Special K Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 I asked this question after the Ravens game, and since the score and scenario were exactly the same in this game, I thought it would be fun. In the Ravens game, I was a definite yes, however in this game I was leaning towards no, but could see the merits of doing so, especially if there was very little time left in regulation(not enough time for the Cheats to drive and score). What say you??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bookie Man Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 I would. But I don't think they would. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 Yes. Our offense seems to be good in those situations. I'd just go for the win. I get that they're playing for the division title and maybe a slight edge in the playoffs, but both teams are already going to the dance and this game didn't need to be any longer. I want everyone healthy for the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CincyBillsFan Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 So you jinxed us by asking this BEFORE we scored? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 Does any NFL team ever do this in an important game? Its like you are saying that you have limited confidence in your team to win the game in OT.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 1. I don't think they would have. 2. I don't think I would have. 3. There is a decent if not good argument to go for it, if you think you will make it 50% of the time ONLY because you are playing NE who wins at the end and gets all the calls all the time. 4. WTF was Bellichick thinking NOT taking a penalty and going for two from the one instead of the two, just to gain 15 yards on the KO which means nothing. That was a terrible decision even though they made it 1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said: Does any NFL team ever do this in an important game? Its like you are saying that you have limited confidence in your team to win the game in OT.. Lately they have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCBills Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 Normally I think we kick the extra point in that spot, but I don’t know if we had any desire to go to OT in an 80% meaningless game re: playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Kelly the Dog said: Lately they have. Can you refresh my memory? Not saying that it never happens... I think the Jags went for it earlier this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 The Dolphins did it against the Jets this year. I'm pretty sure another team did too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 Just now, Kelly the Dog said: The Dolphins did it against the Jets this year. I'm pretty sure another team did too. Yeah.. I did say “important” game.. Not a game between bottom feeders so we can get out of Dodge as quick as we possible.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 21 minutes ago, Special K said: I asked this question after the Ravens game, and since the score and scenario were exactly the same in this game, I thought it would be fun. In the Ravens game, I was a definite yes, however in this game I was leaning towards no, but could see the merits of doing so, especially if there was very little time left in regulation(not enough time for the Cheats to drive and score). What say you??? *Possession* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said: Yeah.. I did say “important” game.. Not a game between bottom feeders so we can get out of Dodge as quick as we possible.. Got ya. Yeah, it's rare. I'm not a conservative guy but I would rarely do it. But as I said just above because the Pats are so good at scoring when they need to and they get all the calls maybe it's smart to try to win on one play, especially because of the way Josh can run. This may have been exactly the time to buck the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike in Horseheads Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 Yes, a tie game didn't win the division, go for the win. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said: Got ya. Yeah, it's rare. I'm not a conservative guy but I would rarely do it. But as I said just above because the Pats are so good at scoring when they need to and they get all the calls maybe it's smart to try to win on one play, especially because of the way Josh can run. This may have been exactly the time to buck the trend. Fair enough... To me it’s like flipping a coin... Too much chance involved, and a bad way to lose.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 Nope. Why lose it right there instead of giving yourself a chance to win in overtime? Chances of scoring a two point conversion are worse than a coin flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
devldog131 Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 (edited) Absolutely not. While getting the win right then and there would be great, you don't pass up a tie score for a 50/50 (at best) proposition. Going for two there would have been a horrible coaching decision regardless of the outcome, even if they were successful. Edited December 22, 2019 by devldog131 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, MJS said: Nope. Why lose it right there instead of giving yourself a chance to win in overtime? Chances of scoring a two point conversion are worse than a coin flip. Because the Patriots almost always score when they need to? Different from all 31 other teams? