Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[thebandit27]

13 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

"For me this checks all the boxes for a hot party dip. It's relatively cheap and easy to make, but maybe more importantly, it's great hot, warm, or room temp. And it's also incredibly versatile."

 

now THAT... looks like damn good dip! cheap and easy. versatile.... all the reasons I married my wife really.

 

i'm gonna have to give it a go.

Slap it on some lightly toasted Hawaiian rolls; delicious and simple.

 

Oh, and shell out for some really good ground. I get mine from a farm nearby; the top quality beef really makes it.

[C.Biscuit97]

12 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

 

And when 3 rushers can generate that much pressure that quickly it's a disaster considering that the Texans had EIGHT men in coverage as a result of only rushing 3.

 

As an aside, I listen to Cowherd a lot and over the last month he frequently calls out Allen as an example of the next wave of super QB's.  This is a distinct change from when he was calling Allen a bust.  My guess is that Cowherd has watched some tape and talked to some QB experts who studied Allen and he's changed his mind about him as a result. 

 

From what I've seen Allen does more with less then almost any other QB in the NFL.  It's that simple.  I predict that when the Bills surround Allen with players that lift the Bills into the top half of NFL offenses, Allen will perform as a top 10 QB.  If we ever get the talent on offense to reach the top quarter, Allen will be a top 3 QB.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cowherd is awful. So punchable. 
 

his daughter though. 

Edited January 24, 2020 by C.Biscuit97

[jrober38]

11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I referred to Pro.football.reference not PFF

Free

Sorry about not providing a link, my mobile device isn’t being friendly about letting me paste in links

 

 

Gotcha.

 

I'll check it out next time.

[jrober38]

9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm

5 drops for Barkley 

31 drops for Allen

 

 

They did. 5 of them.

 

 

Not good enough long term.

 

But considering where he was last year, it's big progress. And there would be absolutely no reason to believe he couldn't make another big step with a full offseason the way he did year 1 to year 2.

 

 

 

 

He might keep getting better, but there are plenty of examples of guys who didn't.

 

In no way is it a sure thing.

 

Just ask Josh Freeman, Blake Bortles, JP Losman, Mark Sanchez, Marcus Mariota, Christian Ponder, Jason Campbell, or Mitch Trubisky.

 

They all essentially peaked their second full year as a starter and never went on to become franchise QBs. 

 

It's really freaking hard to find a franchise QB. I wouldn't just assume Allen is going to go from being a below average to bad passer to being in the top 10-15 category which would establish him as a franchise guy worth $30 mil a season.

Edited January 24, 2020 by jrober38

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

Which we know not to be true because that is basically the entire idea behind the Erhardt-Perkins. Run 100 different plays out of one formation based on what the defense is showing you. 

 

That does not mean, i do not get frustrated with BD's play calling. I do. I have spend many a Sunday pulling out my hair. 

 

I don't know what to think.  You say stuff that shows you really know your football.  And then there's stuff like this and the "50% on Allen" arbitrary bullgaffle.  TL;DR to beat Blitz0, 100 different plays out of one formation won't help you, and that's not really what EP is all about anyway.  Screens; Throw Hot into the Blitzer; Deep Post.  Daboll seems to love to try the deep throw, but not necessarily the post and not from max protect (which is too often ineffective for us); the Deep Post is a clear gap in Allen's game right now; we don't seem to Do screens; and teams have figured out they can disguise the blitzer and we don't have enough guys who can get open quickly on those hot routes to make it "no matter, someone will be".

 

The Erhard Perkins started out as an offense focused on the run and short passing game in the '70s using multiple formations and personnel to disguise the same series of simple plays - it's far more about "100 different formations running 10 plays" than "100 different plays out of one formation" at its root.  It evolved under Belicheck to be an offensive system.  Today a number of teams run it, and their offenses are all somewhat different - it's become more of a system of offensive terminology than a single offensive philosophy.  Chan Gailey's EP system looks different and relies on a somewhat different approach from Belichecks.   Today, pretty much all NFL offensive systems to my understanding have some variation of the same plays and concepts. 

 

All that said, when we're talking about a question like "how do you beat Cover 0 like the Patriots run?" running 100 different plays doesn't help you.  The fundamental problem is that in leaving no safety deep, there are extra guys to cover short "hot routes" and blitz and the challenge is to decode who is covering and who is blitzing.  It's not a finesse move at heart; it's about "I don't GAF which of 100 plays you're running from that formation, we're gonna KILL IT BEFORE IT GROWS".

Probably about the best explanation I've found of Cover0 as the Patriots run it is Brett Kollman's "Kids See Ghosts" (I know I'm gonna sound like a shill for the guy, but honest I'm not, I just find him that good).  He explains that at least as the Patriots run Cover0, the OFFENSE essentially drives who rushes and who doesn't, because they will 1) only rush enough guys to get one guy free 2) they won't leave a receiver uncovered 3) the minute a defender is blocked, he will stop rushing and drop back into coverage, clogging up the middle of the field and taking away the short routes there.  Meanwhile (something Baltimore did, and it seemed like Houston did though I haven't had the stomach to go back and watch it all yet), while blocked defenders may drop back into coverage, defenders who initially looked like they were dropping into coverage will leverage gaps that develop and become blitzers.  It's a total PITA to defend, blocking-wise.

 

It's not a secret how you beat it, but again, running 100 different plays that scheme WR open in different ways won't help because of the above.  You need specific plays that exploit the openings it inevitably leaves.  As Kollman notes (about 3:50 in if you watch), probably the most reliable way to get cheap yards against Blitz0 is to throw screens.  Do we have a good screen game?  MMMmmmmm not so much that I've seen, and I'm not sure why.  Fitz had wheels enough that Ds needed to keep an eye on him, yet Gailey was the ScreenMeister.  I wish Daboll would sit down with a bottle of his favorite brew and a clip-up of 2010-12 Bills screen plays, see if there isn't something there he can use.  (Invite Frazier to watch, because the smart money says he'll be seeing those same damn screens 2x/season next year.  Oh, make that 4x - Guess what vulnerability the Pats found in our D.)

 

Blitz0 beater #2: throw hot into the extra blitzer.  This is the quintessential Patriots solution, and when they had Gronk and Edelman Brady almost always had a short-area solution that was nearly guaranteed to make a clean catch in traffic and get 3-10 yds.  Here the Bills have two problems: 1) a sure-handed guy other than Singletary who can get open quickly and become a reliable hot read.  If the focus is on Singletary, they can just key off and nail him for too short yards 2) the way Ds seem to be running zero blitz against us,  figuring out where the extra blitzer is coming from.    OK, maybe they have 3 problems: Allen seems to have "Momma didn't raise no B" tattoo'ed on his hypothalamus, leading to a reluctance to take the checkdown.  Which leads us to....

