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Joe Marino (Locked on Bills): Two names he is hearing in 1st for Bills: Jonah Williams, DK Metcalf


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2 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

The sample size for that success is very small.

 

He had 26 catches last year and 20 of those 26 came against TTU?, SIU, Kent and ULM.  6 combined against Alabama, LSU and Arkansas.  I don’t know who TTU is, but I know Southern Illinois, Kent and Louisiana Monroe are not good competition against and SEC team.

Agreed and I remember Richie Lucas.

I listen to Chris Simms regularly because his understanding of the game goes way beyond most fans...he's really good at watching the film and letting you know what's really happening and I learn quite a lot. A line he always throws out there when talking about DK is "damn, sometimes I wondered if their coaching staff was trying to lose the game. It's like they don't know DK Metcalf and AJ Brown are their best players." He also takes issue with their QB from the tape.

 

I've seen Yolo here on The Wall talk about how you have to be careful with production with college wide receivers because it's a dependent position- the system, playcalls, quarterback and O-line need to do their job for WRs to have a chance. It might be the most dependent position and therefore is the position most requiring CONTEXT in an evaluation rather than just statsheet scouting. It really takes grinding the tape (which I myself do not do) to get a true picture.

 

Lastly, we might want to keep in mind that DK was 20 years old this season. Awhile back someone posted comparisons of DK's production at age 19 and 20 compared to Julio Jones (I think he was included), along with other WRs, at that same young age...and lo and behold, in this context Metcalf's production actually stacked right up. A lot of college players are a good deal older than that, for example Robert Foster is a year out and turns 25 in 2 weeks.

 

With his size and not only speed but crazy acceleration, along with nuanced technique to beat press, he can be a nightmare for CBs. The Bills don't have anyone like that. And not every WR wins the same way...Mike Evans doesn't have to run whip routes and triple breaks. Neither does DK

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1 minute ago, 2018 Our Year For Sure said:

I listen to Chris Simms regularly because his understanding of the game goes way beyond most fans...he's really good at watching the film and letting you know what's really happening and I learn quite a lot. A line he always throws out there when talking about DK is "damn, sometimes I wondered if their coaching staff was trying to lose the game. It's like they don't know DK Metcalf and AJ Brown are their best players." He also takes issue with their QB from the tape.

 

I've seen Yolo here on The Wall talk about how you have to be careful with production with college wide receivers because it's a dependent position- the system, playcalls, quarterback and O-line need to do their job for WRs to have a chance. It might be the most dependent position and therefore is the position most requiring CONTEXT in an evaluation rather than just statsheet scouting. It really takes grinding the tape (which I myself do not do) to get a true picture.

 

Lastly, we might want to keep in mind that DK was 20 years old this season. Awhile back someone posted comparisons of DK's production at age 19 and 20 compared to Julio Jones (I think he was included), along with other WRs, at that same young age...and lo and behold, in this context Metcalf's production actually stacked right up. A lot of college players are a good deal older than that, for example Robert Foster is a year out and turns 25 in 2 weeks.

 

With his size and not only speed but crazy acceleration, along with nuanced technique to beat press, he can be a nightmare for CBs. The Bills don't have anyone like that. And not every WR wins the same way...Mike Evans doesn't have to run whip routes and triple breaks. Neither does DK

It’s so true - WR are often drafted on traits vs production because of the college QB variable. It’s extremely difficult to evaluate and project to the next level because they are so dependent on the QB. Film is one thing - you can at least see effort, routes, separation - stats are another. Stats are for college awards, not draft position. 

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19 hours ago, Chemical said:

 

Dk was considered the top WR by many before the combine AND before the season. Combine warrior label is lazy analysis. 

 

Hey Chemical .. reading your threads .. you like DK ... more power to you .. but my "Lazy Analysis" .. appears to be supported by a few others.

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2832576-all-sizzle-no-steak-dk-metcalf-is-a-1st-round-flop-waiting-to-happen

 

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8 minutes ago, WideRightRevenge said:

 

Hey Chemical .. reading your threads .. you like DK ... more power to you .. but my "Lazy Analysis" .. appears to be supported by a few others.

