The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Buffalo_Gal]

 

[shoshin]

13 minutes ago, GG said:

 

This was the initial, but faulty analysis by many, including Nial Ferguson, which set the stage for the lockdowns.  Now with much more data in hand and two months of treatments in the highly infected regions in NYC metro, Italy & Spain, the actual rate is closer to 0.4% and possibly lower. 

 

There's virtually no reason every area of US outside immediate NYC area shouldn't start reopening immediately.

 

Mortality rate remains the wrong measure for reopening now that we have a better sense of it. Hospital ICU capacity will remain the limiting resource from this point forward. 

[billsfan1959]

28 minutes ago, BillStime said:

 

I need examples. 

 

You need therapy...

[BillStime]

4 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

You need therapy...

[shoshin]

17 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

 

 

I see minimal harm in trying HCQ, but I ain't listenin to that quack. 

 

[Gary M]

4 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Mortality rate remains the wrong measure for reopening now that we have a better sense of it. Hospital ICU capacity will remain the limiting resource from this point forward. 

 

And we never hit capacity and are finding out more and more people have the antibodies. I believe we are safe.

 

Sadly they keep feeding us partial info to keep us scared and under control!!!

 

[GG]

5 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Mortality rate remains the wrong measure for reopening now that we have a better sense of it. Hospital ICU capacity will remain the limiting resource from this point forward. 

 

It's one of many measures.  Hospitalizations are an artifact of new infections, whose growth has dropped dramatically.  

 

If you look at any statistic, it shows that we've been on a steep downward decline for the last 2 weeks. 

[Nanker]

43 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Wrong.

 

The count from yesterday, even on that site, is not 11, a number you stated twice, but 1154. It was a low day but every weekend seems to be. Last Saturday, 1156 people died. By Tuesday, it was up around 2500. 

 

 

Stranger how wrong his post was. 

Yes.  I woke up at 4:30 and checked the numbers. I was in error. 

[Buffalo_Gal]

If this was previously posted, apologies....
 

 

[shoshin]

7 minutes ago, GG said:

 

It's one of many measures.  Hospitalizations are an artifact of new infections, whose growth has dropped dramatically.  

 

If you look at any statistic, it shows that we've been on a steep downward decline for the last 2 weeks. 

 

There is only a minimal drop off in deaths and there is no steep drop in hospitalizations in some places. Both those trail cases, which of course are down with 6-8 weeks of shutdown.

 

Since we lack adequate testing, as we reopen, we will only have hospitalization to function as a measure of our spread and outbreaks. It's a bad way to manage the disease but it's all we have.

 

And since it's the limiting resource, governors will have to keep a close eye on regional hospital rates to ensure there are enough beds. Hospitalization bed availability will drive the reopenings, nothing else, until we get rapid testing/tracking online. Once we have rapid testing/tracking, that will drive things. 

[B-Man]

 

 

I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE NUMBERS LOOK THIS WAY NATIONWIDE: 

 

Illinois: Elderly care facilities have accounted for 44% of the state’s coronavirus deaths and nearly one in seven confirmed cases, according to a Sun-Times count.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[meazza]

11 minutes ago, Nanker said:

Yes.  I woke up at 4:30 and checked the numbers. I was in error. 

Word to the wise.  Always sleep in.

[shoshin]

12 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

If this was previously posted, apologies....
 

 

 

Magox and I talked about this issue a lot but with 600 pages, who could follow all the talk here. This is a HUGE issue. My wife is seeing this daily with her patients and we were talking with a nurse cousin yesterday who was saying that they are not as busy right now in non-Covid cases, but the people coming in are SO much sicker than normal. 

 

2 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE NUMBERS LOOK THIS WAY NATIONWIDE: 

 

Illinois: Elderly care facilities have accounted for 44% of the state’s coronavirus deaths and nearly one in seven confirmed cases, according to a Sun-Times count.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A week or so ago, it was 60+% in PA. 

Edited May 4, 2020 by shoshin

[Magox]

4 hours ago, shoshin said:

Did Pompeo really say it was genetically modified or not? It’s like he didn’t listen to himself. 

 

 

 

I would say that he misspoke. 

