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Virgil

Bored - Offseason Speculation

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13 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

 

Thanks for the info, but I’m going to watch the SF/Ravens game to see how they match up and take a close look at the Ravens.  You know the team will be reviewing this game a good portion of the week.

 
So you replied because......?

7 minutes ago, ganesh said:

 

But Johnson has NOT been injured this year.  SO that will get thrown out the window.


Agreed. But I still think he won’t get the long term deal he wants 

10 minutes ago, JR in Pittsburgh said:

Can’t believe I’m saying this, but wish we had picked up that 5th year option on Shaq. He’s come on pretty well, and would have been nice to have for a final year on his rookie year. 
 

I think we aren’t going to have much of a shot at getting either Clowney or Yannick.


It was 100% the right call at the time.  
 

Part of me wants to re-sign him less now on the chance that he chooses when to show up 

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1 hour ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

Two accrued seasons is an ERFA. Three is a RFA. I believe they’re both two, so they can only negotiate with the Bills. Beane might give them more than a minimum contract, but they’re here if Beane and McD want them. 

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2 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

Two accrued seasons is an ERFA. Three is a RFA. I believe they’re both two, so they can only negotiate with the Bills. Beane might give them more than a minimum contract, but they’re here if Beane and McD want them. 


That’s good to know. Saves another 5-7 mil in my guesstimation

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2 hours ago, Virgil said:

I'll be honest, Bills are 9-3, don't play tomorrow, and I'm not dreading the rest of the season.  I have absolutely no idea what to do with myself right now.  So, I'm going to look at the current FA class, mock drafts, and our salary cap to have some fun.  Feel free to play along or dismiss and move on.

 

Salary Cap Space: 91 Million (26 mil in rollover, 1 mil in dead cap (Wow Beane!))

Draft Position:  25th (I'm giving us a first round win)

 

Current Starters - Unrestricted FA's: 

Jordan Phillips - Re-sign - 11 mil

Lorax (Retiring)

Kevin Johnson - Re-sign - 5 mil

Shaq Lawson - Let him test the market (probably not re-signed)

Quinton Spain - Re-Sign - 7 mil

Frank Gore - Let Go

Kurt Coleman - Re-Sign - 3 mil

Corey Liuget - Re-Sign - 4.5 mil

Dean Marlowe - Re-Sign - 2 mil

Isiah McKenzie - Re-Sign -  3 mil

Levi Wallace - Re-Sign - 8 mil

Robert Foster - Re-Sign - 3 mil

Duke Williams - Not enough room on roster, drafting a WR

Total Spent on Re-Signings = 46.5 Mil

 

Starting Players heading into last year of deal:

Trent Murphy - Cut (Save 7.2 Million.  Dead hit of 1.75 mil)

Ty Yeldon - Cut (Save 1.6 Mil.  Dead 250k)

Ty Nsekhe - Let play out

Jon Feliciano - Let Play Out

Jordan Poyer - Let Play Out

Tre White - Trigger 5th year option

Andre Roberts - Let Play Out

Patrick DiMarco - Let Play Out

Matt Barkley - Let Play Out

Dion Dawkins - Extend - 14 Mil per

Matt Milano - Extend - 8 Mil per

Corey Bojorquez - Let Play Out

Total Spent on Extensions - 13.2 Mil (with the cuts)

 

***Total Cap Remaining for Additional Free Agents - 31.2 mil

 

Positions of Interest:

OLB - Lorax is retiring

DE - Murphy and Shaq could be gone

WR - Need a big bodied #1

RB - Backup to Singletary

OLB/MLB - Depth

 

2020 Free Agents (In order of rank from NFL.com and projected contract from Spodrac)

OLB/Edge - Jadeveon Clowney (20.3 mil) Seahawks have 78 mil in cap space

DE - Yannick Ngakoue (17.4 mil) Jaguars with only 7.5 mil in cap space

OLB/Edge - Bud Dupree

OLB/Edge - Shaq Barrett

WR - AJ Green

OT - Anthony Castonzo

DT - Gerald McCoy

DE - Arik Armstead

DT - DJ Reader

OLB/Edge - Matthew Judon

OLB/Edge - Dante Fowler Jr (10.5 mil)

TE - Austin Hooper

TE - Hunter Henry

DT - Javon Hargrave

WR - Amari Cooper (18.7 mil)

 

