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Inigo Montoya

Ed Oliver 2019 Sack Total; Over / Under 9

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Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, Augie said:

 

I’m not a gambler, but I am willing to bet there is a 100% chance it is one or the other. Any takers? 

 

 

 

If he gets 7 sacks with penetration to mess up run plays I’ll be happy. Any more and I’m thrilled, 

 

What if he gets 9? Haha

Edited by billspro

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21 hours ago, fansince88 said:

Im going to go out on a limb and say there is a 50% chance it is 9 or over and a 50% chance it is 9 or under. 

Not really.

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14 hours ago, fansince88 said:

Invites went out this week. Rsvp is due in a month. We actually sent north of 200. She is the kind of girl that had 20 kids say they were coming to her birthday party and 4 showed ip. That was alot of pizza left over. If just aunts, uncles, 1st and second cousins show up it will be 125.we shall see.

 

UPDATE: The son’s GF has done group sales at the Hilton downtown for several years and been VERY successful. She was just offered a job doing the same thing at the Omni attached to CNN, apparently steps up from where she was. Happy and proud!

 

But to make it relevant, one of their favorite destinations is Asheville, NC, and the preferred stay is the OMNI Grove Park Inn. They have talked about multiple possible wedding locations. Asheville, Hilton Head Island, etc. Any discount at the Grove Park Inn would be GOLDEN!  Magnificent place, cool city. 

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i would definitely take the under- i expect 2 through the first about 9 games and 4 the rest of the way.  i do expect by the end of the year his impact to be large.

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9 minutes ago, billspro said:

 

What if he gets 9? Haha

As I posted earlier, THAT is why I do not gamble!      😋

 

Details, details.......

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3 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

Hey Alphadawg7

 

I picked 9 based on Darnold's rookie campaign sack total. To provide a little context for that number, in Darnold's rookie season,  2014, the St. Louis Rams finished with a 6-10 record.  Their defense was ranked 16th or 17th in the league depending on which criteria you use.  The team finished with 40 total sacks which ranked them 13th in the league.  Robert Quinn led the team in sacks with 10.5 sacks.  So that defense was not some juggernaut that was routinely destroying people that Darnold was playing in.

 

As an aside the #1 team in the league for sacks that year was our very own Buffalo Bills with 54 sacks...

 

Oliver's entire game and value is based on his ability to get into the back field quickly and disrupt. He is a rookie and there is always a concern with how he will transition to the pros and that is something that you need to consider when estimating how productive he will be this year.  I agree with you, if he gives us 7-8 sacks I wouldn't be upset at all, but I think this Bill's defense is going to be really stout, I hope much better than the 16th ranked defense Darnold was playing on his rookie season.   I think with more talent playing along side Oliver, he is going to have more opportunities to produce. Time will tell.  Opening day can't get here fast enough... 

 

Inigo

 

 

Gotcha, all good and thanks for explanation :)

 

I think if he has five or more sacks, that will be a good start.  Certainly has the potential for double digits of course, but using the start to the best DT in football (Darnold) to establish Oliver’s O/U just seems to be setting the expectations bar a bit high before he steps on the field.  

 

 

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20 hours ago, Drunken Pygmy Goat said:

I'll take the under, and say he finishes with a very respectable 7. Hughes on the other hand should benefit from the interior havoc and collect double digits.

I'm not much of a gambler, but I absolutely agree about Jerry Hughes' sack total going up this season.  I think Kyle Williams had a great career for Buffalo, but he was not the kind of disruptive player we all believe we're getting in Ed Oliver.  Offenses are not going to be able to cheat their blocking schemes toward Jerry.  He's going to get a lot more one on one blocking situations.  I'm also counting on Trent Murphy's full health making a difference on the other side.    Best case scenario, it could be a lot of fun for the defense this season.

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I can see anywhere from as low as 4 to as high as 9, so I'm going with 6.

Even 6 sacks for a DT is pretty damn great though. Early in his college career he was being compared to Donald, but he never performed as well as Donald did in college, and isn't the animal on the field Donald is either.

