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Virgil

Bored - Offseason Speculation

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Good post. It seems smart to cut ties with Murphy and Kroft. I’d like to find a way to keep Lawson if he is willing to take a somewhat reasonable contract. I think he is an ascending player at a position of need, especially if we cut ties with Murphy. I’d also like to extend Poyer as well as I don’t think he was on the OP list to extend. Essentially, we are in a pretty good spot and I want the Bills to spend all big money in house on guys that have produced. Spend the big money on Phillips, White and Milano and then use free agency to fill in the gaps with more low priced 1 and 2 year contracts. For the team culture and chemistry to continue, it would be best to spend on retaining your players and not using big money on guys outside the organization only to have to let some of your key guys go. 

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Cut DiMarco, Lee Smith, and Yeldon and save $5m . 
Don’t resign Gore save $2m
activate Sweeney next year for games

draft a running back in mid rounds and sign a FA running back like Dion Lewis out of Tenn. 

Would still save probably near $4m and not have silly penalties by Lee Smith.

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14 hours ago, Warcodered said:

I don't know but if they get a WR with a high pick I'm glad we've got Brown and Beasley leading that room as vets.

 

 

...according to our TBD collegiate ball gang, WR class in the "best in years".....although we seem to be having an epiphany on offense, think I'd still pick WR early on......

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13 hours ago, JR in Pittsburgh said:

Can’t believe I’m saying this, but wish we had picked up that 5th year option on Shaq. He’s come on pretty well, and would have been nice to have for a final year on his rookie year. 
 

I think we aren’t going to have much of a shot at getting either Clowney or Yannick.

Buffalo is going to be a very attractive destination for free agents now. an up and coming team, excellent facilities (best in the league?), camaraderie and a pretty good chance at a decent contract.

 

good times. 

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We have the money to go after several actually. Usually when signing big ticket FA's the first year salary is near vet minimum since they give them a big signing bonus...this makes the cap hit typically very low in the first year.

 

I am sure Beane could sign 2 or 3 big names and figure out how to make the cap work

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2 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

We have the money to go after several actually. Usually when signing big ticket FA's the first year salary is near vet minimum since they give them a big signing bonus...this makes the cap hit typically very low in the first year.

 

I am sure Beane could sign 2 or 3 big names and figure out how to make the cap work


I think we need to do the opposite.  We need to eat contracts on the front end.  In the next 2-3 years, we have to pay Dawkins, Tre, Allen, and Edmunds.  That’s probably 75 mil right there 

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3 minutes ago, Virgil said:


I think we need to do the opposite.  We need to eat contracts on the front end.  In the next 2-3 years, we have to pay Dawkins, Tre, Allen, and Edmunds.  That’s probably 75 mil right there 

 

Yeah but the cap will continue to go up so that the $75 million will eat up a smaller percentage of the cap each year.

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15 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

This seems like a post for years past, when the playoffs were a pipe dream by turkey day. I appreciate the effort it probably  took, but this team is in the thick of a wildcard race in great position with winnable games coming up. 

Right now it is Baltimore up next. Game of the week next week. 

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As far as our UFAs go my focus this offseason would be bringing back Spain. Don't let anyone from this o-line group get away since we finally have legitimate starters at every spot.

 

I fear that Lawson and J Phillips will get overpaid. Lawson defends the run quite well but his sacks are more a result of scheme than ability and I don't like the idea of paying big money for one good year. I'd try and get a hometown discount on a 3 year deal, if not let him walk. Phillips is a rotational player and exclusively rushes the passer. He's bad against the run. Same with Lawson, I wouldn't overpay him. Of the two I'd be more apt to re-sign Phillips since I know he can make game changing plays on his own.

 

With the cap space we save from Lawson and/or Phillips I'd offer Clowney or Ngakoue a deal well above market value and lock down a top pass rusher for the next 5 years. I'd also draft one high since Hughes looks to be done.

 

I'm actually counting on us signing AJ Green. I'll be more surprised if that doesn't happen. A solid insider on this board thought we were close to trading for him but it looks like Cincinnati didn't let it happen. Well now they look like fools and I think he is ready to escape that awful organization.

 

Per my above post I'd also offer a 4 year deal to Byron Jones, I have no doubt he would hit his ceiling in this scheme and with him and White on the field we would legitimately have a lock down secondary. Bring Kevin Johnson back as depth

 

I think we have more than enough cap space to make those moves and leave room for our young core as they approach the end of their rookie deals.

Edited by HappyDays

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14 hours ago, jwhit34 said:

 Way over valued a lot of players:

 

Q. Spain - At $7 million he would be the 13th highest paid G in the league. He's had a nice season but the Bills are not going to pay him 2x what they pay Feliciano (who has a #3.5M cap hit). He's at $2 mill this year, maybe he gets $3.5-4 mill. If not, the 2020 guards could be Feliciano and Ford. 