 

Blitz0 beater #3: the Deep Post.  Max protect with 7, Hit it and Win.  This is the solution (or a variation thereof) that Daboll tried to implement vs. Baltimore.  So what's our problem there?  Well, first of all, when we keep in 7, we don't necessarily get clean max protect.  Our OL can't always hold its blocks; our TE and RB get beat like drums; late blitzers exploit gaps.  Second of all, especially under pressure, Allen has struggled with the deep throw and especially with the deep post.  It's easily seen on the NextGenStats, Allen has improved his passer rating significantly all over (the short red thing is throw aways) EXCEPT the deep center of the field.

 

So #3 is on Allen but also on the OL (max protect not good enough), #2 may be partly on Beane - I think Kroft was supposed to be That Guy but he didn't work out, and #1 seems to be on Daboll that the screen play isn't in our offensive vocabulary enough.  It's all overall IMO also on Daboll since he seemed in the Ravens game at least, to be counting on #3 to work and to have no Plan B or C behind it.

 

I can hear it now, "Allen homer" "Allen excuse maker" blah blah which is partly my point in bringing up the Kollman video which features Mahomes and Darnold - these aren't Bills specific problems, they're problems other young QBs have faced and were poorly prepared for in part because of scheme and play calling choices.

 

[C.Biscuit97]

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

He might keep getting better, but there are plenty of examples of guys who didn't.

 

In no way is it a sure thing.

 

Just ask Josh Freeman, Blake Bortles, JP Losman, Mark Sanchez, Marcus Mariota, Christian Ponder, Jason Campbell, or Mitch Trubisky.

 

They all essentially peaked their second full year as a starter and never went on to become franchise QBs. 

 

It's really freaking hard to find a franchise QB. I wouldn't just assume Allen is going to go from being a below average to bad passer to being in the top 10-15 category which would establish him as a franchise guy worth $30 mil a season.

Yup.  This is all a giant guessing game.  He was a game manager carried by a really good defense who is capable of making big plays.  So either he takes the next step like Brady, Big Ben, Or Wilson or he is Sanchez (Sanchez really sucked though), Bortles, or Mitchell.  It’s anyone’s guess at this point.  
 

the supporters (and we all should be hoping he reaches this point) seem to always shift the blame to other players while the haters (people who aren’t as sold) are slow to give credit for the improvements he did make this year.  
 

I think while he certainly improved, there are some big areas that concern me.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

It's really freaking hard to find a franchise QB. I wouldn't just assume Allen is going to go from being a below average to bad passer to being in the top 10-15 category which would establish him as a franchise guy worth $30 mil a season.

 

To the contrary, you seem to make (and to pound the drum repeatedly) in the opposite direction, that "as Allen is now so shall he always be", to the extent of conflating below average completion % with "below average passer" and so forth.

 

The truth is, he may develop either way, we just don't know yet.

[oldmanfan]

12 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

He might keep getting better, but there are plenty of examples of guys who didn't.

 

In no way is it a sure thing.

 

Just ask Josh Freeman, Blake Bortles, JP Losman, Mark Sanchez, Marcus Mariota, Christian Ponder, Jason Campbell, or Mitch Trubisky.

 

They all essentially peaked their second full year as a starter and never went on to become franchise QBs. 

 

It's really freaking hard to find a franchise QB. I wouldn't just assume Allen is going to go from being a below average to bad passer to being in the top 10-15 category which would establish him as a franchise guy worth $30 mil a season.

Who is saying it's a sure thing?  What people are saying is the kid is improving and we'll see how he continues to develop.  It is not the folks who are more on the pro side that are having any trouble with that, it is those like you that think you know exactly what he is and what he'll become that have the problem.

 

Of course by your standard we can only hope he'll be Jameis Winston.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

41 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

He might keep getting better, but there are plenty of examples of guys who didn't.

 

In no way is it a sure thing.

 

Just ask Josh Freeman, Blake Bortles, JP Losman, Mark Sanchez, Marcus Mariota, Christian Ponder, Jason Campbell, or Mitch Trubisky.

 

They all essentially peaked their second full year as a starter and never went on to become franchise QBs. 

 

It's really freaking hard to find a franchise QB. I wouldn't just assume Allen is going to go from being a below average to bad passer to being in the top 10-15 category which would establish him as a franchise guy worth $30 mil a season.

Yeah it's all about certainty isn't it. He might get better, he might not George. Thanks I never would have guessed it's difficult to find a franchise QB. Absurd

[thebandit27]

50 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

 

the supporters (and we all should be hoping he reaches this point) seem to always shift the blame to other players while the haters (people who aren’t as sold) are slow to give credit for the improvements he did make this year.  
 

 

I think this characterization is a bit off. I think there’s a major difference between pointing out that the guy didn’t get much help around him this year to add context vs shifting blame for areas that he needs to improve.

 

For example, there’s no question that Allen needs to improve his deep throws. You can certainly argue that his timing with his targets is off, and that a few were dropped or mishandled by WRs, but that in no way absolves him from needing to get better.

 

Same with regard to accuracy. It’s more than fair to be critical of those that claim he’s the most inaccurate QB in the game by pointing out that he’s 21st in on-target throw percentage. That is in no way/shape/form a claim that he doesn’t need to continue to improve his accuracy.

 

A good number of people seem to be unable to get away from extremes when it comes to this kid. My observation has been that the detractors are more aggressive in the application of Allen extremism, and I’m not too sure why.

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

I think this characterization is a bit off. I think there’s a major difference between pointing out that the guy didn’t get much help around him this year to add context vs shifting blame for areas that he needs to improve.

 

For example, there’s no question that Allen needs to improve his deep throws. You can certainly argue that his timing with his targets is off, and that a few were dropped or mishandled by WRs, but that in no way absolves him from needing to get better.

 

Same with regard to accuracy. It’s more than fair to be critical of those that claim he’s the most inaccurate QB in the game by pointing out that he’s 21st in on-target throw percentage. That is in no way/shape/form a claim that he doesn’t need to continue to improve his accuracy.

 

A good number of people seem to be unable to get away from extremes when it comes to this kid. My observation has been that the detractors are more aggressive in the application of Allen extremism, and I’m not too sure why.

I mean the same thing is happening in the Lamar Jackson pro bowl thread.  Fans are laughing at the MVP because of a pro bowl competition.  
 

and my main point of why I wasn’t a big fan of the Allen pick is because 1) a top 10 qb should dominate the MWC and I hate excuse why he didn’t 2) I didn’t trust the Bills to develop a qb.  I think Daboll is the definition of settling for average at best but the team has done some nice things for him.  They have invested in the oline and he has 2 nfl starting caliber wrs while he gets to play with a defense that rarely allows 20+ points

 

i just pray we add a receiver and can know for sure one way or the other is he is the answer.  I don’t want to be stuck in Tannehill land.

[thebandit27]

6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I mean the same thing is happening in the Lamar Jackson pro bowl thread.  Fans are laughing at the MVP because of a pro bowl competition.  
 

and my main point of why I wasn’t a big fan of the Allen pick is because 1) a top 10 qb should dominate the MWC and I hate excuse why he didn’t 2) I didn’t trust the Bills to develop a qb.  I think Daboll is the definition of settling for average at best but the team has done some nice things for him.  They have invested in the oline and he has 2 nfl starting caliber wrs while he gets to play with a defense that rarely allows 20+ points

 

i just pray we add a receiver and can know for sure one way or the other is he is the answer.  I don’t want to be stuck in Tannehill land.

