Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[Dr. Who]

12 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

That's all good and well, but the problem with this stat is that his YPA increased by a mere .1. As much progress as he made, he still only increased that number from 6.6 to 6.7. The key for Allen is not necessarily completion percentage, but yards per attempt. I don't care if his completion percentage remains stagnant if that YPA jumps into the 7.5 range. Air yards only matter if you're completing enough of the shots.

Has to fix the long ball issue. That happens, the YPA problem goes away. Hoping an off-season where that is a focus and the addition of playmakers, especially WR1 does the trick. (Also really need to still improve the O-line, imo.) I think it's reasonable to be hopeful it will happen and until proven otherwise, I'm going to stick with that.

Edited January 25, 2020 by Dr. Who

[LSHMEAB]

7 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Has to fix the long ball issue. That happens, the YPA problem goes away. Hoping an off-season where that is a focus and the addition of playmakers, especially WR1 does the trick. (Also really need to still improve the O-line, imo.) I think it's reasonable to be hopeful it will happen and until proven otherwise, I'm going to stick with that.

That's exactly right. We keep focusing on completion percentage, but he's never going to be a 70 percent passer. What he does need to do to be that "gunslinger" is hit those deep shots. Start hitting those with regularity and it doesn't really matter if you're right around 60 percent.

[Billl]

3 hours ago, Mango said:

 

 

 

 

 

I was originally talking about Allen's clunkers, where he failed to connect on at least 50% of his passes. I was asserting that when that happens, more often than not, most of the blame falls on the QB. Yes there is also blame on things like the OL, Defense, WR, etc. but largely, having a high frequency of games sub 50% is an issue with the passer himself. 

 

For reference, I quickly grabbed sub 50% completion games for QB's in their first 2 years/32 games, since 2000  Here are the bottom 20. It is not a great list

 

Granted there are some outliers, but it is not a great list of QB's. Most (not all) of which we would say were not good passers. The search function on PFR is awesome. 

 

Name	Number of Games Under 50% passing
Tim Tebow	10
Eli Manning	9
Joey Harrington	8
Michael Vick	8
Vince Young	8
Josh Allen	7
David Carr	7
Joe Flacco	7
Blaine Gabbert	7
Andrew Luck	7
Mike McMahon	7
Kyle Orton	7
Patrick Ramsey	7
JaMarcus Russell	7
Mark Sanchez	7
DeShone Kizer	6
Colt McCoy	6
Christian Ponder	6
Geno Smith	6
Brandon Weeden	6

 

 

Watson, Mahomes, and Jackson in their entire careers combined:  1

[Mango]

3 minutes ago, Billl said:

Watson, Mahomes, and Jackson in their entire careers combined:  1

Yeah. It’s not really a hodge-podge. I was hoping it was. I kept talking about these 50% games, so I thought I would dig into it. Hoping to see Brady, Rodgers, Wilson,  mixed with Dalton, Stanford, and of course some Jamarcus Russel. 
 

It’s basically a list of 17 average to bad passers, plus Luck (surprised), Eli (Meh passer), and super athlete Vick (bad passer)

[Billl]

1 minute ago, Mango said:

Yeah. It’s not really a hodge-podge. I was hoping it was. I kept talking about these 50% games, so I thought I would dig into it. Hoping to see Brady, Rodgers, Wilson,  mixed with Dalton, Stanford, and of course some Jamarcus Russel. 
 

It’s basically a list of 17 average to bad passers, plus Luck (surprised), Eli (Meh passer), and super athlete Vick (bad passer)

The reality is that every question will be answered this time next year.  As it currently stands, the Bills have the best roster in the East by a comfortable margin.  If he’s legit, the division runs through Buffalo for the next few years.  

[BigBillsFan]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I was going to go into this bit by bit, but the board dumped my response - probably just as well.

 

Let's just note that 4 of Allen's 7 games you list occurred his rookie season, when he was thrown into it halfway through Game 1 without the benefit of the 1st string reps (that's one of the games).  In another, Allen's 4th game against GB, we rushed for 58 freakin' yards (of which 19 were Allen's) and asked him to pass 33 times against GB's confusing coverage and rush.  We have the GM openly acknowledging "he didn't do enough" to put an OL and skill weapons around Allen that season.

 

And you want to use that to make a case that it's 50% the QB's fault when he doesn't hit 50% completions, because you assert that it's so?

 

What can I say.  We must agree to disagree, and that's That.

 

I note that there are 20 names on that list.  4 of them are QB with Superbowl wins, playoff appearances, probowl appearances, distinguished careers. 

 

 

Sorry but that's pretty far fetched. Playoffs appearances are meaningless to that list. Mark Sanchez didn't lead the Jets, the Jets led him to the AFC championship game.

 

The only 2 QBs on that list that "won" with their talent was Flacco and Manning who are the definition of hot and cold QBs. They got super hot in the post-season. Flacco was truly a "meh" QB most of his career. Luck was a good talent certainly as well. Flacco I wouldn't consider good at all.

 

What we're saying then is 2 out of 20 QBs had a decent career. Which means 9 out of 10 didn't. That puts the % of success at 10%. There is statistical relevancy.

Edited January 25, 2020 by BigBillsFan

[transplantbillsfan]

On 1/23/2020 at 4:24 AM, Foxx said:

i'm not so sure.

 

first of all, your post has a typo, Prescott throwing to Prescott.

