Did “The Drop” in Carolina Derail Zay Jones’s Confidence?

[Phil The Thrill]

6 minutes ago, Dopey said:

According to FOXSports, and other sites, he had 3 drops last year. Michael Thomas had 3, Calvin Ridley had 10, Travis Kelcey had 7, Eldelman 8, Julio Jones had 9. Even Gronk had 3.

Kinda overblown IMO.  

 

Overblown?  Now go back and check the stats from his rookie season.  He had one of the highest drop rate of any WR.  Then you wonder why he ha a reputation for dropping passes.  

[BADOLBILZ]

13 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

It is interesting how well they nail those later round picks, yet struggle reeling in offensive talent in the early rounds. Ford to me was not going to contribute at RT this year after watching film of him; thought he would best serve at guard for this season. Not the worse thing in the world if he is outplayed and has to ride the pine a bit.

 

I still think he would do a solid job at guard, but Feliciano is currently playing at a high level so he should be backing up both RG and RT spots as he grows into an NFL calibre o-lineman. Just needs to work on the foot speed if he is manning the edge at RT.

Sends the wrong message if your org feels compelled to play their draft picks if a UFA and/or PS player is out-performing them and it feels like politics when they have Ford as 1st on the RT depth chart when Ty Nsekhe has the edge right now.

 

 

 

I have a theory about the Bills and second round picks:

 

I believe that there is such a big focus on that first round pick every draft season and there is usually great satisfaction when they get one of those players that they really wanted.........then in the second round they feel like they can afford to address a "need" rather than just take the potentially most impactful player available.

 

This has seemingly extended to all Bills regimes.

     

Reaching for needs too often results in failure.  

 

In years where they haven't had a first round pick they have been astoundingly efficient..............Thurman Thomas,  Sam Cowart,  Roscoe Parrish and Ron Darby............basically 3 for 4 with legitimately exceptional players.   

 

Small sample size but over the course of the last 60 years the % of misses in round 2 for the Bills is staggering.

 

I think the mindset is very different without a first round pick.........no longer playing with "house money" so to speak.....it then feels more important to get the potentially most impactful player or BPA in round 2 and subsequently the result is better draft picks.

[BADOLBILZ]

38 minutes ago, Phil The Thrill said:

 

I don’t know if you really can say that.  Take a look at his game logs.  He has yet to eclipse the 100 yard mark in two years are largely a starting WR.  By NFL WR standards his numbers are very pedestrian - certainly not anywhere near where he should be as a 2nd round pick

 

 

I just mean he's had games where he strung some excellent catches together without a bad drop.    No he hasn't had a great one yet.    As @Kelly the Dog pointed out he gets nothing for YAC so eclipsing 100 is very difficult.     When players struggle to catch the ball they tend to leave their feet behind.........he's not the first of those we've had at WR or TE.

[Dopey]

16 minutes ago, Phil The Thrill said:

 

Overblown?  Now go back and check the stats from his rookie season.  He had one of the highest drop rate of any WR.  Then you wonder why he ha a reputation for dropping passes.  

Yes, 3 dropped passes last year is overblown to me and I don't wonder about the reputation of a rookie who struggled. Many great ones struggled as rookies and many will in the future.

[dave mcbride]

17 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

I have a theory about the Bills and second round picks:

 

I believe that there is such a big focus on that first round pick every draft season and there is usually great satisfaction when they get one of those players that they really wanted.........then in the second round they feel like they can afford to address a "need" rather than just take the potentially most impactful player available.

 

This has seemingly extended to all Bills regimes.

     

Reaching for needs too often results in failure.  

 

In years where they haven't had a first round pick they have been astoundingly efficient..............Thurman Thomas,  Sam Cowart,  Roscoe Parrish and Ron Darby............basically 3 for 4 with legitimately exceptional players.   

 

Small sample size but over the course of the last 60 years the % of misses in round 2 for the Bills is staggering.

 

I think the mindset is very different without a first round pick.........no longer playing with "house money" so to speak.....it then feels more important to get the potentially most impactful player or BPA in round 2 and subsequently the result is better draft picks.

I don't think that Darby is exceptional. He had a good rookie season and remains the Eagles' best CB, but he's not really that good (he was torched repeatedly on Monday night). He's a solid pro, but he's not as good as, say, Paul Posluzny turned out to be (a guy the Bills traded up for in the second). He was still a good pick given how important quality CBs are. Roscoe was a good punt returner and nothing else. 

