Doc Brown Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, TPS said: Sweden is not "much lower than other developed countries." It's fifth is deaths per million among countries with 20k or more cases. Italy and Spain are currently higher because they were hit early and hard. We'll see if Sweden overtakes them. The point of a lockdown was to prevent the health system from becoming overwhelmed. The idea of "flattening the curve" doesn't mean fewer coronavirus cases overall, it means spreading the cases so the health system can accomodate both covid and other serious health issues. This was the point made in Pueyo's articles. Interestingly he suggested less extreme measures, including masks and social distancing. Maybe US politicians took more extreme measures due to your focus on culture--they realized many Americans won't adhere to the policies. Arizona is an interesting case study at the moment. As cases have increased after re-opening, and reports that ICU facilities are nearing capacity, how should they respond? I was all for the Swedish model at first. Now we're getting worse numbers though as Sweden's death rate (47.5 per 100k) is significantly higher than other Scandinavian countries Norway (4.4 per 100k) and Findland (5.8 per 100k). My thought was at least they'd get to herd immunity but that doesn't seem to be playing out either. Even their economy isn't much better off compared to other European countries. Edited June 10, 2020 by Doc Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Gal Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Well that's ok since protesters, rioters, and looters were somehow magically protected by their righteous indignation. ?♂️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 58 minutes ago, Doc Brown said: I was all for the Swedish model at first. Now we're getting worse numbers though as Sweden's death rate (47.5 per 100k) is significantly higher than other Scandinavian countries Norway (4.4 per 100k) and Findland (5.8 per 100k). My thought was at least they'd get to herd immunity but that doesn't seem to be playing out either. Even their economy isn't much better off compared to other European countries. The thing is, in Sweden, they had planned to selectively protect their elderly and leave most of the rest of the population free to go about their normal lives but it doesn't look like their protections of the elderly were adequate. (Much like NYC's protections for the elderly turned out to be inadequate though the state was shut down hard.) Should another pathogen with similar potential for death arise, Sweden seems to have shown the general population doesn't need to halt their lives on a dime. But their protections of the elderly were (or at bare mi in IMO seem woefully) inadequate and we need to look to other examples of what did end up successful to protect those most at risk. (Not forcing nursing care facilities to accept currently ill patients MIGHT be a good starting point.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, Taro T said: The thing is, in Sweden, they had planned to selectively protect their elderly and leave most of the rest of the population free to go about their normal lives but it doesn't look like their protections of the elderly were adequate. (Much like NYC's protections for the elderly turned out to be inadequate though the state was shut down hard.) Should another pathogen with similar potential for death arise, Sweden seems to have shown the general population doesn't need to halt their lives on a dime. But their protections of the elderly were (or at bare mi in IMO seem woefully) inadequate and we need to look to other examples of what did end up successful to protect those most at risk. (Not forcing nursing care facilities to accept currently ill patients MIGHT be a good starting point.) I lost him after he mentioned "Swedish model". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 4 hours ago, GG said: This is a gross misrepresentation. Cases are rising due to more widespread testing. The positive results continue to drop significantly. The number of active cases that require hospitalizations and ICU are falling in states that opened up early! The death rate is dropping faster than WHO Covid retractions. I linked other data on this before. Here’s more from the state’s largest health system. Your opinions are incorrect. Follow the numbers and frontlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
123719bwiqrb Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 11 minutes ago, shoshin said: I linked other data on this before. Here’s more from the state’s largest health system. Your opinions are incorrect. Follow the numbers and frontlines. 117!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, shoshin said: I linked other data on this before. Here’s more from the state’s largest health system. Your opinions are incorrect. Follow the numbers and frontlines. Where is the flashing red in Arizona? Where is the evidence that Arizona is at the start of exponential growth? Arizona is not exhibiting signs of a runaway crisis. If anything the charts show that the lockdown did bupkus to stop the viral growth because there's been a consistent, but small increase. If you look at the state's ICU capacity, it's been consistently above 70% since early May, when the heavy restrictions were still in place. Now ask yourself why is Arizona suddenly being called out as a hotspot, when its trends haven't changed that much in a month? Why is the focus off Texas and everyone is jumping on North Carolina? The doomsayers will glom onto any piece of negative news, without examining all the underlying numbers to spot an anomaly or a false trend. Why are CO, GA & WI very stable despite opening up in early May? We're into Day 10 of Floyd protests. Should there be a swarm of hospitalizations