McShay - Bills pass on WR and take RB Swift in 1st.

[Phil The Thrill]

11 hours ago, PIZ said:

If they can get a WR in FA and maybe one in Round 2, I would be OK with this. The Bills need an explosive RB.

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2020/02/04/espn-todd-mcshay-buffalo-bills-dandre-swift/?fbclid=IwAR0AhXP1cCG0x6JE5RHQCfVK1SSwaQeY-G7ey3_dXlXbiAOx2ZTzlXCny7o

Dumb... if they pass on a WR it won’t be for a RB.  They’ll go DE

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Right. We need dudes that opposing DCs worry about.

 

Right now, we’ve got one: the QB.

 

That’s it.

 

 

 

Yeah but you don't want to fall in love with the ankle breaking potential of a Roscoe Parrish and pass on a Vincent Jackson.   

 

 

[Mat68]

4 hours ago, brianthomas said:

Hey you said "run like SF" so i just made the point that you dont need a 1st rd back to have success, because they havent needed one.

But you're right here, most of the top 10 rushers in the league are 1st rd picks for sure. But if u go out to top 15 the numbers change as 7 of those are not. However.

 

More important imo than top rushers are the top rushing teams. It does no good if you have Nick Chubb but still finish 6-10.

Out of the top 10 rushing teams, how many of those have a 1st rd back leading the way? It's 2.

2 teams out of 10. Tennessee & Dallas (Im not counting Baltimore because of Lamar). So once again that shows you don't need a 1st rd back to have success running the ball. As a matter of fact it kinda shows the inverse, that you're more successful without one. As long as you build your offense in other areas. Oline, TEs, WR's etc.

 

At this point would i hate us getting one? No not really. But it seems like a luxury pick where we have so many other areas to improve that would serve us better as a whole (as a team), since wins matter most & not personal stats. And as i just showed, you don't necessarily need a 1st rd back to be one of the top rushing teams in the league. As the top rushing teams dont even have one. Now you can hangup

SF paid massive deals to 2 Rbs.  Mckinnion couldnt stay healthy and paid Coleman 40 mil.  Buffalo has a bag of cash.  Singeltary is very good, imo though he is limited to 15 to 20 touches.  Another guy in the backfield is needed.  Whether it be FA or draft its happening.  I could see Swift, now with the caveat the more premier positions are gone ie OT, De.  I know Wr will be the wanted pick.  At that point it comes down to BPA a RB could be that.

[thebandit27]

23 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

Yeah but you don't want to fall in love with the ankle breaking potential of a Roscoe Parrish and pass on a Vincent Jackson.   

 

 

No doubt. Gotta get the right ones.

[SydneyBillsFan]

If there is one thing I am confident about, it is that when it comes to draft picks - Beane does not waste them.

 

I dont know if we will take a DE, WR, LB or RB.....but I am sure that we will get a very good player at 22, irrespective of the position.

[atlbillsfan1975]

1 hour ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Don’t worry.  They won’t.

Wallace is more than solid.

I don’t agree. He was ok , very bad, and then good.

Edited February 5, 2020 by atlbillsfan1975

[PIZ]

 

[BADOLBILZ]

9 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

No doubt. Gotta get the right ones.

 

 

Donahoe got caught up chasing "playmakers"..........used a first on McGahee who was considered a much bigger HR threat than Travis Henry..........and went with Parrish because they wanted a different type of WR than they had.   Basically screwed up 2 drafts........which came back to haunt them in a couple years.

 

Swift would be a McGahee-esque pick.  Yeah McGahee sat out a season and Swift would play as a rookie.........but relatively speaking that draft had a lot less playmaking talent available than this one.

 

And I worry about getting more small targets for Allen............who almost instinctively started throwing the ball to big target Duke Williams when he was activated.

 

You mentioned KJ Hamler in another thread..........exciting player..........but does Allen have the ball placement and confidence to take full advantage of small targets like Hamler or even the host of 5'11 types like Ruggs and Reagor etc..

 

This is a fun WR draft but after Jeudy and Lamb you start making traditional "choices" between smaller, quick/fast talents and bigger and less "quick-starting" talents.    They gotta' choose right.   Hopefully the combine and private workouts help identify the right fits.

[ALF]

I like Swift but not the Bill's 1st rd for a RB.  I want a OL  first.

[Thurman#1]

13 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Right. We need dudes that opposing DCs worry about.

 

Right now, we’ve got one: the QB.

 

That’s it.

 

 

Teams worry about Singletary, and about Brown as well. If Allen had hit ... say three of those five or six long bombs on which Brown was open long but overthrown, teams would have started to seriously back up the safety on his side.

 

Agreed, though, that they need both another WR and another RB. I personally would expect them to target an RB who's a style contrast to Singletary, a hammer to Devin's sting like a bee.