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 Just now, Kelly the Dog said: Because the Patriots almost always score when they need to? Different from all 31 other teams? There is a coin toss involved right in OT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 Just now, Aussie Joe said: There is a coin toss involved right in OT? No. I'm saying against any other team you likely go to overtime. Against them, maybe you go for the 50-50 chance of scoring the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan692 Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 50 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: Does any NFL team ever do this in an important game? Its like you are saying that you have limited confidence in your team to win the game in OT.. Not really that important to us. We had no reason not to let it all hang out there today and to be super aggressive knowing that we are already clinched and never have an opportunity like this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, BillsFan692 said: Not really that important to us. We had no reason not to let it all hang out there today and to be super aggressive knowing that we are already clinched and never have an opportunity like this one. Really? the game wasn’t important to us? Too important to let it come down to a low percentage 2 pt play in my view.. 7 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said: No. I'm saying against any other team you likely go to overtime. Against them, maybe you go for the 50-50 chance of scoring the two. I’ll take the 97 per cent chance to send it to OT by kicking the EP.. My point about the coin toss in OT is that if it goes your way, there is a chance the Pats never even touch the ball again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan692 Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 12 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: Really? the game wasn’t important to us? Too important to let it come down to a low percentage 2 pt play in my view.. I’ll take the 97 per cent chance to send it to OT by kicking the EP.. My point about the coin toss in OT is that if it goes your way, there is a chance the Pats never even touch the ball again.. Not that important for us to be so conservative. It was the patriots that had everything to lose and us with everything to gain. It should have been them playing it safe and conservative (belichick too smart for that never would).... McDermott looked foolish. Like he didnt understand the situation or the opportunity. To be honest im not sure he DESERVES coach of the year . He has done really well but he has one more step to take and I dont think he has learned how yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyC81 Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 1 hour ago, SCBills said: Normally I think we kick the extra point in that spot, but I don’t know if we had any desire to go to OT in an 80% meaningless game re: playoffs. What are you talking about 80% meaningless? A win gave them a shot at the division and a chance at the #2 seed and 1st round bye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, ColeB said: What are you talking about 80% meaningless? A win gave them a shot at the division and a chance at the #2 seed and 1st round bye Which is why you gamble in this game to win if you can at the end. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Kelly the Dog said: The Dolphins did it against the Jets this year. I'm pretty sure another team did too. You’re right. Plenty of teams have lately. Although I’m usually in favor of going for 2, I probably would not have there. We ran the ball poorly all night and I think the odds would have favored the pats stuffing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Process Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 In the Ravens game I would have. In this game, no. I agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 9 minutes ago, mannc said: You’re right. Plenty of teams have lately. Although I’m usually in favor of going for 2, I probably would not have there. We ran the ball poorly all night and I think the odds would have favored the pats stuffing it. Like I said earlier... what teams are going for it that aren’t involved in Tank Bowls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estro Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 The smart answer is YES....... 1. The Patriots offense was getting the better of the Bills defense 2. The Bills offense was struggling for long stretches between the big plays 3. No need to risk injury and continue playing in OT Don't forget the Pats would've still had plenty of time to get into FG range and retake the lead......but you at least ensure no OT by going for 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 Just now, Aussie Joe said: Like I said earlier... what teams are going for it that aren’t involved in Tank Bowls? I ca t think of specific examples, but I’ve seen several teams do it this year. It’s generally a pretty good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 1 minute ago, mannc said: I ca t think of specific examples, but I’ve seen several teams do it this year. It’s generally a pretty good idea. Well come back to me when you have a specific example.. You said there are “plenty” right ? I disagree with your point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo716 Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 This is one of the few times where I would say yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: Well come back to me when you have a specific example.. You said there are “plenty” right ? I disagree with your point A few points here. 1. You're right and hardly anyone does it. 2. The only reason anyone would do it is, if you think the % of scoring one two yard play, is greater than the % of you going to overtime and winning. 3. Teams at home are way less likely to make that gamble than teams playing at home. BUT... To me... what is the norm of what every team would do or the odds should be thrown out the window when you are playing the Patriots. The percentage of times THEY score when they have to go the length of the field is WAY above the average team. It's not even close. And it's been true for 20 years. They're incredible at it so the chances against them in OT, especially at home, is WAY different than any other team. So your chance of winning on one two yard play against them, versus taking your chances against them in their stadium in OT may be way different than any other team. I think it is. Now that I think about it, I think it's a no brainer BETTER chance of one play from the two yard line than beating the Pats in OT in New England, which would be in the 30 percentile. Edited December 22, 2019 by Kelly the Dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 Just now, Kelly the Dog said: A few points here. 1. You're right and hardly anyone does it. 2. The only reason anyone would do it is, if you think the % of scoring one two yard play, is greater than the % of you going to overtime and winning. 