Edited September 18, 2019 by dave mcbride

[LSHMEAB]

I just do not believe in such narratives. It takes a certain level of TRUE confidence to excel in the National Football League, and even more so at WR than a few other positions. If his confidence was rattled by one drop/not a great throw by Tyrod either; then he never had the prerequisite confidence to begin with.

[dave mcbride]

19 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

I have a theory about the Bills and second round picks:

 

I believe that there is such a big focus on that first round pick every draft season and there is usually great satisfaction when they get one of those players that they really wanted.........then in the second round they feel like they can afford to address a "need" rather than just take the potentially most impactful player available.

 

This has seemingly extended to all Bills regimes.

     

Reaching for needs too often results in failure.  

 

In years where they haven't had a first round pick they have been astoundingly efficient..............Thurman Thomas,  Sam Cowart,  Roscoe Parrish and Ron Darby............basically 3 for 4 with legitimately exceptional players.   

 

Small sample size but over the course of the last 60 years the % of misses in round 2 for the Bills is staggering.

 

I think the mindset is very different without a first round pick.........no longer playing with "house money" so to speak.....it then feels more important to get the potentially most impactful player or BPA in round 2 and subsequently the result is better draft picks.

The greatest reach-for-need failure in the second round I can think of was Travares Tillman. Butler coveted Mike Brown (a great player), but he went in the high 30s. He was all set to draft Deon Grant, but Carolina picked him right before the Bills. He was stuck with the last remaining seemingly capable safety, and he drafted for need. Tillman was terrible. He should have traded up for Brown!

[Dopey]

51 minutes ago, Phil The Thrill said:

 

I don’t know if you really can say that.  Take a look at his game logs.  He has yet to eclipse the 100 yard mark in two years are largely a starting WR.  By NFL WR standards his numbers are very pedestrian - certainly not anywhere near where he should be as a 2nd round pick

The numbers are pedestrian, no doubt, but he has no control over where he was drafted. That's on Beane. Kinda like Shaq getting flack for not living up to a 1st round pick. That's on Rex and crew. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Dopey said:

I want to thank Bills Fan1959 for providing this clip. It's a lot clearer in this clip what happened to Zay on this route. I would love for you guys/girls to review this clip. Specifically when Zay and the LB that drops into his zone get to the 19 yd line. As Zay begins to make his cut, his left foot makes contact with the right foot of the LB. They BOTH stumble from the contact. This, in turn, throws off the timing of the play and the crispness of the route. Zay is clearly not stumbling over his own feet as some have claimed. Alphadawg, please don't think I'm singling you out for any personal reasons, but I found this quote to be interesting posted by you earlier in this thread:" It was a great ball actually, it was not a clean route where Zay tripped on his own feet slightly on his cut that threw him just off where he he didn’t get a clean turnaround and wasn’t where he would have been if he hit the route clean.". He wasn't where he was supposed to be, that is correct, but IMO that contact as he was just beginning his cut affected the timing and precision of that particular cut. Clearly, he didn't trip on his own feet. I say clearly for two reasons: 1) the video shows it and 2) unless you think the LB tripped over his feet too, he also clearly stumbles as a result of that contact. Again, Alpha, this was not meant to pick on you or meant to be personal. Just pointing out, what to me is an oversight. He probably runs a "cleaner" route, if not for their feet getting tangled enough for both to stumble.

 

 

 

Im not taking your post personal at all bud.  You’re just responding with your thoughts.

 

I totally get your point here based on this angle, but when this play happened there was closer and clear footage that I believe it showed the LB and Zay did not actually make contact and Zay actually stumbled on his cut over his own foot.  

 

Thats why so many are were adamant about it, there were other clips that showed clearly his feet on that route.  In this clip, the LB is in between Zays feet and the camera, so you can’t actually see what happened.  

 

36 minutes ago, Dopey said:

Yes, 3 dropped passes last year is overblown to me and I don't wonder about the reputation of a rookie who struggled. Many great ones struggled as rookies and many will in the future.

 

Can we please stop this false claim that Zay only dropped 3 passes last year?

 

How can anyone claim that with a straight face when he is on the Josh Allen dropped passes video last year dropping 8 passes?  And that doesn’t even include the 4 games with Peterman and Anderson.  

Edited September 18, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[Dopey]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Im not taking your post personal at all bud.  You’re just responding with your thoughts.

