2019 Playoffs. 1st round

[Bronxbomber21]

1 hour ago, rayray808 said:

If we win out and the Pats lose to the Texans and Chiefs we get the one seed

U asking alot. What about Baltimore

Edited November 18, 2019 by Bronxbomber21

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, Tesla03 said:

Steelers could very well win out and finish 11-5. their schedule is a joke. 

 

They have to play the Browns again who just beat them. Ravens. Plus us. Throw in Rudolph playing like a scrub and I can't see them finishing better than  4-2.

 

I've heard people say the Browns can win it. Certainly looks more doable then the Steelers winning out, but again they have to play the Ravens. And Browns literally have no room for error sitting on 6 losses already.

1 hour ago, Tesla03 said:

 

lol have you seen their schedule? 

 

 

Is Rudolph suddenly going to play well? Why are you so confident they will beat the Browns in two weeks? They could very easily lose to Arizona even.

 

I would be much more concerned about the Steelers had the Browns not handed them a 5th loss last week. 

Edited November 18, 2019 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[ganesh]

3 hours ago, Do The Reich Thing said:

bro chill... 10-6 will get us in and the Steelers aren't winning out with all those injuries

and 4 of their last 6 is on the road.

[Chandler#81]

4 hours ago, Bronxbomber21 said:

It looks like where better of being the 6th seed

 

You, Sir, are Under Arrest!

 

2 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

They have to play the Browns again who just beat them. Ravens. Plus us. Throw in Rudolph playing like a scrub and I can't see them finishing better than  4-2.

 

I've heard people say the Browns can win it. Certainly looks more doable then the Steelers winning out, but again they have to play the Ravens. And Browns literally have no room for error sitting on 6 losses already.

 

Is Rudolph suddenly going to play well? Why are you so confident they will beat the Browns in two weeks? They could very easily lose to Arizona even.

 

I would be much more concerned about the Steelers had the Browns not handed them a 5th loss last week. 

Please don’t feed the Trolls. (That’s my job!?)

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

9 hours ago, Bronxbomber21 said:

Who are we rooting for tomorrow KC or Chargers?

I believe you want KC as they lead the division

 

 

[Greg S]

I guess we are all Jets fans this week. I actually think at home they can beat the Raiders. Oakland wasn't that impressive yesterday and Darnold has been playing better lately granted against crap teams. I have no hope that Pitt loses to the Bengals this week but I can see a Jets upset. Oakland is listed as a 3 point favorite so Vegas thinks it will be a close game. For this week only J.E.T.S....JETS,JETS,JETS

 

 

[mikemac2001]

7 hours ago, Bronxbomber21 said:

U asking alot. What about Baltimore

we play Baltimore so when he states we win out that means we own the tiebreaker vs them

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

9 hours ago, Do The Reich Thing said:

bro chill... 10-6 will get us in and the Steelers aren't winning out with all those injuries

Id love to know how often 10-6 teams make it to the playoffs. I feel like every year we are told 9 wins won’t do it, and every year a 9 win team gets in the playoffs. 

[Greg S]

Just now, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

Id love to know how often 10-6 teams make it to the playoffs. I feel like every year we are told 9 wins won’t do it, and every year a 9 win team gets in the playoffs. 

I think 9 might do it as the AFC is having a down year. The NFC you better get 10 at least.

[Big Turk]

10 hours ago, ganesh said:

Actually Oakland and Pittsburgh have to play 4 of their six games ON THE ROAD. 

 

Oakland plays 4 of the remaining six on the Road:  at Jets (3-7), at Chiefs (6-4), vs. Titans (5-5), vs. Jaguars (4-6), at Chargers (4-6), at Broncos (3-7) With a lot of AFC West Divisional games which are not gimmies.  Other than the Jets game, I don't see any easy games. 

 

Pittsburgh does have an easier schedule, but have injuries all around them.  at Bengals (0-10), vs. Browns (4-6), at Cardinals (3-7-1), vs. Bills (7-3), at Jets (3-7), at Ravens (8-2)  

injuries  Pittsburgh will find it it difficult to beat the Browns and Ravens (Unless Ravens have the 1st round bye and Home Field wrapped up before that game).  