3. Teams at home are way less likely to make that gamble than teams playing at home. BUT... To me... what is the normmor what every team would do or the odds should be thrown out the window when you are playing the Patriots. The percentage of times THEY score when they have to go the length of the field is WAY above the average team. It's not even close. And it's been true for 20 years. They're incredible at it so the chances against them in OT, especially at home, is WAY different than any other team. So your chance of winning on one two yard play against them, versus taking your chances against them in their stadium in OT may be way different than any other team. I think it is. Now that I think about it, I think it's a no brainer BETTER chance of one play from the two yard line than beating the Pats in OT in New England, which would be in the 30 percentile. thanks for your well thought out opinion which you are more than entitled too...Same as I am entitled to mine... I would suggest we both might agree however that McD is pretty unlikely to go for 2 in that situation given the conservatism he displays so it’s pretty much a moot point . I think he would have been much more likely to have gone for it on the 4th and less than 1 on one of the earlier 4th Quarter drives when he punted, then go for 2 in this hypothetical situation.. In respect of coaches/teams going for it generally in that situation... to be clear about my argument, there are examples but as per my original point these as far as I can recall been in pretty much unimportant game’s...If I have forgotten important games where this has happened then I am happy to be corrected... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: thanks for your well thought out opinion which you are more than entitled too...Same as I am entitled to mine... I would suggest we both might agree however that McD is pretty unlikely to go for 2 in that situation given the conservatism he displays so it’s pretty much a moot point . I think he would have been much more likely to have gone for it on the 4th and less than 1 on one of the earlier 4th Quarter drives when he punted, then go for 2 in this hypothetical situation.. In respect of coaches/teams going for it generally in that situation... to be clear about my argument, there are examples but as per my original point these as far as I can recall been in pretty much unimportant game’s...If I have forgotten important games where this has happened then I am happy to be corrected... No question. I think for sure that McDermott would have kicked it. It's possible I guess he would have gone for two but highly unlikely. My point was 99% of every game I personally would kick it, tie it, and go to overtime. BUT... the Pats are SO good at scoring when they need to, especially a FG, this may be the only situation where I would go for two right at the end. Every decision you make at any time is what gives you the best chance to win. One play at the two yard line for the Bills because of Josh's running ability is likely at least 50%. The chance you will beat them in OT on the road is likely less than 50%. So this may be the only team you go for two against. Because it gives you a better chance to win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Kelly the Dog said: Because the Patriots almost always score when they need to? Different from all 31 other teams? Then I guess we'd be doomed anyway, if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, MJS said: Then I guess we'd be doomed anyway, if that's the case. Why? Josh is excellent as a runner from 2 yards in. He can run or throw. Both Singletary and Gore are good for two yards. They have a very good record this year for red zone scoring from in close. They already scored earlier in the game from there. Why would we be doomed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said: Why? Josh is excellent as a runner from 2 yards in. He can run or throw. Both Singletary and Gore are good for two yards. They have a very good record this year for red zone scoring from in close. They already scored earlier in the game from there. Why would we be doomed? Because the Pats score when they need to, according to you. Sorry, but two point conversion at the end of the game, against the best defense in the league, with a below average offense, is a bad idea. Instant lost game. At least go to overtime and give yourself a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 8 minutes ago, MJS said: Because the Pats score when they need to, according to you. Sorry, but two point conversion at the end of the game, against the best defense in the league, with a below average offense, is a bad idea. Instant lost game. At least go to overtime and give yourself a shot. You're not very good at this, huh. You just said "Because the Pats score when they need to." That's the whole freakin' point! You don't give them that chance because they will score and beat you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cage Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 I've liked the strategy of going for the two in these situations for a long time. I have a Twitter list of Bills reporters that I follow during games (from WGR, TBN, Athletic, D&C,....) and the consensus in that group was also mostly to go for two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterpan Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 The cheaters would have went right back down the field and scored either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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