 

i think the main reason for Brown and Beasers 'career' years were the result of being the the top two available guys more than anything else.

 

 

In 2015 Brown was playing WR2 to Larry Fitzgerald who had 54 more receptions, 212 more yards and 2 more TDs. Fitz was still clearly still the #1.

 

I mean I guess you can argue Beasley was the #1 WR in 2016 for the Cowgirls because he had the most targets and yards, but he was playing between Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams. Both still very effective WRs with Williams coming off his career year.

[Real McClappy]

amazing vid on Allen and how he got here!

 

[transplantbillsfan]

On 1/23/2020 at 5:27 AM, jrober38 said:

 

I just watched all 5 highlights.

 

John Brown, Steelers - LOS = 30 yard line, ball caught Steelers' 35. Ball went 35 yards in the air.

John Brown, Dolphins - LOS = Dol 40 yard line, ball caught 17 yard line. Ball went 23 yards in the air.

John Brown, Patriots - LOS = Bills 47 yard line, ball caught Pats 20 yard line. Ball went 33 yards in the air.

Dawson Knox, Bengals - LOS = Bills 29 yard line, ball caught Bills' 49 yard line. Ball went 20 yards in the air.

Cole Beasley, Giants - LOS = Bills 35 yard line, ball caught Giants' 39 yard line. Ball went 26 yards in the air.

 

The videos are easy to find.

 

The longest pass Allen completed all year went 35 yards in the air.

 

Haven't looked through the rest of these pages, but I hope you've at least acknowledged that what you call "air yards" are not actually air yards... instead, they are yards from the LOS to the place the WR catches it.

 

Air yards are just what they sound like... yards the ball travels in the air.

 

So just as an example, when you see that pass to John Brown in the 2nd Patriots game, you can acknowledge that the pass actually travels from the 37 to the opposing 20, which is 43 air yards.

 

And while he's being hit.

 

And it's right on the money.

 

And that that's damn impressive.

[transplantbillsfan]

20 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

Yes, Brady Goff and Wentz who were all universally lauded this year for their stellar play.

 

And what's your point?

 

Were they universally condemned?

 

One of those guys is the GOAT. The other played in the Super Bowl last year. Another was the likely league MVP the year before if not for injury.

 

Now... by contrast what's the narrative on Josh Allen, just a 2nd year QB who was probably one of the most raw prospects to come into the NFL out of college in the last few decades.

[transplantbillsfan]

12 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

He might keep getting better, but there are plenty of examples of guys who didn't.

 

In no way is it a sure thing.

 

Just ask Josh Freeman, Blake Bortles, JP Losman, Mark Sanchez, Marcus Mariota, Christian Ponder, Jason Campbell, or Mitch Trubisky.

 

They all essentially peaked their second full year as a starter and never went on to become franchise QBs. 

 

It's really freaking hard to find a franchise QB. I wouldn't just assume Allen is going to go from being a below average to bad passer to being in the top 10-15 category which would establish him as a franchise guy worth $30 mil a season.

 

Assume?

 

One can never assume anything.

 

But Allen is the rawest prospect of any of those other QBs you posted, has more physical prowess than literally every other QB you listed, and seems to have more the heart/dedication AND ability to continue improving his game than several of the guys you posted... 

 

JP Losman

[BigBillsFan]

Accuracy for a QB cannot simply be measured as target X and throw to X. That's true if the object is static.

 

This week's probowl QB competition, as well as years past, shows you QBs aren't that accurate with few exceptions. Watson was horrible, Jackson was horrible. Both have 66 & 69% completion rates.

 

Completions and accuracy are mostly a dynamic component: WR is running and I throw it here it's enough to what's given by the coverage vs I need to throw it precisely in his arms when he's standing still

 

Most completions are to moving people and now it's a question of dynamic prediction of where to throw it. If you throw it harder and flatter your margin of success goes down than with touch which allows adjustments by the QB. Montana, Young, and Rodgers are masters of these passes arching passes. If you like the NBA compare the 3 of Bill Lambeer vs Steph Curry.

 

It also translates to the stiffness in the arm motion. Marino had a stiffer delivery than Montana because Marino had a bigger arm and threw flatter. Bledsoe and Farve had comparable arm strength (I wanted their long ball competition) but Bledsoe is relaxed and Farve thew the crap out of it.

 

Allen has a combination of Zeus's arm strength with a Bledsoe like motion: compact and efficient.

 

The problem is the type of receivers we have are quick and fast and not the perfect type for players who aren't accurate in tight windows for dynamic elasticity to make a completion. WRs who can use their body to shield areas, have high catch areas, etc..

 

On the other hand our WRs are quick enough to gain separation in smaller areas to let Allen throw it softer in a zone to allow adjustments. Our TEs are not competent IMO to help bail out the QB.

 

I think we need both for Allen: both the tight window big body WRs who use their body and are large targets which allow him to throw his flatter ball, and hopefully give him targets like Jackson to throw those softer passes to allow adjustments where accuracy isn't the main concern, it's throwing it in a window to allow adjustments.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

31 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

Sorry but that's pretty far fetched. Playoffs appearances are meaningless to that list. Mark Sanchez didn't lead the Jets, the Jets led him to the AFC championship game.

 

Mark Sanchez wasn't on my mind as one of the four.

 

31 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

The only 2 QBs on that list that "won" with their talent was Flacco and Manning who are the definition of hot and cold QBs.

