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Phil The Thrill

CBS Sports Calculates the Bills Projected Win Total in 2020

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I thought this was an interesting article.  CBS Sportsline provides projections for NFL teams after the first wave of free agency.

 

Trying to predict in April is meaningless considering that the draft hasn’t happened yet.  Still it’s a fun article and the Bills come out pretty strong.  
 

https://www.sportsline.com/insiders/computer-updates-bills-projected-win-total/
 

“The SportsLine Projection Model simulated the 2020 NFL schedule 10,000 times and the Bills win an average of 9.9 games in those simulations and make the postseason 77.7 percent of the time while winning the AFC East 54.3 percent of the time. That is a small jump from the 9.6 projected wins the model predicted prior to the start of free agency. Meanwhile, William Hill Sportsbook currently lists the Bills at 20-1 to win the 2021 Super Bowl, which is tied for ninth-best odds in the NFL.”

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Fair.  When was the last time we were considered the favorites to win the AFCE and a better than average odds for the Super Bowl?

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This is probably a bad sign as these “experts” never get the Bills right..

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5 minutes ago, 1ManRaid said:

Fair.  When was the last time we were considered the favorites to win the AFCE and a better than average odds for the Super Bowl?


It’s been 25 years

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2 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

This is probably a bad sign as these “experts” never get the Bills right..

So the Bills will overperform again?  Isn't that the trend vs the usual predictions?

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Just now, 1ManRaid said:

So the Bills will overperform again?  Isn't that the trend vs the usual predictions?


I would happily take the predicted 10 wins now with the travel and schedule in 2020..

 

 

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What was their prediction last year? I always like to see how these models performed previously before giving them any credence. Models are only as good as their inputs.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, MJS said:

What was their prediction last year? I always like to see how these models performed previously before giving them any credence. Models are only as good as their inputs.

 

Oops -- sorry this was not the computer model -- this is just some guy (John Breech) at CBS making predictions.

 

Deleted

 

Edited by Billy Claude

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10 wins was my guess and a dog fight with New England for the AFCE.  I know the Pats look vulnerable but as Beane said, you can’t count out BB.  I’m not getting ahead of myself on the SB even to attend yet.  Let’s win a playoff game first as you can imagine, KC, the Ravens, and maybe TN will duke it out.  Lastly, I doubt it, but I don’t count out Reich with knowing how to get the most out of Rivers and a solid O Line, something he’s never had.  After the draft, we’ll see.  The Colts still have lots of money for who is still standing with musical chairs.  Clowney in Indy or Ngokue?  Stranger things have happened.

 

since our lives are up in the air, this provides at least some distraction.

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Yeah, 9.9 is fair. I think the total is 11, with 12 not out of the question. If we get to 11, for the first time in a decade the AFC East crown will not reside in NE.

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6 hours ago, GreggTX said:

10 wins with our schedule is pretty good.

 

Yep. 10 wins would not mean a levelling out. On this schedule it would mean significant progress. 

 

To have a chance of 10 wins I think they need to go 5-1 in division. Playing .500 football against the AFCW and the NFCW plus Tennessee and Pittsburgh is gonna be easier said than done. 

 

I am right between 9 and 10 wins and I think 10 would be enough to win the division. 

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The real question is whether the actual season will be played out as a computer simulation! Ugh!

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6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. 10 wins would not mean a levelling out. On this schedule it would mean significant progress. 

 

To have a chance of 10 wins I think they need to go 5-1 in division. Playing .500 football against the AFCW and the NFCW plus Tennessee and Pittsburgh is gonna be easier said than done. 

 

I am right between 9 and 10 wins and I think 10 would be enough to win the division. 

Exactly how I feel, except I think 9 wins MAY even win the division this year. The entire AFC East has it tough when it comes to the schedule. I think that the Bills can win the division by default to a certain extent. Miami is better but not good (although they have world’s of draft capital), the Jets are a mess and New England isn’t good (they aren’t). I’m not sure another AFC East team gets to 8 wins. Miami could win 8 as their crossover games are Cincinnati and Jacksonville. Other than that I just don’t see it. 

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it's all on allen and improving.  if he fixes that deep ball this team is over double digit wins

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Exactly how I feel, except I think 9 wins MAY even win the division this year. The entire AFC East has it tough when it comes to the schedule. I think that the Bills can win the division by default to a certain extent. Miami is better but not good (although they have world’s of draft capital), the Jets are a mess and New England isn’t good (they aren’t). I’m not sure another AFC East team gets to 8 wins. Miami could win 8 as their crossover games are Cincinnati and Jacksonville. Other than that I just don’t see it. 

 

I agree 9 might. My route to another team getting to 9 is New England Quarterbacked by Dalton. Which just makes too much sense in my head not to happen! As presently constituted I don't think any of the other three are 9 win teams.  

Edited by GunnerBill

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