I think that the team has done just above the minimum when it comes to supporting Allen. They’ve given him nothing beyond serviceable when it comes to OL and WR. Contrast it to the approach that teams like Philly, LAR, Chicago, and Cleveland have taken to surround their young QBs with not only quality, but also quantity of explosive playmakers, and we’re waaaaay behind.

 

And yes, the Lamar criticism is outrageous. I’ve said many times that I like all 5 of the 2018 QBs, and I still think they can all be good.

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

I think that the team has done just above the minimum when it comes to supporting Allen. They’ve given him nothing beyond serviceable when it comes to OL and WR. Contrast it to the approach that teams like Philly, LAR, Chicago, and Cleveland have taken to surround their young QBs with not only quality, but also quantity of explosive playmakers, and we’re waaaaay behind.

 

And yes, the Lamar criticism is outrageous. I’ve said many times that I like all 5 of the 2018 QBs, and I still think they can all be good.

Slightly off topic but how do you feel about this regime’s offensive personnel evaluations? I have some concerns.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

30 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I think this characterization is a bit off. I think there’s a major difference between pointing out that the guy didn’t get much help around him this year to add context vs shifting blame for areas that he needs to improve.

 

For example, there’s no question that Allen needs to improve his deep throws. You can certainly argue that his timing with his targets is off, and that a few were dropped or mishandled by WRs, but that in no way absolves him from needing to get better.

 

Same with regard to accuracy. It’s more than fair to be critical of those that claim he’s the most inaccurate QB in the game by pointing out that he’s 21st in on-target throw percentage. That is in no way/shape/form a claim that he doesn’t need to continue to improve his accuracy.

 

A good number of people seem to be unable to get away from extremes when it comes to this kid. My observation has been that the detractors are more aggressive in the application of Allen extremism, and I’m not too sure why.

 

Great post.  I have the same observation (and as a mod, I probably spend more time in the "weeds" of the board (the extremes) than most.

 

It frustrates me no end how one can not point out problems with the OL, the WR getting open, the playcalling etc without someone beating the "just Allen excusemaking" drum.

 

I think the extremes stem from two things: 1) the polarization pre-draft: Allen is essentially positioned as a litmus test for modern analytics scouting vs. old-fashioned eyeballs and shoesoles stuff which is where we had analytics guys looking at their numbers and saying extreme stuff like "joke of a first round pick" and "mathematics prove less than zero chance to succeed" or stuff like that vs. the eyeball scouts who watched his Senior Bowl stuff in 2018, for example, and said OMG! OMG! OMG! *swoon* 2) country is generally pretty damn polarized these days where everyone is termed a "lover" or a "hater".

 

Beane and co. use analytics, but they are also very much eyeballs and shoesoles scouts and willing to pull the trigger and take a shot at the high-ceiling/low floor guys.  Analytics is not as much an exact science in football as it thinks it is.

 

11 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Slightly off topic but how do you feel about this regime’s offensive personnel evaluations? I have some concerns.  

 

I share those concerns. 

 

I will say this: I was much more favorably impressed by this offseason's acquisitions on offense. 

Either there was some turn-over on college and pro personnel scouting on Beane's staff, or there was a shift in priorities and assignments.  I sort of had the impression that in 2018, they were "all-in" with scouting QB and defense, and gave the "bum's rush" to scouting OL or WR.

[Mango]

34 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't know what to think.  You say stuff that shows you really know your football.  And then there's stuff like this and the "50% on Allen" arbitrary bullgaffle.  TL;DR to beat Blitz0, 100 different plays out of one formation won't help you, and that's not really what EP is all about anyway.  Screens; Throw Hot into the Blitzer; Deep Post.  Daboll seems to love to try the deep throw, but not necessarily the post and not from max protect (which is too often ineffective for us); the Deep Post is a clear gap in Allen's game right now; we don't seem to Do screens; and teams have figured out they can disguise the blitzer and we don't have enough guys who can get open quickly on those hot routes to make it "no matter, someone will be".

 

The Erhard Perkins started out as an offense focused on the run and short passing game in the '70s using multiple formations and personnel to disguise the same series of simple plays - it's far more about "100 different formations running 10 plays" than "100 different plays out of one formation" at its root.  It evolved under Belicheck to be an offensive system.  Today a number of teams run it, and their offenses are all somewhat different - it's become more of a system of offensive terminology than a single offensive philosophy.  Chan Gailey's EP system looks different and relies on a somewhat different approach from Belichecks.   Today, pretty much all NFL offensive systems to my understanding have some variation of the same plays and concepts. 

 

All that said, when we're talking about a question like "how do you beat Cover 0 like the Patriots run?" running 100 different plays doesn't help you.  The fundamental problem is that in leaving no safety deep, there are extra guys to cover short "hot routes" and blitz and the challenge is to decode who is covering and who is blitzing.  It's not a finesse move at heart; it's about "I don't GAF which of 100 plays you're running from that formation, we're gonna KILL IT BEFORE IT GROWS".

Probably about the best explanation I've found of Cover0 as the Patriots run it is Brett Kollman's "Kids See Ghosts" (I know I'm gonna sound like a shill for the guy, but honest I'm not, I just find him that good).  He explains that at least as the Patriots run Cover0, the OFFENSE essentially drives who rushes and who doesn't, because they will 1) only rush enough guys to get one guy free 2) they won't leave a receiver uncovered 3) the minute a defender is blocked, he will stop rushing and drop back into coverage, clogging up the middle of the field and taking away the short routes there.  Meanwhile (something Baltimore did, and it seemed like Houston did though I haven't had the stomach to go back and watch it all yet), while blocked defenders may drop back into coverage, defenders who initially looked like they were dropping into coverage will leverage gaps that develop and become blitzers.  It's a total PITA to defend, blocking-wise.

 

It's not a secret how you beat it, but again, running 100 different plays that scheme WR open in different ways won't help because of the above.  You need specific plays that exploit the openings it inevitably leaves.  As Kollman notes (about 3:50 in if you watch), probably the most reliable way to get cheap yards against Blitz0 is to throw screens.  Do we have a good screen game?  MMMmmmmm not so much that I've seen, and I'm not sure why.  Fitz had wheels enough that Ds needed to keep an eye on him, yet Gailey was the ScreenMeister.  I wish Daboll would sit down with a bottle of his favorite brew and a clip-up of 2010-12 Bills screen plays, see if there isn't something there he can use.  (Invite Frazier to watch, because the smart money says he'll be seeing those same damn screens next year.  Guess what vulnerability the Pats found in our D.)