 

You just pointed out that Luck was good.  The other QB I had in mind was Vick.  Whatever you think of him, he won with his talent and served as the template paving the way for guys like Jackson and Kyler Murray.  Both before and after jail Vick saw probowls, took his team to playoffs - and his talent (including the passing he did) were an important part of getting them there.  I think if you asked most people who know something about football and QBs, they would admit that a guy who did that with 2 teams had QB talent.

 

Flacco's team went to playoffs 6 of his first 7 years in the league and it wasn't in spite of him - the Ravens had a better defense than offense, but with Flacco they managed a top-10-ish offense.  I'd be happy for the Bills to manage a top-10-ish offense for 6 of the next 7 years, make it to 2 Division rounds, 2 conference championships, and win a Superbowl.  I guess you'd shake your head and explain that it was no good to you, because the QB was "meh".

 

31 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

What we're saying then is 2 out of 20 QBs had a decent career. Which means 9 out of 10 didn't. That puts the % of success at 10%. There is statistical relevancy.

 

4 out of 20 - even you mention Luck, then inexplicably omit him.  20%

 

Overall, in the first round, the success rate of drafted QB is ~20%, and that's using a definition of success that some find overly generous.  So I'm not quite sure of this list's significance or predictive power.

 

This is the sort of stuff that drives me a little nutz here.  People impose their own personal definition on something (like whether or not a guy is a talented QB), then making some pronouncement on the basis of that like it's some kind of ironclad canon.    People generate a list and get all woo woo look at this?  and it's basically not that different from saying "the guy was drafted in the first round and didn't look great right out of the gate".

 

He'll develop, or he won't.

 

 

 

 

[BigBillsFan]

27 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Assume?

 

One can never assume anything.

 

But Allen is the rawest prospect of any of those other QBs you posted, has more physical prowess than literally every other QB you listed, and seems to have more the heart/dedication AND ability to continue improving his game than several of the guys you posted... 

 

JP Losman

 

 

What? Losman bought a house in Buffalo, cleaned the streets, and loved the city and had an amazing desire to be better.

 

His heart/dedication/blah blah could not be understated.

 

This is the Losman debates rehashed: he's a 1st rounder, he has heart, dedication, skill, and a nose ring. Back then everyone screamed how much he's trying/learning/progressing It's irrelevant, all that matters is that you can do it. Study 24/7, practice, but doing trumps learning.

 

What gets me is he's a raw QB. He should not have been drafted in the 1st round. A raw QB learns on the bench and learns over 2 years. If he was drafted in round 3 or later people would be more objective. Mike Glennon was a project with far less athletic ability, but a better arm. Look at his rookie year, it looks like Josh's this year minus the running.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

What? Losman bought a house in Buffalo, cleaned the streets, and loved the city and had an amazing desire to be better.

 

His heart/dedication/blah blah could not be understated.

 

This is the Losman debates rehashed: he's a 1st rounder, he has heart, dedication, skill, and a nose ring. Back then everyone screamed how much he's trying/learning/progressing It's irrelevant, all that matters is that you can do it. Study 24/7, practice, but doing trumps learning.

 

What gets me is he's a raw QB. He should not have been drafted in the 1st round. A raw QB learns on the bench and learns over 2 years. If he was drafted in round 3 or later people would be more objective. Mike Glennon was a project with far less athletic ability, but a better arm. Look at his rookie year, it looks like Josh's this year minus the running.

 

Glennon's rookie year looks like Josh's this year you say.  By what criteria?  A better arm?  Srsly?

I don't want to be premature, but this sounds an awful lot like someone who's focused entirely on the stat sheet and isn't watching the play.

 

You're quite correct on project QB not being drafted in the 1st round, but there was no way Allen was going to last into the 2nd or probably even into the 2nd half of the first.  NFL GMs and coaches were too wrought up about what they saw at the Sr Bowl, at the Combine, at his pro day etc. combined with his whiteboard smarts and charisma.  QB inflation is a Thing.

[BigBillsFan]

33 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Glennon's rookie year looks like Josh's this year you say.  By what criteria?  A better arm?  Srsly?

I don't want to be premature, but this sounds an awful lot like someone who's focused entirely on the stat sheet and isn't watching the play.

 

You're quite correct on project QB not being drafted in the 1st round, but there was no way Allen was going to last into the 2nd or probably even into the 2nd half of the first.  NFL GMs and coaches were too wrought up about what they saw at the Sr Bowl, at the Combine, at his pro day etc. combined with his whiteboard smarts and charisma.  QB inflation is a Thing.

 

I happen to watch a lot of football. It's the last sport I watch a lot of as I get older. Glennon had a better arm than Allen in terms of mechanics, accuracy and pedigree in college. He lacks Allen's Zeus gun, but Glennon is no slouch in arm strength and had a far better history in college with yards, TD, and experience. He threw for 200/yards a game with 19 TDs in 13 games as a rookie.

 

In other words if you had 3 good WRs and you wanted to see who could hit them in stride as a rookie Glennon would win every day. The same could be said for Landry Jones.

 

I agree with you QB inflation is real, but getting caught up into it is false. As QB inflation for the top prospects become more of a set standard, so do the amount that fall that aren't as prized: Prescott, Watson as examples.

 

There might have been no way that Allen stayed on the board past the 1st but we've seen this before and it's hard to have a raw QB typically pan out. I can't think of the last raw QB that entered the NFL with the expectations of a 1st rounder and turned out ok. Maybe I'm wrong, I'm open to the contrary.

