The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Taro T]

4 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

Yup. I would not believe anything coming out of China. Not cases numbers, deaths, recovery, protocols... nuthin’.

 

 

 

And, unless they are ABSOLUTELY the only provider of medicine / equipment, wouldn't accept any "aid" from them either.

[TPS]

1 hour ago, GG said:

 

Again, Italy appears to be a huge outlier relative to everywhere else, and really shouldn't be used as the sample.

So Spain is an outlier too?  Possibly France, if your metric is critical or severity of cases.

[IDBillzFan]

9 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

Yup. I would not believe anything coming out of China. Not cases numbers, deaths, recovery, protocols... nuthin’.

 

 

 

Morning Joe is so excited posting about this, he forgot to bury a dead intern in his office.

[3rdnlng]

3 hours ago, TH3 said:

Pretty soon someone with a twitter account can post "Dude on backwater forum who thought CV 19 was a bioweapon white hat blah blah blah....now understands it wasn't" 

I think some dude on a backwater forum might talk about a guy who ingested fish tank cleaner in order to prevent him from getting a virus. It won't be you though because you believed the story and posted it, hook, line and sinker boy. 

[billsfan1959]

30 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

It will likely go higher as NYC hospitals become overwhelmed.

 

I heard Cuomo say that on average patients spend 5 to 11 days hooked up to a ventilator.

 

The major concern is that when hospitals run out of ventilators (as they did in Italy), new patients who turn critical will be left to die because the only way to survive at that point is to be hooked up to one. 

 

This is the whole reason people have been asked to socially distance themselves so that everyone doesn't get sick at the same time and completely incapacitate the healthcare system. 

 

Italy's hospitals got over run.

 

So far that hasn't happened in the US, but it likely will in certain spots within the next week or so. 

 

The number of infected people is still doubling about every 3 days. 

 

A few days ago I said there'd be 16,000 cases today simply based off the math (up from 8,000). As things stand that looks pretty likely given the stats out so far today. 

 

The main question is in 3 days will there be 32,000 new cases? If so there's absolutely no chance Trump can try to reopen the country at Easter. 

Well, let’s just see how things go. No sense in predicting what we don’t know.

[Bob in Mich]

7 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

And, unless they are ABSOLUTELY the only provider of medicine / equipment, wouldn't accept any "aid" from them either.

Our hospitals in NY are about to be be overwhelmed. I would accept help from Satan at this point. 

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, GG said:

 

Again, Italy appears to be a huge outlier relative to everywhere else, and really shouldn't be used as the sample.

 

Italy, Spain and perhaps other areas are not outliers. They are lessons about what happens when the medical system collapses under the onslaught of bodies. Let's hope that doesn't happen in NYC or anywhere else here or in any other country. 

 

Italy was an outlier at 4% maybe because of age. It jumped to 8-9% once the hospitals got overloaded. 

 

 

[3rdnlng]

3 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

Fusion/CIA Ken gets his talking points jumbled again. 

I hope it wasn't test kits, what with their 80% failure rate. 

[IDBillzFan]

3 minutes ago, Bob in Mich said:

I would accept help from Satan at this point. 

 

Someone should call Bill and see if she's available.

[RochesterRob]

3 minutes ago, Bob in Mich said:

Our hospitals in NY are about to be be overwhelmed. I would accept help from Satan at this point. 

  You do know that Satan only makes deals that favors himself substantially?  

[Taro T]

4 minutes ago, Bob in Mich said:

Our hospitals in NY are about to be be overwhelmed. I would accept help from Satan at this point. 

 

The reports out of the Czech Republic are that their test kits have an 80% failure rate.  (i.e., you'd be better off assuming the opposite of what the test results are) and out of Spain that their test kits are getting better with only a 30% failure rate.

 

That kind of "help" ain't help. 

[RochesterRob]

Just now, IDBillzFan said:

 

Someone should call Bill and see if she's available.

  Even better response.  She just sent some facility pizza so she is probably all done at this point.  Not like she could do something useful like being a door wedge block or hold a window open.

