Bills historic draft picks - 2nd contracts

[mushypeaches]

With this year's draft complete and everyone high on our choices, as well as a lot of the current regimes decisions over the past 2 years, I decided to delve into the Bills draft history over the past 30 or so years, just to remember the history of hits & misses, and try to think about why we've been largely stuck in the mud since the SB era.

 

One can analyze our draft history in lots of different ways, most of them leading to frustration, but I decided to look at how many of our draft picks over time received 2nd contracts from the team.  There are so many reasons why we haven't been successful, with mediocre drafting being one piece of the puzzle.  But along with having constant turnover in coaching staffs and philosophies, I'm willing to bet that we have one of the lowest percentages of re-signing our draft picks since the start of the modern Free Agency era (1993).  A lot of it is "chicken vs egg" - meaning that with turnover in regimes, the new braintrust changes schemes and wants to bring in their own guys to fit them - so it does become somewhat self-fulfilling.  

 

Since the 1989 draft, of the 217 eligible players (meaning not counting draft picks since 2016 that are still on the team), we have only re-signed 30 of those players to 2nd contracts - 13.8%.  The most sobering truth of this number is that with the retirement of Kyle Williams, we currently have ZERO players on the roster that were drafted by the Bills and on a 2nd contract.  Hard to fathom, even with the emphasis on younger players in the new CBA.  It does appear that the current regime is trying to reverse that trend, but it takes a long time to build continuity and clear direction.

 

Breaking down positions - here's some additional detail:

 

QB - none since Jim Kelly & Frank Reich.  No need to belabor our lack of success in drafting & developing this position

RB - none since Thurman Thomas.  I know that RB is a fungible position, but how many times did we draft high only to lather, rinse, and repeat 3-4 years later?

WR - Eric Moulds, Josh Reed, Lee Evans, Roscoe Parrish, Stevie Johnson, and wait for it... Marcus Easley (!)

TE - Jay Riemersma

OL - Cordy Glenn, Eric Wood, Ruben Brown, and John Fina

D-Line - Marcell Dareus, Chris Kelsay, Ryan Denney, Aaron Schobel

LB - last ones were Sam Rogers, Marlo Perry, Mark Maddox & Marvcus Patton.  Long time ago, and not a star to be found there

DB - Aaron Williams, Leodis McKelvin, Terrance McGee, Nate Clements, Ken Irvin, Kurt Schulz, Henry Jones

 

Going back and looking at the guys we drafted but didn't re-sign, it always felt like we were either up against the cap, or didn't really value the guys that we had.  It's tough because you don't want to overpay for talent, but you then have to draft their replacements or end up overpaying in Free Agency anyways.  A look back at guys from previous drafts that we didn't re-sign:

 

2012 - Stephon Gilmore - big $, but should have been kept

2009 - Andy Levitre - got paid, but how much have we churned the line since then?  He's still in the league

2007 - Marshawn Lynch - yes, he had issues, but what did we really gain by drafting CJ Spiller in 2010

2007 - Paul Posluszny - not a great player, but ended up playing 11 years in the league

2006 - Donte Whitner - see previous comment

2003 - Willis McGahee - similar to Marshawn, another 11 year player in the league

2002 - Justin Bannan - never a great player, but bounced around as depth for 12 seasons

2001 - Ron Edwards - same comment, another 12 year vet

2000 - Sammy Morris - 12 years in the league - highly valued by the Pats on ST

1999 - Antoine Winfield - 14 seasons - think we should have kept him?

1997 - Marcellus Wiley - again, we were up against the cap at the time, but should have been kept

1994 - Jeff Burris - wanted too much money, but played 10 years

1993 - Thomas Smith - same comment as Burris

1993 - Corbin Lacina - never more than a stopgap starter, but played for 11 years

 

So here's to hoping that even if our most recent picks don't all end up as stars, that we continue to develop them, and maybe hang on to a few.  Depth and continuity are still to be valued, and hanging on to your own guys helps them know that they are valued by the team and not just counting the time until someone else pays them.

 

[Coach Tuesday]

Yup.  I said this around here a few days ago.  And it's not just because the players they draft aren't good (though that's part of it) - it's because they draft at non-premium positions like RB and RT which just don't make sense to extend.  You can easily fill those positions on the cheap in the FA market.  It's a fundamentally flawed approach to roster building, even more than poor scouting and development, that has caused this pattern.

