Smith showed 15 years ago....that accuracy and completion percentage can be drastically changed over the course of your career. People apparently just forgot.

 

image.thumb.png.db4a40400f41971f0fda11515867bab6.png

 

 

Alex Smith was drafted #1 overall because he had completion % >65% for 2 years in college and extremely high collegiate TD/INT ratio 6:1 or something like that.

He was felt to be a bust because he didn't demonstrate that in the NFL, but strangely enough when put with a competent OC and HC he magically improved. 

 

There have been a number of similar stories of QB who struggled in the NFL at first then "came alive" after several years, including Drew Brees.  But usually they had demonstrated far better accuracy and passing chops at higher competition than Josh Allen.

 

9 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

From what I remember, Alex Smith wasn’t a guy who would push the ball downfield or go deep all that often. Lots of short completions turned into long gains by the receivers. 
 

Completion percentage and accuracy aren’t the same

 

This too

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20 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Alex Smith was drafted #1 overall because he had completion % >65% for 2 years in college and extremely high collegiate TD/INT ratio 6:1 or something like that.

He was felt to be a bust because he didn't demonstrate that in the NFL, but strangely enough when put with a competent OC and HC he magically improved. 

 

There have been a number of similar stories of QB who struggled in the NFL at first then "came alive" after several years, including Drew Brees.  But usually they had demonstrated far better accuracy and passing chops at higher competition than Josh Allen.

 

Right. You could magically transport Josh Allen back to the AFL of the 1960s or the NFL of the early 1970s and he'd have Daryle Lamonica type completion numbers (48 - 52% range ... and that was perfectly good for a guy who threw downfield the vast majority of the time)

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45 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Matthew Stafford says hi

 

Yep. Favre before him. U throw spread short passing concepts, WR protections, and more penalties for DBs. Id think favre would have an even better comp % today.

 

The recent examples are bad - bortles, locker, Gabbert. So thats what people look at. 

5 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Right. You could magically transport Josh Allen back to the AFL of the 1960s or the NFL of the early 1970s and he'd have Daryle Lamonica type completion numbers (48 - 52% range ... and that was perfectly good for a guy who threw downfield the vast majority of the time)

 

Going over the middle in those days was like a death sentence too. Harder to find space with less defensive holding, less PI, more contact was legal. 

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Josh is accurate when he sets his feet. When he gets outside of himself and too gassed up, he misses, it is what it is. He just needs to have better physical awareness of what he’s doing and he’ll be fine.

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51 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Brees will always be that guy for me.

 

Brees was over 61% in college in the Big 10 (hardly a pass-happy conference back then) with nearly 1700 attempts.  I don't think he was ever considered inaccurate.

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2 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Brees was over 61% in college in the Big 10 (hardly a pass-happy conference back then) with nearly 1700 attempts.  I don't think he was ever considered inaccurate.


He most certainly was in his first 2 NFL seasons.

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Rich Gannon was 100% right about Allen. Allen is very accurate when he sets his feet properly. He's had issues consistently setting his feet. His accuracy has improved, and will continue to improve the more consistently Allen is with proper footwork. 

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1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:


He most certainly was in his first 2 NFL seasons.

 

Oh, ok.  I guess I was looking at the question being one of a guy who was never considered accurate before he got to the NFL and then changed that narrative.  And Alex Smith wasn't that guy either.

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1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

Surprisingly I looked up Alex Smith's number and his first 5 years with the 49ers his completion percentages were 50.7, 58.1, 48.7, 60.5, 59.6...

 

Then for whatever reason, his last year with the 49ers and then with the Chiefs(after his first year), his completion percentages were among the highest in the NFL. For 5 straight years his completion percentage was 65% or higher. So in effect, Allen is simply showing what Alex Smith showed 15 years ago....that accuracy and completion percentage can be drastically changed over the course of your career. People apparently just forgot.

 

image.thumb.png.db4a40400f41971f0fda11515867bab6.png

 

 

This is a great example.  

 

The thing about accuracy is that it's measured by completion percentage and that metric depends on a lot of variables.  

 

I don't think 'aim' can improve much over time.  Probably a little - but I think it has a genetic limit.  

 

But a QB can improve his footwork and other mechanics.  Better biomechanics can lead to better ball placement.


And QB "accuracy" is more than just aim and ball placement.  Pre- and post-snap reads, for example, are going to impact completion percentage.  Obviously, it's far easier to complete a pass to a wide open receiver than one tightly covered.  

 

The quality of the protection and the receiving corps will impact completion percentage too.  A QB with a clean pocket and receivers who run quick, crisp routes and hang on to the ball is more likely to pile up completions than a QB with a porous OL and stone-handed, lead-footed wideouts.  

 

The quality of the coaching staff impacts a QBs performance too with their their pregame preparation, play-calling, and so on.  

 

Aim may not get better with time but the other variables can and sometimes do.  

 

Some folks have insisted all along that Allen's aim was just fine.  When he was in a clean pocket and set his feet properly, his ball placement was good.  His ball placement is far more likely to be bad when things go wrong and he doesn't open his hips, etc.  Josh seems to be fixing that.  

 

I think it's clear that accuracy can get better over time depending on what's making it bad in the first place.  

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1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

From what I remember, Alex Smith wasn’t a guy who would push the ball downfield or go deep all that often. Lots of short completions turned into long gains by the receivers. 
 

Completion percentage and accuracy aren’t the same

 

That's not quite what everyone's been saying around here the previous two years, is it?

 

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