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2832576-all-sizzle-no-steak-dk-metcalf-is-a-1st-round-flop-waiting-to-happen

 

For every one of these negative reviews you find I can give you five positive ones.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-why-dk-metcalf-is-pffs-top-wide-receiver-in-the-2019-nfl-draft

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1 minute ago, the skycap said:

For every one of these negative reviews you find I can give you five positive ones.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-why-dk-metcalf-is-pffs-top-wide-receiver-in-the-2019-nfl-draft

 

It's a beauty pageant in the 1st round .. many different opinions .. mine .. I just prefer other options than DK (and really drafting a WR at 9 vs. DL or OL) and have flashbacks to other WR's who set combine records. 

 

Wide receivers

  • John Ross, Washington, 2017: Ross is football’s fastest runner since laser timing, with a 4.22. He somehow did it while hurting himself.
  • Chris Conley, Georgia, 2015: A bigger WR at 6’2, 213, Conley dropped a 4.35-second 40 and then tied the all-positions vert record (1.5 inches ahead of the next WR) and would’ve done the same in the broad, if not for UConn DB Byron Jones entering orbit. He’d been considered a late-rounder until this, then went to the Chiefs in the third.
  • Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland, 2009: At 6’2, 210 pounds, he’s the biggest player to ever officially crack 4.3.
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23 minutes ago, WideRightRevenge said:

 

Hey Chemical .. reading your threads .. you like DK ... more power to you .. but my "Lazy Analysis" .. appears to be supported by a few others.

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2832576-all-sizzle-no-steak-dk-metcalf-is-a-1st-round-flop-waiting-to-happen

 

 

Oh you got your opinion from someone else? Even lazier!

 

ive seen that article. He glosses over the 2018 per-game production by saying he only had this many yards then got hurt. 

 

A lot of opinions on this thread are nuanced and informed on both sides. Don’t come in here with a two word dismissal of a player that has already been disputed back and forth many times over then try to say it’s not lazy by posting a link to bleacher report with no additional insight. 

7 minutes ago, WideRightRevenge said:

 

It's a beauty pageant in the 1st round .. many different opinions .. mine .. I just prefer other options than DK (and really drafting a WR at 9 vs. DL or OL) and have flashbacks to other WR's who set combine records. 

 

Wide receivers

  • John Ross, Washington, 2017: Ross is football’s fastest runner since laser timing, with a 4.22. He somehow did it while hurting himself.
  • Chris Conley, Georgia, 2015: A bigger WR at 6’2, 213, Conley dropped a 4.35-second 40 and then tied the all-positions vert record (1.5 inches ahead of the next WR) and would’ve done the same in the broad, if not for UConn DB Byron Jones entering orbit. He’d been considered a late-rounder until this, then went to the Chiefs in the third.
  • Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland, 2009: At 6’2, 210 pounds, he’s the biggest player to ever officially crack 4.3.

 

None of these players were considered first round picks before the combine. Metcalf was considered the top WR before last season and was on pace for elite production THEN he ran a 4.33 (somehow that’s a negative for some people)

Edited by Chemical
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Wow ... Chemical .. Eat a snickers ... let me get this straight ... you are indicating you can't read (or watch) mock drafts on TV this week and none have DK drafted by the Bills at 9 (Mel/Todd, NFL Network, etc.) in order to form an opinion ... do you sit in a cave without the internet and look skyward to form your opinions??

 

I say my preference to go elsewhere vs drafting your apparently favorite player of all time at #9, and reference his combine performance.  Unlike others I'm didn't think I had to type longwinded detail beyond that. 

 

Lighten up Francis

 

image.png.3c3231aa7f45b651e5809b9b70b6122b.png

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5 hours ago, WideRightRevenge said:

Wow ... Chemical .. Eat a snickers ... let me get this straight ... you are indicating you can't read (or watch) mock drafts on TV this week and none have DK drafted by the Bills at 9 (Mel/Todd, NFL Network, etc.) in order to form an opinion ... do you sit in a cave without the internet and look skyward to form your opinions??

 

I say my preference to go elsewhere vs drafting your apparently favorite player of all time at #9, and reference his combine performance.  Unlike others I'm didn't think I had to type longwinded detail beyond that. 

 

Lighten up Francis

 

image.png.3c3231aa7f45b651e5809b9b70b6122b.png

I don't think Mel/Todd/Bucky really did their homework on the Bills and Josh Allen. Allen strength is throwing the ball long, to the outside. Was weaker throwing to the middle of the field. Why would they target a TE to help Josh Allen? The Ed Oliver mock is basically to replace All Pro Kyle Williams. Yes, they need to address that position, but it's ALL ABOUT ALLEN. I like Khalen Saunders in the second and moving back up or acquiring a pick in rd 2 to get Zach Allen to address the defense. IMO, they can't pass on Metcalf.