 

 

[BigBillsFan]

Here's a list of other raw QBs drafted with more experience in college and all of them failed:
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert

Christian Ponder

Kyle Boller

 

All of them were fast and raw. All of them would have done better if the team didn't have to rely on them. If all of them had a great defense, and a great running game they would have stayed around much longer. Having a defense like ours and the coaching we have on defense means we can develop Allen into an athletic game manager. Basically what I'm hoping for Allen's peak is the athletic version of a Brady in year 2002: nothing fancy but doesn't lose the game on hero ball and good is good enough. Even with stat creep I think we could win even with those stats. I don't expect that by year 3 either, maybe year 4 or 5.

 

It doesn't take much to have a winner of a QB if you let them develop. Where most of them get exposed is their inability to adapt to blitzing and move the ball when the game is on the line. Allen is better than all of the above in his ability to run with the ball and he has Herculean abilities to extend plays with his feet. It will all come down to whether or not he can throw the ball when blitzed. The top QBs weren't all physically gifted, but all of them learned how to win more than lose against the blitz. That's what we need to see.

[transplantbillsfan]

On 1/23/2020 at 11:19 AM, Billl said:

OK boomer, here you go.

https://lmgtfy.com/?q=qbr+formula

 

This post tells me a lot about you.

On 1/23/2020 at 1:38 PM, BringBackOrton said:

Incredibly, no one ever does a deep dive into Allen’s positive stats to demonstrate that they may be flawed. Funny how that happens.

 

You should try it.

[transplantbillsfan]

19 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

I think the more pertinent point is that claiming that Allen is “dead last” in terms of accuracy isn’t true. In fact he’s not even bottom 10. 
 

I’m not saying that we should be happy with 21st, but there’s a relative chasm between the claim and reality.

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

Where did Allen “not get much help?”

 

Let’s do a deep dive on his receiver’s stats. His top two targets ranked 47th and 78th in drop rates this season. John Brown’s yards per target was higher than Kelce, Sanders, Julio, Kupp, Landry, Woods, Cooks, Allen, Tate, Adams, Hopkins, Odell.

 

Oh no! Some one is bringing up stats that don’t make Allen look like he’s throwing to Wyoming level receivers!

 

Maybe it's actually Allen who elevated Brown and Beasley more than the other way around.

 

Maybe those guys were upgrades, but along with believing "Allen's not there yet," the more relevant discussion relative to a young raw QB who's still improving is that the team isn't there yet.

 

And what's that old cliche...? A Tight End is a young QB's best friend?

 

Who was Allen's #1 Tight End and where did he rank in terms of drop rates?

[JoPoy88]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Maybe it's actually Allen who elevated Brown and Beasley more than the other way around.

 

Maybe those guys were upgrades, but along with believing "Allen's not there yet," the more relevant discussion relative to a young raw QB who's still improving is that the team isn't there yet.

 

And what's that old cliche...? A Tight End is a young QB's best friend?

 

Who was Allen's #1 Tight End and where did he rank in terms of drop rates?

so all Allen needs to show his true potential is two elite wideouts and an elite tight end. Seriously that’s where your argument is veering towards because you’re so obstinate against anyone is this ridiculously long thread offering valid Allen criticism.

 

fanboyism at its finest. 

[Foxx]

1 hour ago, JoPoy88 said:

so all Allen needs to show his true potential is two elite wideouts and an elite tight end. Seriously that’s where your argument is veering towards because you’re so obstinate against anyone is this ridiculously long thread offering valid Allen criticism.

 

fanboyism at its finest. 

you have to know trans, thats just who he is. i don't know if he is right or wrong this time but, lets hope he is right.

[BringBackOrton]

6 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

And what's your point?

 

Were they universally condemned?

 

One of those guys is the GOAT. The other played in the Super Bowl last year. Another was the likely league MVP the year before if not for injury.

 

Now... by contrast what's the narrative on Josh Allen, just a 2nd year QB who was probably one of the most raw prospects to come into the NFL out of college in the last few decades.

Peyton Manning is an All Time Great, let’s compare his last season with Josh’s! Then we can say he’s better than Peyton AND Brady!

[thebandit27]

6 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:

so all Allen needs to show his true potential is two elite wideouts and an elite tight end. Seriously that’s where your argument is veering towards because you’re so obstinate against anyone is this ridiculously long thread offering valid Allen criticism.

 

fanboyism at its finest. 

The interesting thing about your statement is that it’s actually exactly how the Rams and Chiefs approached things with their young QBs.

 

Now obviously the QB is going to have to be good regardless, but the fact that Mahomes has had an elite WR, RB, TE, and another very good WR is definitely a component of why he’s been so dominant. It’s even more evident with regard to Goff; McVay got that job and immediately brought in Cooks, Woods, Watkins, Kupp, Everett, Reynolds, & Higbee.

 

I would love to see Buffalo make a similar effort with Allen. Make his targets so good that he has literally no excuse for not getting the job done.

Edited January 25, 2020 by thebandit27

[CincyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:

so all Allen needs to show his true potential is two elite wideouts and an elite tight end. Seriously that’s where your argument is veering towards because you’re so obstinate against anyone is this ridiculously long thread offering valid Allen criticism.

 

fanboyism at its finest. 