[3rdnlng]

2 hours ago, Kevbeau said:

Same with me. I figured the employment numbers would have been enough to keep the downward trend going

Those numbers were already taken into account previously. The stock market is controlled by what people think is going to happen not what has already happened. 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

21 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

Well, let’s just see how things go. No sense in predicting what we don’t know.

 

Right well see how thing's go. Perfect words for today and might be next couple days.

 

 

[Doc Brown]

2 hours ago, jrober38 said:

By the end of the day the US will have the most COVID-19 cases in the world.

 

However the rate of which new cases is doubling seems to have slowed down slightly which is positive. 

We have the world's third largest population and you can at least double China's reported cases.  The only true metric after all this is over to determine the US's response to the virus is coronavirus related deaths per capita compared to other democratic countries.  Even then there's so any other variables to be able to draw firm conclusions.  

Edited March 26, 2020 by Doc Brown

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

27 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Italy, Spain and perhaps other areas are not outliers. They are lessons about what happens when the medical system collapses under the onslaught of bodies. Let's hope that doesn't happen in NYC or anywhere else here or in any other country. 

 

Italy was an outlier at 4% maybe because of age. It jumped to 8-9% once the hospitals got overloaded. 

 

 

 

Totality agree with this.

2 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

We have the world's third largest population and you can at least double their cases.  The only true metric after all this is over to determine the US's response to the virus is coronavirus related deaths per capita compared to other democratic countries.  Even then there's so any other variables to be able to draw firm conclusions.  

 

This virus can be tricky, might be good and healthy few days than get to ICU level. Some worst at worst on start.  Plus more cases around the USA coming days.  Deadliest day so far .

 

My words is well see what happens next few days. 

Edited March 26, 2020 by Buffalo Bills Fan

[CarpetCrawler]

9 hours ago, Gary Busey said:

 

Germany has done an insane amount of testing per person when compared with the US. Their numbers are and should be much higher because Germany has been aggressively testing since day 1. Their death rate, though, is less than half a percentage point which is good in comparison with other countries.

If the US did an "insane amount" of testing, our death rate would drop too. The numerator is easy to track, the denominator varies based on testing and reliable results.

Edited March 26, 2020 by CarpetCrawler

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

 

[jrober38]

52 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

Well, let’s just see how things go. No sense in predicting what we don’t know.

 

We do know where it's going to some extent.

 

Maybe not exactly, but all the experts on this subject matter expect it to get exponentially worse over the coming weeks. 

 

If by Monday night the US sees 30,000 new cases there will be hundreds of people dying every day. 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

 

Dr. Fauci is awesome lol

 

[CarpetCrawler]

7 hours ago, GG said:

 

The obvious reason is to control the black market for these scripts.  Don't want it to turn into another oxy fiasco with unscrupulous MDs and pharmacists  

Wouldn't banning prescriptions increase the black market value and the chance that unscrupulous doctors write bogus prescriptions? It you can't get it through scrupulous sources how else will you get it?

[Buffalo_Gal]

 

[billsfan1959]

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

We do know where it's going to some extent.

 

Maybe not exactly, but all the experts on this subject matter expect it to get exponentially worse over the coming weeks. 

 

If by Monday night the US sees 30,000 new cases there will be hundreds of people dying every day. 

Why are you so preoccupied with doomsday scenarios? Just in this thread you have predicted hospitals will be overwhelmed, people will be dying in the hallways, and millions and millions of people will die.

 

Honestly, you have no idea on earth what will happen, so why do you consciously choose to go there?

Edited March 26, 2020 by billsfan1959

[Gary M]

5 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

Yup. So much of the past several weeks don't really add up. There's a lot we're not being told is my bet. 

 

I was thinking that they were holding back info too, until the noon presser.

 

It dawn on me that they have been telling us right from the start.

 

We don't have the medical infrastructure to handle the number of patients that we would have had if they hadn't limited interaction. How many of the deaths in Italy are now because they are overwhelmed?

 

If this thing really lives as long as they are saying (17 days) can you imagine how many people could be infected by a single shopping cart?