 

And I'm concerned they've repeated themselves with this last draft.  Selecting Ford and Singletary at 2 and 3 were hits down the fairway for a GM who probably needed to think a bit bolder, but even worse, those are simply not premium positions and there is a good chance - like Shaq Lawson, a DE who can't rush the passer - that neither of them sees a second contract.

Edited May 1, 2019 by Coach Tuesday

[longtimebillsfan]

Nice work thank you.

 

An obvious omission is Andre Reed.

[mushypeaches]

13 minutes ago, longtimebillsfan said:

Nice work thank you.

 

An obvious omission is Andre Reed.

Yes - I went back to 1985 draft picks - only wanted to count those drafted from 1989 onward, as 1993 would have been the first year that they would have started receiving second contracts.  Also didn't count others such as Bruce Smith, Will Wolford, Nate Odomes, Keith McKeller, and Mark Pike - who got second contracts before the onset of modern free agency in 1993

[colin]

at first glance this blows my mind and makes me think no one really does wanna play in buffalo.

 

do we know how this compares to other teams?  % kept in that time and number of 2nd contract draftees on roster?

 

 

[mushypeaches]

1 minute ago, colin said:

at first glance this blows my mind and makes me think no one really does wanna play in buffalo.

 

do we know how this compares to other teams?  % kept in that time and number of 2nd contract draftees on roster?

 

 

 

I've given some thought to compiling this type of analysis, but would require a pretty big effort.  At least for the Bills, I know or can easily reference who we kept and why.

 

I don't think it has as much to do with not wanting to play in Buffalo as much as management not having the right strategy toward team building and/or constant turnover, and not wanting to overpay for commensurate talent & production.  

 

Players will stay if they're valued and paid

[longtimebillsfan]

14 minutes ago, mushypeaches said:

Yes - I went back to 1985 draft picks - only wanted to count those drafted from 1989 onward, as 1993 would have been the first year that they would have started receiving second contracts.  Also didn't count others such as Bruce Smith, Will Wolford, Nate Odomes, Keith McKeller, and Mark Pike - who got second contracts before the onset of modern free agency in 1993

Understand.

[billybob71]

Very telling analysis great job mushy

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 hours ago, mushypeaches said:

With this year's draft complete and everyone high on our choices, as well as a lot of the current regimes decisions over the past 2 years, I decided to delve into the Bills draft history over the past 30 or so years, just to remember the history of hits & misses, and try to think about why we've been largely stuck in the mud since the SB era.

 

One can analyze our draft history in lots of different ways, most of them leading to frustration, but I decided to look at how many of our draft picks over time received 2nd contracts from the team.  There are so many reasons why we haven't been successful, with mediocre drafting being one piece of the puzzle.  But along with having constant turnover in coaching staffs and philosophies, I'm willing to bet that we have one of the lowest percentages of re-signing our draft picks since the start of the modern Free Agency era (1993).  A lot of it is "chicken vs egg" - meaning that with turnover in regimes, the new braintrust changes schemes and wants to bring in their own guys to fit them - so it does become somewhat self-fulfilling.  

 

Since the 1989 draft, of the 217 eligible players (meaning not counting draft picks since 2016 that are still on the team), we have only re-signed 30 of those players to 2nd contracts - 13.8%.  The most sobering truth of this number is that with the retirement of Kyle Williams, we currently have ZERO players on the roster that were drafted by the Bills and on a 2nd contract.  Hard to fathom, even with the emphasis on younger players in the new CBA.  It does appear that the current regime is trying to reverse that trend, but it takes a long time to build continuity and clear direction.

 

Breaking down positions - here's some additional detail:

 

QB - none since Jim Kelly & Frank Reich.  No need to belabor our lack of success in drafting & developing this position

RB - none since Thurman Thomas.  I know that RB is a fungible position, but how many times did we draft high only to lather, rinse, and repeat 3-4 years later?

WR - Eric Moulds, Josh Reed, Lee Evans, Roscoe Parrish, Stevie Johnson, and wait for it... Marcus Easley (!)