Edited February 5, 2020 by Thurman#1

[thebandit27]

43 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Teams worry about Singletary, and about Brown as well. If Allen had hit ... say three of those five or six long bombs on which Brown was open long but overthrown, teams would have started to seriously back up the safety on his side.

 

Agreed, though, that they need both another WR and another RB. I personally would expect them to target an RB who's a style contrast to Singletary, a hammer to Devin's sting like a bee.

Teams do not worry about Singletary...he faced the fewest 8+ man boxes in the entire NFL (that’s probably part of the reason that his YPC was so high).

 

Brown doesn’t draw a double. There’s not a single time that I can recall where he’s faced one (nor can I find a reliable stat source to cite for that unfortunately).

 

Personally, I want a game-breaker at RB. A guy that is a threat to score every time he touches the ball.

8 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Donahoe got caught up chasing "playmakers"..........used a first on McGahee who was considered a much bigger HR threat than Travis Henry..........and went with Parrish because they wanted a different type of WR than they had.   Basically screwed up 2 drafts........which came back to haunt them in a couple years.

 

Swift would be a McGahee-esque pick.  Yeah McGahee sat out a season and Swift would play as a rookie.........but relatively speaking that draft had a lot less playmaking talent available than this one.

 

And I worry about getting more small targets for Allen............who almost instinctively started throwing the ball to big target Duke Williams when he was activated.

 

You mentioned KJ Hamler in another thread..........exciting player..........but does Allen have the ball placement and confidence to take full advantage of small targets like Hamler or even the host of 5'11 types like Ruggs and Reagor etc..

 

This is a fun WR draft but after Jeudy and Lamb you start making traditional "choices" between smaller, quick/fast talents and bigger and less "quick-starting" talents.    They gotta' choose right.   Hopefully the combine and private workouts help identify the right fits.

I hear you. I wouldn’t chase a RB in round 1; actually I wouldn’t chase any position per se.

 

The only thing I’ll say about player archetype is that I’ll always lean toward a guy that’s too darn fast to cover—in this case I’m thinking of Ruggs. Hamler is a guy that I think may fit that mold as well, but I’d like to see what his drills have to say about his relative SAQ.

[DCOrange]

Just say no to first round RBs, especially when we have a starting RB already. 

[Hardhatharry]

12 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Just say no to first round RBs, especially when we have a starting RB already. 

/end thread

[colin]

meh, goes against the grain but if the front office think this guy is like saquon or something then you draft him in the early 20s.

 

the whole thing w rbs is that running isn't as big as it once was, and the relative value of one back vs another is lower.

 

i'd not be bothered by this if we got WR and DE in free agency

[thebandit27]

21 minutes ago, Hardhatharry said:

/end thread

Except that the leading rusher from last year’s Super Bowl was a 1st round pick. And the team they beat had a RB that was a first round pick.

 

I’m not saying that teams should be in a hurry to spend a 1st on a RB, but slamming the door on it altogether is misguided. If you’re a team that’s on the brink of a Super Bowl run, and you believe that a particular RB can out you over the top (as clearly the Pats****** did with Sony), then yeah, take him.

5 minutes ago, colin said:

meh, goes against the grain but if the front office think this guy is like saquon or something then you draft him in the early 20s.

 

the whole thing w rbs is that running isn't as big as it once was, and the relative value of one back vs another is lower.

 

i'd not be bothered by this if we got WR and DE in free agency

Are you sure that running isn’t as big? The Ravens just ran for 3,300 yards in a season! The 9ers dominated the NFC with a run game that let the QB get away with throwing 8 passes in the NFCCG!

 

Last year, the Pats****** let go of their pass-blocking LT and 2 of their top 3 WRs and signed 2 FA RBs, drafted a run-blocking LT and a RB in round 1, and traded for another run-blocking OT and won a Super Bowl by running right at people.

 

The run game is alive and well my friend!

[Teddy KGB]

22 hours ago, aristocrat said:

you want an offense like san fran's where we just run it down people's throats all year?  get another big time rb.  btw they catch passes too. you can get a wr in the second round as well. 

sf drafted zero rb’s in the first round, ??

[aristocrat]

23 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

sf drafted zero rb’s in the first round, ??

 

so you literally want to only take a rb in the 3rd an find an undrafted guy to lead your rb group?  is that the only formula to finding rbs?

[Teddy KGB]

7 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

 

so you literally want to only take a rb in the 3rd an find an undrafted guy to lead your rb group?  is that the only formula to finding rbs?

seems to work well for SF 

[aristocrat]

Just now, Teddy KGB said:

seems to work well for SF 

 

so you're saying that going forward that will work every single time? 

