ESPN top 100 season prediction - 2 Bills make it

[Royale with Cheese]

Two Bills on here....

#26 and #79.  It's not Cody Ford or Harrison Phillips if you guys are wondering.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29766900/nfl-rank-predicting-best-100-players-2020-nfl-season

[Stank_Nasty]

This slotting for white is fair and he's listed as the #2 corner behind gilmore. Diggs may be a little low but the list is coming from ESPN which means they were thinking much more about how bad they think Allen is as opposed to how good Diggs can be.

 

 

 

I read the ESPN+ article predicting players that were excluded but would be on next years list. Edmunds was mentioned.

[ChevyVanMiller]

"Signature stat: White had 84 targets without allowing a touchdown when he was targeted as the nearest defender in coverage. Only Stephon Gilmore had more targets (96) without allowing a TD, per NFL Next Gen Stats."

 

Did I only imagine John Brown toasting Gilmore for that TD in Foxboro last year?

[King Allen of New York]

Well, technically yes - but, Gilmore wasn't the closest defender in coverage for that TD.  The closest defender for that long TD was McCourty.

[freddyjj]

7 minutes ago, ChevyVanMiller said:

"Signature stat: White had 84 targets without allowing a touchdown when he was targeted as the nearest defender in coverage. Only Stephon Gilmore had more targets (96) without allowing a TD, per NFL Next Gen Stats."

 

Did I only imagine John Brown toasting Gilmore for that TD in Foxboro last year?

Guess the Stats guys believe McCourty the S was held responsible on deep route 

[MJS]

9 minutes ago, ChevyVanMiller said:

"Signature stat: White had 84 targets without allowing a touchdown when he was targeted as the nearest defender in coverage. Only Stephon Gilmore had more targets (96) without allowing a TD, per NFL Next Gen Stats."

 

Did I only imagine John Brown toasting Gilmore for that TD in Foxboro last year?

It was so bad for him that they counted it against the safety.

[IgotBILLStopay]

2 minutes ago, King Allen of New York said:

Well, technically yes - but, Gilmore wasn't the closest defender in coverage for that TD.  The closest defender for that long TD was McCourty.

So John Brown beat Gilmore so badly - the latter was not even the nearest defender:)

[ChevyVanMiller]

Man, not crediting that against Gilmore is criminal. He had man-to-man and he's still looking for his jockstrap.

 

 

[IgotBILLStopay]

There was some debate on who was at fault - but here it is from Gilmore himself - they were in MAN Coverage!

 

https://twitter.com/NickBSharp/status/1208816570287284224/photo/1

 

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

As the rules keep changing towards college rules which is all out scoring I feel that the CB position will be devalued. Soon it will almost be impossible for a man or zone CB to stop someone like Brown, Ruggs or any of the top 40 WR’s. We are already seeing a huge increase in nickel and dime defense. Having 3 solid CB’s and 2 good FS’s In the Nickel will soon be the base defense in the NFL. 

[Royale with Cheese]

14 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

As the rules keep changing towards college rules which is all out scoring I feel that the CB position will be devalued. Soon it will almost be impossible for a man or zone CB to stop someone like Brown, Ruggs or any of the top 40 WR’s. We are already seeing a huge increase in nickel and dime defense. Having 3 solid CB’s and 2 good FS’s In the Nickel will soon be the base defense in the NFL. 

 

Not happening.  The CB position will be more valued as teams pass more.  It's the second most important position on defense behind a pass rusher and some will argue it's actually the most important.  

 

It will never be impossible to cover the top 40 WR's.  The way you're talking, the NFL average point per game is going to be like 50 ppg.

[IgotBILLStopay]

36 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

As the rules keep changing towards college rules which is all out scoring I feel that the CB position will be devalued. Soon it will almost be impossible for a man or zone CB to stop someone like Brown, Ruggs or any of the top 40 WR’s. We are already seeing a huge increase in nickel and dime defense. Having 3 solid CB’s and 2 good FS’s In the Nickel will soon be the base defense in the NFL. 