 

Blitz0 beater #2: throw hot into the extra blitzer.  This is the quintessential Patriots solution, and when they had Gronk and Edelman Brady almost always had a short-area solution that was nearly guaranteed to make a clean catch in traffic and get 3-10 yds.  Here the Bills have two problems: 1) a sure-handed guy other than Singletary who can get open quickly and become a reliable hot read.  If the focus is on Singletary, they can just key off and nail him for too short yards 2) the way Ds seem to be running zero blitz against us,  figuring out where the extra blitzer is coming from.    OK, maybe they have 3 problems: Allen seems to have "Momma didn't raise no B" tattoo'ed on his hypothalamus, leading to a reluctance to take the checkdown.  Which leads us to....

 

Blitz0 beater #3: the Deep Post.  Max protect with 7, Hit it and Win.  This is the solution (or a variation thereof) that Daboll tried to implement vs. Baltimore.  So what's our problem there?  Well, first of all, when we keep in 7, we don't necessarily get clean max protect.  Our OL can't always hold its blocks; our TE and RB get beat like drums; late blitzers exploit gaps.  Second of all, especially under pressure, Allen has struggled with the deep throw and especially with the deep post.  It's easily seen on the NextGenStats, Allen has improved his passer rating significantly all over (the short red thing is throw aways) EXCEPT the deep center of the field.

 

So #3 is on Allen but also on the OL (max protect not good enough), #2 may be partly on Beane - I think Kroft was supposed to be That Guy but he didn't work out, and #1 seems to be on Daboll that the screen play isn't in our offensive vocabulary enough.  It's all overall IMO also on Daboll since he seemed in the Ravens game at least, to be counting on #3 to work and to have no Plan B or C behind it.

 

I can hear it now, "Allen homer" "Allen excuse maker" blah blah which is partly my point in bringing up the Kollman video which features Mahomes and Darnold - these aren't Bills specific problems, they're problems other young QBs have faced and were poorly prepared for in part because of scheme and play calling choices.

 

 

Just to clarify- I wasn't talking about putting up 400 yards, throwing 6 TD's, and being productive, I was talking about how much blame should the QB harbor for not completing 50% of his passes in 3 football games. At least half the blame falls on the QB for not completing 50 percent of his passes for 3 ENTIRE NFL games. 50% is obviously an arbitrary number, but the conversation was trending towards identifying how much of the blame is on Allen. The answer- at least half. It isn't really a quantifiable question- but at least half is my answer to that question. And I stand by the idea that Allen takes a MAJORITY of the blame for failing to complete 50% of his passes on multiple ocassions. 

 

My response for EP is wrong and right. Yes it runs the same play from a number of formations, but that also means you can run a ton of plays from a single formation, because a huge portion of the playbook is on the table. At the end of the day EP is heavily reliant on the QB to accurately and quickly diagnose and label. 

 

 

[thebandit27]

6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Slightly off topic but how do you feel about this regime’s offensive personnel evaluations? I have some concerns.  

Split.

 

I think that they have some good ideas in that  the archetypes they’ve brought in have been good fits for what they want to do offensively. I also think that they’ve found great value in guys like Nsekhe and Mongo.

 

On the other hand, they’ve put a number of eggs in some questionable baskets like Gore, the WR3 spot, Kroft, and (even though it goes under the radar) Barkley.

 

I believe this offseason will tell us a lot about whether or not they’re bound and determined to give Allen the best chance to succeed. And if I can be so bold, it will determine their long-term fate in Buffalo.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

Just to clarify- I wasn't talking about putting up 400 yards, throwing 6 TD's, and being productive, I was talking about how much blame should the QB harbor for not completing 50% of his passes in 3 football games. At least half the blame falls on the QB for not completing 50 percent of his passes for 3 ENTIRE NFL games. 50% is obviously an arbitrary number, but the conversation was trending towards identifying how much of the blame is on Allen. The answer- at least half. It isn't really a quantifiable question- but at least half is my answer to that question. And I stand by the idea that Allen takes a MAJORITY of the blame for failing to complete 50% of his passes on multiple ocassions. 

 

My response for EP is wrong and right. Yes it runs the same play from a number of formations, but that also means you can run a ton of plays from a single formation, because a huge portion of the playbook is on the table. At the end of the day EP is heavily reliant on the QB to accurately and quickly diagnose and label.

 

I understood your point, I'm saying that I think assigning 50% of that to the QB is totally arbitrary and capricious.  It totally is a quantifiable question how much of the blame goes to the QB on each play, but to quantify that requires information none of us have, but the team does.

 

You can stand by your idea all you like, but it's 1) way too simplistic and 2) probably wrong.

 

The point about your characterization of EP offensive system is that it's fairly meaningless whether or not you can run a ton of plays from a single formation, or the same play from a number of formations, with regard to the ability to beat Blitz0.  What matters is can you effectively execute THE CORRECT PLAY CHOICES TO BEAT BLITZ ZERO?  Can you run screen plays successfully?  Do you have more than one guy who can get open quickly on hot reads and are the plays designed to get them open fast?  Do you have guys on the OL, TE and RB who can block and hold their blocks effectively while the deep route develops?  Can your QB hit that deep post?  (Allen is responsible for that last, and this past season the answer was "no" more often than not)

 

If you don't, you're like the Devil's Dictionary definition of Consultant: "Guy who knows 500 ways to Make Love, and doesn't have a Girlfriend"

[jrober38]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Yup.  This is all a giant guessing game.  He was a game manager carried by a really good defense who is capable of making big plays.  So either he takes the next step like Brady, Big Ben, Or Wilson or he is Sanchez (Sanchez really sucked though), Bortles, or Mitchell.  It’s anyone’s guess at this point.  
 

the supporters (and we all should be hoping he reaches this point) seem to always shift the blame to other players while the haters (people who aren’t as sold) are slow to give credit for the improvements he did make this year.  
 

I think while he certainly improved, there are some big areas that concern me.  

 

Agreed.

 

People grossly underestimate how valuable a defense that allows 16.5 points per game is to any QB. 

 

People love to talk about his weapons, which seems like a serious cop out to me given how little scoring we needed on offense to win games. 

 

Allen does some things well, and he does some things really poorly. The things he does poorly, like throw the ball down the field, drastically need to improve. The fumbles need to improve. The history of taking sacks that knock us out of field goal range needs to improve. 

 

If it's going to happen, it's going to happen next year. 

 

If he's not compiling a QB rating in the mid 90s, and in the top half of the league in most categories, it's unlikely to ever happen. 

[ColoradoBills]

50 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I think this characterization is a bit off. I think there’s a major difference between pointing out that the guy didn’t get much help around him this year to add context vs shifting blame for areas that he needs to improve.

 

For example, there’s no question that Allen needs to improve his deep throws. You can certainly argue that his timing with his targets is off, and that a few were dropped or mishandled by WRs, but that in no way absolves him from needing to get better.

 

Same with regard to accuracy. It’s more than fair to be critical of those that claim he’s the most inaccurate QB in the game by pointing out that he’s 21st in on-target throw percentage. That is in no way/shape/form a claim that he doesn’t need to continue to improve his accuracy.

 

A good number of people seem to be unable to get away from extremes when it comes to this kid. My observation has been that the detractors are more aggressive in the application of Allen extremism, and I’m not too sure why.