J. Phillips - Now you can say he's worth as much as Star L. but there's only 7 DTs making $11 mill. or more (cap hit). He's in for a nice payday, but he's not going from $4.5 to $11 Million. The other consideration here is that they have Star, Ed Oliver and Harrison Phillips and they have Phillips and Liuget in need of new contracts. I bet they only sign one they only need 1.


What’s the relevance of what they are being paid this year?

 

Spain and Philips got signed to one year” prove it” deals and they have been..

 

Our own John Miller ( remember how ordinary he was last year?) got signed to a three year $16.5M deal this year and he is a level below what Spain is showing... 

 

Id be fine with Spain at 3 years $18-21M.. he seems to like it here so he might go for $18M..

 

And yes... Feliciano is criminally underpaid as well... I would be looking at extending him this offseason and throwing him a few more dollars to keep him happy and out of free agency in 2021 even if that means they need to lose Spain..

 

Edited by Aussie Joe

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4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

As far as our UFAs go my focus this offseason would be bringing back Spain. Don't let anyone from this o-line group get away since we finally have legitimate starters at every spot.

 

I fear that Lawson and J Phillips will get overpaid. Lawson defends the run quite well but his sacks are more a result of scheme than ability and I don't like the idea of paying big money for one good year. I'd try and get a hometown discount on a 3 year deal, if not let him walk. Phillips is a rotational player and exclusively rushes the passer. He's bad against the run. Same with Lawson, I wouldn't overpay him. Of the two I'd be more apt to re-sign Phillips since I know he can make game changing plays on his own.

 

With the cap space we save from Lawson and/or Phillips I'd offer Clowney or Ngakoue a deal well above market value and lock down a top pass rusher for the next 5 years. I'd also draft one high since Hughes looks to be done.

 

I'm actually counting on us signing AJ Green. I'll be more surprised if that doesn't happen. A solid insider on this board thought we were close to trading for him but it looks like Cincinnati didn't let it happen. Well now they look like fools and I think he is ready to escape that awful organization.

 

Per my above post I'd also offer a 4 year deal to Byron Jones, I have no doubt he would hit his ceiling in this scheme and with him and White on the field we would legitimately have a lock down secondary. Bring Kevin Johnson back as depth

 

I think we have more than enough cap space to make those moves and leave room for our young core as they approach the end of their rookie deals.

Green fits the bill with what this regime likes to do in FA.

 

Take chances on solid players who are somewhat of a risk due to prior injuries. I think your right. He will be a Bill.

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Gotta give Beane credit for the way he structured many of the FA signings. He's had a number of misses, but he's built in an easy out with the majority of the UFA signings.

 

They've got flexibility and can pretty much cut anyone they view as a liability and resign anyone they view as indispensable.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Take chances on solid players who are somewhat of a risk due to prior injuries. I think your right. He will be a Bill.

 

I don't even think he's that big a risk. The whole Bengals organization is awful from top to bottom. Bad field conditions and probably a bad training and medical staff. I bet he will magically heal and avoid re-injury as soon as he goes to a new team.

 

The only thing that makes me hesitant is this WR draft class is supposed to be historically good. If we have Green and Brown and Beasley I'm not sure where an early draft pick would fit in. But that would be a good problem to have if it comes to it.

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Just now, HappyDays said:

 

I don't even think he's that big a risk. The whole Bengals organization is awful from top to bottom. Bad field conditions and probably a bad training and medical staff. I bet he will magically heal and avoid re-injury as soon as he goes to a new team.

 

The only thing that makes me hesitant is this WR draft class is supposed to be historically good. If we have Green and Brown and Beasley I'm not sure where an early draft pick would fit in. But that would be a good problem to have if it comes to it.

I don’t either. I think they sign him and should draft one within the first 3 rounds. They need depth at the position because right now they don’t have it. Two solid additions would be huge.

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This might be a draft where they trade out if the first round to garner more selections since they have no glaring needs.  Drafting a WR is a given.  Where else would they target?  I wager CB and OLB are areas they will add talent.

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Sign green to a short deal cause if we pick in the 20s there could be 4 wrs gone.  Better to get maybe the 2nd best lb than the 5th best wr in the first.  I’d love to sign a vet corner maybe like Harris to a short deal as well. 
 

gotta draft well and keep the cap flexible.  Look at how the pats and steelers spend their money and draft picks. Two very successful teams

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Poyer and Felicano “play out”. No way. No reason. No how. Not gonna happen. 

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Lots of options/decisions and I trust Beane and company to get a majority of them correct. Also, how much do we save when we cut Hauschka? 