 

I would settle for ONE elite WR, a solid TE and a second solid RB.  At present we have one good WR, a 2nd competent WR, a below average TE group & one good RB.

 

Now don't get me wrong I think Knox will develop into a solid TE.  But during the last season he was below average and had to many drops and ran some poor routes.  As for Kroft & Smith.................

 

Just look at the Super Bowl.  The Chiefs field an elite WR, an elite TE, very good 2nd & 3rd WR's and a solid RB.  The 49's feature an elite TE, an elite RB and a very good WR.

 

It's not being a fan boy to hope the Bills can have at least ONE elite skills player on the offense.  Or put another way I am 100% convinced that if the Bills had an elite TE Allen would have been well above 60% in completion % this season.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 25, 2020 by CincyBillsFan

[Zerovoltz]

On 1/22/2020 at 9:39 AM, pop gun said:

Who was Manning throwing to? Huge difference between Allens weapons and Mannings.

Manning also had some guy named Bruce Ariens as QB coach.

 

Marvin Harrison 115 rec on 184 targets

Edgerrin James 62 rec on 82 targets, oh and he rushed for 1553 yards

2 decent veteren TE Dilger/Pollard 74 rec on 92 targets 

 

Manning also had 72 more pass attempts than Allen. You can add about 500 more pass yards to Allens total if you extrapolate everything out. 

 

If you do add all the numbers up for Manning and add the 500 more passing yards to Allen their total numbers look quite similar despite the HUGE difference surrounding them in talent.

 

Manning      4135 pass yards 73 rush yards 28 total TDs 15 int GWD 7 

Allen             3600 pass yards 510 rush yards 29 total TDs 9 int GWD 5

 

Keep poopooing Allen and he will keep you haters looking like the fools you are!

 

The major flaw in this comparison is that Manning gets 500 more pass yards becasue the Colts were much more efficient on offense.  They converted that 3rd and 8 a couple times a game that kept a drive alive and led to more attempts and points.  This board has been breaking down "Completion PCT" since Allen was drafted.  He isn't efficient enough.  The Bills offense isn't efficient enough.  You get bigger and better stats when you move the chains consistantly due to more oppertunity.  As I pointed out earlier in this thread, the Bills had the 8th highest number of possesions in the NFL this year.  They scored 1.66 points per possesion.  That is a poor number.  The Bills made plenty of big plays.  Allen had a good number of long passes and big runs.  He was however inefficient.  NFL football games are typically settled by margins less than 7 points most weeks.  The difference in winning more often than not, is being efficient.  Converting a few more third downs.  Executing in the red zone ONE more time than usual, keeps drives going...means a FG instead of punt and means TD instead of FG more often.  You can break down the numbers for Allen a million different ways, and compare him to every QB that played in the last 20 years and you can find numbers to make him look like he's on a path to the HOF, and you can find numbers that tell you JP Losman was better.  .....and it doesn't matter.  Doing the small things in a game, more often, is what needs to happen.  Allen needs to be better...he's the biggest part of the Bills being more efficient.....better players, play calls and all that are part of it too, but it's mostly Allen. 

 

On 1/22/2020 at 1:46 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

John Brown's best season in the NFL is with Josh Allen as QB. 

 

His 2nd best season was playing with MVP candidate Carson Palmer in 2015 who was also throwing to Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, David Fells and Jermaine Gresham with David Johnson out of the backfield.

 

Cole Beasley's 2nd best season in the NFL is with Josh Allen as QB.

 

His best season was with surprise rookie Dak Prescott, who had his most efficient statistical season while also throwing to Dak Prescott and Jason Witten while handing the ball off to Zeke Elliot.

 

 

If it's the QB and not the WRs, what is it saying that those 2 guys--who were never really considered #1 WRs and were never really expected to perform as such--had career years with Josh Allen at QB?

 

It's the QB, obviously.

 

It's also the Wide Receivers and other offensive weapons, obviously.

 

We need to upgrade our offensive weapons.  Allen needs to work on his game.

 

Both are true.

 

This is an overly simple way to look at it.  Brown had a very good season.....he was used to his AND his QB's strength....long routes, big arm QB....good combination.  Beasely had a statitstically good season, but he had more targets than he's ever had so even with a rather low catch %, his stats look good.  You say "it's the QB obviously"  .....that's a double edged sword isn't it?  Brown benefitted from Allen as QB....especially compared to noodle arm Flacco.  Allen maximizes what Brown does best.  Beasly's stats are target driven...his catch PCT was way low....he runs mostly short routes...Allen isn't "ACCURATE".....alot of his throws are not right on the numbers short...meaning Beasley had alot of tough balls to catch, thrown his way and thus they didn't make the connections at a very high rate...especially for a guy who is your short route/slant guy.  .....(PS, Beasley is a very good slot WR...his catch PCT is very good through his career....higher than Edelmans even.  IF he were in NE, he'd be a media darling)  You can argue both of these guys are very good pieces for Allen to have around......your weapons, especially Beasley, probalby made Allen look better than he might have otherwise.  You need better TE and probably a big post up type WR that presents allen a big tall target....again, the help maximize what Allen does best. 

 

 

On 1/22/2020 at 6:54 PM, oldmanfan said:

If we assume that 60% is the magic, holy grail of completion percentage that Allen must hit, here’s some math:

 

Number of attempts:  461

Number of completions:  271

Number if additional completions needed for 60%:  4 (rounds off to 60%)

 

So this entire obsession with his completion percentage comes down to 4 plays over the season.  So 4 better passes, 4 less drops, 4 less throwaways.  However, this angst comes down to 4 plays, or 0.25 plays a game.

