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TSW Mock Draft 1.0 - Complete


Virgil

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1 minute ago, GG said:

 

This is a separate rationale than giving up major assets to go for a specific player who may not check all the boxes, though.  

 

How did this work out in the last very deep WR draft in 2014?

If we drafted Evans, Mack or OBJ it would have been a great decision. Sammy was considered the best WR in years and was the highest rated player on the Bills board over a 2 or 3 year span (and not just the Bills). They had a need and tried to grab an elite talent with a high floor and ceiling. His floor is where he has ended up but it’s still “productive starting WR with injury issues.”

 

The Bills don’t need “bodies” this year. This roster needs some difference makers. If ever there was a time to trade 2 bodies for 1 star it is now. If they believe there is a drop off after Jeudy, Ruggs and Lamb, they should try to go get them. While another Brown or Beasley caliber guy makes them better, a guy that you have to scheme for makes everyone better. 
 

You could have argued a year ago that DT wasn’t a big need with Star, Phillips and Phillips. The best player on the board was Ed Oliver and he will be elite. They took the elite talent and are better for it. 

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14 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

If we drafted Evans, Mack or OBJ it would have been a great decision. Sammy was considered the best WR in years and was the highest rated player on the Bills board over a 2 or 3 year span (and not just the Bills). They had a need and tried to grab an elite talent with a high floor and ceiling. His floor is where he has ended up but it’s still “productive starting WR with injury issues.”

 

The Bills don’t need “bodies” this year. This roster needs some difference makers. If ever there was a time to trade 2 bodies for 1 star it is now. If they believe there is a drop off after Jeudy, Ruggs and Lamb, they should try to go get them. While another Brown or Beasley caliber guy makes them better, a guy that you have to scheme for makes everyone better. 
 

You could have argued a year ago that DT wasn’t a big need with Star, Phillips and Phillips. The best player on the board was Ed Oliver and he will be elite. They took the elite talent and are better for it. 

 

You should almost never trade up for any prospect other than a QB, and historic data proves it.   The 2014 draft was an epic fail on so many levels, but also has to be looked in the context of the GM needing to salvage a bad QB decision two years prior.

 

The Bills don't need a lot of bodies this year, but they need the right bodies to fill out the roster, and using up two high draft picks to select the 3rd best WR in a very deep draft is reckless.

 

Also, the Bills absolutely had a need to backfill the DL in the 2019 draft, because Star was on a short leash, Shaq was in his last contract year, Phillips resigned for a prove-it one-year deal, and Murphy proved to be unreliable.  Even after drafting Oliver, DL remains a huge need for Buffalo this offseason.  

 

Trading up in this draft and missing out on the very few blue-chip defenders would be horrendous. 

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2 minutes ago, GG said:

 

You should almost never trade up for any prospect other than a QB, and historic data proves it.   The 2014 draft was an epic fail on so many levels, but also has to be looked in the context of the GM needing to salvage a bad QB decision two years prior.

 

The Bills don't need a lot of bodies this year, but they need the right bodies to fill out the roster, and using up two high draft picks to select the 3rd best WR in a very deep draft is reckless.

 

2014 was only 1 year after EJ.

 

As for this year, I think it is risky. It is not particularly what I am advocating, but I don't think it is reckless if you think that there are 15 good receivers but only 3 elite ones then I have no problem with trading up for the elite one. If you get it wrong - like they did with Sammy - they will get hammered for it. But if you get it right like Atlanta did with Julio..... well that's a different story.

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16 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

OL and WR will be what they pursue in FA.  I perceive both as needs.  From what I have seen of Our GM and HC.  They will not have any perceived needs going into the draft.  So that BPA is in play.

 

I agree with OL.  I just don't see a WR in FA who is worth it or will even produce to the level that Hooper/Henry will.  I hope we get Hunter/Henry and Conklin (OL).  

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24 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

I agree with OL.  I just don't see a WR in FA who is worth it or will even produce to the level that Hooper/Henry will.  I hope we get Hunter/Henry and Conklin (OL).  

 

I'm with this also - one of the reasons I'm for us pursuing a FA TE is because I see better value there than in the FA WR.  I wouldn't mind a shot on a mid-pack guy like Perriman if they see value there.  I'm cautious of Henry due to injury history, but I also feel more trust in our current medical and training staff to better assess players injury status (Kroft notwithstanding).  I don't want AJ Green.  He's a great player, but the combination of age/injury history is scary.

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With the 42nd pick in TSW Mock Draft 1.0, the Jacksonville Jaguars select Jacob Eason, QB, Washington.