 

Good post.  I haven't been a part of this thread but I will "piggyback" on your post to give my two cents.

 

Josh Allen AND the Bills offense need to improve.  Everyone knows that.  It's a team sport and every aspect of the offense needs to

improve to get more points scored. 

 

Allen needs a better deep ball.

Allen can improve on ball placement.

Allen HAS to learn to keep the ball secured.

OL/TE/RBs have to improve in pass protection.

Offense needs a lot more practice on their screen plays.

Pass "drops" (I got eyes and there are too many of them) need to get better.

Receivers need better separation.

Offensive playcalling/schemes needs improvement.

etc.

etc.

etc.

 

Not every one of these HAS to be improved but most of these bullet points need improvement.

I'm certain the Bills staff know this.  The question is will they be able to do it?

I expect the majority (60% or a little more) of this years "treasure" of $s and picks go to the offense.

If it doesn't I will be sad.

 

Josh Allen looked better this year to me but still has a lot to get done this off season to continue his development.

I know he will put in the effort along with the rest of the O.

 

The extremists on both sides will probably not care about this post.

I for one am looking forward to September.

 

 

[YattaOkasan]

45 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I understood your point, I'm saying that I think assigning 50% of that to the QB is totally arbitrary and capricious.  It totally is a quantifiable question how much of the blame goes to the QB on each play, but to quantify that requires information none of us have, but the team does.

 

I'm struggling with the point I think @Mango is trying to make.  I think we know Allen has a lot of responsibility at the line, and I agree with you we can't really quantify how much of the blame is on Allen because we don't have the information.  But I think the things such as setting protections and getting to the right play are where hes gonna need to take the biggest jump.

 

Over the season as information about the McVay communicating with Goff at the LoS and reflecting on Brady/Manning I started thinking you need your true OC to be taking the snaps.  I totally think Allen has improved a lot in the mechanics of being a QB and also still has a long way to go.  However, the real question I have now will be how does HE game plan week to week?  How does he read the defense and audible?  We know the Bills gave him the control, but is he exerting that control and correctly. 

 

Overall, I'm hopeful because of things like his wonderlic score and his lack of football coaching prior to reaching the NFL.  I have actually been pretty impressed with how cerebral he is; so I will be very interested to see his growth in the mental aspect of the game in the next season.

[Foxx]

all i know is.... the discussion today is no different than that of the past two decades plus. change out the culprit and it is the same. i long for the day when the conversation changes and the argument whether he is good or not, becomes one of just how good he is.

 

oh wait... that's the same argument isn't it?

[JaCrispy]

29 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

I'm struggling with the point I think @Mango is trying to make.  I think we know Allen has a lot of responsibility at the line, and I agree with you we can't really quantify how much of the blame is on Allen because we don't have the information.  But I think the things such as setting protections and getting to the right play are where hes gonna need to take the biggest jump.

 

Over the season as information about the McVay communicating with Goff at the LoS and reflecting on Brady/Manning I started thinking you need your true OC to be taking the snaps.  I totally think Allen has improved a lot in the mechanics of being a QB and also still has a long way to go.  However, the real question I have now will be how does HE game plan week to week?  How does he read the defense and audible?  We know the Bills gave him the control, but is he exerting that control and correctly. 

 

Overall, I'm hopeful because of things like his wonderlic score and his lack of football coaching prior to reaching the NFL.  I have actually been pretty impressed with how cerebral he is; so I will be very interested to see his growth in the mental aspect of the game in the next season.

Agreed...not long ago I called for Allen to start calling his own plays next season for that very reason...I also feel it would help to speed up his learning curve...

[YattaOkasan]

5 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Agreed...not long ago I called for Allen to start calling his own plays next season for that very reason...I also feel it would help to speed up his learning curve...

I think he had a lot of power to change plays, but I just dont know how often he did.  Then I also don't know how successful he was when he did it.  But agree I hope its speeding the curve up and will ultimately make a better end product.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

25 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

I'm struggling with the point I think @Mango is trying to make.  I think we know Allen has a lot of responsibility at the line, and I agree with you we can't really quantify how much of the blame is on Allen because we don't have the information.  But I think the things such as setting protections and getting to the right play are where hes gonna need to take the biggest jump.

 

Over the season as information about the McVay communicating with Goff at the LoS and reflecting on Brady/Manning I started thinking you need your true OC to be taking the snaps.  I totally think Allen has improved a lot in the mechanics of being a QB and also still has a long way to go.  However, the real question I have now will be how does HE game plan week to week?  How does he read the defense and audible?  We know the Bills gave him the control, but is he exerting that control and correctly. 

 

Overall, I'm hopeful because of things like his wonderlic score and his lack of football coaching prior to reaching the NFL.  I have actually been pretty impressed with how cerebral he is; so I will be very interested to see his growth in the mental aspect of the game in the next season.

 

Well, first of all, it's not clear how much control the Bills have really given Josh, if you listen carefully to what Daboll says.  For example, when asked after the Ravens game about Josh being responsible for setting the protections, he said "Sometimes he is.....Sometimes we just 'gap it up'"    Second,  when one assesses some of the spectacularly failed plays, sometimes the blocker is just getting his butt whipped.  I think if there's a blocker right there and he's left feeling the breeze of someone charging by him, that's not an Allen problem.

 

Likewise, I'm not sure about the "right play".   Again, Daboll has been cagy about what he says - has said things like "he has the ability to get us into most of the things he needs" or words to that effect  (this was after the Browns game).  There's still an offensive framework.

 

OK, I should put out there - I don't disagree with you that Allen needs to take a jump in terms of identifying the defense, setting protections, and making the right reads.  I'm just not at all sure what the boundries being placed on him by our coaching staff are: how much control Allen has and how much freedom of choice he has.  I'm sure he has presnap reads see this, this, this, check to a run....but then I'm sure he has limited, specific run plays he's supposed to check to.  That's not a knock on Allen, I think that's true of all but a small subset of QBs in the league.

 

 

[YattaOkasan]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, first of all, it's not clear how much control the Bills have really given Josh, if you listen carefully to what Daboll says.  

Fair.  I really dont know but its what im most interested at this point.  I thought I had seen some posts that he was getting a lot of pre snap responsibilities but maybe I misread.  I'm really hopeful thats where he takes a leap cause it feels like thats where Brees, Brady, Manning separated from the rest of the league.

[BringBackOrton]

4 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

I think this characterization is a bit off. I think there’s a major difference between pointing out that the guy didn’t get much help around him this year to add context vs shifting blame for areas that he needs to improve.

 

For example, there’s no question that Allen needs to improve his deep throws. You can certainly argue that his timing with his targets is off, and that a few were dropped or mishandled by WRs, but that in no way absolves him from needing to get better.

 

Same with regard to accuracy. It’s more than fair to be critical of those that claim he’s the most inaccurate QB in the game by pointing out that he’s 21st in on-target throw percentage. That is in no way/shape/form a claim that he doesn’t need to continue to improve his accuracy.