 

Just food for thought.

 

See my first comment in this post.  Your offense has to be more efficient.  Trying to pin this on .25 plays a game is being way too selective and ignoring the problem.  Offense, including, the QB, must become more efficient....I'm probalby giving what would be considered and overly simple response here....but Allen/the team need about 6-10 plays a game that extend drives...resulting in fewer punts that turn into a FG or 2.....and some drives that instead of FG, turn into a TD or 2. 

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

The major flaw in this comparison is that Manning gets 500 more pass yards becasue the Colts were much more efficient on offense.  They converted that 3rd and 8 a couple times a game that kept a drive alive and led to more attempts and points.  This board has been breaking down "Completion PCT" since Allen was drafted.  He isn't efficient enough.  The Bills offense isn't efficient enough.  You get bigger and better stats when you move the chains consistantly due to more oppertunity.  As I pointed out earlier in this thread, the Bills had the 8th highest number of possesions in the NFL this year.  They scored 1.66 points per possesion.  That is a poor number.  The Bills made plenty of big plays.  Allen had a good number of long passes and big runs.  He was however inefficient.  NFL football games are typically settled by margins less than 7 points most weeks.  The difference in winning more often than not, is being efficient.  Converting a few more third downs.  Executing in the red zone ONE more time than usual, keeps drives going...means a FG instead of punt and means TD instead of FG more often.  You can break down the numbers for Allen a million different ways, and compare him to every QB that played in the last 20 years and you can find numbers to make him look like he's on a path to the HOF, and you can find numbers that tell you JP Losman was better.  .....and it doesn't matter.  Doing the small things in a game, more often, is what needs to happen.  Allen needs to be better...he's the biggest part of the Bills being more efficient.....better players, play calls and all that are part of it too, but it's mostly Allen. 

 

 

This is an overly simple way to look at it.  Brown had a very good season.....he was used to his AND his QB's strength....long routes, big arm QB....good combination.  Beasely had a statitstically good season, but he had more targets than he's ever had so even with a rather low catch %, his stats look good.  You say "it's the QB obviously"  .....that's a double edged sword isn't it?  Brown benefitted from Allen as QB....especially compared to noodle arm Flacco.  Allen maximizes what Brown does best.  Beasly's stats are target driven...his catch PCT was way low....he runs mostly short routes...Allen isn't "ACCURATE".....alot of his throws are not right on the numbers short...meaning Beasley had alot of tough balls to catch, thrown his way and thus they didn't make the connections at a very high rate...especially for a guy who is your short route/slant guy.  .....(PS, Beasley is a very good slot WR...his catch PCT is very good through his career....higher than Edelmans even.  IF he were in NE, he'd be a media darling)  You can argue both of these guys are very good pieces for Allen to have around......your weapons, especially Beasley, probalby made Allen look better than he might have otherwise.  You need better TE and probably a big post up type WR that presents allen a big tall target....again, the help maximize what Allen does best. 

 

 

 

See my first comment in this post.  Your offense has to be more efficient.  Trying to pin this on .25 plays a game is being way too selective and ignoring the problem.  Offense, including, the QB, must become more efficient....I'm probalby giving what would be considered and overly simple response here....but Allen/the team need about 6-10 plays a game that extend drives...resulting in fewer punts that turn into a FG or 2.....and some drives that instead of FG, turn into a TD or 2. 

I really don’t care what a Chiefs fan has to say, but my comment was directed towards those who obsess over the 60% completion number.  It is statistically meaningless vs. 58.8%.

 

And the entire offense needs to continue improving.  Everyone gets that.

[YattaOkasan]

1 hour ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

..but Allen/the team need about 6-10 plays a game that extend drives...resulting in fewer punts that turn into a FG or 2.....and some drives that instead of FG, turn into a TD or 2. 

I’m on board with most of what you’re saying but 6-10 is a huge amount. That would probably be >100 more yards per game on the season. I think it’s actually more like 1-2 more plays a game. 1 more FG per game is ~0.25 more points per drive by my calculations. That probably puts us in the average average range

[DuckyBoys]

He needs to continue to get better vs the blitz and learning to take the easier third down completion to extend drives vs always taking the big play.  There needs to be better options around him.  The completion % obsession is nuts.  Carolina turned Cam Newton into a near 70% passer   Cam didnt get any better with accuracy and ball placement  They simply changed the focus of the passing game to throwing to backs and te.  Do the Bills really want to coach their qb into being Capt Checkdown?  Its a fine line .  I'd prefer they get better talent to allow him to throw vertically even more .  None of these players ever carried their team offensively

Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert

Christian Ponder

Kyle Boller

 

 

Allen is the whole offense right now

[Billl]

10 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

And what's your point?

 

Were they universally condemned?

 

One of those guys is the GOAT. The other played in the Super Bowl last year. Another was the likely league MVP the year before if not for injury.

 

Now... by contrast what's the narrative on Josh Allen, just a 2nd year QB who was probably one of the most raw prospects to come into the NFL out of college in the last few decades.