Mock Draft Results

Walter Football - 1st - Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU, 2nd - Yasir Durant, OT, Missouri, 3rd - Eno Benjamin, RB, Arizona State

Draftek - 1st - Laviska Shenault, WR, Colorado, 2nd - JK Dobbins, RB, Ohio St, 3rd - Jaylon Johnson, DB, Utah

Phinsider - 1st - Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU, 2nd - Solomon Kindley, G, Georgia

Draftsite - 1st - Antonio Golden, WR, Liberty, 2nd - Calvin Throckmorton, OT, Oregon, 3rd - Jabari Zuniga, DE, Florida

 

 

The long and short of it, we have the money to go after one major prize FA, but I don't see us spending 15+ mil on anyone that's not our own.  Yannick would be the most realistic option for us if we do decide to go after someone.  Everyone else is going to be mid-tier, which has worked for us thus far.  I'm the most concerned about replacing Lorax, but there are quite a few mid-tier guys out there.  Wide Receiver is another position I think will be focused on, and every mock has us going there with our 1st pick.  Fortunately, it's a deep draft there.

 

For those wondering tops at those positions:

 

FA Wide Receivers

AJ Green

Larry Fitzgerald

Emmanuel Sanders

Devin Funchess

Amari Cooper

DeVante Parker

Randall Cobb

Danny Amendola

Travis Benjamin

Bershad Perriman

Robby Anderson

 

FA OLB

Dante Fowler

Mario Addison

Whitney Mercilus

AJ Klein

Terrell Suggs

Mychal Hendricks

Shaquil Barrett

Bruce Irvin

Shaq Thompson

 

Projected Possible 1st Round WR (My Choice is to see which one over 6'2 falls to the second and trade up)

Jerry Jeudy, Alabama, 6'1", 4.45

Laviska Shenault Jr, Colorado, 6'2", 4.52

CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma, 6'2" 4.55

Jalen Reagor, TCU, 5'11", 4.35

Antonio Gandy-Golden, Liberty, 6'4", 4.54

Henry Ruggs 3rd, Alabama, 6', 4.4

Justin Jefferson, LSU, 6'3", 4.5

Tamorrion Terry, Florida State, 6'4", 4.5

Gabriel Davis, UCF, 6'3", 4.5

DeVonta Smith, Alabama, 6'1", 4.45

Tee Higgins, Clemson, 6'4" 4.55

 

Projected Possible 1st Round OLB

Isaiah Simmons, Clemson *My Choice for our 1st pick)

Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma (OLB/ILB)

Terrell Lewis, Alabama (OLB/ILB)

Jon Greenard, Florida (OLB/DE)

Julian Okwara, Notre Dame

Anfernee Jennings, Alabama (OLB/ILB)

 

 

Alright, that's all I got.  This was more for me than everyone else to just look around at what's going on.  It's strange to not have to care that much about this as we hit December.  But I enjoy these kinds of things.  @whatdrought@BuffaloHokie13Get ready for the mock drafts

 


my only nit pick this early would be Duke Williams. He will be coming back to Buffalo. Along with ALL their EFRAs they will bring them at least to camp. 

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8 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 It was 100% the right call at the time.  

 

Part of me wants to re-sign him less now on the chance that he chooses when to show up 


agreed. In fact, if they had picked up the option, you wonder if it would have lit the fire under him as it seems to have done by them

electing them not to. 

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Just now, MAJBobby said:


my only nit pick this early would be Duke Williams. He will be coming back to Buffalo. Along with ALL their EFRAs they will bring them at least to camp. 


Yeah, I messed a few of those up.  But I still question if Duke will be on the actual team.  If they draft someone, he won’t have a home on the active roster.  
 

Maybe the practice squad again but who knows what their depth situation will look like 

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9 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 
So you replied because......?


Agreed. But I still think he won’t get the long term deal he wants 


It was 100% the right call at the time.  
 

Part of me wants to re-sign him less now on the chance that he chooses when to show up 

100% agree on Shaq...the Bills challenged him to get a prove-it-and-get-a-deal  option.  Shaq has taken control after a slow start.  I am sure Beane didn't just blindly decline the option...He must have a plan if Shaq did play extremely well.  If Shaq wants to be here for the run, he will get his agent to negotiate the contract.  However, if Shaq really doesn't  care about this team and will go to the HIGHEST Bidder, then he will be gone and I don't believe at that point Beane and McDermott would anyways want him.   They feared that is what would happen with Darby and Watkins.

