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Trade back into the first


whorlnut

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7 hours ago, whorlnut said:

I was talking to another poster about this idea last night and I could see this as something Beane might be willing to do. 
 

With the way this team is built and the AFC East finally appearing to be up for grabs, Beane might view this roster being a few players away to win now. Here’s my idea...what if we took the top DE or OT on the board at 22 and trade next year’s first and one of the extra 5ths this year to get back in the bottom of round 1?  At that point, we could take either DE or OT (whichever we didn’t address at 22) or WR (whichever one starts to fall). We would then still have our original picks minus the extra 5th. 
 

Beane can realistically look at this team as being highly competitive next year and having a low first anyways. It’s not like we should be giving up a top half of the draft first rounder.  We could get two guys this year who we can control for 5 years at positions of need. 
 

 

Next year’s 1st and a 5th this year won’t be enough get you back into the end of round 1.

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6 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I never like the idea of next year’s first. Things change quickly in the NFL. God forbid an injury to Josh and you might be dealing a top 5 pick a year from now for a swing at a WR that you may be able to get 20 picks after. I’m okay moving up for one of the top 3 WRs if the cost is right (2nd and a late pick). I’m not for trading next year’s 1st.

KJ, at 22, I wouldn't necessarily be loath to trading out of round 1, IF the Bills feel as if all of the top WRs are gone. However, the deal would HAVE to include a 2021 first round pick, hopefully from a not so great team.

You see, this is where great leadership enters in, something we as fans crave and are not really used to having.

This draft appears to be a great one. My wish is for a great receiver. Let's hope!

GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

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4 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

KJ, at 22, I wouldn't necessarily be loath to trading out of round 1, IF the Bills feel as if all of the top WRs are gone. However, the deal would HAVE to include a 2021 first round pick, hopefully from a not so great team.

You see, this is where great leadership enters in, something we as fans crave and are not really used to having.

This draft appears to be a great one. My wish is for a great receiver. Let's hope!

GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

I’m in the same boat as you Bill. The Bills NEED some guys that win because they’re better. They need some guys that keep D coordinators up at night. There are a few in this draft and some that will come out of nowhere and be great. If the Bills add “the” guy instead of “a” guy they have a chance to win it all. 

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3 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

We can try. There’s certainly a reasonable fear that guy won’t make it to 22. There’s also a reasonable fear we could trade up for the wrong guy. Or stand pat and take the wrong guy.

 

It’s the draft. That’s how it goes.


If he’s gone at 22 he won’t be there at 30

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10 hours ago, Logic said:

I'd honestly rather see them trade DOWN in the 1st round, possibly even out of the 1st round altogether.

It seems like the Seahawks -- and other teams that routinely pick in the 20s -- do this a lot. Trade down a few times, even out of the 1st round completely, and accumulate extra 2nd and 3rd round picks. 

The thing is, oftentimes in the draft there are only 15-20 prospects that teams grade as legitimate 1st round value. If that's the case, there's not much difference between having pick 22 and pick 35, other than the fifth year option on contracts.

If the Bills could trade down twice and accumulate an extra 2nd and a couple 3rd round picks, I'd rather do that.

Two 2nds
Three 3rds

They could then use their later round picks and the above mentioned picks to move around and select players they target in the 2nd through 4th rounds. That, to me, is where the value of this draft lies.

 

NO! We need quality, not quantity and we need them at the skill positions. Hopefully the Bills will address them in Free Agency and the draft! GO BILLS!!!

9 hours ago, NoSaint said:

We have a lot of depth. We need a few superstars.

AGREED!!!!!!!

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10 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Please don’t trade up in the 1st round for a WR in a draft supposedly full of WR talent.  Seems like 2nd round has been the higher hit rate for WR anyway.  Go BPA at 22, and then I’d be fine moving up in the 2nd round for a WR if BPA isn’t a WR at 22.  

I agree with not trading up unless it is Ruggs or Lamb and it isnt going up too far. I am not OK with BPA if its not an area of need. I don't want some guard or MLB or S just because he is BPA. This year should be BPA in a position of need! 

Edited by Locomark
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10 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Please don’t trade up in the 1st round for a WR in a draft supposedly full of WR talent.  Seems like 2nd round has been the higher hit rate for WR anyway.  Go BPA at 22, and then I’d be fine moving up in the 2nd round for a WR if BPA isn’t a WR at 22.  