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

19 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Thanks for posting this breaking news about the dangers of tuning in to caucasian male talk show hosts. I found a separate article that I thought is on point as well.  

 

 

University of California at Berkley study finds statistical evidence suggesting that “greater viewership of Hannity relative to Leave It To Beaver reruns is strongly associated with a greater number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the early stages of the pandemic”

WRITTEN BY HOLDEN MAGROIN

PUBLISHED 04/22/20 1:51 PM EDT

 

 

According to the article, the study authors “calculate that Fox viewers who watched Hannity rather than Beaver were less likely to adhere to social distancing rules, and that areas where more people watched Hannity relative to Beaver had higher local rates of infection and death.”  Researchers suggest that in spite of the dangers associated with COVID-19, there is no data that suggests Beaver watchers have any greater risk of catching the virus than the population as a whole.  "Our message to the American people is clear, and it's good news for most.  Enjoy all the Beaver you can, it's completely safe." said lead researcher C. Howett Fealz. 

Edited May 4, 2020 by leh-nerd skin-erd

[Magox]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

 

Wrong.

 

The count from yesterday, even on that site, is not 11, a number you stated twice, but 1154. It was a low day but every weekend seems to be. Last Saturday, 1156 people died. By Tuesday, it was up around 2500. 

 

 

Stranger how wrong his post was. 

 

Honest mistake... It happens 

[shoshin]

3 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

I would say that he misspoke. 

 

Which time? 

[Magox]

59 minutes ago, GG said:

 

There's a higher probability that he knows a lot more than what he's been saying publicly.

 

 

It sort of reminds me of all those articles and twitter comments from journalists when refer to Trump's statements when he makes them "Without evidence", "not confirmed" , implying that he's full of *****.

 

And then months or even sometimes years later it turns out that he was correct.  Yet there are no retractions of these articles.

30 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Mortality rate remains the wrong measure for reopening now that we have a better sense of it. Hospital ICU capacity will remain the limiting resource from this point forward. 

 

 

There is no "right" measure, there should be various metrics that are viewed and mortality rate certainly is an important one.

[IDBillzFan]

2 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

The virus story is done! Stick a fork in it. We’re moving on to the political snarking and blame game. Good times!

 

Quick! Someone wake up Joe and tell him it's time to get his finger on the pulse of America!

 

And when you do this, remind him that by pulse we don't mean vahgina, and by America we don't mean female Biden staffers!

[shoshin]

3 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

 

It sort of reminds me of all those articles and twitter comments from journalists when refer to Trump's statements when he makes them "Without evidence", "not confirmed" , implying that he's full of *****.

 

And then months or even sometimes years later it turns out that he was correct.  Yet there are no retractions of these articles.

 

 

There is no "right" measure, there should be various metrics that are viewed and mortality rate certainly is an important one.

 

The point now, IMO, is that mortality rate is something we will trail on knowing for a while but have a decent bead on, and especially mortality rate for a bunch of at risk people. 

 

Hospitalization is a really good measure through phased reopening. The Trump guideline of % positive test trend going down is OK...it's trying to get at the fact that we have inadequate testing, but I don't love that one. 

[Magox]

6 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Which time? 

 

I don't know.  My guess is and it's only a guess because clearly we aren't privy to that information is that they suspect that the Virus did come from the lab.  But that it's not "man-made" so to speak and that somehow it escaped.

3 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

The point now, IMO, is that mortality rate is something we will trail on knowing for a while but have a decent bead on, and especially mortality rate for a bunch of at risk people. 

 

Hospitalization is a really good measure through phased reopening. The Trump guideline of % positive test trend going down is OK...it's trying to get at the fact that we have inadequate testing, but I don't love that one. 

 

I think our difference lies on the emphasis of mortality rates.   I'm not making the case of one being more important over the other and if I were in the decision making process I would be looking at numerous subsets of data to make that determination.  Mortality rates based off of the information that has been gathered would be one of those metrics and for me, it's an important one.  In regards to Hospitalization utilization rates, ICU, definitely would be another one since it goes back to the original stated goal of "flattening the curve".  Can our hospital systems provide the care our patients need in case of a surge of new hospitalizations?  

[IDBillzFan]

30 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

I see minimal harm in trying HCQ, but I ain't listenin to that quack. 