 

Even with Minshew Mania, our decision to release Foles left us thin at the position.  Eason has all the raw skills we look for in a QB, similar to a Josh Allen.  We hope to give him the time to develop and have a healthy quarterback competition in a few years.  While this wasn't an initial target, he was clearly our highest rated talent on our board.

 

The Chicago Bears @section122 are on the clock

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53 minutes ago, GG said:

 

You should almost never trade up for any prospect other than a QB, and historic data proves it.   The 2014 draft was an epic fail on so many levels, but also has to be looked in the context of the GM needing to salvage a bad QB decision two years prior.

 

The Bills don't need a lot of bodies this year, but they need the right bodies to fill out the roster, and using up two high draft picks to select the 3rd best WR in a very deep draft is reckless.

 

Also, the Bills absolutely had a need to backfill the DL in the 2019 draft, because Star was on a short leash, Shaq was in his last contract year, Phillips resigned for a prove-it one-year deal, and Murphy proved to be unreliable.  Even after drafting Oliver, DL remains a huge need for Buffalo this offseason.  

 

Trading up in this draft and missing out on the very few blue-chip defenders would be horrendous. 

BB trades up as often as he trades back. The Saints trade up a lot too. I don’t buy you shouldn’t trade up AT ALL. It depends on your roster situation and where the drop offs are. if you have Ruggs, Lamb, and Jeudy graded as top 15 players and the next tier Ayiuk, Shenault, Reagor, Higgins or whomever graded at 25 and below I’m all for trading up. This is the year to go after the best of the best even if it results in fewer bites at the apple.
 

The Bills have 9 draft picks this year. They are not going to have 9 rookies on the roster. 2 years ago they may have done that. Those picks are currency to target players that make you better. The difference between player 53 and 54 is infinitely less important than the difference between player 22 and 23. That’s the point. The Bills have “good enough players” at the back of their roster like Daryl Johnson, Tommy Sweeney, etc.. that they shouldn’t care if it’s them or someone else. They need players at the top of the roster to make them better. You pay a premium in terms of picks and cap dollars to get those types of players.  
 

 

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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Bills fans always do. The objective should be to get the best guy. I maintain there is no fanbase in the league more obsessed with the size of receiver than the Bills fan base. Despite the fact that we have had big guys over the years and it has never ended particularly well they constantly obsess about size over talent. Pick the best guy. Better players get open more than average players whether they are 5ft7 or 6ft4.

A large part of this fan base seems to not understand that “open while covered” is just vertical separation from height and/ leaping ability.... and subsequently a faster 5’11”-6’ guy with a 40” vertical can actually be open when covered, a la AB, OBJ, Steve Smith, etc.

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58 minutes ago, Virgil said:

With the 42nd pick in TSW Mock Draft 1.0, the Jacksonville Jaguars select Jacob Eason, QB, Washington.

 

Even with Minshew Mania, our decision to release Foles left us thin at the position.  Eason has all the raw skills we look for in a QB, similar to a Josh Allen.  We hope to give him the time to develop and have a healthy quarterback competition in a few years.  While this wasn't an initial target, he was clearly our highest rated talent on our board.

 

The Chicago Bears @section122 are on the clock

Is it really feasible to release Foles monetarily?

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1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Not unless there is a new CBA. If there is not there is no post-June 1st designations this year.

Crap Meant Pre Jun 1-

 

A Trade before June 1st give Jags 18.75M Dead and a Cap Savings of 3.125M

 

A Release Pre June 1 gives Jags 33.875M Dead and a Cap Savings of -12M

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3 hours ago, GG said:

 

Not only that, but Bills trade #2 pick to move up 7 slots?

 

Beane would be rightfully burned alive for that trade for that pick in this draft.

Virgil's 10% overpay required significant more capital than it should have been based on our 2018 draft day trade up from #22 to #16.

 

A deep draft does imply that the tier 2 talent is ready to step in right away on Daboll's offense and make route adjustments based on reads. You also don't have 2 years to wait for a WR to develop, as Beane said we didn't score enough points & Josh needs more weapons. Shenault is not that, nor is Jefferson, nor is Higgins, nor is Aiyuk - the top 3 are ready to play in the NFL though....

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3 hours ago, JMF2006 said:

 

I was thinking the same thing.

 

Plus we  get a speed guy that does not play well against press.

 

I thought the objective was to draft a big go up and get it guy who is open even when covered.

Watch some video and not just comment on assumptions of a fast player and reading some small pieces of scouting reports on the interwebs. 