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On 12/1/2019 at 1:29 PM, ElMarko said:

Poyer and Felicano “play out”. No way. No reason. No how. Not gonna happen. 


I would argue that Poyer gets cheaper each year.  He hasn’t made the big plays like before.  I see no need to re-sign him early.  
 

Feliciano didn’t even start.  I’m not worried about a holdout or needing to match high money elsewhere 

Edited by Virgil

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Bills fans can’t stop themselves from dreaming about the offseason in November even when they are squarely in the playoff hunt. 

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1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

As far as our UFAs go my focus this offseason would be bringing back Spain. Don't let anyone from this o-line group get away since we finally have legitimate starters at every spot.

 

I fear that Lawson and J Phillips will get overpaid. Lawson defends the run quite well but his sacks are more a result of scheme than ability and I don't like the idea of paying big money for one good year. I'd try and get a hometown discount on a 3 year deal, if not let him walk. Phillips is a rotational player and exclusively rushes the passer. He's bad against the run. Same with Lawson, I wouldn't overpay him. Of the two I'd be more apt to re-sign Phillips since I know he can make game changing plays on his own.

 

With the cap space we save from Lawson and/or Phillips I'd offer Clowney or Ngakoue a deal well above market value and lock down a top pass rusher for the next 5 years. I'd also draft one high since Hughes looks to be done.

 

I'm actually counting on us signing AJ Green. I'll be more surprised if that doesn't happen. A solid insider on this board thought we were close to trading for him but it looks like Cincinnati didn't let it happen. Well now they look like fools and I think he is ready to escape that awful organization.

 

Per my above post I'd also offer a 4 year deal to Byron Jones, I have no doubt he would hit his ceiling in this scheme and with him and White on the field we would legitimately have a lock down secondary. Bring Kevin Johnson back as depth

 

I think we have more than enough cap space to make those moves and leave room for our young core as they approach the end of their rookie deals.

 

 

Yeah @eMoulds is who I think you refer to.

 

I don't know about paying a young CB with White so close to needing a deal.............what about the LB position?  

 

 

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19 hours ago, Virgil said:

I'll be honest, Bills are 9-3, don't play tomorrow, and I'm not dreading the rest of the season.  I have absolutely no idea what to do with myself right now.  So, I'm going to look at the current FA class, mock drafts, and our salary cap to have some fun.  Feel free to play along or dismiss and move on.

 

Salary Cap Space: 91 Million (26 mil in rollover, 1 mil in dead cap (Wow Beane!))

Draft Position:  25th (I'm giving us a first round win)

 

Current Starters - Unrestricted FA's: 

Jordan Phillips - Re-sign - 11 mil

Lorax (Retiring)

Kevin Johnson - Re-sign - 5 mil

Shaq Lawson - Let him test the market (probably not re-signed)

Quinton Spain - Re-Sign - 7 mil

Frank Gore - Let Go

Kurt Coleman - Re-Sign - 3 mil

Corey Liuget - Re-Sign - 4.5 mil

Dean Marlowe - Re-Sign - 2 mil

Isiah McKenzie - Re-Sign -  3 mil

Duke Williams - Not enough room on roster, drafting a WR

Total Spent on Re-Signings = 35.5 Mil

 

Starting Players heading into last year of deal:

Trent Murphy - Cut (Save 7.2 Million.  Dead hit of 1.75 mil)

Ty Yeldon - Cut (Save 1.6 Mil.  Dead 250k)

Ty Nsekhe - Let play out

Jon Feliciano - Let Play Out

Jordan Poyer - Let Play Out

Tre White - Trigger 5th year option

Andre Roberts - Let Play Out

Patrick DiMarco - Let Play Out

Matt Barkley - Let Play Out

Dion Dawkins - Extend - 14 Mil per

Matt Milano - Extend - 8 Mil per

Corey Bojorquez - Let Play Out

Total Spent on Extensions - 13.2 Mil (with the cuts)

 

***Total Cap Remaining for Additional Free Agents - 42.2 mil

 

Positions of Interest:

OLB - Lorax is retiring

DE - Murphy and Shaq could be gone

WR - Need a big bodied #1

RB - Backup to Singletary

OLB/MLB - Depth

 

2020 Free Agents (In order of rank from NFL.com and projected contract from Spodrac)

OLB/Edge - Jadeveon Clowney (20.3 mil) Seahawks have 78 mil in cap space

DE - Yannick Ngakoue (17.4 mil) Jaguars with only 7.5 mil in cap space

OLB/Edge - Bud Dupree

OLB/Edge - Shaq Barrett

WR - AJ Green

OT - Anthony Castonzo

DT - Gerald McCoy

DE - Arik Armstead

DT - DJ Reader

OLB/Edge - Matthew Judon

OLB/Edge - Dante Fowler Jr (10.5 mil)

