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Virgil

Bored - Offseason Speculation

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Great thread, enjoying it 

 

I want yannick in free agency, I believe he would take this D to the Elite of the elite level, assuming Phillip's is back.

 

For the draft, two possible scenarios I like:

 

Trade up for lamb and if we keep our second take okwara from ND

 

Or take simmons (love the idea) or the OT from Iowa in the first, grab Pittman in the second 

 

I also.wouldnt be opposed to Higgins or the kid from colorado in the first 

Edited by Jerboski

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5 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:


So, we can sign them to a tender, others can offer, but we can match or get compensation. Correct?

Edited by Virgil

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5 minutes ago, Virgil said:


So, we can sign them to a tender, others can offer, but we can match or get compensation. Correct?

I think we offer them a tender and they’re our property for a year and no one can offer a contract. But that’s where my interpretation of the rule gets hazy. 

 

RFA can get offers from other teams and we get compensation but I don’t think ERFA can. I’ll look for the rules

 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001021617/article/2019-nfl-free-agency-glossary-all-the-terms-you-need-to-know%3fnetworkId=4595&site=.news&zone=story&zoneUrl=url%3Dstory&zoneKeys=s1%3Dstory&env&pageKeyValues=prtnr%3Danalysis%3Bplyr%3Djoseph_flacco%3Bplyr%3Dcasey_keenum%3Bplyr%3Dshelby_harris&p.ct=Analysis&p.adsm=false&p.tcm=%23000&p.bgc1m=%23EAEAEA&sr=amp

 

“Exclusive rights free agent (ERFA): Any player with fewer than three accrued seasons and an expired contract. If his original team offers him a one-year contract and the league minimum (based on his credited seasons), the player cannot negotiate with other teams.”

 

Edited by Not at the table Karlos

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26 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

I like the formula of a young RB and a veteran RB.  I didn't see any FA RBs on your lists, but I wonder who's out there that would be a good fit to spell Singletary.

Don't forget we have Christian Wade who's been with the team all this year already learning the american game. And he"s been learning from a future HOFer Gore.  It will be interesting to learn how well he can play next preseason. He'll have an edge on any college rookies drafted if his rugby skills translate well over the course of the year with the Bills, added bonus he already knows our playbook and our culture.  

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49 minutes ago, elijah said:

If you’re not paying 8 for Levi you’re likely letting Levi walk 


Johnson is playing much better in my opinion

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I'd love to pick up this guy in the third round. Perfect complement to Singletary. 

 

Edited by BillsFanForReal

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7 minutes ago, offyourocker said:


Johnson is playing much better in my opinion


Johnson has the most potential, as he’s proved it. His injury history is what I think allows us to keep him for cheap.  If healthy for more than a season, he’s getting 10 mil easily.  
 

Wallace had a few bad games, but has overall played very well.  I’m more worried about losing him to someone else.  

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23 minutes ago, BakersDozen said:

Don't forget we have Christian Wade who's been with the team all this year already learning the american game. And he"s been learning from a future HOFer Gore.  It will be interesting to learn how well he can play next preseason. He'll have an edge on any college rookies drafted if his rugby skills translate well over the course of the year with the Bills, added bonus he already knows our playbook and our culture.  

 

I would LOVE for that kid to make the 53.  Singletary, Wade and a vet.

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1 hour ago, offyourocker said:

I would not pay 8 for Levi or 4.5 for Liuget or 3 for Coleman

No way Levi gets $8 mil for next year.  He's splitting time now as the season goes on and NOT a difference maker.

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1 hour ago, Virgil said:

I'll be honest, Bills are 9-3, don't play tomorrow, and I'm not dreading the rest of the season.  I have absolutely no idea what to do with myself right now.  So, I'm going to look at the current FA class, mock drafts, and our salary cap to have some fun.  Feel free to play along or dismiss and move on.

 

Salary Cap Space: 91 Million (26 mil in rollover, 1 mil in dead cap (Wow Beane!))