Doesn't mean he can't become a great defensive threat, but Donald is on another plane of existence as a defender. Even being in the conversation would mean Oliver is doing something right. Good luck to him!

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I'll go under as 9 is a big number for a rookie particularly on a team that struggled last year in that area.

 

But would change my vote to over if they still somehow were to sign Clowney or someone of similar ability. 

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Under 

I would be really surprised if he gets more then 4 

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On 6/14/2019 at 11:59 PM, Augie said:

Love every minute! 

 

My wife is Lebanese, and her father was for decades the only dentist in the small town of Rock Hill, SC. We were well over 500. If a single non-blood relation attends.....where do you draw the line? 

 

We sent my son a list of “must have” family and it was 40-50. I can see how you get to 200 in a hurry!  His GF is one of SIX girls in the family! You could work your whole life just to afford to marry them off! Thank God her family is awesome and her dad is quite successful. But there are limits! Yowza! 

I lived in Rock Hill for a little over a year.  Clover before that.

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1 minute ago, formerlyofCtown said:

I lived in Rock Hill for a little over a year.  Clover before that.

 

Were you at my wedding???

 

😋

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18 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

lol dont think so.

 

Yeah, a lot of people there barely remember it. You wouldn’t be alone! Out of 500, about 480 were well behaved. The other 20 were mine! Nobody got arrested, as far as I know, but there was a little problem with a rental car not respecting a median in a hotel perking lot..... 

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Posted (edited)

Using 9 sacks for over under reeks of unrealistic expectations.  How many rookie DT's in the history of the league have produced 9 sacks?  Not saying it can't happen but it's highly unlikely.  Donald is off the charts, there are always comparisons made but rarely do people perform to them.

Edited by mattynh

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56 minutes ago, mattynh said:

Using 9 sacks for over under reeks of unrealistic expectations.  How many rookie DT's in the history of the league have produced 9 sacks?  Not saying it can't happen but it's highly unlikely.  Donald is off the charts, there are always comparisons made but rarely do people perform to them.

 

The answer is...  6

 

ames Tackles
Rk Player Year Age Draft Tm Lg G GS Sk Solo Ast Comb TFL QBHits
1 Keith Millard 1985 23 1-13 MIN NFL 16 6 11.0 0 0 0    
2 Dana Stubblefield 1993 23 1-26 SFO NFL 16 14 10.5 64 0 64    
3 Santana Dotson 1992 23 5-132 TAM NFL 16 16 10.0 71 0 71    
4 Ndamukong Suh 2010 23 1-2 DET NFL 16 16 10.0 48 17 65 13 17
5 Corey Simon 2000 23 1-6 PHI NFL 16 16 9.5 38 13 51 8  
6

Aaron Donald

2014 23 1-13 STL NFL 16 12 9.0

 

 

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under

 

kyle williams went over 9 sacks for a season once in his career

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52 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

The answer is...  6

 

ames Tackles
Rk Player Year Age Draft Tm Lg G GS Sk Solo Ast Comb TFL QBHits
1 Keith Millard 1985 23 1-13 MIN NFL 16 6 11.0 0 0 0    
2 Dana Stubblefield 1993 23 1-26 SFO NFL 16 14 10.5 64 0 64    
3 Santana Dotson 1992 23 5-132 TAM NFL 16 16 10.0 71 0 71    
4 Ndamukong Suh 2010 23 1-2 DET NFL 16 16 10.0 48 17 65 13 17
5 Corey Simon 2000 23 1-6 PHI NFL 16 16 9.5 38 13 51 8  
6

Aaron Donald

2014 23 1-13 STL NFL 16 12 9.0

 

 

 Donald is already ahead of the rest in career sacks.....the guy is a true beast.

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I love Oliver but some of you don’t really know tough it is for DTs to get double digit sacks.  We didn’t have sack from a DT besides Kyle Williams.  Some fans need to be more realistic in their expectations.  

 

I do expect in time for EO to be a pro bowler.  But it’s going to take time.

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