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8 minutes ago, the skycap said:

I don't think Mel/Todd/Bucky really did their homework on the Bills and Josh Allen. Allen strength is throwing the ball long, to the outside. Was weaker throwing to the middle of the field. Why would they target a TE to help Josh Allen? The Ed Oliver mock is basically to replace All Pro Kyle Williams. Yes, they need to address that position, but it's ALL ABOUT ALLEN. I like Khalen Saunders in the second and moving back up or acquiring a pick in rd 2 to get Zach Allen to address the defense. IMO, they can't pass on Metcalf.

If you know that Allen succeeded throwing deep and outside the numbers, guess who else does? Every single defensive coordinator in the league. And guess what the first thing they will scheme to take away is? The throws that he was good at.

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2 hours ago, JM57 said:

If you know that Allen succeeded throwing deep and outside the numbers, guess who else does? Every single defensive coordinator in the league. And guess what the first thing they will scheme to take away is? The throws that he was good at.

He DID succeed doing just that last season, didn't he?

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47 minutes ago, the skycap said:

He DID succeed doing just that last season, didn't he?

Where are we going with this?

 

You said TE doesn't make sense because Allen succeeded with deep and outside the numbers throws. I said yeah, and now the coordinators in the league have the film on him and they'll game plan to take those throws away, so what now?

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The first Ole Miss receiver off the board should be A.J. Brown, who led the Rebels with 85 catches for 1,320 yards. But that doesn’t mean Metcalf isn’t worthy of a high pick. Steve Palazzolo of Pro Football Focus makes a great case for Metcalf using advanced stats and plain logic. Metcalf averaged 2.83 receiving yards per route run last season, which isn’t as good as Brown (3.01) but better than Arizona State’s N’Keal Harry, a player everyone agrees was an excellent college receiver. Palazzolo also points out that even without great lateral mobility, Metcalf’s skill set remains extremely valuable. Assuming a team has other receivers capable of running crisp short routes—it’s the NFL; most do—Metcalf could still help by going straight down the field on every play. The corners who can run with him can’t outmuscle him, and the corners who can compete physically can’t outrun him. This means he can either get open or require enough help that he stretches the defense and allows more room for those teammates working underneath.

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1 hour ago, the skycap said:

The first Ole Miss receiver off the board should be A.J. Brown, who led the Rebels with 85 catches for 1,320 yards. But that doesn’t mean Metcalf isn’t worthy of a high pick. Steve Palazzolo of Pro Football Focus makes a great case for Metcalf using advanced stats and plain logic. Metcalf averaged 2.83 receiving yards per route run last season, which isn’t as good as Brown (3.01) but better than Arizona State’s N’Keal Harry, a player everyone agrees was an excellent college receiver. Palazzolo also points out that even without great lateral mobility, Metcalf’s skill set remains extremely valuable. Assuming a team has other receivers capable of running crisp short routes—it’s the NFL; most do—Metcalf could still help by going straight down the field on every play. The corners who can run with him can’t outmuscle him, and the corners who can compete physically can’t outrun him. This means he can either get open or require enough help that he stretches the defense and allows more room for those teammates working underneath.

 

 

Here's the analytics I can't get out of my mind concerning DK...

 

He's 6-3 3/8 - 228 - 4.33 Speed - 40.5 vertical - 27 Reps 

 

The average NFL CB is 5-11- 195 - 4.48 Speed - 36.25 Vertical - 15 Reps

 

Now...Numbers mean nothing unless you can apply them on the field...But those numbers are exactly why when DK was on the field...He was dominating...

 

You can't teach what he's got...You can teach what he's not yet...As long as you're not looking for him to be Cole Beasley...?

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2 minutes ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

Sure...Sure he does...?

 

Against UL-Monroe!!!   

 

Wow, I'm sure he'll see a lot of players at that level in the NFL on Sunday's...

 

(Don't like him, don't want him and will cry if they pick him)

 

 

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15 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

 

Somehow, Metcalf's stock seems to have slipped in the last couple weeks.  Funny, I don't seem to recall Ol' Miss playing any games during that period.  Did he get injured?  Arrested?

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Just now, Lurker said:

Against UL-Monroe!!!   

 

Wow, I'm sure he'll see a lot of players at that level in the NFL on Sunday's...