This is no doubt the trend. But there is some value to bucking the trend as well. For example, Seattle had success for years with just having a single safety Earl Thomas patrolling the deep. Just last year, the Pats had the #1 rated defense last year with Cover 0 - they left the entire deep back open and challenged QBs to beat them by throwing deep and had a lot of success. 

 

That is the beauty of football - offenses and defenses each have to pick their poison - go heavy on one dimension and you are liable to get beaten on the other side. This is a constantly evolving chess game. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

48 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

As the rules keep changing towards college rules which is all out scoring I feel that the CB position will be devalued. Soon it will almost be impossible for a man or zone CB to stop someone like Brown, Ruggs or any of the top 40 WR’s. We are already seeing a huge increase in nickel and dime defense. Having 3 solid CB’s and 2 good FS’s In the Nickel will soon be the base defense in the NFL. 

 

Yes and no... there were also 4 2000 yard rushers in college last year.  There were also 4 teams that allowed fewer than 14 points per game.  

 

I think Air-raid style, no-huddle offices have a place.  But in the NFL the LBs are bigger and faster.  The corners are faster.  Those boundary zone read rushes tend to get stuffed a lot more.  You're less likely to have the same separation you get in college where it seems like QBs are just throwing to wide open receivers - passes get broken up.  Pressure gets there faster.  Tacklings so much better.  Players are smarter.  It's a different game in the NFL.

12 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

This is no doubt the trend. But there is some value to bucking the trend as well. For example, Seattle had success for years with just having a single safety Earl Thomas patrolling the deep. Just last year, the Pats had the #1 rated defense last year with Cover 0 - they left the entire deep back open and challenged QBs to beat them by throwing deep and had a lot of success. 

 

That is the beauty of football - offenses and defenses each have to pick their poison - go heavy on one dimension and you are liable to get beaten on the other side. This is a constantly evolving chess game. 

 

Yeah - those pass-first short passing offenses struggle with tight man coverage.  You're forced to adjust from what you're good at - QBs have to make quick decisions.

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

As the rules keep changing towards college rules which is all out scoring I feel that the CB position will be devalued. Soon it will almost be impossible for a man or zone CB to stop someone like Brown, Ruggs or any of the top 40 WR’s. We are already seeing a huge increase in nickel and dime defense. Having 3 solid CB’s and 2 good FS’s In the Nickel will soon be the base defense in the NFL. 

 

Good prediction - just a few years too late.  

 

The Nickel became the base defense in the NFL back in 2011.    That was the first year that defenses had 5 (or more) DBs in coverage on more than half the snaps.

 

These days teams have 5 (or more) DBs on 2 out of 3 plays - more or less.  

 

It seems to me - in this pass happy league - CBs are more important than ever.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/heres-why-the-nickel-defense-is-the-new-base-defense-in-the-nfl/

Edited September 1, 2020 by hondo in seattle

[hondo in seattle]

2 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Two Bills on here....

#26 and #79.  It's not Cody Ford or Harrison Phillips if you guys are wondering.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29766900/nfl-rank-predicting-best-100-players-2020-nfl-season

 

Given that those 100 spots are divided up by 32 teams, you'd expect the Bills to have at least 3 or 4 players ranked.  I'm not sure ESPN gives us enough credit.  

[IgotBILLStopay]

4 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Given that those 100 spots are divided up by 32 teams, you'd expect the Bills to have at least 3 or 4 players ranked.  I'm not sure ESPN gives us enough credit.  

 

I dont have too much beef with ESPN on just having 2 players up there. The key point is that the way the roster has been constructed, Bills will be disproportionately represented higher in the next 100. Our depth in  terms of good, but not great players will be our calling card. Dawkins, Hughes, Milano, Morse, Brown, Hyde, Poyer and Beasley will likely never crack the list but will be perennially in the next 100 list.

 

That being said, if all goes to plan, Allen, Edmunds, Singletary, Oliver and maybe, even Knox, should be joining White and Diggs in the 2021 list.

[hondo in seattle]

13 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

 

I dont have too much beef with ESPN on just having 2 players up there. The key point is that the way the roster has been constructed, Bills will be disproportionately represented higher in the next 100. Our depth in  terms of good, but not great players will be our calling card. Dawkins, Hughes, Milano, Morse, Brown, Hyde, Poyer and Beasley will likely never crack the list but will be perennially in the next 100 list.