 

I totally get your point here based on this angle, but when this play happened there was closer and clear footage that I believe it showed the LB and Zay did not actually make contact and Zay actually stumbled on his cut over his own foot.  

 

Thats why so many are were adamant about it, there were other clips that showed clearly his feet on that route.  In this clip, the LB is in between Zays feet and the camera, so you can’t actually see what happened.  

Thanks for the reply. I still see contact, but will keep looking for other angles. If you have any, let me know. PM a link if you want/can. I am dropping this, it is more for my curiosity. Thanks again. 

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, Dopey said:

Thanks for the reply. I still see contact, but will keep looking for other angles. If you have any, let me know. PM a link if you want/can. I am dropping this, it is more for my curiosity. Thanks again. 

 

Its honestly just splitting hairs anyway, I mean the stumble was clear, the reason is almost irrelevant really.  It just really shows that TT threw the ball to the right spot, I mean even Zay took 100% responsibility for the play after the game.  

 

Probably pretty tough to find the right footage today anyway given that was 2 years ago.  Maybe in our own thread archives might be a place to look if you want to find out for your own curiosity.  

 

My biggest issue isnt the one drop, its all the other drops.  I mean this one in question was also his 2nd game as a pro, and at the time I just shook it off as no big deal in terms of his career arc.  But, the rest of that season he couldn't catch a cold, so I think thats why some are wondering if that play rattled his confidence to where it just compounded on itself every time he let that lack of confidence affect another play.  

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

I don't think that Darby is exceptional. He had a good rookie season and remains the Eagles' best CB, but he's not really that good (he was torched repeatedly on Monday night). He's a solid pro, but he's not as good as, say, Paul Posluzny turned out to be (a guy the Bills traded up for in the second). He was still a good pick given how important quality CBs are. Roscoe was a good punt returner and nothing else. 

 

 

Darby has been hampered by injuries that have taken a toll.    But he came to the Bills healthy and was certainly exceptional early on.      

[CLTbills]

If a drop 2 years ago derailed his confidence, he shouldn't be on this team.

[Dablitzkrieg]

I think him jumping out of a window high on bath salts messed up his hand-eye coordination

[BADOLBILZ]

4 minutes ago, CLTbills said:

If a drop 2 years ago derailed his confidence, he shouldn't be on this team.

 

 

Josh Reed managed to stay on roster until 2009 after his early season 2003 career-yip-inducing drop...........let's hope push comes to shove on Zay prior to 2025.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, Dopey said:

According to FOXSports, and other sites, he had 3 drops last year. Michael Thomas had 3, Calvin Ridley had 10, Travis Kelcey had 7, Eldelman 8, Julio Jones had 9. Even Gronk had 3.

Kinda overblown IMO.  

 

Already pointed this out to you.  How can he have 3 drops when there are 8 drops alone on video in just the Josh Allen games last year.

 

He did not under any circumstance only have 3 drops last year.  It’s on film.  

[Don Otreply]

4 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

I'm not sure why you think he is a tepid route runner, the guy is frequently open. But yeah, most of the rest is probably true. 

He does know the routes, but it appears he is out of sync with Allen frequently. Maybe he is not finishing his routes in a fashion that works for our QB, but what ever it is he is doing, he is doing it wrong, and is resulting in low production, ain’t nobody got time for that...

 

Go Bills!!!

[buffalobillswin]

Because Tyrod threw the ball it was a bad pass. Had Allen thrown the same ball, it would have been all on Zay. I think we all know why that is.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

10 minutes ago, buffalobillswin said:

Because Tyrod threw the ball it was a bad pass. Had Allen thrown the same ball, it would have been all on Zay. I think we all know why that is.

 

Not true....

 

Those who’ve declared Zay sux irrespective of qb blame zay

 

Those who’ve declared TT sux blame TT

 

those who’ve declared Josh sux would blame josh or insist he would have has a worse throw

 

A few others would blame it all on McDermott 

 

and one one or two others would insist Ralph is cheap. 

 

 

Edited September 18, 2019 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[DBilz2500]

17 hours ago, Big C said:

I think it weighed on him considerably. However, two years is a long time to have the yips. I hope that's not still holding him back. Zay has been inconsistent, but this year he has made the tough catches he needed to make - notably one to convert a 4th down against the Jets. He is doing a little better this year, so far.

Zay caught a 4th down pass vs Jets? Did we even go for it on a 4th down in that game?