Draft Position:  25th (I'm giving us a first round win)

 

Current Starters - Unrestricted FA's: 

Jordan Phillips - Re-sign - 11 mil

Lorax (Retiring)

Kevin Johnson - Re-sign - 5 mil

Shaq Lawson - Let him test the market (probably not re-signed)

Quinton Spain - Re-Sign - 7 mil

Frank Gore - Let Go

Kurt Coleman - Re-Sign - 3 mil

Corey Liuget - Re-Sign - 4.5 mil

Dean Marlowe - Re-Sign - 2 mil

Isiah McKenzie - Re-Sign -  3 mil

Levi Wallace - Re-Sign - 8 mil

Robert Foster - Re-Sign - 3 mil

Duke Williams - Not enough room on roster, drafting a WR

Total Spent on Re-Signings = 46.5 Mil

 

Starting Players heading into last year of deal:

Trent Murphy - Cut (Save 7.2 Million.  Dead hit of 1.75 mil)

Ty Yeldon - Cut (Save 1.6 Mil.  Dead 250k)

Ty Nsekhe - Let play out

Jon Feliciano - Let Play Out

Jordan Poyer - Let Play Out

Tre White - Trigger 5th year option

Andre Roberts - Let Play Out

Patrick DiMarco - Let Play Out

Matt Barkley - Let Play Out

Dion Dawkins - Extend - 14 Mil per

Matt Milano - Extend - 8 Mil per

Corey Bojorquez - Let Play Out

Total Spent on Extensions - 13.2 Mil (with the cuts)

 

***Total Cap Remaining for Additional Free Agents - 31.2 mil

 

Positions of Interest:

OLB - Lorax is retiring

DE - Murphy and Shaq could be gone

WR - Need a big bodied #1

RB - Backup to Singletary

OLB/MLB - Depth

 

2020 Free Agents (In order of rank from NFL.com and projected contract from Spodrac)

OLB/Edge - Jadeveon Clowney (20.3 mil) Seahawks have 78 mil in cap space

DE - Yannick Ngakoue (17.4 mil) Jaguars with only 7.5 mil in cap space

OLB/Edge - Bud Dupree

OLB/Edge - Shaq Barrett

WR - AJ Green

OT - Anthony Castonzo

DT - Gerald McCoy

DE - Arik Armstead

DT - DJ Reader

OLB/Edge - Matthew Judon

OLB/Edge - Dante Fowler Jr (10.5 mil)

TE - Austin Hooper

TE - Hunter Henry

DT - Javon Hargrave

WR - Amari Cooper (18.7 mil)

 

Mock Draft Results

Walter Football - 1st - Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU, 2nd - Yasir Durant, OT, Missouri, 3rd - Eno Benjamin, RB, Arizona State

Draftek - 1st - Laviska Shenault, WR, Colorado, 2nd - JK Dobbins, RB, Ohio St, 3rd - Jaylon Johnson, DB, Utah

Phinsider - 1st - Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU, 2nd - Solomon Kindley, G, Georgia

Draftsite - 1st - Antonio Golden, WR, Liberty, 2nd - Calvin Throckmorton, OT, Oregon, 3rd - Jabari Zuniga, DE, Florida

 

 

The long and short of it, we have the money to go after one major prize FA, but I don't see us spending 15+ mil on anyone that's not our own.  Yannick would be the most realistic option for us if we do decide to go after someone.  Everyone else is going to be mid-tier, which has worked for us thus far.  I'm the most concerned about replacing Lorax, but there are quite a few mid-tier guys out there.  Wide Receiver is another position I think will be focused on, and every mock has us going there with our 1st pick.  Fortunately, it's a deep draft there.

 

For those wondering tops at those positions:

 

FA Wide Receivers

AJ Green

Larry Fitzgerald

Emmanuel Sanders

Devin Funchess

Amari Cooper

DeVante Parker

Randall Cobb

Danny Amendola

Travis Benjamin

Bershad Perriman

Robby Anderson

 

FA OLB

Dante Fowler

Mario Addison

Whitney Mercilus

AJ Klein

Terrell Suggs

Mychal Hendricks

Shaquil Barrett

Bruce Irvin

Shaq Thompson

 

Projected Possible 1st Round WR (My Choice is to see which one over 6'2 falls to the second and trade up)

Jerry Jeudy, Alabama, 6'1", 4.45

Laviska Shenault Jr, Colorado, 6'2", 4.52

CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma, 6'2" 4.55

Jalen Reagor, TCU, 5'11", 4.35

Antonio Gandy-Golden, Liberty, 6'4", 4.54

Henry Ruggs 3rd, Alabama, 6', 4.4

Justin Jefferson, LSU, 6'3", 4.5

Tamorrion Terry, Florida State, 6'4", 4.5

Gabriel Davis, UCF, 6'3", 4.5

DeVonta Smith, Alabama, 6'1", 4.45

Tee Higgins, Clemson, 6'4" 4.55

 

Projected Possible 1st Round OLB

Isaiah Simmons, Clemson *My Choice for our 1st pick)

Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma (OLB/ILB)

Terrell Lewis, Alabama (OLB/ILB)

Jon Greenard, Florida (OLB/DE)

Julian Okwara, Notre Dame

Anfernee Jennings, Alabama (OLB/ILB)

 

 

Alright, that's all I got.  This was more for me than everyone else to just look around at what's going on.  It's strange to not have to care that much about this as we hit December.  But I enjoy these kinds of things.  @whatdrought@BuffaloHokie13Get ready for the mock drafts

 

 

Thanks for the info, but I’m going to watch the SF/Ravens game to see how they match up and take a close look at the Ravens.  You know the team will be reviewing this game a good portion of the week.