 

He is a dynamic player and much different than smoke - he can stop on a dime, accelerate instantly, makes contested catches, can catch a back shoulder pass, can adjust to the ball, can go over the middle, run verts, is an outstanding run blocker, a YAC master, will lower the shoulder into DBs and will draw safety coverage away freom the others and open up the defense - which is something else we are missing. He is a 3 year player and a 2 year starter who has improved every year and is an explosive high-ceiling pick, which fits Bean's RD1/RD2 criteria.

 

Later rounds and other tiers of players have more question marks = bigger wash out potential and will require a lot more development and can't jump in right away and run Daboll's offense for a WR. Lamb, Jeudy & Ruggs are the 3 ideal WRs to jump in and help out right away.

 

Seeing you are making an off the cuff comment like this, please provide some facts and insights into what other WRs can jump in right away, run a good route tree, make reads based on the defense. I would also say that the 2 Alabama players, have a little exposure to Daboll as well. Remember according to Beane we need  TO SCORE POINTS & HELP JOSH. Please try to think critically with your response :)

 

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3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is a very deep receiver draft. But it comes down to do the Bills have the 2nd or 3rd guy as potential elite compared to a load of people below that they have down as good. There ended up being 3 elite guys in that "deep" 2014 draft - Evans, OBJ and Adams. Two of those were two of the first three guys off the board. Would you risk it for that vs Kelvin Benjamin, Jordan Matthews or Marquise Lee?

Adams was a big question mark in that draft and had very few starts. Landry ran a 4.77 40 and also had a ton of question marks. There is a reason they slid to RD2 and there was not a ton of certainty that they developed. I do suspect Adams would not have developed this well without Rodgers at QB.They also took time to develop, we need someone who can suit up and be productive enough to help Josh and as of now outside of the top 3 I am struggling to see others. Reagor is a prospect I like and last year, he could have been a good choice, not so much this year if we want to take a step.

 

Beane has said he won't sacrifice future drafts, but has no qualms about giving up a 1st and seconds and not picking again until RD3. The more I study this draft, the more likely I see us entertaining a move up for the WR depending on what goes on in FA. 

 

Landry isn't a #1 IMO either.

 

Aiyuk and some others will be able to help a lttle bit this year, but I am not expecting much. Even Shenault, I'm not sure how much of an upgrade over Mackenzie he will be in year 1. That is not helping the offense score more points and it is not helping Josh. JOsh will be entering years 4&5 very soon and we will need to make decisions there and there is a chance we could take care of him next offseason - we need to know who he is before that point. I'm not sure the next group of WRs will help enough this year. 

2 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

 

I agree with OL.  I just don't see a WR in FA who is worth it or will even produce to the level that Hooper/Henry will.  I hope we get Hunter/Henry and Conklin (OL).  

TE is cheaper than WR on the UFA market as well...

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2 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

Adams was a big question mark in that draft and had very few starts. Landry ran a 4.77 40 and also had a ton of question marks. There is a reason they slid to RD2 and there was not a ton of certainty that they developed. I do suspect Adams would not have developed this well without Rodgers at QB.They also took time to develop, we need someone who can suit up and be productive enough to help Josh and as of now outside of the top 3 I am struggling to see others. Reagor is a prospect I like and last year, he could have been a good choice, not so much this year if we want to take a step.

 

Beane has said he won't sacrifice future drafts, but has no qualms about giving up a 1st and seconds and not picking again until RD3. The more I study this draft, the more likely I see us entertaining a move up for the WR depending on what goes on in FA. 

 

Landry isn't a #1 IMO either.

 

Aiyuk and some others will be able to help a lttle bit this year, but I am not expecting much. Even Shenault, I'm not sure how much of an upgrade over Mackenzie he will be in year 1. That is not helping the offense score more points and it is not helping Josh. JOsh will be entering years 4&5 very soon and we will need to make decisions there and there is a chance we could take care of him next offseason - we need to know who he is before that point. I'm not sure the next group of WRs will help enough this year. 

 

For sure. Adams shows you can win rolling the dice but the other two elite guys were 2 of the top 3. You are much more likely to find elite taking the best talents than trying to wait. 

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11 hours ago, Virgil said:


It would be hard for me to enjoy the draft and run this.  But, I would love to see a real time poll per pick and see who does the best.  Not sure how that would go 


Different teams for the first two.  Depending on how people do will dictate who does the final.  That’s the one we try to see how closest to the pin we can get 

 

 

 

 

The Jacksonville Jaguars are on the clock. 
 

@BuffaLoko

 

You have until 11a est with the new day upon us 

I missed it too! maybe next year, I like what I see in the draft tough.

in a side note, Virgil,  your mock draft gets better every year, and it adds to the excitement for the real one coming soon...too bad this year, my available time was not of same size than my will to join,and your kindness to invite me  ? ... kudos!

