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Virgil

Bored - Offseason Speculation

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8 minutes ago, Virgil said:


Yeah, I messed a few of those up.  But I still question if Duke will be on the actual team.  If they draft someone, he won’t have a home on the active roster.  
 

Maybe the practice squad again but who knows what their depth situation will look like 


I do think he will have an uphill climb to make the roster next year specially if we draft a WR early (I think we do). But they do see something in him. I actually wonder if his activation from the PS was because someone was trying to sign him (And why he is still on the 53) instead of being cut and sent back down. That is the reason I think he at least makes it to camp likely on just his EFRA tender 

 

another thing is I don’t think they let Shaq walk and Cut Murphy without a UFA DE coming in the door either. They won’t let the No 2 and No 3 DE walk out the door without addressing it prior to the draft. 

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I cringed at the thought of paying Levi Wallace $8mil per year.

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3 minutes ago, jwhit34 said:

 

Current Starters - Unrestricted FA's: 

Jordan Phillips - Re-sign - 11 mil

Lorax (Retiring)

Kevin Johnson - Re-sign - 5 mil

Shaq Lawson - Let him test the market (probably not re-signed)

Quinton Spain - Re-Sign - 7 mil

Frank Gore - Let Go

Kurt Coleman - Re-Sign - 3 mil

Corey Liuget - Re-Sign - 4.5 mil

Dean Marlowe - Re-Sign - 2 mil

Isiah McKenzie - Re-Sign -  3 mil

Levi Wallace - Re-Sign - 8 mil

Robert Foster - Re-Sign - 3 mil

Duke Williams - Not enough room on roster, drafting a WR

Total Spent on Re-Signings = 46.5 Mil

 

It's a good strategy to retain your own good players but not good to overpay them. That's how the team can end up back in salary cap jail. 

 

Way over valued a lot of players:

 

Q. Spain - At $7 million he would be the 13th highest paid G in the league. He's had a nice season but the Bills are not going to pay him 2x what they pay Feliciano (who has a #3.5M cap hit). He's at $2 mill this year, maybe he gets $3.5-4 mill. If not, the 2020 guards could be Feliciano and Ford. 

J. Phillips - Now you can say he's worth as much as Star L. but there's only 7 DTs making $11 mill. or more (cap hit). He's in for a nice payday, but he's not going from $4.5 to $11 Million. The other consideration here is that they have Star, Ed Oliver and Harrison Phillips and they have Phillips and Liuget in need of new contracts. I bet they only sign one they only need 1. 

L. Wallace and K. Johnson -  At $8M that puts Wallace in the top 25 cap hits for CB. At $5 mill. Johnson would be top 36. Wallace at $5 and Johnson more like $3 million (he's at $2.7 this year), he's your 3rd or 4th best CB. 

K. Coleman - He's a vet minimum guy at this point in his career (which he is in '19)  if you bring him back, which is doubtful. 

I. McKenzie & R. Foster - Check out Spotrac and see all the WRs at $3 million - I like both these guys but $3 million is top 55 WR money. They are the 3rd and 4th best WRs on the team, and I think both are restricted or exclusive rights FAs so they are $1.5-2 million players. They have 23 receptions combined for less than 300 yards. 

D. Marlowe - When the team is healthy he doesn't make the 46 active player roster. Any player in lots 47-53 is a minimum contract player, not $2 million a year. 

 

I think I just saved you almost $20 million. 

 

I would not be surprised to see them sign most of them but also brace yourself for losing some of them. Look at the salary hierarchy in the league, the top players get a disproportional share of the cap, rotation players or solid pros get very middling money. Players that would be ranked in the bottom 10-13 of the 53 man roster get vet minimums. That's just the way it goes. There's a lot of players with similar ability.

If Phillips finishes the season with more than 8 sacks he’s likely going to get an offer over $10MM a year. I think we can probably resign him on the low end of a competitive offer, but I certainly wouldn’t rule out Phillips walking if he gets a ridiculous offer.... My hope is that we benefit from him seeing how bad some teams can be (thanks again Gase!).

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9 minutes ago, jwhit34 said:

 

Current Starters - Unrestricted FA's: 

Jordan Phillips - Re-sign - 11 mil

Lorax (Retiring)

Kevin Johnson - Re-sign - 5 mil

Shaq Lawson - Let him test the market (probably not re-signed)

Quinton Spain - Re-Sign - 7 mil

Frank Gore - Let Go

Kurt Coleman - Re-Sign - 3 mil

Corey Liuget - Re-Sign - 4.5 mil

Dean Marlowe - Re-Sign - 2 mil

Isiah McKenzie - Re-Sign -  3 mil

Levi Wallace - Re-Sign - 8 mil

Robert Foster - Re-Sign - 3 mil

Duke Williams - Not enough room on roster, drafting a WR

Total Spent on Re-Signings = 46.5 Mil

 

It's a good strategy to retain your own good players but not good to overpay them. That's how the team can end up back in salary cap jail. 