[TPS]

3 hours ago, GG said:

 

You must be using a different definition of accelerating, because the increase in US daily cases has declined from the 40% range to under 20%.  That's the number that the "experts" focused on when they were screaming about the pandemic spread and throwing out doomsday scenarios.  There may be a slight uptick in US growth due to spikes In LA, and MA, but that also means that NY growth is slowing big time.

 

In any event focusing on cases misses the bigger picture of the severity of the infections, which is far more important, and is also getting better in NY.

 

But fear mongering works far better, doesn't it?

 

Yeah, no big deal...

As I believe you have argued on other issues, 40% from a low base vs 20% from a high base.  So, 40% at 10,000 cases vs 20% at 100,000 cases is a difference of 16,000 more in the latter.  The metric should be focused on the when the number cases (you can focus on severe, but there is a good relation between the two) per day is starting to decline.  We are not close to getting to a situation in most urban areas where we can get back to business as usual.  The guy just can't help himself though to focus on that...

[IDBillzFan]

 

24 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

Maybe not exactly, but all the experts on this subject matter expect it to get exponentially worse over the coming weeks. 

 

Who, exactly, are these experts and where are you getting their data?

 

Don't mean to be prodding, but I've spent years hearing how 'all the experts on this subject matter' insist global warming will destroy the earth in 12 years.

 

So, please show your work if you don't mind.

[B-Man]

 

 

COMMENTER BART HALL POSTED ON FACEBOOK:

 

Truckers are saying “***** the log rules, I’m hauling” and they’re getting supplies to the stores. People are stocking the shelves all night and letting old people shop first. Folks are buying meals for truckers, who (obviously) can’t go through the drive-ups. Asking ’em what they want, then buying it for them.

 

Carnival Cruise Line has told Trump “We can match those big Navy Hospital ships with some fully staffed cruise ships”.

 

GM and Ford have said “hold our cars and watch this — we can make ventilators where we were just making car parts, starting next week” — by re-engineering seat ventilators which their engineers hacked together for a new purpose. In under a week.

 

In a project with which I’m loosely associated, a very-effective agricultural disease-control agent was re-purposed and re-labeled specifically for Corona-virus control by the FDA and EPA in under ten days, from initial request to distribution.

 

Restaurants and schools have said, “we’ve got kitchens and staff; we can feed the poor kids who used have school lunch.”

 

NBA basketball players have said, “Hold our basketballs while we write checks to pay the arena staff.”

 

Construction companies are saying, “Here are some high-end masks for medical staff and doctors”.

 

Distilleries are making sanitizer out of distilling “heads and tails” which are normally discarded. Nasty ***** to drink, but effective sanitizer.

People are tipping grocery check-out clerks and thanking them for taking the risk.

 

Local, state, and county governments are taking control of everything the feds cannot do. Some are doing it wrong, but for the first time in decades … they’re doing it. Federalism is re-emerging, and the smallest unit of government is the individual and the family. This, too, is re-emerging after decades of dormancy.

 

As Japanese Admiral Isokuru Yamamoto said, after Pearl Harbor … “I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.”

 

I sense this has just happened. We have a wonderful country, the greatest single force for good in all human history.

 

We have closed our borders, with good reason, yet we have top medical people now assisting North Korea in their response to the virus.

 

Many things have been re-set, and will never be the same.

 

By microbiological accident, we are living in profoundly transformative historical times.

 

 

 

Indeed we are.

 

https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/362781/

 

.

 

[SoCal Deek]

I just did something I urge everyone do when you have a few minutes. I first went back to the very beginning of this thread, on January 23rd...by Hedge. Then I went back a few pages to the old Impeachment trial thread to see what the congress, was focused on that day. On January 23rd the Democrats were fumbling their opening arguments in their waste of time impeachment circus! Unbelievably irresponsible behavior by these geniuses that surely getting intelligence briefings about what was happening in China on the SAME DAY!!!. Now we know that Nancy, Adam, Chuck and Jerry simply didn’t care! In fact Nancy’s infamous stunt to delay bringing the articles pushed the entire circus right into the heart of the Covid 19 danger zone. Nice work from those we’re all being told to listen to now. Ugh!