 

(Don't like him, don't want him and will cry if they pick him)

 

 

 

So...He turns slower based on the competition? His athletic skills change due to who he is on the field with?...

 

Look at the play...Does that look like someone who is turning like an 18 wheeler in a cul-de-sac?

 

Good grief...?

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2 minutes ago, Lurker said:

Against UL-Monroe!!!   

 

Wow, I'm sure he'll see a lot of players at that level in the NFL on Sunday's...

 

(Don't like him, don't want him and will cry if they pick him)

 

 

Maybe you should have a tiny bottle on hand to collect the tears like a Roman emperor. Personally, I like the fella. If this low-balling gets him to drop to where we can move up from 40 to get him, all the better.

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5 minutes ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

So...He turns slower based on the competition? His athletic skills change due to who he is on the field with?...

 

Look at the play...Does that look like someone who is turning like an 18 wheeler in a cul-de-sac?

 

Good grief...?

 

Plays like King Kong against lesser competition, like Jane versus real competition...

 

2017 Game Logs

  Receiving
Rk Date School   Opponent   Rec Yds Avg TD
  12 Games         39 646 16.6 7
1 2017-09-02 Mississippi   South Alabama W 8 84 10.5 0
2 2017-09-09 Mississippi   Tennessee-Martin W 5 37 7.4 1
3 2017-09-16 Mississippi @ California L 3 125 41.7 1
4 2017-09-30 Mississippi @ Alabama L 3 46 15.3 0
5 2017-10-07 Mississippi @ Auburn L 4 28 7.0 2
6 2017-10-14 Mississippi   Vanderbilt W 2 37 18.5 0
7 2017-10-21 Mississippi   Louisiana State L 1 15 15.0 0
8 2017-10-28 Mississippi   Arkansas L 4 107 26.8 0
9 2017-11-04 Mississippi @ Kentucky W 5 83 16.6 2
10 2017-11-11 Mississippi   Louisiana W 1 7 7.0 0
11 2017-11-18 Mississippi   Texas A&M L 1 10 10.0 0
12 2017-11-23 Mississippi @ Mississippi State W 2 67 33.5 1

 

2018 Game Logs 

  Receiving
Rk Date School   Opponent   Rec Yds Avg TD
  7 Games         26 569 21.9 5
1 2018-09-01 Mississippi N Texas Tech W 4 81 20.3 1
2 2018-09-08 Mississippi   Southern Illinois W 7 93 13.3 1
3 2018-09-15 Mississippi   Alabama L 2 92 46.0 1
4 2018-09-22 Mississippi   Kent State W 5 102 20.4 1
5 2018-09-29 Mississippi @ Louisiana State L 3 37 12.3 0
6 2018-10-06 Mississippi   Louisiana-Monroe W 4 115 28.8 1
7 2018-10-13 Mississippi @ Arkansas W 1 49 49.0 0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, mannc said:

Somehow, Metcalf's stock seems to have slipped in the last couple weeks.  Funny, I don't seem to recall Ol' Miss playing any games during that period.  Did he get injured?  Arrested?

 

 

I think his stock is moving more toward where it should be for the league as a whole.    He's not a prospect for everyone.   And every draft observer knows that the position that most often surprises for players going later than expected now is WR.    We've had a bunch of drafts where there were projected first round WR's who didn't start coming off the board until round 2.     In terms of volume it's like RB used to be.........a lot of numbers of capable WR's.   Capable is fine if you have Matt Ryan or Brady or Phil Rivers.   If you are tryna elevate a young Goff, Wentz or Allen type then you need a stud to open up the field.   DK is just a perfect match for Allen.   He's not a "value" at #9........but he probably doesn't fall to #40 either.

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1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

I think his stock is moving more toward where it should be for the league as a whole.    He's not a prospect for everyone.   And every draft observer knows that the position that most often surprises for players going later than expected now is WR.    We've had a bunch of drafts where there were projected first round WR's who didn't start coming off the board until round 2.     In terms of volume it's like RB used to be.........a lot of numbers of capable WR's.   Capable is fine if you have Matt Ryan or Brady or Phil Rivers.   If you are tryna elevate a young Goff, Wentz or Allen type then you need a stud to open up the field.   DK is just a perfect match for Allen.   He's not a "value" at #9........but he probably doesn't fall to #40 either.