 

That being said, if all goes to plan, Allen, Edmunds, Singletary, Oliver and maybe, even Knox, should be joining White and Diggs in the 2021 list.

 

Good point.  After I posted, I started thinking who else on the Bills belonged in the top 100 and while you could make a case for Edmunds, there really wasn't anyone who was a slam-dunk choice.  

 

What Beane and McD have created is a team with a lot of good players but few real superstars.   I'm sure they're drafting for superstars but in free agency, Beane is more interested in the affordable solid starter and strong backup than he is in the overpriced Pro Bowler.  

 

Development of our younger draftees and a playoff run this year (fingers crossed) will put more Bills on the ESPN radar.  

Edited September 1, 2020 by hondo in seattle

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

I guess on average you expect each team to have 3 guys... then you have teams with multiple superstars.

 

i am curious which wrs they list ahead of Diggs.  

 

 The stat line I most like for him.... #2in the nfl in 2019 yards per target....

 

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Given that those 100 spots are divided up by 32 teams, you'd expect the Bills to have at least 3 or 4 players ranked.  I'm not sure ESPN gives us enough credit.  

ESPN has never favored Buffalo. Who cares. Edmunds and Allen will join that list next year.

[IgotBILLStopay]

9 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

I guess on average you expect each team to have 3 guys... then you have teams with multiple superstars.

 

i am curious which wrs they list ahead of Diggs.  

 

 The stat line I most like for him.... #2in the nfl in 2019 yards per target....

 

Since you asked - Thomas, Hopkins, Hill, Jones, Evans, Adams, Beckham, Godwin, Allen, Golladay were ranked higher - so he came in #11. Thielen, AJ Brown and Ju-Ju were the next three. He had a legitimate case to be ranked as high as #7 ahead of Beckham, Godwin, Allen and Golladay - but could also have been ranked after the next three at #14.

 

The stat cited in the article is

 

Quote

Diggs' plus-10.7% catch percentage above expectation in 2019 was third best in the NFL, per NFL Next Gen Stats (minimum 50 targets).

 

[Kirby Jackson]

5 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Since you asked - Thomas, Hopkins, Hill, Jones, Evans, Adams, Beckham, Godwin, Allen, Golladay were ranked higher - so he came in #11. Thielen, AJ Brown and Ju-Ju were the next three. He had a legitimate case to be ranked as high as #7 ahead of Beckham, Godwin, Allen and Golladay - but could also have been ranked after the next three at #14.

 

The stat cited in the article is

 

 

Ju-ju being on the list is kind of gross. As soon as AB left he disappeared. We will see this year I guess but he’s not one of the top 100 players in football today.

[IgotBILLStopay]

Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

Ju-ju being on the list is kind of gross. As soon as AB left he disappeared. We will see this year I guess but he’s not one of the top 100 players in football today.

Yes he did not do well in 2019 - but most observers appear to attribute it to not having Big Ben throwing to him rather than the absence of AB.

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Yes he did not do well in 2019 - but most observers appear to attribute it to not having Big Ben throwing to him rather than the absence of AB.

I 100% believe it is more AB than Ben. Deandre Hopkins dominated before Deshaun. Gordon has 1,600 yards with Weeden, Campbell and Hoyer. Great receivers dominate regardless of who is throwing the ball. They get the ball in their hands and make plays. I know that the Pittsburgh QB situation wasn’t good but Ju-ju was MIA. He’s not a top 100 player today. He needs to earn his way back onto that list. 
 

There were other receivers in there too between Diggs and the end of the list (Kupp and Lockett). Also, Bowen votes Edmunds as the “player not on the list this year but is a lock next year.”

[machine gun kelly]

It’s sad Hyde and Poyer are not on there as they are punished not for the best safeties, but maybe outside of MN, the best tandem in the NFL.  After this year, I’m betting at a minimum Edmunds will be on there and one of the RB’s.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

49 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Since you asked - Thomas, Hopkins, Hill, Jones, Evans, Adams, Beckham, Godwin, Allen, Golladay were ranked higher - so he came in #11. Thielen, AJ Brown and Ju-Ju were the next three. He had a legitimate case to be ranked as high as #7 ahead of Beckham, Godwin, Allen and Golladay - but could also have been ranked after the next three at #14.