 

I think the TItans are going to be the team to watch.

 

 

The Titans are done

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

14 minutes ago, Greg S said:

I think 9 might do it as the AFC is having a down year. The NFC you better get 10 at least.

 

I agree.  

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Week 11 NFL playoff picture: Patriots, Ravens running away with AFC

 

2019 NFL playoff picture: AFC, NFC standings, seeds and outlook through Week 11

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28103715/2019-nfl-playoff-picture-afc-nfc-standings-seeds-outlook-week-11

 

# 5 seed. Buffalo Bills (7-3)

The Bills' win in Miami didn't do anything to change the perception that they've feasted on bad teams. Their strength of victory (.214) is by far the lowest of any team among the top six seeds in either conference. But the Bills have only two games remaining against teams with losing records: Week 12 against the Broncos and Week 17 against the Jets. Wins in those two games, and perhaps one other, might be enough to get them into the postseason. FPI is pegging their chances at 63.4%.

 

Next up: vs. Denver

Edited November 18, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost

[MAJBobby]

Here is Football Outsiders playoff Odds.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

 

Team	W-L	WEI DVOA	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
NE	9-1	35.7%	13.6	70.0%	26.3%	2.8%	0.5%	0.5%	0.0%	99.5%	96.3%	0.5%	100.0%	0.1%
BUF	7-3	-8.6%	9.2	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	38.1%	21.0%	0.5%	0.5%	59.1%	59.6%	13.2%
NYJ	3-7	-9.8%	5.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	0.4%	0.1%
MIA	2-8	-39.0%	3.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0%

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

55 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Here is Football Outsiders playoff Odds.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

 

Team	W-L	WEI DVOA	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
NE	9-1	35.7%	13.6	70.0%	26.3%	2.8%	0.5%	0.5%	0.0%	99.5%	96.3%	0.5%	100.0%	0.1%
BUF	7-3	-8.6%	9.2	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	38.1%	21.0%	0.5%	0.5%	59.1%	59.6%	13.2%
NYJ	3-7	-9.8%	5.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	0.4%	0.1%
MIA	2-8	-39.0%	3.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0%

 

59?

 

I'll take the odds listed at 63.4%  and 68% please and thanks

Edited November 18, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

AFCE week 12 rooting interest

 

Favorite		Underdog
@Buffalo	vs	Denver
@Houston	vs	Indianapolis
Pittsburgh	vs	@Cincinnati
@Cleveland	vs	Miami
Oakland	vs	@New York (NYJ)
@New England	vs	Dallas
Baltimore	vs	@Los Angeles (LAR)
@Tennessee	vs	Jacksonville

 

KC * plays "International" against the Chargers so both get a bye week. 

 

#1 Cheaters

#2 Cravens

#3 Colts - Wins tie break over Kansas City based on head-to-head win percentage

#4 Chiefs  *   -  Wins tie break over Oakland based on head-to-head win percentage.

#5 Bills

#6 Houston   -  Wins tie break over Oakland based on head-to-head win percentage.

#7  Raiders

#8 Stillers   -  Wins tie break over Tennessee based on best win percentage in conference games.

#9 Titans 

 

IF KC loses tonight... The Raiders take control of the West

Edited November 18, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost

[ngbills]

Nothing changed after this Sunday.

 

Key games are still DAL, BAL, PIT. We lose two of those and we are potentially in trouble. Raiders are likely 11-5 or 10-6. PIT could wind up 11-5 or 10-6. CLE could be 10-6 and own win over Bills. IND could wind up 11-5 or 10-6. 

[Mango]

1 hour ago, ngbills said:

Nothing changed after this Sunday.

 

Key games are still DAL, BAL, PIT. We lose two of those and we are potentially in trouble. Raiders are likely 11-5 or 10-6. PIT could wind up 11-5 or 10-6. CLE could be 10-6 and own win over Bills. IND could wind up 11-5 or 10-6. 

 

This!