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4 hours ago, wppete said:

Miami is feeling good with this offensive haul so far in this draft. We got out QB in Justin Herbert and added 2 elite OTs in the first round. Andrew Thomas (Georgia) and Josh Jones (Houston). Then at the top of the 2nd round Miami drafts a stud RB in JK Dobbins (Ohio St.). Add that with their existing weapons at WR and TE and Miami looks much better on Offense for 2020. 

Go Bills!! squeeze the tuna out of them!?

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42 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

This is why I dont want to trade up in this draft...now look at us with no 2nd round pick and lots of talent still on the board.

 

Just stand fast and pick at 22

what position/who do you want in RD2 and will they be better than any player on the roster right now? 

 

The difference with the WRs for instance in the second/third/4th tiers are fairly small and that is what makes this a "deep" class. 

 

All we truly need in this class is maybe 4 players max, An elite WR, developmental DB, developmental RB and Developmental WR. The longer developing WR will come in RD3/4 where the "deep" class can properly be utilized. Deep class does not mean a boatload of elite talent in every round - those guys only exist in the top 15ish in any given draft.

 

We have $90 million in cap space to fill our any holes on this roster. 

Edited by Reed83HOF
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1 hour ago, Just Joshin' said:

This is the player I was going to target for the Jets @ 48.  Good selection.

With jefferson we put another big target across cortland.  We really wanted Jalen from TCU to help stretch the field but we can address that in FA.  We have the pieces in place to help build a strong foundation.  With Wirfs in the 1st and now jefferson in the 2nd along drew lock, cortland, noah fant and lindsay I like what we have going on the offensive side of the ball.  Hey we also have another pick coming up so I'm really excited how this team is shaping up.

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10 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I realize that nobody has a crystal ball

 

based on the way played out I would have stayed put and taken Schnault or Higgans in the first..........and taken a RB in the second round

 

I would have gotten a pass rusher in free agency

I may be in the minority but the more I hear, at least at this point, I don’t want Shenault or Higgins. Shenault is too raw and Higgins has a lower ceiling. Again, that is my opinion but we don’t need “another guy.” We need “a guy.”

Edited by Kirby Jackson
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2 minutes ago, Watkins90 said:

Henry Ruggs is a huge reach at 15 with so much talent at WR still and needing to trade to get there.

He’s 15 on McShay’s big board, 11 on Matt Miller’s big board, 12 on Daniel Jeremiah’s big board, etc...

 

Not sure how he is “a huge reach at 15?”

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2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

He’s 15 on McShay’s big board, 11 on Matt Miller’s big board, 12 on Daniel Jeremiah’s big board, etc...

 

Not sure how he is “a huge reach at 15?”

 

I have started this week on the receivers and I have Jeudy and Lamb then small gap and Ruggs and then a bigger gap and a jumble behind them. 

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14 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I may be in the minority but the more I hear, at least at this point, I don’t want Shenault or Higgins. Shenault is too raw and Higgins has a lower ceiling. Again, that is my opinion but we don’t need “another guy.” We need “a guy.”

I just feel we already have Ruggs skill set in players we already have on the team

 

What we do not have is SIZE.....catch radius guys that will fight for a ball in the end zone....we keep throwing them catchable balls and they dont go get it

 

We need that....

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31 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have started this week on the receivers and I have Jeudy and Lamb then small gap and Ruggs and then a bigger gap and a jumble behind them. 

That seems to be the general feeling. It’s unlikely any of them see 15 IMO.

26 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I just feel we already have Ruggs skill set in players we already have on the team

 

What we do not have is SIZE.....catch radius guys that will fight for a ball in the end zone....we keep throwing them catchable balls and they dont go get it

 

We need that....

We need guys that keep coordinators up at night. We don’t have a guy that does that but Josh. We need to stop with the antiquated thinking that “because we have speed we now need size” or vice versa.


In the analytics world sports have changed. The Rockets are playing a lineup of guys 6’6” and below. They just killed the best team in basketball. They aren’t worried about “we are too small.” They are forcing teams to adjust to their game. The same thing that the Chiefs do with speed. They dictate what happens.
 

The Bills don’t need a certain type of guy because they don’t have it. They need guys that are elite playmakers. If they are WR, TE, RB, 4’10”or  7’3”. It really doesn’t matter. We are so set on passing on superior talent because we have guys like them. That’s a MASSIVE mistake IMO. Get the best talent and then put them in a position to maximize that ability.

 

I’ll get off my soapbox because this isn’t the thread for this. Sorry Virgil!!

Edited by Kirby Jackson
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