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Can’t believe I’m saying this, but wish we had picked up that 5th year option on Shaq. He’s come on pretty well, and would have been nice to have for a final year on his rookie year. 
 

I think we aren’t going to have much of a shot at getting either Clowney or Yannick.

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1 hour ago, elijah said:

Hunter Bryant, TE, Washington, KJ Hamler, WR, Penn State, JK Dobbins, RB, Ohio State all top my wishlist in the draft. 

 

Hamler is is an extremely fast receiver from Penn State.  He doesn’t have the same height and size as Foster, but his overall game is that of Foster & McKenzie combined and he could fill their roles with just one roster spot leaving an extra one for a bigger bodied receiver like Duke

 

If you’re not paying 8 for Levi you’re likely letting Levi walk 

I think the BIlls should let Johnson play and see what we got before deciding on whom  to  invest.

23 minutes ago, Virgil said:


Johnson has the most potential, as he’s proved it. His injury history is what I think allows us to keep him for cheap.  If healthy for more than a season, he’s getting 10 mil easily.  
 

Wallace had a few bad games, but has overall played very well.  I’m more worried about losing him to someone else.  

But Johnson has NOT been injured this year.  SO that will get thrown out the window.

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1 hour ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

I think Wallace is an ERFA so I don’t think he can get a contract from anyone else as long as he is tendered. I may be wrong on my interpretation of the rules tho. 

 

Pretty sure Foster is an ERFA too

You are correct.  Both are ERFAs.  As long as Bills tender an offer they are here next year.

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13 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

 

Thanks for the info, but I’m going to watch the SF/Ravens game to see how they match up and take a close look at the Ravens.  You know the team will be reviewing this game a good portion of the week.

 
So you replied because......?

7 minutes ago, ganesh said:

 

But Johnson has NOT been injured this year.  SO that will get thrown out the window.


Agreed. But I still think he won’t get the long term deal he wants 

10 minutes ago, JR in Pittsburgh said:

Can’t believe I’m saying this, but wish we had picked up that 5th year option on Shaq. He’s come on pretty well, and would have been nice to have for a final year on his rookie year. 
 

I think we aren’t going to have much of a shot at getting either Clowney or Yannick.


It was 100% the right call at the time.  
 

Part of me wants to re-sign him less now on the chance that he chooses when to show up 

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1 hour ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

Two accrued seasons is an ERFA. Three is a RFA. I believe they’re both two, so they can only negotiate with the Bills. Beane might give them more than a minimum contract, but they’re here if Beane and McD want them. 

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2 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

Two accrued seasons is an ERFA. Three is a RFA. I believe they’re both two, so they can only negotiate with the Bills. Beane might give them more than a minimum contract, but they’re here if Beane and McD want them. 


That’s good to know. Saves another 5-7 mil in my guesstimation

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2 hours ago, Virgil said:

I'll be honest, Bills are 9-3, don't play tomorrow, and I'm not dreading the rest of the season.  I have absolutely no idea what to do with myself right now.  So, I'm going to look at the current FA class, mock drafts, and our salary cap to have some fun.  Feel free to play along or dismiss and move on.

 

Salary Cap Space: 91 Million (26 mil in rollover, 1 mil in dead cap (Wow Beane!))

Draft Position:  25th (I'm giving us a first round win)

 

Current Starters - Unrestricted FA's: 

Jordan Phillips - Re-sign - 11 mil

Lorax (Retiring)

Kevin Johnson - Re-sign - 5 mil

Shaq Lawson - Let him test the market (probably not re-signed)

Quinton Spain - Re-Sign - 7 mil

Frank Gore - Let Go

Kurt Coleman - Re-Sign - 3 mil

Corey Liuget - Re-Sign - 4.5 mil

Dean Marlowe - Re-Sign - 2 mil

Isiah McKenzie - Re-Sign -  3 mil

Levi Wallace - Re-Sign - 8 mil

Robert Foster - Re-Sign - 3 mil

Duke Williams - Not enough room on roster, drafting a WR

Total Spent on Re-Signings = 46.5 Mil

 

Starting Players heading into last year of deal:

Trent Murphy - Cut (Save 7.2 Million.  Dead hit of 1.75 mil)