What is with the “Josh was the most raw QB in decades” narrative?  Unless “raw” just means that he was ineffective in college, it’s BS.  You know who was raw?  Lamar Jackson was raw.  He just completed an MVP season, and people are still calling him a RB.  Ryan Tannehill was raw.  He was a WR until his Junior year of college.  Pat Mahomes was raw coming out of the Air Raid at Texas Tech. Allen was simply a QB who didn’t put up numbers despite playing in the same system as Carson Wentz.

[Coach Tuesday]

<ignores 100+ page TSW thread for weeks>
 

<decides to check in on it, sees someone comparing Josh Allen to Mike Glennon>
 

<closes web browser>

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

I happen to watch a lot of football. It's the last sport I watch a lot of as I get older. Glennon had a better arm than Allen in terms of mechanics, accuracy and pedigree in college.

 

Ok, Whoa.  Mechanics and accuracy I get.  I in fact agree with this, since Allen is widely acknowledged to need work on his mechanics and that affects his accuracy at times.

 

But "pedigree in college"?  Since when is that an appropriate metric for QB arm quality?  There's too much impact from the quality of the other players, the quality of the competition, etc.

 

8 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

I agree with you QB inflation is real, but getting caught up into it is false. As QB inflation for the top prospects become more of a set standard, so do the amount that fall that aren't as prized: Prescott, Watson as examples.

 

There might have been no way that Allen stayed on the board past the 1st but we've seen this before and it's hard to have a raw QB typically pan out. I can't think of the last raw QB that entered the NFL with the expectations of a 1st rounder and turned out ok. Maybe I'm wrong, I'm open to the contrary.

 

Let's get the elephant in the room out of the way first:  Allen was a very raw prospect and he may not pan out.  We both agree there.

 

I don't want to get drawn into the QB comparison game.   It's a wrong road IMO; for every genuine top-notch NFL starter I could point out as a possible comparator, there are in fact 4 who had similar metrics by some criterion and who flamed out, for various reasons.

 

The thing is, that's even true of guys who "check all the boxes" in college - have great "pedigrees", great mechanics and accuracy.  Overall, even in the first round, something like 4 out of 5 QB drafted do not succeed, and that's using a pretty low-bar definition of success.  Rosen is kind of a case in point.  He was supposed to be the most "NFL ready" of the bunch with superior accuracy and the ability to make all the throws, smart guy, etc etc.  And he may yet succeed but the Magic 8 Ball isn't high on his odds right now.

 

The promising thing to me about Allen is that the Bills did what they had to do to trade up and draft him.  They decided who they wanted and they pulled the trigger.  The problem with the Bills approach to QB, historically, has been that they too seldom pulled the trigger and never made the sort of "neutral thinking, here we are, what do we need to do?" pre-draft moves that Beane put together.  Instead we had whining from Nix about how "if you need to take a QB, you need to draft him earlier than his value" (presumably after he tried to wait until that QB hit the value he had on him and got burned) and from Whaley about how the Bills were "stuck in QB purgatory" (drafting too low to get a good one, but too bad at the position to contend)

 

I can't tell if Allen will be our guy, but I can tell you that if the Bills stay with the same approach of "evaluate, decide who you want, and do what you need to to get him", the odds are much better that the Bills will get that guy than they were previously.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:

so all Allen needs to show his true potential is two elite wideouts and an elite tight end.

 

Well, that does seem to be the Houston/KC/SF approach and since two of those teams are in the Superbowl while our GM acknowledges he "didn't do enough" and "even with the cap limitations, I could have done more and it hurt Allen" with regard to our 2018 offense.....I'm not saying that'd turn Allen into Mahomes or Watson, but I'd kind of like to see us do the experiment.

 

Does that make me the finest fanboy here?

 

[Billl]

Here’s an evaluation of him I came across this morning.  I think it’s pretty accurate.  I’m curious if even his biggest apologists would disagree.

 

Drops and lack of playmaking talent don’t account fully for his 56-percent completions in two seasons of starting. Way too scattershot a passer right now. Touch throws are very inconsistent. Velocity is great, but he needs to develop a better changeup to drop passes into the bucket. Will miss — sometimes badly — on higher-percentage checkdowns and screens. Forgets to reset his feet when he has time to do so.

Has a long way to go vs. pressure — gets skittish at times and doesn’t operate all that well with a dirty pocket. Overreacts to the first sign of pressure and bails out. Lacks proper sense of timing and needs to speed up his drops. Won’t always take the easy yards defenses will give him. Doesn’t consistently climb the pocket when the edges are collapsing. Comes off his first read too fast when plays don’t develop instantaneously.

[thebandit27]

7 minutes ago, Billl said:

Here’s an evaluation of him I came across this morning.  I think it’s pretty accurate.  I’m curious if even his biggest apologists would disagree.

 

Drops and lack of playmaking talent don’t account fully for his 56-percent completions in two seasons of starting. Way too scattershot a passer right now. Touch throws are very inconsistent. Velocity is great, but he needs to develop a better changeup to drop passes into the bucket. Will miss — sometimes badly — on higher-percentage checkdowns and screens. Forgets to reset his feet when he has time to do so.

Has a long way to go vs. pressure — gets skittish at times and doesn’t operate all that well with a dirty pocket. Overreacts to the first sign of pressure and bails out. Lacks proper sense of timing and needs to speed up his drops. Won’t always take the easy yards defenses will give him. Doesn’t consistently climb the pocket when the edges are collapsing. Comes off his first read too fast when plays don’t develop instantaneously.

Oh you “came across” that huh? While looking for what just out of curiosity? ? 