 

Way over valued a lot of players:

 

Q. Spain - At $7 million he would be the 13th highest paid G in the league. He's had a nice season but the Bills are not going to pay him 2x what they pay Feliciano (who has a #3.5M cap hit). He's at $2 mill this year, maybe he gets $3.5-4 mill. If not, the 2020 guards could be Feliciano and Ford. 

J. Phillips - Now you can say he's worth as much as Star L. but there's only 7 DTs making $11 mill. or more (cap hit). He's in for a nice payday, but he's not going from $4.5 to $11 Million. The other consideration here is that they have Star, Ed Oliver and Harrison Phillips and they have Phillips and Liuget in need of new contracts. I bet they only sign one they only need 1. 

L. Wallace and K. Johnson -  At $8M that puts Wallace in the top 25 cap hits for CB. At $5 mill. Johnson would be top 36. Wallace at $5 and Johnson more like $3 million (he's at $2.7 this year), he's your 3rd or 4th best CB. 

K. Coleman - He's a vet minimum guy at this point in his career (which he is in '19)  if you bring him back, which is doubtful. 

I. McKenzie & R. Foster - Check out Spotrac and see all the WRs at $3 million - I like both these guys but $3 million is top 55 WR money. They are the 3rd and 4th best WRs on the team, and I think both are restricted or exclusive rights FAs so they are $1.5-2 million players. They have 23 receptions combined for less than 300 yards. 

D. Marlowe - When the team is healthy he doesn't make the 46 active player roster. Any player in lots 47-53 is a minimum contract player, not $2 million a year. 

 

I think I just saved you almost $20 million. 

 

I would not be surprised to see them sign most of them but also brace yourself for losing some of them. Look at the salary hierarchy in the league, the top players get a disproportional share of the cap, rotation players or solid pros get very middling money. Players that would be ranked in the bottom 10-13 of the 53 man roster get vet minimums. That's just the way it goes. There's a lot of players with similar ability.


Well, I’ve already been proven wrong that Wallace and Foster don’t need deals for that much since they are restricted.  
 

I think you’d be surprised on the rest.  I think about Robert Woods and other guys who got paid elsewhere.  These guys are contributors on a top 3 defense and would be a whole roster depth spot higher on their next team.  
 

If anything, I think I may have gone a little low on some. 
 

But hey, as always, happy to be wrong 

1 hour ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

I think Wallace is an ERFA so I don’t think he can get a contract from anyone else as long as he is tendered. I may be wrong on my interpretation of the rules tho. 

 

Pretty sure Foster is an ERFA too


I’ve updated them OP for my stupidity.  Thank you for letting me know 

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Nice writeup Virgil.  I believe Bills will tender all of their ERFAs and RFAs.  They need 90 players for training camp and Beane may trade a player or two before the season starts.  Based on the season so far, I'd guess the Bills would like to re-sign Spain, K. Johnson, J. Phillips, and Shaq.  That may be a tall order but curious to see how that plays out.  

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Bud Dupree would fit nicely in Lorax role. Big play defender. 

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I don’t want to derail your thread, Virgil, because It’s a well-thought look-ahead to the offseason.  I can’t tell you just how happy I am that we have meaningful football through December and into January.  
 

After many years of concerns that late-season wins would ruin our draft position and discussions like the one you are facilitating now, it’s really nice to only want more wins as we prepare for a playoff run. 
 

Anyway, back to your constructive conversation on the 2020 offseason. 

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I forget which teams site it was, but their forums shrink a quoted post, which you can expand (if needed). A lot of people here quote an entire OP just to reply. I don't understand that, If there is a particular section relevant to your post, quote that; otherwise you are just being an arse. Had one in here quote the entire OP just to state he wasn't interested.

 

As far as the OP, I don't recall what week it was, but I saw a Lorax quote where it seemed like he might not actually hang it up after 2019. This tight locker room might pull him in another season, assuming we are interested. That being said, I am fully on-board with drafting his replacement stat.

 

For WR, cant hurt to draft one. I wish there was a FA in the moderate range that I liked, seems rather high contract/low contract.

 

I def see us spending 1/2 our $$ on re-signing and that is excellent.

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19 minutes ago, Forward Progress said:

I don’t want to derail your thread, Virgil, because It’s a well-thought look-ahead to the offseason.  I can’t tell you just how happy I am that we have meaningful football through December and into January.  
 

After many years of concerns that late-season wins would ruin our draft position and discussions like the one you are facilitating now, it’s really nice to only want more wins as we prepare for a playoff run. 
 

Anyway, back to your constructive conversation on the 2020 offseason. 

Virgil is like Beane...He is already plotting for 2020-2021 season.  Fail to Prepare, Prepare to Fail !

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2 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

This seems like a post for years past, when the playoffs were a pipe dream by turkey day. I appreciate the effort it probably  took, but this team is in the thick of a wildcard race in great position with winnable games coming up. 