Ty Yeldon - Cut (Save 1.6 Mil.  Dead 250k)

Ty Nsekhe - Let play out

Jon Feliciano - Let Play Out

Jordan Poyer - Let Play Out

Tre White - Trigger 5th year option

Andre Roberts - Let Play Out

Patrick DiMarco - Let Play Out

Matt Barkley - Let Play Out

Dion Dawkins - Extend - 14 Mil per

Matt Milano - Extend - 8 Mil per

Corey Bojorquez - Let Play Out

Total Spent on Extensions - 13.2 Mil (with the cuts)

 

***Total Cap Remaining for Additional Free Agents - 31.2 mil

 

Positions of Interest:

OLB - Lorax is retiring

DE - Murphy and Shaq could be gone

WR - Need a big bodied #1

RB - Backup to Singletary

OLB/MLB - Depth

 

2020 Free Agents (In order of rank from NFL.com and projected contract from Spodrac)

OLB/Edge - Jadeveon Clowney (20.3 mil) Seahawks have 78 mil in cap space

DE - Yannick Ngakoue (17.4 mil) Jaguars with only 7.5 mil in cap space

OLB/Edge - Bud Dupree

OLB/Edge - Shaq Barrett

WR - AJ Green

OT - Anthony Castonzo

DT - Gerald McCoy

DE - Arik Armstead

DT - DJ Reader

OLB/Edge - Matthew Judon

OLB/Edge - Dante Fowler Jr (10.5 mil)

TE - Austin Hooper

TE - Hunter Henry

DT - Javon Hargrave

WR - Amari Cooper (18.7 mil)

 

Mock Draft Results

Walter Football - 1st - Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU, 2nd - Yasir Durant, OT, Missouri, 3rd - Eno Benjamin, RB, Arizona State

Draftek - 1st - Laviska Shenault, WR, Colorado, 2nd - JK Dobbins, RB, Ohio St, 3rd - Jaylon Johnson, DB, Utah

Phinsider - 1st - Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU, 2nd - Solomon Kindley, G, Georgia

Draftsite - 1st - Antonio Golden, WR, Liberty, 2nd - Calvin Throckmorton, OT, Oregon, 3rd - Jabari Zuniga, DE, Florida

 

 

The long and short of it, we have the money to go after one major prize FA, but I don't see us spending 15+ mil on anyone that's not our own.  Yannick would be the most realistic option for us if we do decide to go after someone.  Everyone else is going to be mid-tier, which has worked for us thus far.  I'm the most concerned about replacing Lorax, but there are quite a few mid-tier guys out there.  Wide Receiver is another position I think will be focused on, and every mock has us going there with our 1st pick.  Fortunately, it's a deep draft there.

 

For those wondering tops at those positions:

 

FA Wide Receivers

AJ Green

Larry Fitzgerald

Emmanuel Sanders

Devin Funchess

Amari Cooper

DeVante Parker

Randall Cobb

Danny Amendola

Travis Benjamin

Bershad Perriman

Robby Anderson

 

FA OLB

Dante Fowler

Mario Addison

Whitney Mercilus

AJ Klein

Terrell Suggs

Mychal Hendricks

Shaquil Barrett

Bruce Irvin

Shaq Thompson

 

Projected Possible 1st Round WR (My Choice is to see which one over 6'2 falls to the second and trade up)

Jerry Jeudy, Alabama, 6'1", 4.45

Laviska Shenault Jr, Colorado, 6'2", 4.52

CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma, 6'2" 4.55

Jalen Reagor, TCU, 5'11", 4.35

Antonio Gandy-Golden, Liberty, 6'4", 4.54

Henry Ruggs 3rd, Alabama, 6', 4.4

Justin Jefferson, LSU, 6'3", 4.5

Tamorrion Terry, Florida State, 6'4", 4.5

Gabriel Davis, UCF, 6'3", 4.5

DeVonta Smith, Alabama, 6'1", 4.45

Tee Higgins, Clemson, 6'4" 4.55

 

Projected Possible 1st Round OLB

Isaiah Simmons, Clemson *My Choice for our 1st pick)

Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma (OLB/ILB)

Terrell Lewis, Alabama (OLB/ILB)

Jon Greenard, Florida (OLB/DE)

Julian Okwara, Notre Dame

Anfernee Jennings, Alabama (OLB/ILB)

 

 

Alright, that's all I got.  This was more for me than everyone else to just look around at what's going on.  It's strange to not have to care that much about this as we hit December.  But I enjoy these kinds of things.  @whatdrought@BuffaloHokie13Get ready for the mock drafts

 


my only nit pick this early would be Duke Williams. He will be coming back to Buffalo. Along with ALL their EFRAs they will bring them at least to camp. 