[thebandit27]

4 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

seems to work well for SF 

SF put a lot of irons into the RB fire. They signed Mostert as a street FA, but they also gave solid FA money to both McKinnon and Coleman. That’s aside from bringing in Breida and JWJ as UDFAs. They cast a wide net for sure.

[Trogdor]

23 hours ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

While not just in Round 1, but *this* is how the Bills found themselves in horrible situations year after year. They'd focus on how to upgrade their team via Draft crossing their fingers the ideal player fell to them. But Beane has demonstrated and reinforced it in an interview, that he fills the needs via Free Agency and then uses the Draft to go BPA (for the most part...I don't think anyone does it as strictly as some project). IMHO, that's one reason why this team has gotten better with the roster overhaul as quickly as it has. He knew OL was a big problem, so he went and spent money on 4 new OL starters and some depth. Then he Drafted one for posterity and to get him to grow so they can focus on other areas in future years. I'd say WR / RB / DE / LB and CB all look about the same in terms of how he approaches it, again IMHO. 

 

I'm not saying I'm for or against a RB in the first round because for me, and I said this last year, Beane et. al. have shown very good decision making when it comes to FA and Draft...overall. Kelvin Lazy-A** Benjamin notwithstanding (which was a trade, I know). I trust Beane and what a secure and warm feeling to truly believe in the competency of the Front Office and Scouts and to see most if not everyone in their positions remaining with the team. Consistency and demonstrated excellence - what a breath of fresh air.

Lee Smith, Murphy, Star, Gore, Boldin, the Darby trade...I just don't see what you're seeing. I think that he has been pretty good in the draft, but even that is a ways off from being a sure thing.

[Trogdor]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

SF put a lot of irons into the RB fire. They signed Mostert as a street FA, but they also gave solid FA money to both McKinnon and Coleman. That’s aside from bringing in Breida and JWJ as UDFAs. They cast a wide net for sure.

Every year we see nobodies shine behind great lines. Upgrade the line and sign whoever. If he isn't Christian McCaffrey, don't waste the pick.

[SoTier]

On 2/4/2020 at 9:23 AM, PIZ said:

If they can get a WR in FA and maybe one in Round 2, I would be OK with this. The Bills need an explosive RB.

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2020/02/04/espn-todd-mcshay-buffalo-bills-dandre-swift/?fbclid=IwAR0AhXP1cCG0x6JE5RHQCfVK1SSwaQeY-G7ey3_dXlXbiAOx2ZTzlXCny7o

 

I think that it depends upon what happens in FA and in the draft.  They need another solid veteran WR next year, so going after one in FA makes sense.  Since this is a deep WR draft, there should be very good prospects available in Round 2 although they might be a season or a season and a half to develop.   

 

It's also possible that the WR that the Bills really like is gone by #22.   I don't want to see them trade up to take a WR because they are going to have to start to pay some of their own homegrown players if they are serious about becoming an NFL power, so they need to replenish their roster with youngsters on rookie contracts.

 

Having one good RB isn't enough for a playoff contending team.  The Bills offense suffered in 2019, especially later in the year, because neither Gore nor Yeldon were good enough.   Except for a great OL, a good/great running game is a QB's best friend.   If Swift is a better prospect at RB than any of the available WRs are prospects at WR, then they should go with Swift.  Don't sacrifice playmaking talent for need, especially in the first round.   The Bills need playmakers on both sides of the ball.

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, aristocrat said:

 

so you literally want to only take a rb in the 3rd an find an undrafted guy to lead your rb group?  is that the only formula to finding rbs?

Basically, yeah. Paying RBs a lot of money and or taking them in the first round is a waste of premium assets IMO. There might be an exception to that rule here and there but I don't want to be the team trying to find the exception.

[thebandit27]

24 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

Every year we see nobodies shine behind great lines. Upgrade the line and sign whoever. If he isn't Christian McCaffrey, don't waste the pick.

Do we though? 8 of the top 9 RBs in rushing were 1st or 2nd round picks.

 

Now I agree that it’s a diminishing returns situation at RB. I just think that the idea that any-old-guy at RB will work is misguided.

[aristocrat]

4 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Basically, yeah. Paying RBs a lot of money and or taking them in the first round is a waste of premium assets IMO. There might be an exception to that rule here and there but I don't want to be the team trying to find the exception.

 

My need for the offense is wr and rb.  1st and second round get it done.  Some good options for rb's possible in free agency but about zero for wr's as i dont think green and cooper are leaving.  If we get a rb in the first or second similar to a miles sanders...who caught 500 plus yards than you have a receiving threat which we need as well.   I hear ya on paying rb's but taking one later in the first doesn't pay a whole lot.  We need weapons on offense and rb is a need. 

[The Senator]

 

I think the Bills have bigger needs than RB - we'll have Singletary, Yeldon, and Wade - maybe Gore.