[Big C]

2 minutes ago, DBilz2500 said:

Zay caught a 4th down pass vs Jets? Did we even go for it on a 4th down in that game?

 

You're right, I misremembered, he converted on 2nd and 10 for 20 yards in the 4th quarter on the game winning drive. Still an important catch. 

[Patrick Duffy]

5 hours ago, Dopey said:

According to FOXSports, and other sites, he had 3 drops last year. Michael Thomas had 3, Calvin Ridley had 10, Travis Kelcey had 7, Eldelman 8, Julio Jones had 9. Even Gronk had 3.

Kinda overblown IMO.  

Fox sports is wrong. I believe this has been discussed in previous threads. Anyway,yes he had more than 3 drops lol

[Patrick Duffy]

4 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

I just do not believe in such narratives. It takes a certain level of TRUE confidence to excel in the National Football League, and even more so at WR than a few other positions. If his confidence was rattled by one drop/not a great throw by Tyrod either; then he never had the prerequisite confidence to begin with.

I agree with this, but IMO it may be when he got to the big leagues he got a little shook up all together. As pointed out by some, he had good hands in college but when he got with the big boys those hands faded.

 

But why? Catching a football is catching a football right? So I just think that "maybe" the pressure of the big leagues may have gotten in his head. I really don't know, but in any event he has been disappointing.

[DBilz2500]

36 minutes ago, Big C said:

 

You're right, I misremembered, he converted on 2nd and 10 for 20 yards in the 4th quarter on the game winning drive. Still an important catch. 

Yup I do remember that. There’s just nothing about his physical abilities and overall skill set that makes him stand out as an NFL WR. Really just looks like a dime-a-dozen type player. 

[Big C]

14 minutes ago, DBilz2500 said:

Yup I do remember that. There’s just nothing about his physical abilities and overall skill set that makes him stand out as an NFL WR. Really just looks like a dime-a-dozen type player. 

 

Agreed. But, he is a hard worker, willing blocker, good teammate, etc. I don't think there is a trade market for him, but it does us no good to cut him either. They'll ride out his contract and probably not keep him around unless he improves.

[Teddy KGB]

2 hours ago, buffalobillswin said:

Because Tyrod threw the ball it was a bad pass. Had Allen thrown the same ball, it would have been all on Zay. I think we all know why that is.

 

Because Tyrod sucks ? 

[DBilz2500]

1 hour ago, Big C said:

 

Agreed. But, he is a hard worker, willing blocker, good teammate, etc. I don't think there is a trade market for him, but it does us no good to cut him either. They'll ride out his contract and probably not keep him around unless he improves.

Yup totally agree. He’s not an asset but really not much of a liability at this point. 

[Pbomb]

11 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

No it wasn’t. Watch his stumblin’, bumblin’ route.

This clip doesn’t show him screwing up the route! There are other, better views that track him, and it was discussed ad nauseum here for a couple of weeks after it happened.

Looks like a bad pass to me, has to stop running reach behind him and jump backwards to try to make a very hard catch. Bad  pass from a bad qb 

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, Pbomb said:

Looks like a bad pass to me, has to stop running reach behind him and jump backwards to try to make a very hard catch. Bad  pass from a bad qb 

 

The QB threw the ball to where the WR should have been.  Zay wasn’t where he was supposed to be and admitted so himself and took 100% responsibility for this play.  It was a great pass and a bad route by Zay.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

19 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said:

So much so that virtually every catch he tackles himself because he immediately stops and goes to the ground to make sure that he catches it, ensuring no YAC. It's pitiful to watch.

 

I’m on record elsewhere disagreeing with this take

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

Fox sports is wrong. I believe this has been discussed in previous threads. Anyway,yes he had more than 3 drops lol

 

Fans may feel he had more than 3 drops, but the guys scoring drops have certain criteria, and the balls thrown at Zay and not caught by those criteria numbered 3

 

I think Zay’s big problem is where he was drafted and the role he was expected to fill on the team.   I think his college WR coach plugged for Zay when he became WR coach for the Bills.  Well, the WR coach wasn’t “all that” in the NFL (only lasted 1 year) and Zay really wasn’t a high 2nd round pick, either.  Then he was brought into a WR room full of castoff vets and scrap heap guys (and Kelvin Benjamin, what a role model there).