 

A good number of people seem to be unable to get away from extremes when it comes to this kid. My observation has been that the detractors are more aggressive in the application of Allen extremism, and I’m not too sure why.

Where did Allen “not get much help?”

 

Let’s do a deep dive on his receiver’s stats. His top two targets ranked 47th and 78th in drop rates this season. John Brown’s yards per target was higher than Kelce, Sanders, Julio, Kupp, Landry, Woods, Cooks, Allen, Tate, Adams, Hopkins, Odell.

 

Oh no! Some one is bringing up stats that don’t make Allen look like he’s throwing to Wyoming level receivers!

[Mango]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I understood your point, I'm saying that I think assigning 50% of that to the QB is totally arbitrary and capricious.  It totally is a quantifiable question how much of the blame goes to the QB on each play, but to quantify that requires information none of us have, but the team does.

 

You can stand by your idea all you like, but it's 1) way too simplistic and 2) probably wrong.

 

The point about your characterization of EP offensive system is that it's fairly meaningless whether or not you can run a ton of plays from a single formation, or the same play from a number of formations, with regard to the ability to beat Blitz0.  What matters is can you effectively execute THE CORRECT PLAY CHOICES TO BEAT BLITZ ZERO?  Can you run screen plays successfully?  Do you have more than one guy who can get open quickly on hot reads and are the plays designed to get them open fast?  Do you have guys on the OL, TE and RB who can block and hold their blocks effectively while the deep route develops?  Can your QB hit that deep post?  (Allen is responsible for that last, and this past season the answer was "no" more often than not)

 

If you don't, you're like the Devil's Dictionary definition of Consultant: "Guy who knows 500 ways to Make Love, and doesn't have a Girlfriend"

 

3 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

I'm struggling with the point I think @Mango is trying to make.  I think we know Allen has a lot of responsibility at the line, and I agree with you we can't really quantify how much of the blame is on Allen because we don't have the information.  But I think the things such as setting protections and getting to the right play are where hes gonna need to take the biggest jump.

 

Over the season as information about the McVay communicating with Goff at the LoS and reflecting on Brady/Manning I started thinking you need your true OC to be taking the snaps.  I totally think Allen has improved a lot in the mechanics of being a QB and also still has a long way to go.  However, the real question I have now will be how does HE game plan week to week?  How does he read the defense and audible?  We know the Bills gave him the control, but is he exerting that control and correctly. 

 

Overall, I'm hopeful because of things like his wonderlic score and his lack of football coaching prior to reaching the NFL.  I have actually been pretty impressed with how cerebral he is; so I will be very interested to see his growth in the mental aspect of the game in the next season.

 

2 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

Agreed...not long ago I called for Allen to start calling his own plays next season for that very reason...I also feel it would help to speed up his learning curve...

 

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, first of all, it's not clear how much control the Bills have really given Josh, if you listen carefully to what Daboll says.  For example, when asked after the Ravens game about Josh being responsible for setting the protections, he said "Sometimes he is.....Sometimes we just 'gap it up'"    Second,  when one assesses some of the spectacularly failed plays, sometimes the blocker is just getting his butt whipped.  I think if there's a blocker right there and he's left feeling the breeze of someone charging by him, that's not an Allen problem.

 

Likewise, I'm not sure about the "right play".   Again, Daboll has been cagy about what he says - has said things like "he has the ability to get us into most of the things he needs" or words to that effect  (this was after the Browns game).  There's still an offensive framework.

 

OK, I should put out there - I don't disagree with you that Allen needs to take a jump in terms of identifying the defense, setting protections, and making the right reads.  I'm just not at all sure what the boundries being placed on him by our coaching staff are: how much control Allen has and how much freedom of choice he has.  I'm sure he has presnap reads see this, this, this, check to a run....but then I'm sure he has limited, specific run plays he's supposed to check to.  That's not a knock on Allen, I think that's true of all but a small subset of QBs in the league.

 

 

 

 

I was originally talking about Allen's clunkers, where he failed to connect on at least 50% of his passes. I was asserting that when that happens, more often than not, most of the blame falls on the QB. Yes there is also blame on things like the OL, Defense, WR, etc. but largely, having a high frequency of games sub 50% is an issue with the passer himself. 

 

For reference, I quickly grabbed sub 50% completion games for QB's in their first 2 years/32 games, since 2000  Here are the bottom 20. It is not a great list

 

Granted there are some outliers, but it is not a great list of QB's. Most (not all) of which we would say were not good passers. The search function on PFR is awesome. 

 

Name	Number of Games Under 50% passing
Tim Tebow	10
Eli Manning	9
Joey Harrington	8
Michael Vick	8
Vince Young	8
Josh Allen	7
David Carr	7
Joe Flacco	7
Blaine Gabbert	7
Andrew Luck	7
Mike McMahon	7
Kyle Orton	7
Patrick Ramsey	7
JaMarcus Russell	7
Mark Sanchez	7
DeShone Kizer	6
Colt McCoy	6
Christian Ponder	6
Geno Smith	6
Brandon Weeden	6

 

 

[John from Riverside]

5 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

I think that the team has done just above the minimum when it comes to supporting Allen. They’ve given him nothing beyond serviceable when it comes to OL and WR. Contrast it to the approach that teams like Philly, LAR, Chicago, and Cleveland have taken to surround their young QBs with not only quality, but also quantity of explosive playmakers, and we’re waaaaay behind.

 

And yes, the Lamar criticism is outrageous. I’ve said many times that I like all 5 of the 2018 QBs, and I still think they can all be good.

I would like to see them do at the WR spot when they did with the OL/DL spots

 

They drafted players high at those spots (and they were the best available at the time which helps) AND they were aggressive in free agency in getting quality guys.

 

Now look at us....we actually have quality and depth at those spots....make it so the 3rd WR coming into the game is better then most teams number primary starters......get guys that can do multiple things.

[YattaOkasan]

7 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

 

 

 

 

I was originally talking about Allen's clunkers, where he failed to connect on at least 50% of his passes. I was asserting that when that happens, more often than not, most of the blame falls on the QB. Yes there is also blame on things like the OL, Defense, WR, etc. but largely, having a high frequency of games sub 50% is an issue with the passer himself. 

 

For reference, I quickly grabbed sub 50% completion games for QB's in their first 2 years/32 games, since 2000  Here are the bottom 20. It is not a great list

 

Granted there are some outliers, but it is not a great list of QB's. Most (not all) of which we would say were not good passers. The search function on PFR is awesome. 