 

The stat cited in the article is

 

 

 

Seems fair. I think of him in top 10 ish territory... 

 

thanks for the intel

Edited September 1, 2020 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

There was some debate on who was at fault - but here it is from Gilmore himself - they were in MAN Coverage!

 

https://twitter.com/NickBSharp/status/1208816570287284224/photo/1

 

 

Yep there were plenty of plays his last year here that fans blamed Gilmore for that were actually the safeties. But that one was on Gilmore and he owned it.

39 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I 100% believe it is more AB than Ben. Deandre Hopkins dominated before Deshaun. Gordon has 1,600 yards with Weeden, Campbell and Hoyer. Great receivers dominate regardless of who is throwing the ball. They get the ball in their hands and make plays. I know that the Pittsburgh QB situation wasn’t good but Ju-ju was MIA. He’s not a top 100 player today. He needs to earn his way back onto that list. 
 

There were other receivers in there too between Diggs and the end of the list (Kupp and Lockett). Also, Bowen votes Edmunds as the “player not on the list this year but is a lock next year.”

 

AB was the best receiver in football. When teams are committing 3 men to him I reckon I could play opposite and rack up a few catches.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep there were plenty of plays his last year here that fans blamed Gilmore for that were actually the safeties. But that one was on Gilmore and he owned it.

 

AB was the best receiver in football. When teams are committing 3 men to him I reckon I could play opposite and rack up a few catches.

Antonio Brown is a total whack job but there was a period of time where I thought he was the best player in football. He was completely unstoppable despite a ridiculous amount of attention. There was a 6 year span where he AVERAGED 114 catches, 1,524 yards and 11 TDs!!! He missed some games and put up those numbers!! That’s the greatest stretch a WR has ever had.

Edited September 1, 2020 by Kirby Jackson

[Stank_Nasty]

22 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Antonio Brown is a total whack job but there was a period of time where I thought he was the best player in football. He was completely unstoppable despite a ridiculous amount of attention. There was a 6 year span where he AVERAGED 114 catches, 1,524 yards and 11 TDs!!! He missed some games and put up those numbers!! That’s the greatest stretch a WR has ever had.

Complete maniac but i feel like that stretch is a very underappreciated stretch of pure dominance. His level of production with the attention he received from D's truly was astounding.

Edited September 1, 2020 by Stank_Nasty

[purple haze]

8 hours ago, King Allen of New York said:

Well, technically yes - but, Gilmore wasn't the closest defender in coverage for that TD.  The closest defender for that long TD was McCourty.

True.  Because Gilmore got cooked.  McCourty has to take Smoke.  He was Gilmore’s man.

[corta765]

The problem with these lists is it is a bit of a popularity contest not as much geared to reality. JJ Watt is listed as the 39th best player for example yet he has played one full season in four years and miss half of last year. If JJ is fully healthy sure maybe he is that good, BUT he is 31 coming off of years worth of injuries. I think he is a Top 100 guy but not that high. Also look at some of the teams listed and its your NFL media darlings PIT, GB, DAL, etc... Tremaine Edmunds is certainly worth of being Top 100 but gets overlooked because of market. The fact Hyde at least or Poyer is not on there kinda shows the same thing especially since around the league they are considered a Top 5 safety duo.

 

In the future I could see Edmunds, Dawkins, Hyde, Allen, and Oliver crack the list (not all at once) if the team keeps winning.

On 9/1/2020 at 1:07 PM, Kirby Jackson said:

Ju-ju being on the list is kind of gross. As soon as AB left he disappeared. We will see this year I guess but he’s not one of the top 100 players in football today.

 

I just posted that being on an NFL media darling team PIT gets you on these lists. No way he is Top 100 and truthfully the hype for PIT's offense is funny. I think they will be decent and not bad like they where with Ben out, but he is an older QB and the weapons are not what they were. The defense is more the strong point now.

[Beast]

Dak Prescott is so freaking overated.