TE - Jay Riemersma

OL - Cordy Glenn, Eric Wood, Ruben Brown, and John Fina

D-Line - Marcell Dareus, Chris Kelsay, Ryan Denney, Aaron Schobel

LB - last ones were Sam Rogers, Marlo Perry, Mark Maddox & Marvcus Patton.  Long time ago, and not a star to be found there

DB - Aaron Williams, Leodis McKelvin, Terrance McGee, Nate Clements, Ken Irvin, Kurt Schulz, Henry Jones

 

Going back and looking at the guys we drafted but didn't re-sign, it always felt like we were either up against the cap, or didn't really value the guys that we had.  It's tough because you don't want to overpay for talent, but you then have to draft their replacements or end up overpaying in Free Agency anyways.  A look back at guys from previous drafts that we didn't re-sign:

 

2012 - Stephon Gilmore - big $, but should have been kept

2009 - Andy Levitre - got paid, but how much have we churned the line since then?  He's still in the league

2007 - Marshawn Lynch - yes, he had issues, but what did we really gain by drafting CJ Spiller in 2010

2007 - Paul Posluszny - not a great player, but ended up playing 11 years in the league

2006 - Donte Whitner - see previous comment

2003 - Willis McGahee - similar to Marshawn, another 11 year player in the league

2002 - Justin Bannan - never a great player, but bounced around as depth for 12 seasons

2001 - Ron Edwards - same comment, another 12 year vet

2000 - Sammy Morris - 12 years in the league - highly valued by the Pats on ST

1999 - Antoine Winfield - 14 seasons - think we should have kept him?

1997 - Marcellus Wiley - again, we were up against the cap at the time, but should have been kept

1994 - Jeff Burris - wanted too much money, but played 10 years

1993 - Thomas Smith - same comment as Burris

1993 - Corbin Lacina - never more than a stopgap starter, but played for 11 years

 

So here's to hoping that even if our most recent picks don't all end up as stars, that we continue to develop them, and maybe hang on to a few.  Depth and continuity are still to be valued, and hanging on to your own guys helps them know that they are valued by the team and not just counting the time until someone else pays them.

 

 

Whats notable is we were always up against the cap based off of free agent acquisitions.  Which usually doesn't equate to wins.  

[whatdrought]

I did hear in a podcast today where the Bengals have the most homegrown talent on their roster with something like 36 players being guys they drafted/brought into the league... Doesn't always prove to be a metric of success. 

 

That being said, that list is pretty damning. Hopefully that trend shifts when we make Tre White the highest paid CB in the NFL (When he's the best in 2 years)

[416BillsFan]

Thanks for putting this together OP. Very indicative of the revolving door of GMs post Butler.

[Freddie's Dead]

You forgot Preston Brown, or are we giving McBeane a pass?

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Yup.  I said this around here a few days ago.  And it's not just because the players they draft aren't good (though that's part of it) - it's because they draft at non-premium positions like RB and RT which just don't make sense to extend.  You can easily fill those positions on the cheap in the FA market.  It's a fundamentally flawed approach to roster building, even more than poor scouting and development, that has caused this pattern.

 

And I'm concerned they've repeated themselves with this last draft.  Selecting Ford and Singletary at 2 and 3 were hits down the fairway for a GM who probably needed to think a bit bolder, but even worse, those are simply not premium positions and there is a good chance - like Shaq Lawson, a DE who can't rush the passer - that neither of them sees a second contract.

 

I totally agree with the premium positions point but I actually don't mind the Ford selection this year with the strengths or otherwise of this draft at the point we went on the clock in round 2 - although for it to work I think he has to be successful at RT. If he ends up inside at guard that does further damage to the positional value I think. 

 

The other factor for the Bills is the constant regime change. Take Stephon Gilmore as a classic example. Picked early in the draft. Premium position and played very well in 4 of his 5 seasons with the Bills. However, he was drafted by one GM, his 5th year option was extender by another and while that other was still notionaly in charge when they chose to let him walk we all know he wasnt really so another regime made the decision. He played for 3 Head Coaches in his 5 years here, and it was a 4th who made the decision not to retain him. In terms of defensive coordinators he played for basically 5 in 5 years:- Wannsted, Pettine, Schwartz, Thurman and defacto DC Rob Ryan in his final year. By the time the decision was being made a 6th defensive coordinator - Leslie Frazier - was on deck. With that much regime churn, coaching churn, coordinator churn (and that is without position coaches) it is little wonder our numbers are so low. 