 

 

You have a curious rhetoric about you. But you would be foolish to disregard the tweet Buffalo Gal posted if, in fact, there is a NE nursing home where all 30 cases were treated with HCQ and the patients were saved. 

 

Why isn't it being reported?

 

I don't give credence to anything that comes out of the piehole that is Bill Nye The Actor Guy, but if he's standing in front of a burning building and he's telling me the building behind him is burning...y'know...maybe he's right at a time when it actually matters.

[shoshin]

4 minutes ago, IDBillzFan said:

 

You have a curious rhetoric about you. But you would be foolish to disregard the tweet Buffalo Gal posted if, in fact, there is a NE nursing home where all 30 cases were treated with HCQ and the patients were saved. 

 

Why isn't it being reported?

 

I don't give credence to anything that comes out of the piehole that is Bill Nye The Actor Guy, but if he's standing in front of a burning building and he's telling me the building behind him is burning...y'know...maybe he's right at a time when it actually matters.

 

If it's true, great, but I'm going to slide the vibration/magnetic resonance/silver healing guy to the side for now. 

[Koko78]

2 hours ago, ALF said:

China pushes back against US claims that coronavirus originated from Wuhan lab

 

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Sunday in an interview with ABC that there was "enormous evidence" Covid-19 originated in a laboratory in the Chinese city of Wuhan, where the outbreak was first detected last December. He did not provide details to support the claim.

Responding to Pompeo's comments, China's state owned Global Times newspaper said in an editorial Monday that the former CIA director had "stunned the world with groundless accusations."

"Since Pompeo said his claims are supported by 'enormous evidence,' then he should present this so-called evidence to the world, and especially to the American public who he continually tries to fool," the editorial said.

"The truth is that Pompeo does not have any evidence, and during Sunday's interview, he was bluffing."

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/asia/china-us-coronavirus-spat-intl-hnk/index.html

 

We all know that it originated in a US Army bio weapons lab, and was secretly transported to the wet market in Wuhan to infect the poor innocent completely-blameless Chinese. It's so blatantly obvious, that the Chinese don't even need to prove it!

[3rdnlng]

31 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Which time? 

Nanker has been a long term well respected poster here. Cut him some slack. It's not like he spews the crap every hour that some newbies do. 

[Chef Jim]

2 hours ago, BillStime said:

Examples of liberate hate?

See this is how it’s done. If I had time (some of us are essential) I’d copy a ***** ton of hateful posts by the lefties here.  And as I said I witnessed it first hand living in the  Bay Area. The anger on display there was astounding. 

[SoCal Deek]

49 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE NUMBERS LOOK THIS WAY NATIONWIDE: 

 

Illinois: Elderly care facilities have accounted for 44% of the state’s coronavirus deaths and nearly one in seven confirmed cases, according to a Sun-Times count.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bingo! It doesn’t take a genius to read the stats. I was thrilled to hear the President make this same point last night. Why the Scarf Queen has been sitting on the data for weeks and weeks is beyond me. A whole bunch of this drama could’ve been avoided had we just quarantined OLD PEOPLE! 

[Kemp]

20 minutes ago, IDBillzFan said:

 

Quick! Someone wake up Joe and tell him it's time to get his finger on the pulse of America!

 

And when you do this, remind him that by pulse we don't mean vahgina, and by America we don't mean female Biden staffers!

 

You couldn't make this up. Supporters of a man who brags about grabbing pussies, who has at least 20 women who have accused him of rape and other acts, who was banging a porn star while his wife was pregnant, is attempting to project Biden as sleaze.

 

Only a member of the Trump cult could say this without laughing. How stupid can someone be?

 

Stupid enough to proclaim a man as smart even after he suggests scientists should look into injecting bleach into the body to clean the lungs. 

 

If these same fan boys saw a Dem do this they would be all over it. What a bunch of phonies. Granted, some actually believe what they're saying. Either way, you have to admire their blatant idiocy. 

[shoshin]

10 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

Nanker has been a long term well respected poster here. Cut him some slack. It's not like he spews the crap every hour that some newbies do. 

“Which time” was not directed at Nanker. 
 

Regarding Nanker, any error is fine of course. 11 deaths listed by state was straight out of bizzarro land. 