 

Cleveland beating Pitt was helpful, but they are still the most meaningful game on our schedule going forward. Should note, ESPN still has us as favorites on Thanksgiving vs. Dallas and as favorites against Pitt in Pitt. 

 

EDIT: Just playing with the calculator, if CLE wins out, they do not need much to make the playoffs. Baltimore is easily their toughest. Did not realize. 

Edited November 18, 2019 by Mango

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

1 hour ago, ngbills said:

Nothing changed after this Sunday.

 

Key games are still DAL, BAL, PIT. We lose two of those and we are potentially in trouble. Raiders are likely 11-5 or 10-6. PIT could wind up 11-5 or 10-6. CLE could be 10-6 and own win over Bills. IND could wind up 11-5 or 10-6. 

Cleveland is not ending the year on a 8 game winning streak especially with no Garrett. I think the Raiders end 10-6 at best and Pit isn't finishing the year winning 10 of it's last 11 or even winning 9 of their last 11. 

[Jrb1979]

5 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

Cleveland is not ending the year on a 8 game winning streak especially with no Garrett. I think the Raiders end 10-6 at best and Pit isn't finishing the year winning 10 of it's last 11 or even winning 9 of their last 11. 

If the Bills don't go 3-3 the rest of the way I doubt they make it. Its going to be Colts or Houston in the one wild card and Raiders taking the other. 

[ngbills]

1 minute ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

Cleveland is not ending the year on a 8 game winning streak especially with no Garrett. I think the Raiders end 10-6 at best and Pit isn't finishing the year winning 10 of it's last 11 or even winning 9 of their last 11. 

CLE plays CIN x2, MIA, AZ. Those are 4 easy wins. The PIT game will be big. Then they play BAL late. They are between 10-6 and 8-8 pretty easily.

PIT plays CIN, NYJ, AZ. Those should be 3 easy ones. They play BAL week 17 so BAL could have nothing to play for. Key games will be CLE and Bills games. They are between 11-5 and 9-7 quite easily.

OAK plays NYJ, DEN and that gets them 8 very easily. They win 3 of these to get to 11 - JAC, TEN, LAC, KC.

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

29 minutes ago, ngbills said:

CLE plays CIN x2, MIA, AZ. Those are 4 easy wins. The PIT game will be big. Then they play BAL late. They are between 10-6 and 8-8 pretty easily.

PIT plays CIN, NYJ, AZ. Those should be 3 easy ones. They play BAL week 17 so BAL could have nothing to play for. Key games will be CLE and Bills games. They are between 11-5 and 9-7 quite easily.

OAK plays NYJ, DEN and that gets them 8 very easily. They win 3 of these to get to 11 - JAC, TEN, LAC, KC.

 

CLE

MIA prob not.  At Steelers ... they could lose.  Bengals need to win something. @AZ does have a chance to beat them. Cravens and then the Bungles again .  I see at least 2 maybe 3 losses. 

 

IF they win every game out and others LOSE, then yes, the Browns can make the playoffs 

Edited November 18, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost

[section122]

15 hours ago, rayray808 said:

If we win out and the Pats lose to the Texans and Chiefs we get the one seed

 

Thank you!!!  Everyone here is talking wild card and not division.  Patriots are not as strong as they were and Brady is looking looonnnnggg in the tooth.  Bills are 7-3 I'm rooting for the AFC East title!  13-3 Baby!!!

[ngbills]

2 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

CLE

MIA prob not.  At Steelers ... they could lose.  Bengals need to win something. @AZ does have a chance to beat them. Cravens and then the Bungles again .  I see at least 2 maybe 3 losses. 

 

IF they win every game out and others LOSE, then yes, the Browns can make the playoffs 

Browns are lowest on the list of concerns.

 

PIT and OAK are right there though with easy schedules.

 

Bottom line - Bills win games they should vs DEN and NYJ. Then take 2 of 4 vs PIT, BAL, NE, DAL. 

[Tortured Soul]

Thought this was interesting:

 

If you put the 538 expected winners into the NYT playoff simulator, the season comes down to the Week 17 game between the Colts and Jaguars, which 538 projects as a 50/50 tossup.