 

I am hopeful this regime will be here for a fair few years to come.... certainly long enough to retain their first wave of drafted players: Tre White, Matt Milano, Dion Dawkins - all of whom I would expect the Bills to try and retain and hopefully Allen and Edmunds after that as well. 

 

 

Edited May 2, 2019 by GunnerBill

[Phil The Thrill]

9 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Yup.  I said this around here a few days ago.  And it's not just because the players they draft aren't good (though that's part of it) - it's because they draft at non-premium positions like RB and RT which just don't make sense to extend.  You can easily fill those positions on the cheap in the FA market.  It's a fundamentally flawed approach to roster building, even more than poor scouting and development, that has caused this pattern.

 

And I'm concerned they've repeated themselves with this last draft.  Selecting Ford and Singletary at 2 and 3 were hits down the fairway for a GM who probably needed to think a bit bolder, but even worse, those are simply not premium positions and there is a good chance - like Shaq Lawson, a DE who can't rush the passer - that neither of them sees a second contract.

 

Dont you think a big part of the problem is how the teams were built?  It seems like from a Cap situation, when players did perform, there were many times when the team would have loved to sign them but couldn’t pay their market value.  

[vincec]

16 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Yup.  I said this around here a few days ago.  And it's not just because the players they draft aren't good (though that's part of it) - it's because they draft at non-premium positions like RB and RT which just don't make sense to extend.  You can easily fill those positions on the cheap in the FA market.  It's a fundamentally flawed approach to roster building, even more than poor scouting and development, that has caused this pattern.

 

And I'm concerned they've repeated themselves with this last draft.  Selecting Ford and Singletary at 2 and 3 were hits down the fairway for a GM who probably needed to think a bit bolder, but even worse, those are simply not premium positions and there is a good chance - like Shaq Lawson, a DE who can't rush the passer - that neither of them sees a second contract.

Great post. I remember this same discussion when Andy Levitre was let go. The Bills didn't want to pay the market rate for a good OG because the position was easy to fill. Well, then why did you draft one in the second round if you weren't going to keep him if he became good?

Edited May 2, 2019 by vincec

[GunnerBill]

47 minutes ago, vincec said:

Great post. I remember this same discussion when Andy Levitre was let go. The Bills didn't want to pay the market rate for a good OG because the position was easy to fill. Well, then why did you draft one in the second round if you weren't going to keep him if he became good?

 

Again, with Levitre - regime change was an issue. Chan was a zone blocking scheme guy and Levitre is a very good zone blocker. As Levitre's deal came up Marrone had just taken over as Head Coach and wanted to much more of a power run game and they were then left asking not only do you want to pay big $$s to a non premium position but also do you want to pay big $$s for a guy in a non premium position to play in a scheme he is less of a fit for?

 

In the end the Titans did pay him big money and did try and use him in a power scheme in which he struggled (he wasn't bad as such he was just an average NFL guard being paid like a great one). They decided to cut their losses after two years and he wound up in Atlanta with Kyle Shanahan's zone stretch scheme, refound his best form and helped the Falcons make the Superbowl.

 

So yet again it is a combination of the two..... drafting too many non premium positions with early picks and then changing regimes so often that those guys don't fit for the money they want when it comes to extending them.

[WideRightRevenge]

Bottom line ... I believe the "process" assuming (better said hoping) they stay in place is savvy enough to resign their own players.  Pegula has shown he can be swayed to sign checks (see Darius contract ... ouch) ... I agree they should pull forward White and extend him out early.

[BarleyNY]

Thanks to the OP for a ton of work there. Yikes!  Those are not great results to say the least. 

[GunnerBill]

22 minutes ago, WideRightRevenge said:

Bottom line ... I believe the "process" assuming (better said hoping) they stay in place is savvy enough to resign their own players.  Pegula has shown he can be swayed to sign checks (see Darius contract ... ouch) ... I agree they should pull forward White and extend him out early.