[CarpetCrawler]

5 hours ago, Rob's House said:

 

Why ask why?

 

Trust Dems' lies.

That would make a great slogan, the next time Pelosi or Schumer set up a bogus press conference I would love to be there and start chanting that.

[Deranged Rhino]

4 hours ago, 32ABBA said:

Yes, the rest of the world is looking to China for leadership and vision.

 

Ken Dilanian -"based in DC. Former AP, LA Times, USA TODAY, Philly Inquirer. Williams College".....know the enemy.

 

To your point: 

 

 

*******************

 

 

[CarpetCrawler]

2 hours ago, Bob in Mich said:

Our hospitals in NY are about to be be overwhelmed. I would accept help from Satan at this point. 

Same thing pretty much.

[Warren Zevon]

1 hour ago, CarpetCrawler said:

If the US did an "insane amount" of testing, our death rate would drop too. The numerator is easy to track, the denominator varies based on testing and reliable results.

 

It sure would. That's what we need to get back to work!

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[TPS]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

I just did something I urge everyone do when you have a few minutes. I first went back to the very beginning of this thread, on January 23rd...by Hedge. Then I went back a few pages to the old Impeachment trial thread to see what the congress, was focused on that day. On January 23rd the Democrats were fumbling their opening arguments in their waste of time impeachment circus! Unbelievably irresponsible behavior by these geniuses that surely getting intelligence briefings about what was happening in China on the SAME DAY!!!. Now we know that Nancy, Adam, Chuck and Jerry simply didn’t care! In fact Nancy’s infamous stunt to delay bringing the articles pushed the entire circus right into the heart of the Covid 19 danger zone. Nice work from those we’re all being told to listen to now. Ugh!

The president oversees the departments that respond to this, but carry on...

5 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

Yes, it will take the heat off the administration's poor response after closing off China.

[Warren Zevon]

***** you coronavirus 

 

[Uncle Joe]

2 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

***** you coronavirus 

 

Now you did it! 
I miss the Yankees.

[GG]

1 hour ago, TPS said:

Yeah, no big deal...

As I believe you have argued on other issues, 40% from a low base vs 20% from a high base.  So, 40% at 10,000 cases vs 20% at 100,000 cases is a difference of 16,000 more in the latter.  The metric should be focused on the when the number cases (you can focus on severe, but there is a good relation between the two) per day is starting to decline.  We are not close to getting to a situation in most urban areas where we can get back to business as usual.  The guy just can't help himself though to focus on that...

 

Rate of growth is very important because that's what all the doomsday predictions were based on.  Remember Petayo's petri dish example of the culture eventually taking over the entire dish?  The figure everyone clings to is 30% growth, so getting to below 20% is huge.  Heck you still have people talking about exponential growth, when data says otherwise.

 

Did you notice how the negative conversation suddenly changed from NY to USA?  Could it be that New York cases slowed down in absolute numbers and rate of growth.  Now other states are growing faster, and that's contributed to rising infections in the US.  There's reason to believe that NY will soon hit a peak and attention should turn to other areas.

 

But the blueprint could be in front of us.  Stay home for two weeks.  If you venture out, wear a mask and gloves and keep your distance from other people.

[Warren Zevon]

7 minutes ago, Uncle Joe said:

Now you did it! 
I miss the Yankees.

 

I am a true Yankee hater (go figure - but I hate Boston too) but holy ***** do I miss baseball today. My favorite day of the year

[billsfan1959]

20 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

 

I am a true Yankee hater (go figure - but I hate Boston too) but holy ***** do I miss baseball today. My favorite day of the year

 

I've been a Yankee fan since I was a kid. Just out of curiosity, what team do you root for?

[Kevbeau]

1 hour ago, IDBillzFan said:

 

 

Who, exactly, are these experts and where are you getting their data?

 

Don't mean to be prodding, but I've spent years hearing how 'all the experts on this subject matter' insist global warming will destroy the earth in 12 years.

 

So, please show your work if you don't mind.

He also quoted a governor saying the “average” time on a ventilator is 5 to 11 days. Do people know what the **** an average is?