[Franco_92]

It's so easy to get anxious about the amount of teams that still COULD finish at 10-6 or 11-5, but it's literally always like that around week 11 even in down years. There is simply almost no chance that all of Cleveland, Indy, Oakland, and Pittsburgh finish with one of these records. 2, if not 3, will slide into the 7-9 win range. 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

10 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

I believe you want KC as they lead the division

 

 

I agree. But a charger win isn’t the worst thing either 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

I agree. But a charger win isn’t the worst thing either 

This

[EmotionallyUnstable]

9 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

I agree. But a charger win isn’t the worst thing either 

 

7 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

This

a loss for them essentially kills their dwindling WC hopes. And might give us a good team to root for down the road, as they will still have games against the Chiefs and Raiders. 

 

I think the Raiders have a dangerously easy schedule the rest of the way. And the Chiefs have tough sledding. Idk if it’s best that the West best each other up, or one team runs away with the division and we root against the other 

[Dablitzkrieg]

I'm hearing both sides of the argument and trying to figure out who to root for tonight?

[ngbills]

38 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

I agree. But a charger win isn’t the worst thing either 

 

37 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

This

 

27 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

 

a loss for them essentially kills their dwindling WC hopes. And might give us a good team to root for down the road, as they will still have games against the Chiefs and Raiders. 

 

I think the Raiders have a dangerously easy schedule the rest of the way. And the Chiefs have tough sledding. Idk if it’s best that the West best each other up, or one team runs away with the division and we root against the other 

Interestingly - If you pick the better D to win each game the rest of the season by ESPN default option. Guess who makes it? Chargers...finishing 9-7 with wins over KC, JAC, MIN, OAK and KC again. Loss is to DEN. Dont see that happening but interesting nonetheless. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 hours ago, ngbills said:

 

 

Interestingly - If you pick the better D to win each game the rest of the season by ESPN default option. Guess who makes it? Chargers...finishing 9-7 with wins over KC, JAC, MIN, OAK and KC again. Loss is to DEN. Dont see that happening but interesting nonetheless. 

odd when I did that the Browns got in at #6

 

Edited November 19, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

 

 

[ComradeKayAdams]

I'm thinking now that the Chiefs, Raiders, Patriots, and Ravens make it. That leaves Buffalo and the AFC South winner to fend off the Steelers and the rest of the AFC South pack. So that Colts-Texans matchup Sunday is a big one for Buffalo. I think we should be rooting for Houston because of their conference records.

[Jrb1979]

42 minutes ago, KayAdams said:

I'm thinking now that the Chiefs, Raiders, Patriots, and Ravens make it. That leaves Buffalo and the AFC South winner to fend off the Steelers and the rest of the AFC South pack. So that Colts-Texans matchup Sunday is a big one for Buffalo. I think we should be rooting for Houston because of their conference records.

Buffalo has to go 3-3 to make it. If they only beat Denver and the Jets they most likely don't make it in. 

[Big Turk]

10 hours ago, ngbills said:

CLE plays CIN x2, MIA, AZ. Those are 4 easy wins. The PIT game will be big. Then they play BAL late. They are between 10-6 and 8-8 pretty easily.

PIT plays CIN, NYJ, AZ. Those should be 3 easy ones. They play BAL week 17 so BAL could have nothing to play for. Key games will be CLE and Bills games. They are between 11-5 and 9-7 quite easily.

OAK plays NYJ, DEN and that gets them 8 very easily. They win 3 of these to get to 11 - JAC, TEN, LAC, KC.

 

 

Cleveland is not going to make the playoffs...Miami is not an easy win...and Cincinnati will probably beat them once...they have to win a game somewhere.

 

I mean people already are figuring out who is going to win and lose before the games are even played....doesnt work like that. I'll guarantee you at least 3 of your above predictions are wrong. It's a week to week league, every week is different and you don't know who is going to be hurt for all pf these games...

 

 

538 lists the Bills as having a 71% chance of making the playoffs, far and away the highest of any wild card team.