 

Name	Number of Games Under 50% passing
Tim Tebow	10
Eli Manning	9
Joey Harrington	8
Michael Vick	8
Vince Young	8
Josh Allen	7
David Carr	7
Joe Flacco	7
Blaine Gabbert	7
Andrew Luck	7
Mike McMahon	7
Kyle Orton	7
Patrick Ramsey	7
JaMarcus Russell	7
Mark Sanchez	7
DeShone Kizer	6
Colt McCoy	6
Christian Ponder	6
Geno Smith	6
Brandon Weeden	6

 

Yup I was inclined to agree with you that if a QB is sub 50% it is mostly on him. I think it’s because the other parts that fail may still be because of him. But I also agree with Hap that it’s impossible to quantify. I’m so conflicted on this topic of how much his supporting cast let him down (particularly OL) because he has so many responsibilities.  Seeing growth in deep ball and this area is what I want. I’m just not sure how to quantify growth in this like I could the other areas like intermediate passing. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

35 minutes ago, Mango said:

I was originally talking about Allen's clunkers, where he failed to connect on at least 50% of his passes. I was asserting that when that happens, more often than not, most of the blame falls on the QB. Yes there is also blame on things like the OL, Defense, WR, etc. but largely, having a high frequency of games sub 50% is an issue with the passer himself. 

 

For reference, I quickly grabbed sub 50% completion games for QB's in their first 2 years/32 games, since 2000  Here are the bottom 20. It is not a great list

 

Granted there are some outliers, but it is not a great list of QB's. Most (not all) of which we would say were not good passers. The search function on PFR is awesome. 

 

Name	Number of Games Under 50% passing
Tim Tebow	10
Eli Manning	9
Joey Harrington	8
Michael Vick	8
Vince Young	8
Josh Allen	7
David Carr	7
Joe Flacco	7
Blaine Gabbert	7
Andrew Luck	7
Mike McMahon	7
Kyle Orton	7
Patrick Ramsey	7
JaMarcus Russell	7
Mark Sanchez	7
DeShone Kizer	6
Colt McCoy	6
Christian Ponder	6
Geno Smith	6
Brandon Weeden	6

 

I was going to go into this bit by bit, but the board dumped my response - probably just as well.

 

Let's just note that 4 of Allen's 7 games you list occurred his rookie season, when he was thrown into it halfway through Game 1 without the benefit of the 1st string reps (that's one of the games).  In another, Allen's 4th game against GB, we rushed for 58 freakin' yards (of which 19 were Allen's) and asked him to pass 33 times against GB's confusing coverage and rush.  We have the GM openly acknowledging "he didn't do enough" to put an OL and skill weapons around Allen that season.

 

And you want to use that to make a case that it's 50% the QB's fault when he doesn't hit 50% completions, because you assert that it's so?

 

What can I say.  We must agree to disagree, and that's That.

 

I note that there are 20 names on that list.  4 of them are QB with Superbowl wins, playoff appearances, probowl appearances, distinguished careers. 

 

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, BringBackOrton said:

Where did Allen “not get much help?”

 

Let’s do a deep dive on his receiver’s stats. His top two targets ranked 47th and 78th in drop rates this season. John Brown’s yards per target was higher than Kelce, Sanders, Julio, Kupp, Landry, Woods, Cooks, Allen, Tate, Adams, Hopkins, Odell.

 

Oh no! Some one is bringing up stats that don’t make Allen look like he’s throwing to Wyoming level receivers!

Holy cripes, for real? You’re casting a brutal aspersion here that I think you’re too smart to believe.

 

I don’t know how it’s possible that folks like yourself can continue to brutally straw man this discussion into “nobody can criticize josh111!1!1!!!!2!2!!” It’s tiresome and silly.

 

How did he not get much help? Really? The team scored 35 total TDs this year. Josh had 29 of them. That’s by far the highest percentage in the NFL. Contrast that with Lamar Jackson (who lead all QBs in total TDs)...he scored 40. I’d tell you how many TDs his team scored apart from him, but it would ruin the shock value when you see just how many it was.

 

Look around the league. Most offenses don’t rely darn-near-solely on their QB to out the ball in the end zone.

 

And yes, it’s nice that John Brown has a career year. It’s also nice that Cole Beasley had a career year. Both did so in an offense that attempted fewer passes than all but 8 teams. No way that had anything to do with the QB though.

 

Once again I find myself astounded that the Allen detractors have to go to silly extremes in order to have a discussion. It’s unfathomable.

[BringBackOrton]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

Holy cripes, for real? You’re casting a brutal aspersion here that I think you’re too smart to believe.

 

I don’t know how it’s possible that folks like yourself can continue to brutally straw man this discussion into “nobody can criticize josh111!1!1!!!!2!2!!” It’s tiresome and silly.

 

How did he not get much help? Really? The team scored 35 total TDs this year. Josh had 29 of them. That’s by far the highest percentage in the NFL. Contrast that with Lamar Jackson (who lead all QBs in total TDs)...he scored 40. I’d tell you how many TDs his team scored apart from him, but it would ruin the shock value when you see just how many it was.

 

Look around the league. Most offenses don’t rely darn-near-solely on their QB to out the ball in the end zone.

 

And yes, it’s nice that John Brown has a career year. It’s also nice that Cole Beasley had a career year. Both did so in an offense that attempted fewer passes than all but 8 teams. No way that had anything to do with the QB though.

 

Once again I find myself astounded that the Allen detractors have to go to silly extremes in order to have a discussion. It’s unfathomable.

Maybe the team would have scored more TDs if Josh and the O weren’t 26th in yards and plays per drive. 

 

It’s that pesky conundrum where the offensive positive stats are all because Josh was dragging those bums, and the negative stats are all because the rest of the offense sans Josh are bums.

[thebandit27]

41 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

Maybe the team would have scored more TDs if Josh and the O weren’t 26th in yards and plays per drive. 

 

It’s that pesky conundrum where the offensive positive stats are all because Josh was dragging those bums, and the negative stats are all because the rest of the offense sans Josh are bums.

Oh come on now. You know that’s not what I’ve said. Ever.

 

I have said that Allen is the only player on the offense that opposing DCs actually have to game plan to stop. I’ve also said that he’s simply not consistent enough for the team to produce offensively if he’s the sole focus of the opposing D’s game plan.

 

The fact of the matter with Allen is that he still misses too many throws, and he still fails to identify the easy (take what they give you) plays. I’ve said since March of 2018 that his missing throws is almost always due to him rushing his delivery, which results from the game moving too quickly. I have every reason to believe that he’ll continue to improve on that regard, but clearly he’s not where he needs to be. 
 

Now I shall go snack on a dark chocolate bar as I await the next person to tell me that pointing out an inaccuracy in a take means that nobody can criticize Josh ?

[BBills88]

Josh Allen will be a 64 - 65 % passer next season

[Mango]

50 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I was going to go into this bit by bit, but the board dumped my response - probably just as well.

 

Let's just note that 4 of Allen's 7 games you list occurred his rookie season, when he was thrown into it halfway through Game 1 without the benefit of the 1st string reps (that's one of the games).  In another, Allen's 4th game against GB, we rushed for 58 freakin' yards (of which 19 were Allen's) and asked him to pass 33 times against GB's confusing coverage and rush.  We have the GM openly acknowledging "he didn't do enough" to put an OL and skill weapons around Allen that season.

 

And you want to use that to make a case that it's 50% the QB's fault when he doesn't hit 50% completions, because you assert that it's so?

 

What can I say.  We must agree to disagree, and that's That.