TE - Austin Hooper

TE - Hunter Henry

DT - Javon Hargrave

WR - Amari Cooper (18.7 mil)

 

Mock Draft Results

Walter Football - 1st - Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU, 2nd - Yasir Durant, OT, Missouri, 3rd - Eno Benjamin, RB, Arizona State

Draftek - 1st - Laviska Shenault, WR, Colorado, 2nd - JK Dobbins, RB, Ohio St, 3rd - Jaylon Johnson, DB, Utah

Phinsider - 1st - Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU, 2nd - Solomon Kindley, G, Georgia

Draftsite - 1st - Antonio Golden, WR, Liberty, 2nd - Calvin Throckmorton, OT, Oregon, 3rd - Jabari Zuniga, DE, Florida

 

 

The long and short of it, we have the money to go after one major prize FA, but I don't see us spending 15+ mil on anyone that's not our own.  Yannick would be the most realistic option for us if we do decide to go after someone.  Everyone else is going to be mid-tier, which has worked for us thus far.  I'm the most concerned about replacing Lorax, but there are quite a few mid-tier guys out there.  Wide Receiver is another position I think will be focused on, and every mock has us going there with our 1st pick.  Fortunately, it's a deep draft there.

 

For those wondering tops at those positions:

 

FA Wide Receivers

AJ Green

Larry Fitzgerald

Emmanuel Sanders

Devin Funchess

Amari Cooper

DeVante Parker

Randall Cobb

Danny Amendola

Travis Benjamin

Bershad Perriman

Robby Anderson

 

FA OLB

Dante Fowler

Mario Addison

Whitney Mercilus

AJ Klein

Terrell Suggs

Mychal Hendricks

Shaquil Barrett

Bruce Irvin

Shaq Thompson

 

Projected Possible 1st Round WR (My Choice is to see which one over 6'2 falls to the second and trade up)

Jerry Jeudy, Alabama, 6'1", 4.45

Laviska Shenault Jr, Colorado, 6'2", 4.52

CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma, 6'2" 4.55

Jalen Reagor, TCU, 5'11", 4.35

Antonio Gandy-Golden, Liberty, 6'4", 4.54

Henry Ruggs 3rd, Alabama, 6', 4.4

Justin Jefferson, LSU, 6'3", 4.5

Tamorrion Terry, Florida State, 6'4", 4.5

Gabriel Davis, UCF, 6'3", 4.5

DeVonta Smith, Alabama, 6'1", 4.45

Tee Higgins, Clemson, 6'4" 4.55

 

Projected Possible 1st Round OLB

Isaiah Simmons, Clemson *My Choice for our 1st pick)

Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma (OLB/ILB)

Terrell Lewis, Alabama (OLB/ILB)

Jon Greenard, Florida (OLB/DE)

Julian Okwara, Notre Dame

Anfernee Jennings, Alabama (OLB/ILB)

 

 

Alright, that's all I got.  This was more for me than everyone else to just look around at what's going on.  It's strange to not have to care that much about this as we hit December.  But I enjoy these kinds of things.  @whatdrought@BuffaloHokie13Get ready for the mock drafts

 

 

So if you sign Phillips and Liuget  you'd have 5 tackles on the roster, can't see that happening.  Oliver will be the starter, can't see paying big $$ for a backup so may be that Liuget  is the more economical option particularly since Phillips is having a pretty strong year and be able to get big money.  Admittedly the Bills do like rotating players, but still only keeping four.  To me the only way it would make sense to sign both would be sign Liuget on a real cheap contract that you can easily trade or cut at the end of pre-season just in case another DT is injured.

 

I think I'd try to sign either Lawson or keep Murphy, don't want to try and find two new DE for next season.  Personally I'd use their #1 round pick on DE, sign a mid range FA and then also have either Lawson or Murphy

 

I'll be surprised if they re-sign Spain as I think they'd prefer drafting a rookie in the 2nd or 3rd round for that position.

 

Not sure if I really want to see them sign a FA #1 WR, maybe would rather see them sign a guy like Parker, Anderson, or Cobb. Would also use a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a WR,  maybe a guy who is expected to become real good, but might take a year or two to get there.  Un the mean time having one of them, plus Brown and Beasley as your starters would be pretty good and likely be a cheaper option.

 

My draft picks would be

1st DE/OLB

2nd and 3rd  Guard and WR in whatever order

 

My top FA signings would be strong #2 type WR, OLB/DE, mid tier OT, kicker, big strong RB.  With the exception of the OLB/DE others more strong, but not top salary players.

 

PS  Thought I heard here Von Miller was also a FA after this year??

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