 

Is he a good NFL WR right now?  No, he is not.  Is he trash?  No, not that either.  He’s flashed, he’s obviously still honing his craft this year.  Either he picks it up, or the folks who hypothesize the Bills draft a WR high and move on have something.  But a lot of fan problems with Zay have to do with Juju Smith-schuster.  Except we don’t ask, if Zay spent 2 years playing across from AB with Big Ben throwing to him, would he look any better?  Would JSS look more like Zay if he’d been in his shoes?  Maybe.  Who knows.  Ship has sailed.

[Patrick Duffy]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Fans may feel he had more than 3 drops, but the guys scoring drops have certain criteria, and the balls thrown at Zay and not caught by those criteria numbered 3

 

I think Zay’s big problem is where he was drafted and the role he was expected to fill on the team.   I think his college WR coach plugged for Zay when he became WR coach for the Bills.  Well, the WR coach wasn’t “all that” in the NFL (only lasted 1 year) and Zay really wasn’t a high 2nd round pick, either.  Then he was brought into a WR room full of castoff vets and scrap heap guys (and Kelvin Benjamin, what a role model there).

 

Is he a good NFL WR right now?  No, he is not.  Is he trash?  No, not that either.  He’s flashed, he’s obviously still honing his craft this year.  Either he picks it up, or the folks who hypothesize the Bills draft a WR high and move on have something.  But a lot of fan problems with Zay have to do with Juju Smith-schuster.  Except we don’t ask, if Zay spent 2 years playing across from AB with Big Ben throwing to him, would he look any better?  Would JSS look more like Zay if he’d been in his shoes?  Maybe.  Who knows.  Ship has sailed.

Yeah that's all good, but realistically he had more than 3 drops.  Anyways, as far as the other bolded goes, I really don't care about Juju, so I definitely don't fall into that category.

 

The rest of the post, I can kinda agree with.

[KCNC]

21 hours ago, Phil The Thrill said:

Here’s an interesting take that I heard on the Bills Beat podcast.  The hosts were talking about Zay jones and I believe it was Matt Fairburn who wondered whether the dropped pass against Carolina in 2017 messed with Zay’s confidence.

 

Zay was supposed to be a WR with  some of the best hands in the draft.  He caught everything in college and broke records.  He was thought of to be NFL ready and an immediate contributor.   He was quiet in preseason but as far as I can remember, no one questions his hands. 

 

But since the drop drop in Week 2 of the season, Zay was inconsistent and couldn’t catch routine passes.  He had an extremely high drop rate which was among the highest in the NFL his rookie year.  

 

There was one game against NYJ on Monday where it FINALLY looked like he was coming into his own.  But then, he was tripped and left the game with an injury.  

 

Last year he led the Bills in Receiving but he has yet to eclipse a 100 yard performance.  He also had a few costly drops.  He has contributed at times, but when you consider his draft status, he’s been somewhat of a disappointment at WR.  

 

So how do you explain the lack of production from Zay?  Is it an issue of confidence?  Or is he just not very good at getting open and catching the ball?

 

 

Was at the game and sitting in that end of the end zone.  It was a REALLY tough catch.  It would have been great but I'd hardly call it a drop.

[Kelly the Dog]

30 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I’m on record elsewhere disagreeing with this take

And you would be wrong elsewhere, too. He did it again against the Giants. It's not every single catch of course, but the vast majority.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

22 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said:

And you would be wrong elsewhere, too. He did it again against the Giants. It's not every single catch of course, but the vast majority.

 

“Virtually Every Catch”

 

Unless I’m right

[Socal-805]

 

 

Can't he simply just "suck"?

 

 

On 9/18/2019 at 1:35 PM, buffalobillswin said:

Because Tyrod threw the ball it was a bad pass. Had Allen thrown the same ball, it would have been all on Zay. I think we all know why that is.

 

 

Because TYrod sucked??

 

 

[Kelly the Dog]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

“Virtually Every Catch”

 

Unless I’m right

You have lived long enough and have been around this board enough to know what that means. It's around the 90% range the last several games. Name the last catch he made that he caught cleanly turned up field and gained any kind of yardage. Name the last tackle he broke after he made a catch.

[Socal-805]

On 9/18/2019 at 5:19 AM, dave mcbride said:

Yes! Thanks. I mean, what the heck is he doing there? That is the very definition of an uncrisp route. He ran a corner route and the qb saw that he had a clear shot at the ez, and the receiver did not adjust. Granted, it was his second game, so all is forgiven, but a starting receiver has to be better than that. He basically blew an easy TD.

 

I'm surprised he didn't just fall down.  Horrible.