 

I note that there are 20 names on that list.  4 of them are QB with Superbowl wins, playoff appearances, probowl appearances, distinguished careers. 

 

These are every bodies rookie years. Yes some guys panned out as very good QB’s and good passers. Most of them did not and had so Monday games in their first two years under 50% because they simply were not proficient passers (yet). 
 

I don’t know what to tell you man. If want to asterisk Allen’s games individually, go ahead and do it for everybody. I don’t think Allen is in this terribly bad place where we his situation is so much worse then his current and historical peers. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Now I shall go snack on a dark chocolate bar as I await the next person to tell me that pointing out an inaccuracy in a take means that nobody can criticize Josh ?

 

Please be careful.  If that's what you do for each instance, you shall be in danger of becoming pudgy.

2 minutes ago, Mango said:

These are every bodies rookie years.

 

You said "For reference, I quickly grabbed sub 50% completion games for QB's in their first 2 years/32 games, since 2000"

All those QB came into situations like Josh, devoid of OL and offensive talent?

All those QB were not supposed to start/not given 1st team reps during training camp?

 

Baloney.

 

Peace out.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Please be careful.  If that's what you do for each instance, you shall be in danger of becoming pudgy.

 

How do you know he isn't already?

 

 

[thebandit27]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Please be careful.  If that's what you do for each instance, you shall be in danger of becoming pudgy.

 

 

IIFYM bruh

??

1 minute ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

How do you know he isn't already?

 

 

Maybe Hapless has seen pics of Mrs Bandit and figured that I must be a stud to land that fox ? 

[LSHMEAB]

20 hours ago, Mango said:

You mean like, when you look at him in shorts, it moves a little bit? 

That's not the sign. The sign is contact. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

[LSHMEAB]

10 hours ago, pop gun said:

Josh is 5th in the league in how far the ball travels in the air towards it's target, he doesn't just settle for dump offs and he is not a checkdown charlie, which I like. Imagine if he did twice a game for 5 more yards his comp % would be well over 60% and the haters would be silent, but whatever. He's trying to get the ball down the field, he's aggressive, good and getting better. He's going to be a stud.

 

 

Games		Passing
Rk	Player	Tm	Age	Pos	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	IAY	IAY/PA ▼	CAY	CAY/Cmp	CAY/PA	YAC	YAC/Cmp
1	Matthew Stafford	DET	31	QB	8	8	187	291	2499	3097	10.6	1609	8.6	5.5	890	4.8
2	Jameis Winston	TAM	25	QB	16	16	380	626	5109	6500	10.4	3249	8.6	5.2	1860	4.9
3	Ryan Tannehill	TEN	31	QB	12	10	201	286	2742	2715	9.5	1494	7.4	5.2	1248	6.2
4	Russell Wilson*	SEA	31	QB	16	16	341	516	4110	4836	9.4	2402	7.0	4.7	1708	5.0
5	Josh Allen	BUF	23	QB	16	16	271	461	3089	4271	9.3	1758	6.5	3.8	1331	4.9
6	Dak Prescott	DAL	26	QB	16	16	388	596	4902	5510	9.2	2984	7.7	5.0	1918	4.9
7	Deshaun Watson*	HOU	24	QB	15	15	333	495	3852	4400	8.9	2170	6.5	4.4	1682	5.1
8	Aaron Rodgers*	GNB	36	QB	16	16	353	569	4002	5005	8.8	1993	5.6	3.5	2009	5.7
9	Ryan Fitzpatrick	MIA	37	QB	15	13	311	502	3529	4442	8.8	2252	7.2	4.5	1277	4.1
10	Patrick Mahomes*	KAN	24	QB	14	14	319	484	4031	4273	8.8	2076	6.5	4.3	1955	6.1
11	Lamar Jackson*+	BAL	22	QB	15	15	265	401	3127	3545	8.8	1767	6.7	4.4	1360	5.1
12	Philip Rivers	LAC	38	QB	16	16	390	591	4615	5031	8.5	2430	6.2	4.1	2185	5.6
13	Baker Mayfield	CLE	24	QB	16	16	317	534	3827	4471	8.4	1992	6.3	3.7	1835	5.8
14	Sam Darnold	NYJ	22	QB	13	13	273	441	3024	3619	8.2	1554	5.7	3.5	1470	5.4
15	Matt Ryan	ATL	34	QB	15	15	408	616	4466	5007	8.1	2816	6.9	4.6	1650	4.0
16	Kyle Allen	CAR	23	QB	13	12	303	489	3322	3938	8.1	1641	5.4	3.4	1681	5.5
17	Carson Wentz	PHI	27	QB	16	16	388	607	4039	4878	8.0	2235	5.8	3.7	1804	4.6
18	Daniel Jones	NYG	22	QB	13	12	284	459	3027	3673	8.0	1619	5.7	3.5	1408	5.0
19	Mason Rudolph	PIT	24	QB	10	8	176	283	1765	2261	8.0	841	4.8	3.0	924	5.3
20	Mitchell Trubisky	CHI	25	QB	15	15	326	516	3138	4102	7.9	1729	5.3	3.4	1409	4.3
21	Jacoby Brissett	IND	27	QB	15	15	272	447	2942	3521	7.9	1437	5.3	3.2	1505	5.5
22	Jared Goff	LAR	25	QB	16	16	394	626	4638	4825	7.7	2388	6.1	3.8	2250	5.7
23	Tom Brady	NWE	42	QB	16	16	373	613	4057	4633	7.6	2233	6.0	3.6	1824	4.9
24	Kirk Cousins	MIN	31	QB	15	15	307	444	3603	3395	7.6	1818	5.9	4.1	1785	5.8
25	Andy Dalton	CIN	32	QB	13	13	314	528	3494	3969	7.5	1834	5.8	3.5	1660	5.3
26	Kyler Murray	ARI	22	QB	16	16	349	542	3722	3987	7.4	1870	5.4	3.5	1852	5.3
27	Gardner Minshew	JAX	23	QB	14	12	285	470	3271	3328	7.1	1687	5.9	3.6	1584	5.6
28	Case Keenum	WAS	31	QB	10	8	160	247	1707	1700	6.9	907	5.7	3.7	800	5.0
29	Joe Flacco	DEN	34	QB	8	8	171	262	1822	1750	6.7	915	5.4	3.5	907	5.3
30	Derek Carr	OAK	28	QB	16	16	361	513	4054	3364	6.6	1932	5.4	3.8	2122	5.9
31	Jimmy Garoppolo	SFO	28	QB	16	16	329	476	3978	3088	6.5	1806	5.5	3.8	2172	6.6
32	Drew Brees*	NOR	40	QB	11	11	281	378	2979	2443	6.5	1495	5.3	4.0	1484	5.3

That's all good and well, but the problem with this stat is that his YPA increased by a mere .1. As much progress as he made, he still only increased that number from 6.6 to 6.7. The key for Allen is not necessarily completion percentage, but yards per attempt. I don't care if his completion percentage remains stagnant if that YPA jumps into the 7.5 range. Air yards only matter if you're completing enough of the shots.