[Q-baby!]

4 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

See this is how it’s done. If I had time (some of us are essential) I’d copy a ***** ton of hateful posts by the lefties here.  And as I said I witnessed it first hand living in the  Bay Area. The anger on display there was astounding. 

???

[dubs]

4 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

You couldn't make this up. Supporters of a man who brags about grabbing pussies, who has at least 20 women who have accused him of rape and other acts, who was banging a porn star while his wife was pregnant, is attempting to project Biden as sleaze.

 

Only a member of the Trump cult could say this without laughing. How stupid can someone be?

 

Stupid enough to proclaim a man as smart even after he suggests scientists should look into injecting bleach into the body to clean the lungs. 

 

If these same fan boys saw a Dem do this they would be all over it. What a bunch of phonies. Granted, some actually believe what they're saying. Either way, you have to admire their blatant idiocy. 

ummm, if Donald Trump is sleazy does that mean that Joe Biden is not sleazy?  Is there only one sleazy person in the world?

 

 

Edited May 4, 2020 by dubs

[billsfan1959]

1 hour ago, BillStime said:

 

 

You shouldn't project your sexual desires for Trump onto other people. It's not a healthy way to deal with them.

 

Own it girl

 

7 minutes ago, Kemp said:

Stupid enough to proclaim a man as smart even after he suggests scientists should look into injecting bleach into the body to clean the lungs. 

 

Not stupid (or drunk) enough for this sentence to make sense

 

 

Edited May 4, 2020 by billsfan1959

[B-Man]

U.S. CORONAVIRUS DEATHS, PART ONE: THE NEW YORK/NURSING HOME ANGLE

According to Worldometer, almost 25,000 of the approximately 68,000 deaths in the U.S. attributed to the Wuhan coronavirus have occurred in New York state. If one adds the death counts of the two other states with suburbs of New York City — New Jersey and Connecticut — just about half of the U.S. deaths are accounted for.

 

A great many of the remaining deaths occurred in nursing homes. I haven’t seen the recent nationwide percentage. However, according to this report “deaths at long-term care facilities now account for 44 percent, up from just over a third last week, of all coronavirus fatalities in the state [of Illinois].”

 

Similarly, “more than 40 percent of coronavirus-related deaths in Texas have been linked to nursing homes and assisted living centers — a spike from just 30 percent two weeks ago.” And in Minnesota, it has been reported that “80 percent of known COVID deaths take place in long-term care.”

If one factors out deaths in New York and the two states that surround New York City, and then factors out nursing home deaths using a 40 percent figure, the U.S. death count is in the neighborhood of 20,000.

 

I don’t mean to minimize the seriousness of this pandemic. New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey lives matter. So do the lives of people in nursing homes. And the loss of life among people outside of these categories continues to mount.

 

However, the pattern of coronavirus deaths has been evident for quite some time. It should have better informed the response to the pandemic. Had it done so, the nation would have adopted a more targeted, less blunderbuss response, and the U.S. economy would likely be in considerably better shape.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Reality Check]

1 hour ago, BillStime said:

 

[B-Man]

U.S. CORONAVIRUS DEATHS, PART TWO: THE ANDREW CUOMO ANGLE

Earlier today, I showed that New York state, the two other states that surround New York City, and nursing homes in the rest of America probably account for around two-thirds of the U.S. coronavirus death total. A focus on New York and nursing homes yields a common denominator: Andrew Cuomo.

 

Cuomo is governor of the state that accounts for about 37 percent of U.S. coronavirus deaths. This statistic by itself isn’t enough to condemn him. Nor are imperfections in the state’s response to the pandemic, although if you’re a Democrat, imperfections in the U.S. response are enough to condemn President Trump.

 

But consider this: Cuomo did not put New York on lockdown until March 20. This was three days after the Trump administration issued its guidelines for slowing the spread of the coronavirus. It was just a few days before states with much less to fear from the virus (e.g., Illinois, Ohio, and New Mexico) locked down. If the Trump administration was laggardly, as critics claim, Cuomo was worse.

 

Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, former head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and former commissioner of the city’s Health Department, says that if the state and city had adopted widespread social-distancing measures a week or two earlier, including closing schools, stores, and restaurants, the estimated death toll from the outbreak might have been reduced by 50 to 80 percent. Instead, New York mandated those measures after localities in states including California and Washington had done so.