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8 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 It was 100% the right call at the time.  

 

Part of me wants to re-sign him less now on the chance that he chooses when to show up 


agreed. In fact, if they had picked up the option, you wonder if it would have lit the fire under him as it seems to have done by them

electing them not to. 

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Just now, MAJBobby said:


my only nit pick this early would be Duke Williams. He will be coming back to Buffalo. Along with ALL their EFRAs they will bring them at least to camp. 


Yeah, I messed a few of those up.  But I still question if Duke will be on the actual team.  If they draft someone, he won’t have a home on the active roster.  
 

Maybe the practice squad again but who knows what their depth situation will look like 

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9 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 
So you replied because......?


Agreed. But I still think he won’t get the long term deal he wants 


It was 100% the right call at the time.  
 

Part of me wants to re-sign him less now on the chance that he chooses when to show up 

100% agree on Shaq...the Bills challenged him to get a prove-it-and-get-a-deal  option.  Shaq has taken control after a slow start.  I am sure Beane didn't just blindly decline the option...He must have a plan if Shaq did play extremely well.  If Shaq wants to be here for the run, he will get his agent to negotiate the contract.  However, if Shaq really doesn't  care about this team and will go to the HIGHEST Bidder, then he will be gone and I don't believe at that point Beane and McDermott would anyways want him.   They feared that is what would happen with Darby and Watkins.

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Current Starters - Unrestricted FA's: 

Jordan Phillips - Re-sign - 11 mil

Lorax (Retiring)

Kevin Johnson - Re-sign - 5 mil

Shaq Lawson - Let him test the market (probably not re-signed)

Quinton Spain - Re-Sign - 7 mil

Frank Gore - Let Go

Kurt Coleman - Re-Sign - 3 mil

Corey Liuget - Re-Sign - 4.5 mil

Dean Marlowe - Re-Sign - 2 mil

Isiah McKenzie - Re-Sign -  3 mil

Levi Wallace - Re-Sign - 8 mil

Robert Foster - Re-Sign - 3 mil

Duke Williams - Not enough room on roster, drafting a WR

Total Spent on Re-Signings = 46.5 Mil

 

It's a good strategy to retain your own good players but not good to overpay them. That's how the team can end up back in salary cap jail. 

 

Way over valued a lot of players:

 

Q. Spain - At $7 million he would be the 13th highest paid G in the league. He's had a nice season but the Bills are not going to pay him 2x what they pay Feliciano (who has a #3.5M cap hit). He's at $2 mill this year, maybe he gets $3.5-4 mill. If not, the 2020 guards could be Feliciano and Ford. 

J. Phillips - Now you can say he's worth as much as Star L. but there's only 7 DTs making $11 mill. or more (cap hit). He's in for a nice payday, but he's not going from $4.5 to $11 Million. The other consideration here is that they have Star, Ed Oliver and Harrison Phillips and they have Phillips and Liuget in need of new contracts. I bet they only sign one they only need 1. 

L. Wallace and K. Johnson -  At $8M that puts Wallace in the top 25 cap hits for CB. At $5 mill. Johnson would be top 36. Wallace at $5 and Johnson more like $3 million (he's at $2.7 this year), he's your 3rd or 4th best CB. 

K. Coleman - He's a vet minimum guy at this point in his career (which he is in '19)  if you bring him back, which is doubtful. 

I. McKenzie & R. Foster - Check out Spotrac and see all the WRs at $3 million - I like both these guys but $3 million is top 55 WR money. They are the 3rd and 4th best WRs on the team, and I think both are restricted or exclusive rights FAs so they are $1.5-2 million players. They have 23 receptions combined for less than 300 yards. 

D. Marlowe - When the team is healthy he doesn't make the 46 active player roster. Any player in lots 47-53 is a minimum contract player, not $2 million a year. 

 

I think I just saved you almost $20 million. 

 

I would not be surprised to see them sign most of them but also brace yourself for losing some of them. Look at the salary hierarchy in the league, the top players get a disproportional share of the cap, rotation players or solid pros get very middling money. Players that would be ranked in the bottom 10-13 of the 53 man roster get vet minimums. That's just the way it goes. There's a lot of players with similar ability.

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7 minutes ago, Virgil said:


That’s good to know. Saves another 5-7 mil in my guesstimation

Yup. I could see Beane paying over the minimum though. It sets a good precedent for future UDFA signings... if you play, we pay. That’ll be important as this roster improves and a spot on the 53 becomes difficult to secure. 

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