 

On the contrary. We're way out in front. 

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43 minutes ago, Forward Progress said:

I don’t want to derail your thread, Virgil, because It’s a well-thought look-ahead to the offseason.  I can’t tell you just how happy I am that we have meaningful football through December and into January.  
 

After many years of concerns that late-season wins would ruin our draft position and discussions like the one you are facilitating now, it’s really nice to only want more wins as we prepare for a playoff run. 
 

Anyway, back to your constructive conversation on the 2020 offseason. 


It’s nice to know we’ll pick in the 20’s or 30’s and that our depth and talent is so strong that I don’t care.  
 

Usually I'd be wondering how they were going to fill all their holes with so few picks 

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No need to extend anyone who isn’t a starter or play hardly other than ST snaps.... i.e. Coleman, Marlowe.

 

Also a FA replacement for Lorax who could be that stand up edge guy, Dline and drop back.... Bud Dupree from Pittsburgh.

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1 minute ago, CEN-CAL17 said:

No need to extend anyone who isn’t a starter or play hardly other than ST snaps.... i.e. Coleman, Marlowe.

 

Also a FA replacement for Lorax who could be that stand up edge guy, Dline and drop back.... Bud Dupree from Pittsburgh.


I think guys who can rotate in, know the system and the culture, and are under 3 mil are absolutely worth bringing vacuum 

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33 minutes ago, NickelCity said:

 

On the contrary. We're way out in front. 

That’s why I qualified it with “ in great position”. There is still a wildcard race in December, given the Bills schedule and the relatively easier schedule of their competitors. 

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4 minutes ago, ILBillsfan said:

Nice list and another thing to keep in mind is what will play into next years FA's and the way teams look at those coming up in 2021

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/26073422/nfl-cba-quirks-a-big-effect-2020-offseason

 

 


Interesting read.  Didn’t know that about Dak and Cooper.  That sucks that they’ll be able to keep both of them without actual deals.  
 

Was hoping for a shot at Cooper 

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By the way even though I dont like the Wallace at 8 million a year I def appreciate you writing all this out Virgil

 

Bottom line....when you have the key positions of a team nailed down....much easier to fill in the pieces year to year but I LOVE the idea of signing our own and continuity especially the offensive line

 

I think it will be interesting to see what they do with Spain....if he signs a deal that makes sense for us I think he stays.....especially if the long term plan really is Ford at RT.....we have a OL in Bates that we traded for that is sitting on the not active list every week that I feel is good enough to play somewhere on this line.

 

The nice thing about all this?  Because we have very few glaring holes and because we have like 90 million in cap space we are in the wonderful position of allowing the draft to come to us this year.......No WR worthy of a 1st round pick where we draft? (I think there will be)......but hey guess what....there is a very under rated pass rusher or corner sitting there at that 1st round pick......same in round 2....and round 3......drafting best talent available instead of drafting to fill a immediate need THAT is how you get those really good players

 

 

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1 hour ago, NickelCity said:

 

On the contrary. We're way out in front. 

Correct. We are in the thick of a Divisional race.

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6 hours ago, Virgil said:


Interesting read.  Didn’t know that about Dak and Cooper.  That sucks that they’ll be able to keep both of them without actual deals.  
 

Was hoping for a shot at Cooper 

Cooper by all accounts is really weird.   not sure I want that guy in my locker room.   character matters.  this isn't fantasy football. 

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11 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Dobbins would be a great pick to pair up with Singletary 

if they could snag dobbins in the late 2nd that would be a steal..after his performance in yesterday's Michigan game I think he'll go in the 1st unfortunately

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13 hours ago, Virgil said:

I'll be honest, Bills are 9-3, don't play tomorrow, and I'm not dreading the rest of the season.  I have absolutely no idea what to do with myself right now.  So, I'm going to look at the current FA class, mock drafts, and our salary cap to have some fun.  Feel free to play along or dismiss and move on.

 

Two thoughts:

- If you're bored already, you are not celebrating the Cowboys win long and hard enough. ;)

- More seriously, this is an exceptionally thoughtful post. Thank you for all the hard and good work.

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12 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

This seems like a post for years past, when the playoffs were a pipe dream by turkey day. I appreciate the effort it probably  took, but this team is in the thick of a wildcard race in great position with winnable games coming up. 

 

Hey, it's either this great informational post to keep @Virgil busy, or he'd be like this around his house....

 

 

Image result for homer simpson freaking out gif

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I have no idea where Jaylen Waddle from Alabama will go, or even if he will go to the NFL after this season or next, but damn that kid was SO impressive in the Iron Bowl last night.  I think he is around 5’10”, but he is clearly a sub 4.4 guy. 

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If Murphy gets cut and I believe he will, don’t they have to try and re-sign Lawson? Other wise they create a big hole.

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13 hours ago, elijah said:

you’re not paying 8 for Levi you’re likely letting Levi walk 

Ba-bye

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