 

I see them taking a Defensive End - maybe Iowa's AJ Epenesa or 'bama's Terrell Lewis.

 

JMO

.

[Trogdor]

3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Do we though? 8 of the top 9 RBs in rushing were 1st or 2nd round picks.

 

Now I agree that it’s a diminishing returns situation at RB. I just think that the idea that any-old-guy at RB will work is misguided.

Those guys are generally workhorses though and I think in Buffalo it's going to be a committee. I'm not saying go out and get 30+yr old RBs like they have been, but I just don't think they need a 1st rounder. I'd kill for a big guy that could replace the FB for blocking and pass catching, but also run when needed.

[BuffaloRebound]

Trade for Gurley?  Rams supposedly looking to unload his contract.  We have plenty of cap space the next year or 2.  Might be able to get him for as little as a 3rd or 4th.  

[aristocrat]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Trade for Gurley?  Rams supposedly looking to unload his contract.  We have plenty of cap space the next year or 2.  Might be able to get him for as little as a 3rd or 4th.  

 

guy went from 2100 all purpose yards, to 1800 to 1100...and a 17 mil cap hit next year.  that's insane

[Wsam4031]

YEa we need a Rb in round 1. CJ Spiller says hi. THis guy is a moron

[Trogdor]

2 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

 

guy went from 2100 all purpose yards, to 1800 to 1100...and a 17 mil cap hit next year.  that's insane

That might be play calls more than anything. They just went away from him and it really hurt their offense this year.

[BuffaloRebound]

3 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

 

guy went from 2100 all purpose yards, to 1800 to 1100...and a 17 mil cap hit next year.  that's insane

I hear ya.  But he’s still only 25 and his remaining contract isn’t terrible.  Basically 2 years $22m left with no guarantees.  

[thebandit27]

27 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Trade for Gurley?  Rams supposedly looking to unload his contract.  We have plenty of cap space the next year or 2.  Might be able to get him for as little as a 3rd or 4th.  

His contract is prohibitive for LAR to trade. If they move him they’ll take a $25M dead money hit. If they keep him he costs $17M.

[BuffaloRebound]

15 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

His contract is prohibitive for LAR to trade. If they move him they’ll take a $25M dead money hit. If they keep him he costs $17M.

That’s if they cut him.  If they trade him, they have $12m dead cap and save $5m in cap room this year.  

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

That’s if they cut him.  If they trade him, they have $12m dead cap and save $5m in cap room this year.  

I see the info you’re referencing. I don’t think that they can trade him prior to the start of the new league year (3/18/20), and his base salary becomes guaranteed on 3/15/20, so I’m not sure that the info is accurate.

[WideNine]

Don't see it.

 

BPA for this group (Allen aside) is usually a defensive blue chipper.

 

Where the Bills are sitting in the draft means there could be a bit of a run on a lean position before their pick which can have an impact on the BPA lens.

 

There are plenty of impact RBs taken outside the first round, so see them going in other directions early.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

33 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

That’s if they cut him.  If they trade him, they have $12m dead cap and save $5m in cap room this year.  

 

They would need someone to eat the roster bonus - so trading team then pays him 13 million in 2020, plus 9 in 2021.  Good luck finding a partner for that...  It would take another team dumping a bad contract back and some pick swaps.  The 5 mill in space doesn't really do much for them either - like that isn't bringing in an impact player.  

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/los-angeles-rams/todd-gurley-16734/

 

 

[BuffaloRebound]

2 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

They would need someone to eat the roster bonus - so trading team then pays him 13 million in 2020, plus 9 in 2021.  Good luck finding a partner for that...  It would take another team dumping a bad contract back and some pick swaps.  The 5 mill in space doesn't really do much for them either - like that isn't bringing in an impact player.  

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/los-angeles-rams/todd-gurley-16734/

 

 

He’s still only 25 and 2 years removed from being NFL offensive MVP.  2 years $22m with no money guaranteed outside this year isn’t a huge risk especially to a team like the Bills who have tons of cap space this year.  His knee and contract are the reason they won’t get anything more than a 3rd or 4th rounder for him.  But the Bills are in need of a power home run back and have the cap space.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, BuffaloRebound said:

He’s still only 25 and 2 years removed from being NFL offensive MVP.  2 years $22m with no money guaranteed outside this year isn’t a huge risk especially to a team like the Bills who have tons of cap space this year.  His knee and contract are the reason they won’t get anything more than a 3rd or 4th rounder for him.  But the Bills are in need of a power home run back and have the cap space.  

 

The issue is - if you want to pay a back 22 million over 2 years you can do that with drake or gordon and not have to give up anything.  And they're on a crunched timeline as i assume the bonus pays out on the 3rd day of the league year.