 

I can’t claim to be an apologist, but there’s definitely parts of that I disagree with; namely the idea that he can’t throw touch passes and needs to speed up his drops. He’s also improved areas such as coming off his first read too early and failing to set his feet.

 

I suppose I’m more curious as to what the point of posting a pre-draft evaluation is? I mean, the implication appears to be that he’s no better now than he was then, but that would be a ridiculous assertion to even to biggest of anti-Allen folks.

[Billl]

6 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Oh you “came across” that huh? While looking for what just out of curiosity? ? 

 

I can’t claim to be an apologist, but there’s definitely parts of that I disagree with; namely the idea that he can’t throw touch passes and needs to speed up his drops. He’s also improved areas such as coming off his first read too early and failing to set his feet.

 

I suppose I’m more curious as to what the point of posting a pre-draft evaluation is? I mean, the implication appears to be that he’s no better now than he was then, but that would be a ridiculous assertion to even to biggest of anti-Allen folks.

I was looking for his pre draft scouting reports due to all the “he’s so raw” comments around here.  I thought the analysis was interesting because every word of it is true today.  He’s literally been the starter for two years and has a career completion percentage of 56%.

 

Two year starter:  True

56% completion:  True

Scattershot passer:  True

Great velocity but needs a better change up:  True

Tends to miss (sometimes badly) on check downs and screens:  True

Struggles with pressure, lacks proper timing, won’t take the easy yards:  True, true, true

[HappyDays]

32 minutes ago, Billl said:

Here’s an evaluation of him I came across this morning.  I think it’s pretty accurate.  I’m curious if even his biggest apologists would disagree.

 

Here's another pre-draft evaluation I found:

 

"Can be inconsistent in his approach. Needs to play inside the offense and show more discipline. Too eager to go big game hunting. Ravenous appetite for the explosive play can also bring unwanted trouble. Willingness to default to playground style appears to limit his ability to get into a consistent rhythm. Needs to improve anticipatory reads and learn to take what the defense gives him. Decision making can go from good to bad in a moment's notice. Operates from a narrow base and allows his upper body and arm to race ahead of his feet. Has a dip and wind-up in his standard release. Explosive delivery and follow-through causes some throws to sail. Needs better touch on intermediate and deep balls. Carries ball a little low in the pocket. Impatient. Will leave pocket prematurely rather than standing in and winning in rhythm."

 

The trick is that this isn't about Josh Allen. Do you know who this is describing?

Edited January 25, 2020 by HappyDays

[oldmanfan]

33 minutes ago, Billl said:

Here’s an evaluation of him I came across this morning.  I think it’s pretty accurate.  I’m curious if even his biggest apologists would disagree.

 

Drops and lack of playmaking talent don’t account fully for his 56-percent completions in two seasons of starting. Way too scattershot a passer right now. Touch throws are very inconsistent. Velocity is great, but he needs to develop a better changeup to drop passes into the bucket. Will miss — sometimes badly — on higher-percentage checkdowns and screens. Forgets to reset his feet when he has time to do so.

Has a long way to go vs. pressure — gets skittish at times and doesn’t operate all that well with a dirty pocket. Overreacts to the first sign of pressure and bails out. Lacks proper sense of timing and needs to speed up his drops. Won’t always take the easy yards defenses will give him. Doesn’t consistently climb the pocket when the edges are collapsing. Comes off his first read too fast when plays don’t develop instantaneously.

First drop the apologies horsecrap.  Second, I think the above description fit his first year better but he improved in all these areas his second year.

[Billl]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Here's another pre-draft evaluation I found:

 

"Can be inconsistent in his approach. Needs to play inside the offense and show more discipline. Too eager to go big game hunting. Ravenous appetite for the explosive play can also bring unwanted trouble. Willingness to default to playground style appears to limit his ability to get into a consistent rhythm. Needs to improve anticipatory reads and learn to take what the defense gives him. Decision making can go from good to bad in a moment's notice. Operates from a narrow base and allows his upper body and arm to race ahead of his feet. Has a dip and wind-up in his standard release. Explosive delivery and follow-through causes some throws to sail. Needs better touch on intermediate and deep balls. Carries ball a little low in the pocket. Impatient. Will leave pocket prematurely rather than standing in and winning in rhythm."

 

The trick is that this isn't about Josh Allen. Do you know who this is describing?

My guess would be Mahomes.  If so, it’s safe to assume that he overcame them all pretty much immediately (other than his tendency to sail the deep ball on occasion).

[thebandit27]

4 minutes ago, Billl said:

I was looking for his pre draft scouting reports due to all the “he’s so raw” comments around here.  I thought the analysis was interesting because every word of it is true today.  He’s literally been the starter for two years and has a career completion percentage of 56%.

 

Two year starter:  True

56% completion:  True

Scattershot passer:  True

Great velocity but needs a better change up:  True

Tends to miss (sometimes badly) on check downs and screens:  True

Struggles with pressure, lacks proper timing, won’t take the easy yards:  True, true, true

Except for the parts that aren’t true like the ones that I pointed out. And he wasn’t a 56% passer last year.

 

And he doesn’t miss on checkdowns and screens. His problem is that he doesn’t take his check down often enough.

But once again, it’s clear that you’re really only interested in talking about what he does poorly, and completely ignore anything that resembles a sign of improvement.

 

I don’t know why, and frankly I’m more or less done trying to figure it out.