If you're going to trade up this year it shouldn't be for a WR; it should be for an OT or edge rusher.  Of course none of this matters at this point since free agency controls the direction of the cart.

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11 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

100% agree. If the somebody slips that they covet, I don’t care about perceived “value”. We aren’t bargain shopping here. Push all you chips to the middle of the table and put the team over the top. 

I would agree except for 1 thing...the draft is always a crapshoot...I wouldn’t want to mortgage the future on those low odds...

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5 hours ago, whorlnut said:

Ok...can we get past that?  It’s been beaten like a rental mule throughout this thread. Haha

Ok. So are we now at a point where we’re talking about a reasonable trade up to the tail end of the first round if a quality player at a position of need falls there?  I doubt you’ll get much pushback for that. 

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6 hours ago, whorlnut said:

Ok...can we get past that?  It’s been beaten like a rental mule throughout this thread. Haha

 

I’m just praying I don’t come back in my next life as a rented mule......that’s what I’m taking out of this! 

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23 hours ago, whorlnut said:

Skins did it last year to go up and get Sweat. Giants came up to get a corner. And the Falcons moved back into the bottom to get Kaleb McGary. Teams do it all the time when they feel they need to make a move for a guy that starts falling...

I agree, teams do it.   And it's also true Beane does it.   We've seen plenty of dealing of picks to get a guy they want.    

 

Although I disagreed about the original post, as I think about it, it's maybe more likely than people think.   Beane has been very clear about what he does.   When their pick is approaching, starting with maybe being 15 picks away, they're watching particular guys.   When a guy who is the top pick left on their board is sitting there 10 or 15 picks away, they start looking for a possible trade partner, to move up five or six or eight picks to grab the guy if he gets that far.   That's what they did to get Edmunds and they did it to get Ford.    Beane has said that he will do that when (1) the guy is at the top of his board and in their opinion is a great value , whoever gets him and (2) it's a position of need.   He's not going up like that for anyone but a position of need.   

 

However, he seems to want always to have a full complement of picks in the draft.   He wants at least 7 picks, and he wants one a round.   In the past two years, I don't think we've seen him trade future picks if it would leave him in the hole.   He'd trade one of two third rounders, or something like that.   So I don't see Beane being quick to trade a 2021 first round pick to move up.    

 

Beane doesn't have a lot of positions of need.   I know, they need a receiver, and they'll get some help, but going into the season with last season's receivers isn't a disaster.   He wants an offensive lineman, but he isn't id deep trouble if he doesn't get one.   Edge rusher is maybe he only big position of need.   But if that's Beane's target, Beane will take him with his own pick instead of trying to trade back into the first round.   He just doesn't any particular position like he did last season at DT and offensive line, or the year before at QB or MLB.   Those were really important positions to fill just to get competitive.    

 

I like that Beane is an active thinker about this stuff, and that he isn't afraid to pull the trigger.   He develops supreme confidence in their evaluation of the players, and when he sees what his system tells him is great value, he goes after the guy.   Allen, Edmunds, Ford all are in Buffalo because Beane was willing to deal.  

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17 hours ago, Mountain Man said:

No they didn't. They traded from late in the 1st to mid 1st. They were already in the 1st round. 

Ya that’s already been corrected but still doesn’t change the op saying trade next years first for one this year and I was replying to a comment on how mr weo acted like that never happens and it has 

 

Saints trade was worse then what the op was suggesting 

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On 2/29/2020 at 3:09 PM, thebandit27 said:


If Ruggs is there at 22 you try to beat his 40 time to the podium 

You sir, win the prize for best post of the day. Could not have said it any better. He is my dream pick, the guy who would give us our Tyreek Hill that gives DCs nightmares preparing for.

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On 2/29/2020 at 10:32 AM, mikemac2001 said:


They do this all the time. Why does this seem like such a crazy idea to you?
 

It would either cost our 2nd and something or a first next year and something 

That’s true.  And, to agree with your original thought I would prefer next years first vs this years second.

 

That scenario would get us a DE, WR and another player at either CB, LB or OLine.

 

I read the OPs thoughts with an open mind and this is a potential option with the first two rounds of this draft stacked with positions we need with lots of potential and strong grades.  Grades at positions that should be valued as important building blocks and McBean value as well.

 

Moving back into the 2nd could accomplish a similar return.

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