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Current Starters - Unrestricted FA's: 

Jordan Phillips - Re-sign - 11 mil

Lorax (Retiring)

Kevin Johnson - Re-sign - 5 mil

Shaq Lawson - Let him test the market (probably not re-signed)

Quinton Spain - Re-Sign - 7 mil

Frank Gore - Let Go

Kurt Coleman - Re-Sign - 3 mil

Corey Liuget - Re-Sign - 4.5 mil

Dean Marlowe - Re-Sign - 2 mil

Isiah McKenzie - Re-Sign -  3 mil

Levi Wallace - Re-Sign - 8 mil

Robert Foster - Re-Sign - 3 mil

Duke Williams - Not enough room on roster, drafting a WR

Total Spent on Re-Signings = 46.5 Mil

 

It's a good strategy to retain your own good players but not good to overpay them. That's how the team can end up back in salary cap jail. 

 

Way over valued a lot of players:

 

Q. Spain - At $7 million he would be the 13th highest paid G in the league. He's had a nice season but the Bills are not going to pay him 2x what they pay Feliciano (who has a #3.5M cap hit). He's at $2 mill this year, maybe he gets $3.5-4 mill. If not, the 2020 guards could be Feliciano and Ford. 

J. Phillips - Now you can say he's worth as much as Star L. but there's only 7 DTs making $11 mill. or more (cap hit). He's in for a nice payday, but he's not going from $4.5 to $11 Million. The other consideration here is that they have Star, Ed Oliver and Harrison Phillips and they have Phillips and Liuget in need of new contracts. I bet they only sign one they only need 1. 

L. Wallace and K. Johnson -  At $8M that puts Wallace in the top 25 cap hits for CB. At $5 mill. Johnson would be top 36. Wallace at $5 and Johnson more like $3 million (he's at $2.7 this year), he's your 3rd or 4th best CB. 

K. Coleman - He's a vet minimum guy at this point in his career (which he is in '19)  if you bring him back, which is doubtful. 

I. McKenzie & R. Foster - Check out Spotrac and see all the WRs at $3 million - I like both these guys but $3 million is top 55 WR money. They are the 3rd and 4th best WRs on the team, and I think both are restricted or exclusive rights FAs so they are $1.5-2 million players. They have 23 receptions combined for less than 300 yards. 

D. Marlowe - When the team is healthy he doesn't make the 46 active player roster. Any player in lots 47-53 is a minimum contract player, not $2 million a year. 

 

I think I just saved you almost $20 million. 

 

I would not be surprised to see them sign most of them but also brace yourself for losing some of them. Look at the salary hierarchy in the league, the top players get a disproportional share of the cap, rotation players or solid pros get very middling money. Players that would be ranked in the bottom 10-13 of the 53 man roster get vet minimums. That's just the way it goes. There's a lot of players with similar ability.

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7 minutes ago, Virgil said:


That’s good to know. Saves another 5-7 mil in my guesstimation

Yup. I could see Beane paying over the minimum though. It sets a good precedent for future UDFA signings... if you play, we pay. That’ll be important as this roster improves and a spot on the 53 becomes difficult to secure. 

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8 minutes ago, Virgil said:


Yeah, I messed a few of those up.  But I still question if Duke will be on the actual team.  If they draft someone, he won’t have a home on the active roster.  
 

Maybe the practice squad again but who knows what their depth situation will look like 


I do think he will have an uphill climb to make the roster next year specially if we draft a WR early (I think we do). But they do see something in him. I actually wonder if his activation from the PS was because someone was trying to sign him (And why he is still on the 53) instead of being cut and sent back down. That is the reason I think he at least makes it to camp likely on just his EFRA tender 

 

another thing is I don’t think they let Shaq walk and Cut Murphy without a UFA DE coming in the door either. They won’t let the No 2 and No 3 DE walk out the door without addressing it prior to the draft. 

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I cringed at the thought of paying Levi Wallace $8mil per year.