Agree: Metcalf's skill set is well matched to Allen's strengths. It would be nice if they could move back, pick up another pick and still get Metcalf (if they want him) in the mid 1st round range. I don't believe he drops much past that.

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27 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

LOL!    Southern Illinois, Kent State and Louisiana-Monroe...now there's a murderer's row of opponents.   

 

I mean...WTF do you want him to do schedule as well? ?

 

One TD vs Alabama, 2 vs Auburn, 2 vs Kentucky, one vs Miss St, 125 yds vs Cal with a TD, 107 yds vs Arkansas in 2017 and one catch for 49 yds when he got hurt, a TD vs FSU in his only catch as a Freshman...

 

He was a Red Shirt Soph who got hurt...Twice...He played who he played and when he played he was very good...

 

I get that you don't like the kid...Fine and noted...We'll see...?

 

 

Edited by KOKBILLS
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8 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

If we somehow get DK in the 2nd... well Cbus is in for a treat #nakedYolo

 

Regardless of who the Bills pick in the 2nd round it will be someone that somebody projected as a first rounder.

 

There are always about 75-80 of those so your chances of getting 2 picking early in rounds one and two are good.:thumbsup:

 

I remember TSW being so ecstatic about Chris Kelsay "falling" to the Bills in round 2!  Hopefully the celebration will be more warranted this time.   Bring on Da King!

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5 minutes ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

I mean...WTF do you want him to do schedule as well?

 

One TD vs Alabama, 2 vs Auburn, 2 vs Kentucky, one vs Miss St, 125 yds vs Cal with a TD, 107 yds vs Arkansas in 2017 and one catch for 49 yds when he got hurt, a TD vs FSU in his only catch as a Freshman...

 

He was a Red Shirt Soph who got hurt...Twice...He played who he played and when he played he was very good...

 

I get that you don't like the kid...Fine and noted...We'll see...?

 

 

Also had a lot of competition for touches and a cr@ppy QB throwing too him... 


But clearly, as history has shown to be the case 100% of the time, college production dictates pro production.... ?

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38 minutes ago, mannc said:

Somehow, Metcalf's stock seems to have slipped in the last couple weeks.  Funny, I don't seem to recall Ol' Miss playing any games during that period.  Did he get injured?  Arrested?

 

If he's sliding...And I'm not convinced he is...But if...It's because of the injuries and the injuries alone...

 

Anyone who thinks it's because of his play, the player he is, or a cone drill is kidding themselves...?

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1 minute ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

If he's sliding...And I'm not convinced he is...But if...It's because of the injuries and the injuries alone...

 

Anyone who thinks it's because of his play, the player he is, or a cone drill is kidding themselves...?

I'll be very surprised if he slips out of the top 15.  I get that he's not a totally clean prospect, but he's the clear no. 1 WR with huge upside and those guys tend to get pushed up the board, not down.  Offense is still the name of the game in today's NFL. 

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3 minutes ago, mannc said:

I'll be very surprised if he slips out of the top 15.  I get that he's not a totally clean prospect, but he's the clear no. 1 WR with huge upside and those guys tend to get pushed up the board, not down.  Offense is still the name of the game in today's NFL. 

 

Exactly...

 

Like I said earlier...Average NFL CB is 5-11 - 195 with 4.48 speed, a 36" vertical, and 16 reps on the bench...

 

Good luck to the average NFL CB who has to cover a healthy DK Metcalf...Because a healthy DK Metcalf can absolutely ball out...

 

That's all I'm saying...Good luck...?

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17 minutes ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

I mean...WTF do you want him to do schedule as well? ?

 

One TD vs Alabama, 2 vs Auburn, 2 vs Kentucky, one vs Miss St, 125 yds vs Cal with a TD, 107 yds vs Arkansas in 2017 and one catch for 49 yds when he got hurt, a TD vs FSU in his only catch as a Freshman...

 

He was a Red Shirt Soph who got hurt...Twice...He played who he played and when he played he was very good...

 

I get that you don't like the kid...Fine and noted...We'll see...?

 

 

 

One TD against Bama on the first play of the game, then one more catch in garbage time (lost 62-7).

The two catches vs. Auburn were also garbage time (they were losing 38-3 on the first, 41-10 on the second).  Probably facing the Tigers' freshman and sophs at that point.

Mississippi State was one catch for 63 yards and one for four.   That seems about how this guy rolls.

 

He's the Mike Mamula of WRs, IMO...

 

 

 

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