by now? And please stop posting case numbers as evidence, because that's a total reflection of increased testing. I can provide a dozen examples of people I know who are testing positive for antibodies because they had a very nasty "bug" in February/early March. Do you ask why more data isn't coming out on those results? Edited June 10, 2020 by GG 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 7 hours ago, TPS said: Sweden is not "much lower than other developed countries." It's fifth is deaths per million among countries with 20k or more cases. Italy and Spain are currently higher because they were hit early and hard. We'll see if Sweden overtakes them. The point of a lockdown was to prevent the health system from becoming overwhelmed. The idea of "flattening the curve" doesn't mean fewer coronavirus cases overall, it means spreading the cases so the health system can accomodate both covid and other serious health issues. This was the point made in Pueyo's articles. Interestingly he suggested less extreme measures, including masks and social distancing. Maybe US politicians took more extreme measures due to your focus on culture--they realized many Americans won't adhere to the policies. Arizona is an interesting case study at the moment. As cases have increased after re-opening, and reports that ICU facilities are nearing capacity, how should they respond? Ranking fifth among the developed world is not as bad considering they didn't lock down the country. Taro is correct to point out their failure in protecting the extremely vulnerable. But when you ask whether lockdowns helped stop the spread, Sweden's #20 rank in the case count indicates that the lockdowns did not slow the spread as much as people credit them. By the time the lockdowns took effect, much of the virus had run through the first wave. The data also suggests that mortality and spread were heavily influenced by the differences in the mutations. But there are still many unexplained questions of the propagation and mortality rates. It's naive to think that a virus this deadly infected the entire northern Italy from a single tourist visiting Bergamo, yet somehow stopped spreading past Milan. Why was it an easier jump to Spain, then to France, Belgium & UK, but not Switzerland. More locally, why didn't the lethality of the virus cross the commuter counties of NYC? We're onto month 2 post-Hasidic funerals. The yeshivas have been open under the radar. Where are the Williamsburg spikes? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 50 minutes ago, GG said: Ranking fifth among the developed world is not as bad considering they didn't lock down the country. Taro is correct to point out their failure in protecting the extremely vulnerable. But when you ask whether lockdowns helped stop the spread, Sweden's #20 rank in the case count indicates that the lockdowns did not slow the spread as much as people credit them. By the time the lockdowns took effect, much of the virus had run through the first wave. The data also suggests that mortality and spread were heavily influenced by the differences in the mutations. But there are still many unexplained questions of the propagation and mortality rates. It's naive to think that a virus this deadly infected the entire northern Italy from a single tourist visiting Bergamo, yet somehow stopped spreading past Milan. Why was it an easier jump to Spain, then to France, Belgium & UK, but not Switzerland. More locally, why didn't the lethality of the virus cross the commuter counties of NYC? We're onto month 2 post-Hasidic funerals. The yeshivas have been open under the radar. Where are the Williamsburg spikes? I'm not sure what you're using to rank cases? Sweden is in the top 10 for cases per million population. I'm curious, then, what would you suggest they do in Arizona, Texas, Florida, and other states where the number of cases is increasing again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
realtruelove Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, TPS said: I'm not sure what you're using to rank cases? Sweden is in the top 10 for cases per million population. I'm curious, then, what would you suggest they do in Arizona, Texas, Florida, and other states where the number of cases is increasing again? Protest with no masks on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 26 minutes ago, TPS said: I'm not sure what you're using to rank cases? Sweden is in the top 10 for cases per million population. I'm curious, then, what would you suggest they do in Arizona, Texas, Florida, and other states where the number of cases is increasing again? Worldmeters. If you take out the small populated countries, Sweden would still be #15. That's not horrible considering no lockdown. If the theory was spot on, they'd be the far away leader. The states that have a tick up in cases should remember to practice proper hygiene & safe distancing. But there's nothing in the data to suggest that this is the start of another exponential growth curve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 Could just be noise. Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 Po 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 For places that got an initial wave, have any of them had a big second wave? I don't think so, but I'm curious if anyone else can answer that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warren Zevon Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 Yesterday, Wednesday, once again there were no states that reported triple digit deaths and 30 states were in single digits ....again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 57 minutes ago, shoshin said: For places that got an initial wave, have any of them had a big second wave? I don't think so, but I'm curious if anyone else can answer that. Wuhan, Bergamo, NYC ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 (edited) 54 minutes ago, GG said: Wuhan, Bergamo, NYC ... Those are currently counterexamples to what I'm asking. Asking if anyplace has had a big second wave after the first (yet). Summer may see the downtrend that the Spanish Flu had but I'm still curious about this. Edited June 11, 2020 by shoshin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 Just now, shoshin said: Those are currently counterexamples to what I'm asking. You mean when you asked if there are second waves in places that were hard hit? What other examples are you looking for? All the fear mongering about AZ, NC & TX are misplaced because they're still rolling through their first wave. And but surely looks like the medical profession is utilizing lessons learned much better than the unfortunate places that got hit first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spartacus Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 17 hours ago, shoshin said: I linked other data on this before. Here’s more from the state’s largest health system. Your opinions are incorrect. Follow the numbers and frontlines. took your advice to check out the numbers went to the mecca of info- the CDC looking for hospitalization data this should should be a high priority item to tract actual results in the field, as the entire shutdown was to prevent overwhelming the hospitals However, after 4 months, the CDC still is not too interested tracking and posting in that critical info https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html The below is from the CDC site, which indicates they are sampling 10% of the US population, in sites that have already been heavily hit, to "estimate" expected results (more modeling) "The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET) conducts population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated hospitalizations in children (persons younger than 18 years) and adults. The current network covers nearly 100 counties in the 10 Emerging Infections Program (EIP) states (CA, CO, CT, GA, MD, MN, NM, NY, OR, and TN) and four additional states through the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Project (IA, MI, OH, and UT). The network represents approximately 10% of US population (~32 million people). Cases are identified by reviewing hospital, laboratory, and admission databases and infection control logs for patients hospitalized with a documented positive SARS-CoV-2 test. Data gathered are used to estimate age-specific hospitalization rates on a weekly basis and describe characteristics of persons hospitalized with COVID-19. Laboratory confirmation is dependent on clinician-ordered SARS-CoV-2 testing. Therefore, the rates provided are likely to be underestimated as COVID-19-associated hospitalizations can be missed due to test availability and provider or facility testing practices." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 1 minute ago, GG said: All the fear mongering about AZ, NC & TX are misplaced because they're still rolling through their first wave. And but surely looks like the medical profession is utilizing lessons learned much better than the unfortunate places that got hit first. Couldn’t agree more. Everyone has moved on. Even this thread rarely cracks the top ten anymore. You never hear from the White House Task Force and the two Dr Experts must be in the witness protection program. The media clown show has move off to the next hair (City) on fire hysteria. I can’t see how our society survives this way, moving from frenzy to frenzy on a monthly basis. Everyone’s heads are going to explode long before they die from this pandemic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said: Couldn’t agree more. Everyone has moved on. Even this thread rarely cracks the top ten anymore. You never hear from the White House Task Force and the two Dr Experts must be in the witness protection program. The media clown show has move off to the next hair (City) on fire hysteria. I can’t see how our society survives this way, moving from frenzy to frenzy on a monthly basis. Everyone’s heads are going to explode long before they die from this pandemic! Everyone sort of moved on. Look at what the fear mongering is doing to the markets today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, GG said: Everyone sort of moved on. Look at what the fear mongering is doing to the markets today. It’s interesting you point to the markets because I look at it the exact opposite. We have just gone through an end of the world pandemic and now civil unrest (including an ongoing partial occupation of a major US city) and the markets reaction has pretty much been....yawn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warren Zevon Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 Just now, SoCal Deek said: It’s interesting you point to the markets because I look at it the exact opposite. We have just gone through an end of the world pandemic and now civil unrest (including an ongoing partial occupation of a major US city) and the markets reaction has pretty much been....yawn! -3% at open Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SectionC3 Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 15 minutes ago, GG said: You mean when you asked if there are second waves in places that were hard hit? What other examples are you looking for? All the fear mongering about AZ, NC & TX are misplaced because they're still rolling through their first wave. And but surely looks like the medical profession is utilizing lessons learned much better than the unfortunate places that got hit first. But the virus has been reduced to ashes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 Just now, Warren Zevon said: -3% at open So? The markets have been going up and down, but mostly