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3 minutes ago, jwhit34 said:

 

Current Starters - Unrestricted FA's: 

Jordan Phillips - Re-sign - 11 mil

Lorax (Retiring)

Kevin Johnson - Re-sign - 5 mil

Shaq Lawson - Let him test the market (probably not re-signed)

Quinton Spain - Re-Sign - 7 mil

Frank Gore - Let Go

Kurt Coleman - Re-Sign - 3 mil

Corey Liuget - Re-Sign - 4.5 mil

Dean Marlowe - Re-Sign - 2 mil

Isiah McKenzie - Re-Sign -  3 mil

Levi Wallace - Re-Sign - 8 mil

Robert Foster - Re-Sign - 3 mil

Duke Williams - Not enough room on roster, drafting a WR

Total Spent on Re-Signings = 46.5 Mil

 

It's a good strategy to retain your own good players but not good to overpay them. That's how the team can end up back in salary cap jail. 

 

Way over valued a lot of players:

 

Q. Spain - At $7 million he would be the 13th highest paid G in the league. He's had a nice season but the Bills are not going to pay him 2x what they pay Feliciano (who has a #3.5M cap hit). He's at $2 mill this year, maybe he gets $3.5-4 mill. If not, the 2020 guards could be Feliciano and Ford. 

J. Phillips - Now you can say he's worth as much as Star L. but there's only 7 DTs making $11 mill. or more (cap hit). He's in for a nice payday, but he's not going from $4.5 to $11 Million. The other consideration here is that they have Star, Ed Oliver and Harrison Phillips and they have Phillips and Liuget in need of new contracts. I bet they only sign one they only need 1. 

L. Wallace and K. Johnson -  At $8M that puts Wallace in the top 25 cap hits for CB. At $5 mill. Johnson would be top 36. Wallace at $5 and Johnson more like $3 million (he's at $2.7 this year), he's your 3rd or 4th best CB. 

K. Coleman - He's a vet minimum guy at this point in his career (which he is in '19)  if you bring him back, which is doubtful. 

I. McKenzie & R. Foster - Check out Spotrac and see all the WRs at $3 million - I like both these guys but $3 million is top 55 WR money. They are the 3rd and 4th best WRs on the team, and I think both are restricted or exclusive rights FAs so they are $1.5-2 million players. They have 23 receptions combined for less than 300 yards. 

D. Marlowe - When the team is healthy he doesn't make the 46 active player roster. Any player in lots 47-53 is a minimum contract player, not $2 million a year. 

 

I think I just saved you almost $20 million. 

 

I would not be surprised to see them sign most of them but also brace yourself for losing some of them. Look at the salary hierarchy in the league, the top players get a disproportional share of the cap, rotation players or solid pros get very middling money. Players that would be ranked in the bottom 10-13 of the 53 man roster get vet minimums. That's just the way it goes. There's a lot of players with similar ability.

If Phillips finishes the season with more than 8 sacks he’s likely going to get an offer over $10MM a year. I think we can probably resign him on the low end of a competitive offer, but I certainly wouldn’t rule out Phillips walking if he gets a ridiculous offer.... My hope is that we benefit from him seeing how bad some teams can be (thanks again Gase!).

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9 minutes ago, jwhit34 said:

 

Current Starters - Unrestricted FA's: 

Jordan Phillips - Re-sign - 11 mil

Lorax (Retiring)

Kevin Johnson - Re-sign - 5 mil

Shaq Lawson - Let him test the market (probably not re-signed)

Quinton Spain - Re-Sign - 7 mil

Frank Gore - Let Go

Kurt Coleman - Re-Sign - 3 mil

Corey Liuget - Re-Sign - 4.5 mil

Dean Marlowe - Re-Sign - 2 mil

Isiah McKenzie - Re-Sign -  3 mil

Levi Wallace - Re-Sign - 8 mil

Robert Foster - Re-Sign - 3 mil

Duke Williams - Not enough room on roster, drafting a WR

Total Spent on Re-Signings = 46.5 Mil

 

It's a good strategy to retain your own good players but not good to overpay them. That's how the team can end up back in salary cap jail. 

 

Way over valued a lot of players:

 

Q. Spain - At $7 million he would be the 13th highest paid G in the league. He's had a nice season but the Bills are not going to pay him 2x what they pay Feliciano (who has a #3.5M cap hit). He's at $2 mill this year, maybe he gets $3.5-4 mill. If not, the 2020 guards could be Feliciano and Ford. 

J. Phillips - Now you can say he's worth as much as Star L. but there's only 7 DTs making $11 mill. or more (cap hit). He's in for a nice payday, but he's not going from $4.5 to $11 Million. The other consideration here is that they have Star, Ed Oliver and Harrison Phillips and they have Phillips and Liuget in need of new contracts. I bet they only sign one they only need 1. 