 

They can't extend White until after this season. Players must play 3 years before the eligible for the extension. The downside of extending him before his 4th year is that at the moment Tre is slated to make $3.2m in 2020. If you extend him a year early you have an extra year of him being an expensive player as opposed to an inexpensive one. With a player like Tre as well you are not benefitting from tying him down before he "breaks out." I'm not a big believer in that anyway though, because as soon as a player does have a shock "break out" year they come back and renegotiate in any event so not sure that it ever saves you that much. So the benefit of extending Tre early is the essentially two fold:

 

1. You generate good will with the player. You are more likely to get a small home town discount by going to a player in the first offseason that the rules allow you to, telling him he is critical to your future and offering him a lot of money to stay a Bill than if you string him out and make it a protracted negotiation.

2. In terms of culture it sends a message to others in your own locker room and the players and agents of players to come: "If you perform in Buffalo they do the right thing and you get paid."

 

With what we know about this regime I can see point 2 of that being a significant factor for them. It is essentially the balance of that vs losing one year of a close to elite player at a cost of next to nothing. I'll be interested to see how the Bills handle the next offseason because I suspect they will also want to extend Milano and, if he has anything like a bounce back year, Dion Dawkins who will both be heading into contract years (whereas with Tre you have the extra leverage of the 5th year option). It will be the first test for this regime in terms of how they really want to build this thing longer term. I wouldn't be surprised if they tried to extend White before the end of 2020 training camp, but equally I can see the argument for delaying another year too.

[Bill from NYC]

18 hours ago, mushypeaches said:

 

DB - Aaron Williams, Leodis McKelvin, Terrance McGee, Nate Clements, Ken Irvin, Kurt Schulz, Henry Jones

 

 

I could very well be wrong but I do not think we re-signed Clements. Wasn't he franchised for 1 year?

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Bill from NYC said:

I could very well be wrong but I do not think we re-signed Clements. Wasn't he franchised for 1 year?

 

Yes he was.

[Bill from NYC]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes he was.

But not re-signed to a contract, correct?

[SoTier]

14 hours ago, whatdrought said:

I did hear in a podcast today where the Bengals have the most homegrown talent on their roster with something like 36 players being guys they drafted/brought into the league... Doesn't always prove to be a metric of success. 

 

That being said, that list is pretty damning. Hopefully that trend shifts when we make Tre White the highest paid CB in the NFL (When he's the best in 2 years)

 

Both Green Bay and Pittsburgh are notable for winning with homegrown talent.   Baltimore under Ozzie Newsome also had considerable success with heavy doses of drafted players who stayed through most of their careers.   I think the key to success with "your own" players is good drafting.  The Packers, Steelers, and Ravens have been good at drafting so that they have had lots of talent worth re-signing.  Cinci hasn't been as good at drafting as the other three teams, so their pool of homegrown talent isn't as good.

 

The Bills have been, at best, mediocre at drafting.   They have compounded their less than stellar drafting by failing to re-sign most of their best draftees or the UDFA players that they developed.    I disagree that regime change is primary reason for this constant regime change.   The Bills have had two owners since their inception: Ralph Wilson and the Pegulas.   They actually had only three different control regimes since Bill Polian left in 1993: John Butler, 1994-2000; Tom Donahoe, 2001-2005; Russ Brandon, 2006-2017.  Butler and Donahoe were traditional CEO/GMs.  Brandon was the "power behind the throne" who was second only to the owners in creating and implementing the team's philosophy since he essentially took over the team.  Dick Jauron (Marv Levy was a figurehead), Buddy Nix, Doug Whaley, and Sean McDermott were essentially talent scouts who marched to Brandon's orders.   The only big name HC that the Bills hired since the 1980s when Chuck Knox left was Rex Ryan.  All the others, including Marv Levy, were first time HCs or  mediocre former HCs looking for new gigs.  The swapping out of players every time a new HC was hired really didn't start in earnest until Brandon took over the team ... about the time that the Bills totally embraced putting profit ahead of winning.

 

The best move that the Pegulas have made towards building a winning team is getting rid of Brandon IMO.   I think the 2017 draft was clearly a draft with Brandon's imprint on it (passing on a QB to take a DB to replace the top notch DB the Bills allowed to leave in FA).  2018 and 2019 were both significantly different which is a hopeful sign going forward.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Bill from NYC said:

But not re-signed to a contract, correct?