up, just like they always do. You don’t judge the stock market on daily movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warren Zevon Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 Just now, SoCal Deek said: So? The markets have been going up and down, but mostly up, just like they always do. You don’t judge the stock market on daily movement. You claim the markets have been "yawn." That's absurd. They had a huge climb the last month or so. The protests have been going on for two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, Warren Zevon said: You claim the markets have been "yawn." That's absurd. They had a huge climb the last month or so. The protests have been going on for two weeks. Come on Warren. You have to look at the markets with a wider lens. A day? A week? A month? Seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, SectionC3 said: But the virus has been reduced to ashes! Holy hyperbole, Batman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 (edited) 27 minutes ago, GG said: You mean when you asked if there are second waves in places that were hard hit? What other examples are you looking for? I'm asking if anyone can think of any. Quote All the fear mongering about AZ, NC & TX are misplaced because they're still rolling through their first wave. There's plenty to fear about high hospitalizations but it's unknown what will happen with reopening/the fall. Will we see future hospitalization overload or will it level? Will the fall be like fall 1918 or more like summer 2020? You think it's over. I don't know. I'm just trying to read the tea leaves based on the places that were hit hard and reopened before us, and it doesn't seem like they are having spikes (yet?). Edited June 11, 2020 by shoshin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 Just now, shoshin said: I'm asking if anyone can think of any. Shosin....I report the numbers every day from the same source (as good scientific method should always do) and I’m not seeing the trending that you’re looking for. The most telling graphic we have is the one on the CDC website that shows the weekly death curve by age group dating back to January. It’s stunning to see what’s happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 14 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said: It’s interesting you point to the markets because I look at it the exact opposite. We have just gone through an end of the world pandemic and now civil unrest (including an ongoing partial occupation of a major US city) and the markets reaction has pretty much been....yawn! It has most definitely not been "yawn." And ~9-10% unemployment for the foreseeable future is also not "yawn." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warren Zevon Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said: Come on Warren. You have to look at the markets with a wider lens. A day? A week? A month? Seriously? Of course. The markets have not been "yawn" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 Just now, SoCal Deek said: Shosin....I report the numbers every day from the same source (as good scientific method should always do) and I’m not seeing the trending that you’re looking for. The most telling graphic we have is the one on the CDC website that shows the weekly death curve by age group dating back to January. It’s stunning to see what’s happened. Agreed RE numbers. It's why I asked the question. I don't think anyplace that got hit hard initially has yet to see a second wave. I'm not saying it can't or won't happen but there's no data point for it yet unless I'm mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Poojer Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 i don't think he meant the markets were flat and boring, i think he meant their attitude towards this plandemic was 'yawn' 1 minute ago, Warren Zevon said: Of course. The markets have not been "yawn" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, shoshin said: Agreed RE numbers. It's why I asked the question. I don't think anyplace that got hit hard initially has yet to see a second wave. I'm not saying it can't or won't happen but there's no data point for it yet unless I'm mistaken. Better keep an eye on those renegade Hasids. Any day now, Williamsburg cases will explode. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warren Zevon Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 Just now, The Poojer said: i don't think he meant the markets were flat and boring, i think he meant their attitude towards this plandemic was 'yawn' The markets don't have an attitude. They have data that shows how wild the last few months have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 1 minute ago, The Poojer said: i don't think he meant the markets were flat and boring, i think he meant their attitude towards this plandemic was 'yawn' Thanks We just went through a worldwide pandemic that was forecasted to wipe out a large percentage of the US population and Warren is worried because the market is trending down, today? He must not have a 401K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warren Zevon Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 Nowhere did I say I was worried the market is trending down today. Where do you get this ***** from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, shoshin said: Agreed RE numbers. It's why I asked the question. I don't think anyplace that got hit hard initially has yet to see a second wave. I'm not saying it can't or won't happen but there's no data point for it yet unless I'm mistaken. I keep reporting on NY because I assume a bunch of people on a Bills chat room are from there. NY state’s numbers are down to around 5% of their daily peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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