 

Indy is second with a 54% chance and nobody else is above 40%. Houston is predicted to win the AFC South with a 71% chance of making the playoffs.

 

Edited November 19, 2019 by matter2003

[Tesla03]

its 10-6 or bust this year. Raiders aren't losing more than 2 games with that schedule

 

question is who wins the tie breaker if we are both 10-6 

[ganesh]

14 hours ago, ngbills said:

Nothing changed after this Sunday.

 

Key games are still DAL, BAL, PIT. We lose two of those and we are potentially in trouble. Raiders are likely 11-5 or 10-6. PIT could wind up 11-5 or 10-6. CLE could be 10-6 and own win over Bills. IND could wind up 11-5 or 10-6. 

People keep giving this freebie to Oakland.  Oakland plays 4 of the last six  ON THE ROAD.  Those are not easy wins.    The same goes for Pittsburgh.  Both have a pretty hard road to the playoffs.

[Greg S]

6 hours ago, Tesla03 said:

its 10-6 or bust this year. Raiders aren't losing more than 2 games with that schedule

 

question is who wins the tie breaker if we are both 10-6 

 

They barely beat the Bengals at home so maybe they stumble along the way. I actually think(hope) the Jets can upset them at MetLife this week.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

AFC
SEED	TEAM	DIVISION	RECORD
1	New England	East	9-1-0
2	Baltimore	North	8-2-0
3	Kansas City	West	7-4-0
4	Indianapolis	South	6-4-0
5	Buffalo	East	7-3-0
6	Houston	South	6-4-0
STILL ALIVE
SEED	TEAM	DIVISION	RECORD
7	Oakland	West	6-4-0
8	Pittsburgh	North	5-5-0
9	Tennessee	South	5-5-0
10	Cleveland	North	4-6-0

AFC tiebreakers:

• Indianapolis is ahead of Houston in the AFC South based on head to head (1-0).
• Houston is ahead of Oakland based on head to head (1-0).
• Pittsburgh is ahead of Tennessee based on conference record (4-3 to the Titans' 3-4).
• Cleveland is ahead of Jacksonville based on conference record (Browns' 4-3 to the Jaguars' 4-4).
• Denver is ahead of the N.Y. Jets based on conference record (3-4 to the Jets' 0-6).

 

NFC tiebreakers:

• Green Bay is ahead of New Orleans based on conference record (5-1 to the Saints' 6-2).
• Philadelphia is ahead of Carolina based on conference record (3-4 to the Panthers' 2-5).
• Detroit is ahead of Arizona based on conference record (2-4-1 to the Cardinals' 2-5-1).
• Atlanta is ahead of Tampa Bay in the NFC South based on division record (2-0 to the Buccaneers' 1-3).

Maintain the 3rd best record in the AFC and they are a lock to get in.  which is a pity because it just gets them a WC. 

 

 

NYTimes says 

Steelers  47%

Colts 45%

Raiders 45%

Edited November 19, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost

[InTheBuffAllTheTime]

I'm also guilty of looking at the standings and remaining schedules to figure out the Bills' playoff path. Certainly I'm going to root in any individual non-Bills game for the best outcome that helps the Bills as in this thread. But......this type of analysis (below) is Bills fandom (and media) stuck in the Bills' miserable past.

 

Top Wild Card: Buffalo Bills

Current record: 7-3

Likely wins remaining: 2 (vs DEN, vs NYJ)

Likely losses remaining: 3 (at DAL, vs BAL, at NE)

Toss-ups remaining: 1 (at PIT)

 

The miserable past had fans clinging to remote hopes that the stars would align for opponent losses and tie-breakers would fall in the Bills' favor.

 

Likely losses????? Really??? I am going to choose to embrace The Process. Pretty sure the conversation in the locker room this week isn't "we gotta win this one cause we have some likely losses coming up". Like the players, I expect to win every one of the next 6 "this week's games". The Bills are in the driver's seat here. This year the other teams are praying for Bills' losses. Enjoy the ride. It's been a while.