 

Correct. Franchised then walked. In fairness I think the Bills wanted to keep Clements... he wanted to get away.

2 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

 I disagree that regime change is primary reason for this constant regime change.   The Bills have had two owners since their inception: Ralph Wilson and the Pegulas.   They actually had only three different control regimes since Bill Polian left in 1993: John Butler, 1994-2000; Tom Donahoe, 2001-2005; Russ Brandon, 2006-2017.  Butler and Donahoe were traditional CEO/GMs.  Brandon was the "power behind the throne" who was second only to the owners in creating and implementing the team's philosophy since he essentially took over the team.  Dick Jauron (Marv Levy was a figurehead), Buddy Nix, Doug Whaley, and Sean McDermott were essentially talent scouts who marched to Brandon's orders.   The only big name HC that the Bills hired since the 1980s when Chuck Knox left was Rex Ryan.  All the others, including Marv Levy, were first time HCs or  mediocre former HCs looking for new gigs.  The swapping out of players every time a new HC was hired really didn't start in earnest until Brandon took over the team ... about the time that the Bills totally embraced putting profit ahead of winning.

 

The best move that the Pegulas have made towards building a winning team is getting rid of Brandon IMO.   I think the 2017 draft was clearly a draft with Brandon's imprint on it (passing on a QB to take a DB to replace the top notch DB the Bills allowed to leave in FA).  2018 and 2019 were both significantly different which is a hopeful sign going forward.

 

 

 

Firstly I didn't say regime change was the primary reason. I think it, along with bad allocation of draft resources are the two most significant reasons. The idea that Russ Brandon was drafting players for the Bills has been gone over many times though. He wasn't. Even when he was GM he wasn't. The idea that Sean McDermott was a patsie to Russ Brandon in the 2017 draft is even more ridiculous.

[SoCal Deek]

Thanks for doing this! I believe it’s mostly cause and effect. When you’re looking at a team with only one playoff appearance in twenty years this isn’t all the surprising. Why keep players who’ve proven that they’re not getting it done? With that said, some of this is the cause and effect of how the league has been reorganized with a hard salary cap and suppressed rookie contracts. Every team is forced to look at their fifth year guys and say ‘is this dude really worth it’? They rarely are! While the rookie salary cap makes sense for the veterans who get beyond year four, it also has the unexpected consequence of creating a Fifth Year blood bath.

[BuffaloBill]

The churn is also correlated with changes in coaches and GM’s.  New regimes usually bring different philosophies and therefore they look at the “fit” of players very differently.  Look at the current roster flip where I believe the current number of remaining players from the Whaley / Ryan years is five and that number may very well come down once training camp and the pre-season is over.

 

I also don’t know that churn across the league is so unusual.  However, what the Bills have not had is a consistent “core” since the Polian / Levy era which was before the modern FA period.  Look at the cheats* they have turned their roster many times without too much pain and difficulty.  With Brady as their “core” and a stable coaching situation they have been able to swap other players in and out relatively easily.

[BarleyNY]

54 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Correct. Franchised then walked. In fairness I think the Bills wanted to keep Clements... he wanted to get away.

 

Firstly I didn't say regime change was the primary reason. I think it, along with bad allocation of draft resources are the two most significant reasons. The idea that Russ Brandon was drafting players for the Bills has been gone over many times though. He wasn't. Even when he was GM he wasn't. The idea that Sean McDermott was a patsie to Russ Brandon in the 2017 draft is even more ridiculous.

 

Totally agree that those are the two biggest issues: Regime/scheme change and generally poor drafting.  The former is totally on Pegula.  He needs to have an overarching philosophy for the team that the coaching staffs have to adhere to in order to even be considered.  Let’s hope he’s learned that because I like where we are in that in general. 

 

As for drafting, I do like Beane and he certainly knows what fits McDermott’s needs so I think we will be okay there.  I’m a lot less enamored by his moves in FA, but what I’ve seen to date might just be a short term tactic and not a general strategy.  I’ll wait and see on that. 

[Chandler#81]

Thanks mushy. 30 is a lot high than I imagined. We’re better’n I thought..