 

More at the link:

 

 

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

6 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

You couldn't make this up. Supporters of a man who brags about grabbing pussies, who has at least 20 women who have accused him of rape and other acts, who was banging a porn star while his wife was pregnant, is attempting to project Biden as sleaze.

 

Only a member of the Trump cult could say this without laughing. How stupid can someone be?

 

Stupid enough to proclaim a man as smart even after he suggests scientists should look into injecting bleach into the body to clean the lungs. 

 

If these same fan boys saw a Dem do this they would be all over it. What a bunch of phonies. Granted, some actually believe what they're saying. Either way, you have to admire their blatant idiocy. 

Nah nah nah ho-ho-ho'don a second.  Your stunning, almost incalculable hypocrisy while pledging you support to a person who is a gross caricature of a powerful Washington insider who has taken liberties with women for decades, and stands accused of a horrific crime against a female member of his team, not withstanding, your story has evolved. 

 

You suggested previously that President Trump told people to inject the bleach themselves.  Now you're suggesting he commissioned scientists "look into it".  

 

Which was the lie?  Check the transcript of your PresidentTrump's comments and let us know. It should be easy. 

 

 

 

[Magox]

6 minutes ago, B-Man said:

U.S. CORONAVIRUS DEATHS, PART TWO: THE ANDREW CUOMO ANGLE

Earlier today, I showed that New York state, the two other states that surround New York City, and nursing homes in the rest of America probably account for around two-thirds of the U.S. coronavirus death total. A focus on New York and nursing homes yields a common denominator: Andrew Cuomo.

 

Cuomo is governor of the state that accounts for about 37 percent of U.S. coronavirus deaths. This statistic by itself isn’t enough to condemn him. Nor are imperfections in the state’s response to the pandemic, although if you’re a Democrat, imperfections in the U.S. response are enough to condemn President Trump.

 

But consider this: Cuomo did not put New York on lockdown until March 20. This was three days after the Trump administration issued its guidelines for slowing the spread of the coronavirus. It was just a few days before states with much less to fear from the virus (e.g., Illinois, Ohio, and New Mexico) locked down. If the Trump administration was laggardly, as critics claim, Cuomo was worse.

 

Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, former head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and former commissioner of the city’s Health Department, says that if the state and city had adopted widespread social-distancing measures a week or two earlier, including closing schools, stores, and restaurants, the estimated death toll from the outbreak might have been reduced by 50 to 80 percent. Instead, New York mandated those measures after localities in states including California and Washington had done so.

 

More at the link:

 

 

 

 

Cuomo I believe has been an excellent communicator.  He gives the sort of power point presentations to the public in a fact based manner and personally speaking, it's my sort of communication sytle.

 

With that said, he has not done well on the substance.  Never mind the words, because all politicians got it wrong on the words even guys like Fauci.  So I'll give him a pass on that, but he was late to the game on the shut downs, his insistence to keep the MTA open which in studies are showing was a major cause of the transmission of the VIRUS.  Then he didn't even have an effective sanitization policy on the MTA's until just the other day.   And what will arguably go down as possibly his worst decision was the Nursing home policy.  That was a fatal error.

 

All of these are significant problems and people who judge history in a non biased manner will not reflect so kindly on him.

[Deranged Rhino]

27 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

You couldn't make this up. Supporters of a man who brags about grabbing pussies, who has at least 20 women who have accused him of rape and other acts, who was banging a porn star while his wife was pregnant, is attempting to project Biden as sleaze.

 

Biden actually grabbed a woman by the *****. 

 

But he's not a sleaze? 

 

Kemp, proving again how dishonest and bankrupt he is as a person. If he's not trying (and failing) to doxx someone for disagreeing with him, he's MINDLESSLY spouting talking points without thinking through them. 

 

Because Kemp is a real dumb person with nothing to offer. 

[Warren Zevon]

[Magox]

Isn't there a single left leaning poster who consistently posts on here that can actually make a good argument?  

 

DC Tom said it years ago, the righties on this board intellectually dominate the lefties.

 

Since I have come back, that is has become evidently clear.