L. Wallace and K. Johnson -  At $8M that puts Wallace in the top 25 cap hits for CB. At $5 mill. Johnson would be top 36. Wallace at $5 and Johnson more like $3 million (he's at $2.7 this year), he's your 3rd or 4th best CB. 

K. Coleman - He's a vet minimum guy at this point in his career (which he is in '19)  if you bring him back, which is doubtful. 

I. McKenzie & R. Foster - Check out Spotrac and see all the WRs at $3 million - I like both these guys but $3 million is top 55 WR money. They are the 3rd and 4th best WRs on the team, and I think both are restricted or exclusive rights FAs so they are $1.5-2 million players. They have 23 receptions combined for less than 300 yards. 

D. Marlowe - When the team is healthy he doesn't make the 46 active player roster. Any player in lots 47-53 is a minimum contract player, not $2 million a year. 

 

I think I just saved you almost $20 million. 

 

I would not be surprised to see them sign most of them but also brace yourself for losing some of them. Look at the salary hierarchy in the league, the top players get a disproportional share of the cap, rotation players or solid pros get very middling money. Players that would be ranked in the bottom 10-13 of the 53 man roster get vet minimums. That's just the way it goes. There's a lot of players with similar ability.


Well, I’ve already been proven wrong that Wallace and Foster don’t need deals for that much since they are restricted.  
 

I think you’d be surprised on the rest.  I think about Robert Woods and other guys who got paid elsewhere.  These guys are contributors on a top 3 defense and would be a whole roster depth spot higher on their next team.  
 

If anything, I think I may have gone a little low on some. 
 

But hey, as always, happy to be wrong 

1 hour ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

I think Wallace is an ERFA so I don’t think he can get a contract from anyone else as long as he is tendered. I may be wrong on my interpretation of the rules tho. 

 

Pretty sure Foster is an ERFA too


I’ve updated them OP for my stupidity.  Thank you for letting me know 

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Nice writeup Virgil.  I believe Bills will tender all of their ERFAs and RFAs.  They need 90 players for training camp and Beane may trade a player or two before the season starts.  Based on the season so far, I'd guess the Bills would like to re-sign Spain, K. Johnson, J. Phillips, and Shaq.  That may be a tall order but curious to see how that plays out.  

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Bud Dupree would fit nicely in Lorax role. Big play defender. 

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I don’t want to derail your thread, Virgil, because It’s a well-thought look-ahead to the offseason.  I can’t tell you just how happy I am that we have meaningful football through December and into January.  
 

After many years of concerns that late-season wins would ruin our draft position and discussions like the one you are facilitating now, it’s really nice to only want more wins as we prepare for a playoff run. 
 

Anyway, back to your constructive conversation on the 2020 offseason. 

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I forget which teams site it was, but their forums shrink a quoted post, which you can expand (if needed). A lot of people here quote an entire OP just to reply. I don't understand that, If there is a particular section relevant to your post, quote that; otherwise you are just being an arse. Had one in here quote the entire OP just to state he wasn't interested.

 

As far as the OP, I don't recall what week it was, but I saw a Lorax quote where it seemed like he might not actually hang it up after 2019. This tight locker room might pull him in another season, assuming we are interested. That being said, I am fully on-board with drafting his replacement stat.

 

For WR, cant hurt to draft one. I wish there was a FA in the moderate range that I liked, seems rather high contract/low contract.

 

I def see us spending 1/2 our $$ on re-signing and that is excellent.

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19 minutes ago, Forward Progress said:

I don’t want to derail your thread, Virgil, because It’s a well-thought look-ahead to the offseason.  I can’t tell you just how happy I am that we have meaningful football through December and into January.  
 

After many years of concerns that late-season wins would ruin our draft position and discussions like the one you are facilitating now, it’s really nice to only want more wins as we prepare for a playoff run. 
 

Anyway, back to your constructive conversation on the 2020 offseason. 

Virgil is like Beane...He is already plotting for 2020-2021 season.  Fail to Prepare, Prepare to Fail !

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2 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

This seems like a post for years past, when the playoffs were a pipe dream by turkey day. I appreciate the effort it probably  took, but this team is in the thick of a wildcard race in great position with winnable games coming up. 

 

On the contrary. We're way out in front. 

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